Modelación bdhondurasen


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  • Provincial: Current project in Quang Nam province to test Globio3 model as support tool for the SEA process of the provincial Land Use Plan for 2011-2020.
  • Bd info often only for hot spots or natural parks
  • Modelación bdhondurasen

    1. 1. Modeling of the Mean Species Abundance as a PolicyTool<br />Denisse McLean<br />Belize, August 2010.<br />
    2. 2. 1.       Presentthemodelingresultstokeystakeholders and decisionmakers.<br />2.       Helpcountries in theimplementation of a new modelrunwithupdatedinformation<br />Follow up objectives<br />
    3. 3. Topresentthe fundamental concepts of GLOBIO methodology and topresenttheresults of themodelingexercisefortheregion and the country<br />PresentationObjectives<br />
    4. 4. Factorsinfluencingbiodiversityloss<br />Land use:<br />Light use: hunting and gathering<br />Moderate use: selectiveextraction, extensive pastures<br />Conversion: agriculture, woodextraction, forestplantations, cultivatedgrasslands<br />Natural areafragmentation<br />Pollution: Nitrogendeposition, nutrientleaking, toxicsubstances, noise, lights<br />Water, changes in hidrology<br />Climatechange: emissions, temperatureincrease<br />
    5. 5. Direct and indirecteconomicvalues<br />Importanceforpovertyreduction<br />Ecosistemgoods and servicesprovisionprotection<br />PoliticalcommitmenttotheConventiononBiologicalDiversity<br />Significantreduction of therate of biodiversityloss<br />NationalBiodiversityStrategies and ActionPlans (170 countries)<br />Biodiversity importance in the political context<br />
    6. 6. Estrategies to reduce biodiversity loss<br />100%<br />Original <br />Biodiversity<br />Habitat destruction<br />Overexplotation<br />Protected<br />Areas<br />Infrastructure and fragmentation<br />Pollution<br />Mitigation<br />measures<br />Climate Change<br />Restoration<br />Sustainable use<br />0%<br />
    7. 7. DevelopedbytheNetherlandEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency (PBL) and theUnitedNationEnvironmentalProgram (UNEP)<br />Methodologytomeasure and evaluatebiodiversitylossduetotheeffect of humanpressures<br />Estimatestherelativeimportance of eachpressure<br />Evaluatestheexchangesbetweensocioeconomicdevelopments and theenvironment at the global, regional and nationalscale<br />GLOBIO Methodology<br />
    8. 8. Evaluatecurrentstate<br />Identifytrends and evaluatepolicyoptions<br />Estimulatediscussion<br />Integratebiodiversity as a transversal issue<br />Supportdecisionmaking<br />GLOBIO Methodology: Objectives<br />
    9. 9. <ul><li>Whatisthecurrentstate of biodiversity?
    10. 10. Which are the causes of biodiversityloss?
    11. 11. Whatwillbethefuturestate?
    12. 12. Will (nationals/internationals) targets beattained?
    13. 13. Whichoptions can betakentoattainthem?</li></ul>GLOBIO Methodology<br />
    14. 14. GLOBIO Methodology<br />Environment<br />Biodiversity<br />Policy <br />options<br />Goals<br />future<br />past<br />present<br />
    15. 15. Known as MSA<br />Single indicatorused in themethodologytoassessbiodiversity<br />Mean abundancerelativeto original abundance in undisturbedstate<br />Proxy of theindicator of “abundance and distritution of a set of selectedspecies” recommendedby CBD<br />Mean Species Abundance<br />
    16. 16. Land use (intensity and changes)<br />Road infrastructure<br />Natural area fragmentation<br />Climate change<br />Atmospheric Nitrogen deposition<br />Pressures evaluated in GLOBIO<br />MSA<br />
    17. 17. GLOBIO Applications<br /><ul><li>GlobalUNEP Global Biodiversity Outlook2, and Geographic Environmental Outlook 4, OECD & FAO Environmental Assessments
    18. 18. RegionalGloblal deserts, Environmental Performance Assessment of the Mekong subregion, EU-Ruralis, Central America
    19. 19. NationalColombia, Ecuador, Peru, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Belize, Panama, Mexico, Nicaragua, Kenya, Mozambique, Zambia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Tailandia, Vietnam
    20. 20. ProvincesYunan (China), Quang Nam (Vietnam) </li></ul>13<br />
    21. 21. Global Model<br />14<br />
    22. 22. Global Model<br />Alkemade et al., 2009<br />
    23. 23. When other indicators do not provide enough information about the state of biodiversity in an area<br />When information is only available for specific areas<br />When looking to identify and analyse biodiversity loss trends<br />16<br />Why modeling with GLOBIO?<br />
    24. 24. When looking to evaluate the impact of human pressures in biodiversity<br />When looking to evaluate quantitatively and qualitatively the impact of environmental policies<br />When looking to prove if policies will attain the expected environmental objectives<br />Why modeling with GLOBIO?<br />
    25. 25. Methodology and indicator limitations<br />Contexts of application<br />Figures vs. Trends<br />Need to complement with other indicators<br />Input quality<br />Models are not definitive and should be improved based on available information<br />In order to generate incidence results should be embedded in a specific policy process<br />Pointstoconsider<br />
    26. 26. Questions and Comments<br />Thankyou<br />