Presentation by Robin Bloch and Matthew Crighton to the Spotlight on Istanbul: Building and Rebuilding the Periphery - Global Suburbanisms conference, December 2015

1. Addis Ababa’s New Periphery
Robin Bloch and Matthew Crighton
ICF International
Spotlight on Istanbul: Building and Rebuilding the Periphery
December 10-12 2015

2. 2
Background on Ethiopia
 Second most populous country in Africa – now 99m - and growing rapidly at 3% pa (implies 200m
population by 2045)
 On the cusp of the transition between rural and urban
 One of the fastest growing economies in the world…rates around 11% pa this century
 …but still one of the poorest. GDP per capita of just $550 (Africa average is $1,700)
 Current government took power in 1991 after long civil war – and is characterised as a
“developmental state”
 The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) and its allies won all 547 seats in
the 2015 election
 Ethiopia is divided into nine ethno-linguistically based regional states and two chartered cities
(Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa).
 Recent progress in development goals and optimism for the future – huge ambition (influence of
Chinese ‘model’ important)
 GoE aims to achieve lower middle income status ($1,560 per capita) by 2025 through
implementing national development strategy (Growth and Transformation Plans (GTP II and III)

3. 3
Regional states and cities and towns

4. 4
Urbanisation trends and the urban system
 Urban population has increased from 9.8m (15%) in 2000 to 18.5m (19%) in
2014 and will (likely) reach 47m by 2037 (35%) – an increase of more than
1.5m each year
 Still significant deficits in housing, infrastructure, services, particularly in
secondary and smaller cities: e.g., Adama (pop 324,000), Gondar (324,000),
Mek'ele (324,000), and Hawassa (302,000)
 High levels of urban poverty and unemployment (20-25%)
 Government response led by Urban Local Government Program (ULGDP) with
performance-based grants for infrastructure and services
 Increasing activity by Ministry of Urban Development and Housing (MUD&H)
around urban research and analysis, policy formulation (e.g. National Urban
Spatial Plan) and an urban development program (Ethiopian Cities
Sustainable Prosperity Goals) to complement and operationalise GTP II and III

5. 5
The imperative for industrialisation
 To achieve middle-income status by 2025, economy must continue to grow at
more than 10% annually
 Working age population increased from 33m in 2005 to 53m in 2015…to 82m
by 2030
 Majority of population still employed in agriculture (77%)…while
manufacturing accounts for just 4.7% -- the plan is to increase it to 20% by
2025 to drive a “structural transformation”
 Manufacturing GVA remained constant at 4.3% of total from 1999-2013
 Therefore key emphasis on conjoined urbanisation and industrialisation
thrust: towns and cities as engines of growth – but also modernisation – and
making a coherent linkage between ‘urban’ and ‘rural’
 Operationalised through investment in 10 key sectors, 5 large-scale industrial
parks (20m square metres), linked by transportation corridors

6. 6
Addis Ababa
 Capital, commercial and industrial centre:
primacy in urban system
 Rapidly growing population – 3.7m in 2015
(4.6m in metropolitan area), 5m in 2025, 6.4m
in 2035
 High degree of primacy (0.79) – next three
largest cities all 325,000
 Majority of the population living in informal
settlements – around 70% in ‘slums’
 “One big construction site”: dynamism, flux, a
harsh, tough urban milieu – and large
aspirations for the city’s rise to
continental/regional prominence

7. 7
New real estate construction in Addis Ababa

8. 8
Informal settlements in Addis Ababa

9. 9
Drivers of suburbanisation – condominium housing programme
 Since 2005 Ethiopia has been implementing an ambitious government-led low-
and middle-income housing programme: The Integrated Housing Development
Programme (IHDP).
 Facilitated by state ownership of land and land leasing system
 Original target to build 360,000 condominium units nationwide; 244,436 were
completed, 170,000 in Addis Ababa.
 New target to build 50,000 every year in Addis Ababa only.
 Developments between 2005-2010 were focused on the periphery of the city,
though focus has now shifted also to include slum upgrading and inner-city
redevelopment.

10. 10
Condominium housing programme, continued
 10% of each condominium site is allocated for commercial purposes – shops,
restaurants, pharmacies etc. in addition to communal areas for traditional
practices
 Allocation is via lottery; around a million registrations.
 Studio and 1-bed apartments sold below cost, 2-bed and 3-bed above cost in
order to cross-subsidize lower income households.

11. 11
Condominium housing programme
Condominium housing on the periphery of Addis Ababa (South towards Adama)

12. 12
Investment in infrastructure
 Investment in infrastructure in Ethiopia has been driving growth over the past
decade.
 Inward investment is among the highest in the world relative to GDP.
 However, $5.1bn annual investment in infrastructure still required.
 Connective infrastructure in and around Addis is of a very high standard,
compared to other cities in sub-Saharan Africa.
 This connective infrastructure is helping to reshape the periphery.

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$475m Chinese built urban light-rail

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Railway linking Addis Ababa to Adama and Djibouti ($2.4bn)

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Addis-Adama expressway

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De-concentration of economic activity: commercial phase
 Commercial developments in the east and south-east around Bole airport…
 Followed the development of infrastructure…

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De-concentration of economic activity: commercial phase
 And then at Bole Summit, alongside new light manufacturing development.
 And were accompanied by new condominium developments, first at Bole Gerji…

18. 18
De-concentration of economic activity: industrial phase
 This time in tandem with Chinese led investment…
 The second phase is occurring along the southern transport corridor …
Gateway to the Eastern Industry Zone

19. 19
De-concentration of economic activity: industrial phase
 More than 10,000 of which were just transferred in March 2015.
 Once again accompanied by new condominium developments…
EIZ

20. 20
Future: Addis Ababa – Adama industrial corridor
EIZ

21. 21
Future: Addis Ababa – Adama industrial corridor
New factory and men sorting rebar with railway in the background (‘old’ road between Adama and
Addis)
Containers waiting to be loaded at the Mojo dry port (10km North-West of Adama)

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Conclusion
 New urban-industrial growth ensemble on Addis periphery: designed fusion/mix of service,
retail, commercial, industrial and residential functions and land uses – which, if supported by
well-executed transportation and urban infrastructure, takes a corridor spatial form
 These new developments have created new hubs/centres of employment and residence, and
have (and will continue to) shift economic activity away from the traditional city core – the
creation of a Addis city-region can ensue
 Challenges with political and administrative coordination between Addis Ababa city and Oromia
state governments – important issues and protests around relocation and land expropriation
 In conclusion:
– (1) In Ethiopia, as elsewhere, there is the need to understand spatial expansion and peripheral development,
incl. various suburbanisms, as a multi-faceted process involving different land uses/spaces – not only
residential, which is often the analytical focus
– (2) Peripheral development is driven by very large economic, social and political dynamics (accumulation,
urbanisation, economic growth, changing social configurations (class), and political imperatives which are
often poorly understood – arguably, bolder, wider research strategies are needed
– (3) The role and dynamics of the (in this case, developmental) state (as in local, regional and national
government) needs to be critically understood, (rather than just criticised), and engaged with (if you want to
move beyond criticism)