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1. DTC Low Carbon Technologies
Faculty of Engineering
Aircraft Cost Index and the Future of
Carbon Emissions from Air Travel
Holly Edwards
PhD Researcher in Low Carbon Aviation
pmhae@leeds.ac.uk

2. Introduction
Aviation responsible for around 2-3% of global greenhouse gas emissions
This proportion set to rise as carbon reduction solutions cannot keep up with
demand growth
Likely scenario annual average
growth rate:
• 2010 - 2030 – 4.9% per annum
• 2030 – 2050 - 4% per annum
56,000 new aircraft required by
2040 (65% for growth)
International Civil Aviation Organisation (2013)

3. Cost Index
Labour Costs
Maintenance Costs
Delay Costs
Aircraft Flight Management Computer
Speed of Flight
Flight parameters e.g.
wind speed, altitude
Flight Time
Fuel Use
CO2 Emissions
Cost Index =
Cost of Time ($/min)
Cost of Fuel ($/kg)

4. Cost Index
CO2
Fuel
Cost
Time-dependent
Cost
MRC Max CIOptimum CI
Speed of Aircraft
CI represents the cost of every kg of
extra fuel per flight minute saved
from CI = 0.

5. Aims
Understand the effect that Cost Index can have on emissions from
aircraft
• Six aircraft models assessed for range of CI values and
different distances
Examine how future impacts will affect Cost Index values
• Three key areas: Technology, Policy and Environmental Issues
• Use of B767-300ER aircraft to demonstrate the effect

6. Calculating CI and Costs
• Piano-X used to model
flights
• Mach numbers from MRC
(CI=0) and the maximum
• Fuel burn and flight time
used to calculate CI for
each Mach number
• Costs allocated for each
CI – time costs from
University of Westminster
Transport Studies Group.
• 2030 used as analysis
year

7. CI and Aircraft
CI Values
Average 1% saving in CO2 emissions for change in CI value

8. Policy
Market Based Measures
• EUETS – Aviation from 2012
• Backlash from international airlines
• EU “Stopped the Clock” on inclusion of international airlines
• ICAO agreement for global MBM in 2013
• Measure to be decided 2016, implementation from 2020
• Offsetting or cap-and-trade scheme – will include carbon prices

9. Policy – Effect of Carbon Price 2030
-0.04%-0.06%

10. Policy
Operations
• Restricted Airspace – e.g.
China
• Differential Airspace Charging
e.g. Europe
• Airspace used as political tool
e.g. Russia
• Solutions? Single European
Sky and NextGen
Zone Unit Rate (EUR)
Portugal 10.60
Belg.- Luxembourg 72.19
Germany 77.47
Finland 52.21
Netherlands 66.62
Ireland 30.77
Denmark 71.53
Norway 52.66
Poland 35.36
Malta 27.76
United Kingdom 89.26
Switzerland 100.72
Austria 73.54
European Over-flight Charges
Eurocontrol, 2014

11. Policy – Effect of Direct Routing 2030
-7%

12. Policy
Labour Regulation
• E.g. new legislation passed by European Commission in 2013 on flight
crew hours and rest times. Night flying allowance reduced by 45
minutes.
Airports
• Congestion issues, with increasing demand e.g. Heathrow third runway
debate.

13. Policy – Effect of Time-dependent costs 2030
+0.23%
-0.3%

14. Environment
Jet Fuel
• In general there is an expectation that oil prices will rise
• Have to be careful that CI represents the price at origin airport
• To convert crude oil price to jet fuel price a 25% crack spread is used
Oil Price
Projections
Department for Energy and Climate Change, 2014

15. Environment
Climate Change Impacts on Aviation
Climate Impact Aviation Impact
Temperature Increase Changes in demand; changes in climb performance;
redistribution on noise impact; heat damage to tarmac
surfaces.
Changes in Precipitation Operational impacts: loss of capacity and efficiency;
increased delay; increased de-icing requirements;
structural issues due to changes in ground frost depth and
duration.
Increase in intensity and
frequency of convective
weather
Operational impacts: loss of capacity and efficiency,
increased delay.
Changes in wind patterns Increased crosswinds and loss of runway capacity;
redistribution of noise impact due to procedural change
Sea Level Rise Loss of network capacity; increased delays, network
disruption; temporary or permanent airport closure
International Civil Aviation Organisation, 2013

16. Environment – Effect of Delay 2030
+0.25%+0.9%

17. Technology
Expected Improvements in fuel efficiency: aircraft technology
Scenario Single Aisle Twin Aisle
2020 2030 2020 2030
TS1: Continuation 23% 29% 19% 26%
TS2: Increased
Pressure
29% 34% 25% 35%
TS3: Further
Increased Pressure
41% 41%
TS3 with open rotor 48%
Relative to year 2000 technology baseline
International Civil Aviation Organisation, 2013
Plus a 10% blend of biofuels in 2030

18. Technology
Expected Improvements in fuel efficiency: Operations
2020 2030 2040
Goal 3.25% 6.75% 9.00%
Lower Confidence Interval 2.25% 4.50% 5.75%
Relative to 2010 levels
International Civil Aviation Organisation, 2013

19. Technology – Effect in 2030
-25%
-42%

20. Overall Effect on Cost Index 2030

21. Conclusion
Cost Index has a dual purpose:
• Contribution to the basket of measures to reduce aviation emissions
• Use as a tool to predict future factors on CO2 emissions per flight
Long haul flights show the best potential for emissions reduction
Further work/Policy:
Increased Research Policy
Optimisation of Cost Index* Correct implementation of a market based
measure
Climate change impacts on aviation Consideration of alternative incentive
schemes for climate change mitigation
Assessment of different aircraft models* Risk mitigation for future impacts to reduce
delay
Network effects* Stakeholder collaboration desperately
needed

22. Thank you
pmhae@leeds.ac.uk