The Science of Start
Session 3: Key Resources




                           paulshawsmith
                              scientific business strategy
1
    Physical




               paulshawsmith
                  scientific business strategy
Lease vs. buy
“When we started the airline 25 years age this year. I went to Boeing. I
           AMAR BHIDE
    remember the telephone call.
    “Hello this is Richard Branson, wonder whether you could sell me a
    second hand 747?”
    “What is the name of your business?”
    “Virgin.”
    “What do you do?”
    “We have a record company and have great bands like the sex pistols the
    rolling Stones.“
    And then there was a long pause, and instead of putting the phone down.
    He said, “We will send a salesman over and as long as your airline goes
    further than your name suggests we will let you have a plane.”

    The key point there is we said to Boeing we don’t know if this is going to
    work. We realise that this is risky, and we want to be able to hand the
    plane back after 12 months if it doesn’t work out. And that is the element
    of protecting the downside and that is the critical thing.

                                                              paulshawsmith
                                                                 scientific business strategy
Source: Wall Street Journal Video, 2009-10-15
Barter
James Dyson & the vacuum companies
Use second rate resources (Dial up internet)
Use second rate resources (Off the shelf servers)
2
    Intellectual




                   paulshawsmith
                      scientific business strategy
Daniel Saksenberg
                       Actuary and specialist in predictive analytics
                       Daniel Saksenberg specializes in machine learning and
                       artificial intelligence. He has developed models for life
                       insurance, forensics, anti-money laundering, offshore
                       financial centers and transfer pricing. His models are use
                       by corporations around the world.




Partner with experts
Hire ex-employees (Fairchild & Intel)
Reverse engineering (B-29 & T-u4)
3
    Human




            paulshawsmith
               scientific business strategy
Source: Hambrick and Crozier (1985)



Give employees a financial stake
Use affordable loss with employees
Broad search
“To get hired in this organization was a joke. If
       you came in and we needed a warm
      body, you were hired. Literally for any
  position. Our turnover was high because we
     had to fire many employees… In a small
  company, unfortunately, such problems are
  unavoidable. We could not afford committed
                   professionals”


                                           Source: Bhide (2000)



Use second rate employees
4
    Financial




                paulshawsmith
                   scientific business strategy
Marketing understanding




                            How
                          investors
                            make
                          decisions




                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
“Start ups need 2 – 3 times longer to validate
    their market than most founders expect.
   This underestimation creates the pressure
              to scale prematurely.”




                                     Source: Start up Genome (2011)



Market Understanding
Marketing understanding

   Realistic forecasts




                            How
                          investors
                            make
                          decisions




                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
“Start ups that haven’t raised money over-
     estimate their market size by 100x and
    often misinterpret their market as new.”




                                    Source: Start up Genome (2011)



Realistic Forecasts
Marketing understanding

   Realistic forecasts

  Experience of team

                            How
                          investors
                            make
                          decisions




                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
5-year failure rate?



No Industry
Experience
                                                                 54.5 %



 Industry
Experience
                                              25.5 %



                                                         paulshawsmith
                                                            scientific business strategy
 Source: Bruderl, et al. (1992)
Financial   Operations
Sales                                  Manager




                                 paulshawsmith
                                    scientific business strategy
Marketing understanding

   Realistic forecasts

  Experience of team

                            How
 Size of founding team
                          investors
                            make
                          decisions




                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
Twenty employees?



                                     0.4%




                                                   3.3%


                                                        paulshawsmith
                                                           scientific business strategy
Source: Stam and Schutjens (2004)
5-year failure rate?



                    >                                           54.2.%




                      +               13.1%



                                                        paulshawsmith
                                                           scientific business strategy
Source: Bruderl, et al. (1992)
3%
                                               4%
                                       7%


                                                                          1 founder
                                                         48%
                                                                          2 founders
                                                                          3 founders
                                                                          4 founders
                                                                          5 + founders
                               38%




                                                               paulshawsmith
                                                                  scientific business strategy
Source: Aldrich, Nancy, Carter & Ruef (2004)
Marketing understanding

   Realistic forecasts

  Experience of team

                            How
 Size of founding team
                          investors
                            make
  Market growth rate      decisions




                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
1996                         2006

Growth in online advertising
Marketing understanding

   Realistic forecasts

  Experience of team

                            How
 Size of founding team
                          investors
                            make
  Market growth rate      decisions

  No. Of competitors




                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
Competition faced by Inc. 500 start ups



      Small companies                                         (73%)



      No direct competition             (18%)



     Mid-sized companies         (5%)




      Fortune 500               (4%)



                                                paulshawsmith
                                                   scientific business strategy
Source: Bhide (2000)
Marketing understanding

   Realistic forecasts

  Experience of team

                            How
 Size of founding team
                          investors
                            make
  Market growth rate      decisions

  No. Of competitors

Competitive advantage




                                  paulshawsmith
                                     scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
INC 500 vs. TOTAL STARTS BY INDUSTRY
Source: Shane (2009)


                           Industry      Number of Inc 500   Firm starts          Percent of Starts
                                              firms
Pulp mills                                       6                 33                   18.182
Computer and office equipment                   99               2359                    4.197
Guided missiles, space vehicles, parts           2                 60                    3.333
Nonferrous rolling and drawing                  14                581                    2.410
Railroad car rental                              3                136                    2.206
Measuring and controlling devices               49               2482                    1.974
Paper mills                                      3                125                    2.400
Search and navigation devices                    6                310                    1.935
General industrial machinery                    26               2173                    1.197
Photographic equipment and supplies              7                646                    1.084
Manifold business forms                          3                281                    1.068
Household appliances                             4                390                    1.026
Electrical industrial apparatus                 11               1080                    1.019
Legal services                                  10             129207                    0.008
Eating and drinking places                      34             494731                    0.007
Carpentry and floor work contractors             4              66383                    0.006
Real estate operators                            5              90042                    0.006
Hotels and motels                                2              39177                    0.005
Painting and paper contractors                   2              43987                    0.005
Retail bakeries                                  1              22165                    0.005
Grocery stores                                   5             112473                    0.004
Used merchandise stores                          1              24442                    0.004
Automotive repair shops                          5             124725                    0.004
Beauty shops                                     3              79081                    0.004
Residential care                                 1              27710                    0.004
Videotape rental                                 1              27793                    0.004




                                                                           paulshawsmith
                                                                              scientific business strategy
COMPUTER AND OFFICE
    EQUIPMENT




 Inc 500              Total start ups
   99                      2,359




                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
EATING AND DRINKING
      PLACES




 Inc 500              Total start ups
   34                    494,731




                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND INC 500
       Source: Shane (2009)




Computer and Office Equipment   Eating and Drinking Places
           (1/25)                       (1/14,550)




                                           paulshawsmith
                                              scientific business strategy
INDUSTRY AND SURVIVAL (4 YEARS)
Source: Mata and Portugal (1994)



  Glass Products                                                                            85.7
  Spinning, weaving and finishing of cottons, artificial and synthetic fibre                81.0
  Spinning, weaving and finishing of wool                                                   76.9
  Slaughtering                                                                              68.0
  Knitting Industry                                                                         65.7
   Cut Stone and Stone Products                                                             65.6
  Footwear n.e.c.                                                                           65.4
  Iron and Steel Industry                                                                   64.6
  Tanning and Dressing of Leather                                                           63.6
  Machinery for the industry n.e.c.                                                         61.5
  Radio and TV Communication Equipment                                                      47.4
  Fabricated Metal Products n.e.c.                                                          46.7
  Manufacturing n.e.c.                                                                      44.4
  Cement Products                                                                           42.7
  Clay Products for Construction                                                            42.1
  Pottery                                                                                   41.2
  Household Textile Products                                                                40.9
  Made-to-Measure Clothing                                                                  37.9
  Pastry                                                                                    34.7
  Fish Preserving                                                                           25.0


                                                                               paulshawsmith
                                                                                  scientific business strategy
Marketing understanding

    Realistic forecasts

   Experience of team

                                How
  Size of founding team
                              investors
                                make
   Market growth rate         decisions

    No. Of competitors

 Competitive advantage

Referrals and introductions




                                      paulshawsmith
                                         scientific business strategy
Being referred by indirect social ties
          increased the likelihood of an
          entrepreneur receiving funding.




                                        Source: Shane and Stuart (2002)


Weak ties and funding
5
    Social




             paulshawsmith
                scientific business strategy
130
Six degrees of separation
16,900
                            130
Six degrees of separation
2,197,000
                       16,900
                            130
Six degrees of separation
285,610,000

              2,197,000
                       16,900
                            130
Six degrees of separation
37,129,300,000


          285,610,000

               2,197,000
                       16,900
                            130
Six degrees of separation
12
     4,8 x 10



      37,129,300,000


            285,610,000

                     2,197,000
                          16,900
                                 130
Six degrees of separation
16.7%         At least once a week




       55.6%
                     More than once a year
                     but less than once a week




        27.8%
                     Once a year or less




Who did you find out about your job from?
50%

Milgram stockbroker experiment
20


                       108

Are you a connector?
Ask for referrals and introductions
Attend social events
Do event follow ups
Help others
Create a database of contacts
Use social networks (Vinny Lignham)
Incubator average         Industry average
      (3/20 fail)              (10/20 fail)



                               Source: Phillips (2002) and Audretch (1995)


Develop a support network
Advice from accountants 3< /yr   No advice from accountants
      (16/20 survived )               (9/20 survived)



                                                Source: Watson (2007)


Seek advice
Network range = How often an entrepreneur networks
             x How widely an entrepreneur networks




                                                            Source: Watson (2007)


Don’t seek to much advice
Patrons or champions
Thought leaders
In groups of 3 – 4:


  *    For each person:


  *    Make plans on how you can acquire your dream
       resources


  *    Is there a second rate version of your dream
       resources you could more easily acquire?

  *    Can you use your current resources to acquire your
       dream resources?

  *    Time: 20 mins


Inventory your resources
In groups of 3 – 4:

  *    Make plans for the area of your business that needs
       work:
 Value proposition: Customers, lead users, thought leaders,
 industry experts
 Customer acquisition: Sales & marketing experiments
 Customer segment: Market research, customers
 Revenue stream: Pricing tests, customers
 Distribution: Channel partners
 Key resources: Partners, investors, production, development
 Key activities: Production & development experiments
 Key Partners: Partners
 Cost structure: Suppliers, production & development
 experiments, CA experiment

Plan your up coming week

06.3. tips on improving resources

  • 1.
    The Science ofStart Session 3: Key Resources paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 2.
    1 Physical paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 3.
  • 4.
    “When we startedthe airline 25 years age this year. I went to Boeing. I AMAR BHIDE remember the telephone call. “Hello this is Richard Branson, wonder whether you could sell me a second hand 747?” “What is the name of your business?” “Virgin.” “What do you do?” “We have a record company and have great bands like the sex pistols the rolling Stones.“ And then there was a long pause, and instead of putting the phone down. He said, “We will send a salesman over and as long as your airline goes further than your name suggests we will let you have a plane.” The key point there is we said to Boeing we don’t know if this is going to work. We realise that this is risky, and we want to be able to hand the plane back after 12 months if it doesn’t work out. And that is the element of protecting the downside and that is the critical thing. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Wall Street Journal Video, 2009-10-15
  • 5.
  • 6.
    James Dyson &the vacuum companies
  • 7.
    Use second rateresources (Dial up internet)
  • 8.
    Use second rateresources (Off the shelf servers)
  • 9.
    2 Intellectual paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 10.
    Daniel Saksenberg Actuary and specialist in predictive analytics Daniel Saksenberg specializes in machine learning and artificial intelligence. He has developed models for life insurance, forensics, anti-money laundering, offshore financial centers and transfer pricing. His models are use by corporations around the world. Partner with experts
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
    3 Human paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 14.
    Source: Hambrick andCrozier (1985) Give employees a financial stake
  • 15.
    Use affordable losswith employees
  • 16.
  • 17.
    “To get hiredin this organization was a joke. If you came in and we needed a warm body, you were hired. Literally for any position. Our turnover was high because we had to fire many employees… In a small company, unfortunately, such problems are unavoidable. We could not afford committed professionals” Source: Bhide (2000) Use second rate employees
  • 18.
    4 Financial paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 19.
    Marketing understanding How investors make decisions paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 20.
    “Start ups need2 – 3 times longer to validate their market than most founders expect. This underestimation creates the pressure to scale prematurely.” Source: Start up Genome (2011) Market Understanding
  • 21.
    Marketing understanding Realistic forecasts How investors make decisions paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 22.
    “Start ups thathaven’t raised money over- estimate their market size by 100x and often misinterpret their market as new.” Source: Start up Genome (2011) Realistic Forecasts
  • 23.
    Marketing understanding Realistic forecasts Experience of team How investors make decisions paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 24.
    5-year failure rate? NoIndustry Experience 54.5 % Industry Experience 25.5 % paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Bruderl, et al. (1992)
  • 25.
    Financial Operations Sales Manager paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 26.
    Marketing understanding Realistic forecasts Experience of team How Size of founding team investors make decisions paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 27.
    Twenty employees? 0.4% 3.3% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Stam and Schutjens (2004)
  • 28.
    5-year failure rate? > 54.2.% + 13.1% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Bruderl, et al. (1992)
  • 29.
    3% 4% 7% 1 founder 48% 2 founders 3 founders 4 founders 5 + founders 38% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Aldrich, Nancy, Carter & Ruef (2004)
  • 30.
    Marketing understanding Realistic forecasts Experience of team How Size of founding team investors make Market growth rate decisions paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 31.
    1996 2006 Growth in online advertising
  • 32.
    Marketing understanding Realistic forecasts Experience of team How Size of founding team investors make Market growth rate decisions No. Of competitors paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 33.
    Competition faced byInc. 500 start ups Small companies (73%) No direct competition (18%) Mid-sized companies (5%) Fortune 500 (4%) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Bhide (2000)
  • 34.
    Marketing understanding Realistic forecasts Experience of team How Size of founding team investors make Market growth rate decisions No. Of competitors Competitive advantage paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 35.
    paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 36.
    INC 500 vs.TOTAL STARTS BY INDUSTRY Source: Shane (2009) Industry Number of Inc 500 Firm starts Percent of Starts firms Pulp mills 6 33 18.182 Computer and office equipment 99 2359 4.197 Guided missiles, space vehicles, parts 2 60 3.333 Nonferrous rolling and drawing 14 581 2.410 Railroad car rental 3 136 2.206 Measuring and controlling devices 49 2482 1.974 Paper mills 3 125 2.400 Search and navigation devices 6 310 1.935 General industrial machinery 26 2173 1.197 Photographic equipment and supplies 7 646 1.084 Manifold business forms 3 281 1.068 Household appliances 4 390 1.026 Electrical industrial apparatus 11 1080 1.019 Legal services 10 129207 0.008 Eating and drinking places 34 494731 0.007 Carpentry and floor work contractors 4 66383 0.006 Real estate operators 5 90042 0.006 Hotels and motels 2 39177 0.005 Painting and paper contractors 2 43987 0.005 Retail bakeries 1 22165 0.005 Grocery stores 5 112473 0.004 Used merchandise stores 1 24442 0.004 Automotive repair shops 5 124725 0.004 Beauty shops 3 79081 0.004 Residential care 1 27710 0.004 Videotape rental 1 27793 0.004 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 37.
    COMPUTER AND OFFICE EQUIPMENT Inc 500 Total start ups 99 2,359 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 38.
    EATING AND DRINKING PLACES Inc 500 Total start ups 34 494,731 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 39.
    INDUSTRY AND INC500 Source: Shane (2009) Computer and Office Equipment Eating and Drinking Places (1/25) (1/14,550) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 40.
    INDUSTRY AND SURVIVAL(4 YEARS) Source: Mata and Portugal (1994) Glass Products 85.7 Spinning, weaving and finishing of cottons, artificial and synthetic fibre 81.0 Spinning, weaving and finishing of wool 76.9 Slaughtering 68.0 Knitting Industry 65.7 Cut Stone and Stone Products 65.6 Footwear n.e.c. 65.4 Iron and Steel Industry 64.6 Tanning and Dressing of Leather 63.6 Machinery for the industry n.e.c. 61.5 Radio and TV Communication Equipment 47.4 Fabricated Metal Products n.e.c. 46.7 Manufacturing n.e.c. 44.4 Cement Products 42.7 Clay Products for Construction 42.1 Pottery 41.2 Household Textile Products 40.9 Made-to-Measure Clothing 37.9 Pastry 34.7 Fish Preserving 25.0 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 41.
    Marketing understanding Realistic forecasts Experience of team How Size of founding team investors make Market growth rate decisions No. Of competitors Competitive advantage Referrals and introductions paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 42.
    Being referred byindirect social ties increased the likelihood of an entrepreneur receiving funding. Source: Shane and Stuart (2002) Weak ties and funding
  • 43.
    5 Social paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 44.
  • 45.
    16,900 130 Six degrees of separation
  • 46.
    2,197,000 16,900 130 Six degrees of separation
  • 47.
    285,610,000 2,197,000 16,900 130 Six degrees of separation
  • 48.
    37,129,300,000 285,610,000 2,197,000 16,900 130 Six degrees of separation
  • 49.
    12 4,8 x 10 37,129,300,000 285,610,000 2,197,000 16,900 130 Six degrees of separation
  • 50.
    16.7% At least once a week 55.6% More than once a year but less than once a week 27.8% Once a year or less Who did you find out about your job from?
  • 51.
  • 52.
    20 108 Are you a connector?
  • 53.
    Ask for referralsand introductions
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57.
    Create a databaseof contacts
  • 58.
    Use social networks(Vinny Lignham)
  • 59.
    Incubator average Industry average (3/20 fail) (10/20 fail) Source: Phillips (2002) and Audretch (1995) Develop a support network
  • 60.
    Advice from accountants3< /yr No advice from accountants (16/20 survived ) (9/20 survived) Source: Watson (2007) Seek advice
  • 61.
    Network range =How often an entrepreneur networks x How widely an entrepreneur networks Source: Watson (2007) Don’t seek to much advice
  • 62.
  • 63.
  • 64.
    In groups of3 – 4: * For each person: * Make plans on how you can acquire your dream resources * Is there a second rate version of your dream resources you could more easily acquire? * Can you use your current resources to acquire your dream resources? * Time: 20 mins Inventory your resources
  • 65.
    In groups of3 – 4: * Make plans for the area of your business that needs work: Value proposition: Customers, lead users, thought leaders, industry experts Customer acquisition: Sales & marketing experiments Customer segment: Market research, customers Revenue stream: Pricing tests, customers Distribution: Channel partners Key resources: Partners, investors, production, development Key activities: Production & development experiments Key Partners: Partners Cost structure: Suppliers, production & development experiments, CA experiment Plan your up coming week

Editor's Notes

  • #36 Take for example a study done when the looked at an Inc. 500 businesses in US. The Inc. 500 is a list of the 500 most entrepreneurial business in the US.
  • #61 Take for example a study done at the on over 5,000 firms that looked at whether firms sought advice from an their accountant. Firm which did seek advice had a 70% higher odds of surviving then firms which did not seek advice.