This document proposes applying statistical forecasting methods to improve the Earned Schedule - Longest Path (ES-LP) technique for forecasting project duration. ES-LP identifies the longest duration forecast path at each time period to improve forecasts for highly parallel project schedules. However, the accuracy of ES-LP forecasts can be further enhanced through statistical analysis. The document outlines computing confidence limits for ES-LP forecasts using the variation in schedule performance index values over time. Applying this statistical approach could validate forecast ranges and potentially improve duration estimates compared to ES or total project forecasts alone.
PERT (Programme Evaluation and Review Technique) was developed in 1956–58 by a research team to help in the planning and scheduling of the US Navy’s Polaris Nuclear Submarine Missile project involving thousands of activities. The objective of the team was to efficiently plan and develop the Polaris missile system.
This technique has proved to be useful for projects that have an element of uncertainty in the estimation of activity duration, as is the case with new types of projects which have never been taken up before.
Project management is important for several reasons:
1. Effective planning: Project management provides a structured approach to planning and executing projects. By defining clear objectives, timelines, and milestones, project managers can ensure that everyone on the team is working towards a common goal and that resources are allocated efficiently.
2. Cost control: Project management helps to control costs by identifying potential cost overruns early on and taking corrective action to prevent them. By keeping a close eye on project finances, project managers can ensure that the project stays within budget.
3. Risk management: Projects are inherently risky, and project management helps to identify, assess, and mitigate risks throughout the project lifecycle. By proactively managing risks, project managers can reduce the likelihood of negative outcomes and ensure that the project is completed successfully.
4. Improved communication: Good project management involves clear communication among team members, stakeholders, and sponsors. This helps to ensure that everyone understands their roles and responsibilities, and that there are no surprises or misunderstandings along the way.
5. Quality control: Project management also focuses on ensuring that the project delivers a high-quality output. By defining quality standards and conducting regular quality checks, project managers can ensure that the final product meets the requirements and expectations of stakeholders.
PERT (Programme Evaluation and Review Technique) was developed in 1956–58 by a research team to help in the planning and scheduling of the US Navy’s Polaris Nuclear Submarine Missile project involving thousands of activities. The objective of the team was to efficiently plan and develop the Polaris missile system.
This technique has proved to be useful for projects that have an element of uncertainty in the estimation of activity duration, as is the case with new types of projects which have never been taken up before.
Project management is important for several reasons:
1. Effective planning: Project management provides a structured approach to planning and executing projects. By defining clear objectives, timelines, and milestones, project managers can ensure that everyone on the team is working towards a common goal and that resources are allocated efficiently.
2. Cost control: Project management helps to control costs by identifying potential cost overruns early on and taking corrective action to prevent them. By keeping a close eye on project finances, project managers can ensure that the project stays within budget.
3. Risk management: Projects are inherently risky, and project management helps to identify, assess, and mitigate risks throughout the project lifecycle. By proactively managing risks, project managers can reduce the likelihood of negative outcomes and ensure that the project is completed successfully.
4. Improved communication: Good project management involves clear communication among team members, stakeholders, and sponsors. This helps to ensure that everyone understands their roles and responsibilities, and that there are no surprises or misunderstandings along the way.
5. Quality control: Project management also focuses on ensuring that the project delivers a high-quality output. By defining quality standards and conducting regular quality checks, project managers can ensure that the final product meets the requirements and expectations of stakeholders.
Polynomial Function and Fuzzy Inference for Evaluating the Project Performanc...IJERA Editor
The objectives of this paper are two folds. The first one is to improve the time forecasting produced from the well known Earned Value Management (EVM), using the polynomial function. The time prediction observed from the polynomial model, which is compared against that observed from the most common method for time forecasting (critical path method), is a more accurate (mean absolute percentage of error is less than 2%) than that observed from the conventional deterministic forecasting methods (CDFMs). The second is to evaluate and forecast the overall project performance under uncertainty using the fuzzy inference. As the uncertainty is inherent in real life projects, the polynomial function and fuzzy inference model (PFFI) can assist the project managers, to estimate the future status of the project in a more robust and reliable way. Two examples are used to illustrate how the new method can be implemented in reality.
Brown’s Weighted Exponential Moving Average Implementation in Forex ForecastingTELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
In 2016, a time series forecasting technique which combined the weighting factor calculation formula found in weighted moving average with Brown’s double exponential smoothing procedures had been introduced. The technique is known as Brown’s weighted exponential moving average (B-WEMA), as a new variant of double exponential smoothing method which does the exponential filter processes twice. In this research, we will try to implement the new method to forecast some foreign exchange, or known as forex data, including EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and EUR/JPY data. The time series data forecasting results using B-WEMA then be compared with other conventional and hybrid moving average methods, such as weighted moving average (WMA), exponential moving average (EMA), and Brown’s double exponential smoothing (B-DES). The comparison results show that B-WEMA has a better accuracy level than other forecasting methods used in this research.
Study of Probability Distributions of Cpi and Spi in Earned Value Analysistheijes
Earned Value analysis (EVA) is the most efficient tool used for transitional review of project execution .It is helpful to project managers and management team to value the progress of project work throughout the project life cycle. The Earned Schedule (ES) is used to approximate the time or duration of project/ s for appropriate evaluation of project execution. ES also help to forecast the time required to complete the project. When combined with schedule analysis, ES can enhance the project. EVA provides the controlling tool for better decision making in project management. The paper discuss about the probability distribution of Cost performance Index (CPI) and Schedule performance Index (SPI). Best fitted distribution will help for forecasting project duration effectively. This helps the Project Manager to prevent the over budgeted cost in future. So an attempt is made to find the alternative distribution of CPI and SPI for better decision making. If the project schedule performance shows poor results then manager need to take the corrective action with the help of this tool. Weibull, Gamma and Exponentiated Exponential Distribution functions are used to study the effect of SPI on CPI. For making better decision in project scheduling, Project managers can review the parameters using EVM tool. The tool is useful in all types of civil engineering and software engineering projects.
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a technique
that forecasts the project giving an early warning of cost &
schedule. It not onely measures the project performance but also
measure the progress of the schedule. It is an effective tool to
measure cost, schedule & performance of the project. The EVA is
useful in various fields such as IT, Industries and Construction
companies etc.
The value of Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is dependent on
two key areas i.e. Precise Cost information and pragmatic
progress of project. If these two key areas are efficient then
benefit of the project will definitely get valued. This paper
summarizes the evolution, basic terminologies of Earned value
Analysis and effective use of it in the construction industries by
MS Project. There are many ways to implement EVA in the
construction project. MS Project is a tool to determine the EV
and its parameters in an efficient way with accuracy and within
time constraints.
CASeexAMPlegeneRAlAvIATIOnhAngARReSTORATIOnI n t r.docxtroutmanboris
CASe exAMPle: geneRAl AvIATIOn hAngAR
ReSTORATIOn
I n t ro d u c t i o n
this case example, although for a very small project, illustrates some interesting features of
planning using critical path analysis. although there are only 17 activities, the precedence
logic is a little complex to draw clearly owing to the number of crossed links, and we
show how this difficulty is easily overcome by inserting dummy activities at three of the
crossover points.
our case example demonstrates the application of pert (program evaluation and
review technique), in which the estimated duration for each activity can be subjected
to a probabilistic study in an attempt to forecast the most likely completion time for the
entire project.
finally, this case will demonstrate how a project manager need not accept the results of
time analysis without question, but can plan to apply extra effort to expedite critical activities
(usually for additional cost) to bring the planned project completion date forward
P ro j e c t B a c k g ro u n d
CEN-CONSTRUCT is a medium-sized business located in Sydney, Australia that is
owned and operated by a family. It is principally a consulting company that specializes in
aviation civil engineering, having worked on runway construction and paving projects as
well as several other airport airside projects, most of which have been for smaller general
airports. Having decided to extend its range of operations, the company recognized a local
need for a contractor that could carry out aircraft hangar renovation. In consequence, the
company has now achieved a good level of expertise in the interior design and renovation
of hangars
the subject of this case example was the renovation of a hangar for a small client at a
general aviation airport. the client uses the hangar to house his cessna 310 twin-engine
plane. the hangar was originally built in 1950, since when no further construction or
renovation work has been carried out. cen-construct had no previous integrated
project management system or strategy for this type of project, so the project management
planning steps described here were implemented for them. the planning exhibits are
slightly simplified for clarity of reproduction.
P ro j e c t D e f i n i t i o n A n d A c t i v i t y L i s t
Because the total number of identified activities was small, a simple activity list (task
list) sufficed for the WBS. This list, given in Figure 7.11, defines the project scope. It also
defines the logical work sequence by stating the immediate predecessor(s) that must be
completed before each new activity can begin. the cost estimates show that the total
original estimated cost for this project was $46 900.
Readers will note that the table in Figure 7.11 contains four different duration estimates
for each activity. this is because the project planner decided to use a probability assessment
method known as pert to this project. this is explained in the .
Crashing is the procedure by which project duration can be shorten up by expediting selective
activities with in the project. But it requires allocating more resources than usual to compress an activity’s
duration, which in turns increases the budget of that activity. So, crashing is basically a time-cost trade-off by
which specific deadline can be achieved. The traditional method of crashing only considers average activity
times for the calculation of the critical path, ignoring the stochastic nature of activity time. This report is written
to develop an algorithm for optimum crashing method to minimize the required cost while attaining a specified
completion time.
Polynomial Function and Fuzzy Inference for Evaluating the Project Performanc...IJERA Editor
The objectives of this paper are two folds. The first one is to improve the time forecasting produced from the well known Earned Value Management (EVM), using the polynomial function. The time prediction observed from the polynomial model, which is compared against that observed from the most common method for time forecasting (critical path method), is a more accurate (mean absolute percentage of error is less than 2%) than that observed from the conventional deterministic forecasting methods (CDFMs). The second is to evaluate and forecast the overall project performance under uncertainty using the fuzzy inference. As the uncertainty is inherent in real life projects, the polynomial function and fuzzy inference model (PFFI) can assist the project managers, to estimate the future status of the project in a more robust and reliable way. Two examples are used to illustrate how the new method can be implemented in reality.
Brown’s Weighted Exponential Moving Average Implementation in Forex ForecastingTELKOMNIKA JOURNAL
In 2016, a time series forecasting technique which combined the weighting factor calculation formula found in weighted moving average with Brown’s double exponential smoothing procedures had been introduced. The technique is known as Brown’s weighted exponential moving average (B-WEMA), as a new variant of double exponential smoothing method which does the exponential filter processes twice. In this research, we will try to implement the new method to forecast some foreign exchange, or known as forex data, including EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and EUR/JPY data. The time series data forecasting results using B-WEMA then be compared with other conventional and hybrid moving average methods, such as weighted moving average (WMA), exponential moving average (EMA), and Brown’s double exponential smoothing (B-DES). The comparison results show that B-WEMA has a better accuracy level than other forecasting methods used in this research.
Study of Probability Distributions of Cpi and Spi in Earned Value Analysistheijes
Earned Value analysis (EVA) is the most efficient tool used for transitional review of project execution .It is helpful to project managers and management team to value the progress of project work throughout the project life cycle. The Earned Schedule (ES) is used to approximate the time or duration of project/ s for appropriate evaluation of project execution. ES also help to forecast the time required to complete the project. When combined with schedule analysis, ES can enhance the project. EVA provides the controlling tool for better decision making in project management. The paper discuss about the probability distribution of Cost performance Index (CPI) and Schedule performance Index (SPI). Best fitted distribution will help for forecasting project duration effectively. This helps the Project Manager to prevent the over budgeted cost in future. So an attempt is made to find the alternative distribution of CPI and SPI for better decision making. If the project schedule performance shows poor results then manager need to take the corrective action with the help of this tool. Weibull, Gamma and Exponentiated Exponential Distribution functions are used to study the effect of SPI on CPI. For making better decision in project scheduling, Project managers can review the parameters using EVM tool. The tool is useful in all types of civil engineering and software engineering projects.
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a technique
that forecasts the project giving an early warning of cost &
schedule. It not onely measures the project performance but also
measure the progress of the schedule. It is an effective tool to
measure cost, schedule & performance of the project. The EVA is
useful in various fields such as IT, Industries and Construction
companies etc.
The value of Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is dependent on
two key areas i.e. Precise Cost information and pragmatic
progress of project. If these two key areas are efficient then
benefit of the project will definitely get valued. This paper
summarizes the evolution, basic terminologies of Earned value
Analysis and effective use of it in the construction industries by
MS Project. There are many ways to implement EVA in the
construction project. MS Project is a tool to determine the EV
and its parameters in an efficient way with accuracy and within
time constraints.
CASeexAMPlegeneRAlAvIATIOnhAngARReSTORATIOnI n t r.docxtroutmanboris
CASe exAMPle: geneRAl AvIATIOn hAngAR
ReSTORATIOn
I n t ro d u c t i o n
this case example, although for a very small project, illustrates some interesting features of
planning using critical path analysis. although there are only 17 activities, the precedence
logic is a little complex to draw clearly owing to the number of crossed links, and we
show how this difficulty is easily overcome by inserting dummy activities at three of the
crossover points.
our case example demonstrates the application of pert (program evaluation and
review technique), in which the estimated duration for each activity can be subjected
to a probabilistic study in an attempt to forecast the most likely completion time for the
entire project.
finally, this case will demonstrate how a project manager need not accept the results of
time analysis without question, but can plan to apply extra effort to expedite critical activities
(usually for additional cost) to bring the planned project completion date forward
P ro j e c t B a c k g ro u n d
CEN-CONSTRUCT is a medium-sized business located in Sydney, Australia that is
owned and operated by a family. It is principally a consulting company that specializes in
aviation civil engineering, having worked on runway construction and paving projects as
well as several other airport airside projects, most of which have been for smaller general
airports. Having decided to extend its range of operations, the company recognized a local
need for a contractor that could carry out aircraft hangar renovation. In consequence, the
company has now achieved a good level of expertise in the interior design and renovation
of hangars
the subject of this case example was the renovation of a hangar for a small client at a
general aviation airport. the client uses the hangar to house his cessna 310 twin-engine
plane. the hangar was originally built in 1950, since when no further construction or
renovation work has been carried out. cen-construct had no previous integrated
project management system or strategy for this type of project, so the project management
planning steps described here were implemented for them. the planning exhibits are
slightly simplified for clarity of reproduction.
P ro j e c t D e f i n i t i o n A n d A c t i v i t y L i s t
Because the total number of identified activities was small, a simple activity list (task
list) sufficed for the WBS. This list, given in Figure 7.11, defines the project scope. It also
defines the logical work sequence by stating the immediate predecessor(s) that must be
completed before each new activity can begin. the cost estimates show that the total
original estimated cost for this project was $46 900.
Readers will note that the table in Figure 7.11 contains four different duration estimates
for each activity. this is because the project planner decided to use a probability assessment
method known as pert to this project. this is explained in the .
Crashing is the procedure by which project duration can be shorten up by expediting selective
activities with in the project. But it requires allocating more resources than usual to compress an activity’s
duration, which in turns increases the budget of that activity. So, crashing is basically a time-cost trade-off by
which specific deadline can be achieved. The traditional method of crashing only considers average activity
times for the calculation of the critical path, ignoring the stochastic nature of activity time. This report is written
to develop an algorithm for optimum crashing method to minimize the required cost while attaining a specified
completion time.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
Francesca Gottschalk - How can education support child empowerment.pptxEduSkills OECD
Francesca Gottschalk from the OECD’s Centre for Educational Research and Innovation presents at the Ask an Expert Webinar: How can education support child empowerment?
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202