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10 Current Trends in iPhone Gaming Stuart Dredge Mobile Entertainment / iPhone Games Bulletin
Who Am I? UK journalist covering mobile, games and digital entertainment Mobile Entertainment / Music Ally Also Sunday Times, Recombu, What Mobile And my own things... www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
iPhone Games Bulletin Launched in June 2009 Daily free email newsletter offering iPhone games industry news and analysis Sign up at www.iphonegamesbulletin.com Also www.islatepicks.com (tablet tech and apps) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
1. The iphone games goldrush www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
The Big Numbers Addressable base of 50m+ devices 30m iPhones and 20m iPod touches More than 3 billion App Store downloads 7.4m iPhones sold in Q3 2009 17.8% share of smartphone market (Canalys) 2.5% share of ALL global handsets (Strategy Analytics) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Developers Striking It Rich 10m		Paid iPhone games sold by Gameloft since		the launch of the App Store $1,687	Revenues per hour of dvpt time forNimbleBit’s Scoops ($269,929 total) 2m		Tap Tap Revenge 3 downloads in a week		last Christmas after going free 10 days	How long it took Playmesh to rack up		1m free downloads of iFarm 13.5m	Downloads of Backflip Studios games in		seven months ($1.75m of revenue) 79,422	Doodle Jump’s sales on Christmas Day alone www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Analysts’ Big Numbers $2.8 billion	iPhone games revenues in 2014 – 			24% of handheld market (DFC) 18.7 billion 	App downloads in 2014 – of which 20%			will be from Apple devices (Ovum) 610 million 	Paid apps in first 2bn iPhone 				downloads – generating $900m of			developer revenues (Pinch Media) 36 million		Number of iPhones that Apple will sell 			in 2010 (Piper Jaffray) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
2. Heavy usage but ferocious competition www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Heavy Usage 72% of iPhone users have downloaded 10 or more apps (Compete) Average user has downloaded 65 apps for their device, spending $80 in total (AppsFire – Sep 09) 85% of UK iPhone owners pay for games (UK National Gamers Survey – Dec 09) 51% for Samsung, 38% for Sony Ericsson and Nokia www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Ferocious Competition www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Ferocious Competition 4,491 apps released on 18-Dec-09 (AppShopper) 80% of apps are not actively installed (AppsFire) 80,000 out of 100,000 at the time of the survey (Nov-09) Even those that are can be short-lived Flurry data: 72% of games still played after 30 days But only 23% after 60 days, and 16% after 90 days www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
3. Piracy and ip infringement www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Piracy on the App Store $450 million of lost revenues (24/7 Wall St) Based on 75% piracy rate and 1.5bn illegal downloads But also assuming that only 10% of those were ‘lost’ sales Rally Master Pro: 95% first-day piracy rate Tap-Fu: 80% first-week piracy rate Orbital: 80% first-week dropping to 24% later Pirate behaviour and first-day / week spike www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Solutions to Piracy? There is no catch-all solution. Sorry. Turn pirates into paying customers - in-app payments Send takedown requests (i.e. Whack-a-Mole) Ask Apple to do something. But what? Music – part of the solution is providing better-value and more appealing consumer services. With rich games selling for $0.99 on a slick store, though... www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
IP infringement Several  high-profile examples of IP battles Edge / Edgy / Killer Edge Racing Stoneloops of Jurassica v Luxor MarioTD / Duck Hunt / BreakClassic / Super Pong 2 Apple currently playing judge and jury The more high-profile iPhone gaming is, the more lawsuits we can expect to see www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
4. Pricing evolution www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Prices. How low can they go? 2008-09: Developer complaints about dive to 99c Late 2009: Concerted efforts to buck the trend EA holding onto its premium prices Canabalt establishing $2.99 success for casual game Social games bundling points up to $99.99 Yet price cuts now standard marketing practice ‘Peggling’ down to 99c for limited period Will 2010 break the $9.99 price barrier? Leaked Assassin’s Creed 2 at $11.99... www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Top Paid Games chart Avg Price: $2.34 11 games at 99c www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Top Grossing Games chart www.iphonegamesbulletin.com ,[object Object]
2 games at 99c
One free game,[object Object]
What About Advertising? In-app advertising fuelling big acquisitions Apple/Quattro and Google/AdMob Could developers be caught in the middle of a battle? Exclusive deals – AdMob/Tapulous (Sep-09) Need more success stories from developers Backflip Studios - $125k a month from ads (Nov-09) Separate trend: advergames Reebok iSprint Real Racing GTI Sirocco 24H Challenge Waterslide Extreme www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
5. Promotion & discovery www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Promotion 2009: Pubs and devs got savvy about marketing More use of social media in particular Developer-led efforts to collaborate on marketing Appvent Calendar: 100k downloads of Navy Patrol FreeAppaDay just launched with same idea APPvertisemARTs from ustwo Cross-promotion also becoming more important Can tie in with in-app payments (ngmoco / Eliminate) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Discovery Developers have focused on App Store charts Marketing strategies based on ‘get into the top 100’ Apple’s Genius has been low-profile since launch Third-party services filling the gap Chorus / Chomp / Appolicious / Apptizr Mplayit / AppClassics / AppStoreHQ www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
6. Social and connectivity www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Social Games Platforms Fierce competition: OpenFeint, Scoreloop, Plus+, Crystal, AGON Online, GameSpy... Difference emerging: white-label v brand Own-brand iPhone apps for OpenFeint and rivals This space is seeing investment Aug: $2.8m funding for Scoreloop Oct: DeNa invested in Aurora Feint Emerging value as promotional platforms OpenFeint Gold scheme / AGON consumer site www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
iPhone + Facebook So far, Facebook/iPhone links have been limited Facebook Connect used mainly for viral buzz Playfish/ Zynga / Playdom not taking App Store by storm Cross-Platform games: Anytime Pool, Who Has The Biggest Brain, Bumper Stars BUT: big iPhone/mobile firms investing in Facebook Glu built a social gaming team in 2009 Ngmoco recruited ex MySpace SVP Digital Chocolate’s NanoStars concept www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
7. Publishing shake-up www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
New Publishers Coming In Console firms now interested in mobile GTA: Chinatown Wars out this week Activision released Call of Duty: World At War: Zombies Ubisoft self-publishing, rather than licensing to Gameloft Codemasters back in after exiting J2ME market But iPhone isn’t just about the console publishers Developers seeing opportunity to self-publish Social games firms may ramp up in 2010 Casual publishers like PopCap already punching their weight Web Flash studios, iTV gaming firms... iPhone is a battleground more than DS and PSP www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
iPhone Firms Going Out Games can build buzz on iPhone then extend Fieldrunners went to PSP Minis, then mobile WiiWare, Xbox Live Arcade, Facebook, PC... Other smartphone platforms courting iPhone developers Multiple platforms will be increasingly important Make more money if prices are higher Make more money if competition is less intense Make more money if iPhone game tanks In 2010, we’ll be talking more about cross-platform developers/publishers for whom iPhone is a base www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
iPhone v PSP Minis Pricing www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Developers Skilling Up Developers have been self-publishing since the early days of the App Store BUT now they’re becoming publishers too TAG Games  and B-Boy Brawl Bulkypix publishing several games 2009 – became clear there IS a role for publishers Less about the mechanics of publishing, and more about the marketing www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Who’s Making Money? Source: Top 20 App Store charts, 13-Jan-09 www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
8. Apple as platform owner www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
App Store Improvements Top Grossing chart to highlight biggest earners Genius for Apps to help discovery Redesigned App Store pages in iTunes More priority to screenshots Only first paragraph of description is shown Harder to find genres? Halved the price of iPod touch software update More transparency in approvals (but enough?) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
But what next? Will Apple publish more first-party games? Recruiting Video Game Artist for ‘interactive multimedia’ Previously hired Xbox senior director of strategy Will Apple launch its own social games service? M&A expert on board – could it buy a social platform? Will Apple take more control of in-app ads? $275m Quattro Wireless deal announced in January What now for developers using AdMob units? What will the iSlate mean for gaming? www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
9. Ipod touch’s importance www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
iPod Touch For Games “What customers told us was, they started to see it as a games machine...” – Steve Jobs iPod Touch is the real rival to DS and PSP, not iPhone Downloads outstripped iPhone by 172% at Christmas Up by 900% on Christmas Day itself (Flurry) iPod Touch users download 18 apps a month ,[object Object],Implications: connectivity not a given Nor is latest OS – 32% below 3.0 in December www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
iTouch Christmas www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
10. Rise of the not-quite-game www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
Not Quite Games, But... Foursquare / Gowalla / MyTown / Rummble Turning real-world social lives into virtual games Attracting significant investment from VCs Foursquare one check-in a second / 450k MyTown users Augmented Reality Layar, Junaio, Sekai Camera, Wikitude What games are possible – and how niche are they? Juniper: $732m by 2014 with games leading the way Multiplayer competitive fitness iSpeedRunner – train but also compare times www.iphonegamesbulletin.com

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10 Trends in iPhone Gaming

  • 1. 10 Current Trends in iPhone Gaming Stuart Dredge Mobile Entertainment / iPhone Games Bulletin
  • 2. Who Am I? UK journalist covering mobile, games and digital entertainment Mobile Entertainment / Music Ally Also Sunday Times, Recombu, What Mobile And my own things... www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 3. iPhone Games Bulletin Launched in June 2009 Daily free email newsletter offering iPhone games industry news and analysis Sign up at www.iphonegamesbulletin.com Also www.islatepicks.com (tablet tech and apps) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 4. 1. The iphone games goldrush www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 5. The Big Numbers Addressable base of 50m+ devices 30m iPhones and 20m iPod touches More than 3 billion App Store downloads 7.4m iPhones sold in Q3 2009 17.8% share of smartphone market (Canalys) 2.5% share of ALL global handsets (Strategy Analytics) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 6. Developers Striking It Rich 10m Paid iPhone games sold by Gameloft since the launch of the App Store $1,687 Revenues per hour of dvpt time forNimbleBit’s Scoops ($269,929 total) 2m Tap Tap Revenge 3 downloads in a week last Christmas after going free 10 days How long it took Playmesh to rack up 1m free downloads of iFarm 13.5m Downloads of Backflip Studios games in seven months ($1.75m of revenue) 79,422 Doodle Jump’s sales on Christmas Day alone www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 7. Analysts’ Big Numbers $2.8 billion iPhone games revenues in 2014 – 24% of handheld market (DFC) 18.7 billion App downloads in 2014 – of which 20% will be from Apple devices (Ovum) 610 million Paid apps in first 2bn iPhone downloads – generating $900m of developer revenues (Pinch Media) 36 million Number of iPhones that Apple will sell in 2010 (Piper Jaffray) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 8. 2. Heavy usage but ferocious competition www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 9. Heavy Usage 72% of iPhone users have downloaded 10 or more apps (Compete) Average user has downloaded 65 apps for their device, spending $80 in total (AppsFire – Sep 09) 85% of UK iPhone owners pay for games (UK National Gamers Survey – Dec 09) 51% for Samsung, 38% for Sony Ericsson and Nokia www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 11. Ferocious Competition 4,491 apps released on 18-Dec-09 (AppShopper) 80% of apps are not actively installed (AppsFire) 80,000 out of 100,000 at the time of the survey (Nov-09) Even those that are can be short-lived Flurry data: 72% of games still played after 30 days But only 23% after 60 days, and 16% after 90 days www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 12. 3. Piracy and ip infringement www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 13. Piracy on the App Store $450 million of lost revenues (24/7 Wall St) Based on 75% piracy rate and 1.5bn illegal downloads But also assuming that only 10% of those were ‘lost’ sales Rally Master Pro: 95% first-day piracy rate Tap-Fu: 80% first-week piracy rate Orbital: 80% first-week dropping to 24% later Pirate behaviour and first-day / week spike www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 14. Solutions to Piracy? There is no catch-all solution. Sorry. Turn pirates into paying customers - in-app payments Send takedown requests (i.e. Whack-a-Mole) Ask Apple to do something. But what? Music – part of the solution is providing better-value and more appealing consumer services. With rich games selling for $0.99 on a slick store, though... www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 15. IP infringement Several high-profile examples of IP battles Edge / Edgy / Killer Edge Racing Stoneloops of Jurassica v Luxor MarioTD / Duck Hunt / BreakClassic / Super Pong 2 Apple currently playing judge and jury The more high-profile iPhone gaming is, the more lawsuits we can expect to see www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 16. 4. Pricing evolution www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 17. Prices. How low can they go? 2008-09: Developer complaints about dive to 99c Late 2009: Concerted efforts to buck the trend EA holding onto its premium prices Canabalt establishing $2.99 success for casual game Social games bundling points up to $99.99 Yet price cuts now standard marketing practice ‘Peggling’ down to 99c for limited period Will 2010 break the $9.99 price barrier? Leaked Assassin’s Creed 2 at $11.99... www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 18. Top Paid Games chart Avg Price: $2.34 11 games at 99c www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 19.
  • 21.
  • 22. What About Advertising? In-app advertising fuelling big acquisitions Apple/Quattro and Google/AdMob Could developers be caught in the middle of a battle? Exclusive deals – AdMob/Tapulous (Sep-09) Need more success stories from developers Backflip Studios - $125k a month from ads (Nov-09) Separate trend: advergames Reebok iSprint Real Racing GTI Sirocco 24H Challenge Waterslide Extreme www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 23. 5. Promotion & discovery www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 24. Promotion 2009: Pubs and devs got savvy about marketing More use of social media in particular Developer-led efforts to collaborate on marketing Appvent Calendar: 100k downloads of Navy Patrol FreeAppaDay just launched with same idea APPvertisemARTs from ustwo Cross-promotion also becoming more important Can tie in with in-app payments (ngmoco / Eliminate) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 25. Discovery Developers have focused on App Store charts Marketing strategies based on ‘get into the top 100’ Apple’s Genius has been low-profile since launch Third-party services filling the gap Chorus / Chomp / Appolicious / Apptizr Mplayit / AppClassics / AppStoreHQ www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 26. 6. Social and connectivity www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 27. Social Games Platforms Fierce competition: OpenFeint, Scoreloop, Plus+, Crystal, AGON Online, GameSpy... Difference emerging: white-label v brand Own-brand iPhone apps for OpenFeint and rivals This space is seeing investment Aug: $2.8m funding for Scoreloop Oct: DeNa invested in Aurora Feint Emerging value as promotional platforms OpenFeint Gold scheme / AGON consumer site www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 28. iPhone + Facebook So far, Facebook/iPhone links have been limited Facebook Connect used mainly for viral buzz Playfish/ Zynga / Playdom not taking App Store by storm Cross-Platform games: Anytime Pool, Who Has The Biggest Brain, Bumper Stars BUT: big iPhone/mobile firms investing in Facebook Glu built a social gaming team in 2009 Ngmoco recruited ex MySpace SVP Digital Chocolate’s NanoStars concept www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 29. 7. Publishing shake-up www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 30. New Publishers Coming In Console firms now interested in mobile GTA: Chinatown Wars out this week Activision released Call of Duty: World At War: Zombies Ubisoft self-publishing, rather than licensing to Gameloft Codemasters back in after exiting J2ME market But iPhone isn’t just about the console publishers Developers seeing opportunity to self-publish Social games firms may ramp up in 2010 Casual publishers like PopCap already punching their weight Web Flash studios, iTV gaming firms... iPhone is a battleground more than DS and PSP www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 31. iPhone Firms Going Out Games can build buzz on iPhone then extend Fieldrunners went to PSP Minis, then mobile WiiWare, Xbox Live Arcade, Facebook, PC... Other smartphone platforms courting iPhone developers Multiple platforms will be increasingly important Make more money if prices are higher Make more money if competition is less intense Make more money if iPhone game tanks In 2010, we’ll be talking more about cross-platform developers/publishers for whom iPhone is a base www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 32. iPhone v PSP Minis Pricing www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 33. Developers Skilling Up Developers have been self-publishing since the early days of the App Store BUT now they’re becoming publishers too TAG Games and B-Boy Brawl Bulkypix publishing several games 2009 – became clear there IS a role for publishers Less about the mechanics of publishing, and more about the marketing www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 34. Who’s Making Money? Source: Top 20 App Store charts, 13-Jan-09 www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 35. 8. Apple as platform owner www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 36. App Store Improvements Top Grossing chart to highlight biggest earners Genius for Apps to help discovery Redesigned App Store pages in iTunes More priority to screenshots Only first paragraph of description is shown Harder to find genres? Halved the price of iPod touch software update More transparency in approvals (but enough?) www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 37. But what next? Will Apple publish more first-party games? Recruiting Video Game Artist for ‘interactive multimedia’ Previously hired Xbox senior director of strategy Will Apple launch its own social games service? M&A expert on board – could it buy a social platform? Will Apple take more control of in-app ads? $275m Quattro Wireless deal announced in January What now for developers using AdMob units? What will the iSlate mean for gaming? www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 38. 9. Ipod touch’s importance www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 39.
  • 41. 10. Rise of the not-quite-game www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 42. Not Quite Games, But... Foursquare / Gowalla / MyTown / Rummble Turning real-world social lives into virtual games Attracting significant investment from VCs Foursquare one check-in a second / 450k MyTown users Augmented Reality Layar, Junaio, Sekai Camera, Wikitude What games are possible – and how niche are they? Juniper: $732m by 2014 with games leading the way Multiplayer competitive fitness iSpeedRunner – train but also compare times www.iphonegamesbulletin.com
  • 43. CHEERS! This presentation will be available on www.iphonegamesbulletin.com Contact me: sdredge@gmail.com www.iphonegamesbulletin.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Avg price is $4.74, and only two 99c gamesThe most popular iPhone game is only the seventh best in terms of revenuesSweet spots selling shedloads of a premium game like Call of Duty or The Sims 3 – and then $2.99 selling a casual gameAlso note: 15 of the top 20 Top Grossing Apps on the App Store are games