Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent last week while the Dollar Index increased by 1.17 percent. Fiscal deficit touched Rs.7.7 lakh crore in April-Jan touching 121.5 percent of the budgeted target for the current fiscal year. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI from India for Jan’19 came in at 54.3 against market expectations of 52.5. Jerome Powell in his latest testimony said US Central Bank will pay attention to financial market volatility if it threatens economic stability. Non-manufacturing PMI from US came in at 59.7 for Feb’19 against market expectations of 57.4. Services PMI from US came in line with market expectations at 56 for Feb’19. Meanwhile, The U.S. economic expansion, the second-longest in history and approaching its tenth year, is continuing despite the recent government shutdown, a new Federal Reserve report showed Wednesday.

1.
Key Highlight
 ECB to keep rates constant till end 2019
 US economic expansion approaching a decade
 Brexit uncertainty dominated Pound
Weekly Performance and Outlook
USDINR
Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent last week
while the Dollar Index increased by 1.17 percent. Fiscal
deficit touched Rs.7.7 lakh crore in April‐Jan touching
121.5 percent of the budgeted target for the current
fiscal year. Meanwhile, manufacturing PMI from India
for Jan’19 came in at 54.3 against market expectations
of 52.5. Jerome Powell in his latest testimony said US
Central Bank will pay attention to financial market
volatility if it threatens economic stability. Non‐
manufacturing PMI from US came in at 59.7 for Feb’19
against market expectations of 57.4. Services PMI from
US came in line with market expectations at 56 for
Feb’19. Meanwhile, The U.S. economic expansion, the
second‐longest in history and approaching its tenth
year, is continuing despite the recent government
shutdown, a new Federal Reserve report showed
Wednesday.
In this week, USDINR (CMP: 69.95) is expected to
trade between 69.80 to 70.50
EURINR

EURUSD depreciated by 1.1 percent last week while
EURINR appreciated by 1.46 percent the same time
frame. The central bank changed its forward guidance
on rate hikes, stating that would remain at their
present levels 'at least through the end of 2019, and in
any case for as long as necessary. The ECB downgraded
this year growth forecast to 1.1% from the previous
1.7%, while inflation for this year is now seen at 1.2%
vs. 1.6% in December. In the coming week, the
movement in EURINR will be driven by German CPI and
industrial production data.
In this week, EURINR (CMP: 78.52) is expected to
trade between 78.20 to 79.50
GBPINR
GBP fell against USD by 1.04 percent last week while
GBPINR appreciated by 1.37 percent. GBP fell for two
major reasons mainly Finance Minister Hammond, who
said that he wasn't expecting a breakthrough in
conversations between UK Attorney General Fox and
the EU's Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier. Later,
UK's McDonnell said that not many Labour MPs are
likely to back May's Brexit plan when it gets to the
Parliament next week. In the coming week, movement
in GBPINR will be driven by annual budget release and
GDP data from UK.
In this week, GBPINR (CMP: 90.80) is expected to
trade between 90.20 to 91.80
5 Minutes INR=IN 8:35 AM 03/07/2019 - 2:30 PM 03/11/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, INR=IN, 1:20 PM 03/11/2019, 69.8375, 69.8475, 69.8300, 69.8475, -0.2975, (-0.42%) Price
INR
69.8
69.85
69.9
69.95
70
70.05
70.1
70.15
70.2
69.8475
10:35 12:35 14:35 16:35 10:35 12:35 14:35 16:35 10:35 12:35
March 07 2019 March 08 2019 March 11 2019
5 Minutes EURINR=R 9:40 PM 03/01/2019 - 8:50 PM 03/11/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, EURINR=R, 1:20 PM 03/11/2019, 78.518, 78.546, 78.496, 78.535, -0.125, (-0.16%) Price
INR
78.3
78.6
78.9
79.2
79.5
79.8
80.1
80.4
80.7
78.535
23:35 11:35 23:35 14:35 02:35 14:35 02:35 14:35 02:35 14:35 23:35 11:35
Mar 04 19 Mar 05 19 Mar 06 19 Mar 07 19 Mar 08 19 Mar 11 19
30 Minutes GBPINR=R 5:00 AM 03/04/2019 - 2:30 PM 03/11/2019 (GMT)
Cndl, GBPINR=R, 8:00 AM 03/11/2019, 90.881, 90.902, 90.781, 90.823, -0.275, (-0.30%) Price
INR
90.8
91.2
91.6
92
92.4
92.8
93.2
93.6
90.823
06:30 18:30 09:30 21:30 09:30 21:30 09:30 21:30 09:30 18:30 06:30
Mar 04 19 Mar 05 19 Mar 06 19 Mar 07 19 Mar 08 19
Weekly Report – 04th
Mar to 08th
Mar

2. Gold
Last week, spot gold end flat as risk appetite amongst
investors decreased in turn increasing the demand for
Gold, the safe haven asset. Gold prices declined after
Dollar strengthened over higher U.S. Treasury yields.
Increasing US treasury yields and strong growth
witnessed by US in the fourth quarter supported Dollar in
turn making Gold expensive for other currency holders
Dovish stance by the ECB supported the U.S. Dollar Index,
which in turn limited the gains for the yellow metal. The
ECB will hold back their monetary tightening until 2020,
which pushed the US Dollar higher.
In this week, Gold (CMP: 1296) is expected to trade
between 1280 to 1310
Crude Oil
Last week, WTI crude was down by 0.1 percent
whereas Crude on the MCX was down by 0.55 percent.
Supply cuts by OPEC and U.S. sanctions on OPEC
members Venezuela and Iran continue to support the
crude. OPEC and its allies stated that the production
cuts were imposed to avoid the supply glut that could
soften prices.
However, China trimmed down there growth targets
for 2019 which raised fresh demand concerns for Crude
which pushed the prices lower.
Last week, U.S. Crude inventories rose by 7.1 million
barrels to 452.93 million barrels. U.S. crude oil
production continues to be at a record high of 12.1
million barrels per day (bpd), which is 2 million bpd
higher since early 2018 which further pressurized the
prices.
In this week, Brent Oil (CMP: 66.06) is expected to
trade between 64.50 to 66.80
Nifty
Since last few days, index was consolidating and
midcaps / small caps started attracting traders’
attention. However, first trading day of the week
turned out be the trend deciding day for our
benchmark. Due to all this positivity, Nifty has
confirmed a breakout from the ‘Falling trend Line’ on
daily chart. Thus, muted action in last two days should
be construed as a pull back or a breather. Further, if we
observe the daily chart meticulously, we can see a
formation of ‘Megaphone’ pattern. Recent supports of
10583 and 10585 being the base of the same and the
higher trend line is extended towards 11300 – 11350.
Hence, a move towards this important junction cannot
be ruled out in days to come. Traders are advised to
trade with a positive bias and expect 10994 – 10840 to
act as a strong support zone now.
In this week, Nifty (CMP: 11147) is expected to
trade between 10950 to 11360
Hourly XAU= 12:30 PM 02/26/2019 - 9:30 PM 03/05/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, XAU=, 2:30 PM 03/05/2019, 1,285.0160, 1,286.5173, 1,283.7500, 1,285.1400,
-1.2761, (-0.10%)
Price
USD
Ozs
1,285
1,290
1,295
1,300
1,305
1,310
1,315
1,320
1,325
1,285.1400
15:30 03:30 15:30 03:30 15:30 03:30 15:30 03:30 15:30 03:30 15:30
Feb 27 19 Feb 28 19 Mar 01 19 Mar 04 19 Mar 05 19
30 Minutes LCOc1 1:00 PM 03/01/2019 - 3:00 PM 03/11/2019 (LON)
Cndl, LCOc1, 8:00 AM 03/11/2019, 66.09, 66.10, 66.01, 66.05, +0.30, (+0.46%) Price
USD
Bbl
63.9
64.2
64.5
64.8
65.1
65.4
65.7
66
66.3
66.6
66.05
23:30 11:30 01:30 13:30 01:30 13:30 01:30 13:30 01:30 13:30 23:30 11:30
Mar 04 19 Mar 05 19 Mar 06 19 Mar 07 19 Mar 08 19
30 Minutes [.NSEI List 1 of 51] .NSEI 2:00 PM 03/01/2019 - 3:00 PM 03/11/2019 (BOM)
Cndl, .NSEI, 1:30 PM 03/11/2019, 11,145.90, 11,146.20, 11,141.20, 11,141.80,
+107.75, (+0.98%)
Price
INR
10,840
10,880
10,920
10,960
11,000
11,040
11,080
11,120
11,141.80
09:30 13:30 09:30 13:30 09:30 13:30 09:30 13:30 09:30 13:30
Mar 05 19 Mar 06 19 Mar 07 19 Mar 08 19 Mar 11 19