Advice in an ageing society - Money marketing conference

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Presentation by David Sinclair at Money Marketing conference in Leeds in November 2013

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Advice in an ageing society - Money marketing conference

  1. 1. Advice in an ageing society David Sinclair, International Longevity Centre – UK @ilcuk @sinclairda The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  2. 2. ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today          think tank evidence based policy focussed balanced independent respected experts networked international The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  3. 3. Who are we? The ILC-UK was established in 2000 to explore and address the impact of our ageing society on public policy We have a global reach with 14 Members of the ILC Global Alliance. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  4. 4. Who do we work with? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  5. 5. Our focus is broad The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  6. 6.  Ageing society – More older people – More of the oldest old  Advice challenges – Small pots – RDR The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  7. 7. Growth in the number of oldest old The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  8. 8. How many centenarians are there?  There are currently 11,800 people in the UK who are currently at least 100 (DWP)  There are fewer than 100 people who are aged more than 110. (DWP)  In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England & Wales  Growth has been about 7% p/a http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/5832 685007/sizes/z/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  9. 9. Number of people currently alive who can expect to see their 100th birthday, by age in 2010 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  10. 10. Life is not easy for the oldest old  Three quarters of the oldest old suffer from limiting longstanding illnesses, and one out of three perceive themselves as being in poor health. (Tomassini C, 2005) http://www.flickr.com/photos/pondspider/4170990 903/sizes/m/in/photostream/  “almost 50% of men and women aged 80-84 report severe limitations in activities” (IFS, 2010) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  11. 11. And many find it difficult to do day to day tasks Sixty per-cent of over 90s report difficulties shopping for groceries, almost a quarter report difficulties making telephone calls and 35% http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocola te/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photostream/ report difficulties managing money. (Sinclair, 2010/ELSA) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  12. 12. A relatively high proportion live alone Of those living in private households, four in ten very old men and seven out of ten very old women live alone. One out of five very old people live in communal establishments. (Tomassini C, 2005). http://www.flickr.com/photos/sbeebe/5154169795/si zes/m/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  13. 13. Most centenarians consult their GP 98% of centenarians and near centenarians consulted a GP and received prescription medicine during follow up. (Roughead, http://www.flickr.com/photos/rwjensen/2288339230/sizes/m/in/photostream/ Kalisch et al, 2010) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  14. 14. Centenarians do use drugs heavily A study of 602 centenarians in Italy found that a very high proportion of this age group were users of drugs.      5% no drugs. 13% one drug a day 16% took 2 drugs per day 65% took three drugs a day 5.5% more than 3 drugs a day. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  15. 15. Some evidence of longer hospital stays Centenarians who had suffered from a hip fracture between 2000 and 2007 compared to a randomly selected control group of 50 hip fracture patients aged between 75 and 85. “the mean stay in acute orthopaedic wards for centenarians was 20.7 days and for the control group was 14.9 days”. The longer acute hospital stay in the centenarian cohort would amount to a mean extra cost of £ 2511 per patient. (Verma et al) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  16. 16. Depression  “23% of those aged 85 and over had levels of depressive symptoms indicative of clinical relevance”  “Almost 13% of men and women aged 80 and over had high levels of depressive symptoms in 2008-09 but not in 2002-03” (IFS, 2010) http://www.flickr.com/photos/junglearctic/300 2442666/sizes/m/in/photostream/ ELSA The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  17. 17. Falls  60% of interviewees aged over 90 had had a fall and that of these, 4 in five were unable to get up after at least one fall and almost a third had lain on the ground for an hour or more.  Call alarms were widely available but not used.(Fleming and Brayne, 2008; Cambridge City over 75Cohor. BMJ) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  18. 18. Poverty is a very real challenge  There is evidence that the oldest old (aged 85 and over) are, as a group, at greater risk of poverty than younger older people (aged 65-85)  Up to 10% of the oldest old have total net wealth of £3,000 or less. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  19. 19. Dementia among centenarians The prevalence of dementia-free survival past 100 years of age varied between 0 and 50 percent.” http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  20. 20. The oldest old remain the most excluded  Almost 38% of those aged 85 or older faced some kind of social exclusion, an encouraging decline of 10% from the 2002 levels  As people age, they are more likely to become more socially excluded than less  Almost two-fifths (38%) of those aged 85 and older were excluded from two or more domains of exclusion in 2008 http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkchocola te/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  21. 21. Quality of Life falls with age The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  22. 22. Cost of ageing In the UK: age-related spending is projected to rise from an annual cost of 21.3% to 26.3% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 5% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £79bn in today’s money). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  23. 23. Healthcare costs • In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in today’s money). • In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a rise of 1.1% of GDP. • Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because of the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of growing numbers with long term conditions. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  24. 24. Spending on health care will see the greatest increase of all age-related spending over the next 50 years Projected health care spending as a proportion of GDP The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  25. 25. Long term care costs • In the UK: spending on long term care is projected to rise between 2016/17 and 2061/62 from an annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59 (equivalent to a rise of around £14bn in today’s money). • EU spending on long term care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 1.8% to 3.4% of GDP between 2010 and 2060 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  26. 26. Increasingly living alone - isolation 50 per cent of the 1960s cohort will be living alone at age 75 compared with 37 per cent for the 1916-1920 cohort and 41 per cent of the 1940s cohort (Evandrou & Falkingham, 2000). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  27. 27. Many live independently  Substantial numbers of centenarians and nonagenarians continue to live independently in the community, either alone or with family members.  8% of those aged 90 and over were living in privately rented accommodation and 30% in socially rented accommodation. 2009 Understanding Society The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  28. 28. Living together is good for us  Those who moved from living alone to living as part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to those who stayed living alone;  Those who moved from being resident in a couple household to living alone were over three times more likely to become multiply excluded. For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is one of the most common reasons for starting to live alone. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. http://www.flickr.com/ photos/anabadili/296 3913137/sizes/m/in/p hotostream/
  29. 29. Impact of the global economic downturn EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between 2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 19972006. More difficult for the state to pay for longevity: Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake; more difficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in funding public pension systems And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in wages, or reductions in hours worked, make it more difficult to save adequately for retirement; Falls in value of pension pots; Price inflation has been high. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  30. 30. The squeezed middle age People in their fifties increasingly excluded from society  The number of people aged 50 plus being socially excluded from decent housing, public transport and local amenities has risen sharply  Over one in six people in their fifties (18%) were socially excluded in two of more areas of their life – up from 13 per cent in 2002. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  31. 31. Britons ageing quicker than their parents The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  32. 32. Will the baby boomers demand change? “They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.” The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  33. 33. Will the baby boomers demand change? “They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.” Dodge, 1962 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  34. 34. Some Opportunities The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  35. 35. Dependency is not inevitable Dependency is not inevitable and a ”considerable proportion of the centenarians maintain a good level of auto sufficiency for the basic performance of the http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/sizes/ m/in/photostream/ everyday life”. (Antonini et al, 2008) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  36. 36. Some of the oldest old become more active The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  37. 37. A move to prevention is vital  Prevention of ill health  Physical Activity  Smoking and alcohol consumption  Nutrition  Immunisation The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  38. 38. Getting housing right 1. Extra care housing is a home for life 2. Extra care translates into fewer falls 3. Extra care is associated with a lower uptake of inpatient hospital beds The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  39. 39. And how can we make new housing and communities aspirational? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  40. 40. Working longer – a solution? The longer that people spend in work, the longer they have to save for retirement and the shorter their retirement will be, relative to their working life. A later average age of exit can also increase the number of people in work, relative to the number who are retired, making it easier to fund pensions, benefits and health and care costs from current taxes. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  41. 41. We are working longer  Labour market participation at older ages (ages 55 to 64) is expected to increase within the EU from around 50% to around 67% between 2010 and 2060.  The average age of exit is also projected to increase from around 62 to around 64 within the EU and from around 64 to around 65 within the UK between 2010 and 2060. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  42. 42. Technology limited by imagination The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  43. 43. Fantastic developments in health I think there’ll be a cure for cancer one day. That we never thought we’d see…and Alzheimer’s. I would wish for a pill to cure everything… The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  44. 44. From patient/recipient to health consumer  More confident consumers of health with raising expectations rather than patients  More tests available over the counter  Greater access to information about conditions  Expectations to health become more focused on “fix it”, prevent it, cure it?  Growth in health tourism The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  45. 45. Developments in genetics The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  46. 46. Possible technology innovations to 2050 2010 2020 Artificial Intelligence entity passes A level Computer controlled hunger suppressant Artificial Intelligence causes redundancies Emotion control devices Full voice recognition PCs Viewers can choose film roles Tooth regeneration Listing of individual DNA Auto-pilot cars 2030 Digital mirrors 2040 2050 VR windows Self clean houses Face recognition doors Individual pollution credits Holographic TV Smart bath Active skin makeup Prison countries Human memory enhancement Wave energy =50% in UK Invisibility cloak Bionic Olympics Hydrogen fuel stations Circuits made with bacteria Global voting on some issues Global ID card Brain downloads Virtual holidays Thought input mechanisms widespread Nuclear fusion Self drive cars Virtual displays Disposable phones The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. Robocops Artificial brain Human memory downloads Humanoid robots beat national football team
  47. 47. Google knows! Location Based Services The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  48. 48. Summary  There is lots to worry about  But there are opportunities  What is the role for you? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  49. 49. Many thanks David Sinclair Head of Policy and Research International Longevity Centre Davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk 02073400440 Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  50. 50. Our focus is broad The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  51. 51. Summary Life expectancy continues to grow Public policy trends 4 reasons to worry Opportunities 6 final trends The policy role for Independent Age? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  52. 52. Life expectancy is increasing In the UK, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7 years for men and 6.7 years for women between 2010 and 2060. Within the EU, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7.9 years for men and 6.5 years for women between 2010 and 2060. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  53. 53. And we might be underestimating • The IMF warns that, based on past underestimations, it is possible that current global longevity projections could be underestimated. • If longevity projections are being underestimated, this could add between 1.5% to 2% of GDP to the annual costs of pensions in countries with advanced economies by 2050 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  54. 54. Public Policy on ageing over past 10 years  2003: Introduction of Pension Credit  2000s: Equalities Bill and Turner Commission dominated  2000s: 2 ageing strategies under Labour and one housing strategy The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  55. 55.  2010s: Social care funding and (since last year of Labour Government)  Housing strategy not followed up – but greater acceptance of importance of housing?  Growing recognition of real impact of dementia  Post election: NHS funding becoming more of focus for reform The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank Post election: Government removed DRA dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  56. 56. Impact of the global economic downturn EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between 2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 1997-2006. More difficult for the state to pay for longevity: Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake; more difficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in funding public pension systems And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in wages, or reductions in hours worked, make it more difficult to save adequately for retirement; Falls in value of pension pots; Price inflation has been high. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  57. 57.  Increasing debates on the cost and contribution of older people  Rights and responsibilities across the life-course  But public debate ill informed (my mum)  From older drivers to older workers, popular perceptions of old age remain too negative The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  58. 58. Quality issues a real concern (and have been for years).        Reformed/merged regulators “Bonfire of the quangos” Huge challenges in CQC Terrible examples of abuse Media focus on poor quality Liverpool Care Pathway Is quality improving? Challenging the media? But how can health/care be improved with no cash, more demand and limited incentvies to innovation. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  59. 59. Initial themes of current Government  Localism  Big Society  Open Government/Data transparency The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  60. 60. The devil is in the detail  Impact of RDR  Pensions regulations (pot follows member)  Equality regulations on goods and services/access to health  Liverpool Care Pathway The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  61. 61. Why should we worry? 4 reasons to worry – Oldest old – The cost of ageing – Isolation and exclusion – The squeezed middle aged But opportunities – Prevention (Vaccination nutrition pa) – Housing – Working longer – Health developments and new technology The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  62. 62. Growth in the number of oldest old The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  63. 63. How many centenarians are there?  There are currently 11,800 people in the UK who are currently at least 100 (DWP)  There are fewer than 100 people who are aged more than 110. (DWP)  In 1911 there were just 100 Centenarians living in England & Wales  The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank Growth 7% p/a dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  64. 64. Life is not easy for the oldest old  Three quarters of the oldest old suffer from limiting longstanding illnesses, and one out of three perceive themselves as being in poor health.  “almost 50% of men and women aged 80-84 report severe limitations in activities” (IFS, 2010)  Sixty per-cent of over 90s report difficulties shopping for groceries, and 35% report difficulties The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank managing money. http://www.flickr.com/photo s/pondspider/4170990903/siz es/m/in/photostream/ dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  65. 65. Health of the oldest old  A very high proportion of centenarians use drugs  Some evidence of longer hospital stays  23% of those aged 85 and over had levels of clinical depressive symptoms 60% of interviewees aged over 90 had had a fall and that of these, 4 in five were unable to get up after at least one fall  Dementia between 50% and 100% The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank  98% of centenarians and near dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. centenarians consulted a GP
  66. 66. Poverty is a very real challenge  The oldest old (aged 85 and over) are, as a group, at greater risk of poverty than younger older people (aged 65-85). Up to 10% of the oldest old have total net wealth of £3,000 or less. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  67. 67. The oldest old remain the most excluded  Almost 38% of those aged 85 or older faced some kind of social exclusion, an encouraging decline of 10% from the 2002 levels The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  68. 68. OAP recovering after getting trapped in bath for 5 days The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  69. 69. Cost of ageing In the UK: age-related spending is projected to rise from an annual cost of 21.3% to 26.3% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 5% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £79bn in today’s money). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  70. 70. Trends in healthcare As a result of a growing older population, increasing longevity and a greater coverage of public health care within the EU the pressure on public health care funding is likely to continue growing. Public health spending in the EU currently accounts for 14.6% of total government spending, around 7.1% of GDP. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  71. 71. Healthcare costs • In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in today’s money). • In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a rise of 1.1% of GDP. • Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because of the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of growing numbers with long term conditions. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  72. 72. Spending on health care will see the greatest increase of all age-related spending over the next 50 years Projected health care spending as a proportion of GDP The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  73. 73. Long term care costs • In the UK: spending on long term care is projected to rise between 2016/17 and 2061/62 from an annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59 (equivalent to a rise of around £14bn in today’s money). • EU spending on long term care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 1.8% to The Internationalof GDP between 2010 non-partisan think-tank 3.4% Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. and 2060
  74. 74. Pension costs • UK spending on public pensions (state pension, pensioner benefits and public service pensions) is projected to rise from an annual cost of 8.9% to 10.8% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62 (equivalent to a rise of £33bn in today’s money). These assumptions do not include consideration of the impact of a single-tier pension. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  75. 75. Increasingly living alone - isolation 50 per cent of the 1960s cohort will be living alone at age 75 compared with 37 per cent for the 1916-1920 cohort and 41 per cent of the 1940s cohort (Evandrou & Falkingham, 2000). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  76. 76. Living together is good for us  Those who moved from living alone to living as part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to those who stayed living alone;  Those who moved from being resident in a couple household to living alone were over three times more likely to become multiply excluded. For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is one of the most common reasons for starting to live alone. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. http://www.flickr.co m/photos/anabadili/ 2963913137/sizes/m /in/photostream/
  77. 77. Exclusion from Cultural Activities The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  78. 78. Exclusion from Local Amenities The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  79. 79. Exclusion from Decent Housing and Public Transport The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  80. 80. Exclusion from common consumer goods The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  81. 81. Access to banking  Almost ten per cent of older people do not have a current account  Among older people surveyed in 2002 and 2008, fifteen per cent of older people did not report having a current account The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank at both points. dedicated  Six to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. per cent of
  82. 82. The squeezed middle age People in their fifties increasingly excluded from society  The number of people aged 50 plus being socially excluded from decent housing, public transport and local amenities has risen sharply  Over one in six people in their fifties (18%) were socially excluded in two of more areas of their life – up from 13 per cent in 2002. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  83. 83. Britons ageing quicker than their parents The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  84. 84. Will the baby boomers demand change? “They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.” The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  85. 85. Will the baby boomers demand change? “They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.” Dodge, 1962 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  86. 86. Convenient myth of the elderly hedonist The elderly have had a recent makeover, as appears in the 70-is-the-new-50 cliche….The impression is one of elderly hedonists – more people in their 60s are getting divorced and starting a new life; line-dancing, gymnastics and dating agencies, going from holiday to holiday; concessions, free passes and cheap tickets. The OAP of yesterday has been transformed into the swinger who refuses to acknowledge ageing. In other words, the high-profile, fun-loving elderly consumer has become the contemporary emblem of old age. This is profoundly reassuring for the rest of us, and it conveniently dissimulates the image of those who live on into their ninth and 10th decade, consigned to the low-watt penumbra of the nursing home, or worse, the invisible "shut-ins", as they are sometimes called, those too timid to go out, who have lost confidence on the uneven pavements and dizzying shopping crowds; those afflicted by the mysterious paranoias of old age, trembling each time the doorbell rings and frightened of the unexpected telephone call; people whose days are marked by boredom and its twin, loneliness; the companionless meal, the ticking clock and the sound of the electricity meter in the stillness, while the winter dark presses against the windows by 4pm, the only company the school photograph of grandchildren with their cheeky smiles and lost milk teeth smiling against the blue background of a painted summer sky. Jeremy Seabrook http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jan/12/elderly-care-michaelparkinson The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  87. 87. Some Opportunities The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  88. 88. Dependency is not inevitable Dependency is not inevitable and a ”considerable proportion of the centenarians maintain a good level of auto sufficiency for the basic http://www.flickr.com/photos/driever/5525684658/siz es/m/in/photostream/ performance of the everyday life”. (Antonini et al, 2008) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  89. 89. Some of the oldest old become more active The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  90. 90. A move to prevention is vital  Prevention of ill health  Physical Activity  Smoking and alcohol consumption  Nutrition  Immunisation (NUDGE, COMPEL OR EDUCATE?) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  91. 91. Getting housing right 1. Extra care housing is a home for life 2. Extra care translates into fewer falls 3. Extra care is associated with a lower uptake of inpatient hospital beds The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  92. 92. And how can we make new housing and communities aspirational? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  93. 93. Dependency ratios are increasing (by 2060) From around four workingage people to around two working-age people for every person aged 65 (UK) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  94. 94. Working longer – a solution? The longer that people spend in work, the longer they have to save for retirement and the shorter their retirement will be, relative to their working life. A later average age of exit can also increase the number of people in work, relative to the number who are retired, making it easier to fund pensions, benefits and health and care costs from current taxes. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  95. 95. We are working longer  Labour market participation at older ages (ages 55 to 64) is expected to increase within the EU from around 50% to around 67% between 2010 and 2060.  The average age of exit is also projected to increase from around 62 to around 64 within the EU and from around 64 to around 65 within the UK between 2010 and 2060. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  96. 96. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  97. 97. Technology limited by imagination The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  98. 98. Fantastic developments in health I think there’ll be a cure for cancer one day. That we never thought we’d see…and Alzheimer’s. I would wish for a pill to cure everything… The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  99. 99. A significant association between internet use and perceived control in one’s life Uses the internet Yes No Total Strongly agree Moderately agree 551 (39.6%) 840 (60.4%) 1515 (51.6%) 1420 (48.4%) 1391 2935 Slightly agree 1545 (59.4%) 1058 (40.6%) 2603 Slightly disagree Moderately disagree Strongly disagree 636 (68.2%) 593 (77.3%) 296 (31.8%) 174 (22.7%) 932 767 268 (71.8%) 105 (28.2%) 373 Chi-Sq= 422.074, df = 5, P=<0.000 Table 1. Feels what happens in life is often determined by factors beyond control The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  100. 100. A strong association between the measure of internet use and measures of loneliness Uses the internet Yes No Total Hardly ever or never Some of the time 3764 (60.2%) 2489 (39.8%) 6253 1091(51.3%) 1037 (48.7%) 2128 Often 272 (37.4%) 456 (62.6%) 728 Chi-Sq= 166.556, df = 2, P=<0.000 Table 5. How often respondent feels lonely The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  101. 101. People who reported not using the internet were more likely to say that they ‘often’ felt isolated Uses the internet Yes No Total Hardly ever or never Some of the time 3683 (59.5%) 2503 (40.5%) 6186 1242 (52.6%) 1118 (47.4%) 2360 Often 198 (37.4%) 331 (62.6%) 529 Chi-Sq= 115.871, df = 2, P=<0.000 Table 6. How often respondent feels isolated from others The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  102. 102. We must recognise and maximise the contribution of age • Labour market participation at older ages is on the rise. • Carers of all ages contribute the equivalent of £119 billion every year in the UK. • Older consumers (aged 65 and over) spend on average, around £100bn per year. • Older people volunteer. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  103. 103. 6 other trends to think about  Urbanisation: In the developing world the share of older persons residing in urban areas will rise from about 56 million in 1998 to over 908 million by 2050  The care workforce (role for older people?)  Challenges of migration  Climate change/environmental change  Dementia  Affluenza (Debt/Obesity)  A growing culture of “othering” (fear of crime) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  104. 104. The policy role for Independent Age?  Housing; Care and advice; Isolation and exclusion  Look forward  Focus on the oldest old and most excluded OR prevention value of early intervention  Challenge stereotypes and ageism  Explore diversity (men; migration)  Challenge existing thinking The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank Challenge older people (ask difficult questions) dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  105. 105. Many thanks David Sinclair Assistant Director, Policy & Communications International Longevity Centre Davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk 02073400440 Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  106. 106. The cost of our ageing society European Commission 2012 Ageing Report Office for Budget Responsibility: Fiscal Sustainability Report, July 2012. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  107. 107. Dependency ratios are increasing (by 2060) From around four working-age people to around two workingage people for every person aged 65 (UK) From more than six workingage people for every person aged 65 and over to just over two working-age people for every person aged 65 and over (Globally) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  108. 108. Relatively fewer ‘working age’ adults (EU) The greater the old-age dependency ratio, the more pressure there is on state systems to fund pensions, benefits, and health and care costs for older people. Children Working-age Age 65 and over 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  109. 109. The challenge in some places is more severe 80 Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 15-64) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 IE UK NO DK BE LU SE FR NL FI CY EU15 AT EU27 EA17 CZ EE MT ES GR IT LT PT SI HU DE BG EU12 SK PL RO LV 0 2010 2010-2030 2030-2060 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  110. 110. Cost of ageing In the UK: age-related spending is projected to rise from an annual cost of 21.3% to 26.3% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 5% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £79bn in today’s money). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  111. 111. Pension costs • • • UK spending on public pensions (state pension, pensioner benefits and public service pensions) is projected to rise from an annual cost of 8.9% to 10.8% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62 (equivalent to a rise of £33bn in today’s money). These assumptions do not include consideration of the impact of a single-tier pension. EU spending on public pensions is projected to rise from an annual cost of 11.3% of GDP to 12.9% of GDP (2010 to 2060). Globally: IMF project that global spending on pensions could rise from an annual cost of 5.3% to 11.1% of GDP between 2010 and 2050 in advanced economies. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  112. 112. UK spending on pensions as a proportion of GDP to rise to 10.8% by 2062 12% State Pensions Pensioner Benefits Public Service Pensions 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2016-17 2021-22 2031-32 2041-42 2051-52 2060-61 2061-62 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  113. 113. Progress with pension reforms: spending 16 14 12 10 +2,3 p.p. (2009 AR) +1.5 p.p. (2012 AR) 8 6 4 2 -2 LV PL EE IT DK PT FR SE EL BG UK EU27 EA AT DE CZ HU FI LT NL ES RO IE NO SK MT BE SI CY LU 0 -4 2009 AR 2012 AR The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  114. 114. Healthcare costs • In the UK: spending on health care is projected to see the largest rise of all elements of age-related spending, rising from an annual cost of 6.8% to 9.1% of GDP between 2016/17 and 2061/62, a rise of 2.3% of GDP (equivalent to a rise of around £36bn in today’s money). • In the EU: spending on health care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 7.1% to 8.3% of GDP between 2010 and 2060, a rise of 1.1% of GDP. • Globally: it is difficult to project the costs of health care because of the lack of data from developing countries. But evidence of growing numbers with long term conditions. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  115. 115. Spending on health care will see the greatest increase of all age-related spending over the next 50 years Projected health care spending as a proportion of GDP The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  116. 116. Long term care costs • In the UK: spending on long term care is projected to rise between 2016/17 and 2061/62 from an annual cost of 1.1% to 2% of GDP, a rise of 0.9% of GDP59 (equivalent to a rise of around £14bn in today’s money). • EU spending on long term care is projected to rise from an annual cost of 1.8% to The Internationalof GDP between 2010 non-partisan think-tank 3.4% Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. and 2060
  117. 117. Spending on long-term care Projected spending on long-term care as a proportion of GDP The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  118. 118. Cost of education flat • In the UK: spending on education is projected to remain generally level between 2016/17 and 2061/62 at an annual cost of 4.5% of GDP. (NB Partly due to spending cuts in education announced in November 2011) • In the EU: spending on education is projected to reduce from an annual cost of The Internationalto 4.5% of GDP between 4.6% Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. 2010 and 2060
  119. 119. Costs of unemployment up in UK  In the UK: spending on unemployment benefits is projected to rise from an annual cost of 0.3% to 0.6% of GDP between 2010 and 2060 (equivalent to a rise of around £5bn in today‟s money). • In the EU: spending on unemployment benefits is projected to reduce from an annual cost of 1.1% to 0.7% of GDP between 2010 and 2060. Partly due to European Commission expectation that there will be a decrease in the structural unemployment rate. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  120. 120. Looking forward  Changes in longevity, fertility and migration  Trends in health care and long-term care  Labour market participation rates and labour market exit ages  The economy and GDP growth The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  121. 121. Changes in longevity Longevity is expected to continue increasing: Increasingly long lives impact the costs of pensions, health care and long-term care as individuals need to receive these benefits and services for longer. Globally, life expectancy at birth is projected to increase by 13 years during this century from 68 years in 2005/10 to 81 years in 2095/2100. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  122. 122. Life expectancy is increasing In the UK, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7 years for men and 6.7 years for women between 2010 and 2060. Within the EU, life expectancy at birth is expected to increase by 7.9 years for men and 6.5 years for women between 2010 and 2060. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  123. 123. And we might be underestimating  The projected costs of ageing will be higher if people live for longer than current longevity projections indicate. • The IMF warns that, based on past underestimations, it is possible that current global longevity projections could be underestimated. • If longevity projections are being underestimated, this could add between 1.5% to 2% of GDP to the annual costs of pensions in countries with advanced economies by 2050 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  124. 124. Fertility rates are below replacement rate • Fertility rates are increasing but are still lower than a 100% replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman per lifetime in the EU and the UK • A reduction in fertility relative to the rest of the population has implications for future proportions of working-age people to older people. • Global fertility rates are currently at 2.47 births per woman. • The UK has a fertility rate higher than the EU average, at 1.94 in 2010, which is projected to fall to 1.91 by 2060 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  125. 125. Impact of the global economic downturn EU GDP growth is expected to be 1.4% per year between 2010 and 2060 compared to 2.5% for the 10 years 1997-2006. More difficult for the state to pay for longevity: Employment and productivity falling; falling tax intake; more difficult to meet debt obligations; difficulties in funding public pension systems And for the individual: Unemployment, reductions in wages, or reductions in hours worked, make it more difficult to save adequately for retirement; Falls in value of pension pots; The value of a pension annuity has decreased; Price inflation has been high, especially for pensioners who spend the majority of their income on basic goods and services (eg food and energy) which experience greater inflation. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  126. 126. Potential growth rates decline Productivity (+1.5 %) becomes the dominant source of growth Potential GDP growth - EU27 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 2009 AR 2060 2058 2056 2054 2052 2050 2048 2046 2044 2042 2040 2038 2036 2034 2032 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 0.0 2012 AR The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  127. 127. Trends in healthcare As a result of a growing older population, increasing longevity and a greater coverage of public health care within the EU the pressure on public health care funding is likely to continue growing. Public health spending in the EU currently accounts for 14.6% of total government spending, around 7.1% of GDP. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  128. 128. Working longer – a solution? The longer that people spend in work, the longer they have to save for retirement and the shorter their retirement will be, relative to their working life. A later average age of exit can also increase the number of people in work, relative to the number who are retired, making it easier to fund pensions, benefits and health and care costs from current taxes. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  129. 129. We are working longer  Labour market participation at older ages (ages 55 to 64) is expected to increase within the EU from around 50% to around 67% between 2010 and 2060.  The average age of exit is also projected to increase from around 62 to around 64 within the EU and from around 64 to around 65 within the UK between 2010 and 2060. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  130. 130. Ageing or retirement problem ? Adult life spent in retirement EU27 Men Wom en 2010 2060 2010 2060 Em ploym ent rate of older w orkers (55-64) 54.5 66.7 38.6 60.3 Average entry age 21.6 21.6 23.6 23.6 Average exit age 62.5 64.3 61.7 63.8 Life expectancy at the tim e of w ithdraw al 18.9 22.7 22.7 26.0 % of adult life spent in retirem ent Requested exit postponem ent in years (to keep % life spent in retirem ent constant) 31.7 34.7 37.4 39.3 2.0 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. 1.3
  131. 131. Must address worklessness across lifecourse • A low old-age dependency ratio does not necessarily mean that the burden on working people is reduced unless many of the people of working-age are actually in work • Another way of measuring the degree of dependency in a country is by looking at proportion of people who are not in work as a proportion of the total population. (Labour Market Adjusted Ratios) • In the UK 42.6% of the population were not in work in 2010. This is expected to increase to 47.5% by 2050. Within the EU as a whole, the proportion of the population out of work is expected to grow from 47.7% in 2010 to 56.3% in 2050.26 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  132. 132. Can migration help mitigate the cost of ageing? YES  Migration affects population size and can reduce dependency ratios (depending on agestructure of migrants)  The UK is expected to receive around 8.6m net migrants over the next 50 years  The EU is expected to receive around 60.7m net migrants over the next 50 years BUT • The EU would require a far greater level of net migration to maintain the current dependency ratio (an extra 11 million migrants by 2020). The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  133. 133. What else do we need to do? • Governments need to prepare for uncertainty • Governments need to ensure pension systems are sustainable, allow for greater risk-sharing, and are less vulnerable to longevity risk • Linking retirement ages to life expectancy can help protect pension system sustainability • Across the world, people will need to continue to work longer • Policies must focus on enabling active, healthy ageing rather than just tackling the costs of ageing The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  134. 134. What else do we need to do? • Countries need to ensure there are safety nets for those who cannot work longer • Governments across the world should consider how to create better conditions for health care innovation and development • If governments were to introduce legislation restricting the inward flow of migration the dependency ratio could be increased beyond current projection levels • Addressing the needs of ageing populations will require ongoing investment in research and data collection The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  135. 135. What else do we need to do? • Efforts need to be put in to tackle unemployment amongst those of working age. People in particular groups such as women and people at risk of social exclusion are more likely to be unemployed. • Governments might wish to look at ways of helping women with children to be able to remain in the workforce, through development of child-care programmes and work with employers to ensure fathers can contribute more to raising children and women are not penalised for taking career breaks. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  136. 136. We must recognise and maximise the contribution of age • Labour market participation at older ages is on the rise. • Carers of all ages contribute the equivalent of £119 billion every year in the UK) • Older consumers (aged 65 and over) spend on average, around £100bn per year. • Older people volunteer The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  137. 137. We can tackle the challenges of the cost of ageing But is there the political and social will? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  138. 138. Multiple issues, multiple solutions David Sinclair, International Longevity Centre – UK @sinclairda @ilcuk The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  139. 139. Summary  Dr Dylan Kneale  Using data from English Longitudinal Study of Ageing  What is Social Exclusion and why are older people at risk  How has exclusion changed 2002-2008  Who is most likely to be excluded  Trends and key findings  Recommendations The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  140. 140. What is social exclusion? • Broadest sense  Recognition of material/non-material link • No, Arguably apolitical with a rich academic history • UN, Europe…UK? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  141. 141. Social Exclusion Decent Housing and Public Transport Financial Products Social Relationships Cultural Activities Civic Activities and Access to information Local Amenities Consumer goods The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  142. 142. Why might older people be at risk from exclusion?/multiple exclusion  characteristics that are more likely to occur in later life, such as disability, low income and widowhood  cumulative disadvantage, where cohorts become more unequal over time  community characteristics which make older people more vulnerable e.g. population turnover, economic decline and crime  experience of age-based discrimination. (based on Philipson and Scharf, 2004) http://www.flickr.com/photos/ driever/5525684658/sizes/m /in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  143. 143. Exclusion from Social Relationships The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  144. 144. Exclusion from Cultural Activities The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  145. 145. Exclusion from Civic Activities/Access to Information The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  146. 146. Exclusion from Local Amenities The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  147. 147. Exclusion from Decent Housing and Public Transport The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  148. 148. Exclusion from common consumer goods The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  149. 149. Exclusion from financial products The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  150. 150. Access to banking  Almost ten per cent of older people do not have a current account  Among older people surveyed in 2002 and 2008, fifteen per cent of older people did not report having a current account at both points.  Six per cent of older people who reported a current account in 2002 no longer did so in 2008. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  151. 151. Exclusion grows for oldest old and ethnic minorities  Between 2002 and 2008, 9.3 per cent of people aged 80 plus became excluded from financial products compared to only 2.1 per cent of those aged 50-59.  Older people from ethnic minorities were more likely to be excluded from financial products.  In 2008, the odds of an older person from an ethnic minority being excluded from financial products were three times higher than the odds of a white older person. http://www.flickr.com/ photos/pondspider/41 70990903/sizes/m/in/ photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  152. 152. So how has exclusion changed? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  153. 153. And what about multiple exclusion The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  154. 154. Exclusion isn’t inevitable by age The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  155. 155. What about those not excluded? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  156. 156. Who is most likely to be excluded?  Older men were significantly more likely to be excluded from social relationships while older women were more likely to be excluded from cultural activities.  Being non-white was associated with a higher risk of experiencing some form of exclusion compared to being white (59.8% compared to 47.3%). http://www.flickr.com/photos/drieve r/5525684658/sizes/m/in/photostre am/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  157. 157. Who is most likely to be excluded?  Wealthy older people are much less likely to be socially excluded than their poorer counterparts  Becoming a care giver between 2002 and 2008 was associated with a two fold increase in the odds of becoming excluded from two or more domains of social http://www.flickr.com/photos/sbeebe/515 4169795/sizes/m/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  158. 158. Other trends and key findings  Living together is good for us  The squeezed middle age  The oldest old remain the most excluded  Growing exclusion from housing/transport/ amenities http://www.flickr.com/photos/thousandshipz/4679235/sizes/m/i n/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  159. 159. Living together is good for us  Those who moved from living alone to living as part of a couple (with no children) exhibited a 68% fall in the odds of becoming multiply excluded between 2002 and 2008 compared to those who stayed living alone;  Those who moved from being resident in a couple household to living alone were over three times more likely to become multiply excluded. For this age group (50+), becoming a widow is one of the most common reasons for starting to live alone. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change. http://www.flickr.co m/photos/anabadili/ 2963913137/sizes/ m/in/photostream/
  160. 160. The squeezed middle age People in their fifties increasingly excluded from society  The number of people aged 50 plus being socially excluded from decent housing, public transport and local amenities has risen sharply  Over one in six people in their fifties (18%) were socially excluded in two of more areas of their life – up from 13 per cent in 2002. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  161. 161. On the other hand – the oldest old remain the most excluded  Almost 38% of those aged 85 or older faced some kind of social exclusion, an encouraging decline of 10% from the 2002 levels  As people age, they are more likely to become more socially excluded than less  Almost two-fifths (38%) of those aged 85 and older were excluded from two or more domains of exclusion in 2008 http://www.flickr.com/photos/pinkcho colate/3039589789/sizes/m/in/photos tream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  162. 162. Growth in exclusion from housing/transport/amenities Rates of exclusion from decent housing and public transport and exclusion from local amenities rose sharply between 2002 and 2008 among the population aged 50 and above as a whole – by over five per cent to approximately sixteen per cent. http://www.flickr.com/photos/un_photo/5 832685007/sizes/z/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  163. 163. So what needs to happen?  Allocate the task of measuring and developing strategies to overcome material and non-material disadvantage to a specific team within government.  Shift the focus of government policy on ageing towards prevention.  Develop a widowhood strategy. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rwjensen/2288339230/size s/m/in/photostream/ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  164. 164. So what needs to happen?  Better develop outreach provision to reach the hardest to reach before crises occur.  Improve planning of neighbourhoods for people of all ages to reduce levels of exclusion from local amenities and decent housing and public transport.  Provide additional support for carers and reduce gender inequalities in social exclusion through the expansion of existing intervention programmes. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  165. 165. Contact David Sinclair Head of Policy and Research International Longevity Centre – UK davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk Twitter.com/ilcuk Twitter.com/sinclairda The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  166. 166. Summary  About ILC-UK  The size of the market (and it‟s growing)  What is an older consumer?  Is the consumer changing? Why does participation decline with age?  Given all this, are older consumers ignored?  The issues The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  167. 167. We influence Government policy and debate The ILC-UK was established in 2000 to explore and address the new longevity revolution and its impact on the life-course and society.  Think Tank  Global (12 ILCs)  Evidence Based  High visibility around Westminster (e.g. 17events/1000 people in 2010)  Engage at highest levels of Government  Focussed on life-course The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  168. 168. Some of our publications The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  169. 169. It‟s a big market  Older people‟s spending reached an estimated £97bn in 2008 (over 65)  The over 50s spent £276bn in 2008. This represents 44% of the total family spending in the UK The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  170. 170. An ageing society means more older consumers  The 65+ age group now accounts for 20% of the UK consumer population (16+), and is expected to rise so that in 2030 over 65s account for 25% of the consumer market. PRFC for ILCUK  The older market will grow by 81% from 2005 to 2030 while the 18-59 year old market will only increase by 7%. EU figures quoted by Stewart  In the UK, the number of consumers over 60 years old could increase by 40% over the next 30 years. Meneely, Burns and Strugnell (2008) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  171. 171. Distribution of net household financial wealth1: by age of household head (2006/08) Mean Median 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  172. 172. And we might buy different things  Older people currently spend more than other ages on: drugs and healthcare; personal care; and coffee  They represent a significant market for new cars and travel.  Clothing spend declines with age  But less on eating out, movies, theatres, petrol and champagne  Certain industries will need to adapt to an ageing society The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  173. 173. The beer industry is worried! “German beer consumption fell 2.1% in 2009 based on an ageing population” Bloomberg.com The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  174. 174. But we know that ageing represents growth potential (BIS) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  175. 175. What makes a consumer an older consumer? Impact of biological and social ageing on consumption  Loss in physical strength may make opening jars/bottles more difficult  Older people losing mental capacity/dementia may find difficulties with problem solving or processing information. They may also find it difficult to shop around or exercise choice  Those housebound can be excluded from the physical marketplace  Ageing can make it more difficult to carry heavy weights and can also result in reduced appetite (Twofers!) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  176. 176. Difficulty with shopping, communicating and handling money The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  177. 177. There are some very wealthy people not spending The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  178. 178. Yet people would like to participate more The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  179. 179. Are older consumers ignored? “Just because I‟m over 60 nobody wants to sell me anything anymore” Germaine Greer “Advertisers and marketers are astonishingly neglectful of older audiences even for products primarily sold to older people” Mike Waterson, Chair World Advertising Research Centre The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  180. 180. Why don‟t companies target older people?  Perception of a lack of buying power  Stereotyping of older people as “powerless, ugly, dowdy or uninspiring” (alongside an obsession with youth)  Lack of information about older people‟s sensitivity to marketing Tynan and Drayton (2008) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  181. 181. But some companies are getting more interested “Coca Cola moved into the wine, coffee, tea and orange juice markets during the 1980s to capture older consumer markets who were less interested in their coke brands” Simcock and Sudbury 2006 “Anheuser Busch, the largest US beer maker, attempted to reach the 50 plus age group and wound up creating one of it‟s top selling brands” Green 2004 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  182. 182. 6 Issues to consider Older consumers as giver and recipient Better representation of older people in advertising Older people as users of technology (the role of Inclusive design) Engaging the active consumer (Shopping around) A continuing need to tackle Age Discrimination The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  183. 183. The older consumer is a giver and recipient  Marketers note that older consumers buy a relatively high proportion of toys (25%?) and confectionary  Grandparents spend £50,000 on their first grandchild (Oct 2010)  Younger children/grandchildren often buy for the older person  In other words, people aren‟t always buying for themselves. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  184. 184. Representation of older people in advertising  Older people, particularly women, are under-represented in advertising (NB Cognitive age effect) IPC/Simcock and Sudbury (2001)  Where older people are represented, evidence that it is for products such as “pain relievers, digestive aids, lacistives and denture forumlas” Freimuth and Jamison (1979)  There is limited evidence that older people are badly represented in advertising Simcock and Sudbury  We‟ve started to see more examples of companies using older models (e.g. Dove)  Scant evidence and no consensus that using older models puts younger people off the product/service Simcock and Sudbury (2001) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  185. 185. Technology – an opportunity (and a challenge) Around 820,000 older consumers (65+) in the UK made an internet purchase PRFC Analysis for ILC-UK (EFS 2007) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  186. 186. Inclusive design The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  187. 187. Can you read the menu? In many European cities one of the main groups eating in restaurants are those over 50, yet very few 50 year olds are able to read a menu by candlelight with out their reading glasses. That is because the menus are usually designed by younger people in print shops, not for senior citizens. What a crazy situation: the people who the restaurants want to market to cannot read any of their sales literature. Patrick Dixon (2008) The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  188. 188. Shopping Around Mixed evidence but in terms of insurance; utilities; communications technologies, there is evidence that as we get older we are less likely to shop around. WHY?  Older people are happy with the product?  Difficult to calculate the benefit of switching (telecoms/utilities)  There are few alternatives (e.g. upper age limits)  Switching is a hassle  Reduced information processing abilities (but does experience compensate for age?)  But if marketers assume people don‟t shop around they won‟t target them. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  189. 189. Direct and indirect age discrimination “Interflora, Britain‟s biggest flower delivery business, has been accused of ageism as their new „happy birthday‟ balloon range only goes up to 60 years old.” Telegraph, September 2010 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  190. 190. Are older consumers changing? “It is blindingly obvious that there is enormous difference between the seniors of yesteryear and people of the same age today.” Saga 2008 We have a wealthy cohort (on average) (and there are more of them) Recent retirees “are more strongly defined by the impact of consumer society on their lives and expectations of post work life than previous generations” The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  191. 191. But is this a new phenomenon? “They have fewer ties to family responsibilities... With their homes paid for their major housing concern is for property taxes and repairs... Being essentially free from obligation, they may spend their income and assets as they wish. Here is a potential market, therefore for those marketers who wish to appeal to it. It is a new market, almost unrecognised which must be developed with care as it depends upon the changing role of older persons in our society and the realisation that they are more free than their predecessors in the past century.” Dodge, 1 962 The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  192. 192. Let‟s not assume older people are all the same The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  193. 193. The new image of the older consumer “ageless”. Let‟s take age out of the equation? Age Neutral approach argues that:  An Age Neutral approach should be taken to marketing  Needs of older people are not that different from other adults  The principals of marketing to all ages are the same  Lifestyle or interest is going to be more important than age Dick Stroud The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  194. 194. Summary  The older consumer has money  They value good service  Lots of companies get it wrong  Age not best predictor of behaviour  There is money to be made by those who get it right.  But. Is there such a thing as “the older consumer”? The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
  195. 195. Many thanks David Sinclair - Head of Policy & Research, International Longevity Centre (ILC-UK) davidsinclair@ilcuk.org.uk Twitter: @sinclairda @ILCUK The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.

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