Carmelo DIMAURO1, Marco BULDRINI2, Stefano OLIVERI3, Paolo SEMINATI3, Paolo FRATTINI4 1RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy, Republic of; 2NIER Ingegneria, Italy; 3Ecometrics Srl, Italy; 4Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Universit`a degli Studi di Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy

1. + Carmelo DI MAURO
RGS Srl – Risk Governance Solutions
A Regional Multi-Risk Assessment Approach to Support the
Definition Public Mitigation Strategies
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC
"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society”
26-30 August 2012 Davos (CH)

2. Outline
 Background
 Main characteristics of a GIS-Based Regional Multi-
Risk DSS
 Conclusions
© C. Di Mauro 2012 2

3. Public Goals
Public policy for mitigation of natural and technological risks and
the related resource allocation strategies have a simple objective:
Protect individuals and communities and reduce losses.
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4.  From a theoretical perspective risk assessment and analysis
provides the necessary inputs for rational decision-making for
public policy and resource allocation.
 In practice it is quite difficult to reach such goal due to several
different aspects such as for instance, the uncertainty related to
risk assessment process and the related results, the conflicting
objectives of the stakeholders involved in the decision-making
processes, the difficulty of laypeople to properly understand the
information related to risk evaluations.
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5. Multiple type of risks
The decision-making process becomes even more complex
because
typically a region and the related communities are exposed to
multiple types of hazard that differ from each other in terms of
frequency of occurrence, magnitude and impact that they may
generate.
Moreover, the multiple hazards can generate multiple types of
loss (e.g. losses related to human, environment, material and
production, etc.), which can imply a different evaluation and
judgement for the decisions makers and stakeholders.
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6. GIS-based multi-risk Decision Support Tool
 In order to overcome such problem and to support public
decision makers in such difficult task, a GIS-based multi-risk
Decision Support Tool have been developed for Lombardy
Region (Italy).
 The tool mainly allows categorising a region according to the
spatial distribution of the several different types of risks and the
related components.
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7. GIS-based multi-risk Decision
Support Tool – Main objectives
The following objectives can be recognised as the most relevant in order to support
the definition of mitigation strategies at regional scale:
1.Identification of critical areas for further investigations (hotspots);
2.Identification of suitable non-critical areas for safe urban development
strategies;
3.Identificationand ranking of critical areas to support the definition of
mitigation strategies and the prioritisation of public resources to be
allocated.
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8. From Data to Decision
Decision!
Knowledge
DDS
OLAP,Models, GIS
DataWarehouse
Raw Data Catasters DB
From Data
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9. DSS Information
DSS info at the detailed scale
Risk Assessment GRID 20m x 20m
1st level aggregated GRID - 200m x 200m
2nd level aggregated GRID - 500m x 500m
3rd level aggregated GRID - 1000m x 1000m
DSS at the large scale
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10. 1st level aggregated GRID - 200m x 200m
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11. 2nd level aggregated GRID - 500m x 500m
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12. 3rd level aggregated GRID - 1000m x 1000m
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13. © C. Di Mauro 2012 13

14. De
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DSS info at the detailed scale
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1st level aggregated GRID
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2nd level aggregated GRID
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3rd level aggregated GRID
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1000m x 1000m
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DSS at the large scale
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15. Regional Ranking
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16. Characterization of the risks
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20. © C. Di Mauro 2012 20

21. Conclusion
 It is obviously not a simple task for decision makers to perform
overall planning and prioritisations to allocate public
resources to mitigate risk at regional scale.
 Nevertheless, resources must be allocated, and choices and
prioritisations must be carried out. To use such a principle first
of all means making the choices more explicit than
what is done today.
 It is difficult to make risk comparisons across different
territorial contexts without a systematic approach in
methodologies of risks assessment.
 Without a geographic comparison, it is difficult to prioritize the
geographic focus of risk reduction strategies.
© C. Di Mauro 2012 21

22. Conclusions
Conclusions
 Multi-RISK analysis is not simply based on the
SUM of a number of risk layers
A Decision-Support System has to allow
exploring the available information
© C. Di Mauro 2012 22

23. THANK YOU FOR THE
ATTENTION!
Ing. Carmelo DI MAURO
© C. Di Mauro 2012 23 23

24. Contributions
 Carmelo Di Mauro, Sara Bouchon
RGS Srl - Risk Governance Solutions, Italy
 Paolo Frattini, Serena Lari
Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche e Geotecnologie, Università degli Studi di
Milano Bicocca, Milano, Italy
 Marco Buldrini
NIER Ingegneria, Bologna, Italy
 Stefano Oliveri, Paolo Seminati
Ecometrics Srl, Brescia, Italy
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