On Election Day of 2014, Republicans won a big victory. And it really was a “Wave” victory, bigger than 2010 in a lot of important ways despite the fact that you'd never know it listening to the mainstream media. Just because it was more or less expected doesn't make it less of a major thrashing than 2010 was. One of the reasons it was so big and so important is that the GOP didn't win the same way everywhere. In 2010 the pattern was pretty consistent across the country. In 2014 Republicans again won big, but it's a little more complicated how. And that's important as we look toward 2016 and beyond. Obama thinks the election wasn't about him. Some political scientists are already trying to make hand-waving arguments that Republicans didn't win groups that exit polls show they won. So, what should Republicans take from the 2014 Election? Here are five important lessons: 1) Obama's policies were on the ballot, as he said. But to dismiss 2014 as only about Obama is both to diminish the massive size of the Republican victory and to miss the important lessons of the election. This was a complete rejection of Democrats and liberal policies. 2) The return of working class whites (aka, Reagan Democrats, Angry White Males, Tea Party Voters) to the polls proves that 2010 was not a fluke and teaches Republicans an important lesson for 2016: The GOP must have a nominee, and candidates up and down the ballot, who can connect with this populist voting block. 3) Despite their vaunted turnout technology, Democrats didn't fully get the Obama coalition to the polls. This raises real questions about the replicability of African American turnout without Obama at the top of the ticket. Where Democrats did get other parts of their coalition out, the messaging required likely cost them more votes elsewhere than it earned them in turnout (e.g., Udall in Colorado). 4) The GOP has messages and candidates who can win in a diverse array of states. The message of a David Perdue in Georgia, a Greg Abbott in Texas, and a Larry Hogan in Maryland shared some basic similarities. But they were also each somewhat unique to the candidate and situation. 5) Outside of African Americans (persuading whom is going to be the work of many campaigns) 2014 proved that Republicans can win Asians nationally and can come very close to splitting Hispanics in a race with the right message and campaign. The myth of Republicans as the white party is just that: a myth. Toward that point, the GOP must continue a robust campaign toward all demographic groups.

1. Page 1
What the Election Results
Tell Us About America
-Chris Wilson
Partner, WPA Opinion Research
© WPA. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by
any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of WPA.

2. Page 2
Nancy Pelosi denied the obvious: this election was a
Republican wave.
“’I do not believe what happened
the other night is a wave.”
-- Nancy Pelosi
-- Politico,
Wave? What wave?,
November 12, 2014

3. Page 3
The Republican Wave

4. Page 4
Republicans gained 13 seats. Republicans now hold their largest House majority since 1928. Since President
Obama was elected in 2008, Democrats have seen a very strong House majority turned into a strong
Republican House majority.
20142012
20102008

5. Page 5
Republicans picked up nine Senate seats. They made the largest Senate gain by any party since 1980 and
the largest Senate gain in a midterm election since 1958. Consider this: had the GOP capitalized on some
very winnable races in 2010 and 2012, the GOP could have had a filibuster-proof Senate after the 2014
elections.
Map from RealClearPolitics.com
Republicans gained control of the Senate, going from 45 seats to 54. Democrats got no surprise
victories in purple states like Colorado, Iowa, and North Carolina.
Winnable Seats from
2012
Margin of
Defeat
2012 Presidential
MO- 2012 -16 Romney + 10
ND- 2012 -1 Romney +19
IN- 2012 -6 Romney +9
Winnable Seats from 2010 Margin of Defeat Reason for Defeat
NV- 2010 -5
Sandoval won the gubernatorial election by 12
points, but that did not translate into success for
Sharron Angle.
**DE- 2010 -17
O’Donnell beat the more electable candidate in
the Republican primary.
CO- 2010 -2
Based on exit polls, Buck lost by 17 points among
women, which was largely attributed to his
statements on social issues.
** Based on CNN Exit polling, Mike
Castle would have defeated Coons
44% to 42%.

6. Page 6
The GOP won gubernatorial contests in key blue states and managed to
hold their seats in competitive races.
GOP Gubernatorial Wins
Illinois voters ousted Democrat Pat Quinn in favor of Republican Bruce Rauner, while Maryland voters
opted for Republican Larry Hogan over Democrat Anthony Brown. Republican Charlie Baker won a
Massachusetts match-up against Martha Coakley.
States that typically support Democrats
2014 Governor
Races
Republican Democrat
MD Larry Hogan-52% Anthony Brown-47%
IL Bruce Rauner-51% Pat Quinn-46%
MA Charlie Baker-48% Martha Coakley-47%

7. Page 7
Republicans now control a historic amount of state legislatures.
GOP Control Of State Legislatures
Before this Election Day, the all-time Republican high was 64 chambers in 1920. Now, Republicans will hold a supermajority of
legislative majorities, with GOP control in 69 chambers. Moreover, the GOP now controls 32 Lieutenant Governorships and 29
secretaries of state.
GOP pickups of State Senate chambers include Colorado, Maine, and Nevada, Minnesota House, Nevada Assembly, New
Hampshire House, New Mexico House and outright majorities in the Washington State Senate and New York State Senate.
The GOP now possesses the office of Governor along with majorities in both houses in 24 states while Democrats only have full
control in 6 states.
States Under Full GOP
Control
AL LA OK
AR MI SC
AZ MS SD
FL NC TN
GA ND TX
ID NE WI
IN NV WY
KS OH UT

8. Page 8
Five Lessons from 2014

9. Page 9
1. A defeat of liberal policies as much as
Obama individually

10. Page 10
President Obama was an anchor weighing on Democrats’
electoral chances.
President Obama’s approval rating
was an anchor weighing down
Democrats at every level.
The GOP effectively nationalized the
election over voter dissatisfaction
with the direction of the country, the
economy, and Obama’s failures on
foreign affairs and health care.

11. Page 11
The National House Exit poll showed that voters’ discontent with Obama
helped Republicans nationally.
Data from CNN Exit Polls
Reason for U.S. House Vote
Reason % Margin
Support Obama 19% D+87
Oppose Obama 33% R+87
Not a Factor 45% D+12
President Obama Job Approval
Approval Rating % Margin
Approve 44% D+75
Disapprove 55% R+68

12. Page 12
Republicans were not only successful in picking up open seats, they were also able
to unseat key Democratic incumbents in part because of President Obama’s dismal
approval rating in these states.
Obama Approval and Democratic Candidate Performance
State Open/Incumbent Obama Approval Rating
Democratic Candidate
Percentage
Democratic Candidate % Minus
Obama Approval Rating
AK Dem Incumbent 37% 46% +9%
AR Dem Incumbent 30% 39% +9%
CO Dem Incumbent 42% 46% +4%
GA GOP Open 42% 45% +3%
IA Dem Open 39% 44% +5%
KY GOP Incumbent 34% 41% +7%
LA Dem Incumbent 39%* 44%* +5%
NH Dem Incumbent 43% 52% +9%
NC Dem Incumbent 43% 47% +4%
SD Dem Open 33% 30% -3%
WV Dem Open 23% 34% +11%
Obama Approval Rating Data from CNN Exit Polls
*Obama Approval Rating from Nov. 4 election exit polls
*Democratic Candidate Percentage is Sen. Mary
Landrieu’s percentage in the runoff election on Dec. 6.

13. Page 13
2. The “Tea Party”* vote came back in 2014
*AKA:
Reagan Democrat
Angry White Male
White Working Class

14. Page 14
Obama was able to win a fair share of WWC voters in 2012

15. Page 15
White voters increased as a share of the electorate from 2012.
Ethnicity: Whites (From CNN Exit Polls)
Ethnicity: Whites
74%
77%
72%
75%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2010 2012 2014
Percentage of the Vote
55%
60% 59% 60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2010 2012 2014
Republican Share of the Vote

16. Page 16
Middle class voters made up a slightly larger portion of the electorate than
they did in 2012. and voted more Republican than they did in 2012.
Income: $50,000 to <$100,000 (From CNN Exit Polls)
Income: $50,000 to <$100,000
36% 37%
31%
34%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2010 2012 2014
Percentage of the Vote
49%
53% 52%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2010 2012 2014
Republican Share of Vote

17. Page 17
White voters with no college degree, a key Tea Party constituency, were the
same portion of the electorate as the 2010 Election.
Education and Race: Whites with no College Degree (From CNN Exit Polls)
Education and Race: Whites with no College Degree
36% 36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2014
Share of the Electorate
63% 64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2014
Republican Vote Share

18. Page 18
3. The Obama Coalition Only Exists For Obama

19. Page 19
The Obama coalition is just that, an Obama coalition, not necessarily
a Democratic coalition.
The Obama coalition
which has turned out in
2008 and 2012 to drive
Obama’s two
presidential election
victories has failed to
turn out in both midterm
elections during
Obama’s presidency.
Without President Obama
on the ballot, Democrats
have had difficulty
motivating younger voters
and minority voters to come
out to the polls for their
candidates.

20. Page 20
The demographic makeup of the 2014 national electorate was more similar to the 2010 electorate than the
2008 and 2012 electorates. The youth vote and the Hispanic vote was down from 2012. Republicans
matched Democrats as a share of the electorate in 2014.
Comparison of 2010, 2012, and 2014 Electorate (From CNN Exit Polls)
Comparison of 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014 Electorate (National)
Age 2008 2010 2012 2014
18-29 18% 12% 19% 13%
30-44 29% 24% 27% 22%
45-64 37% 43% 38% 43%
65+ 16% 21% 16% 22%
Gender 2008 2010 2012 2014
Male 47% 48% 47% 49%
Female 53% 52% 53% 51%
Ethnicity 2008 2010 2012 2014
White 74% 77% 72% 75%
African-American 13% 11% 13% 12%
Hispanic 9% 8% 10% 8%
Party ID 2008 2010 2012 2014
Republican 32% 35% 32% 36%
Independent 29% 29% 29% 28%
Democrat 39% 35% 38% 35%

21. Page 21
The national House exit polls showed that Republicans did significantly better
among women than they did in 2012.
Key Voter Groups: Women (All Data from CNN exit polls)
Key Voter Groups: Women
43%
49%
44% 47%
56%
48%
55%
51%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2010 2012 2014
GOP Dem

22. Page 22
Republicans made a big gain among Hispanics from the 2012 election.
Key Voter Groups: Hispanics (All Data from CNN exit polls – 2006, 2010, and 2014 are from the
National House exit polls and 2004, 2008, and 2012 are from the Presidential Election exit polls)
Key Voter Groups: Hispanics
44%
30% 31%
38%
27%
36%
53%
69% 67%
60%
71%
62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
GOP Dem

23. Page 23
According to exit polling, Republicans had their best showing among Asian voters in decades.
Asians voted more Republican than Democratic for the first time since 1996.
Asian Voters
Asian American voters are split between Republicans and Democrats
2014

24. Page 24
Democrats actually did a good job of getting African Americans and unmarried women to the polls in NC,
though they failed to connect with younger voters (only holding a 14 point edge with this group) and
hemorrhaged support in suburban areas.
All Data from CNN Exit Polls
Voter Group Turnout in Competitive Statewide Races
NC
Demographic 2012 2014 2012 Vote 2014 Vote
White 70% 74% R+37 R+29
African-American 23% 21% D+92 D+93
Unmarried Women 23% 22% D+27 D+32
Unmarried Men 16% 15% D+19 D+20
Age 18-29 16% 12% D+35 D+14
Suburban 28% 37% R+9 R+18
Urban 38% 36% D+19 D+25

25. Page 25
Democrats’ voter turnout operation performed better in states they viewed as more
competitive than in states that they did not view as competitive. But they still lost the states
that were competitive.

26. Page 26
4. Voters Require Something To Vote For

27. Page 27
Health care and foreign policy emerged as more important issues for the 2014 electorate. Republicans won
foreign policy voters by 14 percent after losing them by 23 points in 2012. The GOP lost health care voters
by 51 points in 2012 but 20 points this year.
Most Important Issues (From CNN Exit Polls – Republican in 2012 is Romney, Democrat in 2012 is
Obama)
Most Important Issues
33%
56%
51% 50%
24%
39%
56%
42%
47% 48%
75%
59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 Foreign
Policy
(5%)
2014 Foreign
Policy
(13%)
2012 Economy
(59%)
2014 Economy
(45%)
2012 Health Care
(18%)
2014 Health Care
(25%)
Democrat
Republican

28. Page 28
Maryland

29. Page 29
Case Study: Maryland Gubernatorial Election
The Maryland
Gubernatorial race is a
case where Republicans
capitalized on the failure
of Democratic policies
and the unpopularity of
Governor Martin
O’Malley.

30. Page 30
We found in our polling that voters overwhelmingly did not want a third term for Governor Martin O’Malley.
Other polling showed more Marylanders disapproved than approved of his job performance.
Factors in Larry Hogan’s Victory
Maryland Voters’ Discontent with Gov. O’Malley
Third Term for Gov. Martin O’Malley (WPA
poll, June 30-July 1, 2014, 500 LVs)
Support 33%
Oppose 58%
Undecided 9%
Gov. O’Malley Approval Rating
(Washington Post/UMD poll, Oct. 2-5,
2014, 807 RVs)
Approve 41%
Disapprove 48%
No Opinion 11%

31. Page 31
The Hogan campaign’s “Kandie” ad proved to be very effective at improving Hogan’s positive info flow with
voters. It also helped increase his favorable image and helped him move from a one point deficit to a five
point lead on the ballot.
“Kandie” Ad
“Kandie” Ad (Larry Hogan for MD Governor Campaign)
The “Kandie” ad began running on October 22. The ad shows K. Kandie Leach of Mt. Washington (the Baltimore
area) telling the viewer that even though she has never voted for a Republican, she is voting for Larry Hogan
because she is frustrated with the high taxes and dismal economic record of the O’Malley-Brown years.
Info Flow on Larry Hogan
Opinion
Oct. 19-
20,
2014
Oct. 26-
27, 2014
More Favorable 51% 55%
Less Favorable 28% 32%
Hogan
Image
Oct. 19-
20,
2014
Oct. 26-
27,
2014
Total
Favorable
47% 49%
Total
Unfavorable
26% 24%
Ballot
Oct.
19-20,
2014
Oct. 26-
27,
2014
Larry Hogan 41% 44%
Anthony
Brown
42% 39%

32. Page 32
Texas

33. Page 33
Case Study: Texas Gubernatorial Election
The Texas Gubernatorial
race is an example of
Republicans foiling the plans
of Democrats to turn out key
Democratic constituencies.
Not only did they not turn
out, Republicans made
serious gains among these
voter groups.

34. Page 34
By every measurable outcome, Battleground Texas failed to live up to its promise: More women voted for
Abbott than Davis, there was no surge in Hispanic registration or turnout, and the numbers of Democratic
voters fell.
Battleground Texas was Unsuccessful at Boosting Democratic Turnout
Texas Voter Turnout over the last two Midterm Elections
Party ID 2010 2014*
Republican 39% 38%
Democrat 28% 27%
Gender 2010 2014*
Male 50% 49%
Female 50% 51%
Ethnicity 2010 2014*
White 67% 66%
African-American 13% 12%
Hispanic 17% 17%
Results of the 2014 Gubernatorial Election
Party ID Abbott Davis
Republican 96% 3%
Democrat 7% 92%
Gender Abbott Davis
Male 66% 32%
Female 54% 45%
Ethnicity Abbott Davis
White 72% 25%
African-American 7% 92%
Hispanic 44% 55%
*2014 Data Based on CNN Exit Polls

35. Page 35
The Abbott Campaign was able to attract Hispanic votes
through targeted messaging.
Abbott Hispanic Vote
35%
25%
38%
44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2006 2010 2014
Percentage of the Hispanic Vote for GOP Gubernatorial Candidate

36. Page 36
The Abbott campaign was able to analyze the impact of
different ads on the Hispanic community.
Advertisement Tracking
Among Hispanics the Miranda ad lead in terms of impressions-per-person.
Impressions per Person Effectiveness
3.912
3.796
2.318
1.590
1.396
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
Miranda
(Abbott
Education)
Scandal (FBI) Texas
Surgeon
Miranda
(Abbott
Education sp)
Importance
of Education
0.046
0.036
0.007
-0.001
-0.031
-0.05 -0.03 -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.07
Scandal (FBI)
Miranda (Spanish)
Miranda (Abbott Education)
Texas Surgen
Importance of Education

37. Page 37
The Miranda Ad, that focused on education, was effective in moving
Hispanic voters toward Greg Abbott.
Miranda Ad
Miranda Education Ad

38. Page 38
In order to win in 2016 the GOP will need to continue to
improve with the Hispanic vote.
The GOP made gains among Hispanic voters in 2014 compared with
2012 and must continue to make strides among Hispanics.
o As the Hispanic vote continues to grow, especially in key swing
states like Nevada, Colorado, and Florida, the GOP must
continue to make serious and sustained efforts to appeal to the
Hispanic community.
Republicans should look to Texas as a model for how to win more
Hispanic votes in 2016.
Education is a key issue in Texas that prevented Abbott from reaching a
majority of the Hispanic vote. A solid education plan should be part of
the GOP platform in 2016.

39. Page 39
5. Turnout is a Messaging Problem, Too

40. Page 40
Nevada

41. Page 41
Nevada is a key battleground state in 2016 and Republicans
must do what they did in 2014 to win there.
Nevada will be a key battleground state in 2016. In 2014,
Republicans did tremendously well, winning every major statewide
office.
The GOP was able to muster a fantastic GOTV effort to win early
voting, something that the part will need to be able to do to win in
2016.
They have office holders
who have been able to
go into places that are
competitive and compete
for swing constituencies,
such as Hispanics.

42. Page 42
Republicans swept every major Statewide executive office, won three of four seats in the U.S. House of
Representatives and gained majorities in the Nevada State Senate and Assembly. This is the first time
since 1929 that Republicans in Nevada have gained the office of Governor along with majorities in the
State Senate and Assembly.
Key Republican victories in Nevada.
Statewide Offices U.S. House of Representatives
Nevada State Senate

43. Page 43
Clark County is a Democratic heavy county in Nevada. Although overall turnout was down in Nevada it was
down 23 points in Clark County. In the 2014 General Election only 41% of voters in Clark County turned out
while the rest of Nevada saw a majority of voters turnout.
Turnout in Nevada during the last two Midterm Elections.
Overall Turnout and by County Overall Turnout by Clark County vs. the Rest of Nevada
65%
46%
64%
41%
64%
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2014
Overall Turnout Clark County Washoe County
Clark County Rest of Nevada
2014 General Election Turnout
Percentage in Nevada
41% 54%
“This year, Reid and his ace political team had much more to juggle. U.S. Senate Democrats were
defending seven seats in red states. Reid's team raised millions for the Senate Majority political action
committee, trying to almost single-handedly keep the Senate. Reid himself criss-crossed the nation
courting donors. Nevada Democrats also lacked a compelling statewide race to rally the party. Both
factors gave Reid little reason to abandon the national campaign trail to spend his time and money in
Nevada.”
- Las Vegas Sun, November 6th 2014

44. Page 44
Early voting data shows an increase in Republican turnout in 2014 compared to
2010 while Democratic turnout decreased.
Turnout in Nevada during the last two Midterm Elections.
Early Voting Turnout by Party
41%
45%
16%
17%
43%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2014
Republican Other Democrat
GOP Other Democrat
Active Registered
Voters- October 2014
35% 25% 40%

45. Page 45
Colorado

46. Page 46
Udall ran a “war on women” campaign against Cory Gardner in Colorado while Gardner chose to run a positive
campaign that focused on policy issues. As a result, Udall was unable to win over the typical Democratic base. Young
voter turnout was down and Udall did worse than Barack Obama and Michael Bennet among urban voters.
All Data from CNN Exit Polls
Demographic 2010 2012 2014 2010 Vote 2012 Vote 2014 Vote
White 81% 78% 79% R+7 R+10 R+10
Hispanic 12% 14% 14% NA D+52 NA
Unmarried Women NA 15% 16% NA D+25 D+36
Unmarried Men NA 23% 18% NA D+26 R+14
Age 18-29 9% 20% 14% NA NA NA
Suburban 49% 46% 46% Tie D+4 R+11
Urban 35% 38% 43% D+13 D+13 D+6
Voter Group Turnout in Colorado
CO (2010 Senate, 2012 President, 2014 Senate)

47. Page 47
Democrats lost support in highly Hispanic concentrated counties in Colorado. The biggest
gains among Republicans were in Pueblo and Weld counties.
Top Hispanic Counties Determined by Census Data
County 2008 2010 2012 2014
Denver D+53 D+47 D+49 D+46
Jefferson D+9 D+2 D+4 R+<1
Arapahoe D+13 D+4 D+8 D+2
Adams D+18 D+7 D+15 D+2
Weld R+8 R+20 R+13 R+27
El Paso R+19 R+26 R+21 R+30
Pueblo D+15 D+13 D+13 D+1
Larimer D+10 D+2 D+5 R+1
Boulder D+46 D+39 D+42 D+40
The Hispanic Vote in Colorado

48. Page 48
Conclusion

49. Page 49
Five Key Points
Despite Nancy Pelosi’s insistence that this election was not a wave, the
evidence suggests that the 2014 election was a clear GOP wave.
1) Yes Obama's policies were on the ballot, as he said.
a) But to dismiss this election as just about Obama is both to
diminish the massive size of the Republican victory and to miss
the important lessons of this election.

50. Page 50
2) The return of working class whites to the polls proves that 2010 was
not a fluke and teaches us an important lesson for 2016.
a) The GOP must have a nominee, and candidates up and down
the ballot, who can connect with this populist voting block.
3) Despite their vaunted turnout technology, Democrats didn't fully get
the Obama coalition to the polls.
a) This raises real questions about the replicability of African
American turnout without Obama at the top of the ticket.
b) Where Democrats did get other parts of their coalition out, the
messaging required likely cost them more votes elsewhere than
it earned them in turnout.

51. Page 51
4) We have messages and candidates who can win in a diverse array
of states.
a) The message of a David Perdue in Georgia, a Greg Abbott in
Texas, and a Larry Hogan in Maryland shared some basic
similarities.
b) But they were also each somewhat unique to the candidate and
situation.
5) Outside of African Americans (persuading whom is going to be the
work of many campaigns) the GOP proved that we can win Asians
nationally and can come very close to splitting Hispanics in a race
with the right message and campaign.
a) The myth of Republicans as the white party is just that and we
should continue a robust campaign.
b) Of all groups.