Gideon Skinner – Seçim Sonrası Politik Ortam Senaryoları

Araştırmada Yenilikler Konferansı, Innovation in Research Conference /4 Haziran 2015, 4 June 2015
Gideon Skinner, Research Director Ipsos MORI
Political polling
Three directions for the future:
1. Closer
2. Faster
3. Better

Getting closer to voters
Beyond the horse-
race

ELECTION UNCUT – A ONE-TO-ONE RELATIONSHIP WITH VOTERS
7,426 posts
across 340 forum
topics
c.2,000 members
from across the UK
Over 7,500 survey
responses

A TYPICAL WEEK COMBINING A RANGE OF TOUCHPOINTS
4

TRACKING ISSUES SUCH AS WHEN MEMBERS MADE UP THEIR MIND
DURING THE CAMPAIGN….
5
53
24
43
75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Week1
Week2
Week3
Week4
Week5
Week6
Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut Community
Base of British adult community members 18-75 surveyed online: Week 1 – 1500, Week 2 – 1355,
Week 3 – 1243, Week 4 – 1168, Week 5 – 1077, Week 6 - 1085
Have you definitely decided to vote for the X party, or is there a chance you may change your mind before you
vote?

OUR QUALITATIVE FORUMS AND LIVE CHATS ALLOWED US TO LOOK
DEEPER AT KEY THEMES AND POLICY ISSUES
6

ABLE TO BUILD UP DETAILED PICTURES ON KEY ISSUES
7
Word cloud based on 1243 survey responses from adults aged 18-75 from Election Uncut. 10th-13th April 2015
Removed common English words and single mentions, otherwise image shows unedited verbatim. Data is
qualitative and unweighted.
Source: BBC Ipsos MORI Election Uncut Community
67% agree ‘getting on the property
ladder is one of the most important
ways of getting on in life’
72% agree ‘local rents are too high’
and 70% that ’local house prices are
too high’
What’s the problem?
A possible solution?
69% agree ‘unless we build many
more new affordable homes we will
never be able to tackle the country’s
housing problems’
Base: 1243 UK adult online community members aged 18-75, surveyed online 10th
– 13th April 2015
51% think that issue of housing has
been discussed too little over the last
few years

CREATED INDIVIDUAL RELATIONSHIPS WITH VOTERS TO UNDERSTAND
THEIR DAILY EXPERIENCE OF THE CAMPAIGN THROUGH JOURNALS
Daisy has always voted Labour, but can’t
decide how she will vote in this election.
She would prefer a left of centre
government so looks towards the Green
Party and the SNP as alternate options -
she agrees with many of their policies such
as scrapping Trident and protecting the
environment
As the campaign progresses, Daisy goes off the SNP. While
she agrees with them on scrapping Trident, she is suspicious
of the party and thinks they will push for another referendum
with more MPs in parliament. Daisy does not agree with
Scottish independence. She’s also having doubts about
voting Green – they have no real chance of governing so is
this just a wasted vote?
In the end, Daisy thought it was best to vote for
Labour in the election; she was hoping for a Labour
and SNP coalition and thought this could work really
well. Having watched the election results come in
through the night, she was very disappointed with
the Conservative majority government. She does not
feel this reflects the politics in Scotland at all.

AND WE HAD FUN TOO – HELPING KEEP MEMBERS ENGAGED
9
Q: Complete the
sentence: A trustworthy
politician is…
“…a Loch Ness monster: a few people claim to
have seen one, but no one can prove it.”
“...a dead politician (and some of those may be
faking it to claim funeral expenses)”

The power of social media
Real-time results

Araştırmada Yenilikler Konferansı, Innovation in Research Conference /4 Haziran 2015, 4 June 2015 11
SOCIAL MEDIA BRINGS POSITIVES AND NEGATIVES
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor/King’s College LondonBase: 1,010 British adults 18+, 8th -10th February 2015
Social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter…
25%
40%
27%
31%
23%
14%
15%
7%
7%
7%
Strongly agree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree
…are giving a voice to
people who would not
normally take part in
political debate
…are making political
debate more divisive than
it used to be

BUT CAN’T IGNORE IT – ESPECIALLY FOR THE YOUNG
12
Base: 1,142, GB adults 18+, 6th – 16th February 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/King’s College London
37
19
15
10
11
7
4
2
32
37
21
14
26
8
13
9
2
31
TV debates
Newspapers
Election…
Social media
Leaflets
Opinion polls
Posters
Telephone calls
None of these
All 18-24
Which of these items, if any, do you think will influence your vote?

EVEN GIVING A GREATER SHARE OF VOICE TO POLITICS THAN
TRADITIONAL MEDIA?
13
21,844 12,282
John Major’s speech
on Labour/SNP deal
Anything about Kim
Kardashian
Source: Ipsos MORI; data collected through Crimson Hexagon social media analytics platformMentions identified in the UK, 20-26th April 2015

KEY BENEFIT – REAL TIME REACTION TO POLITICAL EVENTS
14
• Real time reaction of 50
undecided voters broadcast
live on the BBC News
Channel
• During the challengers’
debate: 22,340 individual
button presses over 90
minutes
• 48% positive vs 30%
negative presses

LIVE TWITTER DATA PROVIDED EVEN MORE DETAIL: 239,000 TWEETS
OVER THE DEBATE (2,500+ PER MINUTE)
15
Farage criticises studio audience
Leaders join together to criticise Cameron no show

Forecasting for turnout
Better predictions

Araştırmada Yenilikler Konferansı, Innovation in Research Conference /4 Haziran 2015, 4 June 2015 18
TURNOUT FALLING IN MANY COUNTRIES ACROSS THE WORLD

AND VOTERS AND NON-VOTERS ARE DIFFERENT
19
Non-voter Voter
18-29 30 20
29-49 40 38
50+ 29 42
Primary education 48 47
Some secondary 40 35
College + 12 18
Source: ISSP 2006 Average 37 Countries

IF YOU GET TURNOUT WRONG, YOU GET THE ANSWER WRONG
20
44 44 45 46 46 47 47
48
51 50 49 49 48 47 47 47
30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%
GenericCongressionalVoteShare
Turnout Level (by Likely Voter Model)
2012 TurnoutActual 2014
Turnout
2014 Generic Congressional Ballot by Turnout Levels
Democratic Vote
Republican Vote
Source: Reuters / Ipsos Poll;
Sept-Oct 2014

SO WHAT TO DO?
21
Approach Strengths Weaknesses
Past vote profile Past behaviours good guide
to future behaviours
What if behaviours change?
Subject to false recall
Indices/turnout filters Not tied to previous
behaviours – can combine
attitudinal and behavioural
variables for greater
accuracy
Danger of social desirability
bias/overclaim. May lack
precision.
Statistical forecasting
models
More sophisticated, allows
more granularity
Complex, also reliant on
analyst’s assumptions

ALTHOUGH LEAVES A QUESTION FOR OUR ROLE
22
Classic role Forecasters
Errors from incorrect
assumptions
Moving further from raw data
Modelling improves accuracy
Changing expectations
But what if modelling makes us
better?
Statistical theory
Representative sample
Snapshot of perception

gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
@GideonSkinner
Thanks for
listening!

Gideon Skinner – Seçim Sonrası Politik Ortam Senaryoları

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