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Midterm election recap
- 1. N o ve m b e r 7 , 2 0 1 8 B a s e d o n p r e l i m i n a r y i n f o r m a t i o n a n d e x i t p o l l i n g , s u b j e c t t o c h a n g e . Midterm Election Recap
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- 3. Midterm Election Recap November20183 The Historical Perspective: The President’s Party Generally Loses Seats in the First Midter m President Year Senate Seats Lost/Gained House Seats Lost/Gained Shift in power in at least one chamber? Gerald Ford (R) 1974 -3 -43 No: Democrats retain both chambers Jimmy Carter (D) 1978 -3 -11 No: Democrats retain both chambers Ronald Reagan (R) 1982 - -26 No: GOP retains Senate, Democrats retain House George H. W. Bush (R) 1990 -1 -8 No: Democrats retain both chambers Bill Clinton (D) 1994 -8 -52 Yes: GOP takes both chambers George W. Bush (R) 2002 +2 +6 Yes: GOP retains House and takes Senate Barack Obama (D) 2010 -6 -63 Yes: GOP takes House, Democrats retain Senate
- 4. Midterm Election Recap November20184 Going Into the Midter ms, Most Americans Said the Economy was Getting Better U nem pl o ym ent i s l o w er t han at any o t her po i nt i n t he Tr um p pres i denc y. 4.8% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% Jan 2017 June 2017 Nov 2017 Apr 2018 Sept 2018 57% 55% 57% 55% 56% 54% 46% 52% 55% 50% 34% 37% 38% 38% 35% 41% 45% 39% 36% 43% 6% 6% 4% 5% 7% 4% 7% 7% 7% 5% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% Jan-18 Feb-18 M ar-18 Apr-18 M ay-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 O ct-18 Unemployment Getting better Getting worse Same No opinion Do you think that the economic conditions in the country as a whole are getting better or getting worse? Sources: NCSL (http://www.ncsl.org/research/labor-and-employment/national-employment-monthly-update.aspx) and Gallup (https://news.gallup.com/poll/1609/consumer-views-economy.aspx)
- 5. Midterm Election Recap November20185 But Based on Exit Polling, the Economy Wasn’t the Most Important Issue 36% say family’s financial situation is better today than two years ago. Have new tax laws helped or hurt? 41% health care 23% immigration 22% economy 10% gun control Most important issue 29% 22% 45% HELPED HURT NO IMPACT Source: 2018 Exit Polls
- 6. Midterm Election Recap November20186 It was Health Care and Democrats Had the Advantage 41% health care 23% immigration 22% economy 10% gun control Most important issue: 69% say we need major changes to health care in the U.S. Who would better protect pre-existing conditions? 57% Democrats 35% Republicans Source: 2018 Exit Polls
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- 8. Midterm Election Recap November20188 116th House: Democrats Will Gain the Majority by at Least 27 Seats Democrats: 225 Republicans: 199 Undeclared: 11
- 9. 116th Senate: RepublicansWill Keep the Majority and Gain at Least Three Seats Midterm Election Recap November 20189 Denotes flipped seat *Two independents caucus with Democrats Florida’s Senator Nelson has called for a recount. Democrats: 46* Republicans: 51 Independents: 2 Undeclared: 3
- 10. Midterm Election Recap November201810 Denotes flipped seat 1. Maine (Mills) 2. Wisconsin (Evers) 3. Illinois (Pritzker) 4. Michigan (Whitmer) 5. Kansas (Kelly) 6. New Mexico(Grisham) 7. Nevada (Sisolak) 8. Alaska (Dunleavy) 2019 Gover nors: Democrats Gain Seven Seats Democrats: 23 Republicans: 26 Undeclared: 1
- 11. Midterm Election Recap November201811 2019 State Legislatures: Democrats Gain Control of Five State Houses Democrats: 18 Republicans: 30 Split: 1 Nonpartisan: 1 Denotes change in power 1. Alaska 2. Colorado 3. Maine 4. New Hampshire 5. New York 6. Connecticut 7. Minnesota
- 12. Midterm Election Recap November201812 Women Ran in Record Numbers and Won Key Races 23 women are projected to serve in 116th Senate 98 women are projected to serve in 116th House 9 women are projected to serve as Governors in 2019 Holding from 23 in the 115th +14 from 84 +2 from 7 Arizona elects its first female Senator: • Either Kyrsten Sinema or Martha McSally Tennessee elects its first female Senator: • Marsha Blackburn South Dakota elects its first female Governor: • Kristi Noem *Note: these numbers reflect voting members only
- 13. Midterm Election Recap November201813 Other Notable Firsts First openly gay governor: • Jared Polis (D, CO) First Muslim women elected to the House of Representatives: • Rashida Tlaib (D, MI-13) • Ilhan Omar (D, MN-5) First Native American women elected to the House of Representatives: • Sharice Davids (D, KS-3) • Deb Haaland (D, NM-1) Youngest Congresswomen elected (both are 29 years old): • Abby Finkenauer (D, IA-1) • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D, NY-14) 1 2 3 4
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- 15. Midterm Election Recap November201815 Preliminary Tur nout Numbers are High Compared to Previous Midter ms 114 million 2018 2014 2010 83 million 91 million Source: 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 Exit Polls
- 16. Midterm Election Recap November201816 37% 30% 33% DemocratsRepublicans Independents Independents Broke for Democrats for the First Time Since 2008 54% of Independents voted for Democrats Source: 2018 Exit Polls
- 17. Midterm Election Recap November201817 Women Voted for Democrats in Greater Margins 56% 49% 55% 51% 54% 59% 43% 51% 44% 47% 41% 40% 1% 0% 1% 2% 5% 1% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Democrats Republicans Other (53%) (53%) (53%) (51%) (53%) (52%) Source: 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 Exit Polls
- 18. Midterm Election Recap November201818 Young Voters Also Voted for Democrats by Wider Margins 66% 58% 60% 54% 55% 67% 32% 42% 45% 43% 36% 32% 2% 0% 3% 3% 9% 1% 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Democrats Republicans Other (18%) (11%) (19%) (13%) (19%) (13%) Source: 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018 Exit Polls *18-29 year olds
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- 20. Midterm Election Recap November201820 Opinion of Key Figures Favorable Unfavorable Democratic Party 48% 47% Republican Party 44% 52% President Trump* 45% 54% *Numbers for President Trump are for approve/disapprove. Nancy Pelosi 31% 56% Source: 2018 Exit Polls
- 21. Midterm Election Recap November201821 Voters Split on Trump Immigration Policies Half say they are about right or not tough enough. Are Donald Trump’s immigration policies: 46% 17% 33% TOO TOUGH NOT TOUGH ENOUGH ABOUT RIGHT 75% voted for Republicans Among the 23% who felt immigration was most important 50% Source: 2018 Exit Polls
- 22. Midterm Election Recap November201822 Voters are Not in Favor of Investigations Should Congress impeach Donald Trump? View of Mueller’s handling of Russia investigation: 39% 56% YES NO 54% say the Russia investigation is politically motivated 41% Approve 46% Disapprove Source: 2018 Exit Polls
- 23. 1025 F StreetNW, 9th Floor Washington, DC 20004 121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor New York, NY 10010 202.337.0808 | GPG.COM GPG Research GPG has a full-service research team offering a full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion, as well as digital, research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns. GPG has extensive experience conducting research on complex issues and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Madeline McKiernan (mmckiernan@gpg.com) Katie Cissel Greenway (katie@gpg.com)