Ahmed Sadiddin (FAO) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"
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As part of the seminar held by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with UNDP "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt: current state & the potential of big data"
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Ahmed Sadiddin (FAO) • 2019 IFPRI Egypt - UNDP Seminar "Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt"
- 1. Food security in Egypt: recent estimates, achievements and challenges Ahmad Sadiddin, Economist, ahmad.Sadiddin@fao.org FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa UNPD and IFPRI Seminar: Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt: Current state and the potential of big data
- 2. Measuring food security: the FAO approach 2
- 3. FAO Food security indicators • Availability – Average dietary energy supply adequacy (percent) (3-year average) – ……. Etc • Accessibility – Prevalence of undernourishment (PoU) – Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) – …. Etc 3 • Stability – Cereal import dependency ratio – Value of food imports in total merchandise exports – ….. etc • Utilization – Prevalence of anemia in women, wasting and stunting in children etc – Prevalence of obesity in adults – ….. etc
- 4. How Egypt is doing regarding FS? 1-availability 4 138 140 142 144 146 148 150 152 154 Average dietary energy supply adequacy (percent) (3-year average)
- 5. 2- Stability indicators 5 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cereal import dependency ratio (percent) (3-year average) Value of food imports in total merchandise exports (percent) (3-year average)
- 6. 3-Utilization 6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Prevalence of anemia among women of reproductive age (15-49 years) Prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older)
- 7. 4- accessibility (PoU+FIES) 8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the total population (percent) (3-year average) Prevalence of severe food insecurity in the total population (percent) (3-year average) Prevalence of undernourishment (percent) (3-year average)
- 8. FIES questionnaire 1. You were worried? 2. You were unable to eat healthy? 3. You ate only a few types? 4. You had to skip a meal? 5. You ate less than you thought you should? 6. Your HH ran out of food? 7. You were hungry but did not eat? 8. You went all the day without eating?
- 9. 4- accessibility (PoU+FIES) 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2014-2016 2015-2017 2016-2018 Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the total population (percent) (3-year average) Prevalence of severe food insecurity in the total population (percent) (3-year average) Prevalence of undernourishment (percent) (3-year average)
- 10. 4- accessibility – severe vs moderate This is the name of the Conference 1118 May 2015 9.4 10.1 10.1 18.2 22.7 25.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2014-2016 2015-2017 2016-2018 Prevalence of only moderate food insecurity in the total population (percent) (3-year average) Prevalence of severe food insecurity in the total population (percent) (3-year average)
- 11. Poverty trend source: CAPMAS This is the name of the Conference 1218 May 2015 16.7 19.6 21.6 25.2 26.3 27.8 32.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1999-2000 2004-2005 2008-2009 2010-2011 2012-2013 2015 2017-2018
- 12. Where are the poor concentrated? This is the name of the Conference 1318 May 2015 19 12 31.6 10.8 25.2 15.6 5.3 26.5 10 40.3 26.7 14.3 27.3 30 51.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Urban governorates Urban sea regions Rural sea regions Urban Upper Egypt Rural Upper Egypt % in total population % in the poor population Share of poor in local population
- 13. Key messages • Challenges are far from trivial regarding achieving the two very related SDGs 1 and 2 by 2030, despite noticeable progress on some aspects of SGD2. • Egypt seems to show a double burden: – From one side FS and poverty are worsening causing hunger – Obesity has been increasing too • This requires certainly a different approach than what prevailed in the past This is the name of the Conference 1418 May 2015
- 14. FAO and Egypt • Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy 2030. • Cluster-based rural development. • Egypt vision 2030 (food security pillar with the MoP) • Capacity building various sustainability issues including: – Water accounting and water productivity – SDGs monitoring – VCs development – Food loss and waste reductions This is the name of the Conference 1518 May 2015
- 15. Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy 2030 • When it comes to agriculture, the FAO advocates sustainable and resource-efficient agricultural practices that maximize output per unit of scarce inputs such as water. Efficiency and sustainability at the farm level • But the key to generate employment, especially off-farm rural employment is the development of sustainable efficient and inclusive food system. Value addition Labour-intensive VCs in which Egypt has comparative advantages This is the name of the Conference 1618 May 2015
- 16. Why focus on food systems? • Food systems can play an important role in unlocking the potential comparative advantages of the region’s agricultural products leading to resource efficient agriculture. For example, in Egypt, agroporcessing contributes only to 6.1% as contribution of GDP but 14.2% to total exports. • The low capital requirements of engaging in small-scale agroprocessing businesses make them feasible for poor households, specially when the poor can have access to adequate credit, affordable technology and market information. This is the name of the Conference 1718 May 2015
- 17. Agro-food clusters? • It is very promising that the Government made cluster- based industrialization a key pillar of Egypt’s sustainable development strategy to 2030. • Why? • Clusters help in the consolidation of small enterprises to gain scale necessary to materialize full potentials for agriculture and agroprocessing. • They also offer various mechanisms to reduce transaction costs and overcome financial constraints using the social capital of HHs of the same community. This is the name of the Conference 1818 May 2015
- 18. Thank you for the attention Ahmad Sadiddin, Economist, ahmad.Sadiddin@fao.org FAO Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa UNPD and IFPRI Seminar: Measuring poverty and food security in Egypt: Current state and the potential of big data This is the name of the Conference 1918 May 2015
Editor's Notes
- Availability refers to the physical existence of food. On national level food availability is a combination of domestic food production, commercial food imports and exports, food aid and domestic food stocks. On household level food could be from own production or bought from the local markets. Access is ensured when all households have enough resources to obtain food in sufficient quantity, quality and diversity for a nutritious diet. This depends mainly on the amount of household resources and on prices. In addition, accessibility is also a question of the physical, social and policy environment. Utilization describes the socio-economic aspects of household food and nutrition security, determined by knowledge and habits. Assuming that nutritious food is available and accessible, the household has to decide what food to purchase and how to prepare it as well as how to consume and allocate it within the household. Stability describes the temporal dimension of food and nutrition security, respectively the time frame over which food and nutrition security is being considered. Stability is given when the supply on household level remains constant during the year and in the long-term. That includes food, income and economic resources.
- So, for each dimension of food security, we have a set of indicators that reflect one aspect or another of that dimension. For example, in the Suite of Food Security indicators, we under availability 5 indicators, each reflecting a different aspect. A first one is the Average dietary energy supply adequacy (percent) (3-year average) and it refers to the Dietary Energy Supply (DES) as a percentage of the Average Dietary Energy Requirement (ADER). So if the figure is equal or greater than 100, it indicates that the country has enough food to meet its needs in terms of dietary energy. There are other indicators that measure protein supply, average value of agri production etc. As we will see in later, in Egypt as in most countries of the World, availability is not the main concern now for FS. It is more the other dimensions especially accessibility and to a great extent also the utilization. The most important indicators that measure accessibility are PoU and FIES, but they are others such GDP per capita. Stability dimension can be measured by a set of indicators as cereal import dependency ratio (external shocks) and the ratio of food imports to total merchandise exports (the ability of a country to finance its food imports). Utilization refers to how food is utilized and it is affected by knowledge, education, hygiene among others. It specifically refers to how efficient food consumption is regarding securing active and healthy life. Most reported indicators are those on the prevalence of anemia in women, obesity in adults, and wasting and stunting in children. In the coming slides, I will how data, mostly recent data on a selected number of FS indicators for Egypt. The aim is show which dimensions of FS needs more attention in policy formulation.
- For availability it is shown through what is called the average dietary energy supply adequacy. The indicator expresses the Dietary Energy Supply (DES) as a percentage of the Average Dietary Energy Requirement (ADER). So it is simply how much is supplied over how much is needed. Once the share is over 100%, it means there is no problem of availability which has been the case in Egypt
- To get a sense of stability of FS, I’m showing here the evolution of two indicators: The value of food imports in total merchandise exports. Certainly the figure shows that Egypt is very dependent on imports for cereals, the main food staple in the country. In fact, since the 1990s, Egypt imported more than 40% of its needs of cereals. This dependency certainly have implication on the stability of food supplies into the country. However, we have good news that Egypt’s total merchandise exports far surpass her food imports. This means that Egypt has the capacity to pay the bills of food imports. This, when coupled with other measure, can certainly improve the stability dimension of Egypt’s FS.
- Good news: that prevalence of anemia is going down. However, we have two bad news 1- is that prevalence of anemia is still very high 2- is that prevalence of obesity is already high and it is increasing. We have certainly problems of food utilization, that adds to the problem of accessibility. People are eating unhealthy, not enough food, not enough healthy food. Certainly poverty and education levels play core roles in determining the status of food security and nutrition of any individual or household.
- ON accessibility, the FAO have two major indicators. The first is PoU and it is the traditional, “old” one, and we have also what is now called FIES, and this is a new one that the FAO started working it out a few years ago, and that is why we have on it only a few observations so far. What is the difference between PoU and FIES? Generally speaking, PoU is calculated using mostly aggregate data and relies heavily on assumptions for the distribution of income. It is the traditional indicator used by FAO to monitor global, regional and country-level hunger. Computation of this indicator utilizes aggregate data on food available for human consumption from country food balance sheets and data on food consumption from surveys. The distribution of average, daily dietary energy consumption in the population is compared with the distribution of dietary energy needs. These needs are recalculated each year based on the composition of the population by age, gender and physical activity levels. For each country, the comparison of consumption to needs yields an estimate of the proportion of the population that lacks enough dietary energy for a healthy, active life. However, calculation relies on assumptions for data which are not available from surveys. Then it is focused on energy / calories.
- The Prevalence of Food Insecurity according to the FIES is a direct measure of the access dimension of household or individual food security based on annual surveys. The indicator is calculated from data on people’s direct responses to eight questions regarding their access to food of adequate quality and quantity. Surveyed individuals are divided into three classes based on their answers to a series of questions about conditions and behaviours associated with their access to food—(1) food secure or marginally insecure, (2) moderately food insecure or (3) severely food insecure. The FImod+sev is the cumulative probability of being in the two classes of moderate and severe food insecurity. A separate indicator (FIsev) is computed by considering only the severe food insecurity class. Moderate food insecurity means that people face uncertainties about their ability to obtain food, and thus may have been forced to reduce the quality or quantity of food they consume during the year, due to lack of money or other resources. Moderate food insecurity therefore refers to a lack of consistent access to food, which diminishes dietary quality and can have negative consequences for nutrition and health. People facing severe food insecurity are likely to have run out of food, experienced hunger and, in extreme circumstances, have gone for days without eating, exposing their health and life to grave risk.
- In this figure and along the last few years, we see that while PoU tells that less 5% are food insecure when considering energy intakes, FIES tells me we have 10% who were severely food insecure. So FIES tells us there is 10% of the Egyptian population who have encountered at least one of the following conditions: running out of food, were gone all the day without eating, in the year of the survey.
- So as we see the most recent figures on poverty and food insecurity are very similar, if we take the moderate FI threshold. We have 32% of poor vs. 36% of food insecure. Can we say that the poor are more less the same ones suffering from FS in Egypt? Certainly there is a lot of overlap between the two. Poverty indicator is focused on money necessary to access a bundle of goods and services, while FIES focuses on “subjective” ability to access food. They also complement each other.
- As poverty and FI are interconnected we can use one to understand the other. We do not have disaggregated data for FI, but we do have it for poverty. So, we see that in Egypt accessibility to food is worsening all over the country. This is the case in rural Egypt than in the Urban areas. It is also a problem in Lower Egypt more than in Lower Egypt. The worst case we have it in rural Upper Egypt: where we have 25.2% of the national population, but including 40% of he country poor. So the poor make 52% of the local population in Upper Egypt.
- From here on, I would like to highlight a few things that the FAO is doing in Egypt, in collaboration with the government and other international agencies. The focus of what follows will be on matters related to improve the accessibility dimension of FS. This is due to time constraint, but it is a matter of personal competence. In fact, on the matter of food utilization, the FAO will soon release the regional overview 2019 which is focused this year on nutritional aspects of FS. We are doing many things in Egypt, so I will focus only on the first two elements.
- Unemployment in Egypt is not very high. It was about 12% in 2017, but youth unemployment is very high reaching almost 30%. So we need to increase productivity of scarce resources, especially water, but also to generate jobs. Agriculture as a primary sector will have limited potentials in directly generating jobs. However, taken as agrifood system it has the potential to create employment. Agroprocessing is very labour intensive and has higher labour productivity.
- I would like to conclude my presentation by highlighting another area of collaboration between FAO and the Government in which IFPRI is playing a central role. It is the advocacy of cluster-based industrialization based on food systems. Two months ago we signed an LOA with IFPRI to study promising clusters to help the government identify them and understand the bottlenecks which constrain their flourishing. 1- Clusters have many advanatges that suit the conditions of Egypt from which I would like to highlight two: 2- Clusters help in the consolidation of small enterprises to gain scale necessary to materialize full potentials for agriculture and agroprocessing. They also offer various mechanisms to reduce transaction costs and overcome financial constraints using the social capital of HHs of the same community.