This document describes applying the "abcd" monthly water balance model to three catchment regions in the United States to assess the model's feasibility in different climate regions. The model was able to adequately simulate streamflow for two catchments in warm, humid regions but was not able to simulate a catchment dominated by snowfall. Model parameters were calibrated for one catchment and applied successfully to another similar catchment, demonstrating potential for regionalization. However, the model requires modifications to account for snow dynamics to be effective in snow-dominated regions.
New Approach of Prediction of Sidoarjo Hot Mudflow Disastered Area Based on P...Waqas Tariq
A new approach of prediction of Sidoarjo hot mudflow disastered area based on cellular automata with probabilistic adjustment for minimizing prediction errors is proposed. Sidoarjo hot mudflow has specific characteristics such as plane and complex area, huge mud plumes, high viscosity and surface temperature changes, so that it needs combined approaches of slow debris flow, and material changes caused by viscous fluid and thermal changes. Some deterministic approaches can not show the high state changes. This paper presents a new approach of cellular automata using probabilistic state changing to simulate hot mudflow spreading. The model was calibrated with the time series of topological maps. The experimental results show new inundated areas that are identified as high risk areas where are covered by mud. It is also show that the proposed probabilistic cellular automata approach works well for prediction of hot mudflow spreading areas much accurate than the existing conventional methods.
Projection of future Temperature and Precipitation for Jhelum river basin in ...IJERA Editor
In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) for obtaining projections of mean monthly temperature and precipitation for Jhelum river basin. Precipitation and temperature data are the most frequently used forcing terms in hydrological models. However, the available General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are widely used nowadays to simulate future climate scenarios, do not provide those variables to the need of the models. The purpose of this study is therefore, to apply a statistical downscaling method and assess its strength in reproducing current climate and project future climate. Regression based downscaling technique was usedtodownscaletheCGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 GCMpredictionsoftheA1B scenario for the Jhelum river basin located in India. The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model shows an increasing trend in temperature in the study area until the end of the 21st century. The average annual temperature showed an increase of 2.37°, 1.50°C and 2.02°C respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century under A1B scenario. The total annual precipitation decreased by 30.27%, 30.58°C and 36.53% respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century in A1B scenario using MLR technique. The performance of the linear multiple regression models was evaluated based on several statistical performance indicators.
New Approach of Prediction of Sidoarjo Hot Mudflow Disastered Area Based on P...Waqas Tariq
A new approach of prediction of Sidoarjo hot mudflow disastered area based on cellular automata with probabilistic adjustment for minimizing prediction errors is proposed. Sidoarjo hot mudflow has specific characteristics such as plane and complex area, huge mud plumes, high viscosity and surface temperature changes, so that it needs combined approaches of slow debris flow, and material changes caused by viscous fluid and thermal changes. Some deterministic approaches can not show the high state changes. This paper presents a new approach of cellular automata using probabilistic state changing to simulate hot mudflow spreading. The model was calibrated with the time series of topological maps. The experimental results show new inundated areas that are identified as high risk areas where are covered by mud. It is also show that the proposed probabilistic cellular automata approach works well for prediction of hot mudflow spreading areas much accurate than the existing conventional methods.
Projection of future Temperature and Precipitation for Jhelum river basin in ...IJERA Editor
In this paper, downscaling models are developed using a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) for obtaining projections of mean monthly temperature and precipitation for Jhelum river basin. Precipitation and temperature data are the most frequently used forcing terms in hydrological models. However, the available General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are widely used nowadays to simulate future climate scenarios, do not provide those variables to the need of the models. The purpose of this study is therefore, to apply a statistical downscaling method and assess its strength in reproducing current climate and project future climate. Regression based downscaling technique was usedtodownscaletheCGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 GCMpredictionsoftheA1B scenario for the Jhelum river basin located in India. The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model shows an increasing trend in temperature in the study area until the end of the 21st century. The average annual temperature showed an increase of 2.37°, 1.50°C and 2.02°C respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century under A1B scenario. The total annual precipitation decreased by 30.27%, 30.58°C and 36.53% respectively for CGCM3, HadCM3 and Echam5 models over 21st century in A1B scenario using MLR technique. The performance of the linear multiple regression models was evaluated based on several statistical performance indicators.
Assessing the ability of SWAT as a water quality model in the Lake Victoria b...Timo Brussée
There is a need for a water quality model for use in the Lake Victoria basin countries in East-Africa. The
region is characterised by data scarcity, a tropical climate and riverine, lacustrine tidal wetlands which form
an important buffer to riverine pollution of the lake. These characteristics of the basin form a challenge for
water quality models. The objective is to state the strengths and weaknesses of a potential water quality
model under these challenging conditions. This objective is executed with the soil water assessment tool
(SWAT) in a catchment of the Lake Victoria Basin as pilot area. The pilot area of the Mara river basin is
hydrologically complex containing tropical and plantation forest, savanna, grasslands, bi-annual agriculture,
shrublands and wetlands. It has varied soil types and bi-annual rain seasons
The study consist of literature research and flow simulation of the transboundary Mara river basin. The
model study aims to characterise the hydrology in the pilot area. The study includes a thorough analysis of
rainfall, stage and flow data. Model preparation steps include the use of weighted-area rainfall estimation
methods, climate model data and empirical derivation of soil input parameters. Discharge calibration
methods include multi-site calibration, by making use of an alternative objective function statistic for the
commonly used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) called the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). The literature study
targets previous flow and water quality studies done in tropical or wetland areas, thereby looking to see how
these studies adapted to hydrological modelling with SWAT in tropical or wetland areas, and why theses
adaptions were made. The literature research also includes a comparison of wetland processes in SWAT
with the physical, biological and chemical processes as described in previous studies.
The Mara river basin flow simulation gave a satisfactory model performance for two out of three calibration
sites, thereby being able to give preliminary outputs on water-balance and other flow characteristics. During
research, a number of model, knowledge and data gaps were found to be critical for better understanding
the hydrological and water quality system workings in the Lake Victoria and Mara river basin. From the
model and literature study it is concluded that several issues on data scarcity and hydrological model
processes in the tropics can be overcome. These do not necessarily decrease model performance or
uncertainty in the SWAT model. However, wetland processes are oversimplified in SWAT. Modification and
coupled SWAT models yet have not been able to provide an alternative to the default model that adequately
represents the main flow, sediment and nutrients processes and fluxes that are present in Mara’s wetlands.
Disaggregation of Annual to daily Streamflows: A lineardeterministic methodIOSRJAP
In this study, a linear deterministic methodis applied to disaggregate streamflow from annual to daily data inunregulated stations located on the Kızılırmak river in Turkey. To disaggregate annual streamflows to the daily flow at the target station (TS), annual counterparts at the source station (SS) were identified depending on the minimum error criteria that is estimated based on the volume of three-year time window. Then, daily streamflow indexes at SS were calculated to disaggregate annual to daily streamflow at TS through the process. The same steps are replicated to disaggregate monthly streamflow to the daily flow for the purpose of comparison between the two methods. The results are well represents daily streamflow at two methods inquiry comparing to observe data, and also maintain the time series statistical characteristics and mass equilibrium. The comparative results suggest that the monthly to daily disaggregation method perform better than annual to the daily disaggregation method. The daily streamflow generated in this study can be used in the future research for water resources planning and management.
The Development of a Catchment Management Modelling System for the Googong Re...GavanThomas
A scenario assessment model to assist the end-user in determining priorities for a series of agreed management prescriptions that can be enacted through controls on existing landuse
Streamflow simulation using radar-based precipitation applied to the Illinois...Alireza Safari
This paper describes the application of a spatially distributed hydrological model WetSpa (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere) using radar-based rainfall data provide by the United States Hydrology Laboratory of NOAA's National Weather Service for a distributed model intercomparison project. The model is applied to the
river basin above Tahlequah hydrometry station with 30-m spatial resolution and one hour time--step for a total simulation period of 6 years. Rainfall inputs are derived from radar. The distributed model parameters are based on an extensive database of watershed characteristics available for the region, including digital maps of DEM, soil type, and land use. The model is calibrated and validated on part of the river flow records. The simulated hydrograph shows a good correspondence with observation (Nash efficiency coeffiecient >80%, indicating that the model is able to simulate the relevant hydrologic processes in the basin accurately.
Application of GIS and MODFLOW to Ground Water Hydrology- A ReviewIJERA Editor
Groundwater is one of the most valuable natural resources, which supports human health, economic
development and ecological diversity. Due to over exploitation, the ground water systems are affected and
require management to maintain the conditions of ground water resources within acceptable limits. With the
development of computers and advances in information technology, efficient techniques for water management
has evolved. The main intent of the paper is to present a comprehensive review on application of GIS
(Geographic Information System) followed by coupling with MODFLOW package for ground water
management and development. Two major areas are discussed stating GIS applications in ground water
hydrology. (i) GIS based subsurface flow and pollution modelling (ii) Selection of artificial recharge sites.
Although the use of these techniques in groundwater studies has rapidly increased since last decade the sucess
rate is very limited. Based on this review , it is concluded that integation of GIS and MODFLOW have great
potential to revolutionize the monitoring and management of vital ground water resources in the future.
Planning for water sensitive communities: the need for a bottom up systems ap...Michael Barry
This paper was prepared by myself and Dr Peter Coombes of Urban Water Cycle Solutions and accepted under peer review for inclusion in the WSUD 2018 conference in Perth, February 2018. It describes how the use of top down average potable water demands in network analyses can generate unreliable predictions of water security and water distribution patterns. In contrast, the use of highly resolved bottom up analysis is shown to produce robust outcomes that can reliably inform the future management of our water resources.
Almost the same as the talk given to Ph.D. students one year ago. It covers the problem of research reproducibility and the tools for doing it. First comes some "theoretical" arguments, then the enumeration of some tools.
Groundwater models are simplified representation of large and real hydrogeologic systems like river basins or watersheds. GWM is attempted to analyse the mechanisms which control the occurrence and movement of groundwater and to evaluate the policies, actions and designs which may affect the systems. These models are less complex prototypes of complex hydrogeologic systems developed using spatially varying aquifer parameters, hydrologic properties, geologic boundary conditions and positions of withdrawal wells or recharging structures. These are designed to compute how pumping or recharge might affect the local or regional groundwater levels.
A study confined to the lower tapi basin in Gujarat, India to find out the primary causes for 2006 floods in Surat city. The study involves collection of topographical data from the local geological survey organization, rainfall data from meteorological department of india and the application of HEC-HMS software from US Army corps of engineers to identify the primary cause of the runoff.
The idea is to build an algebra of object to represent (water) budgets giving a clear idea of the type of interactions that the budget is subject to.
Any symbol should correspond to a mathematical term or a group of mathematical terms. The number and the collocation of parameters of the models should be clear.
Assessing the ability of SWAT as a water quality model in the Lake Victoria b...Timo Brussée
There is a need for a water quality model for use in the Lake Victoria basin countries in East-Africa. The
region is characterised by data scarcity, a tropical climate and riverine, lacustrine tidal wetlands which form
an important buffer to riverine pollution of the lake. These characteristics of the basin form a challenge for
water quality models. The objective is to state the strengths and weaknesses of a potential water quality
model under these challenging conditions. This objective is executed with the soil water assessment tool
(SWAT) in a catchment of the Lake Victoria Basin as pilot area. The pilot area of the Mara river basin is
hydrologically complex containing tropical and plantation forest, savanna, grasslands, bi-annual agriculture,
shrublands and wetlands. It has varied soil types and bi-annual rain seasons
The study consist of literature research and flow simulation of the transboundary Mara river basin. The
model study aims to characterise the hydrology in the pilot area. The study includes a thorough analysis of
rainfall, stage and flow data. Model preparation steps include the use of weighted-area rainfall estimation
methods, climate model data and empirical derivation of soil input parameters. Discharge calibration
methods include multi-site calibration, by making use of an alternative objective function statistic for the
commonly used Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) called the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). The literature study
targets previous flow and water quality studies done in tropical or wetland areas, thereby looking to see how
these studies adapted to hydrological modelling with SWAT in tropical or wetland areas, and why theses
adaptions were made. The literature research also includes a comparison of wetland processes in SWAT
with the physical, biological and chemical processes as described in previous studies.
The Mara river basin flow simulation gave a satisfactory model performance for two out of three calibration
sites, thereby being able to give preliminary outputs on water-balance and other flow characteristics. During
research, a number of model, knowledge and data gaps were found to be critical for better understanding
the hydrological and water quality system workings in the Lake Victoria and Mara river basin. From the
model and literature study it is concluded that several issues on data scarcity and hydrological model
processes in the tropics can be overcome. These do not necessarily decrease model performance or
uncertainty in the SWAT model. However, wetland processes are oversimplified in SWAT. Modification and
coupled SWAT models yet have not been able to provide an alternative to the default model that adequately
represents the main flow, sediment and nutrients processes and fluxes that are present in Mara’s wetlands.
Disaggregation of Annual to daily Streamflows: A lineardeterministic methodIOSRJAP
In this study, a linear deterministic methodis applied to disaggregate streamflow from annual to daily data inunregulated stations located on the Kızılırmak river in Turkey. To disaggregate annual streamflows to the daily flow at the target station (TS), annual counterparts at the source station (SS) were identified depending on the minimum error criteria that is estimated based on the volume of three-year time window. Then, daily streamflow indexes at SS were calculated to disaggregate annual to daily streamflow at TS through the process. The same steps are replicated to disaggregate monthly streamflow to the daily flow for the purpose of comparison between the two methods. The results are well represents daily streamflow at two methods inquiry comparing to observe data, and also maintain the time series statistical characteristics and mass equilibrium. The comparative results suggest that the monthly to daily disaggregation method perform better than annual to the daily disaggregation method. The daily streamflow generated in this study can be used in the future research for water resources planning and management.
The Development of a Catchment Management Modelling System for the Googong Re...GavanThomas
A scenario assessment model to assist the end-user in determining priorities for a series of agreed management prescriptions that can be enacted through controls on existing landuse
Streamflow simulation using radar-based precipitation applied to the Illinois...Alireza Safari
This paper describes the application of a spatially distributed hydrological model WetSpa (Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants and Atmosphere) using radar-based rainfall data provide by the United States Hydrology Laboratory of NOAA's National Weather Service for a distributed model intercomparison project. The model is applied to the
river basin above Tahlequah hydrometry station with 30-m spatial resolution and one hour time--step for a total simulation period of 6 years. Rainfall inputs are derived from radar. The distributed model parameters are based on an extensive database of watershed characteristics available for the region, including digital maps of DEM, soil type, and land use. The model is calibrated and validated on part of the river flow records. The simulated hydrograph shows a good correspondence with observation (Nash efficiency coeffiecient >80%, indicating that the model is able to simulate the relevant hydrologic processes in the basin accurately.
Application of GIS and MODFLOW to Ground Water Hydrology- A ReviewIJERA Editor
Groundwater is one of the most valuable natural resources, which supports human health, economic
development and ecological diversity. Due to over exploitation, the ground water systems are affected and
require management to maintain the conditions of ground water resources within acceptable limits. With the
development of computers and advances in information technology, efficient techniques for water management
has evolved. The main intent of the paper is to present a comprehensive review on application of GIS
(Geographic Information System) followed by coupling with MODFLOW package for ground water
management and development. Two major areas are discussed stating GIS applications in ground water
hydrology. (i) GIS based subsurface flow and pollution modelling (ii) Selection of artificial recharge sites.
Although the use of these techniques in groundwater studies has rapidly increased since last decade the sucess
rate is very limited. Based on this review , it is concluded that integation of GIS and MODFLOW have great
potential to revolutionize the monitoring and management of vital ground water resources in the future.
Planning for water sensitive communities: the need for a bottom up systems ap...Michael Barry
This paper was prepared by myself and Dr Peter Coombes of Urban Water Cycle Solutions and accepted under peer review for inclusion in the WSUD 2018 conference in Perth, February 2018. It describes how the use of top down average potable water demands in network analyses can generate unreliable predictions of water security and water distribution patterns. In contrast, the use of highly resolved bottom up analysis is shown to produce robust outcomes that can reliably inform the future management of our water resources.
Almost the same as the talk given to Ph.D. students one year ago. It covers the problem of research reproducibility and the tools for doing it. First comes some "theoretical" arguments, then the enumeration of some tools.
Groundwater models are simplified representation of large and real hydrogeologic systems like river basins or watersheds. GWM is attempted to analyse the mechanisms which control the occurrence and movement of groundwater and to evaluate the policies, actions and designs which may affect the systems. These models are less complex prototypes of complex hydrogeologic systems developed using spatially varying aquifer parameters, hydrologic properties, geologic boundary conditions and positions of withdrawal wells or recharging structures. These are designed to compute how pumping or recharge might affect the local or regional groundwater levels.
A study confined to the lower tapi basin in Gujarat, India to find out the primary causes for 2006 floods in Surat city. The study involves collection of topographical data from the local geological survey organization, rainfall data from meteorological department of india and the application of HEC-HMS software from US Army corps of engineers to identify the primary cause of the runoff.
The idea is to build an algebra of object to represent (water) budgets giving a clear idea of the type of interactions that the budget is subject to.
Any symbol should correspond to a mathematical term or a group of mathematical terms. The number and the collocation of parameters of the models should be clear.
Suspended Sediment Rating Curve for Tigris River Upstream Al- Betera RegulatorIJRES Journal
In this study, suspended sediment rating curves for sediment concentration for a section of Tigris
River located upstream AL-Betera regulator, Maysan province. For this purpose. Also, for each observation, the
river discharge was measured using the ADCP . Abased previous years data have been benefiting from the
vicissitudes of time of study area and took the annual discharge rate for each year and then entered into the
equation for calculation of suspended sediment through draw the relationship between discharge and sediment
suspended ,noticed power link between data and a good agreement between the power relation and the observed
data were achieved depending on the value of correlation coefficient R.
A GIS-Based Framework to Identify Opportunities to Use Surface Water to Offse...ASADULISLAMSORIF
The state of Louisiana (Fig. 1) is
characterized by a humid subtropical
climate and receives about 150 cm of
rain per year.
Louisiana hosts about 40% of the
freshwater wetlands in the U.S. is a hub
for the petroleum industry and the third
leading producer of rice in the U.S. Louisiana is also a leading exporter of
aquaculture products
Regulatory, Technical and Modeling Challenges to Developing a Frequency Based...OHM Advisors
Wayne County’s North Huron Valley / Rouge Valley (NHVRV) interceptor system collects
sewage from 15 communities located in Southeast Michigan and transports flows to the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department (DWSD) for treatment and discharge. The County is evaluating a regional approach to controlling wet weather sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs). A new methodology called the i3D antecedent moisture (AM) model, was used to perform the hydrologic modeling. The i3D model is a continuous model that produces a good match to observed flow data over time. The accuracy of the model resulted in a high level of confidence in the frequency analysis for SSOs and will serve as the basis for recommending improvements to control wet weather SSOs. The use of the AM model combined with a frequency analysis for sizing improvements eliminated the need to select a design storm event based on “average” conditions. This reduced many of the conservatisms that are frequently included in event models such as the capture coefficient and seasonal effects. The use of spatially varied rainfall also improved the accuracy of the analysis over the use of a point rain gauge. This paper presents the modeling and analysis innovations used and the preliminary development of a regional project.
A REVIEW ON RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION STUDIES USING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING TE...ijiert bestjournal
Sedimentation in the reservoir gradually reduces it s storage capacity. By keeping a check on the sedimentation and by providing control measures for the same,the reservoir life can be maintained. Uj jani dam was constructed for irrigation,water supply an d power generation schemes. It lies in Solapur dist rict which is a drought prone area. This makes Ujjani a socially and economically significant project for t he state. In the present study,reservoir sedimentatio n for Ujjani reservoir is assessed for monitoring p urpose. Two techniques namely Satellite Remote Sensing Tech nique (SRST) and mathematical modeling using HEC RAS,were used in the study for estimating sedi mentation. Owing to advantages like low cost,time saving,less manpower requirement,accuracy in esti mation and capability of carrying out past surveys,the Satellite Remote Sensing Technique is gaining impor tance over the time consuming and high cost conventional hydrographic surveys. The water spread areas for different reservoir levels were delineat ed from the satellite images of Ujjain Reservoir using ARC GIS software. Volume between two water levels was calculated using prismoidul formula. The presen t volume of reservoir was compared with the initial volume during impoundment of reservoir. This gave t he loss of volume which was due to sedimentation.
2137ad - Characters that live in Merindol and are at the center of main storiesluforfor
Kurgan is a russian expatriate that is secretly in love with Sonia Contado. Henry is a british soldier that took refuge in Merindol Colony in 2137ad. He is the lover of Sonia Contado.
2137ad Merindol Colony Interiors where refugee try to build a seemengly norm...luforfor
This are the interiors of the Merindol Colony in 2137ad after the Climate Change Collapse and the Apocalipse Wars. Merindol is a small Colony in the Italian Alps where there are around 4000 humans. The Colony values mainly around meritocracy and selection by effort.
Explore the multifaceted world of Muntadher Saleh, an Iraqi polymath renowned for his expertise in visual art, writing, design, and pharmacy. This SlideShare delves into his innovative contributions across various disciplines, showcasing his unique ability to blend traditional themes with modern aesthetics. Learn about his impactful artworks, thought-provoking literary pieces, and his vision as a Neo-Pop artist dedicated to raising awareness about Iraq's cultural heritage. Discover why Muntadher Saleh is celebrated as "The Last Polymath" and how his multidisciplinary talents continue to inspire and influence.
Hadj Ounis's most notable work is his sculpture titled "Metamorphosis." This piece showcases Ounis's mastery of form and texture, as he seamlessly combines metal and wood to create a dynamic and visually striking composition. The juxtaposition of the two materials creates a sense of tension and harmony, inviting viewers to contemplate the relationship between nature and industry.
Applying the “abcd” monthly water balance model for some regions in the united states
1. Advances in Physics Theories and Applications
ISSN 2224-719X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0638 (Online)
Vol.25, 2013
www.iiste.org
Applying the “abcd” Monthly Water Balance Model for Some
Regions in the United States
Hadi Salim Al-Lafta*, Balsam Salim Al-Tawash, Buraq Adnan Al-Baldawi
Department of Geology, College of Science, University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq
*
E-mail of the corresponding author: haoubid@yahoo.com
Abstract
As watershed models become increasingly functional and useful, there is a need to extend their applicability to
other locations to explore the possibility of calibrating and evaluating them in such new locations. This study
used the “abcd” monthly water balance model for three catchments in different places in the United States in
order to investigate the feasibility of this model in different regions. Although the regional calibration led to
nearly perfect regional relationships between catchment model parameters and basin characteristics in
catchments with little or no snow, practicality of this model in regions dominated by snow was questionable.
Keywords: “abcd” model, water balance, watershed hydrology, United States
1. Introduction
Watershed models have become an indispensable tool for the assessment, management, and use of water
resources. They provide mechanisms to anticipate catchment behavior and evaluate the consequences of natural
or human-induced changes. For hydrologists, such models are especially useful in the evaluation of assumptions
and theories about the dominant hydrologic processes in a basin. Continuing innovation in data acquisition and
computing technologies, and increasing modeling requirements have resulted in models that represent waterrelated processes with more details in space and time (Martinez, 2007). This paper therefore aims to simulate the
streamflow for several catchments in the United States and, at the same time, intends to understand the
difficulties involved in water balance model regionalization. In order to accomplish the objective of this study, a
simple conceptual model is used. The “abcd” model is applied on monthly time series where the precipitation
and potential evapotranspiration are used as inputs and streamflow as an output.
For the data, the model parameter estimation experiment (MOPEX) data set are used to obtain the monthly
climate data for the catchments as well as to get other information about the basin characteristics. The study
focuses mainly on the “goodness of fit’’ between the model predictions and observations as well as robustness of
the model performance at the monthly time step over different locations throughout the United States.
2. Methods and Data Sets
2.1. Model Identification
Model identification involved a recursive set of steps including (1) selection of study sites and data, (2) selection
of a model hypothesis to be tested, (3) initial simulation, (4) sensitivity analysis: perturbation analysis and
response surfaces, (5) calibration of the model, and (6) evaluation of model performance.
2.2. Study Sites and Data Sets
In this paper, three river catchments were selected to run the model on; The St. Johns River catchment which is
the longest river in the state of Florida. It is 500 km long and 7940 km2 catchment area. We obtained the data for
this river from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX, 2010). The river catchment has a dense
forest and shrubland cover with minimal urbanization. The second catchment is that of Kickapoo River which is
a tributary of the Wisconsin River in the state of Wisconsin, the river is about 210 km long. It is the longest
tributary of the Wisconsin River, drains over a large area of land in Monroe, Vernon, Richland, and Crawford
Counties. The Kickapoo River catchment encompasses 4369 Km2 in southwest Wisconsin covered mainly by
snow and ice. The third catchment is the Leaf River catchment which is about 290 km long river with vegetated
watershed, located in southern Mississippi in the United States. It is a principal tributary of the Pascagoula River,
which flows to the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 1). The data include daily values of precipitation, evapotranspiration,
36
2. Advances in Physics Theories and Applications
ISSN 2224-719X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0638 (Online)
Vol.25, 2013
www.iiste.org
and streamflow that were afterwards converted to monthly data. Matlab was used to automate access to the data
and to enable processing and analyzing the data.
2.3. Model Hypothesis
The “abcd” model is a physics-based, lumped, and nonlinear watershed model which accepts monthly
precipitation and potential evapotranspiration as inputs, producing streamflow as an output. Internally, the model
also represents soil moisture storage, groundwater storage, direct runoff, groundwater outflow to the stream
channel and actual evapotranspiration. It was originally introduced by Thomas (1981) and Thomas et al. (1983)
as a suitable model structure for performing regional water resource assessment using an annual time scale. The
“abcd” model was later compared with numerous monthly water balance models (Fernandez et al., 2000).
The “abcd” model has four parameters a, b, c, and d, each having a specific physical interpretation. The
parameter a (0 <= a <= 1) reflects the propensity of runoff to occur before the soil is fully saturated (Thomas et
al., 1983). The parameter b is an upper limit on the sum of actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture storage in
a given month. Presumably this parameter depends on the ability of the catchment to hold water within the upper
soil horizon. The parameter c is equal to the fraction of streamflow which arises from groundwater discharge in a
given month. Over the long term c is then defined simply as the baseflow index (BFI), an index used commonly
in studies which develop relationships between drainage basin characteristics and groundwater discharge to a
stream channel. The reciprocal of the parameter d is equal to the average groundwater residence time.
The model defines two state variables: Wt, termed “available water” and Yt, termed “evapotranspiration
opportunity”. Available water is defined as:
Wt = Pt +XUt-1
where Pt is precipitation during period t and XUt-1 is upper soil zone soil moisture storage at the previous time
step. Evapotranspiration opportunity “Yt” is water which will eventually leave the basin in the form of
evapotranspiration and is defined as:
Yt = Et + XUt
where Et represents actual evapotranspiration during period t and XUt represents upper soil zone soil moisture
storage at the current time step. Evapotranspiration opportunity Yt is postulated as a nonlinear function of
“available water” Wt using:
Yt (W)t =
-
Evapotranspiration opportunity Yt is further partitioned into actual evapotranspiration Et and residual soil
moisture storage XUt by relating the rate of soil moisture loss to potential evapotranspiration, leading to the
nonlinear relationship:
Et = Yt · (1 − exp(−PEt /b))
Water available for runoff (Wt – Yt) is further partitioned into upper zone contribution to runoff QUt and
recharge to groundwater Rt by the parameter c, according to:
QUt = (1 − c) · (Wt − Yt) and Rt = c · (Wt − Yt)
Recharge Rt is added to the lower soil zone state variable XLt−1 and base flow to the stream is computed
according to the linear recession relationship QLt = d · (XLt). Using continuity, we updated XLt = (XLt−1 + Rt) ·
(1 + d) − 1. Finally total streamflow is computed as:
Qt = QUt + QLt (Figure 2)
37
3. Advances in Physics Theories and Applications
ISSN 2224-719X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0638 (Online)
Vol.25, 2013
www.iiste.org
3. Initial Simulation
The initial simulation was performed with the following parameters values; a = 0.97, b = 250, c = 0.2, and d =
0.01 for a period of 10 years of monthly data for the three rivers in order to know the model behavior. An
acceptable initial simulation was achieved for both the St. Johns River and Leaf River but not for Kickapoo
River (Figure 3).
4. Sensitivity Analysis
The purpose of the sensitivity analysis is to investigate how the variation in the model parameters can affect the
outputs (streamflow in this study). The main idea of this step is to identify the factors that contribute most
strongly to variability and characteristics of the input-output responses. The difference between the simulated
outputs and observed output was measured by the Mean Squared Error (MSE) function as:
MSE =
OtModeled – OtObserved)2
Which measures the fit of the modeled streamflow (OtModeled ) to the observed streamflow (OtObserved) in order to
evaluate the performance of the model. The value of MSE is expected to be close to zero for a good simulation
of the total volume of the observed streamflow series.
4.1. Perturbation analysis
It includes perturbing one parameter at a time and fixing the other parameters. The mean squared error criterion
(MSE) is used to evaluate the perturbation and to determine the nominal value for each parameter separately.
Following the same procedure for each parameter (i.e. perturbing the parameter at a time and fixing the other
three parameters), the nominal value for each parameter was obtained.
Parameter a
This parameter has a range between (0 - 1), Fernandez et al. (2000) found that parameter a falls in the range of
(0.95 - 0.99) across broad regions in the United States and it decreases with urbanization and deforestation. Since
the three catchments in the current study have not been experienced any notable deforestation or urban buildup,
this parameter is expected to have high values (close to one) in such places and it is so (i.e. we obtained values
that are fairly close to one). We figured out that the more the parameter moves away from one, the more the
residuals get bigger.
Parameter b
This parameter has a wide range (260 - 1900) according to (Vandewiele et al. 1992). In this study, its optimal
values were around 700.
Parameter c
Sometimes called baseflow index (BFI), has a range of (0 - 1). This parameter is expected to have small values
in the current study as our catchments have small hydraulic conductivity according to (MOPEX, 2010) data set,
therefore, the infiltrated water and consequently the baseflow index should be small. Also, the model is very
sensitive to this parameter as the perturbation analysis shows (Figure 4).
Parameter d
It ranges between 0 and 1. It highly influences the model. The optimal values for this parameter are very small
(close to zero).
As shown in the figures below, the model is very sensitive to parameter d followed by parameter c and a. Effect
of parameter b variation on the model simulation -if any- is minimal (Figure 4).
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5. Response Surfaces
Six 2-parameter combinations were used (i.e. a-b, a-c, a-d, b-c, b-d, and c-d). For example: for the combination
(a-b), the other two parameters (i.e. c and d) were fixed at specific values while parameters a and b were
perturbed to determine their coexist values that make the MSE minimum and so on for other combinations.
Figure (5) displays six 2-parameter combinations of response surfaces for St. Johns River.
6. Calibration
In order to fully develop the model simulation, we used many data for our catchments to test the performance of
the model. Model testing normally includes two steps, i.e. calibration and evaluation. Correspondingly, the
whole data set was divided into two parts, i.e. the calibration period (10 years) and the evaluation period (7
years). Calibration refers to the process of using the first part of data set to find the optimum values of the
unknown model parameters. By optimizing the model, we obtained the following optimum values of the model
parameters for St. Johns River: a = 0.994, b = 700, c = 0.1, and d = 0.03 (Figure 6). Furthermore, we figured out
that the residuals get bigger with higher streamflows (Appendix 1).
In order to check the model feasibility in other places that receives little or no snow, we applied the model on the
Leaf River using the same optimum parameters values that we already obtained for St. Johns River. Since the
climate patterns and the basin characteristics for both St. Johns and Leaf River are somewhat similar, we wanted
to investigate if the optimum parameters in one place could work well in the other in an attempt to test the
regionalization of the model. Applying the same optimum parameter values of St. Johns River for Leaf River
resulted in acceptable simulation (Figure 7).
For Kickapoo River (a snowy catchment), we tried to calibrate the model to represent such type of systems (a
catchment with snow), but unfortunately we could not get any acceptable simulation (Figure 8). Our findings
were compatible with Martinez and Gupta (2010) who stated that “For regions dominated by snow dynamics,
constructing of an augmented abcd‐snow model by including a simple temperature‐based snow accumulation
and melt component is necessary to get acceptable model performance”.
7. Evaluation
The second part of the data (7 years) for St. Johns River was used to conduct the model evaluation (the process
of using the second part of data set to justify the persistence of the model performance operating with the
parameter values obtained in the calibration period). Only when the performance of the model is satisfactory,
both in the calibration and in the evaluation periods can the model be used with confidence in practice. As shown
in Figure 9, the model performance, with evaluation, is still satisfactory.
Furthermore, model evaluation was also conducted for Leaf River, and satisfying model performance was also
obtained (MSE = 8.25, result not shown).
8. Conclusions
-
-
Four parameters (a, b, c, and d) are sufficient to represent the system characteristics thoroughly in the “abcd”
model.
Parameters a and b are easy to estimate (they fall within specific ranges in the literature) in contrast to
parameters c and d.
The model is very sensitive to parameters c and d.
In two catchments located in mild climate (warm and humid) the “abcd” model exhibits an intermediate
level of performance. The “abcd” model in these regions achieves an MSE statistic value of around 8 and
captures the main features of the streamflow hydrograph.
The “abcd” model in its normal structure does not work perfectly in regions located in continental climate
that dominated by snow. If it has to be applied in such regions, it should be account for snow impact.
It is figured out that the residuals get bigger with higher streamflows indicating that the model work better
for lower streamflow periods.
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References
Fernandez, W., Vogel, R.M., & Sankarasubramanian, A. (2000), “Regional calibration of a watershed model”,
Hydrol. Sci. J., 45, 689-707
Martinez, G.F.B. (2007), “Diagnostic evaluation of watershed models”, MS thesis, Department of Hydrology
and Water Resources, the University of Arizona
Martinez, G.F., Gupta, H.V. (2010) Toward improved identification of hydrological models: A diagnostic
evaluation of the “abcd” monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States. Water Resources
Research, 46
MOPEX (2010), http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ mopex
Thomas, H.A. (1981), “Improved Methods for National Water Assessment: Final report USGS Water Resources
Contract WR15249270, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 44
Thomas, H.A., Marin, C.M., Brown, M.J., & Fiering, M.B. (1983), “Methodology for water resource
assessment”, report to U.S. Geological Survey, Rep. NTIS 84-124163, Natl. Tech. Info. Serv., Springfield, Va.,
1983
Vandewiele, G.L. & Xu, C.Y. (1992), “Methodology and comparative study of monthly water balance models in
Belgium, China and Burma”, J. Hydrol, 134, 315-347
N
Figure 1. Study sites, outlet locations of the studied catchments
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Figure 2. Structure of the “abcd” model
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Figure 3. Initial simulation for St. Johns, Kickapoo, and Leaf Rivers. (a = 0.97, b = 250, c = 0.2, and d = 0.01)
for 10 years of monthly data (1948-1958)
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0
500
1000
www.iiste.org
1500
2000
Parameter b
Figure 4. Perturbation analyses for parameters (a, b, c, and d), St Johns River
Figure 5. Six 2-parameter combinations of response surfaces for St. Johns River. Up: from left to right (a-b, a-c,
and a-d combinations). Down: from left to right (b-c, b-d, and c-d combinations)
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Figure 6. Applying the “abcd” model for St. Johns River, MSE= 5.31, a = 0.994, b = 700, c = 0.1, and d = 0.03
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Figure 7. Applying the “abcd” model for Leaf River, MSE = 6.68
Figure 8. Applying the “abcd” model for Kickapoo River
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Figure 9. Evaluation of the “abcd” model (St. Johns River). MSE = 7.14
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APPENDIX 1. Residuals and absolute residuals versus flows (St. Johns River)
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