Ahmed's thesis june 2017 final

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY ON THE LIVELIHOODS
OF AGRO-PASTORALIST AND THEIR ADAPTATION STRATEGIES IN JIGJIGA
DISTRICT, SOMALI REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA
M.Sc. THESIS
AHMED MOHAMUD MOHAMED
HAWASSA UNIVERSITY, WONDO GENET COLLEGE OF FORESTRY AND
NATURAL RESOURCES, WONDO GENET, ETHIOPIA
JUNE, 2017

DISTRICT, SOMALI REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA
M.Sc. THESIS
AHMED MOHAMUD MOHAMED
SUBMITED TO
SCHOOL OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES, WONDO
GENET COLLEGE OF FORESTRY AND NATURAL RESOURCES, GRADUATE
STUDIES, HAWASSA UNIVERSTY, WONDO GENET, ETHIOPIA
IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT
JUNE, 2017

I
APPROVAL SHEET-I
This is to certify that the thesis entitled ‘‘The Impact of Climate Change and Variability
on the Livelihoods of Agro-pastoralist and their Adaptation Strategies in Jigjiga
District, Somali Regional state, Ethiopia’’ is submitted in partial fulfilment of the
requirements for the degree of Master of Science with specialization in Climate Change and
Development, Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resource, and is a record of
original research carried out by Ahmed Mohamud, Id No MSc/CcDe/R002/08, under my
supervision, and no part of the thesis has been submitted for any other degree or diploma.
The assistance and help received during the courses of this investigation have been duly
acknowledged. Therefore, I recommend that it be can accepted as fulfilling the thesis
requirement.
1. ________________________________ _________________ _______________
Name of major advisor Signature Date
2. _______________________________ _________________ _____________
Coordinator, Graduate Program Signature Date

II
APPROVAL SHEET-II
We, the undersigned, members of the Board of examiners of the final open defence by
Ahmed Mohamud have read and evaluated his thesis entitled „„The Impact of Climate
Change and Variability on the Livelihoods of Agro-pastoralist and their Adaptation
Strategies in Jigjiga District, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia’’ and examined the
candidate. This is therefore to certify that the thesis has been accepted in partial fulfilment of
the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Climate Change and Development.
1. ________________________________ _________________ _______________
Name of the Chairperson Signature Date
2. _______________________________ _________________ _____________
Name of Major Advisor Signature Date
3. _______________________________ _________________ _____________
Name of Internal Examiner Signature Date
4. _______________________________ _________________ _____________
Name of External Examiner Signature Date

III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Firstly, All Praise is due to Allah, the cherisher and the sustainer of the world, who bestowed
on me the divine guidance, enough courage, and patience to complete my thesis work. Had it
not been for His gracious assistance, it would have been impossible to overcome the
challenges of the MSc rigorous work, and without His willingness and mercy I would have
not reached this stage.
Secondly, I would like to express, but cannot get a word to express my deepest admiration to
my indefatigable supervisor Dr. Teshale W/Amanuel for his Open face, willingness
supervision, guidance, unlimited support, critical review and endless encouragement in all the
way to develop and accomplish this thesis throughout the year.
Thirdly, the administration of sampled kebeles, respected clan leaders, elders and interviewee
are worth thankful for their time, kind facilitation of survey process and necessary
information for this research work. My friends Ayanle Igge, Abdurahman Makhtal, Kedar
Yusuf and Ahmed Omar were really appreciated for their contribution and assistance for data
enumeration.
Fourthly, I would also like to thanks the staff of IRC and particular to Mohamed Abdulkerim
Omer, the IRC field coordinator at Jigjiga Branch for his logistic support during data
collection.
Finally, I wish to extend my heartfelt thanks to Jigjiga University for providing me the
opportunity to extend my education and study M.Sc in Climate change and Development at
Wondogenet College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University.

IV
DECLARATION
I, Ahmed Mohamud, hereby declare that this thesis entitled „„The Impact of Climate
Change and Variability on the livelihoods of Agro pastoralist and their Adaptation
strategies in Jigjiga District, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia’’ submitted for the partial
fulfilment of the requirements for the Masters of Science in Climate Change and
Development, is the original work done by me under the supervision of Teshale W/Amanual
(PhD) and this thesis has not been published or submitted elsewhere for the requirement of a
degree program to the best of my knowledge and belief. All materials or ideas of other
authors used in this thesis have been duly acknowledged and references are listed at the end
of the main text.
Name: Ahmed Mohamud
Signature: _________________________________________
Date: _____________________________________________

V
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
BoFED Bureau of Finance and Economic Development
CRV Central Rift Valley
CSA Central Statistical Agency
CV Coefficient of variation
DPPA Disaster prevention and Preparedness Agency
ERA Ethiopian Roads Authority
ESRS Ethiopian Somali Regional State
FGD Focused Group Discussion
GHG Green House Gases
ICRA International Center for Development Oriented Research in Agriculture
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
ISDR International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
JASO July, August, September and October
KII Key Informant Interview
LCRDB Livestock, Crop and Rural Development Bureau
MAM March, April, and May
NMA National Meteorological Agency
PCI Precipitation Concentration Index
SCUK Save the Children UK
SPSS Statistical Package for Social Studies
SRA Standardized Rainfall Anomaly
UNDP United Nation Development Program
UNFCCC United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change

VI
Table of Content
Contents Page
APPROVAL SHEET-I .............................................................................................................. I
APPROVAL SHEET-II............................................................................................................II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.......................................................................................................III
DECLARATION.....................................................................................................................IV
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS .................................................................V
LIST OF TABLES...................................................................................................................IX
LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................X
LIST OF APPENDICES..........................................................................................................XI
ABSTRACT........................................................................................................................... XII
1. INTODUCTION....................................................................................................................1
1.1. Background .....................................................................................................................1
1.2. Statement of the Problem................................................................................................3
1.3. Objectives of the Study ...................................................................................................4
1.3.1. General objective......................................................................................................4
1.3.2. Specific objectives....................................................................................................4
2. Analyse variability and trend of rainfall and temperature of the study area over the last
36 years...............................................................................................................................5
1.4. Research Questions .........................................................................................................5
1.5. Significance of the Study ................................................................................................5
1.6. Scope and Limitations.....................................................................................................6
2. REVIEW OF LITERATURES..............................................................................................8

VII
2.1. Definition and Concepts..................................................................................................8
2.2. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Livelihoods.........................................10
2.2.1. Climate Change and Variability Impact on Crop production.................................10
2.2.2. Climate Change Impact on Rangeland and Livestock Production.........................12
2.3. Climate Change in Ethiopia ..........................................................................................13
2.4. Agro-pastoral Livelihood in Ethiopia ...........................................................................14
2.5. Adaptation Strategies ....................................................................................................15
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.........................................................................................17
3.1. Description of the Study Area.......................................................................................17
3.1.1. Geographic Location ..............................................................................................17
3.1.2. Climate....................................................................................................................18
3.1.3. Socio economic activities.......................................................................................18
3.1.4. Population...............................................................................................................18
3.2. Sampling Techniques and Sample Size ........................................................................19
3.3. Data Collection Methods...............................................................................................20
3.3.1. Household survey ...................................................................................................20
3.3.2. Key informant interviews .......................................................................................21
3.3.3. Focus group discussions.........................................................................................21
3.3.4. Field observations...................................................................................................22
3.4 Methods of Data analysis...............................................................................................22
3.4.1. Descriptive Statistics ..............................................................................................22
3.4.2. Meteorological Data Analysis ................................................................................23
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION..........................................................................................26

VIII
4.1. Demographic and Socio-Economic Characteristic of Respondents..............................26
4.2. Local Peoples‟ Perception to Climate Change and Variability.....................................35
4.2.1. Perception to Rainfall Variability and Trend .........................................................36
4.2.2. Perception to Temperature Variability and Trend..................................................39
4.2.3. Awareness on the Causes of Climate Change and Variability ...............................41
4.3. Temperature and Rainfall Variability and Trends Based on Meteorological Data.......43
4.3.1. Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Trends ...........................................43
4.3.2. Annual Temperature Variability and Trends..........................................................49
4.4. Impact of the Climate Change and Variability on Agro-pastoralists in Jigjiga District51
4.4.1. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Crop production...........................51
4.4.2. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Livestock Production...................54
4.5. Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Variability in Jigjiga District ...............57
4.5.1. Crop-based Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Variability..................57
4.5.2. Livestock-based Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Variability ..........59
4.5.3. Policy Driven Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Variability ..............61
4.5.4. Barriers to Adaptation Strategies............................................................................66
5. Conclusion and Recommendations......................................................................................69
5.1. Conclusion.....................................................................................................................69
5.2. Recommendations.........................................................................................................70
REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................73
APPENDICES .........................................................................................................................82

IX
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Sample Kebeles by number of total households and sample size .............................20
Table 2: Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of respondents in Jigjiga District
(continuous variables)..............................................................................................................27
Table 3: Demographic characteristics of respondents in Jigjiga District (dummy variables) .28
Table 4: Respondent‟s occupation, main income sources and farming types .........................30
Table 5: Agro-pastoralists‟ Access to Climate information ....................................................31
Table 6: Major feed sources, Pastureland ownership and Trend of pastureland availability ..32
Table 7: Constraints to crop and livestock production in Jigjiga District................................33
Table 8: Major crops cultivated in the study area....................................................................34
Table 9: Agro-pastoralists perceptions to existence and direction of changes in overall climate
over the past 20 years in Jigjiga District..................................................................................35
Table 10: Agro-pastoralists perceptions to existence and direction of changes of rainfall over
the past 20 years in Jigjiga District..........................................................................................37
Table 11: Agro-pastoralists perceptions to existence and direction of changes of temperature
Table 12: Perception of the respondents on awareness and cause of climate change and
variability.................................................................................................................................42
Table 13: Descriptive statistics of rainfall at Jigjiga station (1980- 2015)..............................45
Table 14: Impact of climate change and variability on crop production .................................52
Table 15: Impact of climate change and variability on livestock production..........................54
Table 16: Crop-based adaptation strategies to climate change................................................58
Table 17: Livestock-based adaptation strategies to climate change by respondents...............59
Table 18: policy driven-based adaptation strategies of respondents .......................................62

X
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Map of the Study Area .............................................................................................17
Figure 2: Frequency of drought occurrence in Jigjiga District................................................38
Figure 3: Mean monthly rainfall distribution of 36 years (1986-2015) of Jigjiga district.......44
Figure 4: Standardized anomaly of total annual Rain Fall at Jigjiga (1980 - 2015)................46
Figure 5: Standardized anomaly of (a) Karan (JASO) and (b) Dira‟a (MAM) R.F at Jigjiga
(1980 - 2015)............................................................................................................................47
Figure 6: Annual and seasonal rainfall trend and variability at Jigjiga (1980-2015) ..............48
Figure 7: Annual maximum temperature variability and trend at Jigjiga (1980-2015)...........49
Figure 8: Annual minimum temperature variability and trend at Jigjiga (1980-2015)............50
Figure 9: The most vulnerable household members to climate change and variability among
the communities.......................................................................................................................56
Figure 10: Barriers to adaptation strategies .............................................................................66

XI
LIST OF APPENDICES
Appendix 1: household survey questionnaire:.........................................................................82
Appendix 2: checklist for focus group discussion ...................................................................87
Appendix 3: checklist for key informant interviews (elders, model farmers, pa leaders etc.) 88
Appendix 4: checklist for key informant interviews (agriculture and rural development office
experts).....................................................................................................................................89
Appendix 5: Conversion factors used to calculate Tropical Livestock Unit ...........................90
Appendix 6: Demographic characteristics of respondents.......................................................91
Appendix 7: Agro-pastoralists perceptions of existence and direction of changes in overall
climate over the past 20 years in Jigjiga Woreda ....................................................................91
Appendix 8: Agro-pastoralists perceptions of existence and direction of changes of rainfall
Appendix 9: Agro-pastoralists perceptions of existence and direction of changes of
temperature over the past 20 years in Jigjiga District..............................................................94
Appendix 10: Perceived level of people awareness and cause of CCV ..................................95
Appendix 11: Impact of climate variability on crop production.............................................95
Appendix 12: Impact of climate variability on Livestock production.....................................96
Appendix 13: Crop-based adaptation strategies of respondents for perceived changes..........96
Appendix 14: Livestock-based adaptation strategies of respondents for perceived changes ..96
Appendix 15: Policy driven-based adaptation strategies of respondents for perceived changes
..................................................................................................................................................96

XII
DISTRICT, FAFAN ZONE, SOMALI REGIONAL STATE, ETHIOPIA
Ahmed Mohamud (Email: Ahmedgurey398@gmail.com)
ABSTRACT
Agro-pastoral communities in the arid and semi-arid environments of Ethiopia are
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability. Nevertheless, they have rich
experiences of how to survive on such environmental pressures and developed various forms
of adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study is aimed to focus on the impact of climate
change and variability on the livelihood of agro-pastoralist, adaptation strategies and also
their perception, in Jigjiga District. The study used qualitative data collected from 123
households via household survey. Also FGDs and KII were utilized to triangulate and
substantiate the findings from household survey. Besides, daily rainfall and temperature data
of the period of 1980-2015 were obtained from NMA of Ethiopia. Data were analysed by
descriptive statistics using SPSS. One-way ANOVA and Chi-square tests were employed to
test the significance of continuous and categorical variables, respectively. The result
indicated that 93.5% of the interviewed households perceived climate change and variability
with a declining rainfall and increasing temperature trend. The analysis of coefficient of
variation revealed that Dira’ (Diraac) rainfall has shown high inter-annual variability than
Karan (Karan) and annual with a CV of 34%. The result indicated that there is significant
increment of maximum temperature and slight decline of minimum temperature and this
observed changes in rainfall and temperature have already caused impacts on their
traditional farming systems and related livelihoods. The result also revealed that the majority
of the agro pastoralists, 92.68%, 91.06% and 64.23%, practiced crop, livestock and policy
based adaptation strategies respectively. Nevertheless, the adaptation strategies are not
practiced in full capacity; specifically knowledge gap and availability of improved seeds are
the constraints in this regard. Therefore, it is important to provide training and improved
seeds, which are drought tolerant as well early maturing crops. Also intervention is needed to
address water shortage and up scaling of soil and water conservation techniques to conserve
soil and water at a watershed level. The study also calls for further studies for in-depth
understanding of the impact of climate change on the spread of livestock diseases, pests and
diseases of crops, and human diseases in the study area.
Keywords: Agro-pastoralists, Climate Change, Climate Variability, Livelihoods, Adaptation
strategies

1
1. INTODUCTION
1.1. Background
There is now increased consensus within the scientific community that climate change is
reality and expected to worsen through recurrent extreme events such as floods or droughts in
the next decades (IPCC, 2001; IPCC, 2013). During the last century, the average global
temperature rose by 0.74°C which is the largest and fastest warming trend in the history and
this is particularly due to the increase of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere (IPCC,
2013). Consequently, the world is facing greater weather extreme events such as heat waves,
cyclones, tsunamis, droughts and floods (IPCC, 2007; Brooks, 2012, Zampaligre et al.,
2014). These phenomena are negatively affecting the African farmers‟ livelihoods, and
particularly marginalized groups in the poorest regions, even though they are least
responsible for these changes (Thornton et al,. 2006; UNDP, 2007, Gbetibouo, 2009). Many
African countries are vulnerable to climate change because their economies largely depend
on climate-sensitive agricultural production system (Tadesse, 2000).This is particularly true
in low-income countries like Ethiopia where adaptive capacity is low.
Ethiopia's history is associated, more often than not, with major natural and man-made
disasters that have been affecting the population from time to time. Recurrent drought,
famine and, recently, floods are the main problems that affect millions of people in the
country. While the causes of most disasters are climate related, the deterioration of the natural
environment due to uncontrolled human activity and poverty has further exacerbated the
situation (NMA, 2007). Ethiopia‟s farmers heavily depend on rain-fed agriculture, which is
affected by the impacts of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC, 2007) concluded that increased frequency of heat stress, droughts and floods are
negatively affecting crop yields and livestock.

2
Adaptation is widely recognized as a vital component of any policy response to climate
change. Studies show that without adaptation, climate change is generally detrimental to the
entire livelihood system, but with adaptation, vulnerability can largely be reduced (Smith
1996; Smit and Skinner, 2002). „The degree to which an agricultural system is affected by
climate change depends on its adaptive capacity, which is the ability of a system to adjust to
climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage,
take advantage of opportunities or cope with the consequences‟ (IPCC, 2001). Thus, the
adaptive capacity of a system or society describes its ability to modify its characteristics or
behaviour so as to cope better with changes in external conditions.
Ethiopia is endowed with varying agro-ecology that supports different forms of livelihood
strategies. The dry lands located in the east, southeast, northeast, south and southwest
constitute more than 60% of the country‟s land mass. These areas are home to millions of
pastoralists and agro-pastoralists who make their living primarily out of livestock keeping
(Mahoo et al, 2013). For example, pastoralists represent approximately 37% (26.6 million) of
the national population that include an estimated 12.24 million (17%) mobile pastoralists and
14.4 million (20%) agro-pastoralists.
Agro-pastoral communities who reside in the arid and semi-arid environments of Ethiopia are
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability specifically to the recurrent
drought, floods and conflicts. From their long years of rich experiences of how to survive on
such environmental pressures, agro-pastoralists have also developed various forms of
adaptation as well as coping strategies to the impacts of climate change and variability
(Bamlaku et al., 2015).

3
1.2. Statement of the Problem
Somali Regional State (SRS) is one of the predominantly pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in
Ethiopia (SCUK and DPPA, 2008). The production system of the region is divided into three
categories: Pure pastoralism, livestock-based mixed farming and crop-based agro-
pastoralism. About 80% of the population in the region depends on the first two production
systems while the remaining 20% depends on crop-based livestock production (ERA, 2003).
Both farming and agro-pastoral groups keep some livestock but farmers‟ herds do not migrate
and are sometimes hand-fed, only migrating with other groups if there is a severe drought
(SCUK and DPPA, 2008)
In Ethiopian Somali Region, rainfall is unevenly distributed. The western and northern parts
of the region receive an average annual rainfall ranging between 600 to 650 mm while, on the
other hand, the south-eastern part of the region receives less than 200 mm of rainfall
annually. In recent decades, the region has experienced a shortage of rainfall and there has
been a total absence of rainfall for one to two years occurring every eight to ten years
(LCRDB, 2009). The Ethiopian government believes that the global warming has contributed
a lot to the recent shocks and rain failures.
So far, several studies were conducted in Ethiopia concerning adaptation to climate change
and variability, but they tend to focus in the Nile Basin of the country. Tadesse et al. (2009),
Deressa et al. (2011) and Di Falco et al. (2011) studied perception and adaptation process in
the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. These studies identified factors that affect perception, adaptation
decisions, and also identified the main barriers to adaptation. On the other hand, Bryan et al.
(2009) compared the adaptation process by farmers in Ethiopia with South African farmers.
Also Tazeze et al (2012) studied climate change adaptation strategy by smallholder farmers
in Babile district, east Hararghe Zone. Tessema et al (2013) studied the process of adaptation

4
to climate change by smallholder farmer in east Hararghe zone of Oromia. They were also
able to identify factors influencing farmers‟ choice of adaptation to climate change.
However, these studies hardly analysed the impact of climate change on livelihoods.
Moreover, neither of them had been conducted in Jigjiga to examine the impact of climate
change and variability on livelihoods of agro-pastoralists and what adaptation strategies they
practice to minimize the impacts.
Study on climate change impact on the livelihood, perceptions, local adaptation strategies at
the household and community levels, can provide the basis for understanding the
vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the local people. Also it contributes to the development
of national, regional and local level adaptation policy. Therefore, this study is aimed to fill
that gap by examining the impact of climate change and variability on the livelihood of agro-
pastoralists and their adaptation strategies.
1.3. Objectives of the Study
1.3.1. General objective
The general objective of this study was to assess how climate change and variability affected
the livelihood of agro-pastoralists and identify the most commonly used climate change
adaptation strategies in Jigjiga District of Somali Regional State.
1.3.2. Specific objectives
The specific objectives of the study were to:
1. Assess local people‟s perception towards variability in temperature and rainfall
pattern over decades

5
2. Analyse variability and trend of rainfall and temperature of the study area over the last 36
years
3. Identify how climate change and variability affected the livelihood of agro-pastoralists
(crop and livestock production) in the study area and
4. Identify the adaptation strategies practiced by agro-pastoralists to minimize the impact of
climate change and variability in the study area.
1.4. Research Questions
The study attempts to address the following research questions:
 How do the agro-pastoralists perceive climate change and climate variability?
 What climate change and variability induced impacts are experienced by the agro-
pastoralists?
 What are the most commonly used adaptation strategies to climate change and
variability by agro-pastoral households‟ in the study area?
1.5. Significance of the Study
Identifying the impact of Climate change and variability on the livelihood of agro-pastoralists
and the adaptation strategies practiced among set of option would assist policy makers in
designing programs and formulation of policies, scheming appropriate strategies and practical
steps to reduce climate variability impacts and promote sustainable development in agro-
pastoral communities. Also the local people‟s perception and awareness about this climate
change and variability were identified, since awareness about the climate change is seen as an
entry point to strengthen the resilience of local people to climate change and variability.

6
The developmental practitioners like NGOs and researchers working on climate change
related aspects; can use the result of this study, as a benchmark or supplementary information
for agro-pastoral development and livelihood intervention. Moreover, the results of the study
can serve as source of information to the various efforts directed to reduce the severe impact
of climate change and variability on the livelihood of agro-pastoralists. In addition, it will be
used as a reference material for similar and related studies concerning impact of climate
change and variability on the livelihood and adaptation strategies against climate
change/variability impacts.
1.6. Scope and Limitations
The study focused on agro-pastoralists in Jigjiga District and tried to identify how climate
change and variability affected their livelihood and the different adaptation strategies
employed by agro-pastoralists to minimize climate change and variability induced hazards.
Also the study tried to assess the perception of the communities towards the climate
variability since perception strongly affects how farmers deal with climate induced risks and
opportunities.
It is the nature of any type of research to have some limitations due to unavoidable or
unforeseen factors. Accordingly, this study focused only on agro-pastoral households in
Jigjiga District of the SRS of Ethiopia that are considered to be ideal representatives of the
agro-pastoral communities but not included nomadic pastoralists. Also, it is fair to say that
the study would be much better if it is included more kebeles and samples in order to reveal
more precise information about impact of climate change and variability on the livelihood of
agro-pastoralists and identify adaptation strategies against climate change and variability. The
other limitation is that this study used only one time survey data and lacks time series data.
This is mainly due to the time, logistic, financial and safety constraints in the study area.

7
Even if the study is restricted in terms of its area coverage and time series its findings can be
used as a springboard for more detailed and area specific studies.

8
2. REVIEW OF LITERATURES
2.1. Definition and Concepts
Climate: According to Ramamasy et al (2007) climate is statistical information, a synthesis
of weather variation focusing on a specific area for a specified interval; it is usually based on
the weather in one locality averaged for at least 30 years.
Weather: It is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere and its short-term (from hours to a few
weeks) variations such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, visibility or wind
(Ramamasy et al., 2007).
Climate change: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate
change as any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of
human activity (IPCC 2007). There are natural as well as human induced factors that have the
potential to change the climate.
Climatic variability: According to IPCC (2013), climate variability refers to variations in
the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes,
etc.) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather
events. In essence, climate variability looks at changes that occur within smaller time frames,
such as a month, a season or a year, and climate change considers changes that occur over a
longer period of time, typically over decades or longer. A key difference between climate
variability and change is in persistence of "anomalous” conditions. Climate variability is the
way climate fluctuates yearly above or below a long-term average value. Climate change is
long-term continuous change (increase or decrease) to average weather conditions or the
range of weather.

9
Impacts: Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health, ecosystems,
economies, societies, cultures, services, and infrastructure due to the interaction of climate
changes or hazardous climate events occurring within a specific time period and the
vulnerability of an exposed society or system (IPCC, 2014). Impacts are also referred to as
consequences and outcomes. The impacts of climate change on geophysical systems,
including floods, droughts, and sea level rise, are a subset of impacts called physical impacts.
In this study, the term impact is used primarily to refer to the effects of extreme weather and
climate events and of climate change on livelihoods of agro-pastoralists.
Livelihood: Livelihood comprises of the capabilities, assets and activities required for a
means of living. A livelihood approach give more emphasis to link the assets of natural
resources, land, man power and others with the different activities that help to generate
income for survival (Ellis, 2000).
Drought: In general, drought is defined as a temporary reduction in moisture availability
significantly below the normal for a specified period (Ramamasy et al., 2007). The deficiency
of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually a season or more is also called
drought. Therefore, drought is considered as unbalance between precipitation and evapo-
transpiration in a particular area in a period. It is a phenomenon of climate change which has
great effect. It occurs almost everywhere but its features are different between regions.
Adaptation: According to IPCC (2014), adaptation means the adjustments in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which
moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Adaptation in narrow sense refers only
to those measures that are taken at the farm level. However, adaptation in a wider sense,
involves choices at national and international level as well as local one.

10
2.2. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Livelihoods
Livelihoods are understood as the ensemble or opportunity set of capabilities, assets, and
activities that are required to make a living (Ellis et al., 2003). They depend on access to
natural, human, physical, financial, social, and cultural capital (assets); the social relations
people draw on to combine, transform, and expand their assets; and the ways people deploy
and enhance their capabilities to act and make lives meaningful (Bebbington, 1999).
Livelihoods are dynamic and people adapt and change their livelihoods with internal and
external stressors. Ultimately, successful livelihoods transform assets into income, dignity,
and agency, to improve living conditions, a prerequisite for poverty alleviation (Sen, 1981).
Livelihoods are universal. Poor and rich people both pursue livelihoods to make a living.
However, the adverse impacts of weather events and climate increasingly threaten and erode
basic needs, capabilities, and rights, particularly among poor and marginalized people, in turn
reshaping their livelihoods (Quinn et al., 2011). Some livelihoods are directly climate
sensitive, such as rain-fed smallholder agriculture, seasonal employment in agriculture (e.g.,
tea, coffee, and sugar), fishing, pastoralism, and tourism. Climate change also affects
households dependent on informal livelihoods or wage labor in poor urban settlements,
directly through unsafe settlement structures or indirectly through rises in food prices or
migration (Olsson et al, 2014).
2.2.1. Climate Change and Variability Impact on Crop production
The climate change can have both positive and negative effects depending on the location
(IPCC, 2007). Global warming will probably have a negative impact on tropical regions and
any other areas where high temperature or inadequate rain often limits crop productivity.
Regions where cold temperatures are the primary factor limiting crop production will

11
probably benefit most from warming (Reddy and Hodges, 2000). The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in its Fourth Assessment Report: “At lower latitudes,
especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease
for even small local temperature increases (1 to 2°C), which would increase the risk of
hunger” (IPCC 2007). Climate change is now affecting crop productivity and the ability of
farmers to harvest and process agricultural produce, with direct impacts on the nearly 70% of
people in developing countries living in rural areas where agriculture is the main livelihood
(Vermeulen, Campbell, & Ingram, 2012 cited in Mohammed et al,.2014).
The impacts of mean temperature increase will be experienced differently, depending on
location (Leff, Ramankutty and Foley, 2004 cited in Edame et al, 2011). For example,
moderate warming (increases of 1 to 3 ºC in mean temperature) is expected to benefit crop
and pasture yields in temperate regions, while in tropical and seasonally dry regions, it is
likely to have negative impacts, particularly for cereal crops. Warming of more than 3 ºC is
expected to have negative effects on production in all regions (IPCC, 2007).
Crop production in Ethiopia is affected by failure of rains or occurrence of successive dry
spells during the growing season. Food shortages resulting from adverse weather conditions
are not new in Ethiopia. However, food shortages have increased in severity, with frequent
shortages in recent years. Deressa et al. (2008) analyzed the vulnerability of Ethiopian
farmers to climate change by generating vulnerability indices and comparing these indices
across the seven regions of Ethiopia. The degree of vulnerability varies between the different
regions based on wealth, technology, availability of infrastructure and institutions, potential
for irrigation, and literacy rate. In general, vulnerability to climate change in Ethiopia is
highly related to poverty. Integrated rural development initiatives aimed at reducing poverty
can play a role in increasing adaptive capacity to climate change

12
2.2.2. Climate Change Impact on Rangeland and Livestock Production
Livestock and climate change have a close relationship (Iqubal, 2013). The spatial
distribution and availability of pasture and water are highly dependent on the pattern and
availability of rainfall (Aklilu et al., 2013). Changes in the patterns of rainfall and ranges of
temperature affect feed availability, grazing ranges, feed quality, weed, pest and disease
incidence (Coffey, 2008). Thus, changes in climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation
and the frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts directly affected livestock
yields (Adams et al., 1998). According to Coffey (2008), livestock production is doubly
impacted by climate change. Similarly, Adams et al. (1998) also reported that livestock can
be affected in two ways by climate change: the quality and amount of forage from grasslands
may be affected and there may be direct effects on livestock due to higher temperatures. The
harsh effect of climate change is expected to have maximum impact on vulnerable pastoral
communities engaged in extensive livestock production systems in dry-lands (Oseni and
Bebe, 2010).
According to Yilma et al. (2009), the four major effects of climate change on livestock
production in Borana pastoralists include feed shortage, water shortage, reduced productivity,
and decreased mature weight and/or longer time to reach mature weight. Again, he revealed
that heavy infestation of invasive species due to climate change has reduced the availability
of herbaceous species and hence resulted in a critical shortage of feed. On the same way,
Stark et al. (2011) reported that in some regions, invasive species linked by pastoralists to
both restrictions on bush burning and climate change are severely reducing or eliminating
viable grazing areas.

13
2.3. Climate Change in Ethiopia
Ethiopia is extremely vulnerable to drought and other natural disasters such as floods, heavy
rains, frost and heat waves (NMA 2007). Large parts of Ethiopia are dry, sub-humid, semi-
arid and arid. The main climate hazards in Ethiopia are associated with droughts and floods.
The most prominent trend has been a tendency towards lower rainfall during the main
growing seasons (March–May and December–February). A decline of 15% has been
associated with anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming (Brown and Funk 2008). While floods
have historically never been a major economic hazard in Ethiopia, in recent years there have
been significant socio-economic disruption due to flooding, e.g. 1997 and 2006 (Tarhule
2007, Conway et al. 2009).
The country has experienced both warm and cool years over the last 55 years. However,
recent years have been the warmest compared to the earlier years (NMA 2007). Over the last
decades, the temperature in Ethiopia increased at about 0.2° C per decade. The increase in
minimum temperatures is more pronounced with roughly 0.4° C per decade (Brohan et al.
2006). Precipitation, on the other hand, remained fairly stable over the last 50 years when
averaged over the country. However, the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation is
high, thus large-scale trends do not necessarily reflect local conditions (Schneider et al. 2008;
Conway et al., 009). Years like 1952, 1959, 1965, 1972, 1973, 1978, 1984, 1991, 1994, 1999
and 2002 were dry while 1958, 1961, 1964, 1967, 1968, 1977, 1993, 1996, 1998 and 2006
were wet (NMA 2007). Studies by NMA have shown that there is a link between El Niño and
La Niña phenomena and Ethiopian rainfall (NMA 2007).
The future changes in precipitation and temperature is also projected by various global
climate models. Most of the global climate models project an increase in precipitation in both
the dry and wet seasons. Studies with more detailed regional climate models, however,

14
indicate that the expected precipitation change is uncertain (NMA 2008, Schneider et al.
2008). The temperature will very likely continue to increase for the next few decades with the
rate of change as observed (NMA 2008, Brohan et al. 2006). The projected increases in the
inter-annual variability of precipitation in combination with the warming will likely lead to
increases in the occurrence of droughts. Furthermore, heavy rains and floods are projected to
increase as well (Brohan et al. 2006, NMA 2008, Schneider et al. 2008,). Decreases in
rainfall amount will be exacerbated by higher evaporation rates associated with increasing
temperatures. Projections of temperature are more certain than those of precipitation, and
considerable regional variations exist. Precipitation is expected to decrease in the northern
regions, while southern areas could see an increase of as much as 20% (World Bank 2011).
2.4. Agro-pastoral Livelihood in Ethiopia
According to Gezahegn (2006), the dry-lands of Ethiopia are dominated by rangeland based
livestock production systems known as pastoralism and agro-pastoralism (partly involved in
opportunistic cropping). Similar to other countries in the Horn of Africa, agro-pastoralism in
Ethiopia has been spreading into purely pastoral rangelands as people have increasingly
adopted to farming over the last few hundred years, particularly the last 100 years (Holt,
1989). The emergence of agro-pastoralism could be partly associated with the decline in
range resources as well as decrease in both livestock numbers and productivity. This
compounded situation may have forced pastoralist to resort to agro-pastoralism.
Agro-pastoralists may be described as settled pastoralists who cultivate sufficient areas to
feed their families from their own crop production. Agro-pastoralists hold land rights, use
their own or hired labor to cultivate land and grow staples. While livestock are still valued
property, their herds are on average smaller than other pastoral systems, possibly because
they no longer solely rely on livestock and depend on a finite grazing area around their

15
village which can be reached within a day. Agro-pastoralists make greater investment in
housing and other local infrastructure and if their herds become large, they often send them
away with more nomadic pastoralists (Blench, 2001). The reality in the agro-pastoral areas is
that, because of climatic and man-made problems and lack of adequate policy support on the
part of the government, the agro-pastoral communities have become food insecure to such an
extent their livelihood is threatened, thereby making them more susceptible to external
shocks, such as drought (Yemane, 2003).
2.5. Adaptation Strategies
Adaptation is a process through which societies make themselves better able to cope with an
uncertain future. Adapting to climate change entails taking the right measures to reduce the
negative effect of climate change by making the appropriate adjustment and changes
(UNFCCC 2007).
According to the World Bank (2010) adaptations can be categorized in to two: autonomous
(private) and planned (public) adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation involves
adaptation action by farmers, communities and others in response to the threats to climate
change perceived by them, based on a set of available technology and management options.
FAO (2007) described autonomous adaptation as the reaction of, for example, a farmer to
changing precipitation pattern, in that he/she changes crops or using different harvest and
planting (sowing) dates. Autonomous adaptation is implemented by individuals only when
considered cost effective (Mendelsohn, 2006). Potential example of this type of adaptation
include selecting different technologies, changing crop inputs, crop management practices
suited to new environment, shifting crop calendar and changing irrigation schedule among
others.

16
Planned adaptation involve action by local, regional and/or national government to provide
needed public goods and incentives to the private sector to fit the new condition. The
conscious policy options or response strategies often multicultural in nature, aimed at altering
the adaptive capacity of the agricultural system or facilitating specific adaptations (FAO,
2007). For example deliberate crop selection and distribution strategies across different agro-
climatic zones, substitution of new crops for olds ones and resources substitution induced by
scarcity (Easterling, 1995). Other example of planned adaptation includes; transport and
storage infrastructure, modernization or development of new irrigation infrastructure and
training for the private and public sector capacity building (Rosenzweig and Tubiello, 2007).
Adaptation can be reactive such as emergency response, disaster recovery, and even
migration (Kurukulasuriya and Rosenthal, 2003). Adaptation also can be proactive and
anticipatory adaptation; this means implementing adaptive measures before the impacts
expected occur therefore avoiding higher costs than would otherwise be incurred and
damages to the economy.
Farmers in Ethiopia have suffered from the impacts of climate change and variability.
Messert (2009) reported that about 58% of the farmers in the Nile basin of Ethiopia
implement some traditional adaptation measures indicating that they are aware of the
changing climate. They practice changes in land use management (selection of crop types
based on soil moisture and slope), choose the most favourable crops, cultivars, and rotations,
adjusting frequency of tillage, planting density, timing of various operations, and applying
intercropping and other technologies to increase efficiency of water use (ICRA 1996,
1997,1999, Kassahun 2009). They have also introduced traditional irrigation and water
harvesting schemes to cope with water stress during the growing period.

17
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1. Description of the Study Area
3.1.1. Geographic Location
This study was conducted in Jigjiga District, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia which is
located at about 650 km east of Addis Ababa, the capital city of Ethiopia and about 60 km
north of the Ethio-Somali border. Jigjiga is bordered on the south by Kebri Beyah, on the
southwest by Gursum, on the southeast by Ajersa Gora, on the north by the Shinile Zone, and
on the northeast by Awbarre. It has an average elevation of 1,803 meters above sea level and
lies between 9°4‟0”N to 9°30'0”N and 42°40‟0‟‟E to 43°12'0”E (BoFED, 2013)
Figure 1: Map of the Study Area

18
3.1.2. Climate
Jigjiga is characterized by semi-arid climate with the influence of mountains and with hot and
dry summer and cold winters. There are two rainy seasons, known locally as the Dira’a (late
March to May) and the Karan (late July to October). The rainy seasons are alternated by two
dry seasons locally known as Jilal (late October to early March) and Hagaa (from late May
to early July). The mean monthly minimum temperature varies from 5.8°C in November to
14°C from July to September and the mean monthly maximum temperature varies from 25°C
in July to 29°C from March to April and maximum rainfall lying between 400 mm and 800
mm with the annual mean of 712 mm is attributable to Jigjiga Town and its vicinity (BoFED,
2013). .
3.1.3. Socio economic activities
Four generic livelihood types exist in the region: pastoralism, agro-pastoralism, farming
(sedentary and riverine) and urban (SCUK and DPPA, 2008). In Jigjiga district, rain-fed
sorghum and maize production, and livestock - mainly sheep/goats (shoats) and cattle are the
activities most people engaged. Although most of the people of Somali Regional State mainly
earn their livelihood from livestock, they practice crop production as well. The major crops
cultivated in the study area are sorghum and maize. Wheat and barley are also harvested in a
smaller amount each year. Other economic activities that play a significantly role in the study
area include petty trade, civil servants, hand craft and daily labour.
3.1.4. Population
Based on the 2007 Census conducted by the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia (CSA),
this District has a total population of 277,560, of whom 149,292 are men and 128,268
women. Estimating an average of five individuals per household, the town has about fifty-
five thousand five hundred households (55,500).

19
3.2. Sampling Techniques and Sample Size
In this study, multistage sampling techniques were employed. In the first stage Jigjiga District
was selected purposely among 68 Districts in 9 Zones of the ESRS considering its recurrent
experiences to rainfall shortage induced livelihood related effects and research gap. In the
second stage, three agro-pastoral kebeles (Hadow, Amadle, and Hodley) were selected from
the Kebeles of Jigjiga District purposively in consultation with experts from crop and
livestock production development office of the district based on their level of vulnerability to
climate related shocks. In the third stage households were drawn from the three Kebeles
based on probability proportional to size.
Regarding the sample size, this study was used a simplified formula provided by Yamane
(1967) to determine the required sample size at 91% confidence level and 9% level of
precision
= -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Equation (1)
Where n is the sample size, N is the population size (total number of households), and e is the
level of precision (sampling error) at 5% significance level.
The respective number of households were allocated for each sampled kebele based on
probability proportional to size (PPS) of each selected kebeles as indicated in table 1.

20
Table 1: Sample Kebeles by number of total households and sample size
Kebeles Total households Sampling size Percentage (%)
Hadow 1092 36 29.27
Amadle 1440 47 38.21
Hodley 1200 40 32.52
Total 3732 123 100
Source: Jigjiga District Administration and own computation (2017)
3.3. Data Collection Methods
Both primary and secondary data were used to undertake this research. The primary data
were obtained from primary sources including field observations, household survey, key
informant interviews, and focus group discussions. The secondary data were collected from
available sources of information such as published and unpublished documents. These
include data from CSA, meteorological agency, and Regional bureaus reports and survey.
3.3.1. Household survey
The household survey was carried out using sample households drawn from the population in
each kebele. To carry out the household survey, close ended and open ended format questions
were prepared and the sampled households were interviewed. The major issues which were
addressed in the household survey include household demographic characteristics, socio-
economic characteristics, information about people‟s perception on climate change and
variability, its impact on their livelihood and adaptation practices. A very important part of

21
the data collection process was the pre-test i.e. in order to check the validity and
appropriateness of the semi-structured questionnaire, ten households outside the sample
kebele were identified and interviewed for a pre-test prior to the actual interview of the total
sample households. Therefore, based on the feedback from the pre-tests, some ambiguities
were modified like questions which shall not be elucidated for enumerators.
3.3.2. Key informant interviews
The key informant interviews were conducted with local people who have a good knowledge
about the biophysical and socioeconomic conditions of the area and hence elders,
development agents, local leaders, model agro pastoralists, and Agriculture and Rural
Development Office experts were used as key informants. The important issues included in
this interview were the dynamics in temperature and precipitation over the last two decades,
perception of the agro pastoralists to climate change and variability, impacts of climate
change on Agro-pastoral livelihoods, the adaptation strategies practiced by them and etc. To
guide this interview checklist was used and the role of facilitation was assumed by the
researcher in the interview.
3.3.3. Focus group discussions
Focus group discussions were conducted to generate data at community level and involved a
small group of respondents to discuss on issues forwarded by the facilitator who is moderated
the discussion focusing on key issues of the research topic (Mwanje, 2001). In this study
focus group discussion participants were representatives from the community including
elders, women, and youth groups. At each Kebele, one separate focus group discussion was
carried with elders, women, and youth groups. Each group was comprised 8-12 participants.
The main purpose of the focus group discussion was to get insights on and understand the

22
perception of the people about climate change and variability, its impacts, and their responses
to the climate change and variability induced hazards. The major discussion topics are
communities understanding of climate change and variability and its cause, major hazards
and their impact and adaptation strategies and barriers to employ them effectively.
3.3.4. Field observations
In this study observations were made as supportive or supplementary technique to collect
data that can complement the data obtained by other means. During field data collection,
observations were made on various environmental changes including changes in agro-
ecology, vegetation covers, other topographic features and development interventions such as
soil and water conservation measures that exist in the area if any. The observation was made
also by following a transact line.
3.4 Methods of Data analysis
3.4.1. Descriptive Statistics
In this study two types of data analysis technique were made. These were descriptive
statistics and qualitative data analysis. Quantitative and qualitative data collected via
household survey, key informant interviews, focus group discussions were first coded,
arranged and edited using Excel spread sheets and then analysed by using SPSS version 16.0.
Descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, graphs, tables, mean and standard
deviation were used to summarize and present the result on demographic and socioeconomic
characteristics of the agro pastoralists. One-way ANOVA and Chi-square test were employed
to test the significance of continuous and categorical variables, respectively.

23
Ranking of alternative of climate change and variability induced impacts to their livelihood
with the major emphasis on crop and livestock production as well as adaptation strategies
were made. Then respondents were asked to rank the perceived impacts and adaptations as 1,
2, 3, n. where 1 is the most perceived problems and most used adaptations strategies.
Respondents were also given an opportunity to suggest additional problems and adaptation
strategies not listed in the survey questionnaire Then index values of the parameters were
calculated in order to rank the perceptions by weighting the agro-pastoralists‟ perception. To
test whether there is significant difference between the adopters and non-adopters of
adaptations strategies chi-square test were employed.
3.4.2. Meteorological Data Analysis
Rainfall Variability analysis: The Coefficient of Variation (CV), the Precipitation
Concentration Index (PCI), and the Standardized Rainfall anomaly (SRA) were used as
statistical descriptors of rainfall variability (Bewket and Conway, 2007; Ayalew et al., 2012;
Hadgu et al., 2013).
Coefficient of variation allows us to identify the degree of rainfall variability. It was
calculated as
𝐶𝑉=𝜎/𝜇-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Equation (2)
According to Hare (1983) cited in Gebremichel et al. (2014), CV is used to classify the
degree of variability of rainfall events as less, moderate and high. When 𝐶𝑉<20% it is less
variable, 𝐶𝑉 between 20% and 30% is moderately variable, and 𝐶𝑉 greater than 30% is
highly variable.

24
In order to study heterogeneity of monthly rainfall amount in the study area, Precipitation
Concentration Index (𝑃𝐶𝐼) was used (Luis et al., 2000), which is a modified version of
(Oliver, 1980). This index was described as:
= -------------------------------------------------Equation (3)
= ----------------------------------------------------Equation (4)
= --------------------------------------------------Equation (5)
Where, Pi is the rainfall amount of the ith
month and Σ = summation over the 12 months in
case of the annual PCI and 4 and 3 months in case of the Karan and Dira‟ seasonal PCI
respectively.
𝑃𝐶𝐼 values of less than 10 indicate uniform monthly distribution of rainfall in the year, values
between 11 and 20 indicate high concentration that denote seasonality in rainfall distribution,
and values above 20 indicate very high monthly concentration or variability (Oliver, 1980).
Inter-annual variability was evaluated using Standardized Rainfall Anomalies (SRA) for
rainfall with respect to the long-term normal conditions for a specific time scale. The SRA
(also called Standardized Anomaly Index) were calculated and graphically presented to
examine the nature of rainfall trend and also to determine dry and wet years in the study area
over the period of observation (Agnew and Chappel, 1999). It is described as:
𝑍= (𝑃𝑡−𝑃𝑚)/𝜎 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Equation (6)
Where, 𝑍 = standardized rainfall anomaly.
𝑃t = annual rainfall in 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡.

25
𝑃𝑚 = long-term mean annual rainfall, over a given period of observation.
𝜎 = standard deviation of annual rainfall over the period of observation.
Trend Analysis:
Simple linear regression test was used to analyse Trends of annual rainfall, maximum and
minimum temperature over the past 36 years (1980–2015).

26
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This chapter presents and discusses the results obtained from both qualitative and quantitative
survey data. It is divided into four sections. Section one presents descriptive results of
sampled households‟ demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Section two deals
with the perception of agro-pastoral households to climate change and variability, whereas
Section three is about the impact of climate change and variability on the livelihood of agro-
pastoralists. Finally the fourth section portrays different climate change adaptation methods
used by agro-pastoralists in the study area.
4.1. Demographic and Socio-Economic Characteristic of Respondents
To get information regarding climate of the past and compare with the present, age of the
respondents is crucial. According to the survey result, the mean age of interviewed household
heads were 42.19 years with maximum, minimum and SD of 75 and 25, 10.301 years
respectively (Table 2, appendix-6). Although there is age gap among the respondents; on
average respondents are in the productive age group.
Family size is associated with the availability of labor force that may enable the HH to
accomplish labor intensive adaptation strategies. The result in Table 2 also indicated that the
family size of the respondents ranged from 2 to 11 with an average household size of 5.54
persons per HH, which is above the national average rural family size of 4.9 persons per HH
and below Somali regional average household size of 6.5 persons per HH (Table 2, appendix-
6; CSA, 2007).
According to the survey result the maximum landholding size of the households were 64
qoodi (16 ha) and the minimum landholding size is 4 qoodi (1 ha). The mean average land
holding size is 19.28 qoodi which is equivalent to 4.82 ha (Table 2). This is above the

27
national average land holding of 1.02 ha. This indicates that there is no shortage of
agricultural land in the study area, rather a shortage of rainfall (Table 2).
Livestock holding size of the household is one indicator of wealth. To assess the livestock
holding of each household in terms of total livestock unit (TLU), the TLU per household was
calculated (See appendix 5 for conversion factor used). According to the survey result, the
households own 6.5840 TLU on average with the maximum, minimum and SD of 21.94,
0.39, 3.76 respectively (Table 2, appendix-6).
Table 2: Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of respondents in Jigjiga District
(continuous variables)
Variable Amadle (n= 47) Hadow (n=36) Hodley (n = 40) Total (n = 123)
Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD Mean SD
Age (years) 42.34 11.36 43.89 8.84 40.47 10.20 42.19 10.301
Family size 5.21 1.876 5.75 1.40 5.75 1.65 5.54 1.680
Farm land size 5.07 2.89 5.18 3.38 4.22 2.96 4.82 3.059
Livestock holding 2.89 2.82 3.00 4.77 2.75 3.81 2.88 1.14
Source: Own survey (2017).
The education level of the most respondents in all kebeles were low, only 17.1% of the
sampled households attended formal education, whereas, the majority (82.9%) had not
received any formal education. The low level of education implies that most agro-pastoralists
in the study area have few livelihood options, as they cannot find decent employment because
of their low level of education.

28
The result also showed that the majority (85.4%) of the HHs were male while small portions
(14.6%) were female. Likewise 85.4% of the interviewed individuals get married (Table 3)
Table 3: Demographic characteristics of respondents in Jigjiga District (dummy variables)
Percentage of respondents by kebele
Household
Characteristics
Amadle
(n= 47)
Hadow
(n= 36)
Hodley
(n= 40)
Average
(n=123)
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq.
Education status
Did not attend FE 37 78.7 30 83.3 35 87.5 102 82.9
Attended FE 10 21.3 6 16.7 5 12.5 21 17.1
Gender of HH
Male 41 87.2 31 86.1 34 85 106 86.2
Female 6 12.8 5 13.9 6 15 18 13.8
Marital status
Married 39 83 30 83.3 36 90 105 85.4
Single 5 10.6 3 8.3 1 2.5 9 7.3
Divorced 1 2.1 2 5.6 1 2.5 4 3.3
Widowed 2 4.3 1 2.8 2 4.3 5 4.1
Source: Own survey (2017). FE = Formal Education
Out of the total sampled households, 86.2% were pure semi-pastoralists (mixed crop and
animal production) and only 13.8% were engaged both in semi-pastoralism and off-farm

29
activities such as petty trading and civil servants. The major income sources of the sampled
households were crop production (65.9%), livestock keeping (28.5%) and off farm activities
(5.7%) (Table 4). This indicates that, agro-pastoralists in the study area tend to give more
attention for maximizing their income from crop production than livestock husbandry.
However, livestock products such as milk and meat play a great role for the household
livelihood. According to the respondents off farm activities included running a petty trade
and being civil servant.
Seid (2002) found that in many areas of Ethiopia, climate change and variability are affecting
the status of rural household food security, because they are subsistence agrarian
communities exclusively dependent on rain fed agriculture with low adaptive strategy to cope
up with the changes and variability. According to the survey result, 100% of the sample
households depend on rain fed agriculture (Table 4). This exacerbates vulnerability of agro-
pastoralist to the climate change and variability.

30
Table 4: Respondent‟s occupation, main income sources and farming types
HHs‟ Socioeconomic
Characteristics
Amadle
(n=47)
Hadow
(n=36)
Hodley
(n= 40)
Average
(n=123)
Occupation
Semi-pastoralists 46 95.7 27 75 33 82.5 106 86.2
Both semi pastoralists
and off farm activities
1 4.3 9 25 7 17.5 17 13.8
Major Income sources
Crop production 28 59.6 24 66.7 29 72.5 81 65.9
Livestock production 19 40.4 8 22.2 8 20 35 28.5
Off farm activities 0 0 4 11.1 3 7.5 7 5.7
Type of Farming
Rain-fed 47 100 36 100 40 100 123 100
Irrigation 0 0 0 0 0 0
Both 0 0 0 0 0 0
Access to reliable information about seasonal forecast of the weather condition and climate
variability is necessary to predict the coming weather condition, and to take measures in
order to reduce the damage. The survey result indicated that majority of the respondents
(77.2%) had no access to climate information (Table 5).

31
Table 5: Agro-pastoralists‟ Access to Climate information
HHs‟ access to climate
information
Amadle
(n=47)
Hadow
(n=36)
Hodley
(n= 40)
Average
(n=123)
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Access to climate information
Yes 10 21.3 8 22.2 10 25 28 22.8
No 37 78.7 28 77.8 30 75 95 77.2
Agro-pastoralists in the study area were also interviewed regarding the major feed sources for
their livestock, trend of pastureland and pastureland ownership. Majority of the sample
households (68.3%) indicated that the major feed sources for their livestock were crop
residue, Grazing (21.1%) and Hay (10.6%) while (100%) of the respondents mentioned that
pasture land has been decreasing for the last 20 years (table 6). The result also showed that
there is no communally owned pastureland and all pastureland are owned by individually and
that is one main constraint to livestock rearing in the study area.
According to the respondents Agricultural expansion and population increase are the two
major reasons imposed pastureland of the study area to be shrinkage. Other reasons in which
the households mentioned include recurrent drought for the last 20 years as a result of
shortage of rainfall as well as land degradation due to overgrazing, bush encroachment, and
invasion of rangeland weeds such as Lantana camara and Cactus species.

32
Table 6: Major feed sources, Pastureland ownership and Trend of pastureland availability
Variables Amadle
(n=47)
Hadow
(n=36)
Hodley
(n= 40)
Average
(n=123)
Major feed sources
Grazing
Hay
Crop residue
9
5
33
19.1
10.6
70.2
11
6
19
30.6
16.7
52.8
6
2
32
15
5
80
26
13
84
21.1
10.6
68.3
Pastureland ownership
Individually owned 47 100 36 100 40 100 123 100
Communally owned 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Trend of pastureland
Increased 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decreased 44 93.6 33 91.7 36 90 113 91.9
Remain same 3 6.4 3 8.3 4 10 10 8.1
Agro-pastoralists in the study area were also asked about constraints to crop and livestock
production. All respondents, (100%) indicate that there is a constraint to both crop and
livestock production (table 7). Constraints to the livestock rearing which they have mentioned
include drought, shortage of forage, shortage of water, diseases. In regard with crop

33
production, according to the respondents the major challenges include erratic rainfall,
shortage of rainfall, scarcity of improved seeds, crop diseases, pests etc.
Table 7: Constraints to crop and livestock production in Jigjiga District
Constraints Amadle
(n=47)
Hadow
(n=36)
Hodley
(n= 40)
Average
(n=123)
Constraints to livestock
production
Yes 47 100 28 77.8 34 85 109 88.6
No 0 0 8 22.2 6 15 14 11.4
Constraints to crop
Production
Yes 47 100 36 100 40 100 123 100
No 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
The household survey result shows that the most commonly practiced crops include Sorghum
(72.4%) followed by Maize (21.1%). Wheat is also cultivated by 6.5% of the respondents
(Table 8). In rare cases other crops grown in the study area, are cereals (Oats), oil crops
(ground nuts), pulses (Haricot bean, lentils and chickpea), Vegetables (Sweet Potato, onion,
Garlic, and tomatoes) and „Chat’ as perennial crop.

34
Sorghum is the most preferred crop because of its resistance to drought and also its residues
are sources of feed for the livestock. Cereal crops especially sorghum and maze are mainly
grown for household consumption, whereas oil crops and small portion cereals such as oats,
wheat, barley and lentils having low preference are marketed. Crop production, apart from its
contribution to the livelihood of the people in the study area, it plays significant role in
integration of animal and crop, as crop residues are used as a source feed during dry season.
Table 8: Major crops cultivated in the study area
Crops Amadle
(n = 47)
Hadow
(n = 36)
Hodley
(n = 40)
Average
(n = 123)
Freq. % Freq. % Freq. % Freq. %
Crops type
Maize 8 17.0 11 30.6 7 17.5 26 21.1
Sorghum 34 72.3 25 69.4 30 75.0 89 72.4
Wheat 5 10.6 0 0.0 3 7.5 8 6.5
Source: Own survey (2017)

35
4.2. Local Peoples’ Perception to Climate Change and Variability
Perception strongly affects how farmers deal with climate induced risks and opportunities,
and the precise nature of their behavioural responses to this perception will shape adaptation
options, the process involved and adaptation outcomes (Adger et al. 2009; Pauw 2013).
Misconception about climate change and its associated risk may result in no adaptation or
maladaptation thus increasing the negative impact of climate change (Grothmann and Patt
2005).
Therefore, it is important to understand the peoples view on climate change and variability
(Rainfall and temperature) and trends to dig out locally available climate variability and
adaptation options. In line with this, FGD participants, key informants and individual
households were asked about their perception of climate change, variability and trend. The
majority (93.5 %) of the respondents perceived changes in climatic conditions for the last 20
years (Table 9). However, 6.5 % of them indicated that they did not perceive any change in
climate.
Table 9: Agro-pastoralists perceptions to existence and direction of changes in overall climate
over the past 20 years in Jigjiga District
Households' Perception HHs‟ Responses (N = 123)
Freq. %
HHs‟ Perception to CCV
Yes 115 93.5
No 8 6.5

36
4.2.1. Perception to Rainfall Variability and Trend
A rainfall pattern in the study area is one of the most important determining factor shaping
agro-pastoral production systems and livelihoods in the study area since the communities
exclusively depend on rain-fed crop production and livestock rearing as a main economic
source in which both of them are very sensitive to erratic rainfall. In this regard, the
household survey result shows that the majority (92.7%) of Agro-pastoralists interviewed
believe that rainfall has highly varied over the last two decades, both temporally and
spatially.
In particular, rainfall at the beginning of the rainy season is essential for agricultural
production as it represents a critical moment for farmers to plant annual crops. According to
the focus group discussions and key informants, rainfall of the study area has changed
temporally since it begins late time and ends earlier than usual therefore; the duration it rains
is not like before and similar situation had been observed in regard with spatially which is
related to area coverage or space.
Majority (87.8%) of surveyed households in all kebeles perceived that early cessation and
late onset of rain for the last 20 years, (6.5%) supposed that rainfall comes late and goes late
while (5.7%) claimed there is seasonal disturbance meaning that there is a rainfall shift from
time to time and sometimes it rains unexpected time which is out of the known rainy seasons
or calendar. Therefore, this rainfall variability challenged the agro-pastoralists and imposed
dire consequences to their livelihood systems.
Likewise, those respondents who perceived rainfall variability were also concerned the
direction of change and the majority (91.1%) agreed that there is a decrease in rainfall for the
last 20 years. Whereas 0.8% of the respondents insisted rainfall has been increasing and 1.6%
claimed rainfall remained the same (Table 10).

37
Table 10: Agro-pastoralists perceptions to existence and direction of changes of rainfall over
the past 20 years in Jigjiga District
Freq. %
HHs‟ Perception to Rainfall variability
Yes 114 92.7
No 9 7.3
Characterization of Rainfall variability
comes late and goes early 108 87.8
comes late and goes late 8 6.5
Seasonal disturber 7 5.7
Change in average rainfall (Trend)
Increased 1 0.8
Decreased 112 91.1
Remain the same 2 1.6
Have no idea 8 6.5

38
Perceived level of drought occurrence
Drought is part of the normal cycle of life in arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is low at
the best of times and abnormally low every few years (Devereux, 2006). In Somali region
recent years drought become one of the most critical issue affecting the livelihoods of
millions of people and Jigjiga is not immune although previously it was one of the least
drought affected areas compared to other parts of the region. Now shortage of rainfall were
detected everywhere in the region and the study area is a good example of that.
Households were asked regarding the frequency of drought occurrence over the last twenty
years. As illustrated in figure 2 below, the majority of the respondents (52.8%) felt that
drought occurs every 1-2 years while 45.5% perceived drought occurs every 3-5 years (figure
2). Similarly, focus group discussions and key informant interviews confirmed that frequent
drought were experienced in recent years which were not usual before and consequently it
has negatively affected the livelihood of agro-pastoralists in the study area
.
Figure 2: Frequency of drought occurrence in Jigjiga District
Source: own survey (2017)

39
4.2.2. Perception to Temperature Variability and Trend
According to the household survey, the majority of the respondents (93.5%) perceived
temperature variability for the last twenty years (Table 11). About 62.6% of the respondents
indicated that there had been increased day and night temperatures while a considerable
proportion of them 27.6% observing more extreme temperature conditions over the last
twenty years (Table 11). However, in regard with long term change or trend 74% of the
sample households‟ perceived increase of temperature, 0.8% perceived decrease of
temperature, 22% perceived no change and the rest 3.3% were indifferent. Similarly, Deressa
et al., (2008), Yesuf et al., (2008) revealed that temperature and humidity have significantly
increased over the last 20 years in Ethiopia.

40
Table 11: Agro-pastoralists perceptions to existence and direction of changes of temperature
over the past 20 years in Jigjiga District
Freq. %
HHs‟ Perception to Tem. Variability
Yes 115 93.5
No 8 6.5
Characterization of Temp. variability
Increasing 77 62.6
Decreasing 12 9.8
Irregular 34 27.6
Change in average temperature (Trend)
Increased 91 74
Decreased 1 0.8
Remain the same 27 22
Have no idea 4 3.3

41
4.2.3. Awareness on the Causes of Climate Change and Variability
Respondents were asked whether they have familiar with the term climate change and
variability before and their response shows that the majority of them (66.7%) didn‟t receive
any information regarding climate change and variability whereas 33.3% of the respondents
were informed and understand climate change and variability (table 12). Those respondents
who claimed they were informed were subsequently asked the source of information and
majority of them reported that the major sources of climate information were government
agents (12.2%), radio (11. 4%), NGOs (0.8%), other sources (8.9%) (Table 12)
Most of the people in Ethiopia consider climate change and variability as an act of natural
causes. However, few people associated climate change and variability with anthropogenic
factors. The overwhelming majority of climate change researchers have reached the
understanding-based on decades of evidence, modelling, and debate-that it is extremely likely
that human activities are responsible for the rising temperatures on Earth and Human
behaviour will continue to be a major factor in climate change (NSF, 2009.)
Contradicting to that when respondents were asked about primary causes of climate change
and variability, no one mentioned the role of greenhouse gases in driving climate change and
variability. Majority of the respondents indicated that supernatural factor (78.9%) were the
main cause of climate change and variability due to violence, noncompliance and
faithlessness of this generation to Allah‟s will, rules and failure to glorify him. Human factors
were mentioned by only 3.3% of the respondents as causes of climate change, whereas,
17.1% of them indicated both human and natural factors as drivers of climate change and
variability. Small proportions, (0.8%), of respondents were not sure or could not give an
explanation for what the cause for climate change could be (Table 12). Similarly, Debela et al
(2015) reported that disobedience and unfaithfulness to God‟s rules, failure to glorify him and

42
divergence from the age-old Borana tradition have led to divine punishment, especially
drought events.
Table 12: Perception of the respondents on awareness and cause of climate change and
variability
HHs awareness to CCV HHs‟ Responses (N = 123)
Freq. %
Awareness to CCV
Yes 41 33.3
No 82 66.7
Source of information
Have no idea 82 66.7
Radio 14 11.4
Government 15 12.2
TV 1 0.8
Others 11 8.9
Causes of CCV
Natural factor 97 78.9
Human factor 4 3.3
Both 21 17.1
Have no idea 1 0.8
Source: Own survey (2017)

43
4.3. Temperature and Rainfall Variability and Trends Based on Meteorological Data
In general, the meteorological stations of Ethiopia are insufficient in number and data for
most of the stations are incomplete and limited to recent years. There is one meteorological
station in Jigjiga District which has limited information on the aspects of climate of the study
area. Hence temperature and rainfall data of the last 30 years was obtained from Jigjiga
meteorological station but it was only 15 years data. However, the completed monthly
maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall data of the area for the last 36 years was
obtained from the National Metrological Agency in Addis Ababa
4.3.1. Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Variability and Trends
4.3.1.1. Annual and Seasonal Rainfall Variability
The annual rainfall in the study area ranged between 380.1mm and 861mm with mean of
579.55mm and standard deviation of 138.91mm over the study period of 1980 to 2015 (Table
13).
As it is illustrated in Fig 3 below, the rainfall in the area is bimodal. The first short rainy
season which is locally known as Dira’ extends from March to May while the second long
rainy season which is locally known as Karan extends from July to August. The result also
indicated that monthly average rainfall was least in the month of January followed by
November while maximum rainfall occurs in the month of April followed by October (Fig 3).
Dira’ season rainfall varied from 68.3 mm to 439 mm with mean 217.16 mm and standard
deviation of 72.89mm, while Karan rainy season rainfall ranges between 133.10mm and
410.7mm with the mean of 269.28mm and standard deviation of 71.78mm.

44
Figure 3: Mean monthly rainfall distribution of 36 years (1986-2015) of Jigjiga district
Source: Computed from Data Obtained from NMA (1980-2015)
Moreover, the analysis of coefficient of variation revealed that rainfall in the district has
shown moderate to high inter-annual variability depending on the seasons (Table 13).
Rainfall during Dira’ season was highly variable (CV=34%) while annual and Karan rainy
season had moderate inter-annual variability (CV=24% and 27%) respectively in the study
area. The result also indicated that Dira’ season rainfall has high variable than Karan season,
suggesting that the Dira‟ season was least reliable for rain-fed type of farming especially for
short cycle crops. This finding is in alignment with previous studies which indicated that Belg
season rainfall has high inter-annual and inter-seasonal variation than Kiremt season rainfall
in Ethiopia (Tesfaye and Walker, 2004; Ayalew et al., 2012; Hadgu et al., 2013). Rosell
(2011) also argued that large variability of Belg rainfall already makes this season unsuitable
for rain-fed agriculture in Ethiopia.

45
Table 13: Descriptive statistics of rainfall at Jigjiga station (1980- 2015)
Descriptive statistics Annual and Seasonal Rainfall
Annual Rainfall Dira’a (MAM) Karan (JASO)
Mean (mm) 579.55 217.16 269.28
Standard Deviation (mm) 138.91 72.89 71.78
Co-efficient of Variation (%) 24% 34% 27%
Maximum (mm) 862mm 439mm 411mm
Minimum (mm) 380.10mm 68.30mm 133.10mm
Mean PCI (%) 11.51% 9.27% 8.76%
Source: Computed from data obtained from NMA of Ethiopia
Similarly, PCI analysis has been carried out on annual and seasonal (Dira‟ and Karan) basis
and the results showed that uniform to high concentration (table 13). According to Oliver,
(1980) PCI classification Dira‟ and Karan seasons indicated uniform monthly concentration
of rainfall or less variability while annual has shown high concentration which indicates
seasonality in rainfall distribution.
The result of rainfall anomaly analysis for the annual rainfall generally indicated cyclic wet
and dry conditions with negative anomalies for 58.33% of the years (Fig 4). This implies that
rainfall in the study area exhibited high inter-annual variation during the study period. It is
also apparent that between 1980 and 2015, the proportion of years recorded below the long
term average rainfall at the station was 61.11%. Based on Ayalew et al (2012) drought
classification system, nine annual droughts occurred in the study area from 1980-2015 in
which one of them was extreme drought, three were severe droughts and the rest were
moderate droughts, meaning that there is one drought for every four years. The drought

46
severity classes are extreme drought (SRA < -1.65), severe drought (-1.65 < SRA <-1.28),
moderate drought (-1.28< SRA < -0.84), and no drought (SRA > -0.84)
Figure 4: Standardized anomaly of total annual Rain Fall at Jigjiga (1980 - 2015)
The karan rainfall anomaly showed that 50% of the observed seasons were experienced an
amount of rain lower than the long terms mean with the 50% of negative anomaly (Fig 5a).
Osman and Sauerborn (2002) also found negative anomalies with Kiremt rainfall frequently
been lower than the long-term average for the north central highlands of Ethiopia. Based on
Ayalew et al (2012) drought classification, ten droughts occurred in Karan rainy season in
which two of them were extreme drought (SRA < -1.65), one severe drought (1.65 <SRA < -
1.28), seven moderate drought (-1.28< SRA <-0.84) (Fig 5a).
Similarly, 52.78% the years showed negative anomaly for Dira’ season relative to long term
average rainfall (Fig 5b). According to Ayalew et al (2012) SRA classification, five drought
occurred during Dira’ rainfall season during study period, that is two extreme drought (SRA
< -1.65), one severe drought (-1.65 <SRA < -1.28), two moderate drought (-1.28< SRA <-
0.84) (Fig 5b). Moreover, the frequency of drought as well as negative anomaly during Dira’

47
season has increased in the last decade (Fig 5b). Generally this study indicates that rainfall in
the study area has shown inter-annual variability while Dira’ rainy season showed more
inter-seasonal fluctuations than Karan rainy season implying that its unsuitability for rain-fed
type of crop production, especially long maturing crops.
Figure 5: Standardized anomaly of (a) Karan (JASO) and (b) Dira‟a (MAM) R.F at Jigjiga
(1980 - 2015)
4.3.1.2. Annual and Seasonal rainfall Trend
According to Figure 6 below, the analysis of linear trend showed that the amount of annual
rainfall slightly decreased between 1980 and 2015 and this is in accordance with the
perception of the local people towards the average of rainfall.

48
Figure 6: Annual and seasonal rainfall trend and variability at Jigjiga (1980-2015)
Although there is a decline in the amount of rainfall in the study area for the last three and
half decades, the linear regression t-test on annual rainfall data showed a statistically non-
significant declining trend (13.66mm per decade) of annual rainfall over the study period of
1980 to 2015 at 5% level of significance with the p-value of 0.607 (Table 14). Similarly both
Karan and Dira‟a rainfall showed non-significant declining trend (4.131mm and 0.757 mm
per decade) with p-value of 0.725 and 0.949 respectively.
Based on the meteorological data analysis on the average annual rainfall for the past 36 years,
it can be concluded that there was variability of rainfall in the study area. This is in line with
the perception of most respondents towards rainfall in which majority of them felt that there
has been variability of the rainfall for the past two decades. Likewise, the result indicated that
there had been a decline of rainfall over the past 36 years that caused high frequency of
droughts in the study area and also this is confirmed by local people‟s perception.

49
Furthermore, the agro-pastoralists claimed that before 15-20 years, they used to cultivate and
harvest two times per year but currently it is possible to harvest once per year due to
irregularity of Dira’ rainy season and this also true for meteorological data analysis in which
Dira‟ rainy season has shown high variability than karan season. This result is in agreement
with the findings of the study conducted in different part of Ethiopia by NMA, which has
shown a high level of rainfall variability (NMA, 2007).
4.3.2. Annual Temperature Variability and Trends
According to national meteorology agency of Ethiopia (NMA, 2001) the average annual
maximum temperature in the country has increased by 0.10 0
C per decade whereas the
average annual minimum temperature of the country has increased by 0.37 0
C per decade
(NMA, 2007).
Figure 7: Annual maximum temperature variability and trend at Jigjiga (1980-2015)
As it is shown in figure 7 & 8 the average maximum temperature of the study area has
increased while the minimum average temperature has slightly decreased and there was
variability of temperature from one year to the other especially the minimum temperature has

50
shown high variability than maximum temperature for the last 36 years (from 1980-2015).
The average maximum temperature was increased by 0.433 0
C per decade (which is slightly
higher than the country‟s average) (Figure 7). In contrary to the result from the national
meteorology agency of Ethiopia (2007), the average minimum temperature of the study area
was decreased by 0.0936 0
C for every decade from the period 1980 to 2015 (figure 8). This
disparity might be explained by the choice of different study period and large inter-annual
variations of temperature in the country since the NMA result was based on country level or
average.
Figure 8: Annual minimum temperature variability and trend at Jigjiga (1980-2015)
The linear regression t-test on maximum and minimum temperature data showed a
statistically significant increasing trend (0.4330
C per decade ) of annual maximum
temperature over the study period of 1980 to 2015 at 5% level of significance with the p-
value of 0.000 (figure 7 above). Also minimum temperature data analysis showed that non-
significant declining trend (0.0936 per decade) with p-value of 0.296 at 5% level of
significance.

51
4.4. Impact of the Climate Change and Variability on Agro-pastoralists in Jigjiga
District
Livestock together with crop production comprises the main source of income for the agro-
pastoralists in the study area. Both of them are very susceptible to climate change and
variability. Respondents who perceived change in climate conditions (rainfall and
temperature) were asked whether they have seen any impact from climate change and
variability specifically temperature and rainfall to their livestock and crop production. For
those who perceived were again inquired to list and rank the problems as 1, 2, 3…..n, giving
1 with most frequently observed problems. Then the index of each problem were calculated
and ranked the problems based on the computed index.
4.4.1. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Crop production
In the absence of permanent or seasonal rivers, agro-pastoralists of the Jigjiga District depend
on rain for both domestic water consumption and crop farming. Focus group discussions, Key
informants and majority of the interviewed households indicated that the impact of climate
change and variability on their livelihood is obvious. Majority (92.68%) of agro-pastoralists
in all kebeles reported that the observed changes in rainfall and temperature over the last two
decades have a great impact on their traditional farming systems and related livelihoods
(table 14). Failure of crops, Decline in crop yields, decreased soil fertility and increased
erosion and Crop diseases & increasing weeds were the major impacts of climate change and
variability as mentioned by the crop farmers

52
Table 14: Impact of climate change and variability on crop production
Respondents
Impacts Yes No Rank Index X2
N Freq. % Freq. %
Crop failure 123 114 92.68 9 7.32 1 0.34 89.634***
Decreased soil fertility and erosion 123 75 60.98 48 39.02 4 0.11 5.927**
Production per ha is decreasing 123 114 92.68 9 7.32 2 0.28 89.634***
Crop diseases & weeds 123 113 91.87 10 8.13 3 0.2 86.252***
Problem of seasonal flooding 123 77 62.6 46 37.4 5 0.07 7.813***
Source: Own survey (2017) ***, ** = Significant at 0.01& 0.05 probability level respectively
Droughts and delays in the onset of rains have made the farm lands become drier and difficult
to plough, caused declined growth of crops and slow germination of seeds resulting in early
wilting of the crops. According to the respondents in all kebeles, harvests have diminished; in
some cases, because of water shortages induced by low rainfall and higher temperatures that
cause high evapo-transpiration, in others because of crop diseases and pests. Additionally, the
impact of moisture stress varies among crops; cereal crops especially sorghum and maize are
relatively tolerant while pulses are the most affected ones
The major reasons for the reduction of cereal crop yields were: a) low amount and short rainy
period; b) onset and offset of rainy seasons causing discrepancy in the cropping calendar; 3)
soil fertility loss due to erosion by water and wind; 4) invasive weeds (Parthenium

53
hysterophorus) and pests such as worms affecting both maize and sorghum which are the two
dominant crops currently cultivated in the study area. Following the unpredictable nature of
the rainfall, the cultivation of cereal crops in the study area is becoming highly opportunistic.
Though further study is needed, agro-pastoralists relate this new phenomenon observed on
the crops to the climate change and variability.
Furthermore, FGDs and KII also added that increase of infestation of pests and diseases of
both cereal and horticultural crops in the area. A pest infestation of stem borer is frequently
occurring every year now and become challenging for cereal and horticultural crops. This
pest with its disastrous effect mainly affects maize and sorghum and is usually active in early
growth stages. They also mentioned that these diseases are more common and active during
the periods of higher temperatures.
In the case of vegetable and fruit crops, agro-pastoralists listed the following diseases as a
threat to their crop production system: curl leaf, Aphids, and root drying .The effect of these
diseases are not same to all vegetables or fruits. For instance, root drying mainly affects
tomatoes; Aphids affects both tomatoes and salads, while curl leaf is a disease which mainly
affects citrus fruits. Moreover, according to the respondents, these horticultural crop diseases
have been occurring repeatedly from time to time with higher infestation and damage when
there is a remarkable rise of temperature. Thus, it seems that these diseases are more active
and favour during hot weather condition.
On the other hand, agro pastoralists noted that poor soil fertility due to soil erosion caused by
heavy rainfall and extreme wind is also another attribution for the reduction of cereal crops
yields in the study area. Despite the fact that the amount of rainfall in the study area is low, it
is intense and erosive when it drops for that short duration - causing massive soil erosion and
flooding.

54
4.4.2. Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Livestock Production
Livestock systems play an important role in the livelihoods of many rural communities in
Africa, more so in arid and semi-arid areas, where milk and meat are important dietary
components due to lower availability of food from crops (Silvestri, et al, 2012)
According to the household survey results, almost all respondents indicated negative impacts
of climate change and variability to their livestock production systems and livelihoods. The
major impacts to their livestock husbandry systems mentioned by agro-pastoralists included
feed shortages, livestock diseases, water shortages, reduction of production (offspring
numbers, milk and meat yields), sudden deaths and market failure (table 15). This resulted in
reduction of household incomes from livestock and livestock products.
Table 15: Impact of climate change and variability on livestock production
Respondents
Problems Yes No Rank Index X2
N Freq. % Freq. %
Feed shortages 123 115 93.50 8 6.50 1 0.27 93.081***
Diseases 123 115 93.50 8 6.50 3 0.18 93.081***
Water shortages 123 115 93.50 8 6.50 2 0.25 93..081***
Reduction of Production 123 114 92.68 9 7.32 4 0.15 89..634***
Sudden deaths 123 113 91.87 10 8.13 5 0.09 86.252***
Market failure 123 113 91.87 10 8.13 6 0.05 86.252***
Source: field survey (2017) *** = Significant at 0.10 probability level

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