The document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of October 2015. It summarizes several national polls showing that most Americans feel the country is headed in the wrong direction and are split on whether they prefer a candidate with political experience or an outsider. The polls also show Donald Trump leading the Republican primary field but Ben Carson gaining momentum, while Hillary Clinton maintains a lead over Bernie Sanders in Democratic polls. The document analyzes fundraising and other election metrics through October 2015.
As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.
As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
ОПРОС: КТО ПОБЕДИТ ТРАМПА НА СЛЕДУЮЩИХ ВЫБОРАХmResearcher
Если президент США Дональд Трамп будет баллотироваться на второй президентский срок, он столкнется с серьезной конкуренцией со стороны американских политиков и лидеров общественного мнения
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID TheftKyle J. Britt
In 2010 my identity was stolen. I first realized it thanks to a targeted ad. But ever since then, my identity is tangled up with another real Kyle Britt. You wouldn’t believe how hard that is to fix.
GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls on a wide range of key economic issues on everything from how the public views the current state of the economy to views on trade.
ОПРОС: КТО ПОБЕДИТ ТРАМПА НА СЛЕДУЮЩИХ ВЫБОРАХmResearcher
Если президент США Дональд Трамп будет баллотироваться на второй президентский срок, он столкнется с серьезной конкуренцией со стороны американских политиков и лидеров общественного мнения
A Tale of Two Kyles: How Ad Data Exposed My ID TheftKyle J. Britt
In 2010 my identity was stolen. I first realized it thanks to a targeted ad. But ever since then, my identity is tangled up with another real Kyle Britt. You wouldn’t believe how hard that is to fix.
Very Technology: Marketing on Mobile PlatformsBranded Ltd
Marketing on mobile platforms, Harnessing WeChat for direct sales: Case studies of what works and its return on investment.
- Online to offline engagement: How are the most successful brands utilising WeChat for sales?
- How are brands integrating WeChat strategies into the rest of the marketing mix?
- What are the three key ingredients to maximise business outcomes for brands using WeChat?
Speaker: Milan Chiang, CEO, VeryTechnology
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President TrumpLangerResearch
Presented at AAPOR 2017 by Sofi Sinozich, Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates, and Gregory Holyk, Senior Research Analyst at Langer Research Associates
Certus Insights Special Report: Overview of Polling and Media Coverage on Imp...Natalie Copeland
An in-depth report that reviews the major trends on public attitudes toward the impeachment inquiry, including the latest polling numbers, trends in attitudes since the inquiry announcement, an overview of partisan attitudes, and the impact of impeachment on the President’s approval ratings. The report also details media coverage of the impeachment, examining the amount of coverage, comparisons of the coverage to the Mueller investigation, most shared publications, and most shared news articles.
As the midterm elections have come and gone, we can now look back on the issues that voters cared about most, where voter opinions lie on key issues, and more. Our Research team compiled the most pertinent results in their Midterm Election Recap deck.
On Election Day of 2014, Republicans won a big victory. And it really was a “Wave” victory, bigger than 2010 in a lot of important ways despite the fact that you'd never know it listening to the mainstream media.
Just because it was more or less expected doesn't make it less of a major thrashing than 2010 was.
One of the reasons it was so big and so important is that the GOP didn't win the same way everywhere. In 2010 the pattern was pretty consistent across the country.
In 2014 Republicans again won big, but it's a little more complicated how. And that's important as we look toward 2016 and beyond.
Obama thinks the election wasn't about him. Some political scientists are already trying to make hand-waving arguments that Republicans didn't win groups that exit polls show they won.
So, what should Republicans take from the 2014 Election? Here are five important lessons:
1) Obama's policies were on the ballot, as he said. But to dismiss 2014 as only about Obama is both to diminish the massive size of the Republican victory and to miss the important lessons of the election. This was a complete rejection of Democrats and liberal policies.
2) The return of working class whites (aka, Reagan Democrats, Angry White Males, Tea Party Voters) to the polls proves that 2010 was not a fluke and teaches Republicans an important lesson for 2016:
The GOP must have a nominee, and candidates up and down the ballot, who can connect with this populist voting block.
3) Despite their vaunted turnout technology, Democrats didn't fully get the Obama coalition to the polls. This raises real questions about the replicability of African American turnout without Obama at the top of the ticket.
Where Democrats did get other parts of their coalition out, the messaging required likely cost them more votes elsewhere than it earned them in turnout (e.g., Udall in Colorado).
4) The GOP has messages and candidates who can win in a diverse array of states. The message of a David Perdue in Georgia, a Greg Abbott in Texas, and a Larry Hogan in Maryland shared some basic similarities. But they were also each somewhat unique to the candidate and situation.
5) Outside of African Americans (persuading whom is going to be the work of many campaigns) 2014 proved that Republicans can win Asians nationally and can come very close to splitting Hispanics in a race with the right message and campaign.
The myth of Republicans as the white party is just that: a myth. Toward that point, the GOP must continue a robust campaign toward all demographic groups.
The 2016 election american foreign and economic policy viewsPew Research Center
Bruce Stokes, Director of Global Economic Attitudes, examines Americans’ foreign and economic policy views in the context of the 2016 U.S. presidential election in Stockholm, Sweden on January 14, 2016. Pulling from a wide array of survey data, he discusses Americans’ foreign policy priorities as well as views on terrorism, tensions with Russia, relations with China and trade. This presentation is based primarily on two surveys: one conducted by telephone in the U.S. December 8-13, 2015 among 1,500 adults 18 and older, and the other conducted in 40 countries among 45,435 adults 18 and older via telephone and face-to-face interviews from March 25 to May 27, 2015.
This week’s Reuters/Ipsos Core Political release presents something of an outlier of our trend. Every series of polls has the occasional outlier and in our opinion this is one. So, while we are reporting the findings in the interest of transparency, we will not be announcing the start of a new trend until we have more data to validate this pattern.
Report: Understanding Policy Influencers’ Priorities in a Post-COVID WorldGloverParkGroup
The Glover Park Group has been hosting regular in-depth conversations with Americans to understand how they are feeling amidst COVID-19. We also wanted to gauge how those who are actively influencing policy are reacting to the pandemic and how it will impact the policy landscape moving forward.
In this latest public opinion landscape, GPG's Research and Insights team look at tax reform, DACA, gun control, and the Russia Investigation, as well as a look ahead to the 2018 midterms.
As the UK nears a vote on whether to remain in or leave the EU, GPG takes a look at publicly-released polls out of the UK along with American and European views on the EU and various issues.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
3. PAGE 3
O N LY O N E I N F O U R A M E R ICA NS F E E L T H E N AT I ON I S H E A DING IN
T H E R I G H T D I R E CTI ON
The percentage of
Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50%
in about a decade.
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of October 26, 2015
RIGHT DIRECTION 27.2%
WRONG TRACK 64.2%
4. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 4
L A R G E PA R TI SAN D I V ID E O V E R P R E F ER ENCE F O R E X P ER IEN CE
O R F O R O U T S I DER
All else equal, wouldyou like the next president to be someone who has experience in how the political
system works, or someone from outside the existing political establishment?
76%
21%
39%
57%
Prefer someone with
experience
Prefer a political
outsider
Republicans
Democrats
5. Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 5
A M E R IC ANS A R E S P L I T O N W H AT PA R TY C O N T ROLL ING T H E
W H I T E H O U S E W O U LD B E B E T T E R F O R T H E C O U NTRY
Democrat
41%
Neither a Republican
or Democrat/ Some
other party
5%
Makes no difference
9%
Not sure
5%
Republican
40% Do you think it would be better for the country to have a
Democrat or a Republican as the next president?
6. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON
7. PAGE 7
S TA G E I S S E T F O R N E X T G O P D E B ATE
CNBC, 6pm / 8 p.m. ET, October 28 in Boulder, CO.
8. PAGE 8
T R U M P H A S B E E N L E A DI NG G O P R A C E
Source: NBC News / Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
22%
14%
7%
8%
4%
9%
5%
9%
14%
5%
11% 13%
11% 10%
20%
22%
1%
19%
21%
25%
June July Sept Oct
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Carson Trump
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 32.5%
Ben Carson 22.6%
Marco Rubio 7.7%
Jeb Bush 7.4%
Ted Cruz 5.1%
Carly Fiorina 4.8%
Mike Huckabee 3.8%
John Kasich 2.8%
Rand Paul 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.4%
Lindsey Graham 1.2%
Bobby Jindal 0.7%
Rick Santorum 0.7%
George Pataki 0.4%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of October 28, 2015
9. Source: CBS/New York Times Poll, October 21-25, 2015 PAGE 9
B U T S O M E R E C EN T S I G NS O F # C A R SO NMENT UM A M O N G
R E P U BL ICA NS N AT I ONAL LY
7%
7%
8%
22%
26%
Carly Fiorina
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
*only showing
candidateswith
more than 5%
Which one of these candidates would you like to see theRepublicanParty
nominate for President in 2016?*Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters
Mind made up 28%
Too early 71%
Don’t know/NA 1%
Asked of people who picked a
candidate: Is your mind made up or
is it still too early to say for sure?
10. PAGE 10
A N D M O R E G O P V O T E RS C A N S E E T H E M SELV ES S U P P ORTI NG
C A R S ON O R R U B I O T H A N T R U MP
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
50% 49%
69%
74%
74%
62% 63% 65%
32%
47% 47%
59%
31%
33%
61% 56%
75%
57%
55% 51%
June July September October
Carson Rubio Trump Fiorina Bush
Next, I’m going to mention
a number of people who
might seek the Republican
nomination for president in
2016. For each one, please
tell me, yes or no, whether
you could see yourself
supporting that person for
the Republican nomination
for president in 2016.
% could see self supporting
11. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 11
T H E M O R E R E P U BLI CANS H E A R A B O U T B E N C A R SO N T H E M O R E
T H E Y L I K E H I M ; O P P O SI TE E F F E CT F O R J E B B U S H
64%
52%
47%
41%
47%
41%
18%
29% 30%
33%
45%
47%
Ben Carson Marco Rubio Carly Fiorina Ted Cruz DonaldTrump Jeb Bush
The more you like him/her The less you like him/her
Regardless of who you may
support, would you say that the
more you hear about [CANDIDATE]
the more you like him/her, or the
more you hear about [CANDIDATE]
the less you like him/her?
12. Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data PAGE 12
R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E H I S T ORI CAL LY N O M INAT ED E A R LY F R O NT-
R U N N ERS
Republican trial-heat poll closest to October of year prior to election
Date First place for nomination
Second place for nomination
or nominee
October 2011 Mitt Romney (20%) Herman Cain (18%)
October 2007 Rudy Giuliani (32%) John McCain (16%)
October 1999 George W. Bush (60%) Elizabeth Dole (11%)
September 1995 Bob Dole (46%) Phil Gramm (10%)
October 1987 George Bush (41%) Bob Dole (24%)
November 1979 Ronald Reagan (41%) Howard Baker (18%)
October 1975 Gerald Ford (48%) Ronald Reagan (25%)
October 1967 Richard Nixon (42%) Nelson Rockefeller (15%)
October 1963 Barry Goldwater (45%) Nelson Rockefeller (23%)
October 1959 Richard Nixon (67%) Nelson Rockefeller (19%)
13. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 13
T R U M P L E A DS O N R E P U BL ICA N E X P E CTATI ONS T O W I N B O T H
T H E G O P N O M I NAT ION A N D H AV IN G T H E B E S T C H A NC E T O W I N
T H E G E N E R AL E L E CTI ON
42%
15%
12%
5%
43%
16%
13%
11%
4% 3%
Donald
Trump
Ben
Carson
Jeb Bush Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Ben
Carson
Jeb Bush Marco
Rubio
Ted Cruz Carly
Fiorina
Mostlikely to win
GOP nomination
Bestchance to win
the generalelection
Regardless of who you
may support, which
candidate do you think
is most likely to win the
Republican nomination
for president? Thinking
about the candidates
who do you think [has
the best chance of
getting elected
president in November
2016]?
14. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October, 15-18, 2015 PAGE 14
T R U M P L E A DS O N A L M O S T A L L AT T R IBU TES; C A R SO N L E A DS
W I T H H O N ES TY A N D P E R S ONA LIT Y; B U S H H A S T H E E X P E RIE NCE
Strongest
leader
Best
chance
Best on
immigration
Closest
on issues
Understands
your
problems
Best
experience
Most honest
Best
personality
Trump 47% 43% 39% 32% 29% 23% 21% 19%
Carson 9% 16% 9% 19% 19% 8% 33% 24%
Fiorina 6% 3% 4% 6% 8% 3% 7% 10%
Bush 12% 13% 13% 11% 10% 31% 10% 15%
Rubio 11% 11% 15% 11% 13% 12% 10% 14%
Cruz 8% 4% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 5%
Thinking about six of thesecandidates – (Trump) (Carson) (Fiorina) (Bush) (Rubio) (Cruz) – who do you think is/has the [ATTRIBUTE]?
15. PAGE 15
C A R S ON L E A DS T R U MP I N A L L B U T O N E R E C E NT P O L L O U T O F
I O WA
19%
18%
27%
19%
20%
31%
32%
27%
28% 28%
Loras College
(Oct. 19-22)
Monmouth
(Oct. 22-25)
CBS/YouGov
(Oct. 15-22)
DMR/Bloomberg
(Oct. 16-19)
Quinnipiac
(Oct. 14-20)
Donald Trump Ben Carson
CARSON
+11
CARSON
+14
EVEN
CARSON
+9
CARSON
+8
Source: Loras College Poll, October 19-22, Monmouth Poll, October 22-25, CBS/YouGov Poll, October 15-22, Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Poll, October 16-19, Quinnipiac Poll, October 14-20
16. Source: YouGov/CBS Poll, October 15-22, 2015 PAGE 16
H O W E VER , T R U MP M A I N TAIN S H I S L E A D I N B O T H N E W
H A M P SH IRE A N D S O U T H C A R O LI NA
Candidate New Hampshire
Donald Trump 38%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush 8%
Carly Fiorina 7%
Marco Rubio 7%
Candidate South Carolina
Donald Trump 40%
Ben Carson 23%
Ted Cruz 8%
Marco Rubio 7%
Jeb Bush 6%
17. PAGE 17
T H E M O N E Y R A C E
Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups
18. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N
19. PAGE 19
P O S T- DEBAT E, C L I N TON R E C EIV ES B I G G ES T B O O ST I N N U MBERS
A C R O SS VA R IOUS P O L LS
Source: Five Thirty Eight, October 2015
Change in candidate support, pre- to post-debate
POLLSTER Clinton Sanders
ABC/Washington Post +11 -4
CNN/ORC -1 +5
Emerson +15 -9
Monmouth +4 -5
Morning Consult +2 +2
NBC/WSJ +5 -5
Average +6.0 -2.7
20. PAGE 20Source: Huffpollster, October 2015
W I T H OUT B I D E N I N T H E R A C E , C L I N TON’ S L E A D O V E R S A N D ERS
G R O W S
With Biden Without Biden
POLLSTER Clinton Sanders Biden Clinton Sanders
ABC/Post 54% 23% 16% 64% 25%
Monmouth University 48% 21% 17% 57% 24%
NBC/WSJ 49% 29% 15% 58% 33%
CNN 45% 29% 18% 56% 33%
YouGov/ Economist 48% 23% 20% 59% 29%
CBS 46% 27% 16% 56% 32%
Average 48% 25% 58% 29%
Clinton-Sanders margin +23 +29
21. PAGE 21
T H E M O N E Y R A C E
Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups
22. PAGE 22
T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS
Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
6%
10%
17%
19%
34%
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
PredictWiseChance ofWinningRepublican Nomination
0%
13%
88%
Martin
O'Malley
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWiseChance ofWinningDemocratic Nomination
Only showing above5%
23. PAGE 23
B U T D O E S I T E V E N M AT T ER: A P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R ICA NS D O N ’ T
P L A N O N V O T I NG I N T H E P R I M ARI ES AT A L L
Vote in Democratic
Primary
31%
Waituntil the
generalelection
34%Do not plan to vote at all,
1%
Not sure
3%
Vote in Republican
Primary
31%
If there were a primary election in your
state, wouldyou vote in the Democratic
primary, the Republican primary, or would
you wait to vote in the general election?
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
24. PAGE 24
48% 48%47% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JebBush
HillaryClinton
BenCarson
BenCarson
BenCarson
HillaryClinton
BernieSanders
HillaryClinton
Source: CNN / ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015
45% 44%
50%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JebBush
HillaryClinton
BenCarson
BernieSanders
DonaldTrump
JoeBiden
DonaldTrump
JoeBiden
C A R S ON P E R FORM S B E T T ER T H A N T R U MP I N P O T E NTI AL H E A D-
T O - H EA D M AT CHUP S W I T H D E M O CRATI C C A N D IDATE S
25. PAGE 25
M O R E A M E RI CAN S E X P E CT C L I NTO N O V E R A N Y O T H E R
C A N D ID ATE T O W I N T H E P R E S I DENC Y I N N O V E MB ER 2 0 1 6
Source: ABC News/ Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015
37%
48%
7%
7%
20%
37%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Republican mentions
Democratic mentions
Bernie Sanders
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
[Open Ended] Who do you
expect to win the
presidency in November
2016?
26. PAGE 26
R E P U BL ICA NS M O R E L I K ELY T O B E E X T R E MELY/ VERY
E N T H US IAS TIC A B O U T T H E U P C OM ING E L E C TI ON
Source: CNN Poll, October 14-17, 2015
68%
18%
12%
58%
22% 21%
Extremely/Very enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not too/Not at all enthusiastic
Republicans Democrats
How enthusiastic wouldyou say you are
about voting for president in next year’s
election – extremely enthusiastic,very
enthusiastic,somewhatenthusiastic,not
too enthusiastic,or not at all enthusiastic?
28. PAGE 28
E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016
Date State
Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus)
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary)
Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary)
Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus)
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Texas, Georgia, Tennessee,
Alabama,Arkansas
Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)
95 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS
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