2012 General election prediction

1. November 6th, 2012

2. Electoral Map 2012

3. Polling Accuracy
 The two most accurate pollsters in 2008
were Rasmussen and PEW (tied).
 FiveThirtyEight ranked in the top 5.
 All three calculated the popular vote
breakdown to be: Obama 52% / McCain
46% ( fractions of a percentage point).
 In 2004, the RCP only missed WI and in
2008, it only missed IN and NC, the two
closest states won by Obama.
 Combined, the state averages were off by
just 2.8 points in 2008 and 1.9 points in
2004 – not perfect, but provide
somewhat reliable predictions for 2012.
 Rather than rely on one poll alone such
as ABC/Fox, RCP averages many polls
together for more accurate results.

4. Prediction: Romney (200)
Colorado (9)
 Active Registered Voter
Stats:
32% D, 34% R, 34% U
 The number of
unaffiliated voters in
CO has increased by
225,000 since 2008,
making it a closer race
for each candidate
 Early voter reg. stats:
37% R, 35% D
 Voted Republican in 5
of the last 7 elections
 Entrepreneurial,
wealthy state
 Unemployment rate
above national average

5. Prediction: Romney (229)
Florida (29)
 Active Reg. Voter Stats:
41% D, 36% R, 23% U
 67% white, 13.5% Latino,
13.3% black
 Jewish pop. account for
8% of likely voters in FL
 According to the AJC,
Jewish support for
Obama in FL has dropped
from 76% to 69%, a
favorable shift for
Romney
 Historically, Latino voter
turnout has been low
Estimated Romney gets
61% of white vote
 Was a red state in 4 of
the last 6 elections

6. Prediction: Obama (207)
 Democratic in 4 of
the last 5 elections
 Unemployment rate
below the national
average
 Des Moines Register
poll on Nov. 3rd
confirms that Obama
is leading in IA by +5
 The state that
propelled him out of
the caucuses and
toward the
Democratic
nomination
Iowa (6)

7. Prediction: Obama (223)
 Leaning Obama
 In a poll by the
Detroit Free Press,
50% of respondents
said that the auto
bailout was a
deciding factor in
their vote. Obama
won the support of
67% of those votes
 An Obama campaign
ad showed Romney’s
article from 2008 in
the NY Times titled
“Let Detroit go
Bankrupt”
Michigan (16)

8. Prediction: Obama (229)
Nevada (6)
 RCP margin of error is
about 3% which
means that Obama’s
support actually
ranges between
47.2% and 53.2%
 Frequently a swing
state; last 6 elections
it was 3x blue/3x red
 Large % registered
voters – Independent
 54% white, 27%
Hispanic, 9% black
 Booming population
 3rd most urban state
in terms of pop.

9. New Hampshire (4)
 Population 94.6%
white (one of the
nation’s lowest
minority-populated
states)
 30% R, 29% D, 40% U
 54% of women favor
Obama (52% of likely
voters)
 56% of men favor
Romney (48% likely
voters)
 51% of voters aged
50+ favor Obama
(54% likely voters)
Prediction: Obama (233)

10. North Carolina (15)
Prediction: Romney (244)
 Leaning Romney
 Since 1980, it’s voted
red (except for 2008)
 According to
Rasmussen Reports,
male voters in NC
prefer Romney by
66% to 31%, female
voters support
Obama 58% to 40%
 93% of NC Reps and
22% of NC Dems
favor Romney. 77%
NC Dems favor
Obama

11. Prediction: Obama (251)
 Has gone with the
winner in every
election since 1964
 The largest
newspaper in OH, the
Cleveland Plain
Dealer, which has
endorsed the winner
in all but two
elections since 1964,
endorsed Obama
 Unemployment rate
below the national
avg. - believes he
deserves a second
chance
Ohio (18)

12. Virginia (13)
Prediction: Obama (264)
 Voted Republican in
every election since
1968, except for 2008
 Fairfax County
support: In 2008,
Obama won 60% of
the vote as opposed
to McCain’s 39% (due
to Republican stance
on businesses – most
jobs in Fairfax are
from gov’t contractors
 Large minority pop.,
young voters, and
suburban
independents

13. Prediction: Obama (274)
 Democratic in the
last 6 elections
 Unemployment rate
below the national
average
 Despite the fact that
Romney’s running
mate, Paul Ryan, has
been a Republican
representative of WI
since 1999, Obama is
winning the state by
generous margins
 Obama has held the
lead for the entire
month of October
Wisconsin (10)

14. Pennsylvania (20)
Prediction: Obama (294)
 Since 1992, PA has
voted Democratic
 In the last 60 years,
the candidate who
carried the state has
also won the national
popular vote in every
election but two.
 Philadelphia suburbs
is left-leaning, driven
by women
Republicans are
linked with
opposition to
abortion /same-sex
marriage.

15. Electoral College Map Prediction

16. Obama Wins Re-Election