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1. 1 23
Water Resources Management
An International Journal - Published
for the European Water Resources
Association (EWRA)
ISSN 0920-4741
Volume 26
Number 3
Water Resour Manage (2012)
26:623-641
DOI 10.1007/s11269-011-9936-5
Sustainability of Groundwater Resources in
the North-Eastern Region of Bangladesh
Md Hossain Ali, Ismail Abustan,
Md Ashiqur Rahman & Abu Ahmed
Mokammel Haque

2. 1 23
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3. Sustainability of Groundwater Resources
in the North-Eastern Region of Bangladesh
Md Hossain Ali & Ismail Abustan &
Md Ashiqur Rahman & Abu Ahmed Mokammel Haque
Received: 3 May 2011 /Accepted: 11 October 2011 /
Published online: 26 October 2011
# Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011
Abstract Water is essential for economic, social, and environmental development. Global water
resources are vulnerable due to increasing demand related to population growth, pollution
potential, and climate change. Competition for water between different sectors is increasing. To
meet the increasing demand, the use of groundwater is increasing worldwide. In this paper, the
water-table dynamics of the north-eastern region of Bangladesh were studied using the
MEKESENS software. This study reveals that the depth to water-table (WT) of almost all the
wells is declining slowly. In many cases, the depth will approximately double by the year 2040,
and almost all will double by 2060, if the present trend continues. If the decline of the water-table
is allowed to continue in the long run, the result could be a serious threat to the ecology and to the
sustainability of food production, which is vital for the nation’s food security. Therefore,
necessary measures should be taken to sustain water resources and thereby agricultural
production. Demand-side management of water and the development of alternative surface water
sources seem to be viable strategies for the area. These strategies could be employed to reduce
pressure on groundwater and thus maintain the sustainability of the resource.
Keywords Groundwater. Sustainable development . Agriculture . Bangladesh
1 Introduction
Ecosystems and natural resources support life on Earth and provide inputs and services to
the economy. Water is a vital natural resource and is a key prerequisite for all three
dimensions of sustainable development—economic, social, and environmental.
Water Resour Manage (2012) 26:623–641
DOI 10.1007/s11269-011-9936-5
M. H. Ali (*) :I. Abustan :A. A. M. Haque
University Sains Malaysia, Nibong Tebal, Penang, Malaysia
e-mail: hossain.ali.bina@gmail.com
M. A. Rahman
Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh
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4. By 2030, the world economy is projected to double, and the world population is
expected to increase by one-third (Gurria 2009). To feed these people, crop production
should be increased by 33%. This demand will increase the agricultural sector’s pressure on
water resources. To support the changing lifestyle of people, pressure on water resources
from energy production and industries will also increase. The pressure on water resources is
exacerbated by the continued deterioration of freshwater quality. The pollution of water
from both agricultural fields and industrial areas also affects water resources. Climate
change is expected to worsen the problem of water availability.
Many countries or regions are facing increasing competition for water resources among
domestic, industrial, and agricultural uses—or between users and environmental needs. The
agricultural sector needs particular attention, as it accounts for approximately 70% of the
water used worldwide. Overexploitation of groundwater has been reported in many parts of
the world. For example, the water level of the main aquifer in India has been receding
(Chawla et al. 2010). Las Vegas, Beijing, Bangkok and Manila are all suffering from severe
water shortages because of the overexploitation of groundwater at different rates (World
Water Day 1998). Some parts of Bangladesh are experiencing a similar problem. For
example, in Dhaka city, over-extraction has caused the water-table (WT) to fall by as much
as 40 m in some places (Sarkar and Ali 2009). In most parts of the country, farmers have
been forced to replace their suction mode pumps with submersible pumps because of the
continuous decline in groundwater levels. Over-extraction issues are also reported for some
parts of Sri Lanka (Villholth and Rajasooriyar 2010), China (Yin et al. 2011), Pakistan
(Qureshi et al. 2010), and Spain (Molina et al. 2011).
Bangladesh is an agrarian country, and 85% of its population depends on agricultural
activities, whether directly or indirectly. The livelihood of the inhabitants and national
development activities largely depend on the success of agricultural production. Agriculture
plays a major role in the national economy and is the second largest sector in gross national
product (GDP). In Bangladesh, food grain production increased from 405 to 1,860 million tons
during the period 1981 to 2007 (BBS 2008) because of the introduction of irrigated crop
production during the dry period (November–April). The demand for irrigation water was
mainly met by tube-wells, the number of which swelled from approximately 1,500 Deep
Tube-wells (DTW) and 140,000 Shallow Tube-wells (STW) to 32,174 DTW and 1,374,548
STW during this period (BADC 2008). The groundwater resources in the country should be
used in a sustainable manner to maintaining them for future generations. The concept of
sustainable development is centered on the idea of controlling resource utilization to levels
that could be sustained over a long period. Sustainable groundwater yield is commonly
defined as development and use of groundwater resource in a manner that can be maintained
for an indefinite time without causing adverse/unacceptable environmental, economic, or
social consequences (Alley and Leake 2004). The sustainable yield of a groundwater system
must be less than the total recharge to ensure a healthy status of river, spring or other
groundwater dependent ecosystems.
Within this context, the authors decided to examine the long-term behavior of
groundwater in the north-eastern alluvial delta of Bangladesh, a major agricultural site of
the country, with the following questions in mind:
(a) What is the trend of the water-table position starting from the beginning of massive
tube-well installation?
(b) Is it possible to suggest appropriate strategies for the management of groundwater
on a sustainable basis with a view toward maintaining sustainable agricultural
productivity?
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5. 2 Materials and Methods
2.1 Description of the Study Area
2.1.1 Site Location and Observation Wells
The north-eastern region of Bangladesh is part of the Ganges Alluvial Plain, and it
covers the districts of Mymensingh, Sherpur, Netrakona, and Kishorgong (known as
the greater Mymensingh area). This region is situated between 25°33′ to 26°32′ North
and 89°55′ to 90°51′ East, and it covers a geographical area of 2.0 million hectares.
The present study is, however, based on part of a configuration of four districts
(Mymensingh district only, comprising 11 sub-districts called ‘Upazila’), as data for
all the reorganized districts were not available (Fig. 1). The number of observation
wells under each Upazila is given in Table 1. The water-table data (available from 1985 to
2004) were collected from the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB), which is
the department responsible for water-related records. The water-table data were recorded
in observation wells. Depths to water-table were recorded fortnightly by ‘water level
indicator’. From the monthly records, maximum depth to water-table was taken for
analysis.
2.1.2 Topography and Hydro-Geological Conditions
The topography of most of the area is plain, except for a portion of Bhaluka and
Trishal Upazila that is known locally as the Modhupur tract area. The surface soils are
alluvial in nature, varying from sandy loam to clay loams having a deep clay profile. The
sub-surface aquifers are alluvial in nature and are composed of a heterogeneous complex
mass of fine sands, coarse sands, and gravels. The hydraulic conductivity varies between
5 and 10 m3
/m2
/day, and produces a specific yield between 0.10 and 0.30 (Mojid et al.
1994).
Rice, wheat, and pulses are the principal crops, with some areas also used for
horticultural crops. The cropping intensity of the area is approximately 175%, with rice in
common for cropping patterns both of the kharif (summer) and rabi (winter) seasons.
Approximately 5% of the area of this zone is severely affected by soil and water erosion
due to steep slopes and high rainfall. In most parts, the depth to the water-table is
approximately 20–30 m, but in some places (especially in deep alluvial deposits), the
underground reservoirs are deep (80–100 m), with water quality ranging from good to
excellent in most of the region.
2.1.3 Rainfall Pattern of the Area
The annual rainfall at the study site varies from 1,600 mm to 3,400 mm; approximately
70% of this rainfall occurs during the months of May–August which is noted as monsoon
season (Fig. 2). The yearly rainfall fluctuates considerably.
2.2 Pattern of Water-Table Fluctuations
The seasonal and long-term patterns of WT fluctuations are presented graphically to explain
the dynamics of the groundwater system. The yearly maximum depth to water-table is used
to find the long-term trend.
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6. 2.3 Studies of Water-Table Trend
The “MAKESENS” software was used to detect and estimate trends. This software is based
on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test for trends and the non-parametric Sen’s method
Fig. 1 Location map of the study area
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7. for the magnitude of the trend (Salmi et al. 2002). The advantage of the non-parametric
method is that it is applicable for both monotonic and non-monotonic trends, and it can
operate with missing data.
The model also exploits both the so-called S statistics and Z statistics (the normal
approximation) given by Gilbert (1987). For time series with fewer than 10 data points, the
S test is used; for time series with 10 or more data points, the Z test is used.
Mann-Kendall test The Mann-Kendall test is applicable in cases where the data values xi of
a time series can be assumed to obey the model
xi ¼ f ti
ð Þ þ ei ð1Þ
where f (t) is a continuous monotonic increasing or decreasing function of time and the
residuals εi can be assumed to be from the same distribution with a zero mean. It is
therefore assumed that the variance of the distribution is constant in time.
Fewer Than 10 Data Values The number of annual values in the studied data series is
denoted by n. When the number of data values is less than 10, the Mann-Kendall test
statistic S is calculated using the formula
S ¼
X
n1
k1
X
n
j1
sgn xj xk
ð2Þ
where xj and xk are the annual values in years j and k, respectively (jk), and
sgn xj xk
¼
1 if xj xk 0
0 if xj xk ¼ 0
1 if xj xk 0
2
4
3
5 ð3Þ
If n is 9 or less, the absolute value of S is compared directly with the theoretical
distribution of S derived by Mann and Kendall (Gilbert 1987). In MAKESENS, the two-
tailed test is used for four different significance levels of α: 0.1, 0.05, 0.01 and 0.001.
SL No. Upazila Total well Well number(s)
1 Mymensingh Sadar 2 24, 52
2 Trishal 3 25, 56, 61
3 Gauripur 2 32, 46
4 Muktagachha 3 30, 55, 58
5 Phulpur 5 01, 20, 49, 67, 79
6 Iswarganj 4 08, 43, 45, 81
7 Fulbaria 3 23, 57, 59
8 Gafargon 3 29, 62, 89
9 Haluaghat 3 21, 22, 50
10 Bhaluka 4 60, 80, 84, 85
11 Nandail 5 09, 31, 44, 48, 64
Table 1 Well numbers under the
different Upazila of the
Mymensingh district used
for the study
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8. The minimum values of n with which these four significance levels can be reached are
derived from the probability table for S as follows:
Significance level (α) required n
0.1 ≥ 4
0.05 ≥ 5
0.01 ≥ 6
0.001 ≥ 7
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rainfall
(cm)
Months
Monthly distribution of rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Rainfall
(cm)
Year
Yearly rainfall pattern
(b)
(a)
Fig. 2 (a) Long-term average monthly pattern, and (b) yearly rainfall at the study area
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9. Details regarding the MAKESENS model can be found in Salmi et al. (2002).
The WT conditions are predicted as:
WT m
ð Þ ¼ B þ Q Simulation year Base year
ð Þ ð4Þ
where B is the intercept and Q is the slope of the trend line, which were found from model
output. The simulation years were selected as 2020, 2040, and 2060. The base year was
1985 (the first year of the data set).
3 Results and Discussion
3.1 Water-Table (WT) Pattern
Yearly Cyclic Pattern Figure 3a presents a hydrograph of the monthly maximum and
minimum depth to the water-table of well No. 24, which is under Mymensingh Sadar
Upazila. The graphs show that the depth to WT reaches its maximum value during
March to April and regains its position or minimum value during September to
October.
The long-term monthly pattern of the WT is shown in Fig. 3b. This figure indicates that
the WT declines for each month.
Yearly Long-Term Pattern The long-term scenario of the yearly maximum depth to WT of
different Upazila of the greater Mymensingh district are depicted in Fig. 4a and b. The
figure shows that the depths to WT are within the suction limit for all of the observation
wells at Gouripur and Phulpur Upazila.
At Mymensingh Sadar Upazila (Fig. 4a), the depth to WT of the studied wells fluctuates
around and within the suction limit up to the years 1991–1993 and then gradually declines.
At Trishal Upazila, one observation well (No. 61) remains within the suction limit, however
the other two wells run below the suction limit from 1985 on.
At Muktagacha Upazila, two observation wells run in and around the suction limit,
and the third runs far below the suction limit (12 m to 17 m). At Gafargaon and
Fulbaria, most wells are within the suction limit up to the year 1989, after which they
gradually decline.
At Ishwargonj, Bhaluka, Haluaghat and Nandail Upazila (Fig. 4b), some of the wells are
within the suction limit, and others are below and gradually declining.
Overall, the WT data reveal that in some areas, the groundwater level permits the use of
shallow tube-wells, which are a cheaper pumping unit than deep tube-wells.
3.2 Long-Term Trend of the Water-Table
Present Trend The long-term linear trends of maximum depth to water-table under
different Upazila are shown in Fig. 5a–e. At Phulpur Upazila (Fig. 5a), an increasing
trend is apparent in one well (No. 49), however a decreasing trend is found in the
other wells. Significant decreasing trends are observed in two observation wells (well
no. 67 and well no. 01). At Ishwargonj Upazila, a decreasing trend is observed for all
the wells.
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10. At Bhaluka Upazila (Fig. 5b), a decreasing trend is found for three observation wells,
and a highly fluctuating pattern for one observation well is observed. At Nandail Upazila,
all the wells show a decreasing trend, and there are significant decreasing trends in two
wells (well no. 44 and well no. 48).
At Fulbaria Upazila (Fig. 5c), the trend is negative (decreasing) for all the wells. At
Muktagacha, the trend is negative in all but one well. This positive trend (or rise in WT)
may be due to the creation of a favorable recharge area within the recharge zone of the well
(such as digging large ponds for fish rearing within the well recharge area).
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Months 1985
WT (max)
WT (min)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Depth
to
WT
(m)
1989
WT (max)
WT (min)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1993
WT (max)
WT (min)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1997
WT (max)
WT (min)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2001
WT (max)
WT (min)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
2003
WT (max)
WT (min)
a
Fig. 3 a Long-term monthly pattern of WT at Mymensingh Sadar (Well no. 24). b Lon-term monthly pattern
of maximum and minimum WT at Mymensingh Sadar (Well no. 24)
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11. 0
3
6
9
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Year
Jan
max
min
0
3
6
9
12
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Feb max
min
0
5
10
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Mar max
min
0
5
10
15
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Apr max
min
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
May max
min
0
2
4
6
8
10
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
June max
0
3
6
9
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Year
July
max
min
0
3
6
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Aug max
min
0
3
6
9
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Sept max
min
0
2
4
6
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Oct max
min
0
2
4
6
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Nov max
min
0
2
4
6
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Dec
max
min
b
15
Fig. 3 (continued)
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12. At Gafargon Upazila (Fig. 5d), a decreasing trend in two wells and an increasing trend in
one well are observed. At Haluaghat, a decreasing trend for all the wells is observed.
At Mymensingh Sadar and Trishal Upazila (Fig. 5e), the trend is negative for all the
wells. At Gouripur, the trend is negative for one well (well no. 46) and positive for another
(well no. 32).
The above observations show that the depth to WT is declining for almost all the
wells. There are few exceptions, which may be due to the availability of additions to
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
WT
(m)
Mymensingh Sadar
Year
Well-24 Well-52
Suc. Lift
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
WT
(m)
Trishal
Year
Well-25
Well-56
Well-61
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Gouripur
Well-32
Well-46
Suc. Lift
-18
-14
-10
-6
-2
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Muktagacha Well-30 Well-55
Well-58 Suc. Lift
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Gafargaon Well-29
Well-62
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Phulpur Well-01 Well-20
Well-67 Well-79
Suc. Lift
a
Fig. 4 a Long term yearly water table (WT) scenario of Mymensingh Sadar, Trishal, Gauripur,
Muktagachha, Gafargaon and Phulpur Upazila. b Long term (1985-04) yearly water table (WT) scenario
of Iswargong, Fulbaria, Bhaluka, Haluaghat and Nandail Upazila
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13. recharge facilities. The data-recording system should also be checked to confirm such
trends.
Future Scenario The projected scenarios of WT for different years using the MAKESENS
software tool are summarized in Table 2. The depth to WT declines slowly in most cases,
except one observation well at Fulbaria Upazila (well no. 23). However, in many cases (e.g., 3
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
WT
(m)
Nandail
Well-9 Well-31
Well-44 Well-48
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Year
Iswargong
Well-43 Well-45
Well-81 Well-08
Suc. Lift
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Fulbaria Well-23
Well-57
Well-59
Suc. Lift
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Bhaluka Well-60 Well-80
Well-84 Well-85
Suc. Lift
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3
Haluaghat
Well-21 Well-22
Well-50 Suc. Lift
b
Fig. 4 (continued)
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14. y = -0.062x + 4.914
R² = 0.123
0
4
8
0 5 10 15 20 25
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Relative year
Phulpur Well-49
y = 0.072x + 4.112
R² = 0.354
0
4
8
0 5 10 15 20 25
Phulpur Well-67
y = 0.008x + 5.325
R² = 0.016
0
4
0 5 10 15 20 25
Phulpur
y = 0.357x + 3.154
R² = 0.830
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20 25
Relative year
Iswargonj
Well-81
y = 0.039x + 3.456
R² = 0.287
0
4
8
0 5 10 15 20 25
Iswargonj Well-08
y = 0.106x + 3.871
R² = 0.722
0
4
8
0 5 10 15 20 25
Iswargonj Well-43
y = 0.072x + 2.650
R² = 0.532
0
4
8
0 5 10 15 20 25
Phulpur
Well-01
y = 0.001x + 6.619
R² = 3E-05
0
4
8
12
16
0 5 10 15 20 25
Phulpur Well-20
y = 0.098x + 5.073
R² = 0.164
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20 25
Iswargonj
Well-45
a
8
Fig. 5 a Long term trend of yearly maximum depth to water table for Phulpur and Iswarganj Upazila. b
Long term trend of yearly maximum depth to water table for Bhaluka and Nandail. c Long term trend of
yearly maximum depth to water table for Fulbaria and Muktagacha Upazila. d Long term trend of yearly
maximum depth to water table for Gafargaon and Haluaghat. e Long term trend of yearly maximum depth to
water table for Mymensingh Sadar, Gouripur and Trishal
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15. y = 0.121x + 5.210
R² = 0.277
0
4
8
12
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Relative year
Bhaluka Well-84
y = 0.065x + 6.818
R² = 0.529
0
4
8
12
Relative year
Bhaluka Well-85
y = 0.365x + 5.636
R² = 0.784
0
4
8
12
16
Nandail
Well-44
y = 0.223x + 4.063
R² = 0.698
0
4
8
12
Nandail Well-48
y = 0.031x + 3.884
R² = 0.039
0
4
8
Nandail
Well-64
y = 0.165x + 4.296
R² = 0.425
0
4
8
12
Bhaluka
Well-60
y = -0.001x + 7.433
R² = 4E-05
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20
0 5 10 15 20
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20 25
Bhaluka
Well-80
Depth
to
WT
(m)
b
0 5 10 15 20 25
}
Fig. 5 (continued)
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16. wells at Isawganj, 2 wells at Bhaluka, 2 wells at Nandial, 2 wells at Fulbaria, 1 well at
Muktagachha, 2 wells at Gafargaon, 2 wells at Haluaghat, 2 wells at Mymensingh Sadar, 1 well
at Gauripur, and 1 well at Trishal Upazila), the depth to WT will approximately double by the
year 2040 compared with the present depth and will double in almost all wells by 2060, if the
present trend continues. Pumping costs will be increased in such a situation, and many
environmental problems may also be created (e.g., groundwater pollution, as indicated by
arsenic contamination).
y =0.038x + 7.545
R² =0.089
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20
Muktagacha Well-30
y =0.029x + 7.382
R² =0.014
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20
Fulbaria Well-59
y =0.931x + 2.952
R² =0.693
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
0 5 10 15 20
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Relative year
Fulbaria Well-23
y =0.48x + 2.799
R² =0.459
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 5 10 15 20
Fulbaria Well-57
y =0.324x + 10.23
R² =0.442
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 5 10 15 20
Muktagacha Well-55
y =0.001x3 - 0.020x2 - 0.168x + 9.534
R² =0.664
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20
Muktagacha Well-58
Relative year
Relative year
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Depth
to
WT
(m)
c
Fig. 5 (continued)
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17. 3.3 General Discussion and Policy Implications
The need and demand for water are a driving force of social, economic and cultural
development through human activity. Future population pressure will create further pressure
on the water resources of Bangladesh. The supply of water resources in Bangladesh during
the dry period consists of surface water, such as river flow and groundwater. Yearly water
availability statistics in Bangladesh (both rainfall and surface flow) can provide a false
y = 0.217x + 4.722
R² = 0.472
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20
Gafargon
Well-29
y = -0.075x + 8.701
R² = 0.096
0
4
8
12
16
0 5 10 15 20
Gafargon Well-62
y = 0.243x + 5.541
R² = 0.627
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20
Gafargon
Well-89
y = 0.288x + 8.831
R² = 0.214
0
4
8
12
16
20
0 5 10 15 20
Haluaghat Well-21
y = 0.075x + 5.727
R² = 0.102
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20
Haluaghat Well-22
y = 0.070x + 6.575
R² = 0.280
0
4
8
12
0 5 10 15 20
Haluaghat Well-50
d
Fig. 5 (continued)
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18. sense of security because water is abundant spatially, however scarce temporally (as shown
in Fig. 2). Over the last 40 years, a considerable amount of groundwater has been pumped
to compensate for the surface water deficit. As the groundwater cannot be renewed
y = 0.284x + 5.420
R² = 0.414
0
4
8
12
16
0 5 10 15 20
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Relative year
Mymensingh Sadar
Well-24
y = 0.538x + 3.687
R² = 0.802
0
4
8
12
16
0 5 10 15 20
Depth
to
WT
(m)
Relative year
Mymensingh Sadar Well-52
y = 0.006x + 11.47
R² = 0.000
0
4
8
12
16
0 5 10 15 20
Trishal Well-25
y = 0.306x + 9.586
R² = 0.369
0
4
8
12
16
0 5 10 15 20
Trishal Well-56
y = 0.010x + 6.205
R² = 0.023
0
2
4
6
8
0 5 10 15 20
Trishal Well-61
y = -0.015x + 4.094
R² = 0.031
0
4
8
0 5 10 15 20
Gouripur
Well-32
y = 0.097x + 4.063
R² = 0.763
0
4
8
0 5 10 15 20
Gouripur Well-46
e
20
Fig. 5 (continued)
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19. Table 2 Position of water-table in the past, at present and simulated scenario for future using MAKESENS
software
Upazila Well No. Water-table (m) in B Q Simulated WT (m) in Signifi-cance
level
1985 2004 2020 2040 2060
Phulpur 01 2.97 3.95 2.75 0.073 5.30 6.76 8.22 **
20 4.97 6.58 5.81 0.062 7.98 9.22 10.46
67 4.16 4.85 4.18 0.065 6.46 7.76 9.06 **
79 5.28 5.47 5.29 0.007 5.54 5.68 5.82
Ishwarganj 08 3.45 4.21 3.47 0.038 4.80 5.56 6.32 **
43 4.55 6.35 4.00 0.103 7.61 9.67 11.73 ***
45 3.96 7.00 4.66 0.171 10.64 14.06 17.48 +
81 4.06 10.18 3.82 0.335 15.55 22.25 28.95 ***
Bhaluka 60 4.55 8.70 4.23 0.157 9.73 12.87 16.01 *
80 7.19 7.65 7.31 0.011 7.70 7.92 8.14
84 5.54 8.70 5.33 0.133 9.99 12.65 15.31 +
85 6.84 8.32 6.83 0.067 9.18 10.52 11.86 ***
Nandail 9 5.66 11.3 4.17 0.387 18.10 25.84 33.58 ***
44 5.23 13.09 6.09 0.358 18.62 25.78 32.94 ***
48 4.18 6.20 4.28 0.193 11.04 14.90 18.76 ***
64 4.42 6.15 3.59 0.036 4.85 5.57 6.29
Fulbaria 23 3.12 20.90 3.40 0.89 34.55 52.35 70.15 ***
57 4.04 9.70 3.02 0.404 17.16 25.24 33.32 ***
59 6.55 8.46 7.15 0.031 8.24 8.86 9.48
Muktagacha 55 3.96 16.97 11.92 0.256 20.88 26.00 31.12 ***
30 7.52 7.84 7.40 0.031 8.49 9.11 9.73
Gafargaon 29 3.34 9.15 5.40 0.179 11.67 15.25 18.83 **
89 8.3 9.15 6.58 0.183 12.98 16.64 20.30 ***
Haluaghat 21 2.71 11.14 10.00 0.263 19.21 24.47 29.73 +
22 4.87 7.00 5.65 0.088 8.73 10.49 12.25 *
50 5.56 6.78 6.49 0.076 9.15 10.67 12.19 *
Mymensingh Sadar 24 6.00 11.99 5.785 0.299 16.25 22.23 28.21 *
52 5.16 13.39 4.96 0.477 21.65 31.19 40.73 ***
Gauripur 32 4.37 3.95 3.844 0.002 3.91 3.954 3.99
46 4.37 5.50 4.138 0.093 7.39 9.25 11.11 ***
Trishal 25 10.72 11.46 11.278 0.009 11.59 11.77 11.95
56 4.57 18.40 10.054 0.288 20.13 25.89 31.65 *
61 6.61 5.76 5.895 0.052 7.71 8.755 9.80 +
In case of cell is blank, the significance level is greater than 0.1
B = Intercept of linear regression equation
Q = Slope of linear regression equation
***
trend is significant at α=0.001
**
trend is significant at α=0.01
*
trend is significant at α=0.05
+
trend is significant at α=0.1
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20. artificially on a large scale, the sustainability of this resource is vital. Simply speaking,
sustainable groundwater utilization means that the extraction from a groundwater reservoir
should not be greater in the long term than the long-term average recharge. Steadily falling
groundwater levels are an indicator of over-pumping or unsustainable withdrawal.
This study reveals that excessive use of groundwater has exceeded the amount of recharge.
The depth to water-table of almost all the wells is declining slowly. In many cases, the depth will
be approximately twice the present value by the year 2040, and almost all cases will be doubled
by 2060, if the present trend is continued. This trend will increase the cost of irrigation water
and thus crop production. With the declining groundwater level, a series of ecological and
environmental catastrophes may develop and become the key factors restricting the socio-
economically sustainable development of the region. Compared with metropolitan areas, the
environmental consequences of such exploitation may become critical slowly in most cases.
This situation may become irreversible if appropriate care is not taken beforehand. Therefore,
necessary measures should be taken to avoid groundwater mining.
Demand-side management of water (e.g., minimizing on-farm water loss, adopting
water-saving irrigation scheduling, soil-water conservation through mulching, rainwater
harvesting in farm ponds), the development of alternative surface water sources (e.g.,
rubber dams, where feasible) and the use of surface water when and where available should
be practiced/enforced to avoid groundwater mining and to promote the sustainable use of
the groundwater resources of the region.
4 Conclusion and Recommendation
Water-table (WT) data of 37 observation wells from 11 different Upazila of the
Mymensingh region for the period 1985 to 2004 were analyzed to quantify long-term
fluctuation patterns and trends. The results reveal that the depth to WT at the beginning and
end of the study period varied with location. However, except for a few discrepancies, the
depth to WT showed a declining trend, and in many places, the WT falls below the lifting
capacity of suction mode pumps.
A long-term prediction using the MEKESENS software was projected assuming the
current rate of groundwater withdrawal. If the present trend of dry season groundwater
pumping is continued, suction mode pumps may not operate at all due to the drastic decline
of the groundwater level. Consequently, pumping costs will increase. Many other
environmental consequences may occur. In many cases, the depth will be approximately
twice that at present by the year 2040 if the present trend is continued. If the decline of the
water-table is allowed to continue in the long run, it can pose a serious ecological threat in
addition to a threat to the sustainability of food production, which is vital for the nation’s
food security. Therefore, measures should be taken to avoid groundwater mining. There is
an urgent need to change the monopoly of rice-rice cropping pattern. Other measures
include demand-side management and the search for feasible surface water sources, thereby
reducing the dependency on groundwater.
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