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Masters Dissertation Posters 2017

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Posters summarizing dissertation research projects - presented by MSc students at the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds, April 2017. http://bit.ly/2re35Cs
www.its.leeds.ac.uk/courses/masters/dissertation

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Masters Dissertation Posters 2017

  1. 1. 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 … 2030 Background • China’s first car was made in 1956 and the first private car was made in early 1980; • In 1994, the government started to encourage people to buy private cars; • Nowadays the car ownership in China has reached 290 million With the growth of 27.5 million cars and 33.1 million drivers in 2016 (Xinhua news agency 2017); • Traffic congestion and environment problems have been more serious; • More traffic policies are carried out to restrict the amount of cars since 2008; Private Car ownership analysis in several cities in China Shijun Cheng, M.Sc. Transport Planning & Engineering Supervisor: Zia Wadud Institute of Transport Study (Traffic congestion in Beijing) Source: http://chuansong.me/n/981272952969 The proposed scope • Taking Beijing ,Shanghai ,Tianjin, Guangzhou and Hangzhou as the examples; • The time series are divided into three parts: “1985 - 2008”, “2008 - 2015”, “2015 - 2030”; • Choose GDP per capita (RMB), population data (1,000 people) and fuel price (RMB) as the main valuable factors. The proposed methodology • Econometric model: ln 𝐶𝑡 = 𝐾 + 𝑖=1 𝑚 𝛼𝑖 ln 𝐶𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑗=0 𝑛 𝛽𝑗 ln 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−𝑗 + 𝑘=0 𝑜 𝛾 𝑘 ln 𝑃𝑡−𝑘 𝑙=0 𝑝 δ𝑙 ln 𝐹𝑡−𝑙 + 𝜀𝑡; • For the eq., C is the number of vehicles, GDP is real GDP per capita ,P is population and F is fuel price, 𝜀𝑡 is the error of the econometric model, m n o p will be chosen to fit the error 𝜀𝑡 and α, β, γ, δ, k are the estimated parameters; • Intervention analysis will be used in time series econometrics to estimate the impact of traffic polices. Expected conclusions • GDP per capita and population could be the main variables of the car ownership model; • After carrying out traffic policies, comparing with the actual data, the growth of the car ownership starts to slow down; • The growth of the predictive results should be more slowly. Aims and Objectives • By analysing the previous car ownership data from to get estimated results; • To find the differences between the actual data and estimated results; • Whether the traffic policies have positive impacts on the restraint of car numbers? • What is the predicted value of car ownership in the future (2030)? Private car ownership in China (per 1000) GDP (Population) (Grass Domestic Product) per capita References Bhat, C.R. and Sen, S. 2006. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological. Household Vehicle Type Holdings and Usage: An Application of the Multiple Discrete- Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) Model. [Online]. 40(1).pp 35-53. [Available from]: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261505000093 Dargay, J. et al. 2007. Science Direct: Transportation Research Part A. The effect of prices and income on car travel in the UK. [Online]. 2017(4).pp 949-960. [Available from]: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856407000419 Deng, X. 2007. Private Car Ownership in China: How Important is the effect of Income? [Online]. [Available from]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241654202_Private_Car_Ownership_in_China_How_Important_is_the_effect_of_Income Huang, X. 2011. Michigan Tech: Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports. Car ownership modeling and forecasts for China. [Online]. [Available from]: http://digitalcommons.mtu.edu/etds/444/ Li, J. et al. 2010. Modelling Private Car Ownership in China: Investigation of Urban Form Impact across Megacities. [Online]. [Available from]: https://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=909830 Wadud, Z. 2012. Transportation Research Part A. Transport impacts of an energy-environment policy: The case of CNG conversion of vehicles in Dhaka. [Online]. [Available from]: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856414001128 Wu, T. 2014. Sustainability. Vehicle Ownership Analysis Based on GDP per Capita in China: 1963–2050. [Online]. 2014(6).pp 4877-4899. [Available from]: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277673929_Vehicle_Ownership_Analysis_Based_on_GDP_per_Capita_in_China_1963-2050 Xinhua News Agency. 2017. The car ownership in China.[Online].[Accessed 17 April]. Available from : http://www.gov.cn/shuju/2017-01/11/content_5158647.htm Traffic policies have been taken in 2008 Where will it go in the future? Fuel price per liter (¥)
  2. 2. Experimenter Effect and Demand Characteristics in Driving Simulator Trails The Impact of Experimenter Presence and instructions on Participants’ Behaviour By Abdulhamid Alfalah MSc. Sustainability in Transport Supervised by: Dr. Daryl Hibberd 2nd Reader: Dr. Ruth Madigan In a study by Parameswaran (2003), school children in USA and India were given a task to draw a map of the school’s neighbourhood, in the first study no instructions on the type of map were given. In the second study, participants were split into 2 groups, both groups had instructions on a different type of map required. This resulted in a change in performance in terms of “cognitive maturity” compared to first study. Background Experimenter effect (Experimenter bias), is the experimenter caused bias on the results of an experiment Demand characteristics, are the features in experimental condition that may induce or result in certain behaviours from participants that can affect the results of the experiment To study the effect of demand characteristics conditions in driving simulator trials by studying the effect of experimenter’s presence during the trial, and the effect of different set of instructions on the behaviour of participants. Objective Methodology The study will take place at the University of Leeds low fidelity driving simulator. The participants will be divided into four groups, each group will have to perform the driving task twice •Trial 1: EP/Min •Trial 2: EP/MaxGrp1 "EP" •Trial 1: NP/Min •Trial 2: NP/MaxGrp2 "NP" •Trial 1: Min/NP •Trial 2: Min/EP Grp3 "Min" •Trial 1: Max/NP •Trial 2: Max/EP Grp4 "Max" Instructions Conditions: Minimum instructions(Min), participants will be given general instructions on how to use the simulator, and to stay on a certain lane during the task (until the conditions of the task demand otherwise). Maximum instructions (Max), participants will be given detailed instructions explaining what variables will be measured from their task (i.e. speed, and overtaking behaviour). “Experimenter Presence” conditions: Experimenter present (EP): Experimenter will remain in the same room observing the participants during the task Experimenter NOT present (NP): Experimenter will participants alone during the task Observed Parameters During Task: Speed: variation of Mean, Max, and Min Speed. Overtaking Behaviour: no of overtaking manoeuvres Nichols and Maner (2008) studied the effect of the participants’ previous knowledge of the experiments hypothesis. Participants were told by a confederate a “hypothesis” of the study they are about to participate in. the study found that participants in general tend to behave in way that confirm that hypothesis. Factors like attitudes towards the experiment/ experimenter, social desirability influenced participants’ behaviour. As for transport, little research has been done in this area. A study by Harvey and Burnet (2016) to examine the effect of incentives and instructions on the feeling of “presence” (the extent to which they believed they were actually driving and not in a simulated environment), the study found no significant impact on the participants’ feeling of “presence”, however, incentives are found to induce a lower mean speed. The study focused more on “ecological validity” aspect, it didn’t examine the impact of instructions or other demand characteristics on participants’ behaviour in driving trails. Cues that convey experimental hypothesis Experimenter expectancy expectations may evoke expected behaviour Demand Characteristics bias the results in favour of experimenter belief about experiment Limitations: Possible limitations to proposed approach can be the study of the effect experimenters’ expectations by comparing results of different experimenters. Future Implications: Findings in this research may result in new factors (instructions and other experimenter cues) to be considered in experimental design of simulator trials to eliminate any influence on participants’ behaviour, as well as future research possibilities for additional demand characteristics
  3. 3. LOW-COST DRIVING SIMULATION, UNDERSTANDING TRANSITION OUT OF AUTOMATED DRIVING BY USING DESKTOP SIMULATOR Author: Agung Adri Laksono – MSc Transport Planning Supervisor: Gustav Markkula BACKGROUND STUDY 60% Human behaviour is the most factor that causes road accident (Rosolino et al. (2013) Autonomous vehicles can generate the reduction on road traffic accident - prevent and reduce failure on human factor (Bertoncello and Wee, 2015). However, during the automation, the driver’s attention may shift away and potentially impairs driver’s ability Running desktop simulator can be useful to address these problems by studying several aspect such as the Reaction Time and Visual Angle. Therefore, this research will investigate the reaction time and visual angle during the automation. Also this research will refer to Louw et al., (2017) that has used driving simulator to generate comparative result. To what extent the generated result of experimental reseach on transition out such as reaction time and visual angle in desktop simulator compared to the driving simulator ? RESEARCH QUESTION Aim : Obtain the comparative result between desktop simulator and previous study which used driving simulator in term of investigating the reaction time and visual angle during the transition out. Objectives: AIM & OBJECTIVES Andersen, G. and Sauer, C. (2007). Optical Information for Car Following: The Driving by Visual Angle (DVA) Model. Human Factors, 49(5), pp.878-896. Louw, T., Markkula, G., Boer, E., Madigan, R., Carsten, O. and Merat, N. (2017). Coming Back into the Loop: Driver's Perceptual-Motor Performance in Critical Events after Automated Driving. Transport Research. Louw TL; Merat N (2017) Are you in the loop? Using gaze dispersion to understand driver visual attention during vehicle automation, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 76, pp.35-50. KEY REFERENCES Second Reader: Natasha Merat200985420 - ts16aal@leeds.ac.uk To compare the generated result from low-cost driving simulator (desktop simulator) with the previous result that generated by driving simulator in term of investigating the reaction time and visual angle during the transition out of automated driving. To analyse and identify the important aspects which affect the different result generated by desktop simulator. No Fog + Heavy Fog Heavy Fog + No Fog People will use desktop simulator. First 10 people will be tested no fog then heavy fog. Second 10 people will be tested heavy fog Data Collection Set Up The Experiment The reaction time will be measured take-over time (ttake-over) and the action time (taction). To investigate this case will be use a MATLAB (version R2015b, MathWorks). The visual angle will be measured by setting the distance of the desktop screen to generate proper θ (Andersen and Sauer, 2007). θ = 𝑤 𝑑 Where: θ is the visual angle, w is the width of the LV, and D is the distance between vehicles. Set Up The Experiment METHODOLOGY The recruited participant will be on age between 25 and 45 years old and have driving license. NEXT STEP The study will investigate the reaction time and visual angle, the driver will be tested with 2 different screen manipulations which are no fog and heavy fog. No Fog Heavy Fog University of Leeds Driving Simulator (UoLDS) Location: Participants : ITS Master Students
  4. 4. Assessing Diverging Diamond Interchange against Traditional Signalized Roundabout MSc (Eng) Transport Planning and Engineering BACKGROUND NAME: AHMED ABDELBAKI 2016/17 SUPERVISOR: JEREMY THOMPSON • Roundabout is one of the most effective junction types as it “minimize delay for vehicles whilst maintaining the safe passage of all road users through the junction”, especially when arm flows are reasonably balanced. • When demand exceeds the roundabout capacity, critical queues, unbalanced delays and lower safety level will result. The problem becomes more critical when queues built up and reach the main road on the interchange, even when converting to signal control . • In order to avoid problems on roundabouts and conventional diamond interchanges, an alternative has been introduced in the USA. Diverging Diamond Interchange (DDI) have become a popular choice since 2009. • DDI manages higher traffic volumes and improves safety, performance and cost effective. • DDI has less conflict points (14) than conventional diamonds (26) and more conflict points than a signalised roundabout (12). While, signalized roundabouts require 4 separate signal junctions, the DDI requires only 2, thus reducing delays through the interchange. • DDI is more beneficial for cyclist and pedestrian, improving safety reducing conflicts for these users. • DDIs are operational in 86 intersections in the USA, 3 in France and 1 in UAE, and 1 in Denmark, non in England REFERENCES Evaluate the performance of DDI and signalized roundabout for a case study, considering the following factors: - Delay. - Reserve Capacity. - Space occupied. - Performance Index. - Junction Journey times. • Bared, J., Edara, P. and Jagannathan, R. 2005. Design and Operational Performance of Double Crossover Intersection and Diverging Diamond Interchange. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 1912, pp.31-38. • Claros, B., Edara, P. and Sun, C. 2017. When driving on the left side is safe: Safety of the diverging diamond interchange ramp terminals. Accident Analysis & Prevention. 100, pp.133-142. • Hallworth, M. 1992. SIGNALLING ROUNDABOUTS. 1. CIRCULAR ARGUMENTS. Traffic engineering & control. 33(6). WHY DDI? OBJECTIVES PROPOSED METHODOLOGY WHAT IS DDI? • Vehicles are switched to go in the opposite direction of the carriageway on the intersection, and return back after the intersection. • The interchange manages higher traffic volumes, due to the shorter staging arrangement. On DDI interchanges the right turn into the slip road are unopposed.
  5. 5. Impact of transport investments on health in Ghana Alba Rodríguez Fernández cn14arf@leeds.ac.uk MSc (Eng) Transport Planning and Engineering 1. Context 2. Objective 3. Methodology 4. Scope Supervisor: Jeffrey Turner Second reader: Tony Plumbe The main objective of the study is to analyze the optimal places and type of infrastructure (roads mainly) to invest in trying to improve the connectivity in rural areas of Ghana to make health facilities more accessible for citizens. There will be two ranges to take into account: - The national infrastructure - The rural roads available (focusing on these ones) Connect both of them without creating isolated networks not integrated into the bigger picture scheme is essential in order to be able to keep expanding the system in the future. With the literature studied and the data obtained online through different organisations, plot and study the information using the software QGIS. Steps to follow: − Literature and background study: Infrastructure and health problems. − Critical analysis of the existing network Consider: Topography and climate, Politics and economy, Social situation, Health system, Road sector in Ghana, Transport policies in Ghana, Future plans and strategic programmes, Road maintenance, Prioritise interventions, Possible funding sources, Propose changes in the network and plot them. Using as the main reference the Ghana Living Standards Survey Round 6 (GLSS 6). − Study the service area of the new roads and infrastructure. − Adaptation and mitigation of climate changes. − Technical characteristics of the new network. − Impacts (positives and negatives). − Constrains. − Possible cost of the implementation. − Recommendations. Ghana: - Projected Population: 28,308,301 hab. (2016) - Density: 102 hab./km² - GPD: $120.786 billion - Capital: Accra - Constitutional Republic - Area: 238,535 km2 - Water: 4,61% of the area Characteristics of rural communities: − Well stablished communities: 92.4% have been existing for more than 50 years − Main economic activity: farming (93.5% of rural communities) − 48.9% of rural communities consider that their living conditions have improved in the last 10 years thanks to the provision of electricity and water and improvement in amenities such as roads Facilities − 79.7% of rural communities have access to a mobile phone network − 5.2% have access to a post office − 7.6% have access to banking services Health facilities in rural communities: − 24.9% have a clinic − 10.2% have a maternity home − 3% have a hospital − 9.7% have nurses − 1.0% have doctors − 1.8% have pharmacists − 50.4% consider the lack of health facilities as the major problem and for 14.8% the distance to them is the problem Availability and condition of roads Availability of public transport Main means of public transport (%) Availability (%) Impassability (%) Mini Bus Car REGION Yes No Yes No Yes No Bus Truck/Trotro (taxi) Tractor Other Western 77,1 22,9 40 60 67,6 32,4 2,2 41,3 54,3 - 2,2 Central 82,9 17,1 48,6 51,4 78,1 21,9 - 32 68 - - Greater Accra 85,7 14,3 57,1 42,9 72,7 27,3 - 25 50 - 25 Volta 80,9 19,4 47,2 52,8 63,3 36,7 13,7 60,8 23,5 2 - Eastern 85,2 14,8 55,6 44,4 62,4 37,6 - 35,8 60,4 - 3,8 Ashanti 93,1 6,9 48,3 51,7 75,9 24,1 4,5 50 43,2 2,3 - Brong Ahafo 86,7 13,3 53,3 46,7 70,2 29,8 5 55 40 - - Northern 63,6 36,4 81,8 18,2 29,5 70,5 42,9 46,4 7,1 - 3,6 Upper East 71,4 28,6 67,9 32,1 43,7 56,3 25 56,8 15,9 - 2,3 Upper West 88,5 11,5 46,2 53,8 50 50 34,1 65,9 - - - Total 82,5 17,5 52,2 47,8 57,9 42,1 12,3 48,5 37 0,5 1,7 Three delays model: 1. Delay in decision to seek care • The low status of women • Poor understanding of complications and risk factors in pregnancy and when to seek medical help • Previous poor experience of health care • Acceptance of maternal death • Financial implications 3. Delay in receiving adequate health care • Poor facilities and lack of medical supplies and staff • Inadequate referral systems 2. Delay in reaching care, Distance to health centers • Availability of and cost of transportation • Poor roads and infrastructure • Geography Socioeconomic/ CulturalFactors Accesibility offacilities Qualityofcare 1. Decision to seek Care 2. Reaching medical facility 3. Adequate and appropriate treatment Download this poster 36,1% - 39,4% Supervised delivery 39,4% - 42,6% Supervised delivery 42,6% - 47,9% Supervised delivery 47,9% - 52,6% Supervised delivery 52,6% - 53,7% Supervised delivery 129 -131 deaths per 100,000 live births 131-136 deaths per 100,000 live births 136 -148 deaths per 100,000 live births 148 -215 deaths per 100,000 live births 215 -267 deaths per 100,000 live births 671,043 – 1,015,290 people 1,015,290 – 1,937,301 people 1,937,301 – 2,387,502 people 2,387,502 – 2,555,362 people 2,555,362 – 4,881,427 people Regional Population Projection 2009 Supervised Delivery 2009 Maternal Mortality 2009
  6. 6. •For almost over 30 years in Hong Kong, bus networks have not seen major changes nor innovations. However during this time, 1) people and activities could have changed, 2) roads have become more congested and 3)new MTR railways have ‘caught-up’ and an efficient and reliable substitute has been available. •These changes imply bus amendments are necessary but to date, they have been difficult to conduct - This is because there is a part or section of each bus route which is still more point-to-point and direct compared to using MTR. Also, the Public housing estates which are usually not well-served by the railways but requires affordable transport means that buses are also important for meeting equity needs. All in all, with lots of objections to proposed amendments, oversupply of services is resulted. •It is thus important to ‘rationalize’ transport services by removing wasteful competition to maintain economic efficiency. This study looks, from the basis of passenger and operator welfare-maximization, the extent that rail ‘substituting’ buses is desirable. Background – The ‘problem’ •To conduct bus patronage counts, generalized cost calculations and interviews with passengers on the existing bus services •To form a theoretical model to explain the factors that affect the travel mode choices at different times of day and at different sections of the same corridor •To find out if efficiency can be achieved with equity •To inform and recommend to the policy over the most economic welfare-maximizing competition and/or coordination levels based on the results Aims and Objectives Keen intermodal competition in Hong Kong – Should bus and rail compete with each other or coordinate? Student: Alex Fung - Msc Transport Economics (2016/17) - Supervised by Dr Tony Whiteing & Dr Andrew Tomlinson On 2 representative HK corridors, design a (simplified) O-D trip-matrix based on actual commuting practices; Using Census data to assist identifying O-D pairs Identify the common travel alternatives of these O-D pairs, calculate and compare the generalized costs of using each Also conducting interviews and bus patronage counts, recording passenger opinions (e.g. mode attributes) to help understand the generalized cost difference and to reflect the welfare impacts on operator’s costs when alternative bus strategies are proposed Present the factors affecting generalized cost using a theoretical model, Highlight the factors that are of more significant impact to assist policy recommendations MTR overcrowding Comfortable seats on buses Methodology and Data sources •In general, the mode a lower generalized cost of using implies higher accessibility levels and higher welfare levels enjoyed, for that O-D pair. •It is expected that this study shall respond to the issue of having multi-purpose bus routes that vary in patronage at different sections of the route at different times of day, on what is the social-welfare maximizing competition and/or coordination level for ‘rationalizing’ oversupply of services. •It is believed that the factors outlined in the theoretical model is beneficial for future research in terms of ways to model the relative mode attractiveness on the 2 core urban modes, bus and rail •Policy recommendations of alternative bus strategies: These include long route splitting, limited-stopping arrangement, merging/shortening redundant route sections etc. Expected findings and discussions Slow bus routes high travel time variability Proposed factors that influence generalized costs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 number of bus stops to travel (i.e. delay time) 9 time of day/day of week 10 that will be studied in the scope of this research journey purpose (commute/leisure) anxiety of waiting at bus stops fares Overcrowding at MTR maximum congestion time (buses Only) (i.e. reliability problem) expected number of signalized junctions to pass enroute (buses Only) (i.e. delay time) in-vehicle time waiting time (bus) / access&egress time (rail) Relevant Data Sources: 1) HK Census 2011 to understand the cross district movement along the corridor. 2) Bus on board patronage counts – for daily variations of bus demand 3) Interviews – conducted in the district council office
  7. 7. Understanding Pedestrian Interactions with Automated Vehicles OBJECTIVES To achieve this aim, the following objectives have been set:  Understanding pedestrian interactions with the non-automated vehicles  Studying different aspects of this understanding, such as the cultural differences that have a crucial role in this interrelationship  Finally, understanding of the factors that affect pedestrian interactions with AVs METHODOLOGY & DATA COLLECTION Literature Review of studies regarding the driver-pedestrian interactions, as well as some recent studies regarding the interaction between pedestrians and AVs. Data Collection by focus groups interviews (2-3 with 5-8 people each). The groups consist of participants of different genders and nationalities, with cultural differences who are asked to state their preferred choices across a set of different scenarios. Data collection by questionnaires. They include questions regarding the pedestrians- drivers interactions and some others regarding some important aspects of the pedestrians – AVs interactions, based on the outcomes of the focus groups discussions. Analysis of the results. Qualitative analysis of the focus groups outputs by recording them and taking notes, and statistical analysis of the questionnaires’ results by using the statistical software SPSS. AIM The aim of this project is to understand the interactions between the pedestrians and the drivers of the non - automated vehicles and identify how these interactions may change when introducing automated driving (SAE Level 4 AVs). INTRODUCTION - BACKGROUND  Even though there is some understanding of how pedestrians interpret the actions of vehicles with drivers, there are great challenges for interpreting these communication strategies in the case that the driver is absent or is not maneuvering the vehicle (Merat et al., 2016).  People of different gender, nationalities and with cultural differences perceive the pedestrian - vehicle interactions in a different way.  Pedestrians’ safety might decrease when driver’s role changes from active to passive (Lagstrom and Lundgren, 2015).  Pedestrians perceive this new driver behavior as hazardous when they are unaware that the vehicle is driving in the automated mode (Lagstrom and Lundgren, 2015).  Hence, pedestrians need to be provided with additional feedback in the interaction with the automated vehicles (AVs) due to the inadequate information. KEY REFERENCES • Anderson, J., Kalra, N., Stanley, K., Sorensen, P., Samaras, C. & Oluwatola, O. 2014. Autonomous vehicle technology: a guide for policymakers in Rand Corporation, Arlington, Virginia, USA, pp. 185. • Lagstrom, T. and Lundgren, V.M., 2015. AVIP-Autonomous vehicles interaction with pedestrians (Doctoral dissertation, Thesis). • Merat, N., Madigan, R. and Nordhoff, S., 2016. Human Factors, User Requirements, and User Acceptance of Ride-Sharing in Automated Vehicles. Paper prepared for the ITF Roundtable on Cooperative Mobility Systems and Automated Driving, 6th-7th December, 2016, OECD. • Šucha, M. 2014. Fit to drive: 8th International Traffic Expert Congress. 8-9 May, 2014, Warsaw. Alexandra Kotopouli MSc Transport Economics Supervisor: Ruth Madigan Second Reader: Natasha Merat Figure 2: Pedestrian-vehicle interaction Source: Lagstrom and Lundgren (2015) Figure 1: Pedestrian-driver interaction. Source: Šucha, M. (2014) Figure 3: Focus Groups Interviews
  8. 8. Sebayang, Aliset – MSc (Eng) Transport Planning and Engineering Institute for Transport Studies Email: ts16as@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Alan Jeffery, BSc(hons) CEng MICE FCIHT FCMI Utilization of Aircraft Classification Number and Pavement Classification Number (ACN-PCN) as part of Airport Pavement Management System (APMS) Study Case: Soekarno-Hatta International Airport (SHIA), Jakarta, Indonesia Background ACN-PCN is a method to describe the relationship between the airfield pavement strength and the aircraft. ACN is published by aircraft manufacturers and PCN is issued by the airport's operator. The purpose is to determine whether an aircraft can use an airfield pavement. Four methods of ACN-PCN recognized by International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO): 1. Classic method (CBR method) 2. Graphical method (by UK Dept. of Defence) 3. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) standard method 4. Field test by Heavy-Weight-Deflectometer Expected Findings 1. The method(s) that is preferred to use in evaluating the airport’s PCN value in Indonesia and the reasons 2. The residual life of the existing pavement Objectives 1. To assess which method is preferred by the operator(s) as part of the APMS. 2. To discuss the advantages and the drawbacks in implementing the methods. 3. To evaluate the ACN-PCN of SHIA, Jakarta PCN Reporting Format Ex.: PCN 50/F/B/X/U 1. Numerical PCN Value, an index of the pavement capacity loads regarding of a standard single wheel load at a tyre pressure of 1.25 MPa. 2. Pavement Type: F for flexible and R for rigid. 3. Subgrade Strength Category: A, B, C or D. 4. Allowable Tyre Pressure: X, W, Y or Z. 5. Evaluation Methodology: U for usage and T for technical analysis. Airline passenger rise 19.3% pa (Int.) and 13.4% pa (Dom.) Aircraft movement growth p.a: 19.12% (Int.) and 16.01% (Dom.) Air cargo growth p.a: 19.46% (Int.) and 14.95% (Dom.). More than 17,000 islands Land territory area: 1.9 Million km2 Marine territory area: 3.1 Million km2 The 4th fastest growing market in terms of additional passengers per year by 2035 (IATA, 2016) 299 Airports connecting the islands The Facts of Indonesia Air Transport Source: google.map The Data Collection Flow chart to Calculate PCN for all methods Data Facts of SHIA (2016): • The busiest airport in Indonesia, 18th in the world (ACI, 2015) • One movement every 0.95 minute • 2 runway, 3600 m each • 3 Terminal with cap 26 Million Passengers/year • PCN 120/R/D/W/T Source: google.map Layout of SHIA North Runway South Runway North Taxiway South Taxiway Terminal 1 Terminal 2 Terminal 3 MRO Methodology For Objectives No. 1 and 2: a. Literature review - theoretical research b. Perform a survey regarding the utilization of ACN-PCN of some airports in Indonesia c. Generate the superiorities and the drawbacks of the methods, based on the survey result For Objective No. 3: a. Literature review - theoretical research b. Collect the data from SHIA operator; flight recording, aircraft types, frequency, pressure landing gear, and aircraft maximum take-off weight c. Calculate the ACN-PCN d. Compare the results of the four methods
  9. 9. Introduction Connectivity throughout road networks is an issue of major interest for local and national governments, it is considered as an index of productivity and development. For that reason, studies have been developed to provide a solid framework that helps poli- cymakers to achieve the highest benefit of their decisions. Regardless the deci- sions made, networks may occasionally undergo reductions of their designed capacity due to unexpected and undesirable events such as accidents or nat- ural disasters like earthquakes and flooding. Then, with limited resources for reconstruction and enhancement, policymakers must decide how to distribute the official budget to minimize the impact of possible disrup- tions. Objectives  Formulate the Network Investment Allocation Problem as Mathe- matical Problem with Equilibrium Constrain.  Propose a solution using a Simulating Annealing Approach.  Test different scenarios and evaluate the solution using at least two net- work examples.  Evaluate the performance of the methodology in real scale networks. Theoretical Framework Network Investment Allocation Problem The Network Design Problem (NDP) is formulated to identify the combination of links (i.e. road, streets), whose availability (construction) or capacity expansion, maximize the network benefit (or minimize costs) in order to meet the growing trip demand and prevent congestion (Wang, et al., 2014). Authors subdivide NDP into three categories: Continues Network Design Problems (CNDP), Discrete Network Design Problem (DNDP) and the mixed version (MNDP) (Wang, et al., 2014). The first category suggests to add new links to the network, while the second one aims to increase the existing capacity and the third one is a combination of the first two. In this dissertation it will be formulated the Network Investment Allocation Problem (NIAP). This problem consists on identifying what is the best invest, to recover capacity after disruption or to increase capacity on other non-disrupted links. Simulated Annealing In condensed matter physics, the simulation of the annealing of solids is a process which objective is to minimize the energy between particles by arranging them aleatory. To achieve the minimal energy the solid is exposed to heat until it melts (maximum heat), then it is cooled up slowly until it turns into solid state again (cooling scheme). As analogy of this process, Kirkpatrick (1983) developed an algorithm to solve combinatorial problems, that consists of four elements: a representation of the system, a random generator of per- turbances, an objective function and the annealing schedule (maximum temperature and cooling scheme). Methodology It will be proposed an algorithm to solve the NIAP, which will be first tested using an small network. Once the solution is proved to work, the performance of the algorithm will be evaluated using a real scale network. Algorithm Represent the network as graph. Code and run Method of Successive Average (MSA) to model traffic assignment. Code and run Simulated Annealing. Define objective function: Total travel cost. Create perturbance function: Select randomly the set of links where the investment will be allocated. Set annealing schedule: Trial and error, different tempera- tures and cooling schemes will be logged. Tools  Excel: To store input (coordinates, capacity, demands, paths, etc.) and outputs (flow, new capacities, system cost).  Wolfram Language: To code algorithms and visualise networks. Outputs Network performance: New capacities, flows and travel time. Algorithm performance: Runtimes and convergence. Evaluation of the applicability of the solution to solve the problem of the budged distribution. Discussion of further researches.Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) Start Perform MSA with full capacity Perform MSA with reduced capacity Random modification of previous solution to generate new flows. Random modification of previous so- lution to generate new capacities. Update best solution Store best solution Simulated Annealing Perturbance Generation Is the new so- lution better or meet criteria? Update best solution Is the cooling process finished? YES YES NONO End 2 4 5 1 6 3 Source: Wang, G.M. (2014)
  10. 10. Andrew Robbins Will the forthcoming Trafford Park Metrolink line bring about a car-to-tram modal shift for Trafford Centre visitors? An investigation. Literature Review o Passengers in light rail corridors tend to shift from bus rather than cars (Lee and Senior, 2013). o Light rail has the potential to reduce the rate of increase of highway traffic levels (Bhattachanjee and Goetz, 2012). o Metrolink attracted more passengers than initially forecast when first opened (Knowles, 1996). o Metrolink mainly took mode share from buses when first opened (Senior, 2009). o TfGM is attempting to reduce motorised transport and promote sustainable transport (TfGM, 2017). Background o Trafford Park line to Trafford Centre on Manchester’s Metrolink announced in October 2016. o Reducing car dependency was one of the motivating factors as part of Greater Manchester’s ‘2040 Strategy’ (TfGM, 2017). o The Trafford Centre is an attractive place for car users due to: • Location by the M60 • 11,500 free carparking spaces • ANPR security measures o So, to what extent will Trafford Centre car users switch to using the tram to access the centre? This dissertation will critique this aspect of the scheme. Aim o To evaluate whether more could be done to encourage car-to-tram modal shift for the Trafford Park line and future schemes. Objectives o 1) To establish an understanding of the projections that have been made by the relevant authorities. o 2) To understand the attitudes and behaviours of current car users at the Trafford Centre. o 3) To use previous case studies, literature and primary research to make an overall evaluation of the extent to which a modal shift will occur. Scope o I intend to conduct my questionnaire to a point where I have a substantial and representative sample of car users at the Trafford Centre. o I believe interviews and secondary research will also garner reliable data, as this will provide information that has already been collected with the resources of large organisations. Anticipated Conclusions o Preliminary research (interview with TfGM engineer) suggests that TfGM and associated stakeholders could do more to encourage car users to switch to the Metrolink line once it opens. o Questionnaires collected at the Trafford Centre should assist with making this conclusion. o I intend to provide recommendations for the extent to which TFGM and future scheme planners should take action to encourage this modal shift. Methodology maps.google.co.uk www.metrolink.co.uk Projected ridership of Trafford Park Line (Hunter, 2015) Secondary Data Collection including historical data and projections for Trafford Centre and other case studies.1,3 Semi-Structured Interviews with stakeholders.1,3 Questionnaires at Trafford Centre to determine the attitudes towards the Metrolink Line among car users.2,3 Email Correspondence with stakeholders.1,3 Trafford Centre Preliminary Results o I have already undertaken some preliminary research in the form of a semi-structured interview with a Business Case Developer for the Trafford Park Line and a study of grey literature: • 90% public support for the scheme. • TfGM wants to create a ‘viable alternative’ for car users, but whether car users will switch modes remains unclear. • The focus seems to be on bus users and those without access to a car. o These results will inform the questions that I ask in my questionnaire. manchesterhistory.net
  11. 11. Evaluating transport governance structures for Metro Manila using cases on mass transit programmes Anne Patricia E. Mariano, ts16apem@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Dr. Katharine Pangbourne Second Reader: Professor Greg MarsdenMSc Sustainability in Transport Potential Cases: Mass Transit Programmes 1.  Limited-stop bus services were introduced in 2015 to encourage bus ridership. These services successfully reduced travel ?me but do not replace exis?ng routes. 2.  Studies were conducted in 2014 and 2016 to (a) iden?fy required mass transit routes by reviewing demand and exis?ng services, and (b) present op?misa?on plans for 3 routes. These are yet to be implemented in favour of further studies. 3.  Infrastructure projects such as a bus rapid transit system between 2 ci?es and a commuter rail to connect 4 regions were posi?vely received by stakeholders albeit with concerns on the poli?cal costs of land acquisi?on. Mode Share of Metro Manila Trips Based on household interview surveys and a total of 35.5 million trips (JICA, 2014) Transportation Issues •  Total metro rail lines of only 50km (DOTr, 2015) •  Transit primarily informal, lacking organised stops, schedules, and services (DOTr, 2015) •  18% increase in travel 9me on buses from 1996 to 2014 (JICA, 2015) •  Over 2M registered vehicles and some of the worst conges?on in the world (DOTr, 2015; Waze, 2015) Es?mates put Metro Manila conges9on costs at GBP 37.5M every day. (JICA, 2014) Selected References • Aberbach, J. and Rockman, B. 2002. Conduc?ng and coding elite interviews. PoliDcal Science & PoliDcs, 35(04), pp.673-676. • Creswell, J. 2007. QualitaDve inquiry and research design: Choosing among five approaches. 2nd edi?on. California: Sage Publica?ons. • DOTr. 2015. Metro Manila 2015-2030: Approaches to Current Transporta?on Issues for the Future. • Japan Interna?onal Coopera?on Agency [JICA]. 2014. Final Report - Main Text. Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas. • JICA. 2015. MUCEP Progress. The Project for Capacity Development on TransportaDon Planning and Database Management in the Republic of the Philippines (MUCEP). • Philippine Sta?s?cs Authority. 2016. Regional Accounts of the Philippines. [Online]. [Accessed 21 April 2017]. Available from h`ps://psa.gov.ph/regional-accounts/grdp/ data-and-charts • Waze. 2015. Global Driver Sa?sfac?on Index. [Online]. [Accessed 20 April 2017]. Available from h`ps://blog.waze.com/2015/09/global-driver-sa?sfac?on-index.html The study will focus on the following: 1.  What are the formal and informal boundaries of Metro Manila in terms of transporta?on? 2.  Who are the decision-makers for the planning and implementa?on of transporta?on programmes in Metro Manila? 3.  What organisa?onal or mandate issues do these decision-makers face in planning or implementa?on, in light of a specific programme to improve mass transit? 4.  What policy or organisa?onal changes can address these issues? Research Questions Regional Development Council – Na?onal Capital Region Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Department of Transporta?on Department of Public Works and Highways Na?onal Economic and Development Authority Proposed Methodology This study will employ qualita?ve research methods (Creswell, 2007). To gain a deeper understanding of the issues, semi-structured interviews with open-ended ques?ons will be conducted with stakeholder representa?ves (Aberbach and Rockman, 2002). These may include the DOTr, the MMDA, 2-3 LGUs depending on the case study, and, if relevant, public individuals. All data will be anonymised. Legisla?on, historical and current events, and similar cases will be reviewed prior to fieldwork. This will aid in formula?ng ques?ons and iden?fying relevant stakeholders. Due to ?me constraints, all interviews will be scheduled over one week in June 2017. Coordina?ng with officials will be crucial to data quality. Collected data will be transcribed and coded to enable analysis. Review of literature On Metro Manila; metro regions; qualita?ve research; and elite interviews Formula?on of ques?ons and iden?fica?on of interviewees Conduct of face-to-face interviews Data analysis and formula?on of conclusions *Coloured areas on map depict potenDal study areas. Jeepney, 19% Tricycle, 16% Bus, 7% Train, 4% Other Public Modes, 3% Motorcycle, 8% Car, 8% Taxi, 1% Other Private Modes, 3% Walking, 31% Public 17,335 Private 7,253 Walking 10,913 Overview: Metro Manila Transportation Area: 636km2, 0.21% of country Popula?on (2015): 12.88M, 12.75% of country Economic Output (20151): GBP 43.3B, 36.5% of country Public transit op?ons: 3 metro rail lines 82 bus routes 124 u?lity vehicle routes 677 jeepney routes 1Constant 2000 prices Local Government Units (LGUs): 16 ci9es 1 municipality Regional Agencies: MMDA – Metropolitan Manila Development Authority Na?onal Agencies: DOTr – Department of Transporta?on DPWH – Department of Public Works and Highways NEDA – Na?onal Economic and Development Authority LGUs are led by elected mayors, while regional and na?onal agencies are typically led by presiden?al appointees.
  12. 12. Data Fusion: A Simulation Approach Aseem Awad Institute for Transport Studies, Leeds Objectives We explore ways of addressing the issue of Verac- ity and Value in Big Data. • Apply techniques of Data Fusion to create a Origin-Destination with high fitness-for-use, to provide benchmark for the performance of our models. • Create Geospatial Microsimulation to visualize results of the transport model based on our datasets. Focus on one system. • Use the hybrid Geospatial Microsimulation to iteratively improve a simulation model of the urban system. Compare the results with analytical approaches. Introduction Transport modelling can be conceptualised as mod- elling of transport demand, transport supply and the evolving interaction of these two factors. In this dis- sertation we set out to create and exhibit a demand model with high fitness-for-use by utilising Data Fu- sion and an innovative hybrid of Spatial Microsimu- lation and Agent-Based simulation. Figure 1: Agent-Based model to simulate changes in the built environment of East Anglia Materials The following materials are required to complete the research: • A social media dataset coming from active individuals. (STRAVA) • Data of Automatic Traffic Detection readings. • Data regarding Land-Use and demographics. • A software suitable for Agent-Based Simulation. Previous attempts in this direction have been made using MATsim-T and NetLogo. We intend to use R and NetLogo. Methodology • We apply the ITS Data Fusion techniques described in [1] to STRAVA and other demographic datasets. • We use Geospatial Microsimulation for a separate process of Data Fusion. • We iteratively calibrate the simulation model and the analytical model used for Data Fusion. • We conclude by an analysis of the relation between Active Travel, Public Transport and Land Use/demographic variables. The Central Research Question How to fuse data from social media with traditional datasets to create high quality data? What role can Geospatial Microsimulation and Agent-Based Modelling serve in this process? Underlying Architecture of Data Fusion Figure 2: The typical Architecture of Data Fusion techniques. [2] [3] is the first paper that uses Geospatial Microsim- ulation for the purpose of Data Fusion. The simula- tion can display the efficacy of a given algorithm. Application of the Technique Figure 3: A link existing? The relation between active travel, public transit and Land-Use characteristics provides a rich area for research. We aim to get a detailed picture of the active travel occurring in our area of choice. We can use the dataset to infer the relation of active travel with Land-Use and Public Transit. As a conclusion we hope to demonstrate the relation between these elements. Additional Information Figure 4: City of Glasgow in motion. Projection of a dataset acquired by UBDC This project has established relationships with orga- nizations that specialize in collecting and curating data. CDRC in Leeds and Urban Big Data Center (UBDC) will be involved in the acquisition of data. References [1] Nour-Eddin El Faouzi, Henry Leung, and Ajeesh Kurian. Data fusion in intelligent transportation systems: Progress and challenges–a survey. Information Fusion, 12(1):4–10, 2011. [2] David Lee Hall and Sonya AH McMullen. Mathematical techniques in multisensor data fusion. Artech House, 2004. [3] Chris Bachmann, Baher Abdulhai, Matthew J Roorda, and Behzad Moshiri. A comparative assessment of multi-sensor data fusion techniques for freeway traffic speed estimation using microsimulation modeling. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 26:33–48, 2013. Contact Information • Email: ts16ara@leeds.ac.uk • Phone: +44 7435703778
  13. 13. 1. Introduction India ranks high in road traffic fatalities. India has the 2nd largest road network in the World[1] but lags qualitatively[2]. A report[3] based on in-depth crash data highlights that all fatal crashes in urban Kolkata (Nov’14 to Nov’15) had at least one infrastructure factor contributing to its incidence. My research study aims to identify and address such factors in a junction in the city of Kolkata, India. 4. Location identification o Identify one location from 516 crashes with GPS locations • Should have high accident incidence • Be a typical junction to develop a template for transferability 8. References [1] www.telegraphtravelteam.carto.com [2] www.web.worldbank.org [3]Kolkata City Fatal Accident Study 2016, JP Research India Pvt. Ltd. 6. Intervention development o Literature review for possible solutions to identified problems o Develop relevant interventions based on local conditions • CAD will be used for design, if required • ARCADY/LinSig to be used for intervention assessment 5. Problem identification o Registered accidents considered as “case studies” and analysed for following crash parameters: • Crash configuration • Kind of accident o Additional data to be collected on traffic volume and counts 2. Objectives o Identify a junction with high crash incidence o Study crashes to understand the interactions leading to crash occurrence o Literature review to list possible solutions and develop relevant changes o Assess the proposed changes using relevant software o Transferability of changes to other locations 3. Data Source and basic statistics Fatal crashes data from JP Research India Private Limited (JPRI) o 719 crashes registered between Nov’14 to Nov’16 (24months) • 53% of 719 crashes involved pedestrians • 54% of 706 fatalities were pedestrians • 20% of accidents involved vehicles moving in the same direction 0% 0% 0% 81% 19% Human VehicleInfrastructure Pedestrian, 384Same direction traffic, 140 Pedestrian Same direction traffic Leaving carriageway Opposing traffic Turning/crossing Obstacles in carriageway Other kind Unknown DEVELOPMENT OF INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS FOR REDUCING FATAL ACCIDENTS IN KOLKATA, INDIA QGIS plot of 516 crashes 516 accidents Evenly spread throughout city QGIS filtering to locations > 2 crashes within 100m2 area 12 Locations: 45 accidents Max: 6 accidents Includes: Junctions Roundabouts Grade separated junc. Parking bay entry 2 Locations: 12 accidents 1. Typical 4-arm junction, lower traffic density 2. Most vulnerable, includes tram line, grade separated overhead bridge, high traffic density 7. Transferability o Improved junction design will to be used as base template • Most locations have ensuing crash configurations in common (Front-rear, front-side, pedestrian, object) o Numerical extrapolation of number of accidents prevented with proposed changes Kind of Accident Contributory factors [3] Bhuvanesh Bharath Alwar M, MSc (Eng) Transport Planning and Engineering Junction Ped. Acci. Veh. Acci. Fatalities Raja Dinendra street - Shri Aurobindo Sarani 2 2 4
  14. 14. Commuter’s Perception of BRT Classic, Lagos, Nigeria. Popoola, Boluwatife. M.Sc. Transport Planning and Engineering. ts16btp@leeds.ac.uk   The economic hub of Nigeria.  Largest city in Africa with a population of about 18 million, and growing at 6% per annum.  Pioneered Africa’s first BRT system in 2008 Lagos BRT Classic implemented 2015 Fully Segregated 13.5Km Median Side Corridor Daily Ridership of about 140,000 commuters No or Unknown research about customer perception and system performance in global context  To investigate the level of commuter’s satisfaction with BRT Classic, Lagos.  To identify how the BRT Classic can be improved and extended to other locations in Lagos. 1. Introduction 3. Research  Questions 5. Methodology  The perception of the Lagos BRT classic will be restricted to its customers only.  Lagos BRT Classic improvement recommendations will be confined to ITDP‘s scored Gold and Silver BRT systems.  BRTs offer services similar to light rails but have lower capital and operating cost, shorter design and implementation time than Light Rail Transit  BRTs are becoming more popular in cities 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Pre 2000 Post 2000 Number of BRT Systems, Globally  Measuring transit performance is critical for improving service quality, allotting resources, regulation and improving ridership  Customers perception is relevant for evaluating transit performance because they are the sole judge of service quality How satisfied are Lagos commuter’s with BRT Classic? How can Lagos BRT Classic been improved to increase customer satisfaction and ridership? Where should new BRT systems be implemented in Lagos? 4. Research  Objectives 6. Scope of Study 7. Potential Risks 2. Study Area: Lagos PRE BRT POST BRT  Lapse in LAMATA and survey team cooperation  Respondents may be multimedia tablet illiterates  Theft of multimedia tablet Supervisor: Tony Plumbe Background Study Overview of Lagos BRT Classic  Discussion on Findings • Satisfactory Level • Improvement Measures • BRTs Extension Data Analysis and Interpretation • Quadrant Analysis • Impact Score • Heterogeneous Customer‐ Satisfaction Index • Secure Customer Index Chart Customer Satisfaction Survey On‐board online questionnaire survey using multimedia tablets Literature Review Reviews from BRT concepts and international experience Customer  Satisfaction Levels Transit  Performance Improve Service  Quality Improve  Satisfaction  Levels Increase  Ridership &  Retain Loyalty New BRT Reference Global BRT Data. 2016. http://brtdata.org Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA). 2017. Periodic Impact Assessment on Key  Performance for Bus Rapid Transit. Lagos. (Confidential) Oña, D.J and Oña, D.R. 2014. Quality of service in public transport based on customer satisfaction  surveys: A review and assessment of methodological approaches. [Online]. pp.1‐47. [Accessed 12  February 2017]. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271512605 Transportation Research Board, 2003b. Transit Capacity and Quality of Service Manual. TCRP Report 100.  National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.  Wright, L. and Hook, W. 2007. Bus Rapid Transit: Planning Guide. [Online]. pp. 1‐836. [Accessed 20  November 2016] Available from: https://www.itdp.org/wp‐content/uploads/2014/07/52.‐Bus‐Rapid‐ Transit‐Guide‐PartIntro‐2007‐09.pdf
  15. 15. 1 2 3 4 12 34 Datacollection By:BowenZhang (Email:ts16bz@leeds.ac.uk) Supervisor:Dr.AndrewTomlinson Farescrossingdifferent classonsamefights farescrossingdifferent spaceinsameroutes/class Publicdatasource Dataexample PitchandWidthDataiscollectedfrom www.seatguru.com LowestPriceiscollectedfrom www.britishairways.com,therouteisfrom LHRtoPEK,thetraveldateis3rdMay2017 Mainreference Kremser,F.,Guenzkofer,F.,Sedlmeier,C.,Sabbah,O.andBengler,K.2012. Aircraftseatingcomfort:Theinfluenceofspaceonboardonpassengers’ well-being.Work.41(Supplement1),pp.4936–4942. Lee,D.andLuengo-Prado,M.J.2004.Arepassengerswillingtopaymore foradditionallegroom?JournalofAirTransportManagement.10(6), pp.377–383. Pels,E.2008.Airlinenetworkcompetition:Full-serviceairlines,low-costairPels,E.2008.Airlinenetworkcompetition:Full-serviceairlines,low-costair- linesandlong-haulmarkets.ResearchinTransportationEconomics.24(1), pp.68–74. .wechoosetocollectdatafrom differentfull-serviceair- lineswhichhavemorethan3classesofserviceorpersonal space. Theresearchwillfocusonlong-haulflight(8hoursor more),becausepersonalspacebecomesmoreimportantin whichalong-distancetrip. Scopeoftheresearch IsPassengerpersonalspaceakeyfactoraffectingflight ticketfare? Whatistherelationshipbetweenairlineticketpriceand passengerpersonalspace? Canwedrawthecurvetoindicatetherelationshipbetween valueforperincreasinginch2ofpersonalspace? Researchquestions Personalspaceisanimportantfactoraffectingthecomfort andtravelexperience.Therefore,thereareaaseriesof questionsaboutthepersonalspaceandpossibleeffectfor ticketfaresacrossfullserviceairline.Thepurposeofthis researchisrevealingthepotentialrelationship. Background Methodology Isitakeyfactoraffectingflightticketfare? PASSENGERPERSONALSPACE
  16. 16. ` Carlos Caro Martin MSc Transport Economics Supervisor: Dr Andrew Smith Second Reader: Dr Manuel Ojeda Cabral Background 1. Is the length of the contract a determinant factor of efficiency? 2. Is any different behaviour depending of the years remaining in the contract? Aim, objectives and data a) Create a framework for all rail franchises to be able to evaluate an optimum length of the franchise b) Evaluation of each franchise to provide justifications or expected level performance for each company c) Provide recommendation for future actions Quantitative analysis: econometric analysis of cost functions  Creation of a cost frontier to measure the level of inefficiency amongst companies Qualitative analysis: research of the political and contextual situation of each company and franchise  Inclusion of additional value outside the data analysis Methodology Data analysis may offer a single case for every single scenario, therefore the extrapolation for different situations could be biased and mistaken. Also, a controlled experiment or the effect of changing only one variable and observe the effect is limited in reality. In some occasions, the market decisions are not following a procedure but different political and social agendas.  Liberalization of rail services as example of public tender for public service contracts (Nash et al 2016)  Aiming a balance between quality of public service and economic efficiency of the system (McNulty 2011)  Different studies in economies of scope and scale but not so many in length franchise  Unique variety of examples in the UK due to all routes already privatised in this system  UK and UE currently promote tendering systems and franchise length is a key factor Limitations German evidence suggest that longer franchises are cost effective, better deals on rolling stock and incentives to better practices are opportunities from longer deals (Nash et al 2016). There are to be expected differences in companies behaviour depending on the moment on their contracts, and also depending of their expectations to continue with the activity. Understanding of a system with different behaviours depending of the context. In the decision making process, the political and historical heritage are possibly as important as current economic performance. Results expected The length of the franchise should be able to be modified depending of the conditions of each line. Long contracts in systems where investments are needed and better rolling stock deals are possible. Short contracts where the situation is about to change in a near future, or not possible to obtain benefits from big investments. The flexibility in length should be another efficiency factor. In addition, in this case, length is easier to modify than other parameters. Nash C., Crozet Y., Link H., Nilsson, J.-E., Smith A., 2016. Liberalisation of passenger rail services. Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE). DfT 2011. McNulty report. Realising the potential of GB rail: final report of the rail value for money study: detailed report. Department for Transport: Office of Rail Regulation, London. DfT 2016. Rail franchise schedule. Department for Transport [website] Office of Rail Regulation, London References Current situation Cost frontier: establish the level of inefficiency for each firm at an output level A’ Inefficiency of firm A o Dataset of 482 samples for all (roughly 20) TOC companies data since 2000 to 2016 o Dataset already contains cost variables: fixed and variables costs (access, salaries, rolling stock, etc.) o Inclusion of two new variables: years of the franchise and years pending to end the contract Movements in cost frontier due to dummy variables depending of contract length
  17. 17. 1. BACKGROUND • China’s "One Belt, One Road" initiative prompted the construction and operation of China-Europe 'Silk Road' Rail Network. • China is one of the largest manufacturing centre. Trade between EU and China keeps increasing in recent years, while about 10.1% of the imports and 6.3% of exports in 2016 were electronic products. • Air pollution is responsible for tens of thousands of early deaths every year. And in EU 51% of NOx and 20% of PM2.5 emissions were from transport in 2015. 2. SCOPE Key Words Eurasian Landbridge, Logistics, Emission Area China: Focus on 5 electronic industrial bases European Cities: London Rotterdam Hamburg Oslo Mode 3. METHODOLOGY • Rail and road freight transport- García- Álvarez et al (2013) • Shipping- Jalkanen et al (2012) STEAM2 • Airline- Moniruzzaman et al (2011) 4. KEY REFERENCES Data Source • China Statistical Yearbook • Ministry of Commerce PRC Statistic • UN Comtrade Database • IMF Data Geography • The Geography of Transport Systems • Geographic Information System Routes between China and Europe Energy Consumption and Pollutant Emission Evaluation for Each OD Pair by Each Mode Research Target Origins and Destination Choosing Comparison Analysis on Emission Volumes from Each Mode in Each Route Pollutant Impact on: Human Vegetation Climate Carbon dioxide Major greenhouse gas Nitrogen dioxide Respiratory irritation Acidification of soil and water, over-fertilizing Has high greenhouse potential, lead to ozone formation Particulates Respiratory damage, various toxic content Reduced assimilation 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 EU Trand flows with China (Billion €) Exports Imports Emission Evaluation of Freight Transport Between Europe and China in Electronic Trade CHUCHU XIE ts16cx@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Anthony Whiteing MSc Transport Planning and the Environment
  18. 18. Data collection: The study incorporates the collection of both primary and secondary data for an in-depth investigation. Primary data will be collected though a structured self-administer questionnaire. A draft questionnaire has been developed and will be pilot tested on 30 respondents and modifications will be made based on pilot testing. Secondary data will be collected from academic journals, company reports and books which will be used to define the research objectives and to explore various facts. Data analysis and interpretation of surveys: The questionnaire data composed of closed rating scale questions will be compare against existing literature and a descriptive analysis with bar charts and pie charts will be used. THE POTENTIAL USE OF MOBILE PHONE PAYMENTS FOR TRANSPORT TICKETS WITH PARTICULAR REFERENCE TO UGANDA. Agaba Collins | Tony Plumbe (Supervisor) | Jeff Turner (2nd Reader) 1. Motivation There’s a growing use of mobile phones for the payment of utilities and other services in Uganda and this service could be used for the payment of public transport tickets. Currently, Public transport in Uganda operates on manual based system which poses challenges like retrieval of information and planning for public transport in Uganda. My international experience with cashless payment for transport tickets showed me that a solution could be provided by using mobile phone payments which will benefit public transport users, operators and the government. 2. Research Objectives • To review and access the merits of smart ticketing and applications in the world today. • To assess the acceptability and likely behavioural responses to introducing bus mobile phone ticketing in Uganda. 4. Case Study Area 3. Scope 6. Methodology Focus will be on mobile phone payment for travel tickets for intercity 67 seater coaches. There are other means of public transport for example 14 seater mini buses and 32 seater coaster buses that operate between the two towns, this study will not include them. The study is confined to daytime coach travellers between two towns Kampala and Mbarara – Uganda for the period between May and June 2017. 5. Current applications 7. Expected outcomes • Measurement of the acceptability for mobile phone payment for transport tickets in Uganda. • Analysis of the likely travel behaviour should mobile phone payments for transport tickets be introduced in Uganda. • An analysis of the benefits, importance and challenges of adopting mobile phone payment for transport tickets in Uganda. 8. Key references • Uganda communications commission. 2016. Annual market report 2015/2016. [online]. [Accessed 26th April 2017]. Available from: http://www.ucc.co.ug/files/downloads/Annual_Market%20_&_Industry_Report_20 15-16_FY.pdf • Gutierrez, E. and Choi, T. 2014. Mobile money services development: the cases of the Republic of Korea and Uganda. Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 6786. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. Available from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/503961468174904206/Mobile- money-services-development-the-cases-of-the-Republic-of-Korea-and-Uganda Comparison of mobile phones and Mobile Money Subscribers’ Statistics in Uganda.
  19. 19. (CityConnect,2017) 1. Research Context Despite a raised profile in recent years the modal share for cycling in West Yorkshire is 0.8% of all commuting trips, half the national average (Rogers, 2013).  CityConnect is a £6m cycling infrastructure/promotion programme managed by West Yorkshire Combined Authority and funded by the Department for Transport  It aims to make cycling “the natural choice for short journeys”  The first physical leg, CS1, opened in June 2016 from west Leeds to Bradford By February 2017, 100,000 trips had been made on CS1, but limited work has taken place so far to gauge usage by local residents. 2. Transport and identity theory Traditionally, predictions of transport mode choice have been based on cost, time and effort (Van Acker et al, 2013). However, these theories don’t ex- plain differences in transport choices by “individuals in similar situations and with similar socio-economic circumstances” (Heinen, et al 2011; Hei- nen, 2016). Now, a burgeoning body of work “suggests that decisions to cycle are af- fected by perceptions of ‘bicyclists’ in the community, and whether or not an individual wants to be identified with that group” (Sherwin, 2014). “Transport identities, social-role identities, self-identities and place identi- ties are important predictors of mode choice and change” (Heinen, 2016). Identity theory in transport can be largely ascribed to :  cultural identity (e.g. ethnicity)  social identity, indicating identification with a group or social category (Tajfel and Turner, 1986), i.e. a link between the self and social structure (Stryker, 1987).  Self identity, or the meaning that individuals attach to themselves (Heinen, 2016). A value set rather than a role.  The identities that local residents assume and/or subscribe to may there- fore have an influence on their transport choices and use of CS1. Increasing cycling could:  Enhance air quality  Reduce congestion  Increase access to services  Improve physical and mental health CityConnect - Cycling and Identity in Leeds Daniel Gillett, MSc Sustainability in Transport, pt08djg@leeds.ac.uk Supervisors – Eva Heinen and Caroline Mullen 5. Application of findings West Yorkshire Combined Authority’s Transport Strategy and the Leeds City Council Interim Transport Strategy both support the goals of the Strategic Economic Plan for West Yorkshire, which aims to achieve “good”, or sustaina- ble, growth for the region. As both transport documents pledge to increase cycling levels, a deeper un- derstanding of why people do or do not cycle will be desirable when encourag- ing behaviour change, even where segregated infrastructure is provided. Work done to understand the role that identity can play in making the decision whether to cycle, not cycle, or opt for a different transport mode could there- fore potentially be used to inform promotional campaigns or individual inter- ventions designed to encourage cycling and address identity roles or values which might obstruct positive decisions on travelling by bike. 3. Research Goals This dissertation uses identity theory to explore the extent to which identity can influence the decision to cycle and might influence the patronage of CS1. As a comparatively risky area to cycle (Lovelace, 2016), many people in West Yorkshire cite danger as a barrier to cycling. CityConnect aims to challenge this be providing dedicated, segregated infrastructure. Therefore, it will be worthwhile to investigate whether identity remains an in- fluential factor in the decision making process even when cycling provision is promoted as “safe”. Considering that the scheme also attempts to normalise cycling through promotional or “soft” measures, the data may also provide some insight into potential promotional measures specific to the area. Key Research Questions  Who do residents living along CS1 perceive as cyclists? Who is cycling for? Who cycles?  Do residents’ social identities (i.e. their societal roles) or self identity (i.e. their personal values) influence their decision to cycle?  Would it be acceptable within a resident’s direct, less-direct and wider so- cial circles to identify, or be identified, as a cyclist? 4. Methodology (IndicesofDeprivationexplorer2015) As CS1 passes through a diverse range of communities, there is likely to be a valuable assortment of social identities and identity values among residents. i. Overview This research will follow a qualitative approach based on a grounded theory meth- odology, and comprise of interviews with residents living close to CS1. As notions of identity involve emotional elements, the aim is to collect lived experiences of the social world, so a qualitative approach is justified (Liamputtong and Ezzy, 2005; Bei- rão and Cabral, 2007; Grosvenor, 2000). ii. Literature review Literature will be reviewed in further detail to inform questioning and establish an a priori knowledge base for use in inductive data analysis. iii. Sample design and selection The research sample will comprise residents living close to CS1. 10 regular cyclists and 10 non-cyclists make up the target sample, but a saturation strategy may be used to gain more data. Non-cyclists will be useful for exploring the identity deter- minates that might inform transport decisions, while existing cyclists will provide value by illuminating the identity roles and values held by cyclists. This will allow comparison of similarities or differences between the two groups. iv. Recruitment The recruitment strategy will focus on attracting participants primarily through: so- cial media; leafleting; announcements at community groups; contacting cycling clubs/campaigns, and; comms with the CityConnect team. Some demographics may be difficult to recruit, with any limitations noted and dis- cussed in the analysis. Participants will be interviewed using a semi-structured script informed by the litera- ture review and research questions. Semi-structuring will allow participants to convey authentic feelings that might not be touched upon using a rigid question structure. Interviews will take place in a location where the participant feels comfortable talk- ing, which may be a public space such as a café or community centre. vi. Analysis Analysis will follow an inductive Grounded Theory methodology (process taken from Strauss and Corbin, 1998). v. Interview procedure (CityConnect,2017) (ibikeLondon,2017)
  20. 20. Background Aims and Objectives GPS Tracking Data Filter by Stata GPS Tracking Data Visualisation by GPS Visualizer Methodology and Scope 5 Current Progress Next Steps  Process the whole data for visualisation, speed calculation and analysis on other road links in different areas to evaluate the shopping impact on congestion.  Quantify impact level by the multiple linear regression model. 𝑣 = 𝛽0 + 𝑖=1 7 𝛽𝑖 𝐿𝑖 𝛿𝑖 𝐿𝑖: Distance from Gravity Centre of Zone i to centre of certain road- link 𝛿𝑖: 0 and 1 variable, 0 variable: shops close; 1 variable: shops open Congestion Attributed to Shopping using GPS Tracking Data -- Dhaka Case StudyChen, Danlei MSc Transport Planning ts16dc@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Zia Wadud; 2nd Reader: Ian Philips 𝑣: average speed for road-links 𝛽0 ⋯ 𝛽𝑖: Regression Coefficients References One Road Sample Test Data Filter: All vehicles GPS tracking data on New Elephant Road between 3:00 pm to 7:00 pm in from March to December. Shops Close on Full Tuesday and Half Wednesday Data base: 5444347 GPS tracking data for 70 vehicles in 2010 in Dhaka provided by Dr Zia Wadud.  In many developing countries, shopping is one of the main reasons for traffic congestion, due to the lack of parking restrictions around the shopping centre.  While it is widely accepted that shopping can contribute significantly to the congestion (Kumaat et al, 2015), there is often no evidence of quantification of the impact.  Weekly holidays of shopping centres at different parts in Dhaka helps to analyse the changes in traffic speed and congestion.  Visualise GPS tracking data to understand the changes of congestion.  Quantify the impact of shopping on traffic speed change in road-links.  Determine the congestion costs attributable to shopping. Results p < 0.005, there is evidence of a change in the underlying mean speed. Shop Open Shop Close Number 607 351 Mean 8.6024 14.1973 Median 3.9309 8.9282 Variance 107.543 206.584 Minimum 0.0000 0.0000 Maximum 49.0586 84.5174 To optimize Speed Distribution Curve, make the logarithm of speed and set the speed of 0 to 0.1. In this figure, there is difference in two scenarios. Speed Analysis 3.Hypothesis Testing Using a 5% significance level, test whether there has been a change in mean speed as a result of the shops closure and opening. 2.Speed Distribution Analysis Using MATLAB to fit speed and output the Speed Distribution and Statistic Description. Comparing GPS tracking data in Shop Closure(above) and Opening(below), there are more data appear on Opening scenario. 1.Speed Calculation 𝑠𝑝𝑒𝑒𝑑 = 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑎𝑑𝑗𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 30𝑠 Shops close on Tuesday and Wednesday Shops open on Monday and Thursday Two-sample t-statistic Shops: Open; Office: Open Speed Analysis GPS tracking data Compare Speed and Statistics for congestion analysis Shopping effects on congestion  Kumaat, M., Mulyono, A.T., Sjafruddin, A., Setiadji, B.H., 2015. Congestion as a result of school and shopping centre activity, International Journal of Science and Engineering, 9(2), 106-112.  The Daily Star, 2010. Businesses to stay shut alternately. [Online]. [Accessed 24th Feb 2017]. Available from: http://www.thedailystar.net/news-detail-124484 Speed Analysis GPS tracking data Shops: Close; Office: Open
  21. 21. Structural Performance Assesment Method on National Road Network Case Study : Semarang National Road, Indonesia Student : Hardiansyah, Dian ; Supervisor : David Rockliff ; Second Reader : Chandra Balijepalli Background : • Indonesia Integrated Road Management System (IIRMS) nowadays only consider pavement functional aspect to determine road maintenance program. • The system is perceived to be less qualified since structural problem may occur under a good visible surface condition • North coast line National Road on Central Java Island has been one of the busiest roads with High Traffic Volume in Indonesia. • Inappropriate road maintenance methods on National Road in Indonesia bring various defects to pavement condition. • Road Defects inevitably cause huge traffic congestion on National road and disrupt the smoothness goods and services’ distribution around the area, causing huge economic loss. Objectives : • Identify factors affecting pavement structural performance • Analysing the structural performance of particular National Road in Central Java based on Back Calculation method using the data of FWD (Falling Weight Deflectometer) survey • Assessing pavement layers structurally with the support of ELMOD 6 (Evaluation of Layer Moduli and Overlay Design) software. • Determining the suitable maintenance based on existing structural pavement performance resulted from the assessment. Research Questions : • What are the things that need to be considered on assessing pavement structurally? • How to assess road pavement structurally instead of functionally? • What is the appropriate maintenance method based on the result of structural performance assessment? • Can what we do in Indonesia be improved by introducing techniques used in other countries? Data Collection of Falling Weight Deflectometer Survey (FWD) Structural Pavement Performance based on Back Calculation Method of FWD Survey Structural Pavement Performance based on The Evaluation of Layer Moduli using ELMOD 6 Pavement Maintenance Program based on Back Calculation Method Pavement Maintenance Program based on Layer Moduli of ELMOD 6 Comparison of Pavement Maintenance Program based on structural assessment with the existing maintenance program on IIRMS Conclusion and Recommendation Methodology : Basic Formula: Back Calculation : • Radius of Curvature (RoC) = ( ) ( ) • Base Layer Index (BLI) = − • Middle Layer Index (MLI) = − • Lower Layer Index (LLI) = − (Horak, et, al ; 2006) References : • Huang, Yang, 1993. Pavement Analysis and Design. New Jersey, USA : Prentice Hall. • Pearson, D. 2012. Deterioration and Maintenance of Pavement. London, UK : ICE Publishing. • Horak, E., and Emery, S., 2006, Falling Weight Deflectometer Bowl Parameters As Analysis Tool for Pavement Structural Evaluations, 22nd ARRB Conference, Canberra
  22. 22. Quantifying journey time variability and understanding its impact on passenger decision making, for bus travel Diego I. Silva López – Msc Transport Planning Student ts16disl@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Manuel Ojeda Cabral | Co-supervisor: John Nellthorp Third marker:Thijs Dekker Durán-Hormazábal, E., andTirachini,A. 2016. Estimation of travel time variability for cars, buses, metro and door-to-door public transport trips in Santiago, Chile. Research inTransportation Economics. 59, pp. 26-39. Hollander,Y. 2006. Direct versus indirect models for the effects of unreliability. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 40(9), 699-711 Kouwenhoven M., and Peer, S. 2016. ForecastingTravelTimeVariability in Public Transport. . Kouwenhoven, M. 2016. ForecastingTravelTime Reliability in RoadTransport A new Model forThe Netherlands. Van Oort, N. 2016. Incorporating enhanced service reliability of public transport in cost-benefit analyses. PublicTransport Transport for London (TfL) is looking for a method to quantify bus journey time variability and its impacts on passengers. Bus system Reliability is important due to benefits for users and operators (Van Oort, 2016) This methodology is necessary to asses projects where buses are involved Recent literature useful for study formulation, as Hollander (2006), and its incorporation in Cost Benefit Analysis (Van Oort, 2016) Kouwenhoven and Peer (2016) proposed a methodology which could be applied in this work Test different methodologies of quantifying bus journey time variability which consider the data available from TfL for all the formulated variables. To predict passengers’ behavior based in different types of changes in the bus system. The method must be capable to be translated into the metric used in appraisal. 2. Objectives and Scope Relevant corridors and bus routes identification With significant demand changes Before During After R O A D W O R K S Calculations of different variables 1. Introduction and Background 3. Data Available BODS survey data RTV Real Time Vehicle iBus journey time Example from Kouwenhoven and Peer (2016) of variables calculation for a bus route: 4. Data Collection Process References 5. Methodology and Expected Findings Comparing and relating reliability metrics and variables for each scenario through econometric methods (e.g. Std Dev vs Average lateness) Understanding link between reliability metrics and users’ response analysing demand in each scenario Mean Delay Std Dev Average time spent at stop Definition of what reliability metrics are more directly linked with passengers’ behavior Formulation of the final input for the appraisal of projects and policies affecting bus reliability
  23. 23. Va Vb Vd VeVc Assessing Driver Behaviour to Improve Safety on Roundabouts using Speed Profile Data of Naturalistic Study Introduction The application of roundabout junctions have been mushrooming around the world. The main aim of roundabout design is to induce driver behavioural response that might lead to speed reduction and homogenous speed profile (Silva and Seco, 2005). To understand driver’s behaviour changes dealing with roundabouts is important to ensure the effectiveness of roundabout design, especially its correlation with safety driving. Speed determines the possibility or the risk for an accident to happen and contributes to the severity of crash (Elvik et al., 2004). Naturalistic Driving Study provides wider opportunity answering several questions in driving behaviour and safety analysis such as the relationship between driver, vehicle, road and other traffic participants in ordinary situations, in conflict situations and, more rarely, in some actual crashes (Barnard et al., 2015). The current study optimises data from a naturalistic study namely UDRIVE that gathers a large scale of data on everyday driving and riding (day-to-day basis). Edward # 201082791 ✉ ts16ed@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Dr Daryl Hibberd Institute for Transport Studies Research Questions UDRIVE Project Acronym: eUropean naturalistic Driving and Riding for Infrastructure & Vehicle safety and Environment. Source: Barnard, 2015. Source: http://www.udrive.eu UDRIVE is the first large-scale European Naturalistic Driving Study on cars, trucks and powered two-wheelers. Impression of UDRIVE video data in draft version of analysis tool. The camera views collected for trucks, cars and scooters Observed Behavioural Factors Observed Speed Locations 𝑆𝐷85 = 1 𝑛 − 1 (𝑣85,𝑖 − 𝑣85)2 𝑛 𝑖=1 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛85 = 𝑣85,𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 𝑛 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑒85 = 𝑄3 𝑣85 − 𝑄1(𝑣85) Naturalistic Driving Study (NDS) is a method to approach real-life driving conditions by minimising biases that are caused by data collection devices and experiment instructions. References: Barnard, et al., 2015. The study design of UDRIVE: the naturalistic driving study across Europe for cars, trucks and scooters. [Online]. [Accessed 24 February 2017]. Available from: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12544-016-0202-z European Naturalistic Driving Study (UDRIVE). 2017. Overview. [Online]. [Accessed 24 February 2017]. Available from: http://www.udrive.eu/index.php/about-udrive/overview Silva, B.A., Seco, A. 2005. Trajectory Deflection Influence on The Performance Of Roundabouts. [Online]. [Accessed 20 April 2017]. Available from: abstracts.aetransport.org/paper /download/id/2247 Roundabout design aims: a. To reduce the speed b. To achieve homogeneity Methodology (cont.) Methodology Comparison Example of Speed Profiles at Crossbuck and Stop Sign Equipped Crossings by Age Group Source: FRA, 2014. A = Approaching Point (Va) B = Entry Point (Vb) C = Circulating Point (Vc) D = Exit Point (Vd) E = Leaving Point (Ve) Speed Profile Analysis Qualitative and comparative analysis using some statistical measures: speed variation, the mean of the 85th percentile speed, the interquartile range of the 85th percentile speed, average speed values, and variance of the sample. Limitations and Assumptions: 1. Observe two-lane roundabouts and free flowing cars that take the second exit only. 2. All drivers are assumed driving in normal driving situation (undistracted). 3. Engineering (geometric) details, pavement surface quality, on-site safety measures, weather, and land use around the roundabouts are ignored. • Focus on roundabouts in the UK, urban and rural samples. • Because of the data collected from vehicles that ran freely, the roundabouts are selected in which the sample size is high. Expected Outcomes/ the use of the study: 1. Effectiveness of the roundabouts regarding speed reduction and homogeneity. 2. Provide more inputs for engineering design process (e.g. by comparing the study results with built-geometric details). 3. Possibly informs the needs of safety measures implementation at roundabouts. 1. How does every type of road user perform their behavioural changes influenced by roundabouts? Does each type of road users perform different speed patterns on roundabouts? Has the homogeneity been achieved? 2. Does each roundabout have different performance level to induce driver behavioural response that leads to driving speed reduction? How much the differences?
  24. 24. Module: TRAN5911, ID Number: 201078336 2
  25. 25. Introduction It is widely recognized that there is a need to increase the proportion of trips on active modes in our towns and villages. West Yorkshire has set as a target for 2026 to increase trips walking 50% and double cycling (WYCA, 2016). However, in The Upper Calder Valley, this aim could seem more challenging than in other areas of the region, due to its high gradient, urban discontinuity, and longer distances to certain services among others constraints. Objectives • Analyse quantitatively and qualitatively capability to access to key services using active modes. • Investigate policies, which are more likely to promote and improve accessibility in active modes, given the previous mixed method analysis. Methods Walking and cycling in The Upper Calder Valley Literature Calderdale Council. 2016. Calderdale Transport Strategy 2016-2031. Department for transport. 2016. Cycling and walking investment Strategy. London OLG. West Yorkshire Combined Authority. 2016. West Yorkshire transport strategy 2016-2036. Full consultation Draft. Philips, I., Watling, D. and Timms, P., 2014, November. Improving estimates of capacity of populations to make journeys by walking and cycling: An individual modelling process applied to whole populations using spatial microsimulation. Leeds Fig. 1. Diagram methods and data collection CONSTRAINTS/ CHALLENGES • High gradient • Not a single conurbation • Low proportion of trips on active modes • Longer distances to certain services • Severance • Ageing population Green, T. 2009. The Upper Calder Valley, near Cornholme. STRENGTHS / OPPORTUNITIES • Significant walking and cycling network • Tradition of leisure and sports cycling • 20mph and pedestrian zones • Strong train-bicycle connectivity Policies and strategies AIMS AND TARGETS POTENTIAL POLICY INTERVENTIONS • Improve and create new active travel infrastructure • Road safety measures • Increase permeability • Awareness campaigns • Increase pedestrian zones • Widening pavements • Improvements in pedestrian crossings • User maps and wayfinding to help cyclists choose lower-hill routes • Electrical and folder bikes promotion • Bike share schemes Fig. 4. AMA indicator in The Upper Calder Valley Ouput Areas Fig. 2. Method of travel to work 2011. Source: nomis Author: Eugeni Vidal Supervisor: Ian Philips Second marker: Caroline Mullen Vidal, E. 2017. Vidal, E. 2017. So, is this target feasible for the Valley? How capable are people to walk and cycle there? How accessible are services in these modes? Which policies would help to meet the stated aim? Initial findings (from initial study area visit and existing data) Fig. 3. Distances to specific services and AMA indicator. Source: Ian Philips * Maximum distance people are physically capable of cycling without constraints ** % of the distance to key services that people could travel by active modes *** AMA indicator can also be calculated given the constraints: no bike availability and the need to escort children to school
  26. 26. Understanding Passengers’ Effective Use of Travel Time Evelio Robles Alejo | MSc(Eng) Transport Planning and Engineering | ts16era@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor | Manuel Ojeda Cabral Second Reader | Thijs Dekker Background 1 Objectives 2 Scope 3 Methodology 4 Data collection 5 References 6 There is not much evidence on showing how travellers perceive the time as effective when travelling. The effective use of travel time may also vary upon the travel mode, as different stages arise at each mode. Previous research: based on the productivity of travel time (studies frrom Hensher, Batley). - Mostly centred on the trade-offs on time savings, rather than in the effective use of travel time due to particular trip conditions. - ‘Journey time savings in rail trips led to increased productive time for business travellers, but also to a reallocation of time use’ (DfT, 2009) Further elements such as saved time, as well as access and egress times, among others, may influence the effective use of time across all modes. As the mentioned elements have not been directly assessed before, these will be included in this study. The aim of this project will be based on a cross model comparison, in order to gain a better understanding of travellers’ modal choice decisions on medium and long range trips within the UK. (I) (II) Determine which mode provides the most effective use of travel time in the different bands Identify what elements influence the time effectiveness for each of the modes under study. Centred on trips made within mainland UK (Great Britain), where air, car and rail modes can directly compete. Edinburgh Leeds London Two scenarios: medium and long range trips ‘Medium’: e.g. London-Leeds ‘Long’: e.g. London-Edinburgh Medium range scenario Travel time bands for each mode 1h30min - 2h30min 2h30min - 4h30min Long range scenario Travel time bands for each mode >2h30min 1h - 1h30min SURVEYS (I). How travellers used their time during the trip - Categories covering potential answers (II). How useful time was, as perceived by travellers - In competing modes, compared to not travelling, then determining a common reference level. (III). How useful each trip stage was Based on interactive surveys, obtained through the interception of intercity travellers at the targeted corridors. Due to the reduced number of commuters at the chosen corridors, only business (dark grey) and non-work (light grey) trips will be considered. Medium range Long range 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Comfort Reliability Speed Connectivity Schedule flexibility Access and egress time Abrantes, P.A.L. and Wardman, M.R. 2011. Meta-analysis of UK values of travel time: An update. Transportation Research Part A. 45, pp.1-17 Batley, R. 2015. The Hensher equation: derivation, interpretation and implications for practical implementation. Transportation. 42 (2), pp.257-275 Department for Transport. 2009. Productive use of rail travel time and the valuation of travel time savings for rail business travellers. [Online]. [Accessed 24 February 2017]. Accessible from: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/productive-use-of-rail-travel-time-and-the- valuation-of-travel-time-savings-for-business-travellers-final-report Kirby, H., Carreno, M. and Smyth, A. 2006. Exploring the relative costs of travelling by train and car. Final report to Virgin Trains and Fishburn Hedges. The input values will be the passengers perception of the use of travel time,being this split into time blocks (different stages of the trip,varying across all modes) and assessing to what extent each of these time blocks would be useful, in reference to a common established level (not travelling scenario). The output values will be how effective the travel time would be for the whole trip in both scenarios under comparison, as compared to not travelling case. As well, how passengers used their time will be cleared with the data collection. (III) Contrast how much time is perceived as useful time across the different modes.
  27. 27. BACKGROUND Airport is no longer seen as transportation node, but it transforms into airport city. Recent studies (Guller and Guller, 2001, Freestone, 2009, Kasarda, 2008) view airport city as a global phenomenon which emphasises on the commercial sector The agglomeration of airport city becomes an aerotropolis. This concept is a new urban form where airport city becomes the centre, and there are various of activity cluster along transport corridor. Though, there is a wide range of airport-driven development concept given by academia. However, the implementation of the concept itselft might vary among stakeholder, take for example the different view among actor in Peneda et.al’s study (2011). Due to the new phenomenon and complicated process which involves various stakeholder, there will be a tendency that the implementation of aerotropolis might differ from what academia think. RESEARCH QUESTION “How is the concept of airport city or aerotropolis perceived by planners?” OBJECTIVES To identify different planners’ perceptions about the concept of airport city or aerotropolis CASE STUDY Soekarno-Hatta airport is located in Banten province in Indonesia. Currently, the Soekarno-Hatta airport is planned to be an aerotropolis area with a land area of 4345 Ha. The development aims to be the economic catalyst for the surrounding area and increase its competitiveness among ASEAN airports. AEROTROPOLIS IN INDONESIA Fahdiana Liestya Pratiwi (Msc Transport Planning) ts16flp@leeds.ac.uk Paul Timms (Supervisor) | David Milne (2nd Reader) METHODOLOGY Main References Freestone, R. (2017). Planning, Sustainability and Airport-Led Urban Development. Güller, M. and Güller, M. (2003). From airport to airport city. 1st ed. Barcelona: Ed. G. Gilli. Kasarda, J. D. 2008. The Evolution of Airport Cities and the Aerotropolis . Airport Cities: The Evolution Peneda, m. J. A., V. D. Reis and M. D. M. R. Macario. 2011. Critical Factors for Development of Airport Cities. Transportation Research Record, To analyse the concept of airport city or aerotropolis and its integration with land use-transport planning within planning documents (airport master plan, national economic master plan, regional master plan) Document review of various master plans (airport master plan, regional master plan, national master plan) (May) Literature review of Airport City and Aerotropolis concept (April – Early May) Interview with key stakeholders: airport operator, land use planner, transport planner (Late May – June)
  28. 28. C Background Research Questions Route Map(Partial) Methodology Objectives References Preliminary Comparison Delivered Schemes (Note: Boxes in white: data in 2015; Boxes in blue: data in 2016; Boxes in yellow: Downward trend in running time) ➢Bus Lane Widening (5): Re-align road marking to accommodate widening of bus lane ➢Yellow Box Marking (3): Criss-cross yellow lines painted on the road ➢Keep Clear Marking (2): Do not block that part of the carriageway indicated. ➢Review Parking (1): Part-time parking is potentially obstructing the bus route during peak hours ➢Centerline (3): Moving the road centerline to assist traffic pass bus stops or curbside obstructions. ➢Signage and Enforcement (1): Install signage to prevent general traffic entering, enforce bus lane facility. ➢Signage and Line Marking (1): Move the locations of part-time on-street loading bays to allow space for vehicles to maneuver around safely. ➢Signal Modification- SCOOT (1): Converting existing signal system to Split Cycle Offset Optimizing Technique (SCOOT). • To quantify the benefits of all 17 bus priority interventions implemented on London bus Route 3 and compare them with their predicted values. • To assess the reliability of London bus Route 3 after the bus priority interventions implemented. • To compare cost of schemes with effectiveness and carry out an Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA). • To identify potential problems and reasons lead to the difference between predicted and actual benefits, propose measures and explore more efficiency schemes. In 2015, based on a review of the existing evidence, a guide to the effectiveness of 26 different types of bus priority interventions produced by TfL. TfL applied this guide to forecast the effectiveness of various schemes at pinch-points on the network of London, in terms of the savings in expected journey times, variety and delays. A majority of bus priority schemes have completed since December 2016, and actual monitoring data collected by Tfl is available now. The target route is London Bus Route 3. According to the bus service usage report published by TfL, the usage of Route 3 has experienced declining for three consecutive years since 2013, it is significant to take measures to make Route 3 more attractive. Since 2015, 17 bus priority schemes have been implemented along side the bus route to improve effectiveness and reliability. Social influence, how many passengers and inhabitants can benefit from these schemes? How much? Will the increased/improved reliability of Route 3 be realized by passengers? How could Route 3 attract passengers who gave it up previously? What types of factors could influence the service reliability? How to estimate the effects of different factors on service reliability? Data Analysis and Assess the Scheme Benefits Running Time Analysis-Individual trip times, scheduled VS observed averages, daily averages in March in 2015 and 2016 respectively Evidence of declining bus market Implement timescale and cost of each scheme Background factors (such as accidents, events, activities and road works) Identify Indicators and Evaluate the Reliability of Route 3 ➢ Punctuality Index Based on Route (PIR): 𝑃𝐼𝑅 𝐿 = 𝑃 𝑡 𝑅𝑢𝑛 ∈ [𝑡 𝑠𝑐ℎ + 𝛿1, 𝑡 𝑠𝑐ℎ + 𝛿2] = 𝑃{𝑡 𝑅𝑢𝑛 − 𝑡 𝑠𝑐ℎ ∈ [𝛿1, 𝛿2]} ➢ Deviation Index Based on Stops (DIS): 𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑠 = 𝑃 𝐻𝑠 − 𝐻0 ∈ 𝜃1, 𝜃2 Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of Bus Priority Schemes An Assessment of 17 Bus Priority Schemes Implemented on London Bus Route 3, What Lessons Can Be Learned? Feiyang Zhang MSc-Transport Planning & Engineering ts16fz@leeds.ac.uk Supervisor: Jeremy Shires Second Reader: Dan Johnson The cost of all the schemes VS the benefit obtained from schemes, will the desired results be achieved? Will the change attract more passengers and bring more profits? Chen, X., Yu. L., Zhang, Y. and Guo, J. 2009. Analyzing Urban Bus Service Reliability at the Stop, Route, and Network Levels. Transportation Research Part A. 43 (2009), pp.722-734. Lin, J., Wang, P. and Barnum. D. 2008. A Quality Control Framework for Bus Schedule Reliability. Transportation Research Part E. 44 (2008), pp.1086-1098. Qu, X., Oh, E., Weng, J. and Jin, S. 2013. Bus Travel Time Reliability Analysis: A Case Study. Transport. 167 (TR3), pp.178-184. Sorratini, J., Liu, R. and Sinha, S. 2008. Assessing Bus Transport Reliability Using Micro-Simulation. Transportation Planning and Technology. 31 (3), pp.303-324. Transportation Benefit-Cost Analysis. 2017. Public Transport Case Studies. [Online]. [Accessed April 2017]. Available from: https://sites.google.com/site/benefitcostanalysis/case-studies/public-transport Benefits, Magnitude and Value:Total time cost saving, Operating cost saving, Bus device saving, Emissions-related saving Cost: The cost of implementing the schemes, Maintenance and operation cost Analysis and Criterions: Benefits / Cost Ratio Passenger Survey Collect feedback, experience and opinions from passengers, how do they response to the improvement

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