This document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of April 2016. It finds that interest in the election is higher than previous years. There is also declining faith in the primary system and public's political wisdom. On the Republican side, Trump has won the most states and delegates so far and has led in national polling since September. For Democrats, Clinton has a strong delegate lead over Sanders though Sanders has narrowed the gap in national polls. Upcoming April primaries that could impact the races are examined.

1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
April 19, 2016

2. 2 0 1 6 – M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

3. PAGE 3
GREAT ER I NT EREST I N T HI S YEAR’ S PRESI DENT I AL CAMPAI GN
T HAN PREVI OUS YEARS
45%
60%
78%
66%
85%
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% registered voters who say they have given ‘quite a lot’ of thought to the
coming presidential elections
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016

4. PAGE 4
L OSS OF FAI T H I N PRI MARY SYST EM AND PUBL I C’ S POL I T I CAL
W I SDOM
59%
31% 33%
40%
42% 43%
30%
35%
1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
% voters who say that so far, primaries have
been a good way of determining best-
qualified nominees
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016
69%
58%
32%
59%
61%
35%
1997 2007 2016
% voters who have a great deal or good deal of
confidence in the political wisdom of American
public…
Democrats Republicans

5. PAGE 5
T OO MUCH NEW S COVERAGE ON T RUMP, NOT ENOUGH ON
KASI CH
7%
14%
16%
41%
75%
29%
53%
57%
48%
19%
60%
29%
23%
8%
3%
Kasich
Sanders
Cruz
Clinton
Trump
% registered voters saying news organizations have given ____ of coverage to each…
Too much
About right
Not enough
Source: Pew Research, March 17-27, 2016

6. 2016 – E LE C TI O N P R E V I E W – TH E P R E S I D E N C Y :
R E P U B LI C A N N O M I N A TI O N

7. PAGE 7
W I NNERS OF EACH STAT E PRI MARY/ CAUC US SO FAR
Donald Trump
(20)
Ted Cruz
(11)
Marco Rubio
(1)
Also won DC & Puerto Rico
John Kasich
(1)

8. PAGE 8
T RUMP I S W I NNI NG T HE DEL EGAT E RACE SO FAR
Current Delegate Count
2,472 Delegates to the Convention
168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%)
1,237 Needed to Win
744
559
144
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Source: Associated Press
More than one in 10
delegates will go to
the convention in
Cleveland either
unpledged or
pledged to a defunct
campaign.

9. PAGE 9
T RUMP HAS L ED I N NAT I ONAL POL L I NG SI NCE SEPT EMBER
Cruz and Kasich See Uptick as Other Candidates Have Dropped Out
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3%
7%
20% 18%
6% 5% 6% 6%
8%
13%
18% 17%
32%
28%
5%
15%
31%
28% 28%
34%
39%
43%
45% 44%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among Republican and Republican leaning voters
Kasich Cruz Trump

10. PAGE 10
NEW YORK – W HAT ’ S AT STAKE?
Source: Huffington Post
New York Primary Information
When?
Tuesday,
April 19th
Number of
Delegates
95
Voter Eligibility Closed Primary
Delegate
Selection
Proportional
(Winner take most)
Polls are giving Trump
54% of the support in
the New York primary.
5%
20%
22%
14%
14%
19%
34%
48%
54%
Feb. March April
2016 New York Republican Primary
Preference
Among New York Republican and Republican leaning
voters
Kasich Cruz Trump

11. 2016 – E LE C TI O N P R E V I E W – TH E P R E S I D E N C Y :
D E M O C R A TI C N O M I N A TI O N

12. PAGE 12
W I NNERS OF EACH STAT E PRI MARY/ CAUC US SO FAR
Bernie Sanders
(15)
Hillary Clinton
(19)

13. PAGE 13
CL I NT ON HAS ST RONG L EAD W I T H DEL GAT ES
Source NY Times
1289
1045
469
31
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Clinton
Sanders
Delegates
Superdelegates
1,758
1,076
4,763 Delegates to the Convention
4,051 Pledged delegates
712 Superdelegates
2,382 Needed to Win (50% of total)
Current Delegate Count

14. PAGE 14
ALT HOUGH SANDERS HAS NARROW ED T HE L EAD I N NAT I ONAL
POL L S, PREDI CT I ON MARKET S ST I L L FAVOR CL I NT ON
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-March, 2016
12%
17% 18%
24% 25%
30% 31%
34%
39%
42%
46%
60% 58%
54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%
51% 51%
48%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
92%
8%
Clinton Sanders
Chances of becoming the Democratic
presidential nominee

15. PAGE 15
NEW YORK – W HAT ’ S AT STAKE?
Source: The New York Times
New Hampshire Primary Information
When? Tuesday, April 19th
Number of
Delegates
291
Voter Eligibility Closed Primary
Delegate Selection Proportional
55% 54%
55%
33%
38%
42%
Feb. March April
2016 New York Democratic Primary
Preference
Among New York Democratic and Democratic leaning
voters
Clinton Sanders
Clinton leads Sanders
55% to 42% in the latest
polling average.

16. W H A T ’S N E X T ?

17. PAGE 17
W HAT ’ S AT STAKE – L AT E APRI L
Source : New York Times and The Green Papers
Voter Eligibility Democratic
Delegate
Counts
(Allocation)
Republican
Delegate
Counts
(Allocation)
Pennsylvania Closed 210
(Proportional)
71
(Winner-take-all)
Maryland Closed 118
(Proportional)
38
(Winner-take-all)
Rhode Island Modified 33
(Proportional)
19
(Proportional)
Connecticut Closed 71
(Proportional)
28
(Winner-take-
most)
Delaware Closed 31
(Proportional)
16
(Winner-take-all)
April 26th Primary Details
Clinton Sanders
Pennsylvania 52.1% 35.8%
Maryland 60.3% 36.2%
Trump Cruz Kasich
Penn-
sylvania
44.3% 26.7% 25.3%
Maryland 41.0% 25.5% 27.0%
April 26th PollingAverages

18. PAGE 18
W HAT ’ S ON TAP I N MAY (PRI MARI ES/ CA UC US ES)
Primaries/Caucuses in May
Date Republican Democrat
May 3 IN IN
May 10 NE, WV WV
May 17 OR KY, OR
May 24 WA

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