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# Masters Dissertation Posters 2017

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Posters summarizing dissertation research projects - presented by MSc students at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, April 2017. http://bit.ly/2re35Cs
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/dissertation

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### Masters Dissertation Posters 2017

1. 1. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 … 2030 Background • China’s first car was made in 1956 and the first private car was made in early 1980; • In 1994, the government started to encourage people to buy private cars; • Nowadays the car ownership in China has reached 290 million With the growth of 27.5 million cars and 33.1 million drivers in 2016 (Xinhua news agency 2017); • Traffic congestion and environment problems have been more serious; • More traffic policies are carried out to restrict the amount of cars since 2008; Private Car ownership analysis in several cities in China Shijun Cheng, M.Sc. Transport Planning & Engineering Supervisor: Zia Wadud Institute of Transport Study (Traffic congestion in Beijing) Source: http://chuansong.me/n/981272952969 The proposed scope • Taking Beijing ,Shanghai ,Tianjin, Guangzhou and Hangzhou as the examples; • The time series are divided into three parts: “1985 - 2008”, “2008 - 2015”, “2015 - 2030”; • Choose GDP per capita (RMB), population data (1,000 people) and fuel price (RMB) as the main valuable factors. The proposed methodology • Econometric model: ln 𝐶𝑡 = 𝐾 + 𝑖=1 𝑚 𝛼𝑖 ln 𝐶𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑗=0 𝑛 𝛽𝑗 ln 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−𝑗 + 𝑘=0 𝑜 𝛾 𝑘 ln 𝑃𝑡−𝑘 𝑙=0 𝑝 δ𝑙 ln 𝐹𝑡−𝑙 + 𝜀𝑡; • For the eq., C is the number of vehicles, GDP is real GDP per capita ,P is population and F is fuel price, 𝜀𝑡 is the error of the econometric model, m n o p will be chosen to fit the error 𝜀𝑡 and α, β, γ, δ, k are the estimated parameters; • Intervention analysis will be used in time series econometrics to estimate the impact of traffic polices. Expected conclusions • GDP per capita and population could be the main variables of the car ownership model; • After carrying out traffic policies, comparing with the actual data, the growth of the car ownership starts to slow down; • The growth of the predictive results should be more slowly. Aims and Objectives • By analysing the previous car ownership data from to get estimated results; • To find the differences between the actual data and estimated results; • Whether the traffic policies have positive impacts on the restraint of car numbers? • What is the predicted value of car ownership in the future (2030)? Private car ownership in China (per 1000) GDP (Population) (Grass Domestic Product) per capita References Bhat, C.R. and Sen, S. 2006. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological. Household Vehicle Type Holdings and Usage: An Application of the Multiple Discrete- Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) Model. [Online]. 40(1).pp 35-53. [Available from]: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261505000093 Dargay, J. et al. 2007. Science Direct: Transportation Research Part A. The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK. [Online]. 2017(4).pp 949-960. [Available from]: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856407000419 Deng, X. 2007. Private Car Ownership in China: How Important is the effect of Income? [Online]. [Available from]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241654202_Private_Car_Ownership_in_China_How_Important_is_the_effect_of_Income Huang, X. 2011. Michigan Tech: Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports. Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China. [Online]. [Available from]: http://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etds/444/ Li, J. et al. 2010. Modelling Private Car Ownership in China: Investigation of Urban Form Impact across Megacities. [Online]. [Available from]: https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=909830 Wadud, Z. 2012. Transportation Research Part A. Transport impacts of an energy-environment policy: The case of CNG conversion of vehicles in Dhaka. [Online]. [Available from]: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856414001128 Wu, T. 2014. Sustainability. Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050. [Online]. 2014(6).pp 4877-4899. [Available from]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277673929_Vehicle_Ownership_Analysis_Based_on_GDP_per_Capita_in_China_1963-2050 Xinhua News Agency. 2017. The car ownership in China.[Online].[Accessed 17 April]. Available from : http://www.gov.cn/shuju/2017-01/11/content_5158647.htm Traffic policies have been taken in 2008 Where will it go in the future? Fuel price per liter (¥)
3. 3. LOW-COST DRIVING SIMULATION, UNDERSTANDING TRANSITION OUT OF AUTOMATED DRIVING BY USING DESKTOP SIMULATOR Author: Agung Adri Laksono – MSc Transport Planning Supervisor: Gustav Markkula BACKGROUND STUDY 60% Human behaviour is the most factor that causes road accident (Rosolino et al. (2013) Autonomous vehicles can generate the reduction on road traffic accident - prevent and reduce failure on human factor (Bertoncello and Wee, 2015). However, during the automation, the driver’s attention may shift away and potentially impairs driver’s ability Running desktop simulator can be useful to address these problems by studying several aspect such as the Reaction Time and Visual Angle. Therefore, this research will investigate the reaction time and visual angle during the automation. Also this research will refer to Louw et al., (2017) that has used driving simulator to generate comparative result. To what extent the generated result of experimental reseach on transition out such as reaction time and visual angle in desktop simulator compared to the driving simulator ? RESEARCH QUESTION Aim : Obtain the comparative result between desktop simulator and previous study which used driving simulator in term of investigating the reaction time and visual angle during the transition out. Objectives: AIM & OBJECTIVES Andersen, G. and Sauer, C. (2007). Optical Information for Car Following: The Driving by Visual Angle (DVA) Model. Human Factors, 49(5), pp.878-896. Louw, T., Markkula, G., Boer, E., Madigan, R., Carsten, O. and Merat, N. (2017). Coming Back into the Loop: Driver's Perceptual-Motor Performance in Critical Events after Automated Driving. Transport Research. Louw TL; Merat N (2017) Are you in the loop? Using gaze dispersion to understand driver visual attention during vehicle automation, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 76, pp.35-50. KEY REFERENCES Second Reader: Natasha Merat200985420 - ts16aal@leeds.ac.uk To compare the generated result from low-cost driving simulator (desktop simulator) with the previous result that generated by driving simulator in term of investigating the reaction time and visual angle during the transition out of automated driving. To analyse and identify the important aspects which affect the different result generated by desktop simulator. No Fog + Heavy Fog Heavy Fog + No Fog People will use desktop simulator. First 10 people will be tested no fog then heavy fog. Second 10 people will be tested heavy fog Data Collection Set Up The Experiment The reaction time will be measured take-over time (ttake-over) and the action time (taction). To investigate this case will be use a MATLAB (version R2015b, MathWorks). The visual angle will be measured by setting the distance of the desktop screen to generate proper θ (Andersen and Sauer, 2007). θ = 𝑤 𝑑 Where: θ is the visual angle, w is the width of the LV, and D is the distance between vehicles. Set Up The Experiment METHODOLOGY The recruited participant will be on age between 25 and 45 years old and have driving license. NEXT STEP The study will investigate the reaction time and visual angle, the driver will be tested with 2 different screen manipulations which are no fog and heavy fog. No Fog Heavy Fog University of Leeds Driving Simulator (UoLDS) Location: Participants : ITS Master Students
6. 6. •For almost over 30 years in Hong Kong, bus networks have not seen major changes nor innovations. However during this time, 1) people and activities could have changed, 2) roads have become more congested and 3)new MTR railways have ‘caught-up’ and an efficient and reliable substitute has been available. •These changes imply bus amendments are necessary but to date, they have been difficult to conduct - This is because there is a part or section of each bus route which is still more point-to-point and direct compared to using MTR. Also, the Public housing estates which are usually not well-served by the railways but requires affordable transport means that buses are also important for meeting equity needs. All in all, with lots of objections to proposed amendments, oversupply of services is resulted. •It is thus important to ‘rationalize’ transport services by removing wasteful competition to maintain economic efficiency. This study looks, from the basis of passenger and operator welfare-maximization, the extent that rail ‘substituting’ buses is desirable. Background – The ‘problem’ •To conduct bus patronage counts, generalized cost calculations and interviews with passengers on the existing bus services •To form a theoretical model to explain the factors that affect the travel mode choices at different times of day and at different sections of the same corridor •To find out if efficiency can be achieved with equity •To inform and recommend to the policy over the most economic welfare-maximizing competition and/or coordination levels based on the results Aims and Objectives Keen intermodal competition in Hong Kong – Should bus and rail compete with each other or coordinate? Student: Alex Fung - Msc Transport Economics (2016/17) - Supervised by Dr Tony Whiteing & Dr Andrew Tomlinson On 2 representative HK corridors, design a (simplified) O-D trip-matrix based on actual commuting practices; Using Census data to assist identifying O-D pairs Identify the common travel alternatives of these O-D pairs, calculate and compare the generalized costs of using each Also conducting interviews and bus patronage counts, recording passenger opinions (e.g. mode attributes) to help understand the generalized cost difference and to reflect the welfare impacts on operator’s costs when alternative bus strategies are proposed Present the factors affecting generalized cost using a theoretical model, Highlight the factors that are of more significant impact to assist policy recommendations MTR overcrowding Comfortable seats on buses Methodology and Data sources •In general, the mode a lower generalized cost of using implies higher accessibility levels and higher welfare levels enjoyed, for that O-D pair. •It is expected that this study shall respond to the issue of having multi-purpose bus routes that vary in patronage at different sections of the route at different times of day, on what is the social-welfare maximizing competition and/or coordination level for ‘rationalizing’ oversupply of services. •It is believed that the factors outlined in the theoretical model is beneficial for future research in terms of ways to model the relative mode attractiveness on the 2 core urban modes, bus and rail •Policy recommendations of alternative bus strategies: These include long route splitting, limited-stopping arrangement, merging/shortening redundant route sections etc. Expected findings and discussions Slow bus routes high travel time variability Proposed factors that influence generalized costs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 number of bus stops to travel (i.e. delay time) 9 time of day/day of week 10 that will be studied in the scope of this research journey purpose (commute/leisure) anxiety of waiting at bus stops fares Overcrowding at MTR maximum congestion time (buses Only) (i.e. reliability problem) expected number of signalized junctions to pass enroute (buses Only) (i.e. delay time) in-vehicle time waiting time (bus) / access&egress time (rail) Relevant Data Sources: 1) HK Census 2011 to understand the cross district movement along the corridor. 2) Bus on board patronage counts – for daily variations of bus demand 3) Interviews – conducted in the district council office
7. 7. Understanding Pedestrian Interactions with Automated Vehicles OBJECTIVES To achieve this aim, the following objectives have been set:  Understanding pedestrian interactions with the non-automated vehicles  Studying different aspects of this understanding, such as the cultural differences that have a crucial role in this interrelationship  Finally, understanding of the factors that affect pedestrian interactions with AVs METHODOLOGY & DATA COLLECTION Literature Review of studies regarding the driver-pedestrian interactions, as well as some recent studies regarding the interaction between pedestrians and AVs. Data Collection by focus groups interviews (2-3 with 5-8 people each). The groups consist of participants of different genders and nationalities, with cultural differences who are asked to state their preferred choices across a set of different scenarios. Data collection by questionnaires. They include questions regarding the pedestrians- drivers interactions and some others regarding some important aspects of the pedestrians – AVs interactions, based on the outcomes of the focus groups discussions. Analysis of the results. Qualitative analysis of the focus groups outputs by recording them and taking notes, and statistical analysis of the questionnaires’ results by using the statistical software SPSS. AIM The aim of this project is to understand the interactions between the pedestrians and the drivers of the non - automated vehicles and identify how these interactions may change when introducing automated driving (SAE Level 4 AVs). INTRODUCTION - BACKGROUND  Even though there is some understanding of how pedestrians interpret the actions of vehicles with drivers, there are great challenges for interpreting these communication strategies in the case that the driver is absent or is not maneuvering the vehicle (Merat et al., 2016).  People of different gender, nationalities and with cultural differences perceive the pedestrian - vehicle interactions in a different way.  Pedestrians’ safety might decrease when driver’s role changes from active to passive (Lagstrom and Lundgren, 2015).  Pedestrians perceive this new driver behavior as hazardous when they are unaware that the vehicle is driving in the automated mode (Lagstrom and Lundgren, 2015).  Hence, pedestrians need to be provided with additional feedback in the interaction with the automated vehicles (AVs) due to the inadequate information. KEY REFERENCES • Anderson, J., Kalra, N., Stanley, K., Sorensen, P., Samaras, C. & Oluwatola, O. 2014. Autonomous vehicle technology: a guide for policymakers in Rand Corporation, Arlington, Virginia, USA, pp. 185. • Lagstrom, T. and Lundgren, V.M., 2015. AVIP-Autonomous vehicles interaction with pedestrians (Doctoral dissertation, Thesis). • Merat, N., Madigan, R. and Nordhoff, S., 2016. Human Factors, User Requirements, and User Acceptance of Ride-Sharing in Automated Vehicles. Paper prepared for the ITF Roundtable on Cooperative Mobility Systems and Automated Driving, 6th-7th December, 2016, OECD. • Šucha, M. 2014. Fit to drive: 8th International Traffic Expert Congress. 8-9 May, 2014, Warsaw. Alexandra Kotopouli MSc Transport Economics Supervisor: Ruth Madigan Second Reader: Natasha Merat Figure 2: Pedestrian-vehicle interaction Source: Lagstrom and Lundgren (2015) Figure 1: Pedestrian-driver interaction. Source: Šucha, M. (2014) Figure 3: Focus Groups Interviews
8. 8. Sebayang, Aliset – MSc (Eng) Transport Planning and Engineering Institute for Transport Studies Email: ts16as@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Alan Jeffery, BSc(hons) CEng MICE FCIHT FCMI Utilization of Aircraft Classification Number and Pavement Classification Number (ACN-PCN) as part of Airport Pavement Management System (APMS) Study Case: Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (SHIA), Jakarta, Indonesia Background ACN-PCN is a method to describe the relationship between the airfield pavement strength and the aircraft. ACN is published by aircraft manufacturers and PCN is issued by the airport's operator. The purpose is to determine whether an aircraft can use an airfield pavement. Four methods of ACN-PCN recognized by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO): 1. Classic method (CBR method) 2. Graphical method (by UK Dept. of Defence) 3. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) standard method 4. Field test by Heavy-Weight-Deflectometer Expected Findings 1. The method(s) that is preferred to use in evaluating the airport’s PCN value in Indonesia and the reasons 2. The residual life of the existing pavement Objectives 1. To assess which method is preferred by the operator(s) as part of the APMS. 2. To discuss the advantages and the drawbacks in implementing the methods. 3. To evaluate the ACN-PCN of SHIA, Jakarta PCN Reporting Format Ex.: PCN 50/F/B/X/U 1. Numerical PCN Value, an index of the pavement capacity loads regarding of a standard single wheel load at a tyre pressure of 1.25 MPa. 2. Pavement Type: F for flexible and R for rigid. 3. Subgrade Strength Category: A, B, C or D. 4. Allowable Tyre Pressure: X, W, Y or Z. 5. Evaluation Methodology: U for usage and T for technical analysis. Airline passenger rise 19.3% pa (Int.) and 13.4% pa (Dom.) Aircraft movement growth p.a: 19.12% (Int.) and 16.01% (Dom.) Air cargo growth p.a: 19.46% (Int.) and 14.95% (Dom.). More than 17,000 islands Land territory area: 1.9 Million km2 Marine territory area: 3.1 Million km2 The 4th fastest growing market in terms of additional passengers per year by 2035 (IATA, 2016) 299 Airports connecting the islands The Facts of Indonesia Air Transport Source: google.map The Data Collection Flow chart to Calculate PCN for all methods Data Facts of SHIA (2016): • The busiest airport in Indonesia, 18th in the world (ACI, 2015) • One movement every 0.95 minute • 2 runway, 3600 m each • 3 Terminal with cap 26 Million Passengers/year • PCN 120/R/D/W/T Source: google.map Layout of SHIA North Runway South Runway North Taxiway South Taxiway Terminal 1 Terminal 2 Terminal 3 MRO Methodology For Objectives No. 1 and 2: a. Literature review - theoretical research b. Perform a survey regarding the utilization of ACN-PCN of some airports in Indonesia c. Generate the superiorities and the drawbacks of the methods, based on the survey result For Objective No. 3: a. Literature review - theoretical research b. Collect the data from SHIA operator; flight recording, aircraft types, frequency, pressure landing gear, and aircraft maximum take-off weight c. Calculate the ACN-PCN d. Compare the results of the four methods
9. 9. Introduction Connectivity throughout road networks is an issue of major interest for local and national governments, it is considered as an index of productivity and development. For that reason, studies have been developed to provide a solid framework that helps poli- cymakers to achieve the highest benefit of their decisions. Regardless the deci- sions made, networks may occasionally undergo reductions of their designed capacity due to unexpected and undesirable events such as accidents or nat- ural disasters like earthquakes and flooding. Then, with limited resources for reconstruction and enhancement, policymakers must decide how to distribute the official budget to minimize the impact of possible disrup- tions. Objectives  Formulate the Network Investment Allocation Problem as Mathe- matical Problem with Equilibrium Constrain.  Propose a solution using a Simulating Annealing Approach.  Test different scenarios and evaluate the solution using at least two net- work examples.  Evaluate the performance of the methodology in real scale networks. Theoretical Framework Network Investment Allocation Problem The Network Design Problem (NDP) is formulated to identify the combination of links (i.e. road, streets), whose availability (construction) or capacity expansion, maximize the network benefit (or minimize costs) in order to meet the growing trip demand and prevent congestion (Wang, et al., 2014). Authors subdivide NDP into three categories: Continues Network Design Problems (CNDP), Discrete Network Design Problem (DNDP) and the mixed version (MNDP) (Wang, et al., 2014). The first category suggests to add new links to the network, while the second one aims to increase the existing capacity and the third one is a combination of the first two. In this dissertation it will be formulated the Network Investment Allocation Problem (NIAP). This problem consists on identifying what is the best invest, to recover capacity after disruption or to increase capacity on other non-disrupted links. Simulated Annealing In condensed matter physics, the simulation of the annealing of solids is a process which objective is to minimize the energy between particles by arranging them aleatory. To achieve the minimal energy the solid is exposed to heat until it melts (maximum heat), then it is cooled up slowly until it turns into solid state again (cooling scheme). As analogy of this process, Kirkpatrick (1983) developed an algorithm to solve combinatorial problems, that consists of four elements: a representation of the system, a random generator of per- turbances, an objective function and the annealing schedule (maximum temperature and cooling scheme). Methodology It will be proposed an algorithm to solve the NIAP, which will be first tested using an small network. Once the solution is proved to work, the performance of the algorithm will be evaluated using a real scale network. Algorithm Represent the network as graph. Code and run Method of Successive Average (MSA) to model traffic assignment. Code and run Simulated Annealing. Define objective function: Total travel cost. Create perturbance function: Select randomly the set of links where the investment will be allocated. Set annealing schedule: Trial and error, different tempera- tures and cooling schemes will be logged. Tools  Excel: To store input (coordinates, capacity, demands, paths, etc.) and outputs (flow, new capacities, system cost).  Wolfram Language: To code algorithms and visualise networks. Outputs Network performance: New capacities, flows and travel time. Algorithm performance: Runtimes and convergence. Evaluation of the applicability of the solution to solve the problem of the budged distribution. Discussion of further researches.Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) Start Perform MSA with full capacity Perform MSA with reduced capacity Random modification of previous solution to generate new flows. Random modification of previous so- lution to generate new capacities. Update best solution Store best solution Simulated Annealing Perturbance Generation Is the new so- lution better or meet criteria? Update best solution Is the cooling process finished? YES YES NONO End 2 4 5 1 6 3 Source: Wang, G.M. (2014)
11. 11. Evaluating transport governance structures for Metro Manila using cases on mass transit programmes Anne Patricia E. Mariano, ts16apem@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Dr. Katharine Pangbourne Second Reader: Professor Greg MarsdenMSc Sustainability in Transport Potential Cases: Mass Transit Programmes 1.  Limited-stop bus services were introduced in 2015 to encourage bus ridership. These services successfully reduced travel ?me but do not replace exis?ng routes. 2.  Studies were conducted in 2014 and 2016 to (a) iden?fy required mass transit routes by reviewing demand and exis?ng services, and (b) present op?misa?on plans for 3 routes. These are yet to be implemented in favour of further studies. 3.  Infrastructure projects such as a bus rapid transit system between 2 ci?es and a commuter rail to connect 4 regions were posi?vely received by stakeholders albeit with concerns on the poli?cal costs of land acquisi?on. Mode Share of Metro Manila Trips Based on household interview surveys and a total of 35.5 million trips (JICA, 2014) Transportation Issues •  Total metro rail lines of only 50km (DOTr, 2015) •  Transit primarily informal, lacking organised stops, schedules, and services (DOTr, 2015) •  18% increase in travel 9me on buses from 1996 to 2014 (JICA, 2015) •  Over 2M registered vehicles and some of the worst conges?on in the world (DOTr, 2015; Waze, 2015) Es?mates put Metro Manila conges9on costs at GBP 37.5M every day. (JICA, 2014) Selected References • Aberbach, J. and Rockman, B. 2002. Conduc?ng and coding elite interviews. PoliDcal Science & PoliDcs, 35(04), pp.673-676. • Creswell, J. 2007. QualitaDve inquiry and research design: Choosing among ﬁve approaches. 2nd edi?on. California: Sage Publica?ons. • DOTr. 2015. Metro Manila 2015-2030: Approaches to Current Transporta?on Issues for the Future. • Japan Interna?onal Coopera?on Agency [JICA]. 2014. Final Report - Main Text. Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas. • JICA. 2015. MUCEP Progress. The Project for Capacity Development on TransportaDon Planning and Database Management in the Republic of the Philippines (MUCEP). • Philippine Sta?s?cs Authority. 2016. Regional Accounts of the Philippines. [Online]. [Accessed 21 April 2017]. Available from h`ps://psa.gov.ph/regional-accounts/grdp/ data-and-charts • Waze. 2015. Global Driver Sa?sfac?on Index. [Online]. [Accessed 20 April 2017]. Available from h`ps://blog.waze.com/2015/09/global-driver-sa?sfac?on-index.html The study will focus on the following: 1.  What are the formal and informal boundaries of Metro Manila in terms of transporta?on? 2.  Who are the decision-makers for the planning and implementa?on of transporta?on programmes in Metro Manila? 3.  What organisa?onal or mandate issues do these decision-makers face in planning or implementa?on, in light of a speciﬁc programme to improve mass transit? 4.  What policy or organisa?onal changes can address these issues? Research Questions Regional Development Council – Na?onal Capital Region Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Department of Transporta?on Department of Public Works and Highways Na?onal Economic and Development Authority Proposed Methodology This study will employ qualita?ve research methods (Creswell, 2007). To gain a deeper understanding of the issues, semi-structured interviews with open-ended ques?ons will be conducted with stakeholder representa?ves (Aberbach and Rockman, 2002). These may include the DOTr, the MMDA, 2-3 LGUs depending on the case study, and, if relevant, public individuals. All data will be anonymised. Legisla?on, historical and current events, and similar cases will be reviewed prior to ﬁeldwork. This will aid in formula?ng ques?ons and iden?fying relevant stakeholders. Due to ?me constraints, all interviews will be scheduled over one week in June 2017. Coordina?ng with oﬃcials will be crucial to data quality. Collected data will be transcribed and coded to enable analysis. Review of literature On Metro Manila; metro regions; qualita?ve research; and elite interviews Formula?on of ques?ons and iden?ﬁca?on of interviewees Conduct of face-to-face interviews Data analysis and formula?on of conclusions *Coloured areas on map depict potenDal study areas. Jeepney, 19% Tricycle, 16% Bus, 7% Train, 4% Other Public Modes, 3% Motorcycle, 8% Car, 8% Taxi, 1% Other Private Modes, 3% Walking, 31% Public 17,335 Private 7,253 Walking 10,913 Overview: Metro Manila Transportation Area: 636km2, 0.21% of country Popula?on (2015): 12.88M, 12.75% of country Economic Output (20151): GBP 43.3B, 36.5% of country Public transit op?ons: 3 metro rail lines 82 bus routes 124 u?lity vehicle routes 677 jeepney routes 1Constant 2000 prices Local Government Units (LGUs): 16 ci9es 1 municipality Regional Agencies: MMDA – Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Na?onal Agencies: DOTr – Department of Transporta?on DPWH – Department of Public Works and Highways NEDA – Na?onal Economic and Development Authority LGUs are led by elected mayors, while regional and na?onal agencies are typically led by presiden?al appointees.
12. 12. Data Fusion: A Simulation Approach Aseem Awad Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds Objectives We explore ways of addressing the issue of Verac- ity and Value in Big Data. • Apply techniques of Data Fusion to create a Origin-Destination with high ﬁtness-for-use, to provide benchmark for the performance of our models. • Create Geospatial Microsimulation to visualize results of the transport model based on our datasets. Focus on one system. • Use the hybrid Geospatial Microsimulation to iteratively improve a simulation model of the urban system. Compare the results with analytical approaches. Introduction Transport modelling can be conceptualised as mod- elling of transport demand, transport supply and the evolving interaction of these two factors. In this dis- sertation we set out to create and exhibit a demand model with high ﬁtness-for-use by utilising Data Fu- sion and an innovative hybrid of Spatial Microsimu- lation and Agent-Based simulation. Figure 1: Agent-Based model to simulate changes in the built environment of East Anglia Materials The following materials are required to complete the research: • A social media dataset coming from active individuals. (STRAVA) • Data of Automatic Traﬃc Detection readings. • Data regarding Land-Use and demographics. • A software suitable for Agent-Based Simulation. Previous attempts in this direction have been made using MATsim-T and NetLogo. We intend to use R and NetLogo. Methodology • We apply the ITS Data Fusion techniques described in [1] to STRAVA and other demographic datasets. • We use Geospatial Microsimulation for a separate process of Data Fusion. • We iteratively calibrate the simulation model and the analytical model used for Data Fusion. • We conclude by an analysis of the relation between Active Travel, Public Transport and Land Use/demographic variables. The Central Research Question How to fuse data from social media with traditional datasets to create high quality data? What role can Geospatial Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modelling serve in this process? Underlying Architecture of Data Fusion Figure 2: The typical Architecture of Data Fusion techniques. [2] [3] is the ﬁrst paper that uses Geospatial Microsim- ulation for the purpose of Data Fusion. The simula- tion can display the eﬃcacy of a given algorithm. Application of the Technique Figure 3: A link existing? The relation between active travel, public transit and Land-Use characteristics provides a rich area for research. We aim to get a detailed picture of the active travel occurring in our area of choice. We can use the dataset to infer the relation of active travel with Land-Use and Public Transit. As a conclusion we hope to demonstrate the relation between these elements. Additional Information Figure 4: City of Glasgow in motion. Projection of a dataset acquired by UBDC This project has established relationships with orga- nizations that specialize in collecting and curating data. CDRC in Leeds and Urban Big Data Center (UBDC) will be involved in the acquisition of data. References [1] Nour-Eddin El Faouzi, Henry Leung, and Ajeesh Kurian. Data fusion in intelligent transportation systems: Progress and challenges–a survey. Information Fusion, 12(1):4–10, 2011. [2] David Lee Hall and Sonya AH McMullen. Mathematical techniques in multisensor data fusion. Artech House, 2004. [3] Chris Bachmann, Baher Abdulhai, Matthew J Roorda, and Behzad Moshiri. A comparative assessment of multi-sensor data fusion techniques for freeway traﬃc speed estimation using microsimulation modeling. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 26:33–48, 2013. Contact Information • Email: ts16ara@leeds.ac.uk • Phone: +44 7435703778
14. 14. Commuter’s Perception of BRT Classic, Lagos, Nigeria. Popoola, Boluwatife. M.Sc. Transport Planning and Engineering. ts16btp@leeds.ac.uk   The economic hub of Nigeria.  Largest city in Africa with a population of about 18 million, and growing at 6% per annum.  Pioneered Africa’s first BRT system in 2008 Lagos BRT Classic implemented 2015 Fully Segregated 13.5Km Median Side Corridor Daily Ridership of about 140,000 commuters No or Unknown research about customer perception and system performance in global context  To investigate the level of commuter’s satisfaction with BRT Classic, Lagos.  To identify how the BRT Classic can be improved and extended to other locations in Lagos. 1. Introduction 3. Research  Questions 5. Methodology  The perception of the Lagos BRT classic will be restricted to its customers only.  Lagos BRT Classic improvement recommendations will be confined to ITDP‘s scored Gold and Silver BRT systems.  BRTs offer services similar to light rails but have lower capital and operating cost, shorter design and implementation time than Light Rail Transit  BRTs are becoming more popular in cities 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Pre 2000 Post 2000 Number of BRT Systems, Globally  Measuring transit performance is critical for improving service quality, allotting resources, regulation and improving ridership  Customers perception is relevant for evaluating transit performance because they are the sole judge of service quality How satisfied are Lagos commuter’s with BRT Classic? How can Lagos BRT Classic been improved to increase customer satisfaction and ridership? Where should new BRT systems be implemented in Lagos? 4. Research  Objectives 6. Scope of Study 7. Potential Risks 2. Study Area: Lagos PRE BRT POST BRT  Lapse in LAMATA and survey team cooperation  Respondents may be multimedia tablet illiterates  Theft of multimedia tablet Supervisor: Tony Plumbe Background Study Overview of Lagos BRT Classic  Discussion on Findings • Satisfactory Level • Improvement Measures • BRTs Extension Data Analysis and Interpretation • Quadrant Analysis • Impact Score • Heterogeneous Customer‐ Satisfaction Index • Secure Customer Index Chart Customer Satisfaction Survey On‐board online questionnaire survey using multimedia tablets Literature Review Reviews from BRT concepts and international experience Customer  Satisfaction Levels Transit  Performance Improve Service  Quality Improve  Satisfaction  Levels Increase  Ridership &  Retain Loyalty New BRT Reference Global BRT Data. 2016. http://brtdata.org Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA). 2017. Periodic Impact Assessment on Key  Performance for Bus Rapid Transit. Lagos. (Confidential) Oña, D.J and Oña, D.R. 2014. Quality of service in public transport based on customer satisfaction  surveys: A review and assessment of methodological approaches. [Online]. pp.1‐47. [Accessed 12  February 2017]. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271512605 Transportation Research Board, 2003b. Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual. TCRP Report 100.  National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.  Wright, L. and Hook, W. 2007. Bus Rapid Transit: Planning Guide. [Online]. pp. 1‐836. [Accessed 20  November 2016] Available from: https://www.itdp.org/wp‐content/uploads/2014/07/52.‐Bus‐Rapid‐ Transit‐Guide‐PartIntro‐2007‐09.pdf
15. 15. 1 2 3 4 12 34 Datacollection By:BowenZhang (Email:ts16bz@leeds.ac.uk) Supervisor:Dr.AndrewTomlinson Farescrossingdifferent classonsamefights farescrossingdifferent spaceinsameroutes/class Publicdatasource Dataexample PitchandWidthDataiscollectedfrom www.seatguru.com LowestPriceiscollectedfrom www.britishairways.com,therouteisfrom LHRtoPEK,thetraveldateis3rdMay2017 Mainreference Kremser,F.,Guenzkofer,F.,Sedlmeier,C.,Sabbah,O.andBengler,K.2012. Aircraftseatingcomfort:Theinfluenceofspaceonboardonpassengers’ well-being.Work.41(Supplement1),pp.4936–4942. Lee,D.andLuengo-Prado,M.J.2004.Arepassengerswillingtopaymore foradditionallegroom?JournalofAirTransportManagement.10(6), pp.377–383. Pels,E.2008.Airlinenetworkcompetition:Full-serviceairlines,low-costairPels,E.2008.Airlinenetworkcompetition:Full-serviceairlines,low-costair- linesandlong-haulmarkets.ResearchinTransportationEconomics.24(1), pp.68–74. .wechoosetocollectdatafrom differentfull-serviceair- lineswhichhavemorethan3classesofserviceorpersonal space. Theresearchwillfocusonlong-haulflight(8hoursor more),becausepersonalspacebecomesmoreimportantin whichalong-distancetrip. Scopeoftheresearch IsPassengerpersonalspaceakeyfactoraffectingflight ticketfare? Whatistherelationshipbetweenairlineticketpriceand passengerpersonalspace? Canwedrawthecurvetoindicatetherelationshipbetween valueforperincreasinginch2ofpersonalspace? Researchquestions Personalspaceisanimportantfactoraffectingthecomfort andtravelexperience.Therefore,thereareaaseriesof questionsaboutthepersonalspaceandpossibleeffectfor ticketfaresacrossfullserviceairline.Thepurposeofthis researchisrevealingthepotentialrelationship. Background Methodology Isitakeyfactoraffectingflightticketfare? PASSENGERPERSONALSPACE
16. 16. ` Carlos Caro Martin MSc Transport Economics Supervisor: Dr Andrew Smith Second Reader: Dr Manuel Ojeda Cabral Background 1. Is the length of the contract a determinant factor of efficiency? 2. Is any different behaviour depending of the years remaining in the contract? Aim, objectives and data a) Create a framework for all rail franchises to be able to evaluate an optimum length of the franchise b) Evaluation of each franchise to provide justifications or expected level performance for each company c) Provide recommendation for future actions Quantitative analysis: econometric analysis of cost functions  Creation of a cost frontier to measure the level of inefficiency amongst companies Qualitative analysis: research of the political and contextual situation of each company and franchise  Inclusion of additional value outside the data analysis Methodology Data analysis may offer a single case for every single scenario, therefore the extrapolation for different situations could be biased and mistaken. Also, a controlled experiment or the effect of changing only one variable and observe the effect is limited in reality. In some occasions, the market decisions are not following a procedure but different political and social agendas.  Liberalization of rail services as example of public tender for public service contracts (Nash et al 2016)  Aiming a balance between quality of public service and economic efficiency of the system (McNulty 2011)  Different studies in economies of scope and scale but not so many in length franchise  Unique variety of examples in the UK due to all routes already privatised in this system  UK and UE currently promote tendering systems and franchise length is a key factor Limitations German evidence suggest that longer franchises are cost effective, better deals on rolling stock and incentives to better practices are opportunities from longer deals (Nash et al 2016). There are to be expected differences in companies behaviour depending on the moment on their contracts, and also depending of their expectations to continue with the activity. Understanding of a system with different behaviours depending of the context. In the decision making process, the political and historical heritage are possibly as important as current economic performance. Results expected The length of the franchise should be able to be modified depending of the conditions of each line. Long contracts in systems where investments are needed and better rolling stock deals are possible. Short contracts where the situation is about to change in a near future, or not possible to obtain benefits from big investments. The flexibility in length should be another efficiency factor. In addition, in this case, length is easier to modify than other parameters. Nash C., Crozet Y., Link H., Nilsson, J.-E., Smith A., 2016. Liberalisation of passenger rail services. Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE). DfT 2011. McNulty report. Realising the potential of GB rail: final report of the rail value for money study: detailed report. Department for Transport: Office of Rail Regulation, London. DfT 2016. Rail franchise schedule. Department for Transport [website] Office of Rail Regulation, London References Current situation Cost frontier: establish the level of inefficiency for each firm at an output level A’ Inefficiency of firm A o Dataset of 482 samples for all (roughly 20) TOC companies data since 2000 to 2016 o Dataset already contains cost variables: fixed and variables costs (access, salaries, rolling stock, etc.) o Inclusion of two new variables: years of the franchise and years pending to end the contract Movements in cost frontier due to dummy variables depending of contract length
17. 17. 1. BACKGROUND • China’s "One Belt, One Road" initiative prompted the construction and operation of China-Europe 'Silk Road' Rail Network. • China is one of the largest manufacturing centre. Trade between EU and China keeps increasing in recent years, while about 10.1% of the imports and 6.3% of exports in 2016 were electronic products. • Air pollution is responsible for tens of thousands of early deaths every year. And in EU 51% of NOx and 20% of PM2.5 emissions were from transport in 2015. 2. SCOPE Key Words Eurasian Landbridge, Logistics, Emission Area China: Focus on 5 electronic industrial bases European Cities: London Rotterdam Hamburg Oslo Mode 3. METHODOLOGY • Rail and road freight transport- García- Álvarez et al (2013) • Shipping- Jalkanen et al (2012) STEAM2 • Airline- Moniruzzaman et al (2011) 4. KEY REFERENCES Data Source • China Statistical Yearbook • Ministry of Commerce PRC Statistic • UN Comtrade Database • IMF Data Geography • The Geography of Transport Systems • Geographic Information System Routes between China and Europe Energy Consumption and Pollutant Emission Evaluation for Each OD Pair by Each Mode Research Target Origins and Destination Choosing Comparison Analysis on Emission Volumes from Each Mode in Each Route Pollutant Impact on: Human Vegetation Climate Carbon dioxide Major greenhouse gas Nitrogen dioxide Respiratory irritation Acidification of soil and water, over-fertilizing Has high greenhouse potential, lead to ozone formation Particulates Respiratory damage, various toxic content Reduced assimilation 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EU Trand flows with China (Billion €） Exports Imports Emission Evaluation of Freight Transport Between Europe and China in Electronic Trade CHUCHU XIE ts16cx@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Anthony Whiteing MSc Transport Planning and the Environment
18. 18. Data collection: The study incorporates the collection of both primary and secondary data for an in-depth investigation. Primary data will be collected though a structured self-administer questionnaire. A draft questionnaire has been developed and will be pilot tested on 30 respondents and modifications will be made based on pilot testing. Secondary data will be collected from academic journals, company reports and books which will be used to define the research objectives and to explore various facts. Data analysis and interpretation of surveys: The questionnaire data composed of closed rating scale questions will be compare against existing literature and a descriptive analysis with bar charts and pie charts will be used. THE POTENTIAL USE OF MOBILE PHONE PAYMENTS FOR TRANSPORT TICKETS WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO UGANDA. Agaba Collins | Tony Plumbe (Supervisor) | Jeff Turner (2nd Reader) 1. Motivation There’s a growing use of mobile phones for the payment of utilities and other services in Uganda and this service could be used for the payment of public transport tickets. Currently, Public transport in Uganda operates on manual based system which poses challenges like retrieval of information and planning for public transport in Uganda. My international experience with cashless payment for transport tickets showed me that a solution could be provided by using mobile phone payments which will benefit public transport users, operators and the government. 2. Research Objectives • To review and access the merits of smart ticketing and applications in the world today. • To assess the acceptability and likely behavioural responses to introducing bus mobile phone ticketing in Uganda. 4. Case Study Area 3. Scope 6. Methodology Focus will be on mobile phone payment for travel tickets for intercity 67 seater coaches. There are other means of public transport for example 14 seater mini buses and 32 seater coaster buses that operate between the two towns, this study will not include them. The study is confined to daytime coach travellers between two towns Kampala and Mbarara – Uganda for the period between May and June 2017. 5. Current applications 7. Expected outcomes • Measurement of the acceptability for mobile phone payment for transport tickets in Uganda. • Analysis of the likely travel behaviour should mobile phone payments for transport tickets be introduced in Uganda. • An analysis of the benefits, importance and challenges of adopting mobile phone payment for transport tickets in Uganda. 8. Key references • Uganda communications commission. 2016. Annual market report 2015/2016. [online]. [Accessed 26th April 2017]. Available from: http://www.ucc.co.ug/files/downloads/Annual_Market%20_&_Industry_Report_20 15-16_FY.pdf • Gutierrez, E. and Choi, T. 2014. Mobile money services development: the cases of the Republic of Korea and Uganda. Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 6786. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/503961468174904206/Mobile- money-services-development-the-cases-of-the-Republic-of-Korea-and-Uganda Comparison of mobile phones and Mobile Money Subscribers’ Statistics in Uganda.
19. 19. (CityConnect,2017) 1. Research Context Despite a raised profile in recent years the modal share for cycling in West Yorkshire is 0.8% of all commuting trips, half the national average (Rogers, 2013).  CityConnect is a £6m cycling infrastructure/promotion programme managed by West Yorkshire Combined Authority and funded by the Department for Transport  It aims to make cycling “the natural choice for short journeys”  The first physical leg, CS1, opened in June 2016 from west Leeds to Bradford By February 2017, 100,000 trips had been made on CS1, but limited work has taken place so far to gauge usage by local residents. 2. Transport and identity theory Traditionally, predictions of transport mode choice have been based on cost, time and effort (Van Acker et al, 2013). However, these theories don’t ex- plain differences in transport choices by “individuals in similar situations and with similar socio-economic circumstances” (Heinen, et al 2011; Hei- nen, 2016). Now, a burgeoning body of work “suggests that decisions to cycle are af- fected by perceptions of ‘bicyclists’ in the community, and whether or not an individual wants to be identified with that group” (Sherwin, 2014). “Transport identities, social-role identities, self-identities and place identi- ties are important predictors of mode choice and change” (Heinen, 2016). Identity theory in transport can be largely ascribed to :  cultural identity (e.g. ethnicity)  social identity, indicating identification with a group or social category (Tajfel and Turner, 1986), i.e. a link between the self and social structure (Stryker, 1987).  Self identity, or the meaning that individuals attach to themselves (Heinen, 2016). A value set rather than a role.  The identities that local residents assume and/or subscribe to may there- fore have an influence on their transport choices and use of CS1. Increasing cycling could:  Enhance air quality  Reduce congestion  Increase access to services  Improve physical and mental health CityConnect - Cycling and Identity in Leeds Daniel Gillett, MSc Sustainability in Transport, pt08djg@leeds.ac.uk Supervisors – Eva Heinen and Caroline Mullen 5. Application of findings West Yorkshire Combined Authority’s Transport Strategy and the Leeds City Council Interim Transport Strategy both support the goals of the Strategic Economic Plan for West Yorkshire, which aims to achieve “good”, or sustaina- ble, growth for the region. As both transport documents pledge to increase cycling levels, a deeper un- derstanding of why people do or do not cycle will be desirable when encourag- ing behaviour change, even where segregated infrastructure is provided. Work done to understand the role that identity can play in making the decision whether to cycle, not cycle, or opt for a different transport mode could there- fore potentially be used to inform promotional campaigns or individual inter- ventions designed to encourage cycling and address identity roles or values which might obstruct positive decisions on travelling by bike. 3. Research Goals This dissertation uses identity theory to explore the extent to which identity can influence the decision to cycle and might influence the patronage of CS1. As a comparatively risky area to cycle (Lovelace, 2016), many people in West Yorkshire cite danger as a barrier to cycling. CityConnect aims to challenge this be providing dedicated, segregated infrastructure. Therefore, it will be worthwhile to investigate whether identity remains an in- fluential factor in the decision making process even when cycling provision is promoted as “safe”. Considering that the scheme also attempts to normalise cycling through promotional or “soft” measures, the data may also provide some insight into potential promotional measures specific to the area. Key Research Questions  Who do residents living along CS1 perceive as cyclists? Who is cycling for? Who cycles?  Do residents’ social identities (i.e. their societal roles) or self identity (i.e. their personal values) influence their decision to cycle?  Would it be acceptable within a resident’s direct, less-direct and wider so- cial circles to identify, or be identified, as a cyclist? 4. Methodology (IndicesofDeprivationexplorer2015) As CS1 passes through a diverse range of communities, there is likely to be a valuable assortment of social identities and identity values among residents. i. Overview This research will follow a qualitative approach based on a grounded theory meth- odology, and comprise of interviews with residents living close to CS1. As notions of identity involve emotional elements, the aim is to collect lived experiences of the social world, so a qualitative approach is justified (Liamputtong and Ezzy, 2005; Bei- rão and Cabral, 2007; Grosvenor, 2000). ii. Literature review Literature will be reviewed in further detail to inform questioning and establish an a priori knowledge base for use in inductive data analysis. iii. Sample design and selection The research sample will comprise residents living close to CS1. 10 regular cyclists and 10 non-cyclists make up the target sample, but a saturation strategy may be used to gain more data. Non-cyclists will be useful for exploring the identity deter- minates that might inform transport decisions, while existing cyclists will provide value by illuminating the identity roles and values held by cyclists. This will allow comparison of similarities or differences between the two groups. iv. Recruitment The recruitment strategy will focus on attracting participants primarily through: so- cial media; leafleting; announcements at community groups; contacting cycling clubs/campaigns, and; comms with the CityConnect team. Some demographics may be difficult to recruit, with any limitations noted and dis- cussed in the analysis. Participants will be interviewed using a semi-structured script informed by the litera- ture review and research questions. Semi-structuring will allow participants to convey authentic feelings that might not be touched upon using a rigid question structure. Interviews will take place in a location where the participant feels comfortable talk- ing, which may be a public space such as a café or community centre. vi. Analysis Analysis will follow an inductive Grounded Theory methodology (process taken from Strauss and Corbin, 1998). v. Interview procedure (CityConnect,2017) (ibikeLondon,2017)