2020 USA Poll is related to COVID-19 death Toll, Mental health rank, Steed sales volume and Physical scientist count.

1. Analysis of 2020 USA Presidential Election with
Semi-Covariance
Speaker：Jun (Steed) Huang
Authors: Yaqian (Alicia) Qi, Baruch College, The City University of New York
Yu (Andy) Li, Computer Science and Engineering, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Jiamin (Moran) Huang, Computer Science, Jiangsu University
Jun (Steed) Huang, Systems and Computer Engineering, Carleton University
December 25，2020
JSU IITR Workshop

2. 1 Introduction
2
Mathematical Derivation,
Method and Results
3 Discussion and Conclusion
CONTENTS

3. CH
1
Introduction

4. Executive Summary
The average or expectation of an engineering observation random quantity is the first
order origin moment. The deviation of random variable from the average is called
error. The quantity used to measure the degree of correlation between the errors of
two variables is called covariance. Variance is a special case of covariance, when two
variables are the same. The variance is the second-order central moment, its root is
standard deviation. The normalization of covariance to standard deviation is called
Pearson correlation coefficient. The covariance for the region above or below the
average is called semi-covariance (upper or down).
Here we present semi-covariance, an accurate way of measuring the non-linear
correlation between variables. Our framework can successfully analyze the association
between alternative factors and the poll response. The result of our analyses of the
2020 USA presidential election suggest that pandemic, funding, culture, and mental
health have different impacts on presidential candidates: Biden vs Trump.

5. Joe Biden vs Donald Trump
Former Vice President Joe Biden assembled large enough
electoral votes (National Archives. 2020) in key states to
unseat President Donald Trump and become the 46th
president of the United States.
Americans appear to have voted in the 2020 presidential
election at their highest rate in 120 years. Democrat Joe
Biden has amassed more than 81 million votes while
Republican Donald Trump has received nearly 74 million.

6. Year 1880, Karl Pearson's formula

7. 1990 Nobel Winner

8. Contributions
In summary, we make the following contributions in this research.
1.We propose a newly derived method that can be used to analyze the
non-linear pattern based on a Nobel prize-winning idea.
2.We identify, collect, and integrate data for the 2020 presidential
selection association analysis.
3.We provide a great resource for studying the voting election map,
establish an analysis framework to understand the economic and
demographic factors that may affect the election campaign, and
identify the potential features underlying the formation of the voting
group.

9. CH
2Mathematical
Derivation, Method
and Results

10. A Few Ancestors
Laplace is a French analyst, probability theorist and physicist, and an academician of the French Academy of Sciences. In 1812, he
published an important book, Probability Analysis Theory, which summarizes the research of probability theory at that time and
discusses the application of probability in astronomy.
Gauss is a Jewish, famous German mathematician, physicist, astronomer, geodesy, and one of the founders of modern mathematics.
Gauss was considered one of the most important mathematicians in history. He studied the complex plane of integer and enjoyed the
name of the prince of mathematics.
Mandelbrot moved to Paris with his family at an early age. He spent most of his life in the United States and has the triple nationality
of Poland, France and the United States. He studied a wide range from mathematical physics to financial mathematics, but his greatest
achievement was the creation of fractal dimension geometry.
Expectation Variance Semi

11. Problem to solve
For nonlinear relationship like below we don’t want to just take a zero away, we want
to see who made it zero? In what region the relationship is not zero!
How they cancelled each others? What’s different between each zero?

12. Mathematical Derivation
• The following simple derivation proves the relationship
between our upper covariance and Nobel Winner Prof. Harry
M Markowitz's down variance:

13. Mathematical Derivation Continue

14. Method
Because individuals’ voting choices are confidential, we relied upon
which candidate won a particular state as a proxy to assess the possible
effects of the national result. Electoral votes are allocated among the
States based on the Census. Every State is allocated a number of votes
equal to the number of senators and representatives in its U.S.
Congressional delegation.

15. Method Map
Biden: 2,Trump: 3
Biden: 2,Trump: 2
Trump: 18
Trump: 29
Trump: 11
Trump: 11
Trump: 15
Trump: 38
Biden: 55
Biden: 29
Biden: 10
Biden: 10
Biden: 11
Biden: 12
Biden: 13
Biden: 14
Biden: 16
Biden: 16
Biden: 20
Biden: 20
Trump: 9
Trump: 3
Trump: 9
Trump: 8
Trump: 3
Trump: 3
Trump: 3
Trump: 8
Trump: 4
Trump: 5
Trump: 6
Trump: 6
Trump: 6
Trump: 6
Trump: 6
Trump: 6
Trump: 7
Biden: 7
Biden: 6
Biden: 7
Biden: 9
Biden: 5
Biden: 4
Biden: 3
Biden: 3
© 2020 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap
2020 Presdential Vote
cat egory
Biden
Biden and Trump
Trump
3
20
40
55

16. Factors Data
1. The pandemic data comes from the Center for Diseases Control and Prevention
(CDC) data tracker. As of Nov. 25, 2020, the death toll reached 261k in the U.S.
2. Adult Ranking is used to assess the possible effects of the national result on its
voters’ mental wellness. States that are ranked 1-13 have a lower prevalence of
mental illness and higher rates of access to care for adults. The states with higher
rank (39-51) indicate that adults have a higher prevalence of mental illness and
lower rates of access to care. The rest are in middle.
3. Physical scientist (2018) is used as the representative of the College group. We
extract the data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The spirit of independence
and freedom in thinking is particularly important in academic studies and research.
4. Horse racing is one of the oldest of all sports that have taken place in the United
States, which provides enormous economic, employment, and social contribution
for entertainment sector.

17. Results
Note that the up Semi plus down Semi equals Pearson, that cross verifies the calculations are all correct. For the
value above 0.5 we note it as “yes yes” means strong support, for value below 0.5 we note it as “yes” means
support, for value below 0 we note it as “no” means objection, for value below -0.5 we will note “no no”.

18. CH
3Discussion and
Conclusion

19. Takeaway
Here we present semi-covariance, an accurate way of measuring
the non-linear correlation between variables. Our framework can
successfully analyze the association between alternative factors
and the response outcome.
The result of our analyses of the 2020 presidential election
suggest that the Mental health and Steed sale are on Trump side,
COVID-19 death Toll and Scientist count are on Biden side.

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CDC deaths: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days
Adult Ranking Index: https://www.mhanational.org/issues/ranking-states
Physical Scientist: https://www.bls.gov/oes/
Steed Sales: https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Full_Report/Volume_1,_Chapter_1_State_Level/
2020 Election result: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Thank you for your time!
JunHuang@Cunet.Carleton.Ca
https://carleton.ca/trustcav/