Presentation to the 2014 Fall Research Conference of the Association of Public Policy and Mangement, by Joyce Manchester, Vermont Legislative Joint Fiscal Office and formerly of CBO, Michael Simpson and Geena Kim, of CBO
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.
Presentation by Elizabeth Cove Delisle, an analyst in CBO's Budget Analysis Division, with Natalie Tawil, an analyst in CBO's Microeconomic Studies Division, to the Council of Large Public Housing Authorities.
In 2014, the federal government provided about $50 billion in housing assistance specifically designated for low-income households. This presentation describes the ways in which the federal government provides housing assistance to low-income households, provides information about the households that receive assistance, and lists some policy options for altering that assistance.
Presentation to the 2014 Fall Research Conference of the Association of Public Policy and Mangement, by Joyce Manchester, Vermont Legislative Joint Fiscal Office and formerly of CBO, Michael Simpson and Geena Kim, of CBO
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.
Presentation by Elizabeth Cove Delisle, an analyst in CBO's Budget Analysis Division, with Natalie Tawil, an analyst in CBO's Microeconomic Studies Division, to the Council of Large Public Housing Authorities.
In 2014, the federal government provided about $50 billion in housing assistance specifically designated for low-income households. This presentation describes the ways in which the federal government provides housing assistance to low-income households, provides information about the households that receive assistance, and lists some policy options for altering that assistance.
Presentation at the Fifth Biennial Conference of the American Society of Health Economists, by Allison Percy, Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.
Under current law, CBO projects that economic activity will expand at a modest pace this year and then grow more slowly in subsequent years.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
Presentation by James Baumgardner, Ph.D., Deputy Assistant Director Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, CBO, to the 30th International Congress of Actuaries on April 4, 2014
This presentation provides information published in Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget (June 2012), www.cbo.gov/publication/43319
Presentation by Peter Fontaine, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to a Global Network of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting Sponsored by the World Bank Institute
Presentation by Damien Moore, CBO’s Assistant Director for Financial Analysis, at the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is a government-owned corporation responsible for insuring the benefits of 41 million people who participate in defined benefit pension plans provided by private employers. About 10 million of those participants are covered by plans offered by groups of employers; such plans are insured by PBGC’s multiemployer program. That program has drawn increased scrutiny from policymakers in recent years because of the high likelihood that it will not be able to meet all of its insurance obligations, potentially causing participants to lose insured benefits or putting pressure on the government to provide PBGC with greater federal resources. CBO has projected the claims on PBGC’s multiemployer program—which are likely to be relatively small in the coming decade but are projected to be much larger in the following decade—and has analyzed options for improving the program’s finances.
Presentation at the Fifth Biennial Conference of the American Society of Health Economists, by Allison Percy, Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Seminar on Forecasting at George Washington University.
Under current law, CBO projects that economic activity will expand at a modest pace this year and then grow more slowly in subsequent years.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, and Jeffrey Werling, Assistant Director of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the 2019 Social Security Technical Panel.
Presentation by James Baumgardner, Ph.D., Deputy Assistant Director Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, CBO, to the 30th International Congress of Actuaries on April 4, 2014
This presentation provides information published in Raising the Excise Tax on Cigarettes: Effects on Health and the Federal Budget (June 2012), www.cbo.gov/publication/43319
Presentation by Peter Fontaine, CBO's Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, to a Global Network of Parliamentary Budget Offices Community Meeting Sponsored by the World Bank Institute
Presentation by Damien Moore, CBO’s Assistant Director for Financial Analysis, at the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics.
The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) is a government-owned corporation responsible for insuring the benefits of 41 million people who participate in defined benefit pension plans provided by private employers. About 10 million of those participants are covered by plans offered by groups of employers; such plans are insured by PBGC’s multiemployer program. That program has drawn increased scrutiny from policymakers in recent years because of the high likelihood that it will not be able to meet all of its insurance obligations, potentially causing participants to lose insured benefits or putting pressure on the government to provide PBGC with greater federal resources. CBO has projected the claims on PBGC’s multiemployer program—which are likely to be relatively small in the coming decade but are projected to be much larger in the following decade—and has analyzed options for improving the program’s finances.
They should not get carried away by over-enthusiasm in the market and should only invest in IPOs of good companies with reasonable valuations, says Jagannadham Thunuguntla
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Insurers are uniquely positioned to capture more customer data than most industries, if they use the information appropriately.
While much focus has been placed on business-to-consumer Web relationships, busienss-to-business applications carry the same advantages and application for insurers.
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The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2014 will
amount to $506 billion, CBO estimates, roughly
$170 billion lower than the shortfall recorded in 2013.
At 2.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), this
year’s deficit will be much smaller than those of recent years (which reached almost 10 percent of GDP in 2009) and slightly below the average of federal deficits over the past 40 years.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
CBO supports the Congressional budget process by providing the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBO produces work in two areas. First, it provides baseline economic forecasts over 10- and 30-year projection windows. Second, it analyzes the short-term and longer-term effects on the overall economy of some proposed changes in federal tax and spending policies. This presentation describes that work and provides recent examples of forecasts and analysis.
Presentation by Robert Shackleton, an analyst in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, at the NABE Foundation 17th Annual Economic Measurement Seminar.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg at the Peterson Institute for International Economics conference on Labor Market Slack: Assessing and Addressing in Real Time
CBO regularly publishes economic projections that are consistent with current law—providing a basis for its estimates of federal revenues, outlays, deficits, and debt. A key element in CBO’s projections is its forecast of potential (maximum sustainable) output, which is based mainly on estimates of the potential labor force, the flow of services from the capital stock, and potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector.
This presentation describes CBO’s most recent 10-year projections of potential output. It also discusses possible underlying causes for the slowdown of growth in total factor productivity.
CBO makes baseline economic and budget projections covering the next 10 years and also the next 30 years. The projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. To produce the 30-year economic projections, CBO uses its policy growth model, which relies on a standard economic framework that focuses on the inputs that drive growth in the supply side of the economy: the amount of labor, the productive services provided by capital, and total factor productivity.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
Revenues and spending as a share of economic output have varied over business cycles as a result of both changes in legislation and automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are the automatic increases in revenues and decreases in outlays in the federal budget that occur when the economy strengthens, and the opposite changes that occur when the economy weakens.
If current laws governing taxes and spending did not change, the condition of the federal budget would worsen considerably over the next three decades. Growth in federal spending would continue to outpace growth in federal revenues, leading to ever larger budget deficits.
Federal spending is projected to rise noticeably in relation to the economy because of growth in spending in Social Security, the major health programs, and interest on the government’s debt. Federal revenues would also increase if current laws remained generally unchanged, but they would increase much more slowly than federal spending.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 19th annual meeting of the Retirement Research Consortium.
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.
Presentation by Julie Topoleski, Chief of the Long-Term Analysis Unit in CBO’s Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, to the Social Security Advisory Board.
Both CBO and the Social Security Trustees project a shortfall in Social Security’s finances, but they differ in their assessment of its magnitude. This presentation describes that difference and the major factors that contribute to it.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
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role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
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Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
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1. Congressional Budget Office
CBO’s Outlook for the Economy
Presentation to the National Association for Business Economics
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Director
February 24, 2014
Notes for the slides can be found at the end of the presentation.
2. How will the labor market evolve?
How rapidly will potential output grow?
How rapidly will actual output grow?
What will be the paths of inflation, interest rates,
and the labor share of income?
What is the resulting budget outlook?
CBO
4. In our view, the slow recovery of the labor market
largely reflects slow growth in the demand for goods
and services, with a smaller role for structural factors.
We estimate that considerable slack remains in the
labor market.
The economy is about 6 million jobs short of where it
would be if the unemployment rate was back down to
its prerecession level and the participation rate was
back up to the level it would be without the current
cyclical weakness.
CBO
6. CBO estimates that…
Of the roughly 2 percentage-point net increase in the
unemployment rate between the end of 2007 and the end of 2013,
the portions that can be attributed to different factors:
Percentage Points
About 1
Cyclical weakness in demand for
goods and services
About 1
Structural factors
About 1/2
About 1/2
CBO
Stigma and erosion of skills
from long-term unemployment
Decrease in efficiency of matching
workers and jobs, at least partly from
mismatches in skills and locations
8. CBO projects that…
In 2024, the unemployment rate will be 5½ percent. The difference
of ½ percentage point relative to the rate of about 5 percent at the
end of 2007 can be attributed to:
Percentage Points
About 1/4
About 1/4
CBO
Stigma and erosion of skills from longterm unemployment (thus, the natural
rate of unemployment will be 5¼
percent)
Average historical shortfall of output
relative to potential
11. CBO estimates that…
Of the roughly 3 percentage-point net decline in the labor force
participation rate between the end of 2007 and the end of 2013,
the portions that can be attributed to different factors:
Percentage Points
About 1½
About 1
Cyclical weakness in job prospects
and wages
About 1/2
CBO
Long-term trends (primarily aging)
Discouraged workers who have
dropped out of the labor force
permanently
13. CBO estimates that…
In 2024, the labor force participation rate will be 60.9 percent. The
difference of roughly 5 percentage points relative to the rate of
about 65.9 percent at the end of 2007 can be attributed to:
Percentage Points
About 3½
A little under ½
Discouraged workers who have dropped
out of the labor force permanently
About 1
CBO
Long-term trends (primarily aging)
Affordable Care Act and real bracket
creep in the individual income tax
16. According to CBO’s analysis …
Average Annual Growth
1950-2013
Estimated
Potential GDP
3.3
2.1
Potential Labor Force
CBO
2014-2024
Projected
1.5
0.5
19. CBO projects, under current law, that …
The output gap will close from about 4 percent at the
end of 2013 to about ½ percent at the end of 2017
and in subsequent years.
Real GDP growth will average 2.5 percent per year
between 2014 and 2024.
CBO
30. Endnotes
Slides 3 through 15: For more information, see The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45011
and The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45010.
Slides 16 through 28: For more information, see The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024 (February 2014),
www.cbo.gov/publication/45010.
Slide 27: Major health care programs consist of Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and subsidies offered
through health insurance exchanges and related spending. (Medicare spending is net of offsetting receipts.) Other mandatory spending is all
mandatory spending other than that for Social Security and major health care programs.
CBO