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Climate Change: Causes and Implications For Pakistan

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  • The Green House Effect Some gases like CO 2 , Methane, N 2 O, Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) etc. naturally exist in the atmosphere, the so called Green House Gases (GHGs) that form a blanket surrounding the earth and keeps the earth warmer. This is called Green House Effect . The Enhanced Green House Effect Human activities (fossil fuel burning, depletion of sinks like forests etc.) has been increasing the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere and is leading to rise in temperatures . This is called Enhanced Green House Effect. Global Warming/Climate Change The phenomena of a rise in global temperatures of earth and other associated climatic changes as caused by the Enhanced Green House Effect is called “Global Warming” and in broader term “Climate Change”.
  • Climate change change1

    1. 2. Climate Change: Causes and Implications for Pakistan
    2. 4. Climate Change: Some Definitions <ul><li>Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Climate: Average weather. Statistical </li></ul><ul><li>description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically </li></ul><ul><li>2-3 decades. </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable to human activity. </li></ul>
    3. 5. Climate Change <ul><li>UNFCCC …..” a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over a comparable period of time” </li></ul>
    4. 6. <ul><li>CLIMATE CHANGE </li></ul><ul><li>Global Warming </li></ul><ul><li>Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution </li></ul><ul><li>Melting of Glaciers & Snow </li></ul><ul><li>Sea level Rise </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather Events </li></ul><ul><li>IMPACTS </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainty in Water Availability </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease in Crop </li></ul><ul><li>Yields </li></ul><ul><li>Newer perspective for sources of energy </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of Biodiversity </li></ul><ul><li>Increased </li></ul><ul><li>Health Risks </li></ul>Natural Climate Variability Climate Change Natural + Anthropogenic Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution Spiraling Population High pace of Industrialization Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in Industry & Transport Deforestation for Agriculture and Urbanization
    5. 7. Green House Gases (GHGs) SIX types of greenhouse gases with different Global Warming Potential (GWP). Usually expressed in CO2-equivalent : Carbon dioxide GWP: 1 Hydrofluorocarbons GWP: 11,700 Methane GWP: 21 Sulphur hexafluoride GWP: 23,900 Nitrous oxide GWP: 310 Perfluorocarbons GWP: 9,200
    6. 8. Sector wise Energy Consumption of Pakistan Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008
    7. 9. Change in CO 2 Emissions in Pakistan (1971-2006)
    8. 10. Climate Change/Global Warming Scientific Evidence <ul><li>According to the 3 rd Assessment report of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Average global temperature has increased by 0.6 0 C during the 20 th Century. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Future increases in global temperature are expected in the range of 1.4 – 5.8 0 C by the end of this century. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In South Asia, average annual temperatures could rise between 3.5 to 5.5 0 C by 2100. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Recent findings in the 4 th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) indicate that global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5 0 C are almost inevitable. </li></ul>
    9. 11. Glaciers and Pakistan <ul><li>Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). </li></ul><ul><li>Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB. </li></ul><ul><li>International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”. </li></ul><ul><li>Hewitt (2005): reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers. </li></ul>
    10. 12. Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers (As reported in recent studies) <ul><li>World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years. </li></ul><ul><li>IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. </li></ul><ul><li>These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain. </li></ul>
    11. 13. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):  Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50% Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
    12. 14. Vulnerability of Water Resources <ul><li>Increased variability of Monsoon </li></ul><ul><li>More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline </li></ul><ul><li>Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture and water supply for industrial and domestic sectors. </li></ul><ul><li>Increased risks of floods and droughts </li></ul>
    13. 15. Vulnerability <ul><li>Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability is the function of: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Character, magnitude, and rate of climate change to which it is exposed </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sensitivity and adaptive capacity of system itself </li></ul></ul><ul><li>The adaptive capacity and vulnerability may vary from region to region and even within the regions </li></ul>
    14. 16. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Pakistan <ul><li>Agriculture Systems in Pakistan </li></ul><ul><li>Total Geographic area: 79.61 mha </li></ul><ul><li>Cultivated area : 223 mha (28%) </li></ul><ul><li>Irrigated area : 19.12 mha (84% of cultivated) </li></ul><ul><li>Rainfed (Barani) cultivated area: 3.67 mha (16% of cultivated) </li></ul><ul><li>Irrigated Agriculture: Consumes >80% of fresh water resources and contributes >90% to national production </li></ul>
    15. 17. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change variability Geographic Diversity and Hazards in Pakistan <ul><li>The country has high climatic and geographic diversity </li></ul><ul><li>A large part of our economy is in vulnerable sector (i.e., agriculture) </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of the rural population is poor ~ increases vulnerabilities </li></ul>Mountains <ul><li>Earthquake </li></ul><ul><li>Landslide </li></ul><ul><li>Flashfloods </li></ul><ul><li>Avalanches </li></ul><ul><li>GLOFs </li></ul><ul><li>Wild fires </li></ul><ul><li>Epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>Windstorms </li></ul>Plains/ deserts <ul><li>Floods </li></ul><ul><li>Drought </li></ul><ul><li>Earthquake </li></ul><ul><li>Epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>Wind storms </li></ul>Coastal Belt <ul><li>Cyclones </li></ul><ul><li>Floods </li></ul><ul><li>Drought </li></ul><ul><li>Epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>Storms </li></ul>
    16. 18. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change <ul><li>Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls. </li></ul><ul><li>Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, etc </li></ul>
    17. 19. Impacts on Crops <ul><li>Shortening of growing season length </li></ul><ul><li>Loss in yield </li></ul><ul><li>Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages </li></ul><ul><li>Increased pest/disease incidence </li></ul><ul><li>Increased crop water requirements </li></ul>
    18. 20. Enhanced risk of pests and diseases <ul><li>Some insect pests and diseases proliferate under high rainfall conditions (e.g Bollworm of Cotton, and Wheat Rust and Root Rot diseases), while others thrive under warm moist (e.g thrips) and dry conditions (e.g. locust) </li></ul>
    19. 21. Livestock <ul><li>Plays a significant role in national economy – Potential Foreign Exchange earner </li></ul><ul><li>Contributes to agricultural GDP equal to crop sub-sector </li></ul><ul><li>Source of fuel and fertilizer in the rural areas </li></ul><ul><li>Not much research conducted in Pakistan on assessment of impacts, and appropriate adaptive measures on animals </li></ul>Likely Impacts on Livestock <ul><li>Physiological stress on animal due to high temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Productivity losses (milk and meat) due to high temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Stress on conception and reproduction due to high temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-related disease epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced productivity of fodder crops </li></ul><ul><li>Decreased quality and palatability of forages </li></ul><ul><li>Increased water requirements of animals and fodder crops </li></ul>
    20. 22. Land Degradation <ul><li>Water-logging in coastal areas: Rising of water table depth to near the soil surface resulting in saturation of soil profile hindering respiration of roots </li></ul><ul><li>Salinity: Deposition of excessive soluble salts at the land surface or in the soil profile due to capillary action inhibiting germination and growth </li></ul><ul><li>Erosion: Detachment of top soil layer due to the action of water or wind </li></ul>Impacts on Land <ul><li>Land degradation enhanced due to </li></ul><ul><li>Wind and water erosion, as a result of low and high rainfall </li></ul><ul><li>Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land surface. </li></ul>
    21. 23. Land Degradation in Pakistan <ul><li>Water Erosion : 17% </li></ul><ul><li>Wind Erosion : 8% </li></ul><ul><li>Salinity and Sodicity : 9% </li></ul><ul><li>Waterlogging : 5% </li></ul><ul><li>Low organic matter (<1%) : 96% </li></ul>
    22. 24. Impacts on Forestry <ul><li>Loss of Biodiversity </li></ul><ul><li>More frequent forest fires resulting in deforestation, soil erosion and landslides </li></ul><ul><li>Shifting of forest areas northwards (to cooler places) </li></ul>
    23. 25. Impact of Climate Extreme Events <ul><li>Climate Extreme Events </li></ul><ul><li>Flash floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat waves </li></ul><ul><li>Cause damage to life and property </li></ul><ul><li>Destroy standing crops </li></ul><ul><li>Destroy stored food grain </li></ul><ul><li>Spoil quality of food grains </li></ul>
    24. 26. Fisheries <ul><li>At higher elevations, fisheries are likely to be adversely affected by lower availability of oxygen due to a rise in surface air temperatures. </li></ul><ul><li>In the plains, the timing and amount of precipitation could affect the migration of fish species from the river to the floodplains for spawning, dispersal, and growth (FAO, 2003) </li></ul><ul><li>Future changes in ocean currents, sea level, sea water temperature, salinity, wind speed and direction, and predator response to climate change have the potential to substantially alter fish breeding habitats and food supply for fish and ultimately the abundance of fish populations in Asian waters </li></ul>
    25. 27. Coastal Zones <ul><li>Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove forests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish and infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood of dependant communities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become saline </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature increases could also adversely affect local flora and fauna of coastal areas, as well as the biological equilibrium of marine life. </li></ul><ul><li>Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the global ocean system. </li></ul>
    26. 28. Human Health <ul><li>Build-up of high concentrations of air pollutants such as CO2, NO2, ozone, and air-borne particulates in large urban areas will lead to adverse health impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Increased incidence of respiratory and cardio-vascular diseases </li></ul><ul><li>Increased incidence of Vector borne disease epidemics of malaria, dengue fever, etc </li></ul>
    27. 29. Human Dimensions <ul><li>The elderly, women and children are most vulnerable to severity of climate </li></ul><ul><li>Heat strokes to increase </li></ul><ul><li>Heat exhaustion incidences to increase </li></ul><ul><li>Weakened immune system </li></ul><ul><li>Climate refugees to increase </li></ul>
    28. 30. Impacts on Energy <ul><li>Greater demand of energy </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced hydropower generation because of low water supply </li></ul><ul><li>Windmills – vulnerable in coastal areas to cyclonic activity </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced utilization of solar energy – due to increased cloudiness as a result of high evapotranspiration </li></ul>
    29. 31. Coping with the Climate Change <ul><li>Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of </li></ul><ul><li>vulnerable areas and communities </li></ul><ul><li>Reliance on climate-sensitive sectors </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Over-stressed natural resources </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Identify and prioritize adaptation options in key sectors (e.g. drought resistant crops, early warning systems) </li></ul><ul><li>Complement national development policies and mitigation measures; </li></ul>
    30. 32. Actions on climate change <ul><li>Mitigation : </li></ul><ul><li>Promoting low-carbon energy sources and technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Promoting energy conservation and efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing emissions from deforestation </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation : </li></ul><ul><li>Integrating climate risks into policies </li></ul><ul><li>and planning at different levels </li></ul><ul><li>Addressing climate impacts </li></ul><ul><li>in various sectors </li></ul><ul><li>Building the capacity of communities to </li></ul><ul><li>cope with climate change related problems </li></ul>