About This Presentation • I
put this together from publicly available stats, surveys and research into Apple’s iPad tablet. • The idea is to provide an overview of the device, as it prepares to go on sale in the US. • Who am I? UK-based journalist Stuart Dredge. I write for Mobile Entertainment, Music Ally and other publications. • I also run a daily newsletter, iPhone Games Bulletin, which covers the iPhone (and now iPad) games industry.
Early Sales Estimates • Investor
Village’s AAPL Sanity Board estimated that Apple sold nearly 120,000 iPads on its first day of pre-orders (Source) – 69% of those were Wi-Fi only models according to its reckoning – Sales were split equally between the 16GB, 32GB and 64GB models • Daniel Tello, part of that group, claimed that 240k iPads had been pre-ordered by Fri-26-Mar (Source) – These figures don’t include reservations for in-store pickup
Consumer Buying Intentions • 18%
of all consumers expressed an interest in buying an iPad, although that rose to 27% for 18-34 year-olds (NPD Group) – 9% of all consumers said they were ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ likely to buy one in the next six months • 27% of 18-34 year-olds expressed an interest in buying one – 10% of them said they were ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ likely to buy in the next six months – 57% of them said pricing was their main reason to not buy – 51% said they’d ‘rather use a notebook or netbook instead’ • 24% of Apple owners were ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ interested – 10% said they were ‘extremely’ or ‘very’ likely to buy in the next six months – 37% of Apple owners cited ‘liking the Apple brand’ as top reason to buy
Consumer Buying Intentions • When
comScore surveyed US internet users in mid-March, 1% had already pre-ordered an iPad, while 15% were seriously considering buying one in the next six months (Source) • iPad’s awareness and purchase intention ratings are very similar to those of Amazon’s Kindle.
Likely Consumer Usage • comScore
asked US consumers what they’d be most likely to do on an iPad, with internet and email the two most popular choices (Source) • Music, films and books were quite popular, but apps were surprisingly low.
Likely Consumer Usage • More
than half (52.3%) of US smartphone users plan to use a tablet device to conduct work (Source) – 48.2% said they plan to watch TV/films – 35.4% say that plan to play games • A survey by RBC/ChangeWave found that internet and email are the most popular likely uses (Source)
Analyst Predictions • Barclays Capital
thinks Apple will sell 1.2m iPads in Q1 2010 (i.e. pre- orders) and 5m for 2010 as a whole (Source) • BMO Capital predicts 7.2m iPad sales in Apple’s fiscal 2011 (Source) – BMO also thinks iPad will take 11% of the netbook market in 2010 • Canaccord Adams expects 1.2m iPad sales in fiscal 2010, and 3.5m in fiscal 2011 (Source) • Needham & Company predicts 2m sales in fiscal 2010, and 6m in fiscal 2011 (Source) • Piper Jaffray predicts 3-4m sales in iPad’s first 12 months on sale, and double that the next year (Source) • FBR Capital Markets claims that 5m iPads will be manufactured in the first half of 2010 (Source) • Broadpoint.AmTech thinks content sales will be 10% of total iPad hardware revenue by Dec-10, and 30% by Dec-11. (Source) – The company predicts 4m units in 2010 calendar year
iPad Applications • In mid-March,
44% of apps being tested on iPad devices were games according to Flurry (Source) • The analytics firm had previously reported that iPhone project starts tripled in January, when the iPad was unveiled.
iPad Gaming • When PocketGamer.biz
analysed its confirmed list of iPad launch games, Puzzle was the most popular genre (Source) • 65% of them were iPhone ports, with indie developers the biggest source (see next page)
Essential Reading for Developers •
Matt Legend Gemmell’s in-depth blog post on iPad application design, and user interface conventions. • Notes on iPad UI conventions – an excellent 53-photo Flickr set with notes.
Thanks For Reading! • Mobile
Entertainment’s iPad section carries regular news and analysis of iPad and the tablet market. • If you’re making, investing in or tracking iPad games, my iPhone Games Bulletin is a free service – read a sample and sign up if you like it! • I’ve published other presentations on Android; Trends in iPhone Gaming; iPhone Casual Games; and a comparative analysis of different app stores. • Contact me: firstname.lastname@example.org