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Climate change


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Prepared in 2011 for a climate change presentation as a brief summary of a book.

Published in: Environment
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Climate change

  1. 1. Shibu  lijack   Climate  ChangeClimate  Change Gas  emissions The  Science,  Impact  and  Solutions 에르뎀200900896
  2. 2. Source § Climate  Change:  The   Science,  Impacts   and  Solutions Earth  scan   Publications  Ltd.  |   2009  |  ISBN:   1844076482,   1844077861  |  370   pages  |
  3. 3. § Facts § Greenhouse  Effect § Climate  Change § Examples  of  Climate  Change § Arctic  Climate  Impact § Uncertainty § Sea  Level  Rise,  Global  Warming § Impacts  on  Sectors § Emissions § Growth  in  Technology,  Taxes § Improving  Energy  Efficiency § What  do  we  have  to  do?
  4. 4. Facts Today,  global  climate  change  is  a  fact.  The  climate  has   changed  visibly,  tangibly,  measurably. An  additional  increase  in  average  temperatures  is  not   only  possible,  but  very  probable, While  human  intervention  in  the  natural  climate  system   plays  an  important,  if  not  decisive  role.
  5. 5. Facts The World Meteorological Organization declared that 2005 and 1998 were the two warmest years on record. Since the twentieth century global average surface temperature has risen by 0.18 to 0.74C And temperature has risen 0.13 to 0.3 C per decade.
  6. 6. Greenhouse  Effect Carbon   DioxideOxides  of  Nitrogen Methane Waste  Gases   due  to  industry Land   Clearing,   cropping,   irrigation Farm   Animals
  7. 7. Climate  Change Orbit  Variations On  time  scales  of   thousand  years Volcanic   Eruptions Matter  of  Days   or  weeks   Gas  Emissions On  a  time  scale  of   decades  to  a   century 1.4°C  -­ 5.8°C     Warmer  in   2100  than   1990 If  we  stop   emitting   gases   tomorrow  the   increase  of  CO2   will  persist  for   centuries 9cm  – 88cm  Sea  level  rise  in  2100
  8. 8. Examples  of  Climate  Change Examples  of Climate   Change Slowdown  of  the   Atlantic  Meridional Circulation Disappearance  of   mountain  glaciers Melting  of   Greenland  or   West  Antarctic  ice   sheetsDisappearance   of  Arctic  sea  ice Desertification  of   Sahel  or  the   Amazon Irreversible  trends   of El  Nino,  Southern,   North  Atlantic,   Arctic,  Antarctic
  9. 9. Arctic  Climate  Impact 1.  The  Arctic  climate  is  now  warming  rapidly  and  much  larger  changes  are   expected. 2.  Arctic  warming  and  its  consequences  have  worldwide  implications. 3.  Arctic  vegetation  zones  are  projected  to  shift,  bringing  wide-­ranging   impacts. 4.  Animal  species’ diversity,  ranges  and  distribution  will  change. 5.  Many  coastal  communities  and  facilities  face  increasing  exposure  to   storms.
  10. 10. Arctic  Climate  Impact 6.  Reduced  sea  ice  is  very  likely  to  increase  marine  transport  and  access  to   resources. 7.  Thawing  ground  will  disrupt  transportation,  buildings,  and  other   infrastructure. 8.  Indigenous  communities  are  facing  major  economic  and  cultural  impacts. 9.  Elevated  ultraviolet  radiation  levels  [a  combined  effect  of  global  warming   and  stratospheric  ozone  depletion]will  affect  people,  plants,  and  animals. 10.  Multiple  influences  interact  to  cause  impacts  to  people  and  ecosystem
  11. 11. Uncertainty Estimated   Variable Process   Applied Range  of   Uncertainty GH  Gas   Concentrations GH  Gas   Emissions Global  Climate   Change Regional   Climate  Change Sectoral Impact Carbon  Cycle   Model Climate  Model Downscaling   Method Sectoral Impact  models
  12. 12. Sea  Level  Rise,  Global  Warming Case Warming  to  2100  (°C)   Sea  Level  Rise to  2100   (cm) IPCC  2001 full  range 1.4  to  5.8 9  to  88 IPCC  2007  low  case 1.1  to  2.9 18  to 38 IPCC A1F1  high  case 2.4 to  6.4 26  to  59 Rahmstorf 2007 1.4 to  5.8 50 to  140 Jim  Hansen NOAA Up  to  5m
  13. 13. Changes  in  Extreme  Events Changes  in  Phenomenon Confidence  in   Observed  Changes (post-­ 1960 Confidence in   Projected   Changes  (during   21st century) Higher  maximum temperatures  and  more  hot  days   over  nearly  all  land  areas Very  likely Virtually  certain Higher  minimum  temperatures,  fewer cold  days  and   frost  days  over  nearly  all  land  areas Very likely Virtually  certain Reduced  diurnal  temperature range  over  most  land   areas Very  likely Virtually  certain Intense  precipitation  events  (frequency  or  proportion   of  total  rainfall) Likely Very likely Increased risk  of  drought  in  mid  latitude  continental   areas Likely Likely Increase in  tropical  cyclone  peak  wind  intensities  and   rainfall  with  lower  central  pressures Likely  in  some   regions Likely Extreme extra  tropical  storms  increased  frequency/   intensity  and  pole  wards  shifts Likely Likely Coastal storm  surges  and  flooding  more  severe(due   to  both  higher  mean  sea  level  and  more  intense   storms) Very  likely  due  to  sea level  rise  last  century Virtually certain
  14. 14. Impacts  and  Adaptations  by  Sector Sector Potential  impact Potential adaptation Comments   Hydrology  and  water   resources Increased  floods  and   droughts,  loss  of   snowpack  and  glaciers;;   regional  and  seasonal   water  deficits,  saline   intrusion  in  some  island   and  coastal  aquifers Flood plain  zoning,  review   levees  and  dam  safety,   management  pricing,   conservation,  recycling,   desalinization  plants Major dams,  water   diversions,  irrigation   projects  possible  but   expensive  and   controversial  with   further  climate   changes  creating   design  problems Land  based   ecosystems Biodiversity  loss  in bounded  areas  including   mountains,  increased  fire   risk,  weed  invasion,   salinization Landscape  management, Eco  corridors,  fire  protection,   weed  control,  management Increased   management  of   natural  ecosystems with  increasing   species  and  system   losses Aquatic ecosystems Salinization  of  coastal   aquifers and  wetlands,   low  river  flows   eutrophication Barriers  to  saltwater intrusion,   increase  environmental  flows,   reduce  nutrients Impacts  will   compound problems   from  increased   population  and   water  demand
  15. 15. Impacts  and  Adaptations  by  Sector Sect or Potential  impact Potential adaptation Comments   Coastal Ecosystems Coral  bleaching, more   toxic  algal  blooms,   acidification Reduce other  stresses,  seed   coral,  reduce  nutrient  inflows Population  growth   and  pollution  are   other  vital  factors Agriculture,grazing  and   forestry Increased drought  and   fire  risk,  effects  on   global  markets,  spread   of  pests  and  diseases,   increased  soil  erosion,   initial  benefit  from   increased  CO2  offset  by   climate  change Management  and policy   changes,  fire  prevention,   seasonal  forecasts,  market   planning,  niche  crops,  carbon   trading,  exclusion  spraying,   land  management,  plant   breeding,  changed  farm   practices,  change  crop  or   industry Increased   management  of   natural  ecosystems with  increasing   species  and  system   losses Aquatic ecosystems Salinization  of  coastal   aquifers and  wetlands,   low  river  flows   eutrophication Barriers  to  saltwater intrusion,   increase  environmental  flows,   reduce  nutrients Impacts  will   compound problems   from  increased   population  and   water  demand
  16. 16. Impacts  and  Adaptations  by  Sector Secto r Potential  impact Potential adaptation Comments   Horticult ure   Reduced winter  chill  for   fruiting,  pests  and  diseased,   drought Change  management,   relocate,  chemical sprays Opportunities  for  tropical   fruits  at  higher latitudes Fishe ries Changes  recruitment, nutrient  supplies research, monitoring,   management Not  well  understood Electricity Industry Need  increased  peak   capacity  for  air  conditioning, drought  threatens  cooling   water Building  design,  shade,  solar   powered  air  conditioning,   renewable  power  with  storage Efficiency also  affected,   trend  to  renewables  creates   opportunities  changing  price   structure Tourism Increased  heat  index,  loss   of  some  attractions.  Snow   resorts,  coral  reefs,  coastal   wetlands Cool  tropical  resorts,  expand   cooler resorts,  alternative   industries  or  relocate  people Losses  and  gains Insurance Increased  exposure  to   natural hazards’ Revised buildings  codes,  rate   incentives  ,zoning,  reduced   cover This  is  happening now,  may   deter  unwise  developments   Human   health Expansion  of  range  of   vector  borne  diseases, water  supply  issues  injuries   from  extreme  events Quarantine,  eradication, control,  window  screens,   medication,  repellents,   improve  medical  services,   evacuation,  refuges Wealthy  countries can  cope,   others  may  suffer
  17. 17. Emissions
  18. 18. Growth  in  Technology,  Taxes 2003 2007 2017   estimate Solar   photovoltaic 620MW 2821MW 23,000 Wind  power 8000MW 20,060  MW 76,000 biofuels 7  billion   gallons 15.6  billion   gallons 46  billion gallons
  19. 19. Improving  Energy  Efficiency § Increasing  fuel  economy  in  cars,  includi ng  hybrid,  fully  electric  and  compressed   air  cars, Ø Reducing  reliance  on  cars,  with  better  p ublic  transport,  bike  paths  and  urban  de sign, Ø Building  or  retrofitting  more  efficient  buil dings  with  better  use  of  insulation,  shad e,  cogeneration  plants,  and  automatic  c ontrols, Ø Increasing  power  plant  efficiency,
  20. 20. Improving  Energy  Efficiency § Decreasing  carbon  emissions  from  electricity   and  fuels  by  using  alternatives  such  as: Ø Substitution  of  natural  gas  for  coal  and  oil, Ø Wind  generated  electricity, Ø Solar  photovoltaic,  solar  thermal  power, Ø Geothermal  power, Ø Wave  and  tidal  power, Ø Energy  storage  from  renewables  by  various   means  including  pumped  hydro,  hydrogen   generation,  efficient  batteries,  electrolyte   generation,  fuel  cells  and  compressed  air.
  21. 21. Improving  Energy  Efficiency Ø Second  generation  biofuels  avoiding  land  cle aring  and  competition  with  food  production, Ø Carbon  capture  and  sequestration  from  pow er  plants, Ø Carbon  capture  and  sequestration  from  synt hetic  fuel  plants, Ø Nuclear  power  with  all  safeguards, § Increasing  the  effectiveness  of  natural  sinks   by: Ø Improving  forest  management,  including  plan tations  and  on-­farm  forestry, Ø Improving  management  of  agricultural  soils,
  22. 22. What  do  we  have  to  do? § Rapid  deployment  of  wind  turbines,  and  solar   photovoltaic  especially  in  Europe  and  parts  of  the  United   States  and  Asia § Large  scale  solar  thermal  power  installations  with   energy  storage § Rapid  elimination  of  industrial  by  product  gases § Efficient  hybrid  gasoline/electric,  low-­pollution  diesel  and   compressed  air  automobiles § Advances  in  fuel  cell  technology § Limited  demonstration  of  underground  storage  or   sequestration  of  carbon  dioxide § Efficient  public  transport,  bicycle  and  pedestrian  friendly   cities.
  23. 23. What  do  we  have  to  do? § Biofuels  can  be  substituted  for  fossil  fuels  to  generate   heat  and  electricity § Gaseous  or  liquid  biofuels  such  as  ethanol  can   substitute  for  oil  in  transportation § Biomass,  in  the  form  of  timber  or  compressed  fibrous   sheeting  can  replace  greenhouse  intensive  construction   materials  such  as  concrete,  steel  or  aluminum. § Carbon  can  be  sequestered  in  the  ground  by  suitable   cultivation  techniques  or  by  burying  charcoal  generated   in  pyrolysis § Growing  Forests § Subsidies  for  not  users  taxes  and  tariffs  for  users
  24. 24. Q&A
  25. 25. Thank  You