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Updated Projections for the Federal Budget and the Economy

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Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Macroeconomic Advisers’ 25th Annual Washington Policy Seminar.

Updated Projections for the Federal Budget and the Economy

  1. 1. Congressional Budget Office Presentation at Macroeconomic Advisers’ 25th Annual Washington Policy Seminar Keith Hall Director CBO’s Updated Projections for the Federal Budget and the Economy September 9, 2015
  2. 2. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 1 Outlook for the Budget
  3. 3. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 2 Total Deficits or Surpluses
  4. 4. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 3 Federal Debt Held by the Public
  5. 5. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 4 Total Revenues
  6. 6. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 5 Revenues, by Major Source
  7. 7. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 6 Revenues and Tax Expenditures in 2015
  8. 8. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 7 Total Outlays
  9. 9. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 8 Projected Outlays in Major Budget Categories
  10. 10. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 9 Population, by Age Group
  11. 11. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 10 Spending for the Major Health Programs in 2025 and the Share of That Spending on People at Least 65 Years Old
  12. 12. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 11 Projected Net Interest
  13. 13. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 12 Defense, Nondefense, and Other Mandatory Spending
  14. 14. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 13 Total Revenues and Outlays
  15. 15. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 14 Spending and Revenues Projected in CBO’s Baseline, Compared With Actual Values in 1965 and 1990 Note: * = between zero and 0.05 percent.
  16. 16. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 15 Outlook for Economic Growth
  17. 17. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 16 Growth of Real GDP
  18. 18. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 17 GDP and Potential GDP
  19. 19. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 18 Contributions to the Growth of Real GDP
  20. 20. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 19 Real Total Compensation of Employees
  21. 21. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 20 Business Investment
  22. 22. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 21 Household Formation
  23. 23. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 22 Outlook for the Labor Market
  24. 24. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 23 Rates of Short- and Long-Term Unemployment
  25. 25. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 24 Underuse of Labor
  26. 26. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 25 The Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
  27. 27. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 26 Employment Shortfall The employment shortfall is the number of people who would be employed if the unemployment rate equaled its rate in December 2007 (the light blue bars) and if the labor force participation rate equaled its potential rate (the dark blue bars).
  28. 28. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 27 Labor Force Participation and Hourly Labor Compensation
  29. 29. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 28 Outlook for Inflation and Interest Rates
  30. 30. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 29 Inflation
  31. 31. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 30 Forecasts of Interest Rates by CBO, the Federal Reserve, and Federal Funds Futures
  32. 32. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 31 Interest Rates
  33. 33. CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE 32 Nominal and Real Interest Rates on 10-Year Treasury Notes *Calculated using the consumer price index for all urban consumers.
  • valeriaconstantinescu75

    Sep. 15, 2015
  • JoyKennethBiasong

    Sep. 10, 2015

Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Macroeconomic Advisers’ 25th Annual Washington Policy Seminar.

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