The Indian rupee edged lower against the dollar, as greenback demand from oil importers and Federal Reserve’s January minutes outweighed early gains from likely inflows. Dollar inflows related to a corporate bond issue lifted the rupee in opening trade, despite oil prices sustaining over $67 per barrel. Reversal in the Fed’s comments also lifted the dollar, hurting emerging market currencies. We expect the local unit to remain under pressure until crude prices hover near 2019 highs, while change in Fed commentary will also help the greenback rebound. Geo-political tensions at home will underpin weakness in the domestic currency.

1. Morning Brief Daily Forex Research Report as on 22‐Feb‐2019
Indian Rupee
 The Indian rupee little changed at 71.25 pair now at 71.15 against
71.25 previous close.
 Pair to tip in 71.00‐71.40 range today.
 The Indian rupee rose against the dollar in early trade as crude oil
prices came off recent highs, aiding concerns of wider trade deficit
gap at home. Some softness in crude prices is aiding the rupee.
However, we believe the dollar‐rupee pair will remain on bids as
importers will step up dollar purchases amid broad strength in the
dollar and unfavourable risk sentiments. Markets will closely track
outcome from ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China.
Global Currency
 The dollar held gains against its peers early on Friday, bolstered by a
rise in U.S. yields, while the Aussie clawed back some of its recent
plunge on upbeat central bank comments and easing concerns about
China's ban on Australian coal imports. The rise by the greenback,
however, had been limited after Thursday's soft U.S. economic data,
including an unexpected fall in core capital goods orders and weak
existing home sales, which affirmed expectations that the Federal
Reserve will hold interest rates steady.
 Sterling has swung wildly between a low of $1.2895 and a high of
$1.3109 this week as British Prime Minister Theresa May tries to
persuade European Commission chief Jean‐Claude Juncker to modify
her withdrawal deal and then get the tweaked agreement through
parliament.
Global Markets
 Oil prices fell on Friday after the United States reported its crude
output hit a record 12 million barrels per day (bpd), undermining
efforts by Middle East‐dominated producer club OPEC to withhold
supply and tighten global markets.
 Gold inched up on Friday as optimism over U.S.‐China trade talks
pressured the dollar, but signs the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise
interest rates again this year kept prices below 10‐month highs hit.

2. Global Markets at one Glance
Markets Today In INR % Change
USD/INR 71.17 71.18 0.03
EUR/USD 1.13338 80.66 0
GBP/USD 1.30278 92.70 ‐0.04
USD/JPY 110.794 0.64 ‐0.08
SEK/INR 9.3711 7.5946 0.0025
DKK/INR 6.3530 11.2025 0.0325
AUD/USD 1.4094 ‐0.11
TIME USD LIBOR EURO LIBOR
1M 2.48113 ‐0.40971
3M 2.66338 ‐0.34443
6M 2.69338 ‐0.29129
1Y 2.87425 ‐0.16586
Index
Today % Change
NIFTY 10787.25 ‐0.02
SENSEX 35891.54 ‐0.02
BANK NIFTY 26951.4 ‐0.37
SGX NIFTY 9347.5 0.33
NIKKEI 21464.23 0.15
HANG SENG 28545.23 ‐0.3
SHANGHAI 2752.732 0.03
ASX200 6167.8 0.47
DOW JONES 25850.63 ‐0.4
S&P500 # 2774.88 ‐0.35
NASDAQ # 7035.164 ‐0.38
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5 Minutes INR=IN 8:35 AM 02/20/2019 - 10:40 AM 02/22/2019 (DEL)
Cndl, INR=IN, 10:30 AM 02/22/2019, 71.1700, 71.1725, 71.1700, 71.1725, -0.0775, (-0.11%) Price
INR
70.9
70.95
71
71.05
71.1
71.15
71.2
71.25
71.3
71.1725
08:35 10:35 12:35 14:35 16:35 10:35 12:35 14:35 16:35 10:35
February 20 2019 February 21 2019
Key Events of the Day
Date Time Currency Event Forecast Previous
22‐Feb‐19 12.30 EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0% 0.0%
22‐Feb‐19 14.30 EUR German Ifo Business Climate Index 99.0 99.1
22‐Feb‐19 15.30 EUR CPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.4% 1.4%