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AN UNSETTLED PUBLIC AND THE 
MIDTERM ELECTIONS 
The 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey 
Join the Discussion on Twitter: 
#AVS2014
Survey Methodology 
The 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey 
• Third Biennial Post-Election American Values Survey (2010, 2012, 2014) 
• Designed and conducted by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) 
• N = 1,399 bilingual (English and Spanish) callback telephone interviews with 
respondents from the pre‐election American Values Survey between 
November 5-9, 2014 
• MOE = +/- 3.6 percentage points for total sample; +/- 4.1 percentage points 
for voters at the 95% confidence interval 
• Funded by a generous grant from The Ford Foundation and the Nathan 
Cummings Foundation 
2014 Post Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 2
THE 2014 ELECTION CONTEXT 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 3
The Election Context: Economic Insecurity 
Is the Economy Still in a 
72 
21 
Recession? 
7 
Yes, still in a recession No, recession is over 
Don't know/Refused 
Economic Insecurity Index 
26 
15 
No Reported insecurity Low Insecurity 
Moderate Insecurity High insecurity 
Source: PRRI, Pre-election American Values Survey, September 2014 
39 
20 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 4
The Election Context: Personal Insecurity 
How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be 
Very Worried Somewhat Worried Not Too Worried Not at All Worried 
11 
14 
10 
9 
22 
18 
22 
29 
24 
a victim of terrorism? 
By Party Affiliation 
37 
35 
32 
35 
39 
28 
31 
35 
33 
22 
11 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
All Americans 
Democrat 
Independent 
Republican 
Tea Party 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 5
Most See Country Off on Wrong Track 
62 
41 42 
Country Off on the Wrong Track 
58 60 
66 67 68 68 
78 
82 
90 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 6
VOTERS AND NONVOTERS 
2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 7
2014 Midterms: 
Lowest Turnout since 1942 
2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 8
Voters and Nonvoters: 
Racial and Ethnic Differences 
73 
35 
Voters Nonvoters All Americans 
26 
21 
12 12 
11 
12 12 
8 
1 
56 
33 
22 
3 
67 
34 
2 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
White White 
Working-Class 
White 
College-Educated 
Black Hispanic Asian/PI 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 9
Voters and Nonvoters: 
Demographic Differences 
47 
53 
Voters Nonvoters All Americans 
12 
24 
38 
33 
52 
48 
35 
20 21 
13 
53 
23 
49 
51 
43 
29 
80 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
Men Women Young Adults Seniors High School 
Ed. 
College grad 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 10
Types of Reported Voting Problems 
28 
5 
2 
2 
6 
18 24 
14 
Difficulty finding/getting to polling place 
Difficulty getting off work to make it to the polls 
Moved to a new address/Difficulties with absentee 
ballot 
Ineligible to vote 
Did not have correct identification 
Lines too long 
Ballot was confusing 
Other 
DK/Refused 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 11
THE 2014 MIDTERM VOTE 
2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 12
The 2014 Religion Vote 
By Religious Affiliation 
Republican candidate Other/Third Party Democratic candidate Don't know/Refused 
26 
24 
2 
50 
58 
80 
46 
2 
3 
5 
2 
45 
39 
14 
33 
65 
70 
7 
4 
4 
8 
6 
6 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
All Voters 
White Evangelical Protestant 
White Catholic 
White Mainline Protesant 
Unaffiliated 
Minority Protestant* 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 13
2014 Midterm Vote 
Among Whites by Class 
46 
Republican candidate Democratic candidate 
55 
61 
45 45 
35 
26 
48 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
All Voters All White Voters White Working Class White College Educated 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 14
2014 Midterm Vote 
By Most Important Issue 
46 
Republican candidate Democratic candidate 
65 
62 
43 
26 
45 
27 28 
50 
65 
70 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
All Voters National security Immigration Economy Health care 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 15
2014 Midterm Vote 
By Concerns about Ebola and Terrorism 
55 
Republican candidate Democratic candidate 
43 
61 
39 
34 
48 
32 
51 
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 
Worried 
Not Worried 
Worried 
Not Worried 
Terrorism Ebola 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 16
2014 Midterm Vote 
Among Romney and Obama Voters 
Republican candidate Democratic candidate Other/Third Party Don't know/Refused 
Among 2012 Obama Voters 
8 2 
Among 2012 Romney Voters 
90 
4 2 4 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
84 
6 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 17
PERCEPTION OF BIGGEST PROBLEM IN U.S. 
ELECTIONS TODAY 
Voter Fraud vs. Disenfranchisement 
2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 18
Biggest Problem in U.S. Elections: 
Voter Fraud or Disenfranchisement 
Which is a Bigger Problem in U.S. Elections Today? 
18 
By Party Affiliation 
People casting votes who are not eligible to vote 
Neither/Both 
Eligible voters being denied the right to vote 
Don't know/Refused 
40 
41 
68 
67 
7 
9 
4 
6 
7 
43 
16 
20 
64 
42 
10 
10 
9 
8 
12 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
All Americans 
Republican 
Tea Party 
Independent 
Democrat 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 19
Biggest Problem in U.S. Elections: 
Voter Fraud or Disenfranchisement 
Which is a Bigger Problem in U.S. Elections Today? 
By Trusted Media Source 
People casting votes who are not eligible to vote 
Neither/Both 
Eligible voters being denied the right to vote 
Don't know/Refused 
29 
76 
8 
5 
52 
12 
7 
11 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
Most Trust Fox News 
Most Trust Other 
Sources 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 20
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE 2016 ELECTION 
2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 21
Looking Ahead to 2016: 
Republican Candidate Field 
Preference for 2016 Republican Nomination 
Asked of Republicans and Republican leaners 
17 
12 
11 
11 
10 10 
6 
9 
7 
7 
1 
Mitt Romney 
Mike Huckabee 
Rand Paul 
Jeb Bush 
Chris Christie 
Paul Ryan 
Ted Cruz 
Rick Perry 
Marco Rubio 
Scott Walker 
DK/Refused 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 22
Looking Ahead to 2016: 
Democratic Candidate Field 
Preference for 2016 Democratic Nomination 
Asked of Democrats and Democratic leaners 
62 
11 
13 
6 
2 
7 
Hillary Clinton 
Elizabeth Warren 
Joe Biden 
Andrew Cuomo 
Martin O'Malley 
Don't know/Refused 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 23
Perceived Ideology of Clinton, Obama, and 
the Democratic Party 
Very liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative Very 
24 
34 
20 
30 
38 
32 
conservative 
19 
23 
26 
Don't know/ 
Refused 
5 
2 
9 
12 
7 
3 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
Hillary 
Clinton 
Barack 
Obama 
Democratic 
Party 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 24
Positive Attributes of Political Parties 
Does this Phrase Best Describe the Republican Party or Democratic 
Party? 
Neither Both equally Republican 
4 
47 
7 
43 
34 
9 
6 
Party 
2 
2 
Don't know/ 
Refused 
50 
45 
37 
Democratic 
Party 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
Is better at keeping 
America safe 
Shares your values 
Cares about 
people like you 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 25
Negative Attributes of Political Parties 
Does this Phrase Best Describe the Republican Party or the 
Democratic Party? 
Neither Both equally Republican 
53 
1 
39 
35 
Party 
5 
2 
3 
14 
5 
Don't know/ 
Refused 
42 
49 
33 
Democratic 
Party 
0 20 40 60 80 100 
Is more influenced 
by lobbyists and 
special interests 
Is more extreme in its 
positions 
Wants to radically 
transform American 
society 
Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 26
THE CONTINUING RACIAL DIVIDE 
AFTER FERGUSON 
2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 27
Perceptions of Fairness of Criminal Justice 
System: Before & After Ferguson 
Blacks and other minorities receive equal treatment in the criminal 
Before Shooting (7/21-8/9) After Shooting (8/10-8/15) Post-election (11/5-11/9) 
38 
justice system. 
Percent who Agree 
44 
29 
36 
48 
16 
46 
53 
31 
60 
50 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
All Americans White, non-Hispanic Non-white (All) 
Source: PRRI, Pre-election American Values Survey, September 2014; PRRI, Post-election American Values 
Survey, November 2014 
2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 28
An Unsettled Public and the 
Midterm Elections 
The 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey 
Join the #AVS2014 conversation online: 
Twitter: @PublicReligion 
Facebook.com/PublicReligion

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An Unsettled Public in the 2014 Midterm Elections: Findings from the PRRI Post-election American Values Survey

  • 1. AN UNSETTLED PUBLIC AND THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS The 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey Join the Discussion on Twitter: #AVS2014
  • 2. Survey Methodology The 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey • Third Biennial Post-Election American Values Survey (2010, 2012, 2014) • Designed and conducted by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) • N = 1,399 bilingual (English and Spanish) callback telephone interviews with respondents from the pre‐election American Values Survey between November 5-9, 2014 • MOE = +/- 3.6 percentage points for total sample; +/- 4.1 percentage points for voters at the 95% confidence interval • Funded by a generous grant from The Ford Foundation and the Nathan Cummings Foundation 2014 Post Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 2
  • 3. THE 2014 ELECTION CONTEXT 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 3
  • 4. The Election Context: Economic Insecurity Is the Economy Still in a 72 21 Recession? 7 Yes, still in a recession No, recession is over Don't know/Refused Economic Insecurity Index 26 15 No Reported insecurity Low Insecurity Moderate Insecurity High insecurity Source: PRRI, Pre-election American Values Survey, September 2014 39 20 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 4
  • 5. The Election Context: Personal Insecurity How worried are you that you or someone in your family will be Very Worried Somewhat Worried Not Too Worried Not at All Worried 11 14 10 9 22 18 22 29 24 a victim of terrorism? By Party Affiliation 37 35 32 35 39 28 31 35 33 22 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 All Americans Democrat Independent Republican Tea Party Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 5
  • 6. Most See Country Off on Wrong Track 62 41 42 Country Off on the Wrong Track 58 60 66 67 68 68 78 82 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 6
  • 7. VOTERS AND NONVOTERS 2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 7
  • 8. 2014 Midterms: Lowest Turnout since 1942 2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 8
  • 9. Voters and Nonvoters: Racial and Ethnic Differences 73 35 Voters Nonvoters All Americans 26 21 12 12 11 12 12 8 1 56 33 22 3 67 34 2 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 White White Working-Class White College-Educated Black Hispanic Asian/PI Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 9
  • 10. Voters and Nonvoters: Demographic Differences 47 53 Voters Nonvoters All Americans 12 24 38 33 52 48 35 20 21 13 53 23 49 51 43 29 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Men Women Young Adults Seniors High School Ed. College grad Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 10
  • 11. Types of Reported Voting Problems 28 5 2 2 6 18 24 14 Difficulty finding/getting to polling place Difficulty getting off work to make it to the polls Moved to a new address/Difficulties with absentee ballot Ineligible to vote Did not have correct identification Lines too long Ballot was confusing Other DK/Refused Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 11
  • 12. THE 2014 MIDTERM VOTE 2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 12
  • 13. The 2014 Religion Vote By Religious Affiliation Republican candidate Other/Third Party Democratic candidate Don't know/Refused 26 24 2 50 58 80 46 2 3 5 2 45 39 14 33 65 70 7 4 4 8 6 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 All Voters White Evangelical Protestant White Catholic White Mainline Protesant Unaffiliated Minority Protestant* Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 13
  • 14. 2014 Midterm Vote Among Whites by Class 46 Republican candidate Democratic candidate 55 61 45 45 35 26 48 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 All Voters All White Voters White Working Class White College Educated Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 14
  • 15. 2014 Midterm Vote By Most Important Issue 46 Republican candidate Democratic candidate 65 62 43 26 45 27 28 50 65 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 All Voters National security Immigration Economy Health care Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 15
  • 16. 2014 Midterm Vote By Concerns about Ebola and Terrorism 55 Republican candidate Democratic candidate 43 61 39 34 48 32 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Worried Not Worried Worried Not Worried Terrorism Ebola Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 16
  • 17. 2014 Midterm Vote Among Romney and Obama Voters Republican candidate Democratic candidate Other/Third Party Don't know/Refused Among 2012 Obama Voters 8 2 Among 2012 Romney Voters 90 4 2 4 Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 84 6 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 17
  • 18. PERCEPTION OF BIGGEST PROBLEM IN U.S. ELECTIONS TODAY Voter Fraud vs. Disenfranchisement 2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 18
  • 19. Biggest Problem in U.S. Elections: Voter Fraud or Disenfranchisement Which is a Bigger Problem in U.S. Elections Today? 18 By Party Affiliation People casting votes who are not eligible to vote Neither/Both Eligible voters being denied the right to vote Don't know/Refused 40 41 68 67 7 9 4 6 7 43 16 20 64 42 10 10 9 8 12 0 20 40 60 80 100 All Americans Republican Tea Party Independent Democrat Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 19
  • 20. Biggest Problem in U.S. Elections: Voter Fraud or Disenfranchisement Which is a Bigger Problem in U.S. Elections Today? By Trusted Media Source People casting votes who are not eligible to vote Neither/Both Eligible voters being denied the right to vote Don't know/Refused 29 76 8 5 52 12 7 11 0 20 40 60 80 100 Most Trust Fox News Most Trust Other Sources Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 20
  • 21. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE 2016 ELECTION 2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 21
  • 22. Looking Ahead to 2016: Republican Candidate Field Preference for 2016 Republican Nomination Asked of Republicans and Republican leaners 17 12 11 11 10 10 6 9 7 7 1 Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Rand Paul Jeb Bush Chris Christie Paul Ryan Ted Cruz Rick Perry Marco Rubio Scott Walker DK/Refused Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 22
  • 23. Looking Ahead to 2016: Democratic Candidate Field Preference for 2016 Democratic Nomination Asked of Democrats and Democratic leaners 62 11 13 6 2 7 Hillary Clinton Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden Andrew Cuomo Martin O'Malley Don't know/Refused Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 23
  • 24. Perceived Ideology of Clinton, Obama, and the Democratic Party Very liberal Liberal Moderate Conservative Very 24 34 20 30 38 32 conservative 19 23 26 Don't know/ Refused 5 2 9 12 7 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 Hillary Clinton Barack Obama Democratic Party Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 24
  • 25. Positive Attributes of Political Parties Does this Phrase Best Describe the Republican Party or Democratic Party? Neither Both equally Republican 4 47 7 43 34 9 6 Party 2 2 Don't know/ Refused 50 45 37 Democratic Party 0 20 40 60 80 100 Is better at keeping America safe Shares your values Cares about people like you Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 25
  • 26. Negative Attributes of Political Parties Does this Phrase Best Describe the Republican Party or the Democratic Party? Neither Both equally Republican 53 1 39 35 Party 5 2 3 14 5 Don't know/ Refused 42 49 33 Democratic Party 0 20 40 60 80 100 Is more influenced by lobbyists and special interests Is more extreme in its positions Wants to radically transform American society Source: PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 26
  • 27. THE CONTINUING RACIAL DIVIDE AFTER FERGUSON 2014 American Values Survey | #AVS2014 27
  • 28. Perceptions of Fairness of Criminal Justice System: Before & After Ferguson Blacks and other minorities receive equal treatment in the criminal Before Shooting (7/21-8/9) After Shooting (8/10-8/15) Post-election (11/5-11/9) 38 justice system. Percent who Agree 44 29 36 48 16 46 53 31 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 All Americans White, non-Hispanic Non-white (All) Source: PRRI, Pre-election American Values Survey, September 2014; PRRI, Post-election American Values Survey, November 2014 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey | #AVS2014 28
  • 29. An Unsettled Public and the Midterm Elections The 2014 Post-Election American Values Survey Join the #AVS2014 conversation online: Twitter: @PublicReligion Facebook.com/PublicReligion

Editor's Notes

  1. Ebola concerns: 22% worried 78% not worried
  2. Only other times we had voter turnout this low was World War II and Great Depression.
  3. 12% of Americans report having some kind of difficulty voting in 2014. 2% of voters reported difficulty vs. 32% of nonvoters 9% whites vs. 19% non-whites reported difficulty 7% seniors vs. 25% young adults
  4. PRRI re-percentaged two-part vote: 52% republican vs. 48% democratic candidate White Christians: 26% democratic candidate vs. 64% republican candidate Nonwhite Christians: 72% democratic candidate vs. 23% republican candidate
  5. Non-white vote: 72% democrat vs. 21% republican In 2012 house vote, WWC voted 55% republican, 35% democrat (2012 post-election AVS) ->Dems down 9 points among WWC
  6. 20% of 2012 Obama voters reported staying home vs. 14% of 2012 Romney voters
  7. 57% said Obama was liberal in 2012, 7 points lower than today.