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AEI’s Critical Threats Project
Update and Assessment
May 16, 2017

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1) The formation of an independent governing council for southern Yemen
further fractures the state and may cause U.S. policy to fail.
2) Hamza bin Laden called on al Qaeda supporters to conduct fight-in-place
attacks in the West.
3) An al Qaeda-associated militant coalition is waging an escalating insurgency
in northern Mali.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA
Al Qaeda Network
The al Qaeda senior leadership seeks to inspire fight-in-place attacks in the West. Hamza
bin Laden, Osama bin Laden’s son, addressed would-be recruits and called for them to plan
attacks well, using al Qaeda’s “Open-Source Jihad” materials. He prioritized potential targets
as those who transgress Islam, Jews, Americans, NATO member states, and added Russia
to the list.
Outlook: Al Qaeda propaganda will continue to target individuals in the U.S. and Europe.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda
associates
An ISIS Wilayat Khorasan attack against a prominent Balochi ally of the Pakistani Prime
Minister may intend to provoke a crackdown on Balochi groups from Pakistani security
forces. Secular Balochi separatist groups are conducting an attack campaign targeting
Pakistani state economic interests in Balochistan. A violent crackdown could mobilize a
Balochi base that would facilitate ISIS’s expansion.
Outlook: ISIS militants will escalate in Balochistan to draw in the Pakistani security forces.

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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The Yemeni state is fracturing. Southern Yemeni leaders formed a transitional political
council that seeks to establish a federal state. The internationally recognized Yemeni
government and the al Houthi-Saleh bloc both condemned the new southern council.
Outlook: The Hadi government will make political sacrifices to re-incorporate the council.
Security
A standoff is developing between forces loyal to the Hadi government and the newly-formed
transitional political council in southern Yemen. Militias and army units declared their
allegiance to either side and have mobilized in Aden and Hadramawt.
Outlook: Political negotiations will likely de-escalate tensions to prevent further conflict.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen
AQAP stepped up an information campaign designed to garner support in central Yemen.
AQAP frames U.S. counterterrorism operations as support for al Houthi-Saleh forces while
positioning itself as the defender of Sunnis in central Yemen.
Outlook: AQAP will gain popular support in central Yemen while the civil war continues.
GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN
1) 10 MAY: AQAP
militants conducted
a suicide attack in
Hadramawt.
2) 10 MAY: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces
claimed to fire two
ballistic missiles at
Saudi Arabia.
3) 12 MAY: ISIS
claimed an attack
on al Houthi-Saleh
forces in al Bayda.
4) 15 MAY: Al Houthi-
Saleh forces seized
a village in al
Dhaleh.
5) 15 MAY: Gunmen
assassinated a
Southern
Movement activist
in Aden city.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
World leaders signed security and economic agreements at the 2017 London Conference on
Somalia to ensure international backing for the Somali Federal Government (SFG).
Outlook: The international humanitarian response in Somalia will improve.
Security
AMISOM troop-contributing countries committed to maintaining their deployments in
Somalia. Kenya’s president vowed to keep troops in Somalia indefinitely. Uganda’s president
announced a plan to double the country’s current AMISOM deployment. Somali President
Farmajo called for the lifting of the 1992 UN arms embargo to modernize the Somali military.
Outlook: The UN Security Council will partially lift the 1992 arms embargo on Somalia.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab shifted attack zones eastward into central Somalia in response to Kenyan
pressure in the Kenyan-Somali border region. Militants have competed with Somali and
AMISOM forces for control of several towns in Hiraan and Bakool regions in recent weeks.
Outlook: Al Shabaab may attempt to seize Hudur, the capital of Bakool region.
GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA
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1) 10 MAY: Al
Shabaab militants
fired mortars at an
AMISOM base near
Mogadishu.
2) 11 MAY: Al
Shabaab militants
clashed with
Ethiopian troops
near Beledweyne,
Hiraan region.
3) 12 MAY: Al
Shabaab militants
attacked quarry
workers in Elwaq,
Mandera County.
4) 15 MAY: Al
Shabaab militants
attacked Kenyan
police forces in
Omar Jillo,
Mandera County.

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| ASSESSMENT:
Political
The involvement of Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar in the Libyan
political process is deepening existing divisions within the UN-backed Government of
National Accord (GNA). The GNA’s foreign minister recognized Haftar as commander-in-
chief of the armed forces, sparking criticism from members of the GNA coalition.
Outlook: Key powerbrokers may abandon the GNA if it strikes a deal with Haftar.
Security
Militias from the former Libya Dawn coalition are mobilizing in Tripoli to challenge rival
groups aligned with the GNA. Former Libya Dawn militias attacked GNA-aligned militias in
several Tripoli districts in an effort to retake “lost territories” in the city.
Outlook: The GNA will attempt to broker a ceasefire in Tripoli.
Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya
ISIS resumed attacks in Sirte district six months after U.S.-backed forces expelled it from
Sirte city. ISIS militants reportedly attacked fuel trucks between Abugrein and Waddan.
Outlook: ISIS will seek to establish checkpoints on the north-south road from Abugrein.
WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA
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1) 09-12 MAY:
Former Libya Dawn
militias clashed
with pro-GNA
militias in Tripoli.
2) 09-14 MAY: The
LNA conducted
airstrikes on the
militant-held Sabri
district in Benghazi.
3) 12 MAY: Protesters
called for the
reinstatement of
the 1951
constitution,
federalism, and the
monarchy in
Benghazi and
Tobruk.
4) 14 MAY: ISIS
militants attacked
fuel trucks in Sirte
district.
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| ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the Maghreb
Protests against unemployment and lack of development escalated in Tunisia. A vendor self-
immolated on May 10 near Tunis, leading to clashes between civilians and the police.
Tunisia’s president ordered the army to protect key economic facilities from protesters.
Outlook: Protests will continue to spread in Tunisia, challenging the weak state.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)
AQIM affiliate JNIM is fixing security forces and disrupting local government in order to
expand its influence in Mali. JNIM fired mortars at a MINUSMA base in Timbuktu, continuing
a series of base attacks in northern Mali. JNIM also intimidated local officials in rural towns.
Boko Haram is using the release of kidnapped girls to rebuild its leadership. The group
released a video showing militants recently released in exchange for 82 Chibok girls. The
same video threatened attacks on Abuja, Nigeria’s capital. Boko Haram also released a
video showing Chibok girls who refused to be released.
Outlook: JNIM will increase its control over rural populations in northern Mali. Boko Haram
may attempt to conduct a bombing campaign in major Nigerian cities during Ramadan.
WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB
1) 10 MAY: Tunisian
police clashed with
protesters in
Manouba
governorate after a
vendor self-
immolated.
2) 10 MAY: Moroccan
authorities arrested
six suspected ISIS
militants in five
cities throughout
Morocco.
3) 12 MAY: Algerian
security forces
killed a militant in
Zougagha, Ain
Defla province.
4) 12 MAY: Tunisian
security forces
arrested a militant
in Zaghouan
governorate.
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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA SAHEL
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1) 12 MAY: Boko
Haram-Shekau
attacked a Nigerian
battalion near the
Sambisa forest in
Borno State,
Nigeria.
2) 14 MAY: JNIM
assassinated the
son of the mayor of
Menaka, Gao
region.
3) 15 MAY: JNIM
attacked the
mayor’s office in
Ouattagouna, Gao
region.
4) 15 MAY: JNIM fired
mortars at a
MINUSMA camp in
Timbuktu, Mali.

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ACRONYMS
African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB)
Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council (BRSC)
Congress for Justice in Azawad (CJA)
Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)
Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)
Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM)
Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)
Libyan National Army (LNA)
Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA)
United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)
Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmerman
research manager
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Heather Malacaria
program manager
heather.malacaria@aei.org
(202) 888-6575
Emily Estelle
al Qaeda analyst
emily.estelle@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Frederick W. Kagan
director
fkagan@aei.org
(202) 888-6569