SlideShare a Scribd company logo
The Asian Drivers and
Angola
Renato Aguilar
Gothenburg University, Sweden
Renato.Aguilar@economics.gu.se
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 2
Understanding a relationship
Several different approaches are important
for understanding the relationship between
Angola, on the one side, and China and
India, on the other side.
–The structure of Angola’s economy.
–The impact of oil markets.
–The evolution of trade.
–Angola’s financial problem.
–The political economy of this relation.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 3
The Structure of Angola’s
economy
A number of features of Angola’s economy
are crucial for understanding the new
relationship with Angola and India.
– Oil specialization.
– Macroeconomic instability.
– Financial problems.
– Relationship with the IMF.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 4
Oil Specialization
• Angola’s economy is mostly oil
Oil Non-oil Oil Non-oil
GDP Exports
93.7
6.3
48.3
51.7
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 5
Oil Markets
Three Different perspectives on Oil.
• China and Oil.
• India and Oil.
• Angola and Oil.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 6
China and Oil
• Increasing energy demand because of
rapid GDP growth.
• Strongly biased towards coal.
• Environmental considerations and
international pressure to move towards oil
and gas.
• In spite of improvements in the efficiency
of use of energy and oil, demand is
expected to grow at 4.5 percent annually.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 7
Angola and Oil
• Already the second largest African
producer.
• Reserves: 5.4 billion barrels.
• Reserves increasing faster than depletion.
• A rather well managed sector.
• A large state-owned firm, SONANGOL, a
main player in this market and the
regulator.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 8
The Asian Drivers in
Angola’s Oil.
• China is already Angola’s second
customer, and Angola a large provider for
China.
• India has no significant imports from
Angola.
• China is a junior partner in two blocks.
• India failed to acquire a participation in a
block.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 9
Trade
• Angola’s exports are almost exclusively oil, diamonds, and gas.
• The main customer is the U.S. (decreasing followed by China
(increasing) and the EU (decreasing).
• An increased diversification in exports
US
China
EU
South Africa
Korea
Other
US
China
EU
South Africa
Korea
Other
1977 2004
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 10
• Imports are also increasing rapidly.
• China and India have increased their shares. But also
Brazil. The EU has a decreasing share (exception
Portugal) and more recently South Africa.
• An increased diversification.
China
US
India
EU
Other
South Africa
Brazil
China
US
India
EU
Other
South Africa
Brazil
1997 2004
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 11
Financial Problems
• External Debt.
– Not too large (less than GDP).
– Short Profile. Mostly arrears and short-term
loans.
– Unable too reach an agreement with the Paris
Club.
• Angola is excluded from concessional
financing. It has to borrow expensively in
secondary markets, against oil.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 12
Chinese Finance and Investments
• A 2.billion credit with a 17-year maturity,
including a 5-year period of grace, and a
1.5 percent interest rate per annum.
• This is an Eximbank credit that excludes
non-Chinese providers. Thus, the real cost
is bit higher, but still much cheaper than
usual financing to Angola.
• A few direct investments, mostly in trade
and industry.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 13
Conclusions
• The empirical evidence suggest that India
and, especially, China are rapidly
increasing their shares in Angola’s
markets.
• To some extent this is a natural
consequence of the rapid growth of two
quite large economies.
• This is also happening in other markets
around the world.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 14
Especial features of this process.
• This process is faster in Angola than
elsewhere. But Angola is through a period
of rapid growth and structural change).
• Especially in the case of China it has a
strong financial dimension. But Angola has
serious financial problems.
• There is an investment dimension.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 15
How important is this for Angola?
• Both China and India provide financing for a
strategically important purpose: infrastructure
recovery and agricultural development.
• This financing was provided when most of the
concessional financial sources were closed.
• Increased trade with China and India has led to
a more diversified trade.
• The losers have been mostly the EU (exception:
Portugal) and, possibly, South Africa and other
African partners.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 16
Are China and India playing an
important role in Angola?
• China has only a junior position in two blocks
and India a minor position in the diamonds
sector. This is unlikely to increase to significant
positions.
• Angola’s economic leadership has a decreasing
interest in reaching a agreement with the IMF
and the Paris Club, because the financing
sources found in China and India, but also in
Brazil and other non Paris Club countries.
March, 2006 R. Aguilar 17
Possible risks
• The conditionality is different with the new
partners.
– There is “some” conditionality: Clear rules and
controls for payments and use of the funds.
– Conditionality with the older partners was not unique
and not necessarily consistent. Monitoring was poor
and unsystematic.
– The leverage was small because the funds were
small as compared to the needs.
• Effect on poverty unknown but possibly positive.

More Related Content

Similar to 36344264.ppt

Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016
Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016 Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016
Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016
paul young cpa, cga
 
Economic Evaluation
Economic EvaluationEconomic Evaluation
Economic Evaluation
Anika Rahman
 
An analysis of India and UK
An analysis of India and UKAn analysis of India and UK
An analysis of India and UK
Chad Moore, MBA
 
Lesson 2a & b political and economic players in globalisation
Lesson 2a & b   political and economic players in globalisationLesson 2a & b   political and economic players in globalisation
Lesson 2a & b political and economic players in globalisation
James Foster
 
Macroeconomics - JAPAN
Macroeconomics - JAPANMacroeconomics - JAPAN
Macroeconomics - JAPAN
Arveen Shaheel
 
Issue_1_3
Issue_1_3Issue_1_3
Issue_1_3
Matthew Ingram
 
G8 Summit - 2o13
G8 Summit - 2o13G8 Summit - 2o13
G8 Summit - 2o13
Denny Setiady
 
Trade and investments, markets and governments in APEC
Trade and investments, markets and governments in APECTrade and investments, markets and governments in APEC
Trade and investments, markets and governments in APEC
Bienvenido "Nonoy" Oplas, Jr.
 
Trade relations US & India; the changing faces
Trade relations US & India; the changing facesTrade relations US & India; the changing faces
Trade relations US & India; the changing faces
Charmi Chokshi
 
Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...
Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...
Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...
oilandgas
 
Jp us relations
Jp us relationsJp us relations
Jp us relations
jcmrarejob
 
Latinamerica iee7
Latinamerica iee7Latinamerica iee7
Japans Economy Oleh Bilyy
Japans Economy Oleh BilyyJapans Economy Oleh Bilyy
Japans Economy Oleh Bilyy
bilyy oleh
 
Role of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical Industry
Role of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical IndustryRole of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical Industry
Role of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical Industry
Tatva chintan Pharma Chem Pvt Ltd
 
News file 8
News file 8News file 8
News file 8
poojakhullar
 
Economy of JAPAN
Economy of JAPANEconomy of JAPAN
Economy of JAPAN
Ria Nicole Bondad
 
Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...
Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...
Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...
Hoonjae Gwak
 
Economics japan
Economics   japanEconomics   japan
Economics japan
Rahul Hedau
 
Economic development1ppt
Economic development1pptEconomic development1ppt
Economic development1ppt
dpsaligarh
 
Wp933 japan report 2008
Wp933 japan report 2008Wp933 japan report 2008
Wp933 japan report 2008
asia_matters
 

Similar to 36344264.ppt (20)

Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016
Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016 Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016
Global Market Outlook - WE May 16 2016
 
Economic Evaluation
Economic EvaluationEconomic Evaluation
Economic Evaluation
 
An analysis of India and UK
An analysis of India and UKAn analysis of India and UK
An analysis of India and UK
 
Lesson 2a & b political and economic players in globalisation
Lesson 2a & b   political and economic players in globalisationLesson 2a & b   political and economic players in globalisation
Lesson 2a & b political and economic players in globalisation
 
Macroeconomics - JAPAN
Macroeconomics - JAPANMacroeconomics - JAPAN
Macroeconomics - JAPAN
 
Issue_1_3
Issue_1_3Issue_1_3
Issue_1_3
 
G8 Summit - 2o13
G8 Summit - 2o13G8 Summit - 2o13
G8 Summit - 2o13
 
Trade and investments, markets and governments in APEC
Trade and investments, markets and governments in APECTrade and investments, markets and governments in APEC
Trade and investments, markets and governments in APEC
 
Trade relations US & India; the changing faces
Trade relations US & India; the changing facesTrade relations US & India; the changing faces
Trade relations US & India; the changing faces
 
Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...
Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...
Alex vines's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies C...
 
Jp us relations
Jp us relationsJp us relations
Jp us relations
 
Latinamerica iee7
Latinamerica iee7Latinamerica iee7
Latinamerica iee7
 
Japans Economy Oleh Bilyy
Japans Economy Oleh BilyyJapans Economy Oleh Bilyy
Japans Economy Oleh Bilyy
 
Role of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical Industry
Role of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical IndustryRole of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical Industry
Role of Specialty Chemicals in Chemical Industry
 
News file 8
News file 8News file 8
News file 8
 
Economy of JAPAN
Economy of JAPANEconomy of JAPAN
Economy of JAPAN
 
Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...
Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...
Individual Thesis: Signs of Japanification In South Korean Economy - Threats ...
 
Economics japan
Economics   japanEconomics   japan
Economics japan
 
Economic development1ppt
Economic development1pptEconomic development1ppt
Economic development1ppt
 
Wp933 japan report 2008
Wp933 japan report 2008Wp933 japan report 2008
Wp933 japan report 2008
 

More from Gurumurthy B R

basic_rules.ppt
basic_rules.pptbasic_rules.ppt
basic_rules.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
3D_Printing.ppt
3D_Printing.ppt3D_Printing.ppt
3D_Printing.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
Gas Chromatography.ppt
Gas Chromatography.pptGas Chromatography.ppt
Gas Chromatography.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
damop_2005_gif.ppt
damop_2005_gif.pptdamop_2005_gif.ppt
damop_2005_gif.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
lecture3.pptx
lecture3.pptxlecture3.pptx
lecture3.pptx
Gurumurthy B R
 
vortrag070704.ppt
vortrag070704.pptvortrag070704.ppt
vortrag070704.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
verbrevs3.ppt
verbrevs3.pptverbrevs3.ppt
verbrevs3.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
American Revolutionppt.ppt
American Revolutionppt.pptAmerican Revolutionppt.ppt
American Revolutionppt.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
trs-7.ppt
trs-7.ppttrs-7.ppt
trs-7.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
ZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.ppt
ZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.pptZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.ppt
ZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
Immigrants in America.ppt
Immigrants in America.pptImmigrants in America.ppt
Immigrants in America.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
Lesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptx
Lesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptxLesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptx
Lesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptx
Gurumurthy B R
 
سادسةHistory_of_USA.ppt
سادسةHistory_of_USA.pptسادسةHistory_of_USA.ppt
سادسةHistory_of_USA.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
SJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.ppt
SJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.pptSJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.ppt
SJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
23634.ppt
23634.ppt23634.ppt
23634.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
nash_session1_e.ppt
nash_session1_e.pptnash_session1_e.ppt
nash_session1_e.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
Chapter 9.ppt
Chapter 9.pptChapter 9.ppt
Chapter 9.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 
GeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptx
GeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptxGeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptx
GeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptx
Gurumurthy B R
 
CPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptx
CPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptxCPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptx
CPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptx
Gurumurthy B R
 
03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt
03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt
03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt
Gurumurthy B R
 

More from Gurumurthy B R (20)

basic_rules.ppt
basic_rules.pptbasic_rules.ppt
basic_rules.ppt
 
3D_Printing.ppt
3D_Printing.ppt3D_Printing.ppt
3D_Printing.ppt
 
Gas Chromatography.ppt
Gas Chromatography.pptGas Chromatography.ppt
Gas Chromatography.ppt
 
damop_2005_gif.ppt
damop_2005_gif.pptdamop_2005_gif.ppt
damop_2005_gif.ppt
 
lecture3.pptx
lecture3.pptxlecture3.pptx
lecture3.pptx
 
vortrag070704.ppt
vortrag070704.pptvortrag070704.ppt
vortrag070704.ppt
 
verbrevs3.ppt
verbrevs3.pptverbrevs3.ppt
verbrevs3.ppt
 
American Revolutionppt.ppt
American Revolutionppt.pptAmerican Revolutionppt.ppt
American Revolutionppt.ppt
 
trs-7.ppt
trs-7.ppttrs-7.ppt
trs-7.ppt
 
ZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.ppt
ZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.pptZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.ppt
ZP394sample_ImmigrationPP.ppt
 
Immigrants in America.ppt
Immigrants in America.pptImmigrants in America.ppt
Immigrants in America.ppt
 
Lesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptx
Lesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptxLesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptx
Lesson 3 American History - 1800 through the Civil War(1).pptx
 
سادسةHistory_of_USA.ppt
سادسةHistory_of_USA.pptسادسةHistory_of_USA.ppt
سادسةHistory_of_USA.ppt
 
SJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.ppt
SJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.pptSJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.ppt
SJSUIntroSocTischlerChap8PPT.ppt
 
23634.ppt
23634.ppt23634.ppt
23634.ppt
 
nash_session1_e.ppt
nash_session1_e.pptnash_session1_e.ppt
nash_session1_e.ppt
 
Chapter 9.ppt
Chapter 9.pptChapter 9.ppt
Chapter 9.ppt
 
GeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptx
GeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptxGeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptx
GeographyReview29_3Poverty.pptx
 
CPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptx
CPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptxCPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptx
CPRReportLaunch-Presentation-Sweden-010914-2.pptx
 
03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt
03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt
03-12-13Child Poverty.ppt
 

Recently uploaded

AI-Based Home Security System : Home security
AI-Based Home Security System : Home securityAI-Based Home Security System : Home security
AI-Based Home Security System : Home security
AIRCC Publishing Corporation
 
2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt
2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt
2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt
abdatawakjira
 
AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...
AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...
AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...
Paris Salesforce Developer Group
 
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptx
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptxSENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptx
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptx
b0754201
 
LLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by Anant
LLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by AnantLLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by Anant
LLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by Anant
Anant Corporation
 
原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样
ydzowc
 
Generative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdf
Generative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdfGenerative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdf
Generative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdf
mahaffeycheryld
 
Supermarket Management System Project Report.pdf
Supermarket Management System Project Report.pdfSupermarket Management System Project Report.pdf
Supermarket Management System Project Report.pdf
Kamal Acharya
 
Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...
Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...
Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...
shadow0702a
 
NATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENT
NATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENTNATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENT
NATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENT
Addu25809
 
ITSM Integration with MuleSoft.pptx
ITSM  Integration with MuleSoft.pptxITSM  Integration with MuleSoft.pptx
ITSM Integration with MuleSoft.pptx
VANDANAMOHANGOUDA
 
Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...
Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...
Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...
ijseajournal
 
4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf
4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf
4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf
Gino153088
 
Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...
Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...
Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...
PriyankaKilaniya
 
Accident detection system project report.pdf
Accident detection system project report.pdfAccident detection system project report.pdf
Accident detection system project report.pdf
Kamal Acharya
 
Data Driven Maintenance | UReason Webinar
Data Driven Maintenance | UReason WebinarData Driven Maintenance | UReason Webinar
Data Driven Maintenance | UReason Webinar
UReason
 
UNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICS
UNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICSUNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICS
UNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICS
vmspraneeth
 
一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理
upoux
 
Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...
Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...
Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...
Prakhyath Rai
 
P5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civil
P5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civilP5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civil
P5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civil
AnasAhmadNoor
 

Recently uploaded (20)

AI-Based Home Security System : Home security
AI-Based Home Security System : Home securityAI-Based Home Security System : Home security
AI-Based Home Security System : Home security
 
2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt
2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt
2. protection of river banks and bed erosion protection works.ppt
 
AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...
AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...
AI + Data Community Tour - Build the Next Generation of Apps with the Einstei...
 
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptx
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptxSENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptx
SENTIMENT ANALYSIS ON PPT AND Project template_.pptx
 
LLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by Anant
LLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by AnantLLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by Anant
LLM Fine Tuning with QLoRA Cassandra Lunch 4, presented by Anant
 
原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样
原版制作(Humboldt毕业证书)柏林大学毕业证学位证一模一样
 
Generative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdf
Generative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdfGenerative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdf
Generative AI Use cases applications solutions and implementation.pdf
 
Supermarket Management System Project Report.pdf
Supermarket Management System Project Report.pdfSupermarket Management System Project Report.pdf
Supermarket Management System Project Report.pdf
 
Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...
Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...
Use PyCharm for remote debugging of WSL on a Windo cf5c162d672e4e58b4dde5d797...
 
NATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENT
NATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENTNATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENT
NATURAL DEEP EUTECTIC SOLVENTS AS ANTI-FREEZING AGENT
 
ITSM Integration with MuleSoft.pptx
ITSM  Integration with MuleSoft.pptxITSM  Integration with MuleSoft.pptx
ITSM Integration with MuleSoft.pptx
 
Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...
Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...
Call For Paper -3rd International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Advan...
 
4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf
4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf
4. Mosca vol I -Fisica-Tipler-5ta-Edicion-Vol-1.pdf
 
Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...
Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...
Prediction of Electrical Energy Efficiency Using Information on Consumer's Ac...
 
Accident detection system project report.pdf
Accident detection system project report.pdfAccident detection system project report.pdf
Accident detection system project report.pdf
 
Data Driven Maintenance | UReason Webinar
Data Driven Maintenance | UReason WebinarData Driven Maintenance | UReason Webinar
Data Driven Maintenance | UReason Webinar
 
UNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICS
UNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICSUNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICS
UNIT 4 LINEAR INTEGRATED CIRCUITS-DIGITAL ICS
 
一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理
一比一原版(uofo毕业证书)美国俄勒冈大学毕业证如何办理
 
Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...
Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...
Software Engineering and Project Management - Software Testing + Agile Method...
 
P5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civil
P5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civilP5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civil
P5 Working Drawings.pdf floor plan, civil
 

36344264.ppt

  • 1. The Asian Drivers and Angola Renato Aguilar Gothenburg University, Sweden Renato.Aguilar@economics.gu.se
  • 2. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 2 Understanding a relationship Several different approaches are important for understanding the relationship between Angola, on the one side, and China and India, on the other side. –The structure of Angola’s economy. –The impact of oil markets. –The evolution of trade. –Angola’s financial problem. –The political economy of this relation.
  • 3. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 3 The Structure of Angola’s economy A number of features of Angola’s economy are crucial for understanding the new relationship with Angola and India. – Oil specialization. – Macroeconomic instability. – Financial problems. – Relationship with the IMF.
  • 4. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 4 Oil Specialization • Angola’s economy is mostly oil Oil Non-oil Oil Non-oil GDP Exports 93.7 6.3 48.3 51.7
  • 5. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 5 Oil Markets Three Different perspectives on Oil. • China and Oil. • India and Oil. • Angola and Oil.
  • 6. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 6 China and Oil • Increasing energy demand because of rapid GDP growth. • Strongly biased towards coal. • Environmental considerations and international pressure to move towards oil and gas. • In spite of improvements in the efficiency of use of energy and oil, demand is expected to grow at 4.5 percent annually.
  • 7. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 7 Angola and Oil • Already the second largest African producer. • Reserves: 5.4 billion barrels. • Reserves increasing faster than depletion. • A rather well managed sector. • A large state-owned firm, SONANGOL, a main player in this market and the regulator.
  • 8. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 8 The Asian Drivers in Angola’s Oil. • China is already Angola’s second customer, and Angola a large provider for China. • India has no significant imports from Angola. • China is a junior partner in two blocks. • India failed to acquire a participation in a block.
  • 9. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 9 Trade • Angola’s exports are almost exclusively oil, diamonds, and gas. • The main customer is the U.S. (decreasing followed by China (increasing) and the EU (decreasing). • An increased diversification in exports US China EU South Africa Korea Other US China EU South Africa Korea Other 1977 2004
  • 10. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 10 • Imports are also increasing rapidly. • China and India have increased their shares. But also Brazil. The EU has a decreasing share (exception Portugal) and more recently South Africa. • An increased diversification. China US India EU Other South Africa Brazil China US India EU Other South Africa Brazil 1997 2004
  • 11. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 11 Financial Problems • External Debt. – Not too large (less than GDP). – Short Profile. Mostly arrears and short-term loans. – Unable too reach an agreement with the Paris Club. • Angola is excluded from concessional financing. It has to borrow expensively in secondary markets, against oil.
  • 12. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 12 Chinese Finance and Investments • A 2.billion credit with a 17-year maturity, including a 5-year period of grace, and a 1.5 percent interest rate per annum. • This is an Eximbank credit that excludes non-Chinese providers. Thus, the real cost is bit higher, but still much cheaper than usual financing to Angola. • A few direct investments, mostly in trade and industry.
  • 13. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 13 Conclusions • The empirical evidence suggest that India and, especially, China are rapidly increasing their shares in Angola’s markets. • To some extent this is a natural consequence of the rapid growth of two quite large economies. • This is also happening in other markets around the world.
  • 14. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 14 Especial features of this process. • This process is faster in Angola than elsewhere. But Angola is through a period of rapid growth and structural change). • Especially in the case of China it has a strong financial dimension. But Angola has serious financial problems. • There is an investment dimension.
  • 15. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 15 How important is this for Angola? • Both China and India provide financing for a strategically important purpose: infrastructure recovery and agricultural development. • This financing was provided when most of the concessional financial sources were closed. • Increased trade with China and India has led to a more diversified trade. • The losers have been mostly the EU (exception: Portugal) and, possibly, South Africa and other African partners.
  • 16. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 16 Are China and India playing an important role in Angola? • China has only a junior position in two blocks and India a minor position in the diamonds sector. This is unlikely to increase to significant positions. • Angola’s economic leadership has a decreasing interest in reaching a agreement with the IMF and the Paris Club, because the financing sources found in China and India, but also in Brazil and other non Paris Club countries.
  • 17. March, 2006 R. Aguilar 17 Possible risks • The conditionality is different with the new partners. – There is “some” conditionality: Clear rules and controls for payments and use of the funds. – Conditionality with the older partners was not unique and not necessarily consistent. Monitoring was poor and unsystematic. – The leverage was small because the funds were small as compared to the needs. • Effect on poverty unknown but possibly positive.