Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin


Published on

Published in: Education, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin

  1. 1. Climate Change Scenarios for theCongo BasinFulco Ludwig, Andreas Haensler and Paul Scholte
  2. 2. Modelling chain of the project
  3. 3. Observed temperatures and precipitation
  4. 4. Projected changes in annual temperaturesHighemissionscenarioLowemissionscenario
  5. 5. projected changes for frequency of hotdays and nights
  6. 6. Projectedchanges inseasonalprecipitation
  7. 7. Projected changes in intensity of heavy rainfall eventsHighemissionscenarioLowemissionscenario
  8. 8. Average changes (%) in precipitation, evapo-transpiration and runoff across the Congo River Basin
  9. 9. Impact ofclimatechange onmean, highand low riverflows
  10. 10. Climate change impacts on hydrologicalcycle Changes in run-off mainly depend on changes in rainfall●As rainfall changes are uncertain run-off changesare also uncertain Run-off and discharge will increase – especially duringthe wet season●River discharge increases – up to 60% - could causeincreased flooding Difference between wet and dry season will becomelarger Especially in the northern and southern parts of theregion lower low flows and more drought are projectedfor the future
  11. 11. Climate change impacts on river flow intofive different hydropower dams
  12. 12. Climate change impacts on hydropowerproductionMore average run-off increases the potential forenergy production from hydropower●But due to the uncertainties in future run-off this isnot certainThe run-off however will become more variablethis will make dam management morecomplicated and energy availability less reliableIncreased peak flow can also affect hydropowerfacilities●For example dam levels have to lowered to cover forpeak flow●Extreme flows could damage dams and facilities
  13. 13. Climate change impacts on ecosystemcarbon storage
  14. 14. Climate change impacts on agriculture Higher CO2 concentrations potentially increases production andreduce agricultural water use Higher temperatures reduces plant growth, cause heat stressand increase evaporation Water stress will increase in the drier parts of the regions High temperatures and high humidity make crops sensitive todiseases In the northern and southern plant production will be affectedby more frequent droughts and dry spells Locally, agriculture will be affected by high intensive rainfallevents and floods
  15. 15. Agriculture - conclusion In the region, water will not become a limiting factor foragricultural production – with the acceptance of northernedge of the region (mainly Chad) In terms of climate change, temperature increases willbe of more importance than changes inevapotranspiration and rainfall
  16. 16. Need for adaptationimprove preparedness for extreme weather eventssuch as droughts and floods in the agricultural and energy sector there is a need forrisk spreading by diversification●grow different crops and also different varieties to reduceimpact of climate variability●Countries should be careful not to become fully dependent onhydropower because this makes them too vulnerable todroughts To prevent forest degeneration and erosion there should bemore attention on reforestation and agroforestry Programs on food and water security should develop strategiesto manage climate variability so they are prepared for bothdry and wet periods