Useful for Agricultural Economic research studies

1. Research Paper
Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences
8(4): 875-878, July-August (2017)
ISSN: 0976-1675 https:// www.rjas.org DI: 2936-1409-2015-200
Productivity and Sustainability of Maize under Climate Change Scenario in
Karnataka
H M Swamy, G B Lokesh and B V Deepthi
Department of Agricultural Economics,
University of Agricultural Sciences, Raichur - 584 104, Karnataka, India
e-mail: swamyak9128@gmail.com
Received: 14 September 2015; Revised accepted: 20 May 2017
A B S T R A C T
The impact of climate change on agriculture could result in problems with food security and threaten the
livelihood activities upon which majority of population depend in India. The study reveals that in Karnataka the
area, production and yield of maize crop has been studiedly increasing over the years with the annual growth rate
of 7.2 percent, 9.4 per cent and 2.32 per cent respectively. The relationship between rainfall and production is
significant (P value 0.002) were as the rainfall and yield is not significant (p value 6.028E-05) this shows that yield is
not only influenced by rainfall but also other climatic factors, managing factors, pest and disease and size of
holdings. In study area majority of farmers belong to marginal farmers (<1ha) accounting for about 49.14 per cent
(38 lakh) of total famers (78 lakh). As the marginal farmers were highly vulnerable to climate change. The study
suggests that as the impact of climate change is intensifying day by day it should be addressed through policy
perspective that the focus is to be on the marginal farmers as their number are more and their livelihood
dependent on rainfed situation and there is a need for developing coping mechanisms for climate change
compared to other categories of farmers.
Key words: Climate change, Maize, Raifned, Yield, Operational holding, Marginal farmers
he climate change is a scientifically explained
phenomenon taking place over the years and
affecting different regions differently, depending on their
geographical location, distance from the sea or ocean, land
use and the economic state. The climate change was
considered to be a naturally occurring phenomenon until
recently when it was suggested that human emissions could
be a party to the changing trends. Like every coin has two
sides, the issue of 'Human Induced Climate Change' also has
two versions. One school of thought suggests that the
change is but natural and the human contribution to it is
negligible. On the other hand, the second opinion states that
the changes in the climate are a result of the human
emissions over the years, especially since the industrial
revolution. Maize (Zea mays L) is one of the most versatile
emerging crops having wider adaptability under varied agro-
climatic conditions. It is the third most important cereal crop
in India after rice and wheat. It is used for various purposes
such as human food (23%), poultry feed (51%), animal feed
(12%), industrial (starch) products (12%), beverages and
seed (1% each). In India maize is grown in all three season,
it is predominantly a kharif crop with 85 per cent of the area
under cultivation. It accounts for 9 per cent of total food
grain production in the country. During 2013-14, the area,
production and productivity of maize in India was 9.4
million hectare, 23 million tons and productivity 2.5 metric
tons per hectare respectively. The annual compound growth
of area, production and productivity of maize during 2004-
05 to 2013-14 was 2.5 percent, 5.5 per cent and 2.9 per cent
respectively. In Karnataka area under maize crop is 1.3
million hectare, with a production of 4.4 million metric tons
and the yield of 3.5 tons per hectare in 2013-14. The
productivity of maize in Karnataka is highest (3.5 tons per
ha) compared to all India level (2.5 metric tons per ha). It is
a warm weather crop and is not grown in areas where the
mean daily temperature is less than 19°C or where the mean
of the summer months is less than 23°C. The critical
temperature detrimentally affecting yield is approximately
32°C. With respect to water requirement Approximately 10
to 16 kg of grain are produced for every millimeter of water
used. A yield of 3 152 kg/ha requires between 350 and 450
mm of rain per annum. At maturity, each plant requires 250
liters of water in the absence of moisture stress, this yield
variability greatly influenced by rain fall. The average
annual rainfall in Karnataka is 1248 mm (124.8cm). The
state is divided into three meteorological zones viz. North
T
875

2. Interior Karnataka, South Interior Karnataka and Coastal
Karnataka. Coastal Karnataka with an average annual
rainfall of 3456 mm (345.6cm) is one of the rainiest regions
in the country. Contrasting this, the region of South Interior
Karnataka and North Interior Karnataka receive only 1286
(128.6 cm) and 731 mm (73.1 cm) of average annual rainfall
but the state average rain fall which is less than the nation
average that is 125 cm with great spatial variations. Over
80% of the annual rainfall is received in the four rainy
months of June to September. Areas of Less Rainfall (50-
100 cm): Upper Ganga valley, eastern Rajasthan, Punjab,
Southern Plateau of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil
Nadu.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The secondary data of rainfall from the meteorological
department and area, production, yield, irrigated area, un-
irrigated area of maize crop which is taken from the
directorate of agricultural economics and statistics
Karnataka. Objective of this analysis is to explore the
relationship between yield, production with the climate
variable i.e. rainfall and to estimate the potential effects of
rainfall on the yield of maize using regression analysis and
time series data of average rain fall of Karnataka taken as
independent variable and production, yield are taken as
dependent variable. Finally the effects of this rain fall on
production; yield will be related to the number and size of
operational holding of farmers in Karnataka.
Possible impact of climatic change on crop production
Indian agriculture is facing challenges due to several
factors such as increased competition for land, water and
labour from non-agricultural sectors and increasing climatic
variability. The latter associated with global warming will
result in considerable seasonal/annual fluctuations in food
production. All agricultural commodities even today are
sensitive to such variability. Droughts, floods, tropical
cyclones, heavy precipitation events, hot extremes and heat
waves are known to negatively impact agricultural
production, and farmers’ livelihood. It has been projected by
the recent report of the IPCC and a few other global studies
that unless we adapt, there is a probability of 10–40% loss in
crop production in India by 2080–2100 due to global
warming (Naresh et al. 2011) in rainfed areas, rainfall plays
an important role in the crop cycle. The yield totally
depends upon the amount and intensity of rainfall, in
Karnataka there has been erratic distribution of rain fall
resulted in farming sector in Karnataka has been going
through a painful phase since the last few years and about
2,909 farmers committed suicide across the State during the
last one decade (2003-04 to July 31, 2012).this is primarily
occurred due to agrarian distress caused by crop loss on
account of drought, floods and diseases; debts; high farming
cost, reported by Institute for Social and Economic Change
(ISEC), Bangalore. The growth rate of the agriculture sector
has been erratic during the last five years. According to
Economic Survey, the sector recorded growth of 12.4 per
cent of Gross State Domestic Product in 2007-08, 2.3 per
cent in 2008-09, 3.6 per cent in 2009-10, and 13.3 per cent
in 2011-11 and – (minus) 2.9 per cent in 2011-12. The State
faced five consecutive droughts during the (2001-2012).
With declaration of 140 taluks as drought-hit in the current
sowing season, the State is facing the worst drought in the
last 40 years.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
In Karnataka area under maize crop has been studiedly
increasing over the years, from the (Table 1) shows that in
the year 2000-01 the area under maize crop was 669
thousand hectare's where as in 2013-14. It was 1300
thousand hectare's with a annual growth rate of 7.2 per cent
but the production of maize crop was changing erratically
with the changing rainfall distribution even though annual
growth rate of production is 9.4 per cent but if we see
production from the (Table 1) in the year 2009-10 it was
4444 thousand tone's and in the year 2011-12 it was 3247
thousand tone's but if we see in 2013-14 again it is raised to
4400 thousand tone's.
Table 1 Area, production, yield of maize in Karnataka
Year Area ('000 hectare) Production ('000 tones) Yield (kg/ha)
2000-01 668.9 1451.7 3193
2001-02 580.1 1343 2502
2002-03 649.5 1209.9 2068
2003-04 618.1 2512 1957
2004-05 850 2728 2955
2005-06 936 2719 2915
2006-07 961 3254 2829
2007-08 1113 3029 2924
2008-09 1069 3013 2833
2009-10 1240 4444 2430
2010-11 1288 4085 3450
2011-12 1331 3247 3018
2012-13 1315.5 3823.5 3259
2013-14 1300 4400 3500
% CAGR 7.2 9.4 2.32
Directorate of economics and statistics in Karnataka
Swamy et al. 2017 Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences 8(4)
876

3. The average rainfall of Karnataka is less than the
average rainfall of India (Asha Latha et al. 2012) from the
(Table 2) indicates that R2
value for maize production in
Karnataka is 0.11 i.e. (11%) it depicts 11 per cent change in
the grain production is influenced only by the rain fall
remaining 89 percent will be influenced by other factors
other than the rain fall such as temperature, pest and
diseases, management practices etc. and P value is
significant indicating that rainfall having a considerable
influence on production and yield is having a R2
value of
0.056 i.e. (5%) indicating one percent change in the rainfall
having only 5 percent influence on the yield of maize with P
value 6*105
showing non-significance, rainfall is having less
influence on maize yield there may be other factors which
are having greater influence on yield of maize as mentioned
above.
Table 2 Relationship between area, production and yield of maize crop in Karnataka
Year Karnataka average rain fall (cm) Production ('000 tones) Yield (kg/ha)
2000-01 141.3 1451.7 3193
2001-02 120.7 1343 2502
2002-03 86.7 1209.9 2068
2003-04 86 2512 1957
2004-05 110.1 2728 2955
2005-06 138.8 2719 2915
2006-07 108.6 3254 2829
2007-08 80 3029 2924
2008-09 75 3013 2833
2009-10 97.5 4444 2430
2010-11 100.45 4085 3450
2011-12 100.58 3247 3018
2012-13 80 3823.5 3259
R Square 0.111 0.056
P-value 0.002* 6.02816E-05 (NS) **
Karnataka state natural disaster management centre, Raithamitra.com
From the (Table 3) it indicates that the average size of
operational holding of marginal, semi medium, medium and
large farmers showing the marginal changes in operational
holding i.e. 4.3 per cent increase in the operational size
among the marginal farmers, were as in case of semi
medium, medium and large farmers showing decreasing
trend in the average size of operational holding by 1.47 per
cent, 2.57 per cent and 0.35 per cent respectively. By
considering above factors the results revealed that marginal
decreasing trend in the average size of operational holding
of semi medium, medium and large farmers was mainly due
to decrease in the number of holdings and area operated. In
case of marginal farmers number of holdings increased by
597 from the year 2001-2011, but the average size of
operational holding remains same and also due to climate
change there will be a considerable effect on the livelihood
of the marginal farmers when compared to other classes of
farmers.
Table 3 Average size of operational holding in Karnataka
Size class
2000-01 2010-11
Number of
holding
(in 000')
Area
operated (in
000' hectare)
Average size
of operational
holding (ha)
Number of
holding (in
000')
Area
operated (in
000' hectare)
Average size
of operational
holding (ha)
Marginal (<1ha) 3252 1492 0.46 3849 1851 0.48
Small (1-2ha) 2742 2742 1 2138 3020 1.41
Semi medium (2-4ha) 1260 3428 2.72 1267 3393 2.68
Medium (4-10a) 569 3317 5.83 511 2904 5.68
Large (>=10ha) 89 1328 14.92 67 994 14.84
Agriculture census 2001 and Agriculture census 2010
The results of the investigation as depicted in (Table 4)
reveals that the area under irrigated maize is increasing at
the annual growth rate of 10.63 per cent were as the area
under rainfed maize is decreasing at the annual growth of
rate of 7.81 per cent this is because of erratic distribution of
rainfall, other climatic factors and maize crop is
predominantly water intensive crop as each plant requires
250 liters of water for the growth and development
(Raithamitra.com 2011), hence most of the farmers are
growing the maize as a irrigated crop in the recent years.
The climatic change will have the greater impact on the
rainfed maize than irrigated maize. From the table III we
know that the numbers of marginal farmers are more
compared to other farmers therefore the livelihood of the
marginal farmers is more affected by climatic change than
other categories of farmers.
Productivity and Sustainability of Maize under Climate Change Scenario
877

4. Table 4 Changing trends in irrigated and un-irrigated maize crop in Karnataka
Year Irrigated area in thousand hectares Rain fed area in thousand hectare
2001-02 235 415.56
2002-03 255 427.26
2003-04 216 459.57
2004-05 321 491.88
2005-06 379 556.5
2006-07 367 593.16
2007-08 447 665.64
2008-09 431 636.42
2009-10 485 755.32
2010-11 500 775.59
CAGR (%) 10.63 7.81
Directorate of economics and statistics in Karnataka
The climatic factor such as occurrence of rainfall alone
have not significant impact on the production and yield of
rainfed maize but it also depends on many other climatic
factors like drought, flood, temperature, management factors
and pest and diseases etc. As the marginal rainfed farmers
were highly vulnerable to climate change and shifting to
other professions. The study suggests that as the impact of
climate change is intensifying day by day it should be
addressed through policy perspective that the focus is to be
on the marginal farmers as their number are more and their
livelihood dependent on rainfed situation and there is a need
of developing mechanism of cropping pattern to the climatic
change and coping mechanisms for climate change
compared to large farmers.
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Directorate of Economics and Statistics. 2011-12. Agricultural Statistics at a Glance. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of
Karnataka, Natural disaster management centre, Raithamitra.com.
Grant F R, Jackson B S, Kiniry J R and Arkin G F. 1989. Water deficit timing effects on yield components in maize.
Agronomy Journal 5(8): 61-65.
Khuram R and Ghulam R. 2009. Rainfall variability and maize production over the Potohar Plateau of Pakistan. Pakistan
Journal of Meteorology 6(8): 15.
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Oseni T O and Masarirambi M T. 2011. Effect of climate change on maize (Zea mays) production and food security in
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Venkateswarlu B and Rama Rao C A. 2010. Rainfed agriculture: Challenges of climate change. Agriculture Today Yearbook
pp 43-45.
Swamy et al. 2017 Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences 8(4)
878