Presentation made at the 4th Workshop on Strategic Crisis Management (Paris, 28-29 May 2015). For more information, visit the meeting webpage: http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/4th-workshop-strategic-crisis-management.htm.

1. Europol’s position in
counter-terrorism
Paul Minnebo
Counter Terrorism Unit
Geneva – May 2015
Europol Unclassified - Basic Protection level / Europol Public Information

2. 2
EUROPOL: Supporting Law Enforcement
authorities, providing a platform for the
exchange and analysis of criminal intelligence
Seat: The Hague, the Netherlands
Staff: 850 personnel, including:
• 186 liaison officers (from EU Member States
and non-EU partners)
• 100 Analysts

3. Europol’s Main Functions and
Products and Services in General
Main functions:
1. Channel for the exchange of operational information
2. Support to on-going investigations
3. “Intelligence organisation”
Products:
Analysis Reports
• X-match & Operational and Strategic analysis
Threat / Risk Assessments
• Ad-hoc, by request or own initiative
Knowledge Products
• New developments / specific subjects
Mobile Office
• Analytical Assistance on the spot in operations in Member States
Experts assisting MS in person
• From the Hague or in situ (including ‘First Response Network’)

4. Investigation and intelligence: two
different functionalities
Supporting criminal investigations: focus on evidence and
prosecution:
• Responds to already reported events;
• Explains what did happen and who was involved;
• Low tolerance for false positives;
• Formal requirements for information collection;
• Sworn officers only;
• Tactical.
Intelligence: focus on insight:
• Is deliberately designed to allow for speculation about, and
prediction of likely (future) activities of criminal opponents;
• High tolerance for false positives;
• Multiple information collection methods;
• Also civilians as analysts;
• Tactical, Operational and Strategic.
4

5. Europol strategic analysis reports
SOCTA TE-SAT
• Threat assessment • Situation and trend report
• For prioritising • To inform
• Forward looking • Retrospective
• Restricted document & public version • Public document
• Every four years • Every year
5

6. TE-SAT Process
6
MEMBER
STATES
EUROPOL
EXPERTS
OPEN
SOURCES
DRAFT
REPORT
CORROBORATION BY
MEMBER STATES
ADVISORY
BOARD
MEMBER
STATES
FINAL
REPORT
QUALITATIVE INFORMATION QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION
EURO-
JUST

7. 77
Terrorist Acts: EU Definition
• Intentional acts, that:
• may seriously damage a country or international organisation, which aim to
• intimidate populations
• compel states to comply with the perpetrators demands and / or
• destabilise the fundamental political, constitutional, economical or social
structures of a country or an international organisation.
Source: Article 1 of the Council Framework decision on combating terrorism of 13 June 2002
(2002/475/JHA)

8. 8
• 4 people died as a result of terrorist attacks in the EU (7 in 2013, 17 in 2012)
• 201 terrorist attacks carried out in EU Member States
• 774 individuals arrested in the EU for terrorism related offences
Key Findings of the TE-SAT 2015:
General Overview 2014
Religiously Inspired 395
Left-Wing 54
Not Specified 137
Right-Wing 34
Separatist 154
Religiously Inspired 2
Left-Wing 13
Not Specified 118
Separatist 67
Single Issue 1
Arrests in 2014Failed, Foiled and Completed Attacks
in 2014

9. 9
Attacks Arrests
Austria 0 31
Belgium 1 72
Bulgaria 0 21
Czech Republic 0 1
Denmark 0 1
Finland 0 4
France 52 238
Germany 0 18
Greece 7 13
Ireland 0 27
Italy 12 39
Luxembourg 0 1
Netherlands 0 17
Poland 2 14
Spain 18 145
UK 109 132
Key Findings of the TE-SAT 2015:
Attacks and Arrests in 2014

10. 10
Key Findings: by Terrorist Affiliation
• Religiously InspiredTerrorism
• Four persons killed in a religiously inspired terrorist attack
• The scale of the phenomenon of individuals travelling to Syria and Iraq for
terrorist purposes is unprecedented
• Ethno-Nationalist and SeparatistTerrorism
• Dissident Republican (DR) groups’ activity remained high
• ETA’s logistical apparatus is assessed as still being operational
• The PKK keeps its presence among the Kurdish populations in the EU
• Left-Wing and Anarchist Terrorism
• Decline in violent left-wing and anarchist extremist activity in 2014.
• Terrorist attacks decreased in 2014 to 13: the lowest number since 2006
• Right-WingTerrorism
• A significant increase in anti-Semitic and anti-Islamic incidents across the EU
• No attacks classified as right-wing terrorism

11. Number of Attacks and Suspects Arrested for Ethno-
Nationalist and Separatist Terrorism in EU Member
States in 2014
11
Attacks Arrests
France 50 41
Germany 0 2
Ireland 0 27
Italy 0 9
Spain 17 75
United Kingdom (109) -

12. 12
Significant Increase in Arrests
for Religiously Inspired Terrorism
395
159
216
179
122

13. Arrests for Religiously Inspired
Terrorism in 2014
13
Member States Arrests
Austria 30
Belgium 71
Bulgaria 21
Czech Republic 1
Denmark 1
Finland 4
France 188
Germany 16
Greece 0
Ireland 0
Italy 11
Luxembourg 1
Netherlands 17
Poland 0
Spain 34
UK -

14. 14
Key Judgments and trends 1/4
• The overall threat to EU security will
likely increase
Main concern: jihadists travelling to and
from conflict zones
• The Islamic State and Al Qaeda
affiliated groups have the intent,
capability and resources to carry out
terrorist attacks against the EU and
the West
A significant number of terrorist plots
were thwarted by EU Member States in
2014.

15. Key Judgments and trends 2/4
15
• Attacks carried out by lone actors and
encouragement of small-scale attacks is on the
increase
In addition to individuals who act as members of a network,
or who benefit from a support network, radicalised lone
attackers pose an increasing threat – exacerbated by the
ongoing conflict in Syria and Iraq.
• Acts of violence by the Islamic State have the
potential to increase the number and
intensity of extreme-right wing activities

16. 16
Key Judgments and trends 3/4
• The trend of travelling for terrorist purposes to Syria and
Iraq continued in 2014
• In 2014, Member States reported an increase in women and
children travelling to the region also. This phenomenon may
eventually lead to the emergence of a new generation of
jihadist terrorists in Europe.
• The threat to EU citizens and interests abroad, in particular
in conflict zones, remains high
At least six EU citizens (non-combatants) were believed to have been
killed in Syria,Yemen, Afghanistan and Algeria over 2014

17. 17
Key Judgments and trends 4/4
• Increased numbers of incidents targeting symbols of
the Jewish faith indicate a presence of anti-Semitic
sentiments in the EU
Both right-wing extremist groups and religiously inspired terrorists have
included Jewish entities, such as cultural and religious institutions,
amongst their targets.
• The current situation in Libya and Ukraine may
ultimately lead to increased quantities of military
grade firearms and explosives becoming available to
terrorists in the EU
The historic conflicts inWestern Balkan countries in the 1990s led to an
abundance of firearms in EU Member States

18. 18
Nexus Organised Crime / Terrorist Groups?
Terrorist groups can, at times, resort to common crime to generate funds used
to cover the costs associated with the planning and execution of attacks such as
recruitment, procurement, travel.
Alternatively, terrorist groups may seek contact with common criminals or
organised crime groups to access greater financial resources, weapons,
transport means, specialist skills or a larger pool of potential recruits.
Though driven by different motivations, terrorist organisations and organised
criminal groups use similar tactics to achieve their objectives.

19. 19
Current Trans-National Terrorism Issues
in the EU
Catalysts / Influencing factors:
• Developments in MENA region;
• The role of social media in terrorism and violent extremism
Actors:
• EU citizens returning from conflict zones where they have
fought alongside jihadist terrorist groups;
• EU citizens who want to travel to conflict zones, but for some
reason are not able to
Some consequences:
• Serious threats to symbols of authority (police, military), free
press and Jewish population in the EU;
• Increased Sunni / Shiite tensions in Muslim communities in the
EU;
• The rise of anti-Semitism and anti-Islamism……

20. The First Three Months of 2015...
20
• Libya added to the conflict zones that pose an increased risk to
the EU;
• No decrease in foreign fighters travelling to and from conflict
zones;
• Already several attacks in the EU, or victimising EU citizens
abroad, by religiously inspired terrorists in first 3 Months of 2015
• Paris, January 2015: 12 + 4 people killed
• Tripoli (Libya), January 2015: 9 people killed
• Verviers (Belgium), January 2015: one foiled attack
• Copenhagen, February 2015: 2 people killed
• Tunis (Tunisia), March 2015: 22 people killed;
• 154 individuals arrested in the EU on charges related to
religiously inspired terrorism in the first 3 months of 2015.
• 19 EU nationals arrested for the same outside of the EU.

21. 21
Developments Within Europol
Justice and Home Affairs Council Meeting 12/13 March 2015:
• EU Internet Referral Unit (IRU)
• Enhanced information exchange
• Operational cooperation on illicit trafficking of firearms;
• European Counter terrorism Centre (ECTC);
• Siena+;
• Match3 application;
• Working Group DUMAS;
• Network of National Contact Points for foreign fighters

22. Europol’s Strands of Action in
Counter-Terrorism
22
• Foreign Fighters
• Terrorist Finance
• Firearms
• Internet
• International Cooperation

23. Thank you