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Public
Religion
Research
Institute
Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO
Daniel Cox, Director of Research
Old Alignments, Emerging Fault Lines:
Religion in the 2010 Election & Beyond
An Analysis of the Post-Election American Values Survey
The 2010 Election and Aftermath
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines
Stable Religious Alignments
Modest Direct Influence of Religion
2
Stable Religious Alignments in 2010
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 3
47
71
56
56
23
26
42
18
34
35
68
57
0 20 40 60 80 100
Total
White Evangelical
White mainline
White Catholic
Minority Christian
Unaffiliated
Religious Vote 2010
Republican candidate Democratic candidate
Influence of Religion Mostly Unchanged
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 4
6
73
8
13
Role of Faith and Religious Values in Vote
Larger role
Same role
Smaller role
Does not play a role
Most Important Issue in 2010 Election
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 5
47
19
16
5 4 3 3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
The economy Health care Size and role
of
government
Iraq and
Afghanistan
Immigration Same-sex
marriage
Abortion
Most Important Issue to Vote
Second Most Important Issue
in 2010 Election
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 6
40
27
17
8
3 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Health care Size and role of
government
Iraq and
Afghanistan
Immigration Same-sex
marriage
Abortion
Second Most Important Issue to Vote
Among those who said economy most important…
What Americans Heard in Church
Before the Election
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 7
14
11
34
13 11
17
6
11
31
13
9
56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Health care reform Proper role and size of
government
Abortion
Hearing about Election Issues in Church
Among those attending at least a few times a month...
Total White mainline White evangelical Catholic
Feelings about the Election
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 8
30
54
6 4
1
22
59
10
5
11
24
46
22
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Excited Satisfied Disappointed Worried Angry
Feelings about Election Outcome
Among voters...
Tea Party Republican Democrat
Most Important Priorities for Obama and
Democrats in Congress
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 9
40
30
11
8
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ensure health
care is fully
funded
Cut taxes for
Americans
making less
$250K
Pass economic
stimulus bill
Pass
comprehensive
immigration
reform
Pass climate
change
legislation
Top Priorities for Obama and Congressional Democrats
Among Democratic Voters
Most Important Priorities for GOP
Congress
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 10
36
29
17
8
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Repeal health
care reform law
Balance federal
budget
Cut taxes for all
Americans
Investigate
Obama
administration
Cut spending on
social services
Top Priorities for GOP Congress
Among Republican Voters
EMERGING FAULT LINES
Obama’s Religion Dilemma
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 11
Views of President Obama’s Religious Beliefs
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines
12
28
16
35
9
Among General Population…
Very similar
Somewhat similar
Somewhat
different
Very different
Don't know
9
26
18
38
9
Among Whites…
12
Impact of Views of President Obama’s
Religious Beliefs on Favorability
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines
24
51
39
17
7
32
43
47
39
13
17
3
7
23
27
25
3
6
21
51
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Total
Very similar
Somewhat similar
Somewhat different
Very different
Favorability of Obama
Very favorable Mostly favorable Mostly unfavorable Very unfavorable
13
EMERGING FAULT LINES
Potential Tensions in the GOP Coalition
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 14
Different Factors Motivating Vote
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 15
37
25
22
11
28
37
29
5
27
25
27
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
To Help the GOP win
control of Congress
To Oppose President
Obama
Against Washington
in general
About local issues
Was your vote mostly...
Among Voters
Republican Tea Party White evangelical
Priorities for Republicans in Congress
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 16
36
29
17
8
6
41
23
18
4
9
32
40
14
8
4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Repeal health
care reform law
Balance federal
budget
Cut taxes for all
Americans
Investigate
Obama
administration
Cut spending on
social services
Priorities for GOP Congress
Among all
Republican Tea Party White Evangelical
Tensions over Discrimination, Race, and
Equal Opportunity
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 17
41
37
41
46
38
50
58 58
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Discrimination against women
no longer problem
Minorities get too much
government attention
Not a problem if some have
more chances in life
Issues of Discrimination and Equal Opportunity
Total White Evangelical Tea Party
EMERGING FAULT LINES
Attitudes Towards Islam
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 18
Islam and American Values
Percent who agree:
The values of Islam, the
Muslim religion, are at
odds with American
Values.
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 19
45
36
44
49
51
31
44
46
38
48
30
43
67
66
28
45
47
53
57
-10 10 30 50 70
Total
18-29
30-49
50-64
65+
Black
Hispanic
White
College graduate
Not college graduate
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Tea Party
Unaffiliated
Minority Christian
White mainline
Catholic
White evangelical
EMERGING FAULT LINES
American Exceptionalism and Foreign Policy
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 20
American Exceptionalism
by Religious Tradition
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 21
58
32
53
54
67
83
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Total
Unaffiliated
White Mainline
Catholics
Minority Christians
White Evangelicals
God has granted America a special role in human history.
% Agreeing
American Exceptionalism and Foreign Policy
Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 22
52
55
26
42
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Best way to ensure peace through military
strength
Torture can be justified
American Exceptionalism and Foreign Policy
Among whites...
God granted U.S. special role No special role
Old Alignments, Emerging Fault Lines:
Religion in the 2010 Election & Beyond
An Analysis of the Post-Election American Values Survey

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Old Alignments, New Fault Lines: The 2010 Post-Election American Values Survey

  • 1. Public Religion Research Institute Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Daniel Cox, Director of Research Old Alignments, Emerging Fault Lines: Religion in the 2010 Election & Beyond An Analysis of the Post-Election American Values Survey
  • 2. The 2010 Election and Aftermath Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines Stable Religious Alignments Modest Direct Influence of Religion 2
  • 3. Stable Religious Alignments in 2010 Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 3 47 71 56 56 23 26 42 18 34 35 68 57 0 20 40 60 80 100 Total White Evangelical White mainline White Catholic Minority Christian Unaffiliated Religious Vote 2010 Republican candidate Democratic candidate
  • 4. Influence of Religion Mostly Unchanged Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 4 6 73 8 13 Role of Faith and Religious Values in Vote Larger role Same role Smaller role Does not play a role
  • 5. Most Important Issue in 2010 Election Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 5 47 19 16 5 4 3 3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 The economy Health care Size and role of government Iraq and Afghanistan Immigration Same-sex marriage Abortion Most Important Issue to Vote
  • 6. Second Most Important Issue in 2010 Election Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 6 40 27 17 8 3 2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Health care Size and role of government Iraq and Afghanistan Immigration Same-sex marriage Abortion Second Most Important Issue to Vote Among those who said economy most important…
  • 7. What Americans Heard in Church Before the Election Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 7 14 11 34 13 11 17 6 11 31 13 9 56 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Health care reform Proper role and size of government Abortion Hearing about Election Issues in Church Among those attending at least a few times a month... Total White mainline White evangelical Catholic
  • 8. Feelings about the Election Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 8 30 54 6 4 1 22 59 10 5 11 24 46 22 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Excited Satisfied Disappointed Worried Angry Feelings about Election Outcome Among voters... Tea Party Republican Democrat
  • 9. Most Important Priorities for Obama and Democrats in Congress Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 9 40 30 11 8 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Ensure health care is fully funded Cut taxes for Americans making less $250K Pass economic stimulus bill Pass comprehensive immigration reform Pass climate change legislation Top Priorities for Obama and Congressional Democrats Among Democratic Voters
  • 10. Most Important Priorities for GOP Congress Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 10 36 29 17 8 6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Repeal health care reform law Balance federal budget Cut taxes for all Americans Investigate Obama administration Cut spending on social services Top Priorities for GOP Congress Among Republican Voters
  • 11. EMERGING FAULT LINES Obama’s Religion Dilemma Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 11
  • 12. Views of President Obama’s Religious Beliefs Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 12 28 16 35 9 Among General Population… Very similar Somewhat similar Somewhat different Very different Don't know 9 26 18 38 9 Among Whites… 12
  • 13. Impact of Views of President Obama’s Religious Beliefs on Favorability Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 24 51 39 17 7 32 43 47 39 13 17 3 7 23 27 25 3 6 21 51 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Total Very similar Somewhat similar Somewhat different Very different Favorability of Obama Very favorable Mostly favorable Mostly unfavorable Very unfavorable 13
  • 14. EMERGING FAULT LINES Potential Tensions in the GOP Coalition Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 14
  • 15. Different Factors Motivating Vote Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 15 37 25 22 11 28 37 29 5 27 25 27 14 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 To Help the GOP win control of Congress To Oppose President Obama Against Washington in general About local issues Was your vote mostly... Among Voters Republican Tea Party White evangelical
  • 16. Priorities for Republicans in Congress Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 16 36 29 17 8 6 41 23 18 4 9 32 40 14 8 4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Repeal health care reform law Balance federal budget Cut taxes for all Americans Investigate Obama administration Cut spending on social services Priorities for GOP Congress Among all Republican Tea Party White Evangelical
  • 17. Tensions over Discrimination, Race, and Equal Opportunity Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 17 41 37 41 46 38 50 58 58 64 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Discrimination against women no longer problem Minorities get too much government attention Not a problem if some have more chances in life Issues of Discrimination and Equal Opportunity Total White Evangelical Tea Party
  • 18. EMERGING FAULT LINES Attitudes Towards Islam Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 18
  • 19. Islam and American Values Percent who agree: The values of Islam, the Muslim religion, are at odds with American Values. Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 19 45 36 44 49 51 31 44 46 38 48 30 43 67 66 28 45 47 53 57 -10 10 30 50 70 Total 18-29 30-49 50-64 65+ Black Hispanic White College graduate Not college graduate Democrat Independent Republican Tea Party Unaffiliated Minority Christian White mainline Catholic White evangelical
  • 20. EMERGING FAULT LINES American Exceptionalism and Foreign Policy Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 20
  • 21. American Exceptionalism by Religious Tradition Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 21 58 32 53 54 67 83 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Total Unaffiliated White Mainline Catholics Minority Christians White Evangelicals God has granted America a special role in human history. % Agreeing
  • 22. American Exceptionalism and Foreign Policy Old Alignments, Emerging Religious Fault Lines 22 52 55 26 42 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Best way to ensure peace through military strength Torture can be justified American Exceptionalism and Foreign Policy Among whites... God granted U.S. special role No special role
  • 23. Old Alignments, Emerging Fault Lines: Religion in the 2010 Election & Beyond An Analysis of the Post-Election American Values Survey

Editor's Notes

  1. Nearly 9-in-10 (87%) of those who say Fox news most trusted source on current events and politics voted Republican. Only 7% decided who to vote for on election day.
  2. Biggest influence on vote: 73% common sense and personal experience 12% what you have seen or read in the media 9% your religious beliefs 4% views of friends and family
  3. Among Tea Party, nearly as many cited role and size of government (37%) as economy (40%) as most important factor in vote.
  4. 65% white Catholics hearing about abortion 9% hearing about voting for specific candidates and parties
  5. Overall: 9% excited 41% satisfied 21% disappointed 18% worried 3% angry
  6. Obama’s religious beliefs different from own: Republicans: 78% Tea Party: 76% (66% very different) 52% of independents Democrats: 20%
  7. Shares my values (Barack Obama): 25 Completely agree 37 Mostly agree 18 Mostly disagree 16 Completely disagree
  8. Tea Party vote was more anti-Obama than anti-Washington, a nationalized election Evangelicals less anti-Obama, more about local issues than Tea Party.
  9. GOP #s: women 50, minorities too much attention 47, equal opportunity 57. Reverse discrimination: 44 Total 57 Evangelical 61 Tea Party 56 Republican Among XnC (largely in line with WE, slightly higher on minorities getting too much attention): 46% Not problem if some have more chances in life 48% minorities get too much government attention