Resultados&discusión hondurasen

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Resultados&discusión hondurasen

  1. 1. National and Regional GLOBIO Modelingresults<br />Denisse McLean<br />Belize, August 2010.<br />
  2. 2. Modeling Work in Central America<br />Colaboration between Central American Commission (CCAD) – IRBIO - PBL<br />In line withthecommitmentsadoptedwith CBD<br />First regional evaluationbuiltuponnational individual evaluations<br />
  3. 3. Modeling Work in Central America<br />Objectives:<br />To implement a scientifically supported methodology in the Central American region<br />To adapt a global methodology to a regional – national context<br />To integrate the topic of biodiversity in the policy making process<br />To develop local biodiversity modeling capacity<br />
  4. 4. Regional teamcoordination<br />Establishment of the regional advanceteam in charge of thefirstmodelingexercise:<br />MSA valuerevisionteam<br />Scenariodevelopmentteam<br />Modelationteam<br />Team training in themethodology<br />Coordination of linkedwork<br />
  5. 5. Local capacitydevelopment<br />Training fornationalenvironmentalauthorities’ technicians<br />Firstbasic GLOBIOmodelingmethodologyworkshop<br />Secondadvanced CLUE land use modelingworkshop<br />Input informationexchangefor regional modeling<br />
  6. 6. Inputs<br /><ul><li>Spatial inputs
  7. 7. Nationalland use maps
  8. 8. Road maps
  9. 9. Populationdensitymaps
  10. 10. Ecosystemmaps
  11. 11. Teaminformation
  12. 12. Modelparameters
  13. 13. Scenarios
  14. 14. MSA valuesevaluation
  15. 15. GLOBIO impactcategories per pressure</li></li></ul><li>Scenariosconsidered<br />
  16. 16. Assumptions<br />PolicyoptionsbasedonBaselinescenarioprojections<br />Independencybetweenoptions<br />Political and climaticstability<br />Variables relatedtoland use changewereincluded<br />The values of some variables wereapproximated<br />
  17. 17. Scenario figures<br />Supportinformation<br />Data series<br />Projections<br />Files<br />Articles<br />Sistematiclack of informationforevery country and everyland use<br />
  18. 18. Obtainedproducts<br />National and regional maps<br />Aggregated figures<br />Reports<br />Data bases<br />Developed local capacity<br />
  19. 19. Regional Results<br />
  20. 20. Regional Results<br />
  21. 21. Regional Results<br />
  22. 22. Regional Results<br />
  23. 23. Regional Results<br />
  24. 24. Regional Results - PA<br />
  25. 25. Regional Results - PA<br />
  26. 26. Regional Results - PA<br />
  27. 27. Regional Results - PA<br />
  28. 28. NationalResults<br />
  29. 29. NationalResults<br />
  30. 30. NationalResults<br />CurrentState<br />BaselineScenario<br />ALIDES Scenario<br />Free TradeScenario<br />
  31. 31. NationalResults<br />
  32. 32. NationalResults<br />
  33. 33. FollowingSteps<br />In thecountries:<br />Reportrevision<br />Improvement of informationquality<br />Comparison of resultsbetweencountries<br />Embedding of results in politicalprocesses<br />Evaluation of new scenarios<br />PARCA III<br />FTA EuropeanUnion<br />Aquaticecosystem module<br />
  34. 34. FollowingSteps<br />In the Project:<br />Model transfer and follow up<br />Resultpresentationtointerestedstakeholders<br />Analysis of policyimplications<br />Toolimprovements<br />
  35. 35. Primer ejercicio metodológico. <br />No se trata de un análisis exhaustivo, definitivo, de nivel científico de precisión. <br />Existe información más actualizada y/o validada que no pudo ser integrada. <br />Por lo tanto, los resultados no se consideran validados ni oficializados por los países. <br />Reportclarifications<br />
  36. 36. The objective of theexercisewastobuildthefirst preliminar approximationtothestate and trends in biodiversity in terms of the Mean Species Abundancefromthe data available at themoment of modelapplicationaccordingtothesourcesconsultedand todeliverthesemodelstothecountries.<br />Reportclarifications<br />
  37. 37. The resultswithprovidethecountrieswith a valuabletooltosupporttheirenvironmentalmanagement and decisionmaking. The models can beused as aninstrumenttostimulatediscussion and tointegratethetopic of biodiversityintoothersectorsthroughtheconsideration, planning and design of policyalternatives.<br />Reportclarifications<br />
  38. 38. Countries are expectedtomaintainthemodelsbyimprovingresultswithupdatedinformation and byevaluating new scenariosand policyoptionsaccordingtoemergingneeds, possibilities and interests in each country orwithinthewholeregion.<br />Reportclarifications<br />
  39. 39. Isthequality of the input informationenoughto derive conclusionsfromresults?<br />Whatconclusions can bederivedfornational and regional policies?<br />Whichapplications can bemadewiththeresults and themodels?<br />Pointstodiscuss<br />
  40. 40. Howtokeepthemodelingcapacity in thecountries?<br />Whichpoliticalprocesseswouldbethemostadequatetoembedthemodels?<br />Whichaspectstoimprove? F.E. Quality of input information, MSA values, validation<br />Isitnecessarytohave a follow up?<br />In whichareasshouldthefollow up beimplemented?<br />Pointstodiscuss<br />
  41. 41. Listthecurrentpolicies in the country thatimpactpositivelyornegativelybiodiversityconservation, protection and use<br />Listtheupcomingpolicies in the country thatcouldimpactpositivelyornegativelybiodiversityconservation, protection and use<br />Pointstodiscuss<br />
  42. 42. Questions and Comments<br />Thankyou<br />

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