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5 app stores under the microscope

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5 app stores under the microscope

  1.  
  2. Five app stores under the microscope Stuart Dredge
  3. Who am I? <ul><li>UK journalist covering mobile, games and digital entertainment </li></ul><ul><li>Mobile Entertainment / Music Ally </li></ul><ul><li>Pocket Gamer / Recombu / What Mobile </li></ul><ul><li>iPhone Games Bulletin </li></ul><ul><li>First job in games – Official Dreamcast Magazine </li></ul><ul><li>I wouldn’t get a job as a motivational speaker </li></ul>
  4. Key ideas for today <ul><li>Is there life beyond iPhone and its App Store? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Two contenders: Android and BlackBerry </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Old handheld dogs learning new digital tricks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>PSP Minis and DSiWare </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The new breed of digital games developers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cross-platform, independent, own-IP... </li></ul></ul>
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  6. App Store – Key figures <ul><li>Addressable base of 50 million </li></ul><ul><li>100k apps available (20k games) </li></ul><ul><li>More than 2bn downloads so far </li></ul><ul><li>iPhone games market worth $2.8bn by 2014 (DFC) </li></ul><ul><li>Avg user has spent $80 on 65 apps (AppsFire) </li></ul><ul><li>Avg user downloads 10/18 apps a month (AdMob) </li></ul><ul><li>90% browse and download on the device (AdMob) </li></ul><ul><li>30-day retention rate for games – 72% (Flurry) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But 90-day retention rate is 16% </li></ul></ul>
  7. App Store Games genre mix Source: Mobclix (Oct 2009)
  8. App Store Top 100 Paid Games analysis (2-Nov-09) <ul><li>Own-IP is popular – 58% of Top 100 Paid chart </li></ul><ul><li>Pricing pressure – Avg price in Top 100 is $2.89 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But avg price in Top 10 is $2.09 (and $1.21 without Rock Band) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>45 games cost $0.99 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rapid churn – 59% of Top 100 released since August </li></ul><ul><li>Level playing field – 47% indie, 38% publishers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>EA has 13 titles in Top 100, Gameloft has 12 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Glu, DChoc, Tapulous have 3 apiece </li></ul></ul>
  9. App Store Top 100 Paid Games - Brand
  10. App Store Top 100 Paid Games - Price
  11. App Store Top 100 Paid Games - Source
  12. App Store – Key trends <ul><li>Move to freemium model – free plus in-app payments </li></ul><ul><li>Social media marketing increasingly important </li></ul><ul><li>Plethora of social/community platforms </li></ul><ul><li>Fear of piracy – up to 95% first-week piracy rates </li></ul><ul><li>March of the clones and copyright disputes </li></ul><ul><li>New recommendation tools and services </li></ul><ul><li>Return of the publisher model </li></ul><ul><li>Advergames making a comeback with big brands </li></ul>
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  14. Android Market– Key figures <ul><li>12+ Android phones available </li></ul><ul><li>12k apps in Android Market </li></ul><ul><li>$5m of app revenues a month (AdMob) </li></ul><ul><li>HTC, Motorola, Sony Ericsson... </li></ul><ul><li>Avg user has downloaded 40 apps (Sep 09) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>80% of users download at least one app a week </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Predicted 8m phones in 2009 (Strategy Analytics) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Currently 3.5% share of global smartphones (Canalys) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>By 2012 – 76m phones and 14.5% share (Gartner) </li></ul>
  15. Android Market – Genre mix (Oct 09) Source: AndroLib
  16. Android Market Top 100 Paid Games analysis (2-Nov-09) <ul><li>Note – based on HTC Hero, which is quite new </li></ul><ul><li>Own-IP dominant – 95% of Top 100 Paid chart </li></ul><ul><li>Cheaper than iPhone – Avg price in Top 100 is $2.67 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But avg price in Top 10 is $3.42 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>20 games cost $0.99 – much more even spread </li></ul></ul><ul><li>86% indie, 14% publisher </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12 of the Top 100 are by named individuals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Gameloft 2, Glu 2, EA 0 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Four of the top 20 are retro console emulators! </li></ul>
  17. Android MarketTop 100 Paid Games - Brand
  18. Android Market Top 100 Paid Games - Price
  19. Android Market– Key trends <ul><li>Developer unrest over dominance of free apps </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Android 1.6 separated out paid games – reports of 50% uplift </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Still concerns over short descriptions / technical gremlins </li></ul><ul><li>Huge excitement from handset firms and operators </li></ul><ul><li>BUT Huge excitement = huge fragmentation? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Google: “Developers don’t care...” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Native Android games yet to take off </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Middleware helping bridge the gap – e.g. Airplay 4.0 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Role of the operators remains to be seen </li></ul>
  20.  
  21. BlackBerry App World Key figures <ul><li>32m BlackBerry subscribers (Sep 09) </li></ul><ul><li>Sold 8.3m devices in its last financial quarter </li></ul><ul><ul><li>20.6% smartphone market share in Q3 09 (Canalys) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>More than 80% of its new users were consumers </li></ul><ul><li>More than 3,100 apps now available </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More than 900 games – 29.3% of the catalogue </li></ul></ul>
  22. BlackBerry App World – Genre mix (Nov-09) Source: BlackBerry App World webstore
  23. BlackBerry App World Top 100 Paid Games analysis (2-Nov-09) <ul><li>Own-IP big again – 62% of the chart </li></ul><ul><li>Average price in Top 100 is $4.77 – more than rivals </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RIM’s $2.99 basement price is partly the reason </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>51% of the games cost $4.99 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>54% indie, 43% publisher – a more even split </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gameloft (14), EA (8), DChoc (6), Glu (5) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But also Concrete Software (9), Magmic (6) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Very casual towards the top of the chart – time killers </li></ul>
  24. App World Top 100 Paid Games - Brand
  25. App World Top 100 Paid Games - Price
  26. App World Top 100 Paid Games - Source
  27. BlackBerry App World – Key trends <ul><li>So far – port J2ME games and charge a premium </li></ul><ul><li>RIM’s focus has been more on music and social apps </li></ul><ul><li>Not much talk about native / 3D BlackBerry gaming </li></ul><ul><li>BUT – very big in the North American market </li></ul><ul><li>RIM keen to get apps to use more platform features </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Push in particular – see U2 Mobile Album </li></ul></ul>
  28. Top 10s – iPhone v Android v BlackBerry Date: 2 November 2009
  29.  
  30. PSP Minis – Key Facts <ul><li>Launched in October alongside PSPgo </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Also available for older PSPs though – 50m install base </li></ul></ul><ul><li>19 games available so far on the UK store </li></ul><ul><li>All titles under 100MB in file size and under $9.99 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Publishers set their own pricing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sony promising 3-5 days QA / approval </li></ul><ul><li>No ability for multiplayer, DLC or updates </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ It’s something we will consider in the future” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Being presented explicitly as response to iPhone </li></ul>
  31. PSP Minis –Analysis / Trends <ul><li>Average price in UK: £3.49 ($5.79-ish) </li></ul><ul><li>Indie developers, mobile firms and... EA </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gameloft, Hands-On, Subatomic Studios </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Other console firms not there at launch </li></ul></ul><ul><li>16 of the 19 games are own-IP </li></ul><ul><li>Sony reported massive week-one downloads spike </li></ul><ul><li>Pricing has been compared negatively to iPhone... </li></ul>
  32. Comparative Pricing: iPhone v PSP Minis
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  34. DSiWare – Key Facts <ul><li>Launched alongside DSi in April 2009 (Europe / US) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Unlike PSP Minis, not available to older DS handhelds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Estimated install base of over 10 million devices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>49 games/apps available in the UK right now </li></ul><ul><li>Uses DSi Points to buy games – 1,000pts for £9 </li></ul>
  35. DSiWare – Analysis / Trends <ul><li>Games priced at 200, 500 and 800 points </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Equivalent to £1.80, £4.50 and £7.20 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>33 of the 49 titles are from Nintendo </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Spin-offs from existing brands – Kawashima, Animal Crossing... </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Not always games – e.g. Mario Clock </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Gameloft has five titles, Firemint bringing Flight Control </li></ul><ul><li>How does pricing compare to iPhone?... </li></ul>
  36. Comparative Pricing: iPhone v DSiWare
  37. What does it all mean? <ul><li>iPhone has huge momentum with developers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BUT: downward pricing pressure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BUT: ferocious competition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Android and BlackBerry increasingly appealing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Big install bases and promotion from mobile operators </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Less competition on their App Stores, and higher prices </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Courting iPhone developers like billy-o </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BUT: handset fragmentation rearing its head </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BUT: not as powerful as iPhone... Yet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BUT: Less chance to benefit from social media buzz </li></ul></ul>
  38. What does it all mean? <ul><li>PSP Minis and DSiWare offer route into handheld </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sony and Nintendo courting iPhone developers (sort of) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ability to reuse assets – not a huge leap visually </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Higher prices – and gamers who may be happy to pay them </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BUT: not as easy as just porting games across </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Don’t forget there are other app stores too </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ovi Store (Nokia) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Windows Marketplace for Mobile (Microsoft) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Palm App Catalog </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vodafone 360, Orange Application Store... </li></ul></ul>
  39. The Big Picture <ul><li>Rise of the cross-platform digital games developer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(or publisher, obviously) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Mobile + handheld + web/Facebook + console </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Connect2Media and Go Go Rescue Squad </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Digital Chocolate and Tower Bloxx </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Subatomic Studios and Fieldrunners </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Firemint and Flight Control </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Example: Gameloft and Brain Challenge </li></ul></ul><ul><li>iPhone and Facebook emerging as hit creation platforms </li></ul>
  40. Thanks! <ul><li>Contact me: [email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>iPhone Games Bulletin: www.iphonegamesbulletin.com </li></ul><ul><li>This presentation will be online later today at www.mobile-ent.biz </li></ul>

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