An introduction to the climate change and implications for the shrimp culture sector in Thailand. Department of Fisheries Thailand, Shrimp Culture Seminar, Bangkok, 8th August 2011

1. An introduction to the climate change and implications for
the shrimp culture sector in Thailand
Simon Funge-Smith
Secretary, Asia-Pacific Fishery Commission
FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Department of Fisheries Thailand, Shrimp Culture Seminar, Bangkok, 8th
August 2011

2. Climate change
Earth’s climate has varied widely over the last
few hundred million years
 there have been hot periods, and ice ages
 linked to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels.
The climate is currently changing
 surface air and sea temperatures have increased
 rate of warming has accelerated in the last few decades.
Human activity is contributing to this change
 mainly through increasing concentrations of
“greenhouse” gases (e.g. methane, CO2, N2O)
There is natural variability
 changes in energy from the sun,
 natural cycles such as El Niño (ENSO)
 Unexpected events e.g. volcanic eruptions

3. Climate change trends
Warming trend over the last 50 years
 nearly twice the rate of warming for the last 100 years
 next 100 years temperature change could range from
+0.3°C to as high as +6.4°C
Global average sea level rise
 average rise of 1.8 mm per year (1961 to 2003)
 next 100 years - sea level could change from 0.18 m to
as high as 0.59 m
Intensity of rainfall events increases
 changes in average rainfall
 increase in rainfall is projected for the Asian monsoon
 increase in rainfall variability, less reliable seasonal
rain?
Sea level pressure is increase over the
subtropics and mid-latitudes
 influences sea flooding
There is a tendency for drying of the mid-
continental areas during summer
 greater risk of droughts in those regions

4. Projecting the effects of climate change
Projecting these changes is challenging
Very complex
Numerous factors and variables
Can only indicate scenarios
Climate change will not have uniform
impacts across the globe
Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change due to
the low capacity of countries in the region to
respond and adapt
Most projections look at a timeframe of 50-
100 years
Gradual changes
But short term unpredictable events occur
© 2009 Google™

5. Projection
More negative than positive effects
Natural systems are vulnerable
Certain trends and impacts may be more
pronounced in Asia
temperature increases are likely to be above the
global norm in many parts of the region
a number of important river basins in Asia are
threatened by further water stress
people in the region are likely to be
disproportionately impacted by flooding
biodiversity loss will be greater in the tropics

6. Direct consequences on shrimp culture
Direct biophysical and ecological consequences of
changes
Direct impacts on aquaculture production
 Disease, damage, production viability, costs, efficiency
Direct impact on species compositions and
distribution
 broodstock, species ranges
Indirect consequences on shrimp culture
Interaction between other sectors
 water demand & food production
Strong competition for resources
 land, freshwater
Impacts of the mitigation actions of other sectors
Most already present
 Climate change will make them worse

7. Warming in the Asian region
Changes in coastal ecosystems are already
taking place
warming of surface air and water temperatures
extending tropical range northwards
migration of some species into previously cooler zones
altered local ecosystems with changes in competitors,
predators and invasive species
increased incidence of disease and parasites
Water quality changes
more frequent harmful algal blooms
changes in plankton composition
less dissolved oxygen

8. Implication for shrimp aquaculture
Raised metabolic rates increase feeding rates and
growth
 benefits if water quality, dissolved oxygen levels, and food
supply are adequate...
 ..otherwise possible reductions in feeding rates and
growth
 potential for enhanced primary productivity
 perhaps offset by eutrophication risks
 possible benefits for aquaculture, especially intensive and
semi-intensive pond systems
Reduced water quality leads or stress/disease
 especially dissolved oxygen
Aquaculture opportunities lost/gained by shift in
the potential range for a given species.
 species can longer be grown in some areas
 new areas become (warmer) extending range of tropical
species (more competition?)

9. Implications for shrimp aquaculture
Changes in infrastructure and operating costs
 Profits reduced by increase in stress & disease
 changes in the range and abundance of pathogens
higher operating costs
 invasive species, pests, nuisance species and/or
predators
Possibly higher capital costs
for aeration equipment
deeper ponds
more water exchange
worsened infestations of fouling organisms

10. Rainfall patterns in the Asian region
Decreasing mean annual rainfall
Indonesia, Philippines
Increasing mean annual rainfall
South-Eastern coast of China, Bangladesh and along
the western coasts of the Philippines
There is a trend toward an increased intensity of
rainfall
increase in frequency of occurrence of more intense
rainfall events in many parts of Asia
Intense rainfall events (monsoon related) causing
landslides and severe flooding
Overall decrease in the total amount of rainfall
fewer rainy days and reduced total annual amount of
precipitation

11. Changing freshwater flows
Demand for freshwater is likely to grow
Already intense demands for agriculture &
cities
More water shortages
May increase saline intrusion in deltas
Average river runoff increase in Thailand?
increases of between 10-40% in the wet tropics
flow will not be smooth, probably associated
with flooding
River basins may be subjected to earlier season
peak flows
© 2009 Google™

12. Implications for shrimp aquaculture
Lower water availability for aquaculture
increased competition with other water users
changes in water quality
salinity increases, temperature rises
impacts water quality causing more disease
increase stress, lower performance
 Aquaculture higher costs
maintaining pond water levels
increased stock loss
reduced production capacity
Change of culture species and culture
systems
 some potential opportunities
 More recirculation / less water exchange
© 2009 Google™

13. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme
events (ongoing)
Changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
 regular occurrence that already affects climate and ocean
globally
 altered rainfall patterns (delayed monsoon onset)
 drought, water shortages
 flash flooding in rivers
Increase in extreme rainfall and winds associated with
tropical cyclones
 cyclones move to different areas
 East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia
 especially Bay of Bengal, Mekong Delta, Vietnam, Philippines
Increase in storm surges and associated coastal flooding
 low-pressure weather/cyclones combine with high tides push
sea water onshore
 shrimp aquaculture communities, their property, and
infrastructure will be exposed

14. Implication for shrimp culture:
Large waves and storm surges;
Loss of aquaculture stock from flooding
Damage to or loss of aquaculture facilities
Insurance costs?
Inland flooding from intense rainfall
Introduction of disease or predators into
aquaculture facilities
Cold weather events
Sudden temperature shocks can stress shrimp
triggering disease outbreaks

15. Coastal zones and sea-level rise
Coastlines & deltas will be subjected to:
Increased erosion
Inundation (increasing wetland/flooded area)
Flooding
Loss of coastal wetlands or expansion of mangroves
into newly flooded coastal lands
Saline intrusion into rivers, bays and aquifers

16. Implications for shrimp aquaculture
Most immediate and significant effects in
delta areas, estuaries and associated wetlands
These are all key aquaculture environments
Changing coastal ecosystems such as mudflats
and mangrove forests.
 worsened exposure of ponds to waves and storm
surges
 risks that coastal/inland aquaculture will become
inundated
Loss of land (increased flooding/inundation)
 reduced area available for aquaculture
Saline intrusion.
 reduced freshwater availability for aquaculture
 opportunities to shift to brackish water species
 increased opportunities for mariculture

17. Does shrimp aquaculture contribute to climate change?
Need to look at energy “footprint”
 “lifecycle analysis”
 Indicates shrimp is worse than salmon.....
Global total of CO2 from global
aquaculture 385 million tonnes
 ~1% of global total
 ~6.3-7.5% of agriculture total
Shrimp aquaculture production uses
significant amounts of energy
 aeration, pumping, production intensive
feeds
 Doesn’t include processing/transport
Source: Hall, S.J., et al. 2011. Blue Frontiers: Managing the
Environmental Costs of Aquaculture. The WorldFish Center,
Penang, Malaysia.

18. Relative contribution of different countries
Globally, average shrimp and prawn
production contributes 17 tonnes
CO2/tonne of shrimp
Thailand ~10 tonnes CO2/tonne of shrimp
Could be improved:
 More recirculation/less pumping
 More efficient aeration
 air lifts instead of paddle wheels
 Use of pond linings
Source: Hall, S.J., et al. 2011. Blue Frontiers: Managing
the Environmental Costs of Aquaculture. The WorldFish
Center, Penang, Malaysia.
Country tonnes
CO2/tonne
shrimp
China ~ 30
Ecuador ~ 14
Indonesia ~ 9
Mexico ~ 8
Thailand ~ 10
VietNam ~ 5
Average ~ 17

19. Adaptation & mitigation
Adaptation through reduction of
vulnerability
Look for ‘‘no-regret’’ strategies
“win-win”
changes in management that deliver
benefits with or without climate change
Reduce vulnerability to extreme
events, unexpected changes
cyclone and storm surge preparation
resilience to flooding
expect the worse case scenario

20. Technical approaches for adaptation in the aquaculture sector
Make system more resilient to extreme weather
develop buffer areas to reduce impact of coastal flooding/storm surges
raise bunds
Warming
deepen ponds
more efficient aeration systems to cope with low dissolved oxygen
Recirculation to reduce water demand
Already being used
May increase energy efficiency (reduced pumping/water-lifting costs
Potential reduction in GHG on unit production

21. How to meet challenge of climate change
adaptation
Economic and market diversification
New species to markets
Modify operations to adapt to operational
cost changes
Branding of low carbon footprint products
Insurance for the fisheries and
aquaculture sector
Cope with unexpected weather events

22. Supportive Government policy can assist
adaptation
Government level
 clearly incorporate aquaculture production sector into
Government climate change strategies
 Develop/promote adaptation/mitigation actions
 Promote/research appropriate technologies that will
support emission reduction
Important to understand vulnerability
 systems, places, people
 different effects in different places
 where to prioritize effort & money
Difficult for small farmers to recover from
extreme events
 Low incomes and limited savings
 Cannot access credit, loans and insurance &
national reserves and assistance limited
 Lack of effective public services to address extreme
events

23. Opportunities for mitigation of aquaculture
contributions to CO2 production
Direct reduction of greenhouse gas emissions
 Note that GHG emission may be lower than for other forms
of food production (e.g. intensive pork/chicken)
Increase energy efficiency in aquaculture production
 aeration
 pumping
 use of liners
 better feed conversion
Innovations in shrimp processing/transport
 improvements related to the transportation of fish to
markets
 improved building design and handling practices to reduce
energy requirements
 increase energy efficiency through better insulation in ice
plants, freezing plants, cold stores and chill stores.
Opportunity to brand shrimp
 branding and certification initiatives to promote energy
efficient products

24. Look for positive opportunities in climate
adaptation activities of other sectors
 Look for positive opportunities in extra-sectoral
responses.
 mitigation actions may provide opportunities for the
sector
 may be win-win
 Protection of ecosystems for coastal protection or
emissions reductions
 may reduce risk of storm surges/flooding
 Initiatives on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and Forest Degradation (REDD)
 mangrove restoration (good for protection of coast,
also enhances fisheries so win-win)
 revenues from eco-tourism

25. Mitigation and adaptation in other sectors
may impact shrimp aquaculture
Adaptive strategies developed for other sectors may have
implications on the fisheries and aquaculture sectors.
 e.g. flood water diversion to save cities/agricultural land
 coastal management, storm protection structures – may increase
erosion
 interaction between other sectors and the capture fisheries and
aquaculture sectors need to be considered in policy planning
Competition for (fresh)water between the aquaculture and
agriculture sectors already lead to conflicts between user
groups.
 Less of a problem for coastal aquaculture
 diversion of fresh water for water-thirsty industries
 May affect water quality/salinity in estuaries
 May increase saline intrusion – opportunity?

26. Key messages
Climate stress already exists
Cyclone patterns, warming, cold weather, rainfall
patterns, flooding, freshwater flow, species
changes
Climate variability has always been here
El nino, unpredictable storms/weather
Climate change will cause disruptions to
aquatic and coastal systems
limited ability to make specific predictions on
shrimp aquaculture remains limited
Must identify the most likely risks
 identify most vulnerable systems/areas
develop specific (local) adaptive strategies

27. Key messages
Positive opportunities
Extended range of species (but possibly more
competition from neighbouring producers?)
Increased saline/brackishwater culture areas
Faster growth rates
Improved marketing of products that have made
a positive impact to reduce GHG emission
(energy use)
Negative impacts expected on:
 Production costs
 Productivity and viability of aquaculture operations
 Extreme weather
 Flooding & storm surges
 Temperature rise
 Related sectors: agriculture, land and water
management, coastal development

28. Key messages
In the short term, non-climate-related drivers
have larger impacts
 Don’t blame losses from bad management on
climate change!
 Climate change makes human driven problems worse
Biggest threat is current poor practices in shrimp
culture management and ecosystem
management
 Inefficient culture systems
 Spread of disease through movements of
unscreened stocks
 Poor zonation
 Poor control over effluents and coastal
development
 Coastal habitat destruction
Poor management reduces resilience to climate
change related impacts
 Good management will deliver benefits with or without
climate change

29. Key messages
Action at sector level could be promoted by
supportive government policies
More local level action by farmers
Assess most likely threats and possible adaptive
changes
Look for cost effective win-win
changes in the farming systems
technological adaption/innovation
A sustainable shrimp sector recognizes
vulnerabilities and adapts
A responsible shrimp sector takes steps to mitigate
its impacts
opportunity for shrimp aquaculture to improve its
image as a low GHG emitting food production sector

30. Footnotes:
Some of the climate change terminology
 Vulnerability
 ‘the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to
cope with the negative effects of climate change’ (IPCC,2007)
 Resilience
 “the ability to recover from, or adjust easily to change”
 Adaptation
 “a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural
and human systems to climate change effects
 Adaptive capacity
 “Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes”
 Mitigation
 “Actions taken to reduce effect of climate change drivers (typically
greenhouse gas reduction) “
 “No-regrets” strategy
 “Actions contributing to CC adaptation or mitigation that make sense,
without even taking account of CC”
 “steps to reduce GHGs that would pay for themselves even without a climate
change”
 ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)
 “a climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean on average
every five years, but over a period which varies from three to seven years. This
affects rainfall, currents, temperatures, fisheries”
 REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation)
 “uses market/financial incentives to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases
from deforestation and forest degradation. Also supposed to deliver "co-
benefits" such as biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation”