2014/07/20 能源與科學研討會邱教授的投影片

Energy Resources and Earthquakes
Jer-Ming Chiu, Professor of Geophysics
CERI/Department of Earth Sciences
The University of Memphis
July 19, 2014

Modern World History can be considered as
a history of Earth Sciences
a history fighting for Energy Resources
center of the history -- petroleum
However, today’s center of international focuses on
“energy resources” have dramatically changed.
Overview

What “Energy Resources” are we talking about today?
Fossil -- Oil (Petroleum), Coal, Natural Gas
Renewable – Solar, Wind, Tidal, Geothermal, Hydraulic, Biofuels
Nuclear fission (breeder reactors) and nuclear fusion
Non-renewable – Nuclear (others), Oil, Coal, Natural Gas
Research on the exploration and development of these energy
resources are the focuses of today’s energy industries.

Among these energy resources,
Petroleum, Biofuels, Hydrogen -- transportations
Natural Gases, Biofuels, Geothermal – heating
Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Tidal, Hydraulic, Geothermal -- electricity

Over the entire human history, we depend mainly on the “burning”
of fossil energy resources, i.e. oil, coal, natural gas, for lighting,
electricity, and other applications.
The problems we encountered with fossil energy include
• limited resources available only on certain areas – the reserve of
fossil energy is finite and limited. The more we un-earth it
today, the less it will be available for our future generation.
In addition, many wars between countries were due to fighting
for the demand on energy resources.
• significant environmental issues – the burning of fossil energy
releases mercury, methane, CO2, and other debris to the air that
create a significant environmental problem. It is getting worse
and its impacts have becoming a global issue now.

Predicted Global Fuel Usage for Electricity Generation by the International
Energy Institute
14,000
12,000
GWH
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,,000
2,000
2002 2030
Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Other alternative

Problems related to modern energy resources:
1. Instability where most oil is found, from the Persian Gulf to Nigeria
to Venezuela, makes this lifeline fragile.
2. Transport oil from production field to market places is getting more
difficult, e.g. from north slope of Alaska to US continent or to Japan.
3. Natural gas can be hard to transport and is prone to shortage.
4. We won’t run out of coal anytime soon, or the largely untapped
deposits of tar sands and oil shale. But it’s clear that the carbon
dioxide spewed by coal and other fossil fuels is warming up the
planet.

5. Energy conservation can stave off the day of reckoning, but in the
end you can’t conserve what you don’t have. At least, in personal
level, all of us can do something to conserve energy.
6. It is time to step up the search for the next great fuel for the hungry
engine of humankind. Is there such a fuel? The short answer is
“NO”.
7. Hydrogen-fueled cars may give the wrong impression. Hydrogen is
not a source of energy. It has to be freed before it is useful and that
costs more energy than the hydrogen gives back. It is still long way
to go before hydrogen-fueled engine becomes affordable,
acceptable, or economically feasible.
8. Fossil fuels have met the growing demand because they pack
millions of years of the sun’s energy into a compact form, but we
will not find their like again.

Alternatively, we turn
from “conventional”  “unconventional”
from “non-renewable”  “renewable”
and from
“large-scale”  “small-scale operation”
to try to find an answer for today’s demand of energy
resources.

Solar: free energy, at a price

Nuclear power: still a contender

Why is China pushing new nuclear power?

What is happening now (after Fukushima)?

The future of nuclear power in the US

What we know are
What are our options?

Enhanced geothermal system
1:Reservoir
2:Pump house
3:Heat exchanger
4:Turbine hall
5:Production well
6:Injection well
7:Hot water to district heating
8:Porous sediments
9:Observation well
10:Crystalline bedrock

History
• Using flowing water to perform work is
nothing new
• Greeks, Romans and Chinese ground wheat
• Water wheels were used to mine ores and
fan bellows

Modern History
• Discovery of
electricity really
fueled hydropower
• First hydroelectric
power plant was in
Appleton Wisconsin
in 1882
• Produced 12.5 kW
– Light the home of the
designer, the plant
itself and a nearby
building
– 250 lights

Engineering and Physics
• Water is stored behind
the dam, creating a
potential difference
• Water flows past a
turbine
• Turns generator
• Produces electricity
– Watts
P = rhrgk

Hydroelectric Power Plants
United States
• We have 80,000 dams but
only 3% produce electricity
• Largest is Grand Coulee
Dam in Washington
• We produce 96,000 MW
using conventional
hydropower
World Wide

Largest in the World
• Three Gorges Dam
• 22.5 GW of electricity
• 34 turbines
• Cost $26 billion
• Almost 20 years to build

Largest in the United States
• Grand Coulee Dam
• Built in 1942
• Produces 6.8 GW of electricity
• $1.85 billion to build

Advantages
• Long-term renewable
• Flowing water is free
• Non-polluting*
• Flood control
• During drought, dam will
still have water
• 90% efficient
• Advanced technologies
which are adaptable to
change
• Multipurpose use
• Reliable and quick for
changes in public demand
• Low operating costs with
a projected lifespan of 50-
70 years
• Can develop in third world
countries

Disadvantages
Geological
• Sedimentation
• Built on or around
seismicity
• Landslides
• Methane emissions
Ecological
• Local fish migration
• Water Conditions
• Destruction and relocation
of local wildlife

Disasters
• Dam breakage is considered largest man-made disasters
• Largest disaster was Banqiao Dam in 1975
• Government maintains that it was a 2000 year flood not
poor engineering
– Designed to withstand a 1000 year flood
– More than a year’s rain fell in 24 hours
– August 6, a request to open the dam was rejected
– August 7, request was accepted but the telegrams failed to reach
the dam
– In total 62 dams failed

Future?
• Unconventional hydropower
• Global climate change is affecting stream
flows throughout the world
• Huge environmental impact
• For US, no major plans
• China is currently constructing 15 new
hydropower facilities
• Recent findings claim that hydropower is not
as “green” as originally thought

Rance (France), second largest tidal power station at 240 MW

Pros of tidal energy
1.Produces no primary or
secondary pollutants
2.Requires no fuel and is a lot more
reliable
3.Easy to calculate when
production will be high or low
4.Vertical axis is highly efficient
and cheap
5.Provides new and innovative
ways of gathering
Cons of tidal energy
1.Affects estuary diversity and
populations
2.Bird feeding is disrupted
3.Fish migrations disrupted (Fish
ladders)
4.On average will provide 10
hours of energy per day
5.Few actual high productivity
sites available on earth

Department of Energy Awards $37 Million for Marine and
Hydrokinetic Energy Technology Development
September 9, 2010 - 12:00am
Washington, DC - U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu today
announced selections for more than $37 million in funding to
accelerate the technological and commercial readiness of emerging
marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, which seek to
generate renewable electricity from the nation's oceans and free-
flowing rivers and streams. The 27 projects range from concept
studies and component design research to prototype development
and in-water device testing. This unprecedented level of funding will
advance the ability of marine and hydrokinetic energy technologies
to contribute to the nation's electricity supply.

Maine Project Takes Historic Step Forward in U.S. Tidal Energy Deployment
May 4, 2012 - 12:11pm
Cobscook Bay, Maine, is the site of a tidal energy pilot project led by Ocean
Renewable Power Company. | Photo courtesy of Ocean Renewable Power Company.
Cobscook Bay, Maine, is the site of a tidal energy pilot project led by Ocean
Renewable Power Company. | Photo courtesy of Ocean Renewable Power Company.

So where’s the electricity puck gonna be?
In the near term,
Natural gas -- Commodity prices have fallen 70 perfect in seven years.
and small plants are viable.
Solar, wind and garbage -- all have the advantage of decentralization,
allowing myriad providers access.
Nuclear – take advantage of the existing NPP, put new and safer
technology into work, gradually reduce the dependence of nuclear
power
This minimizes the need for expensive inter-ties like Gateway West.

In the near term,
What we need to accomplish:
Produce locally, consume locally.
Small is beautiful.
Most every housetop in the Magic Valley is a ready made platform for
solar.
Every farm and city is a potential engine for organic waste, be it
straw, cow, manure or garbage.
Burning is spreading like wildfire in Europe.
Dairy waste alone could create enough energy to power the entire
valley.

Geothermal -- the next go-to guy.
Heating and cooling are the biggest household energy hogs.
God’s provided mother earth as a giant battery.
Every lawn is a battery terminal.
It’s 100 percent green.
Go green, renewable, we have only “one earth” to live on.
Finally, job No. 1 is conservation -- Every kilowatt you don’t use
is a kilowatt you “create.”

Important experiences from energy development of Scotland

Future energy source search will need a big push from
government

What have these “energy resources” to do with earthquakes?
Production sites, refinery sites, power plant sites, distribution sites of any
energy resource are considered “critical facilities”.
Critical facilities are subjected to risks from
1. strong ground motions or tsunami generated from large
earthquakes that may occur at nearby active faults or
tectonically active regions, e.g. subduction zone, rift zone,
or collision zone
2. fatigue of any compartment of the facility after a long period
of operation
3. operational errors from human management
Among them, risk #2 and #3 could be minimized by expert’s attention.
However, risk #1 requires continuous monitoring, research, assessment, and
coordination between multi-disciplinary researchers and government agencies.

Risk #2 and #3 can be significantly reduced due to the
evolution of nuclear power design

Example for Nuclear Power Plant
One of the criteria for licensing of a nuclear power plant is that
no active faults are located within 250 miles radius from the
proposed site. Apparently, this is not the case for the nuclear
power plants in Taiwan, Japan, and even for California in the
USA. Alternatively, the construction threshold for a NPP in
these areas of high seismic hazard has to set to a higher
standard to allow the plant to sustain the maximum possible
strong ground motion from future large earthquakes.
That means “more expensive” for building NPP in high
seismic hazard regions, e.g. Taiwan, Japan, and California of
the USA

Locations of NPP and
Seismicity in the US
(Michelle Frey, 2011)
Locations of NPP and
Seismic hazard in the US
(Michelle Frey, 2011)

However, seismic risk of NPPs in central and eastern USA may
be underestimated due to the fact that seismic attenuation is
dramatically different between eastern and western US.
Seismic attenuation is one of the important parameters for a
successful assessment of regional seismic hazard.

Tornadoes are another potential natural disaster risk on NPPs.

Seismicity in Taiwan region is one of the most seismological
active regions in the world
Is seismic hazard in Taiwan region properly evaluated?

Volcano Earthquakes
Geothermal area tends to have earthquake swarms due to
volcanic activities, thermal expansions, movement of magma
bodies etc. Volcano or geothermal related earthquakes can be
as large as Magnitude 6.0.
Of course, volcano eruption is another hazard always around
the corner of any “active volcano”.
Luckily volcano eruption is recently becoming “Predictable”.

Example: Hawaii Islands
Older age

Recent Volcano Eruption History in Hawaii

April 23, 1990 A roadside store in Kalapana region

Vp =
l + 2m
r
Vs =
m
r
How do we know there are magma reservoirs beneath
a volcano?
Where is rigidity, 0 for liquid, and ~1 for solid
materials. 0~1 for partial melting materials
Therefore, we would expect a low Vp but high Vp/Vs
ratio for a region of magma reservoir
m

Cross-section of Vp (top) and Vp/Vs ratio across the Tatung-Chilung
volcanic group where volcanism ceased in Pliocene. The low Vp but
high Vp/Vs ratio beneath the volcano may suggest the potential of the
existence of partially melted magmatic reservoir at shallow depth.

Therefore, there are earthquakes, most of them in swarms,
beneath the Tatung volcano. Preliminary 3-D tomographic
images of structures beneath the Tatung Volcano suggested a
potential of “magma reservoir” at shallow depth.
A few coal burning and nuclear power plants are located
along coastal area of northern Taiwan. It is essential to
evaluate if these volcano earthquakes or potential magma
reservoir beneath Tatung volcano will cause any risk to these
critical facilities as well as Taipei City.

Induced Earthquakes
Deep drilling wells for petroleum and natural gas productions,
deep waste water injection wells, as well as reservoirs for
hydraulic or other purposes may accompany “induced
earthquakes”. Recent moderate and unusual earthquakes
occurred in central Arkansas, Oklahoma City of Oklahoma, and
Dallas region of Texas are good examples

Major concerns for nuclear power plants --- nearby tectonic
earthquakes, active faults, tsunami
Petroleum, natural gases, geothermal, hydraulic reservoir –
Induced earthquakes

Earthquakes with magnitude (M)
≥ 3 in the U.S. midcontinent,
1967–2012 (Ellsworth, 2013).
After decades of a steady
earthquake rate (average of 21
events/year), activity increased
starting in 2001 and peaked at
188 earthquakes in 2011.
Human-induced earthquakes are
suspected to be partially
responsible for the increase.

Can time and location of an earthquake be
predicted?
• Yes, and No
• 1975 Haicheng earthquake (Mw 7.3), China, was
predicted successfully based on large number of
foreshocks and anomalous behavior of animals.
None died.
• 1976 Tangshan earthquake (Mw 7.6) was not
predicted. More than 260,000 died.
• Recent dispute in the L’Aquita, Italy earthquake
2009 (ML 5.9, Mw 6.3)

Aftershocks in the Courtroom
• 30 people died of a major earthquake in
L’Aquila 2009
• Italian judge sentenced seven Italian
scientists to jail for their downplay of the
risk of a major earthquake
• Scientific communities argue that the
sentence is un-justified

30 people died during the L’Aquila, Italy earthquake (April
2009, ML 5.9, Mw 6.3)

Seven Experts were sentenced for downplayed the risk of a major earthquake

A dramatic increase of microearthquake activities before
the main shock

So, what can we do?
• Continuous monitoring of active seismic source
regions nearby any critical facilities to
1. study background seismic activities
2. explore any anomalous seismic activities
3. update observed strong ground motion
information
4. study temporary and spatial variations of
nearby subsurface structures

So, what can we do?
• Continuous monitoring of active seismic source
regions nearby any critical facilities
• Establish real-time earthquake early warning
system

Early Warning System
• Standalone – single station early warning
system for railroads and other critical
facilities
• Multiple stations – seismic array early
warning system for distant critical facilities
including nuclear power plan, super
computer center, hospital, government
building, etc.

Standalone Early Warning System
Strong motion sensors have been installed along the bullet train routes. Electric power
will be automatically shut down when strong ground motion beyond a threshold value
is detected. During the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, 23 bullet trains in motion were
successfully brought to stop by shutting down power automatically when strong ground
motions were detected.

Multiple Stations – Array Early Warning System
Array early warning system has also been installed near the potential source
regions to provide early warning for critical facilities such as nuclear power
plants, super computers, government buildings, etc.

"This funding represents the largest single investment of federal
funding to date in the development of marine and hydrokinetic
energy technologies," said Secretary Chu. "These innovative projects
will help grow water power's contribution to America's clean energy
economy."
The nation's ocean waves, tides, currents, thermal gradients, and
free-flowing rivers represent a promising energy source located close
to centers of electricity demand. The Department of Energy is
working with industry, universities, national laboratories, and other
groups to develop technologies capable of harnessing these resources
to generate environmentally sustainable, cost-competitive power.
The Department of Energy will leverage private sector investments
in marine and hydrokinetic energy technologies by providing cost-
shared funding to industry and industry-led partnerships.

Some of the projects selected today include:
Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (Pennington, New Jersey) will deploy a full-
scale 150 kilowatt PowerBuoy system in the Oregon Territorial Sea and collect two
years of detailed operating data. This project will obtain critical technical and cost
performance data for one of the most advanced wave energy converters in the U.S.
DOE Funding: $2,400,000. Total Project Value: $4,800,000.
Ocean Renewable Power Company (Portland, Maine) will build, install, operate,
and monitor a commercial-scale array of five grid-connected TidGen TM Project
devices on the sea floor in Cobscook Bay off Eastport, Maine in two phases over
three years. The project will advance ORPC's cross-flow turbine tidal energy
technology, producing a full-scale, grid-connected energy system and will gather
critical technical and cost performance data for one of the most advanced tidal
energy systems in the U.S. The completed project will comprise an array of
interconnected TidGenT hydrokinetic energy conversion devices, associated power
electronics, and interconnection equipment into a system fully capable of
commercial operation in moderate to high velocity tidal currents in water depths of
up to 150 feet. The project will significantly advance the technical, operational and
environmental goals of the tidal energy industry at large. DOE Funding:
$10,000,000. Total Project Value: $21,100,000.

Public Utility District No.1 of Snohomish County (Everett,
Washington) will deploy, operate, monitor, and evaluate two 10-
meter diameter Open-Centre Turbines, developed and manufactured
by OpenHydro Group Ltd, in Admiralty Inlet of Puget Sound. The
project is expected to generate 1 megawatt (MW) of electrical energy
during periods of peak tidal currents with an average energy output
of approximately 100 kilowatts (kW). This full-scale, grid-connected
tidal turbine system will gather critical technical and cost
performance data for one of the most advanced tidal turbine projects
in the U.S. DOE Funding: $10,000,000. Total Project Value:
$20,100,000.

All Eyes on Eastport: Tidal Energy Project Brings Change, Opportunity to Local
Community
July 24, 2012 - 2:40pm
Share on tweet
Captain Gerald "Gerry" Morrison, Vice President of Perry Marine & Consctruction. |
Photo Courtesy of Ocean Renewable Power Company.
Erin R. PierceDigital Specialist, Office of Public Affairs
Today in Eastport, Maine, people are gathering to celebrate a project that will harness
the power of the massive tides of Cobscook Bay to generate clean electricity.
At a public dedication event this afternoon, Portland-based Ocean Renewable Power
Company will unveil its first commercial-scale tidal turbine before it is deployed
underwater to generate power.
The pilot project -- supported by $10 million in funding from the Energy Department --
is expected to generate enough energy to power 100 area homes. Once successfully
deployed, it will be among the first commercial, grid-connected projects of its kind in
the nation.
Investing in tidal energy is part of President Obama’s all-of-the-above strategy to
develop every source of American energy to reduce costs for consumers, protect our air
and water, and move the United States toward true energy independence.
Ocean Renewable Power’s Eastport venture not only represents a monumental step for
the U.S. tidal energy industry -- it also holds important economic implications for
surrounding coastal communities.

We recently caught up with Captain Gerald “Gerry” Morrison, Vice President of Perry
Marine & Construction, for more insight into what the project means for local families
and businesses.
##
“I grew up here. I can remember when Eastport made things,” said Morrison whose
family ties to the area go back for five generations. “I’d like Eastport to go back to
the days when there were a lot of people here and people had jobs. That’s what I’d
like to see,” he added.
For Morrison, Ocean Renewable Power’s project spells economic opportunity for the
people who live and work in the area. His own company, Perry Marine &
Construction -- a joint venture with CPM Constructors -- works to manufacture and
deploy tidal turbines developed by Ocean Renewable Power’s team of engineers.
As Ocean Renewable Power’s project continues to expand and evolve, so too has
Morrison’s own venture. Perry Marine & Construction is building a new turbine
fabrication facility, and the size of the company’s staff has doubled.

When asked what his favorite aspect was of the project,
Morrison described the excitement of working on something
that’s “never been done before” and “fresh out of the box.”
But at the end of the day, what is most important, explained
Morrison is the project’s economic implications. “It’s jobs
for the area,” he said. “Made in the USA. Made in Eastport.
By American people who take pride in their work. That’s the
key.”

2014/07/20 能源與科學研討會邱教授的投影片

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