Summary COVID variances continue to evolve Global GDP growth is facing many challenges High household debt default is at risk due to potential hiking of interest rates More and more people are looking at their health and wellness Too much focus is being put on climate change

1. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS – VIRUSES
MANAGEMENT – WORLD HEALTH
ORGANIZATION AND WORLD
GOVERNMENTS
Paul Young CPA CGA
April 2, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
CPA, CGA (1996)
Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
SME – Customer Success Management
SME – Risk Management
SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
SME – Public Policy
SME – Emerging Technology
SME – Business Process Change
SME – Financial Solutions
SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
SME – Supply Chain Management
SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
SME – Internal Controls and Auditing

3. AGENDA
• Inflation
• Stock Market
• Wealth
• Cases
• Deaths
• Vaccinations by country
• Vaccinations / Delivery
• Vaccines / Approval
• Vaccinations / Procurement
• Employment – January 2021 (USA vs Canada)
• Unemployment (Canada vs OECD and G7)
• Stock Market
• Global GDP / Forecast
• Blog – Crisis Management
• Blog – New Normal
• Blog – Supply Chain
• Summary
• Training/Development

4. TOP GEOPOLITICAL THREATS
Source - https://www.ey.com/en_jo/geostrategy/when-political-disruption-surrounds-you-whats-your-next-strategic-
move
1. A two-tiered world
2. Evolving great power relationships
3. Middle powers on the global stage
4. Rise of cyber piracy
5. Climate change political nexus
6. Green mineral nationalism
7. Increase intervention supply chain
8. Technology nationalization
9. Expansion of the Brussels effect
10. Inequality and push for redistribution

5. PRESENTATION TITLE 5
Summary:
U.S. stocks closed higher Friday to cap a choppy first trading day of April as investors saw a closely-watched recession indicator in the
bond market briefly flash red and mulled strong labor market data out of Washington that reaffirmed expectations for more hawkish
monetary tightening plans by the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 rebounded into the close to rise 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 150 points after both benchmarks
struggled for direction during intraday trading. The Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3% higher, to mark a third week of gains for the tech-
heavy index and the S&P 500. Friday's moves come after Wall Street capped its worst quarter since the start of 2020.
A key part of the part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverted Friday morning. The spread, or difference, between the 2-year
and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed and inflected for the third time this week. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a
recession, with each of the last eight recessions dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion. On Friday, the yield on the 10-
year U.S. Treasury bond ended the day at 2.38%, 6 basis points below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.44%.
Source - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-1-2022-221535663.html and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-the-stock-market-april-2-2022ppt
1. Commodities - https://ca.investing.com/analysis/commodity-prices-benefit-from-weakening-link-to-us-dollar-200505008
2. South Korea - https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/04/01/south-korea-surpasses-japan-in-real-gdp-per-capita/
3. Inflation - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/inflation-is-rhino-room-world-deutsche-bank-says-2022-04-01/
4. Manufacturing - https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/asia-s-manufacturing-rebound-falters-as-war-takes-its-toll
5. Housing Costs - https://www.marketplace.org/2022/04/01/higher-mortgage-rates-could-make-the-housing-supply-problem-
worse/
6. China manufacturing - https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/china-manufacturing-pmi-suffers-worst-decline-
in-two-years--9508145.html
7. Central bank - https://royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com/v/central-banks-playing-catch-up
8. Oil - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Production-Has-Already-Begun-To-Decline.html
9. Natural gas - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-prices-break-out-956247
10. Critical metals - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-prices-break-out-956247
Blog – Stock Market – What is next?
No Foolin' on Rate
Hikes.pdf
Commodity Prices
Benefit From Weakening Link To U.S. Dollar Investing.com CA.pdf
South Korea
surpasses Japan in real GDP per capita East Asia Forum.pdf
Inflation 'rhino' may
be difficult to stop, Deutsche Bank says Reuters.pdf
PMI.pdf Asia’s Manufacturing
Rebound Falters as War Takes Its Toll.pdf
Higher mortgage
rates could tighten housing supply - Marketplace.pdf
WestpacWeekly.pdf China manufacturing
PMI suffers worst decline in two years - Sharecast.com.pdf
Monetary policies
and central bank.pdf
Russian Oil
Production Has Already Begun To Decline OilPrice.com.pdf
Natural Gas Prices
Break Out.pdf
War weighs on
low-carbon shift Fitch Investment Executive.pdf
Dow Jones Futures
Signal Market Rally, Oil Drops Below $100; Jobs Report Looms Investor's Business Daily.pdf
Stock market news
live updates Stocks close higher after March jobs report stokes choppy trading session.pdf
Summary:
U.S. stocks closed higher Friday to cap a choppy first trading day of April as investors saw a
closely-watched recession indicator in the bond market briefly flash red and mulled strong labor
market data out of Washington that reaffirmed expectations for more hawkish monetary
tightening plans by the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 rebounded into the close to rise 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
jumped 150 points after both benchmarks struggled for direction during intraday trading. The
Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3% higher, to mark a third week of gains for the tech-heavy index
and the S&P 500. Friday's moves come after Wall Street capped its worst quarter since the start
of 2020.
A key part of the part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverted Friday morning. The
spread, or difference, between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed and
inflected for the third time this week. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a recession,
with each of the last eight recessions dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion.
On Friday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ended the day at 2.38%, 6 basis points
below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.44%.
Source - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-1-2022-
221535663.html

6. BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/
2cb89f8c-5f2c-4cd1-b642-550ea67076e2/
Source – BMO - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f3043170-c659-40f3-
b37f-14ca75272422/
U.S. CPI Still Behind
the Eight Ball.pdf
Canadian CPI — Got
Milk Inflation .pdf

7. OECD AND INFLATION

8. WEALTH global-wealth-report-
2015.pdf
At $514 trillion, China
overtakes US in terms of amassing the biggest net worth, World News wionews.com.pdf
The rapid growth in
global wealth McKinsey.pdf

9. HOSPITALIZATION

10. CASES
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html
covid19-daily-monito
r.pdf

11. DEATHS
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rat
es-and-
analysis/economic-
analysis.html

12. HOSPITALIZATION
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rat
es-and-
analysis/economic-
analysis.html

13. DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates
-and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

14. VACCINES
APPROVAL
Source -
https://www.nytimes.com/inter
active/2020/science/coronaviru
s-vaccine-tracker.html

15. PROCUREMENT
/
VACCINATIONS
Source -
https://launchandscalefaster.or
g/COVID-19

16. VACCINATION
DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.economist.co
m/graphic-
detail/tracking-
coronavirus-across-the-
world

17. USA VS CANADA EMPLOYMENT U.S. Payrolls Another
Gold Medal Month.pdf
Cdn Jobs Silver
Lining in Reopening Playbook.pdf

18. GDP – CANADA VS USA
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/5d512b38-d983-47d7-b6e9-
a343cbe5c8a7/ or https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-economic-
forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/1be1761a-
815a-439e-bfaa-476fb22c271f/
GDP - USA -
3Q21.pdf

19. USA VS CANADA – RETAIL SALES
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/22b2cd6b-
9bd5-40bd-adb5-cc731fd39393/
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publicati
ons/detail/aa07ad91-c6e1-4f66-9955-
c8e8ab17638d/
U.S. Retail Sales The
Pause That Refreshes - Consumer spending.pdf
A Joyous January
Indeed.pdf

20. GDP FORECAST
Source – Scotiabank
forecast_20220311.p
df

21. BLOG – CRISIS MANAGEMENT
There are emergency management
depts for a reason. So, why has
emergency management not been
subjected to annual audits as part of
scrutinization when it comes to
geopolitical events?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcg
a/crisis-and-emergency-management-
how-best-to-manage-risk

22. AUDIT REPORT / CANADA PANDEMIC
Crisis Management
Auditor/Report
Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the
Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not
appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages, Canada's auditor general says.
In a hard-hitting review released today, Auditor General Karen Hogan took the
country's primary pandemic response agency to task for failures in early warning,
surveillance, risk assessments, data-sharing with the provinces and follow-up on
Canadian travelers who were ordered into quarantine.
"The agency was not adequately prepared to respond to the pandemic, and it
underestimated the potential impact of the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said
the AG's review — one of three that looked at the Liberal government's management
of the COVID-19 crisis, which as of Thursday had killed 22,780 Canadians and
brought the country's economy to its knees.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-pandemic-covid-phac-1.5963895
Here is my work on crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-there-needs-to-be-audited-reports-of-
crisis-emergency-management-policies-and-procedures

23. NEW NORMAL
Here are many links on great work by Mckinsey Group - https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-
leading-through-the-crisis?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-
mck&hlkid=e220291424cb421991e4e6a3b37ecb2d&hctky=11493232&hdpid=b812b692-ed48-496d-a1e4-
9eb133561e6b#
I can add a bit more color in terms of what needs to transpire:
1. Careers in demand are those that are in areas like skills trades or healthcare or Information technology.
2. World continues to grow public sector employment at higher rate than the goods-producing sector.
3. Targeting policies that will support the reshoring of key parts of the supply chain.
4. Better balance between regulations when it comes to supporting getting goods to market.
5. More targeted focus of customers on areas like customer success to better help drive transformation of both the
public and private sectors.
6. Information technology will play a key role in terms of transforming the economy.
7. Fixing issues with global trade including the elimination of protectionism policies.
8. Reforming taxation including transforming tax acts as well as closing-down tax havens.
9. Reforming the housing market to ensure it is more affordable.
10. Reforming the size of government as part of moving to a digital model
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-canada-and-the-world-february-2021-242414576

24. SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_sour
ce=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end consumer.
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

25. SUPPLY CHAIN
Blog – Ecommerce and Retail – Container Shortage and Risks to Supply Chain
Ship-building companies continue to work on building ever larger container vessels, and there’s little
evidence this trend will stop anytime soon.
Today, an estimated 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea, with 60% of that – including virtually
all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly
commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, about US$14 trillion of the
world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box.
In short, without the standardized container, the global supply chain that society depends upon – and that I
study – would not exist.
A recent shortage of these containers is raising costs and snarling supply chains of thousands of products
across the world. The situation highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that,
from a distance, resemble Lego blocks floating on the sea.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/global-shortage-of-shipping-containers-highlights-their-importance-
in-getting-goods-to-amazon-warehouses-store-shelves-and-your-door-in-time-for-christmas/

26. NEXT PANDEMIC
Source - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/g20-leaders-urged-at-
global-health-summit-to-take-bold-action-to-prevent-future-pandemics-
868068233.html
TORONTO, May 21, 2021 /CNW/ - As G20 leaders meet for a Global Health Summit, the global
charity World Animal Protection is urging them to prioritize pandemic prevention and to curb the
global commercial wildlife trade due to its role in this pandemic and previous epidemics.
How come you never demand performance audits from @WHO
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-
value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits

27. RISK MANAGEMENT
Blog – Managing Data as part of Mitigating Geopolitical Risks –
Private and Public Sector
• This ties nicely into my many blogs around how best to
managed data as it relates to geopolitical events:
• Audit and Risk Analytics
https://ibm.ent.box.com/folder/116292560123
• Crisis and Emergency Management -
https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

28. OTHER GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Source - https://globalriskinsights.com/
1. Chile Election
2. Sudan political instability
3. EMEA dependence on Russia Natural Gas
4. South Africa political instability
5. Future Pandemic outbreak
6. China and Taiwan
7. Ukraine and Russia Conflict
8. Military coups in Africa
9. Iran nuclear weapons
10. Hamas and Hezbollah

29. IMPROVING IMMUNE SYSTEMS
• Improving the immune system - https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2020/mar/5-ways-to-boost-
your-immune-system/
• Food and immune system - https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/foods-that-boost-the-immune-
system
• Startups - https://www.medicalstartups.org/top/immunotherapy/
• Gene and cell therapy = https://www.drugtargetreview.com/article/100201/highlights-from-drug-target-
reviews-cell-gene-therapy-advancements-online-summit/

30. BOOSTER SHOTS
Source - https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-
boosters-block-immunity-omicron-study-finds/
COVID boosters do
not provide protection against Omicron, study finds Fortune - Heatlhcare.pdf

31. FOOD COSTS
1. Trucker shortage
2. Factor labor shortage
3. Rising warehouse costs
4. Food scarcity
5. Supply chain delays
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/5-reasons-why-groceries-are-so-expensive-right-now/?ecms_id=6176bbf5-ba66-
4d82-89f1-df3e9ceb9969&ecms_short=ART6517&doc_type=ted_article&sponsored=&acct=&parent_id=d2286731-
fef9-4f48-8a45-
df0f64c043f9&utm_content=featuredstory&position=2&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_ind
ustry_update&campaign_name=tiu220204&utm_campaign=tiu220204&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_i
ndustry_update&tinid=221763045
Here is my work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transportation-sector-analysis-and-commentary-
december-2021

32. SUMMARY
• More and more countries are lifting vaccine mandates.
• Supply chain continues to face many challenges.
• Immune and gene therapy continue to explore at different ways to treat diseases.
• Little has been said about the need for all levels of government to have better crisis and risk
management policies and procedures.
• WHO governance model needs to have more audits as part ensuring steps are taking to
mitigate future pandemics.
Blog – Geopolitical Risks and Events – Diseases and Variants
covid19-daily-monito
r.pdf
forecast_20220311.p
df
Third-Party
Governance and Risk Management Deloitte US.pdf
Global growth
momentum facing headwinds amid geopolitical risk and soaring prices - Design Build Network.pdf
Industry looks to
budget for help on supply chain problems, domestic production.pdf
Brussels accelerates
its Circular Economy drive • Recycling International.pdf
Worried About Rising
Interest Rates These 2 Growth Stocks Could Help The Motley Fool.pdf
The 9 Best Healthcare
Technologies That Have Improved Wellness .pdf
Affordability a
struggle, value lacking in health care.pdf
Module labs are a
polarizing plan for COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing in Africa - Advanced Science News.pdf
Fujifilm socks $530M
into U.K. vaccine, gene therapy and microbial production, creating 350 jobs Fierce Pharma.pdf
Health-care system
likely able to handle new 'bump' in COVID cases Tam National Post.pdf
Immune system
'sentinel' cells key to maintaining and regulating response to immunotherapy.pdf
Are stagflation and
recession on the horizon for G7 economies FocusEconomics.pdf
Global Weekly
Economic Update Deloitte Insights.pdf
Economic conditions
outlook, March 2022 McKinsey.pdf
War in Ukraine
projected to trigger global growth slowdown.pdf
Inflation, geopolitical
risks and regulation top CFO worries, survey says.pdf
Summary
COVID variances continue to evolve
Global GDP growth is facing many challenges
High household debt default is at risk due to potential hiking of interest rates
More and more people are looking at their health and wellness
Too much focus is being put on climate change
1. Risk - https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/advisory/articles/third-party-governance-and-
risk-management-reporting.html
2. Geopolitical - https://www.designbuild-network.com/comment/global-growth-momentum-
geopolitical-risk/
3. Supply chain - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/industry-looks-budget-help-supply-
154431606.html
4. Circular - https://recyclinginternational.com/textiles/brussels-accelerates-its-circular-economy-
drive/48599/
5. Interest rates - https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/04/01/worried-about-rising-interest-
rates-these-2-growth/
6. Healthcare https://www.makeuseof.com/best-healthcare-tech-improved-wellness/
7. Healthcare - https://www.medicaleconomics.com/view/affordability-a-struggle-value-lacking-in-
health-care
8. Labs - https://www.advancedsciencenews.com/module-labs-are-a-polarizing-plan-for-covid-19-
vaccine-manufacturing-in-africa/
9. Gene - https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/fujifilm-socks-530m-into-u-k-vaccine-
gene-therapy-and-microbial-production-creating

33. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning, and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies