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A Necessary Transformation
for South Africa
October 2, 2019
Venue: Permanent Representation of Sweden to the EU
Statistics
Global and Local
Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Ha (Bil)
Earth Surface 14,9 Ocean 36,1 TotalSurface 51,0
Habitable Land 10,4 Galciers 1,5 Barren Land 3,0 Total Land Surface 14,9
Agriculture 5,1 Forest 3,9 Shrubs 1,2 Urban 0,1 Fresh Water 0,1 Total Habitable Land 10,4
Crop Land 1,6 Grazing 3,5 Agricultural Land 5,1
Crop Land counts for 15,4% of Habitable Land Source OurWorld in Data 2016
South Africa Ha Mio % to Global
Habitable Land 121,9 0,8%
Agriculture 96,8 1,9%
Crop Land 12,9 0,8%
FAO Country Profile 2016
Ranking of RSA in Agricultural Land Size
Country Agricultural Land Grazing Crop Land
Ha Mio Ha Mio Ha Mio
1 China 529 393 136
2 USA 423 265 158
3 Australia 371 309 62
4 Brasil 284 196 88
5 Russia 218 93 125
6 Kazakhstn 218 187 30
7 India 180 10 169
11 RSA 97 83 14
51 Germany 17 5 12
103 Sweden 3 0 3
135 Belgium 1 0 1
Global Cropland/Capita
0
0.5
AGRICULTURALLAND/PERSON
Ha/Capita = 0.5
2016
1950
2050
= 9.7 Billion= 2.5 Billion
= 7.7 Billion
Ha/Capita = 0.2Ha/Capita = 0.2
Ha/Capita = 0.9
1950
= 13.6 Million
2016
= 54.5 Million
Ha/Capita = 0.2
1
Cropland = 12.9 Ha (Millions) Cropland = 12.9 Ha (Millions)
0
0.5
1
South Africa Cropland/Capita
Cropland = 1.2 Ha (Billions) Cropland = 1.6 Ha (Billions) Cropland = 1.7 Ha (Billions)
AGRICULTURALLAND/PERSON
The facts on land use
More than
75% of agricultural
land used for
rearing of livestock
Animal Feed
Production
Grazing land
(Hanna Ritchie& Max Roser 2019)
Crops
The facts on land use
Despite being
dominant in
land allocation
for agriculture…
(Hanna Ritchie& Max Roser 2019)
33%
GLOBAL
PROTEIN
SUPPLY
2
17%
GLOBAL
CALORIC
SUPPLY
…only provides…
Land use by crop and food type
Grown from 650 to 720 million hectares
(out of 1.6B hectares) over the period
1961-2014
Majority of global
arable land is
used for
cereal production
The total land area used for coarse
grain (other grain than wheat and
rice) has remained stable at 300
million hectares.
The facts on land use
…supply more calories and protein
for the global population than the
almost 4-times larger area used for
livestock.
(Hanna Ritchie& Max Roser 2019)
3
1.1 Billion
Hectare
used
for
crops…
1961 2014
Land use by crop and food type
The most dramatic increase in
land allocation is the production of
oil-crops (i.e rapeseed, sunflower)
raising from 100 to 300 million
hectares over the period, 1961-2014.
Other crops such as pulses, root and tuber crops, fruit, vegetables, Citrus and
Tree-nuts are allocated on the remaining 280 million hectares.
What determines
the amount of arable land we use?
In regard to dietary consumption the FAO is
using a Crop Production Index. This index
measures the ratio of crop production for
food, feed fuel, fiber, and tobacco to the
supply of food calories.
This means it provides a measure of how
much food is produced relative to how much
food is eaten (ie the efficiency of the system
in delivering food from the field to peoples`
plates).
• population
• dietary consumption
• food system dynamics
• productivity
Dietary Consumption
What determines
the amount of arable land we use?
…we reallocate more food towards feed
and fuel (renewable energy)…
IF…
… we would have to continue increasing
agricultural output to ensure food
supplies remain adequate.
THEN…
Looking Ahead
Soil Conservation
Breeding Technologies
Implementation of Digitalization
Implementation of Controlled
Environmental Agriculture Systems
Change in Dietary Patterns
My personal view is that there is a fair
chance to feed an even increased
global population under adverse
climatic conditions IF we focus on…
WATER USAGE
Open Field Crop Production
20 litres250 litres 6 litres
Greenhouse New Technologies
How do we help make this kind of transformation possible? EDUCATION

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A Necessary Transformation - The Basis for Innovative Vocational Training in South Africa

  • 1. A Necessary Transformation for South Africa October 2, 2019 Venue: Permanent Representation of Sweden to the EU
  • 2. Statistics Global and Local Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Form Ha (Bil) Ha (Bil) Earth Surface 14,9 Ocean 36,1 TotalSurface 51,0 Habitable Land 10,4 Galciers 1,5 Barren Land 3,0 Total Land Surface 14,9 Agriculture 5,1 Forest 3,9 Shrubs 1,2 Urban 0,1 Fresh Water 0,1 Total Habitable Land 10,4 Crop Land 1,6 Grazing 3,5 Agricultural Land 5,1 Crop Land counts for 15,4% of Habitable Land Source OurWorld in Data 2016 South Africa Ha Mio % to Global Habitable Land 121,9 0,8% Agriculture 96,8 1,9% Crop Land 12,9 0,8% FAO Country Profile 2016
  • 3. Ranking of RSA in Agricultural Land Size Country Agricultural Land Grazing Crop Land Ha Mio Ha Mio Ha Mio 1 China 529 393 136 2 USA 423 265 158 3 Australia 371 309 62 4 Brasil 284 196 88 5 Russia 218 93 125 6 Kazakhstn 218 187 30 7 India 180 10 169 11 RSA 97 83 14 51 Germany 17 5 12 103 Sweden 3 0 3 135 Belgium 1 0 1
  • 4. Global Cropland/Capita 0 0.5 AGRICULTURALLAND/PERSON Ha/Capita = 0.5 2016 1950 2050 = 9.7 Billion= 2.5 Billion = 7.7 Billion Ha/Capita = 0.2Ha/Capita = 0.2 Ha/Capita = 0.9 1950 = 13.6 Million 2016 = 54.5 Million Ha/Capita = 0.2 1 Cropland = 12.9 Ha (Millions) Cropland = 12.9 Ha (Millions) 0 0.5 1 South Africa Cropland/Capita Cropland = 1.2 Ha (Billions) Cropland = 1.6 Ha (Billions) Cropland = 1.7 Ha (Billions) AGRICULTURALLAND/PERSON
  • 5. The facts on land use More than 75% of agricultural land used for rearing of livestock Animal Feed Production Grazing land (Hanna Ritchie& Max Roser 2019) Crops
  • 6. The facts on land use Despite being dominant in land allocation for agriculture… (Hanna Ritchie& Max Roser 2019) 33% GLOBAL PROTEIN SUPPLY 2 17% GLOBAL CALORIC SUPPLY …only provides…
  • 7. Land use by crop and food type Grown from 650 to 720 million hectares (out of 1.6B hectares) over the period 1961-2014 Majority of global arable land is used for cereal production The total land area used for coarse grain (other grain than wheat and rice) has remained stable at 300 million hectares.
  • 8. The facts on land use …supply more calories and protein for the global population than the almost 4-times larger area used for livestock. (Hanna Ritchie& Max Roser 2019) 3 1.1 Billion Hectare used for crops…
  • 9. 1961 2014 Land use by crop and food type The most dramatic increase in land allocation is the production of oil-crops (i.e rapeseed, sunflower) raising from 100 to 300 million hectares over the period, 1961-2014. Other crops such as pulses, root and tuber crops, fruit, vegetables, Citrus and Tree-nuts are allocated on the remaining 280 million hectares.
  • 10. What determines the amount of arable land we use? In regard to dietary consumption the FAO is using a Crop Production Index. This index measures the ratio of crop production for food, feed fuel, fiber, and tobacco to the supply of food calories. This means it provides a measure of how much food is produced relative to how much food is eaten (ie the efficiency of the system in delivering food from the field to peoples` plates). • population • dietary consumption • food system dynamics • productivity Dietary Consumption
  • 11. What determines the amount of arable land we use? …we reallocate more food towards feed and fuel (renewable energy)… IF… … we would have to continue increasing agricultural output to ensure food supplies remain adequate. THEN…
  • 12. Looking Ahead Soil Conservation Breeding Technologies Implementation of Digitalization Implementation of Controlled Environmental Agriculture Systems Change in Dietary Patterns My personal view is that there is a fair chance to feed an even increased global population under adverse climatic conditions IF we focus on…
  • 13. WATER USAGE Open Field Crop Production 20 litres250 litres 6 litres Greenhouse New Technologies How do we help make this kind of transformation possible? EDUCATION