1. THE REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT OF ZANZIBAR
ASSESSMENT FOR MASIKA 2011/2012 RICE CROP PERFORMANCE
Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources
August 2012

2. i
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Agriculture which is mainly rain-fed constitutes an important economic sector of the Zanzibar
economy in terms of food production, employment generation, and generation of foreign
exchange earnings. The Agricultural Sector accounts for about 32.2 percent of GDP (OCGS,
2011) and the contribution of crops were estimated to be 20.8 percent (Economic Survey,
2009). The main food crops grown include rice, cassava, bananas, sweet potatoes, yams,
legumes (cowpeas, green gram and pigeon peas), fruits and vegetables. Although, rice is the
most preferred staple food, its domestic production accounted for 16 percent of the annual
food requirement in 2011.
In an effort to increase domestic production and consequently decrease dependency on rice
importation and price inflation, the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar introduced a rice
development programme that includes subsidies for mechanisation, quality seeds and
fertilizers for paddy cultivation. During the 2011/2012 Masika season, a total of 31,011
acres1 of rice were planted in Zanzibar under rainfed system of which 13,207 in Unguja and
17,8042 in Pemba. Of these 24,636 acres were tilled by tractors, 6,291 acres were tilled by
hand-hoes, and 84 acres were ox-ploughed. In this particular season, an estimated 70,719
rainfed rice farmers, 24,405 in Unguja and 46,314 in Pemba cultivated rice.
Domestic rice supply has been affected by repeated occurrences of rainfall irregularities and
hence resulting into food shocks in Zanzibar since 2006. The increasing Weather shocks do
pose a great challenge not only to the general agricultural development but also food security
in the isles. Smallholder rainfed farmers in particular are at a high risk of falling into
destitution and chronic food insecurity given the fact that they have been experiencing new
shocks before recovering from previous ones.
On account of the shortfall in rainfall timing and intensity, and uneven distribution during the
2011/2012 long-rainy cropping season, a survey on rice crop performance under rainfed
cultivation was conducted in the Islands of Unguja and Pemba between 28th June to 11th July
2011 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MANR).
The purpose of the survey was to assess the food situation among rainfed rice growers during
the Masika 2011/12 and based on the findings to recommend appropriate actions while the
specific objectives were to i) assess the condition of rainfed rice field performance for Masika
season 2011/12 and ii). project the food situation of rainfed rice farmers.
1
Department of Agriculture, Taarifa ya eka zilizoburugwa, kupandwa na zilizoota Centralka wilaya za Unguja na
Pemba kwa Msimu wa 2011/12.
2
Ibid.

3. ii
The assessment covered all nine rural districts 3 of which five are in Unguja and four in
Pemba. Respondents were randomly selected from a total of 29 rain-fed rice farming valleys,
14 in Unguja and 15 in Pemba. Data collection on rainfall performance and patterns,
condition of food crops in the field and household food availability, the number of rice
farmers and size of areas under rainfed cultivation was conducted with the aid of field
observation visits, household questionnaires and documents review. Statistical Package for
Social Scientists (SPSS) computer software version 16 and Ms Office Excel were used to
analyse the data. Data analysis was primarily centred on understanding the magnitude of the
effects of poor rainfall performance on rice crop performance and production and the extent
of availability of other food crops among rice farming households.
According to the report findings, the net effect of untimely land preparations resulted into
late planting beyond March though there were a few sites, namely Muyuni and Mtende (in
South district) and Mahonda (in North B district) of which soil conditions permitted timely
land preparations and planting.
Overall, results of the survey revealed that over 80 percent of the respondents described rice
crop performance as poor and severely affected by erratic and low rainfall intensity
particularly in the months of April and May. These two months are normally the peak periods
of Masika rains and therefore critical in crop development. This situation posed massive crop
failure, whereby on average across all nine districts, over 76 percent of the planted area was
affected. It was further found out that of the total 31,011 acres planted with rice, 23,743 acres
were affected (equivalent to 77% of the planted area). This may impact negatively on rice
yields and ultimately on the household food basket.
Whereas total annual rice production for the last Masika season 2010/11 was estimated at
22,018 tons harvested from 24,295 acres; the estimated rice production for Masika 2011/2012
was only 8,273 tons, which is equivalent to 38 percent of rice harvested in 2010/2011, thus
making all rice farming households vulnerable to food shortages. Importantly, Production
levels in Pemba (5,093 tons) are higher than in Unguja (3,180 tons). South district performed
exceptionally well in rice yields with estimated average of 2.9 tons/acre due to timely land
preparations, early planting and use of farm inputs (improved seed, fertilizers and herbicides).
The projected number of rice farming households affected by poor rice performance is 64,646
(91 percent of the farmers). With an average household size of 5.5, the rice deficit will
directly affect the food basket of an estimated 355,553 people. Given the low rice production
during the Masika season 2011/2012, rice farmers will definitely not have sufficient reserve
seeds for planting next season. Moreover, household food security of these households will be
more destabilized if the performance of other alternative food crops deteriorates.
The assessment also found that among the alternative crops cassava was the most grown crop
among rice farming households as evidenced by nearly 85 percent of the respondents,
3
Urban district was excluded because it is not involved in rice production.

4. iii
followed by banana (74%) and sweet potatoes (14%). The average land-holding size per
household for cassava, banana and sweet potatoes was 0.82 acres, 1.58 acres and 0.27 acres
respectively. On average cassava had the lowest area affected per household as evidenced by
only 34 percent of the area under cassava production compared to sweet potatoes (40%) and
banana (48%). However, there was geographical disparity in the size of land affected for the
assessed crops with North A district taking lead with more than half of the planted area per
household reportedly affected.
The second other crop cultivated by rice farming households was banana. It evidently
performed worst in Micheweni with 81 percent of cultivated land affected, which was closely
followed by North A (79%) and Central (50%) districts. Sweet potatoes were dominantly
grown in Pemba by the time of the survey. As for Unguja, most of the households were still
preparing their fields for sweet potato production during the time of survey (end of June
2011). Overall, it was observed that banana, cassava and sweet potato were not seriously
affected by the rainfall patterns compared to rice; thus reasonable harvests from other locally
produced crops are expected to compensate the loss in rice crop experienced by the rainfed
rice farmers.
With regard to the anticipated food situation, rice farming households are expected to have
141 kg of paddy per household while the estimated household own production for cassava and
banana was 765 kg and 337 kg respectively. Zanzibar’s per capita annual rice requirements is
estimated at 110 kg4. Whereas the estimated annual household rice requirement5 is 575 kg,
the anticipated rice production for the season 2011/12 is barely 99 kg (milled rice) per
household because of the deficit in household rice harvest. Given the high preference of rice
to other food stuffs, the anticipated food deficit (465 kg) may increase dependency on food
purchase among rice farming households. However, availability of other crops (cassava and
banana) is expected to cushion the extent of food shocks.
Comparing estimated household requirements6 with household expected food production, it is
clear that overall expected production for 2011/2012 (2,078,699Kcal), is below overall food
requirements (3,459,597 Kcal). This suggests that the rainfed rice households are at a risk of
experiencing food shortages. If mitigation measures are not prepared in advance the situation
might degenerate into food insecurity.
Survey report findings on the duration of expected household rice harvests showed that
available rice at the household level is projected to sustain 49 percent of the rice farming
households for less than two months. Only 12 percent of the respondents expected to have
enough rice to sustain them for 3 months while 15 percent will have rice beyond 6 months.
4 Based on calculations extracted from tables of representative valuesof foodscommonly used in tropical countries (Platt,1985);
and withassumptions that household food basketfor Zanzibarconsist of 50% rice.
5 2 009/10 HBS indictaed the Rural household size as 5.31

5. iv
Apparently 24 percent of the rice farming households lost their entire rice crop during the
Masika 2011/2012 cropping season.
A similar trend was observed in the analysis of duration of own total food supply at the
household level. According to the survey results, total food supply from own production will
sustain an average of 45 percent of rice farming households for not more than two months.
Total available food in both the garden and store will on average sustain 36 percent of the
households for only one month! About a quarter of the rice farming households will have food
from own production for six months. Only four percent of the respondents reported to have
enough stocks to sustain them for more than a year. It was evident from the findings that
nearly half of rainfed rice growing households may experience food shortages before the next
harvest which will subsequently compel them to largely depend on food purchases to fulfil
their domestic food requirements. Low purchasing power among the rice farming households
may inevitably restrict them to access adequate food which may again result into severe food
insecurity.
Since the duration of harvest for both Masika and Vuli seasons in Zanzibar is three months for
each farming seasons (WFP et al.; 2010:131), farming households tend to have a stable access
to food for only six months of the year and do purchase it for the gap months. The anticipated
Masika 2011/2012 harvest was projected to sustain households food requirement for two
months (July and August) instead of the three normal months and thereafter affected farmers
would be required to purchase food to cover the food gap (September and December). This
will be a critical time as more resources would be needed to cater for production costs in
preparation for the forthcoming Vuli and Masika seasons, and other essential household
expenditures. The next expected harvest is between January and March 2013, but this will
only depend on the performance of rains in the proceeding Vuli season.
Based on the assessment, the following recommendations were made:
a) Provide rice seeds and other short-term varieties of planting materials of food crops such
as sorghum, cowpeas and maize may also be considered to affected rainfed farmers. Since
rice farmers won’t have sufficient reserve seed for planting next season owing to the
extremely low harvests, timely provision of high yielding rice seeds coupled with
fertilisers and herbicides to farmers in recommended rates is necessary. Considering a
total of 31,011 acres planted under the rainfed farming system last season, an estimated
930 tons of rice seed is required for next 2012/13 cropping season though the MANR has
allocated funds for procurement of only 570 tons 7 of quality rice seeds covering both
rainfed and irrigated farming systems. Seeds of rice varieties that performed well in the
previous long-rainy season should be procured as soon as possible from reliable suppliers.
7 MANR Budget speech – 2012/2013;page 25.

6. v
b) Improve timely availability of subsidized mechanized tractor service delivery to fit with
the rice crop cultivation activity calendar.
c) Expedite special and targeted public assistance programs including providing relief food,
food for work and cash for food schemes to prevent deterioration of the nutritional status
of most vulnerable groups. However, a thorough investigation is urgently needed to
identify the most vulnerable households who qualify to access the food relief.
d) There is an urgent need for Government to put more efforts in the improvement and
expansion of irrigation and water harvesting infrastructures.

7. vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................ i
1.0 INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................1
1.2 Background...................................................................................................................1
1.3: Objectives of the assessment ........................................................................................3
2.0 METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................... 4
2.1: Survey coordination.....................................................................................................4
2.2: Study area and sampling procedures..............................................................................4
2.3: Data collection ............................................................................................................5
2.4: Data analysis ...............................................................................................................5
3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ................................................................................ 6
3.1: Land preparation and planting: .....................................................................................6
3.2: Field rice crop performance..........................................................................................6
3.3: Estimated rice production.............................................................................................8
3.4: Affected rice farming households .................................................................................9
3.5: Field performance of other food crops...........................................................................9
3.6: Anticipated food situation for rice farming households.................................................11
3.6.1: Household food availability....................................................................................................................11
3.6.2: Duration of household rice harvests and total food supply ...............................................................12
3.6.3: Time in which the affected households might face serious food shortages ...................................14
4.0 RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................... 15

8. vii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Distribution of Masika rainfall compared to expected normal levels ..............................2
Table 2: Number of sampled rain-fed rice valleys .....................................................................4
Table 3: Rice cultivation activity calendar in 2011/2012 cropping season comparing to normal year
..............................................................................................................................................6
Table 4: Average area of rice planted and proportion of area affected per household among surveyed
rice growing households in nine districts. .................................................................................7
Table 5: Projected proportion of area under rice cultivation affected in 2011/2012 Masika cropping
season....................................................................................................................................7
Table 6: Estimated number of affected rice growing farmers/households ...................................9
Table 7: Average areas of other crops planted and proportion of area affected among surveyed
households ...........................................................................................................................10
Table 8: Expected amount of food to be available per household from own production for surveyed
rice farming households during Masika 2011/2012..................................................................11
Table 9: Household food production and deficit in Kcaland Metric tonnes for surveyed households
2012.....................................................................................................................................12
Table 10: Household duration of rice harvests........................................................................13
Table 11: Percent households per duration of total household food supply ...............................13
Table 12: Comparison of harvest duration for masika cropping season between normal and expected
harvest in 2012 and activity calendar......................................................................................14
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Comparison of projected rice production levels for current year (2011/2012) with the normal
year (2010/2011).....................................................................................................................8
LIST OF ANNEXES
Annex 1: Questionnaire for rapid assessment of Rice harvest situation for 2011/2012 ‘Masika’ Season
............................................................................................................................................16
Annex 2: Annual food requirements and food deficit ..............................................................19

9. 1
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
This report is a product of the assessment on rice crop performance under rainfed
cultivation that was conducted in the isles of Unguja and Pemba between 28th June to
11th July 2011. It was called for, following a critical shortage and uneven distribution of
masika rains of the 2011/2012 cropping season. The purpose of the assessment was to
provide an update on the rice crop performance, and based on the findings to recommend
appropriate actions. The Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MANR) fielded
an assessment team to undertake the assessment.
1.2 Background
Agriculture in Zanzibar is dominated by rain-fed crop production and the main food crops
grown include rice, cassava, bananas, sweet potatoes, yams, legumes (cowpeas, green
gram and pigeon peas), fruits and vegetables. Cereals such as maize, millet and sorghum
are also grown to a lesser extent. Rice is the most preferred staple food in Zanzibar.
However, the isles have been consistently failing to meet its local demands therefore rice
importation has remained a significant determinant of rice availability in the Isles.
Domestic rice production is estimated to be only 16% of annual requirement.
In an effort to increase domestic production and consequently decrease dependency on
rice importation and inflation, the Revolutionary Government of Zanzibar has introduced
the Rice Inputs Subsidy Programme that includes subsidy for mechanisation, quality
seeds and fertilizers for paddy cultivation. This initiative is expected to avail smallholder
farmers with access to technologies to expand utilised land area and production
intensification and as such boost domestic rice production and in the long-run slow down
the country’s high dependence on rice imports, hunger, malnutrition and poverty.
During the Masika season 2011/2012, a total of 31,011 acres8 of rice were planted in
Zanzibar under rainfed system of which 13,207 in Unguja and 17,804 in Pemba. Of these
24,636 acres were tilled by tractors, 6,291 acres were tilled by hand-hoes, and 84 acres
were ox-ploughed. An estimated 70,719 farmers (24,405 in Unguja and 46,314 in
Pemba) cultivated rice under rainfed farming system in this particular season.
Zanzibar cropping calendar is characterised with bimodal nature of rainfall and two
cropping seasons are experienced. The islands normally experience the Masika season in
mid-March to the end of June followed by a cool period (Kipupwe season) from June
through the start of Vuli season in October. Cultivation of rice crop under rainfed
8
Department of Agriculture, Taarifa yaeka zilizoburugwa, kupandwa na zilizoota Centralka wilaya za Unguja na Pemba kwa Msimu
wa 2011/12.

10. 2
conditions follows the cropping calendar of which land preparation activities (comprising
of land tilling and harrowing) start from September to January. Traditionally rainfed rice
cultivation is in line with the long-rains onset (Masika), which normally start in March to
June. However, the 2011/12 Masika rains were far below expectations in terms of
timing, intensity and distribution.
The rainfall onset of the 2011/12 Masika season started normally in March 2012 with
total rainfall recorded at 84% of the normal. This trend however continued to decrease in
the subsequent months of April and May (below 50% of the expected normal amount)
which is not only the peak period of Masika, but also the critical period in paddy crop
development. The received rains were erratic and unevenly distributed, and as
highlighted in Table 1 the cumulative amount recorded for the three months of March –
May were basically half of the normal levels. The dry spell within these periods led to
massive crop failure as the crop at this particular time was still germinating and other
varieties were at the tillering stage.
Table 1: Distribution of Masika rainfall compared to expected normal levels
Description Months/ rainfall in mm Total rainfall in mm
March April May
Rainfall in 2012 (mm) 150.5 178.4 115.5 444.4
Long term average rainfall (mm) 178.6 414.8 275.0 868.4
Comparison to average rainfall (%) 84 43 42 51
Source: TanzaniaMetrologyAuthority(TMA) June2012
Frequency of rainfall irregularities has been observed in Zanzibar since 2006. The
repeatedly weather shocks which are apparently increasing in frequency and severity do
pose a great challenge to agricultural development in the isles. In addition, the shocks
increase the risk of smallholder farmers falling into destitution and chronic food
insecurity given the fact that they have been experiencing new shocks before recovering
from the previous ones. Furthermore, it is understood that Zanzibar is least prepared to
mitigate and adapt to negative effects of climate change. Major effects that Zanzibar has
witnessed as a result of rainfall irregularities include:
Agricultural Season Nature of occurrence and major effects
2005/2006  Prolonged dry spell during short-rainy ‘Vuli’ season: the spell destroyed food
crops and fruits; delayed land preparation and farmers did not plant on time; water
supply from tap and wells was impaired compelling affected households to turn to
unsafe water sources.
2009/2010  Late onset and early cessation of the Vuli season: affected crop production and
reduced the contribution of Vuli season to food production by 10 percent at 41 per
cent of from the normal contribution of 51 per cent.
2010/2011  Late onset of the Vuli season: affected crop production and reduced the
contribution of Vuli season to food production.

11. 3
2011/2012  Prolonged Vuli season: affected agricultural activities especially land preparation
for Masikaseason
 Poor performance of long-rainy ‘Masika’ rainfall
1.3: Objectives of the assessment
The overall objective of the study is to assess the food situation among the rainfed rice
growers during the Masika 2011/12.
The specific objectives were to:
i. Assess the condition of rainfed rice field performance for Masika season 2011/12;
ii. Project the food situation of rainfed rice farmers.

12. 4
2.0 METHODOLOGY
2.1: Survey coordination
The assessment was managed and undertaken by a team of technical staff from the
Department of Food Security and Nutrition and the Department of Agriculture, under the
Ministry of Agriculture and Natural Resources (MANR). The assessment team
constituted of 22 members, 13 in Unguja and 9 in Pemba. The members were from
different technical expertise including planning, food security analysis, crop production,
and extension services.
2.2: Study area and sampling procedures
The assessment covered all nine rural districts9 of which five are in Unguja and four in
Pemba. Respondents were randomly selected from a total of 29 rice growing valleys, 14
from Unguja and 15 from Pemba. The survey adopted a sample size of 395 smallholder
farmers engaged in rice farming in the participating shehia in nine rural districts. The
sample selection was based on statistical tables referred from Sarantakos10, where a
sample size of 384 may be used to represent a population of over one million at a 95%
confidence interval with a Margin of Error of about ±4.4%.
Table 2: Number of sampled rain-fed rice valleys
Location Districts
Total No. of
rice farmers
Total No.
of valleys
No. of
sampled
valleys
Number of sampled
farmers
UNGUJA North A 6,331 5 2 25
North B 9,337 6 3 54
Central 5,244 22 5 58
South 263 2 2 16
West 3,230 25 2 9
Total Unguja 24,405 60 14 162
PEMBA Micheweni 9,985 132 3 48
Mkoani 13,817 76 3 47
Wete 11,160 88 6 83
Chakechake 11,352 145 3 55
Total Pemba 46,314 441 15 233
Grand Total 70,719 501 29 395
9 Urban district was excludedbecause it is not involvedin rice production.
10
Sarantakos S(1993)– Social Research; pp 124-147.

13. 5
2.3: Data collection
Field visits: A reconnaissance survey was conducted in major rice growing valleys to
capture the effect of poor rainfall performance on the rice growth condition. This exercise
comprised of a one day rice field observation on Thursday 28th June 2012 conducted in
12 sampled rice growing valleys in Unguja where video clips and photographs showing
the condition of rice growth performance were also taken.
Household questionnaire: A questionnaire was designed to collect detailed data on
rainfall performance, condition of food crops in the field and household food availability.
The questionnaire was pre-tested and the study team was re-oriented for one day.
Documents review: Secondary data on rainfall patterns, the number of rice farmers, areas
under rainfed cultivation were reviewed.
2.4: Data analysis
Statistical Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) computer software version 16 and Ms
Office Excel were used to analyse the data. Data analysis was primarily centred on
understanding the magnitude of the effects of poor rainfall performance on rice crop
performance and production and the extent of availability of other food crops among rice
farming households.

14. 6
3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
3.1: Land preparation and planting:
Normally rainfed rice cropping calendar begins with land preparation in September to
January; and planting occurs thereafter to mid-March depending on the varieties
(long, mid and short-term) to be planted. Long-term rice varieties are planted during
late December to late January, whereas mid-term and short-term varieties are planted
in late January and mid-February respectively. An activity calendar that compares the
2011/12 cropping season with the normal season is presented in Table 3. As depicted
in the calendar, and based on the information from the respondents there were
significant delays in land preparations (ploughing/harrowing) following the prolonged
Vuli rains (up to January) that hindered timely delivery of tractor mechanization
services due to excessive soil moisture. The net effect of untimely land preparations
resulted into late planting beyond March. However, there were a few sites, namely
Muyuni and Mtende (in South district) and Mahonda (in North B district) of which
soil conditions permitted timely land preparations and planting.
Table 3: Rice cultivation activity calendar in 2011/2012cropping season comparing tonormal year
Cropping
season
Parameters Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug
Normal
Season
Vuli Rains Dry Masika Rains (MR)
Dry/erratic
rains
2011/2012 Vuli Rains
Dry
MR Dry MR Dry Dry/erratic rains
Normal
Agric
activities
Land preparation (ploughing
and harrowing)- LP
Planting PL Crop development Harvest
2011/2012
Land
preparation
PL LP PL Crop development Harvest
3.2: Field rice crop performance
Overall, results of the survey revealed that over 80 percent of the respondents described
rice crop performance as poor and severely affected by erratic and low rainfall intensity
particularly in the months of April and May. These two months are normally the peak
periods of Masika rains and therefore critical in crop development. In areas like Central
and Micheweni districts, rice fields that were planted in late March to early April
appeared to be stunted with poorly formed panicles and empty grains. This situation
posed massive crop failure, whereby on average across all nine districts, over 76 percent
of the planted area was affected, as indicated in Table 4. The households in the four

15. 7
districts of West, Central, Micheweni and Wete were the most affected. However, in the
areas where land preparation and planting operations were timely performed, the growth
condition of rice crop was good. This was the case in South district (Mtende and
Muyuni), and North B (Mahonda).
Table 4: Average area of rice plantedand proportion of area affectedper householdamong surveyedrice
growing households in nine districts.
Island District Rice field
Average area
planted per household
(acres)
Average Area
Affected per
household(acres)
Proportion of area
affected (%)
Unguja North A 1.05 0.8 76.2
North B 1.5 1.13 75.3
Central 2.2 1.92 87.3
South 0.67 0.21 31.3
West 1.09 1.01 92.7
Sub-total - Unguja 1.3 1.01 77.7
Pemba Micheweni 0.96 0.79 82.3
Mkoani 1.42 0.93 65.5
Wete 1.26 1.03 81.7
Chakechake 1.34 0.98 73.1
Sub-total - Pemba 1.25 0.93 74.4
Total Zanzibar 1.28 0.98 76.6
The results above provide a basis for projecting total acreage under rain-fed rice
cultivation. The data in Table 5 indicate that out of 31,011 acres planted with rice, 23,743
acres were affected (equivalent to 77% of the planted area). This may impact negatively
on rice yields and ultimately on the household food basket.
Table 5: Projected proportion of area under rice cultivation affected in 2011/2012 Masika cropping season
Location District Planted area (acres)
Affected area
acres %
Unguja North A 2,643 2,014 76
North B 6,238 4,699 75
Central 2,729 2,381 87
South 192 60 31
West 1,407 1,303 93
Sub-total - Unguja 13,208 10,261 78
Pemba Micheweni 4,543 3,739 82
Mkoani 4,042 2,647 65
Wete 5,387 4,404 82
Chakechake 3,832 2,803 73
Sub-total - Pemba 17,804 13,246 74

16. 8
Total Zanzibar 31,011 23,743 77
3.3: Estimated rice production
Rice production levels per district were projected based on the average household
production estimates from the field findings. The results were then compared with
production levels of the normal year (2010/11) to capture the variations (Figure 1).
Overall, average rice yields dropped significantly from 0.71 tons/acre in 2010/2011 to
0.27 tons/acre in 2011/20112. The total annual rice production for the last Masika season
2010/11 was 22,018 tons harvested from 24,295 acres; whereas the estimated rice
production for Masika 2011/2012 is 8,273 tons, which is equivalent to 38 percent of rice
harvested in 2010/2011. Production levels in Pemba (5,093 tons) are higher than in
Unguja (3,180 tons).
Figure 1: Comparison of projected rice production levels forcurrent year(2011/2012) with the normal year
(2010/2011)
It is worth to note that South district performed exceptionally in rice yields with
estimated average of 2.9 tons/acre. Relatively, its rice production for this season is
estimated at 547 tons as compared to 136 tons harvested in 2010/2011. This good
performance is attributed by timely land preparations, early planting and use of farm
inputs (improved seed, fertilizers and herbicides).
North A North B Central South West
Michew
eni
Mkoani Wete
Chake
Chake
Normal year
(2010/11)
1,877 4,429 1,937 136 999 3,226 2,869 3,825 2,721
Estimates for
2011/12
1,134 635 82 547 782 459 2,107 1,590 937
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Riceproduction(tons)

17. 9
3.4: Affected rice farming households
The projected number of rice farming households affected by poor rice performance is
64,646 (91 percent of the farmers) – Table 6 As indicated above, the estimated rice
production for Masika 2011/2012 was only 38 percent of rice harvested in 2010/2011,
thus making all rice farming households vulnerable to food shortages. With an average
household size of 5.5 this deficit will directly affect the food basket of estimated 355,553
people. It is further questionable if farmers will manage to keep seed for the oncoming
season. Moreover, household food security of these households will be more destabilized
if the performance of other alternative food crops deteriorate. Under such circumstances,
the rice farming households will be in need of assistance to enable them reach the next
harvest of Vuli 2012/2013 and thus prevent a further deterioration of their food situation.
Table 6: Estimated number of affectedrice growing farmers/households
Island District Total number of rice
growing farmers
Estimated number of
farmers affected
Unguja North A 6,331 5,677
North B 9,337 8,256
Central 5,244 5,070
South 263 57
West 3,230 3,127
Sub-total – Unguja 24,405 22,186
Pemba Micheweni 9,985 8,897
Mkoani 13,817 12,792
Wete 11,160 10,219
Chake Chake 11,352 10,551
Sub-total – Pemba 46,314 42,460
Total Zanzibar 70,719 64,646
3.5: Field performance of other food crops
Household access to other locally produced food crops (cassava, bananas and sweet
potato) and their related field performance were assessed on account of failure of rice
crop production during the Masika 2011/2012 cropping season for rice farming
households (Table 7). The assessment found that cassava was the most grown crop
among rice farming households as evidenced by nearly 85 percent of the respondents,
followed by banana (74%) and sweet potatoes (14%).

18. 10
Table 7: Average areas of othercrops planted and proportion of area affected among surveyed households
The average land-holding size per household for cassava, banana and sweet potatoes was
0.82 acres, 1.58 acres and 0.27 acres respectively.
On average cassava had the lowest area affected per household as evidenced by only 34
percent of the area under cassava production compared to sweet potatoes (40%) and
banana (48%). However, there was geographical disparity in the size of land affected for
the assessed crops. As for cassava, North A district was in the lead with more than half of
the planted area per household reportedly affected. Other districts with poor performing
cassava fields were Chake Chake and Micheweni with proportion of land affected was 45
percent and 43 percent of cultivated area respectively. The least affected district was
West with only 11 percent of planted area performing poorly.
The second other crop cultivated by rice farming households was banana. It evidently
performed worst in Micheweni with 81 percent of cultivated land affected, which was
closely followed by North A (79%) and Central (50%) districts.
Sweet potatoes were dominantly grown in Pemba by the time of the survey. Both Chake
Chake and Micheweni districts had the highest proportion of land under sweet potato
cultivation affected with 60 percent and 50 percent respectively. As for Unguja, most of
the households were still preparing their fields for sweet potato production during the
time of survey (end of June 2011).
Overall, it was observed that banana, cassava and sweet potato were not seriously
affected by the rainfall patterns compared to rice; thus reasonable harvests from other
District Cassava Banana Sweet potato
Average
Area
planted
(acres)
Average
area
affected
(acres)
Area
affected
(%)
Average
Area
planted
(acres)
Average
area
affected
(acres)
Area
affected
(%)
Average
Area
planted
Average
area
affected
(acres)
Area
affected
(%)
North A 0.6 0.38 63.3 0.63 0.5 79.4 - - -
North B 0.57 0.13 22.8 3.92 0.08 2.0 - - -
Central 0.3 0.08 26.7 0.22 0.11 50.0 0.05 0.03 60.0
South 0.4 0.15 37.5 0.67 - - - - -
West 0.56 0.06 10.7 0.15 - - - - -
Average for Unguja 0.48 0.16 33.3 1.09 0.14 12.8 0.01 0.01 100.0
Micheweni 1.26 0.54 42.9 5.88 4.78 81.3 1.08 0.54 50.0
Mkoani 1.55 0.45 29.0 0.85 0.27 31.8 0.34 0.09 26.5
Wete 1.05 0.25 23.8 0.6 0.24 40.0 0.63 0.19 30.2
Chake Chake 0.78 0.35 44.9 0.94 0.17 18.1 0.05 0.03 60.0
Average for Pemba 1.16 0.4 34.5 2.07 1.37 66.2 0.52 0.21 40.4
Average for Zanzibar 0.82 0.28 34.1 1.58 0.75 47.5 0.27 0.11 40.7

19. 11
locally produced crops are expected to compensate the loss in rice crop experienced by
the rainfed rice farmers.
3.6: Anticipated food situation for rice farming households
3.6.1: Household food availability
As established from previous sub-sections, the main crops available at household level
during survey period were rice, cassava, banana and sweet potato. An analysis was
conducted to estimate the amount of food to be harvested per rice growing household as
shown in Table 8. In comparison to other cultivated food crops, rice which is the most
preferred food in Zanzibar, recorded an extremely low production at the household level.
On average, the estimated amount of rice to be harvested per household was 141 kg only,
while the estimated household production for cassava and banana was 765 kg and 337 kg
respectively.
Table 8: Expected amount of food to be available per householdfrom own production for surveyed rice farming
households during Masika 2011/2012
Zanzibar’s per capita annual rice requirements is estimated at 110 kg11. Whereas the
estimated annual household requirements12 is 575 kg, the anticipated rice production for
the season 2011/12 is hardly 99 kg per household; a situation which points to the
household rice deficit among rice growing households. Given the high preference of rice
11 Based on calculations extracted from tables of representative values of foods commonly used in tropical
countries (Platt,1985); and with assumptions thathousehold food basket for Zanzibar consistof 50% rice.
12 Rural household sizeis 5.31
District
Expected total production per household in kg
Milled rice Cassava Banana
North A 87 672 457
North B 85 976 377
Central 85 800 467
South 218 584 729
West 119 1,200 257
Average Unguja 118 846 457
Micheweni 32 280 67
Mkoani 107 1,096 235
Wete 100 704 199
Chake Chake 58 576 242
Average Pemba 74 664 186
Average Zanzibar 99 765 337

20. 12
to other food stuffs, the anticipated food deficit (465 kg) may increase dependency on
food purchase among rice farming households. However, availability of other crops
(cassava and banana) is expected to lessen the extent of food shocks.
In order to determine whether household food supply meets the household demand,
household nutritional requirements13 were estimated (Table 9)14.
Table 9: Householdfood production and deficit in Kcal and Metric tonnes for surveyed households 2012
Food item Household
Production in
(kg)
Food energy
value (FEV) in
Kcal **
Household
Production in
Kcal
Household
requirement
(Kcal/year) ***
Household food
deficit/surplus
(Kg)
Rice 141 3540 499,494 2,035,058 -434
Cassava 765 1530 1,170,909 1,017,529 100
Other staples* 337 1213 408,296 407,012 1
Total 1,243 6,283 2,078,699 3,459,598 -333
* Includes banana
** Extracted from tables of representatives values of foods commonly used in tropical countries (Platt, 1985)
*** Calculations based on the assumption of thecontribution of each food to total calories intake: rice 50%,
Cassava 25%, other staples 10%, maize 5% and fish 10%, however maize and fish did not included in the
estimation
Comparing estimated household requirements with household expected food production,
it is clear that overall expected production for 2011/2012 (2,078,699Kcal), is below
overall food requirements (3,459,597 Kcal). This suggests that the rainfed rice
households are at a risk of experiencing food shortages. If mitigation measures are not
prepared in advance the situation might degenerate into food insecurity. The duration of
expected harvest among the rice farming households was therefore examined to
determine the extent to which own food supply will suffice household food needs.
3.6.2: Duration of household rice harvests and total food supply
Table 10 shows the duration of expected rice harvest. Apparently 24 percent of the rice
farming households have lost all of their rice crop during the Masika 2011/2012 cropping
season. In addition, 49 percent of the rice farming households responded that harvested
rice would sustain them for less than two months. Only 12 percent of the respondents
expected to have enough rice to sustain them for 3 months. Mkoani, Micheweni, North
13 Nutritional requirements of a household refer to the quantity of energy (Kcal), expressed on a daily basis that is
necessary for people, when in good health, to develop and lead a normal life. Requirements vary according to age, sex,
body weight, level of activity and physiological status (for example, pregnancy and lactation). Here they are expressed
in the form of averages, did not taking into account individual variation.
14
This table provides a very rough estimate of the dimension of demand and supply of major staple foods in
household. Details of the calculation are given in annex II.

21. 13
A, and Chake Chake districts had majority households with a rice harvest duration of two
months.
Table 10: Householdduration of rice harvests
District Household percent per duration of rice harvests
Zero months Up to 2
Months
3 Months ≥ 6 Months ≥ 1year
Chakechake 33 53 11 4 -
North A 31 63 - 6 -
North B 38 32 12 18 -
Central 30 34 23 13 -
South - 8 31 46 15
West 33 44 11 11 -
Micheweni 23 70 6 - -
Mkoani - 75 9 16 -
Wete 21 60 8 7 4
Average 24 49 12 13 2
A similar trend was observed in the analysis of duration of harvest for all food crops at
the household level. As revealed by the results in Table 11, on average 45 percent of
respondents estimate that the expected harvest would not last for more than two months.
Only four percent of the respondents reported to have enough stocks to sustain them for
more than a year.
Table 11: Percent households perduration of total householdfood supply
Food purchases together with own production are critical factors that contribute to food
District Percent per duration of total household food supply
≤2 Months 3 Months ≥ 6 Months ≥ 1year
Chake Chake 58 26 11 4
North A 62 14 24 -
North B 35 37 27 2
Central 37 33 26 5
South 19 19 44 19
West 33 44 22 -
Micheweni 52 28 20 -
Mkoani 56 19 26 -
Wete 49 23 14 14
Average 45 27 24 4

22. 14
availability for rural household. In view of the results presented in Table 11, it is evident
that nearly half of rainfed rice growing households may experience food shortages before
the next harvest. Consequently, food shortages will compel rice farmers to largely depend
on food purchases to fulfil their domestic food requirements. This fact suggests that food
shortages would inevitably restrict access to adequate food for rainfed rice farmers and
the situation might turn into serious food insecurity if prices of staple food increase.
3.6.3: Time in which the affected households might face serious food shortages
Table 12 presents a comparison of harvest duration for normal Masika cropping season
with the expected harvest in 2012. The comparison is based on the findings of
Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis15 (CFSVA), and is conducted
to establish time in which the affected households might face serious food shortages. The
CFSVA established the duration of harvest for both Masika and Vuli seasons as three
months for each farming seasons. Therefore, farming households tend to have a stable
access to food in six months of the year and have to purchase food for the gap months.
Table 12: Comparison of harvest duration for masika cropping season between normal and expected harvest in
2012 and activity calendar
Parameters Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Duration ofharvest
in normal cropping
season
Masika Harvest
Expected duration of
harvest 2012
Masika
Harvest
Expected food Shortage
Next expected harvest
2013
Expected Vuli harvest
Farm related
activities
LP
Planting for
Masika
season
Crop development
Masika
Harvest
Planting
for Vuli
season
Land preparation
for Masikaseason
(LP)
As illustrated further in Table12, the anticipated Masika 2011/2012 harvest was projected
to sustain households food requirement for two months only (July and August) and
thereafter farmers would be required to purchase food to cover food gap (September and
December). This will be a critical time as more resources would be needed to cater for
production costs in preparation for the forthcoming Vuli and Masika seasons, and other
essential households expenditures.
Next expected harvest is between January and March 2013, but this will only depend on
the performance of rains in the proceeding Vuli season. More importantly, if there will
be any problem with the next harvest, these households will be highly vulnerable to food
insecurity for the rest of the year.
15 WFP, et al. Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis 2009/2010;

23. 15
4.0 RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the assessment, the following recommendations were made:
i. Provide rice seeds and other short-term planting materials to affected rainfed farmers.
Since rice farmers won’t have sufficient reserve seed for planting next season owing
to the extremely low harvests, timely provision of high yielding rice seeds coupled
with fertilisers and herbicides to farmers in recommended rates is necessary.
Considering a total of 31,011 acres planted under the rainfed farming system last
season, an estimated 930 tons of rice seed is required for next 2012/13 cropping
season though the MANR has allocated funds for procurement of only 570 tons16 of
quality rice seeds covering both rainfed and irrigated farming systems. Seeds of rice
varieties that performed well in the previous long-rainy season should be procured as
soon as possible from reliable suppliers.
ii. Provide short-term varieties of planting materials of other food crops such as
sorghum, cowpeas and maize may also be considered.
iii. Improve timely availability of subsidized mechanized tractor service delivery to fit
with the rice crop cultivation activity calendar.
iv. Expedite special and targeted public assistance programs including providing relief
food, food for work and cash for food schemes to prevent deterioration of the
nutritional status of most vulnerable groups. However, a thorough investigation is
urgently needed to identify the most vulnerable households who qualify to access the
food relief.
v. There is also urgent need for Government to put more efforts in the improvement and
expansion of irrigation and water harvesting infrastructures.
16 MANR Budget speech – 2012/2013;page 25.

24. 16
Annex 1: Questionnaire for rapid assessment of Rice harvest situation for 2011/2012 ‘Masika’ Season
A: Personal details:
1) Name of household respondent………………………… Age…… Shehia …………. Tel.No.….
2) What is the number of household members?
Age group (years) Female Male Total
0-5
6-17
>18 /Adults
Total
B: Rainfall performance
3) Describe is the Normal and Actual period in terms of months and week you received the rainfall
during this Masika season
Actual(Current season) Normal
a). On set ( Beginning
of rainfall)
b) End of Rainfall a). On set ( Beginning of
rainfall)
b) End of
Rainfall
Month Month Month Month
Week Week Week Week
4) Was the Rainfall amount?: Tick the appropriate box
Normal Above Normal Below Normal
5) Was the rainfall distribution (Area coverage) : Tick the appropriate box
Good Bad Below Normal
6) What percentage of this Masika season crop production will contribute to the total food supply in
the district? ………………………………………………………..
C: Food crop performance
7) Describe the current growth condition of five (5) major food crops you have in the garden
Food crop Above normal Normal Below Normal Reason if below normal
Rice
Cassava
Bananas
Survey objectives:
a) To generate information for forecasting the state of food situation in Zanzibar
b) To establish the proportion of farmers affected by the untimely and poor distribution
of Masika season rains
c) To identify alternative coping strategies by farmers who will experience crop failure

25. 17
Sweet potatoes
Yams
Coco yams
Pigeon peas
8) Which two major crops were significantly affected by the poor and untimely rainfall?
………………………………………………………………………………………………
9) Of the total area planted (for the above mentioned crops), what proportion has completely failed
or is performing poorly?
Crop Area planted Area growing poorly
10) If there is no more rain, will the condition of the major crops you grow remain normal? Tick
appropriate option. Yes No
D: Food availability:
11) For each of the crops you planted during last and current crop season, state:
Crop Last crop season Current crop season
Area
planted
Amount
harvested
Amount
stored
Amount in
the garden
Amount
sold
Area
planted
Expected
yield
Rice
Cassava
Bananas
Sweet potatoes
Yams
Cocoyams
Pigeon peas
12) For how long will the available food (stored and also in the garden) sustain the family?
1 month Before next harvest 3 Months 6 months ≥ 1 year
13) If you received tractor services, were they timely ?YesNo
14) State the total number of farmers who:( To be completed by BEOs, DADOs and DA)
Accessed tractor services Are currently irrigating their
farms per district
Size of land being irrigated

26. 18
E: Food Utilization
15) On average, how many meals do you have per day/normally?
Yesterday Normally State reasons if different from normal
1 2 3 and more 1 2 3 and more
F: Household food Access
16) What are your five normal sources of income?
……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
G: Coping strategies:
17) If you experience poor harvests (insufficient amount to last until next harvesting season), how do
you plan to cope with the deficit?
Coping source Tick option mentioned
a) Seek casual labour for cash
b) Sell livestock
c) Sell other valuable household items
d) Borrow food
e) Expecting gifts from social networks
f) Begging
g) Other (Specify)……………
Administered/Completed by:…………………………………………………………
Designation/Title:………………………………………………………………..
Date:………………………………………………………………….

27. 19
Annex 2: Annual food requirements andfood deficit
A B C D E F G H
Food item Household
Production in
(kg)
Food energy
value (FEV) in
Kcal/kg **
Household
Production in
Kcal
Assumption of
basic food
basket***
Contribution to Daily
Calories Requirements
per food per year
Household annual
Kcal requirement
Household
annual food
Requirement in
(Kg)
Household food
deficit/surplus in
Kg
Rice 141.1 3540 499,494 50% 1050 2,035,057.5 575 -434
Cassava 765.3 1530 1,170,909 25% 525 1,017,528.75 665 100
banana 336 1213 408,295.8 10% 210 407,011.5 336 0
Maize - - - 5% - - -
Fish - - - 10% - - -
TOTAL 1,242 2,078,699 100 3,459,597.75 -334
** Extracted from tables of representatives values of foods commonly used in tropical countries (Platt, 1985)
*** Consumption of maize and fish did not considered in this estimation
A: householdproductiondata estimatedfrom survey results
B: Foodenergy value (FEV) in Kcal Extractedfromtables of representatives values of foods commonly usedin tropical countries (Platt, 1985)
C: (A x B)
D: Assumption basedon experience ofthe Ministrystaff
E: (B x D)
F: (E x 365 x no.of people in rural household5.31 )
G: F /B
H: A – G