The document presents findings on the impact of living in a retirement village, specifically Whiteley Village, on life expectancy. It identifies evidence suggesting that female residents who entered the village between ages 65 and 69 experienced a significant longevity boost, with a maximum advantage of 4.9 years for the 1960 cohort. Additionally, while male residents generally matched or exceeded the life expectancy of the general population, the village model aids in reducing mortality inequalities for its lower socio-economic residents.

1. Great Expectations:
Does living in a retirement village
extend life expectancy?
An ILC-UK and Cass Business School joint event
22nd February 2017
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

2. Welcome from ILC-UK
Baroness Sally Greengross
Chief Executive
ILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

3. Presentation from Whiteley Village
Chandra McGowan
Chief Executive Officer
Whiteley Village
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

5. Presentation of report findings
Prof. Ben Rickayzen
Head of the Faculty of Actuarial
Science and Insurance
Cass Business School
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

6. Does living in a retirement
village extend life expectancy?
The case of Whiteley Village
By Les Mayhew, Ben Rickayzen and David Smith
Cass Business School
City, University of London
Sponsored by the Worshipful Company of Actuaries

7. Background
• Around 500 residents, most of whom entered with limited financial
means
• 262 cottages, 51 extra care apartments, a residential home and
nursing home
• Cottage residents pay approx £1,000 per month
• The Whiteley Homes Trust aims to enable villagers to live as
independently as possible
• Extensive social facilities offered

8. Eligibility criteria
• Whiteley was founded by a charitable bequest and had certain
requirements of its intended villagers:
• “Poor persons…of good character and of sound mind”
• Relying on a State provided pension
• Preference given to people “engaged in commercial or agricultural
pursuits”
• In good health at entry (ie expected to live independently for
several years)

9. Gender breakdown of Whiteley population over time
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Averagenumberofresidents
Calendar period
Male

10. Age at entry in to Village - Women
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
Numberofentrants
Age at entry

11. Age at entry in to Village - Men
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80
Numberofentrants
Age at entry

12. Lengths of Village stay - Women
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Numberofpeople
Years in Village
Die in Village

13. Lengths of Village stay - Men
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Numberofpeople
Years in Village
Die in Village
Withdraw from…

14. Methodology
• To test whether Whiteley has improved the Villagers’ longevity we
analysed the percentages of Villagers surviving to specific ages
• These ages were derived by looking at the survival percentages of the
general population of England & Wales
• If a greater percentage of Villagers were surviving to these ages then
this indicates a possible survival boost from village life
• We identified the following typical ages at entry
• Women: entry age 65 to 69 (assume age 67)
• Men: entry age 68 to 72 (assume age 70)

15. Age at death of female Villagers who entered between
age 65 and age 69
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ageatdeath
Year of death
Village deaths based on age
of entry 65 to 69 excluding
withdrawals
E&W 90% alive; 10%
deceased

16. Observed versus expected number of female deaths for
each specified percentile cut-off
Percentage of deaths 10% 50% 90% 95%
Observed deaths 31 196 486 516
Expected deaths 56 280 504 532
N=560
P-value: one-sided 0.0002 <0.0001 0.0056 0.0010

17. Age at death of male Villagers who entered between
age 68 and age 72
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ageatdeath
Year of death
Village deaths based on
age of entry 68 to 72
excluding withdrawals
E&W 90% alive; 10%
deceased
E&W 50% alive; 50%
deceased

18. Observed versus expected number of male deaths for
each specified percentile cut-off
Percentage of deaths 10% 50% 90% 95%
Observed deaths 30 111 211 232
Expected deaths 24.5 122.5 220.5 232.75
N=245
P-value: one-sided 0.8793 0.0709 0.0215 0.4130

19. Life expectancy analysis - methodology
• Female cohort analysis by decade of entrants: Whiteley vs England &
Wales cohort tables
• Whiteley entrants age 65 to 69 who died in the Village compared to
age 67 E&W cohorts for 1930 to 1980
• E.g. Whiteley residents who entered between 1925 and 1934 were
compared to E&W 1930 cohort
• We compared mean and median duration for the two populations

20. Median duration to death at age 67 for female Whiteley cohorts
and corresponding England and Wales cohorts
Median duration to death
(years)
Whiteley
cohort centred
on year
Sample
size
Average age
at entry
(A)
Whiteley
Residents
(B)
E&W
(C)
Difference
(B)-(A)
1930 80 66.9 16.1 11.4 4.7
1940 78 67.2 15.2 12.5 2.7
1950 112 67.0 15.6 13.5 2.1
1960 101 66.8 19.2 14.4 4.9
1970 55 67.0 18.4 15.5 2.9
1980 45 67.2 17.9 16.7 1.3

21. 16.1 15.2 15.6
19.2 18.4 17.9
11.4 12.5 13.5 14.4 15.5
16.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Years
Cohort
Whiteley and England & Wales median life
expectancies
Whiteley
England & Wales

22. 0
5
10
15
20
25
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Years
Cohort
Whiteley and England & Wales median life
expectancies
Whiteley

23. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Years
Year of entry
Median life expectancy with 90% confidence intervals
England
and Wales
Whiteley
Village

24. Female survival curves for the 1960 cohorts of E&W and
Whiteley
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Percentagesurviving
Duration to death (years)
E&W (1960)
Whiteley…
P
Q
X Y

25. 14
15
16
17
18
19
Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2 Whiteley Q1
Years
Median life expectancy by quintile

26. 14
15
16
17
18
19
Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2 Whiteley Q1
Years
Median life expectancy by quintile

27. 14
15
16
17
18
19
Q5 Q4 Q3 Q2 Whiteley Q1
Years
Median life expectancy by quintile

28. Caveats to our analysis
• To be allowed entry into the Village, residents must be deemed to be
physically fit…. while not at level of life assurance underwriting, it is a
form of selection
• We have excluded people who withdrew from the Village; remaining
residents may be more social than the general population
• Residents may need to be relatively young to gain the survivorship
boost
• The average age and gender mix of the Village changes over time and
this may impact on the social cohesion of Whiteley

29. Conclusions
• Strong statistical evidence that females entering Whiteley
between ages 65 and 69 received a substantial boost to their
longevity
• Whiteley’s longevity advantage reached a high of 4.9 years for
females entering in the 1960 cohort
• This advantage lessened in 1970 and 1980, mainly due to the
average pensioner in the wider population becoming
wealthier relative to a Whiteley pensioner
• Indeed, the median duration of a female entrant in the 1980
cohort in Whiteley was between 2.7 and 3.3 years higher
when compared to the poorest 20% of female 67 year olds in
the wider population

30. Conclusions (continued)
• Whiteley appears to boost the longevity of female residents to
the equivalent of them coming from quintile 1 or 2
• For males, there was evidence that the majority of residents
lived at least as long as the general population
• Hence, being a Villager seems to nullify the higher mortality
rates usually experienced by members of lower socio-economic
groups
• Retirement villages appear to help in the Government’s aim to
reduce mortality inequalities experienced by the lower socio-
economic groups, as well as enhancing quality of life

31. Panel Discussion
Anna
Dixon
Chief Executive
Centre for Ageing
Better
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger
Tamara
Finklestein
Director General
Community NHS
Professor
Les Mayhew
Professor of Statistics, Faculty of
Actuarial Science and Insurance
Cass Business School

32. Discussion
Future opportunities
Baroness Sally Greengross
Chief Executive
ILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

33. Discussion close
Baroness Sally Greengross
Chief Executive
ILC-UK
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

34. Final Reflection
Peter Wilkinson
Chair of the Trust
Whiteley Village
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

35. Great Expectations:
Does living in a retirement village
extend life expectancy?
An ILC-UK and Cass Business School joint event
22nd February 2017
This event is kindly supported by Whiteley Homes Trust
#LivingLonger

36. Save the date
Future of Ageing Conference
29th November 2017
Central London