1. Moneyball
Evidence-Based Entrepreneurship
&
Investment Readiness Levels
Steve Blank www.steveblank.com
@sgblank
Jim Hornthal
@hornthal

2. Lean Startup

3. Business Model
Canvas
Lean Startup

4. Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup

5. Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

6. Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

7. Hypotheses
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

8. Hypotheses
Experiments
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

9. Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

10. Mentors
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

11. LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

12. Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data
LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

13. Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data
+
Experiment
Scorecard
LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

14. Weekly Data
Progress
Data
Data
+
Experiment
Scorecard
=
Data, Experiments,
Trajectory, IRL
LaunchPad Central Software
Hypotheses
Experiments
Data
Evidence-based Methodology (NSF I-Corps/Lean LaunchPad)
Business Model
Canvas
+
Customer
Development
Lean Startup
+
Agile Engineering

15. Data on Hypotheses, Pivots,
MVPs, Metrics
Evidence and Trajectory

17. Cohort
Leaderboard

18. Customer
Interviews

19. Hypotheses
to Test

20. Invalidated
Hypotheses

22. Weekly Canvas
Updates

24. Track All
Hypotheses
Testing

26. Scorecard:
9 way Kanban Board
with data

27. NASA

28. NASA/DOD
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)
•
•
•
•
Formal Way to assess project maturity
Quantify Relative Risks
Data Driven
Adopted by NASA, DOD, FAA, ESA…

29. InvestmentReadiness Level
We can do the same
for new ventures

30. InvestmentReadiness Level
We can do the same
for new ventures
Emphasis is on data

31. Technology
Readiness Level
Investment
Readiness Level
Metrics that Matter
Validate
Left side of Canvas
Validate
Right side of Canvas
Product/Market Fit
Problem/Solution
Hypotheses

33. Remote monitoring device to prevent
severe flares in pediatric asthmatics
Total interviews: 117
Lessons Learned
December 10, 2013
Basil Ayish
Noel Jee
Clare Pak
CharviShetty
Jingwei Zhang

36. DEV. 2:
Michael Harrison
Michael Danty
Dillon Kwiat
Elisabeth Leeflang
Matt Clark
December 10, 2013
FINAL PRESENTATION
Vision: A new way to create a magnetic
compression anastomosis with improved
outcomes.
Interviews completed: 90

37. FINAL CANVAS
MAGNAMOSIS, Inc.
37

38. INVESTMENT READINESS LEVEL
IRL 6
Plausible exit
Cash to 1st inflection point
Unit economics validated
Reimbursement / other revenue
Regulatory path certainty & difficulty
IP freedom to operate & ability to block
Attractive solution & ID of MVP
Compelling clinical need + large market
Effective team?
MAGNAMOSIS, Inc.
38

39. Total
Interviews: 88
Vantage Realized is building a wheelchair attachment that increases mobility and
reduces joint damage for manual wheelchair users.

40. Final Canvas
Strong
emphasis on
protective IP
End users don’t rely
on magazines for new
product information.
The wheelchair
manufacturers are
the best way to sell
through DME or
online retailers.
Manufacturing
cost ~$6
Most likely asset sale vs.
licensing

41. Investment Readiness Level

42. Vitruvian
Preventing Hernias Before They Happen
December 10, 2013
Mentor: Julie Cherrington
Team:
Cindy Chang, PhD
Hobart W. Harris, MD, MPH
David M. Young, MD
Customer Interviews : 74

43. Business Model Canvas
???

44. Therapeutic Investment Readiness Level
Plausible exit
Cash to exit
Unit economics Validated
Reimbursement
Regulatory
Intellectual Property
Attractive solution & ID of MVP
Compelling clinical need + large mkt
Effective team?

45. Pharma interactions: 25
Chagas KOL interactions: 25
Veterinary interactions: 20
Diagnostic interactions: 5
TOTAL interactions: 75
December 10, 2013

46. Business Model Canvas
WEEK 10

47. INVESTOR READINESS
“Proof of Relevance” Path to Revenue Fully Articulated
High Fidelity MVP
Business Case Defined
“Left Side of the Canvas”
Build KOL network
Deeper IP review and strategy
Due diligence on partners
Deeper cost analysis to each data point
Team talent gaps identified
“Right Side of the Canvas”
Product Market Fit
Problem/Solution Validation
Low Fidelity MVP
First Pass Canvas
IRL6

48. Probiotics for Agriculture
December 10th, 2013
Total interviews: 75

49. Week 10

50. Senior customer endorsement
Operational plan validated
Talent recruited
IP strategy and KOL network
“Proof of Relevance” defined
Timeline and cost to data points
Strategic fit in portfolio validated
Technology confirmed
First pass canvas

51. “God is not on the side of the big arsenals,
but on the side of those who shoot best.”
Voltaire