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Preliminary– Inflation
Analysis –Canada
Paul Young CPA CGA
March 22, 2022
Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Customer Success Management
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
Agenda
• TFSA / Trudeau 2015
• CPP Changes
• OAS Changes
• RRSP
• TFSA
• Savings
• Pension Returns
• Stock Market
Pension Reforms
Source - https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/592760406940192771
CPP Changes
OAS Changes
RRSP
TFSA
•
• @JustinTrudeau told people in 2015 that
only the rich used the TFSA -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-
investor/personal-finance/household-
finances/liberals-confirm-rollback-of-tfsa-
limit-in-2016/article27638448/
• Trudeau policies also help support higher
inflation
• People are struggling and you ignore that
factor, why?
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
/what-is-up-with-pensions-and-savings-for-
canada
• Where do you stand on Trudeau's new
savings account?
•
Savings / Trudeau Great Savings - RBC -
20212810.pdf
Pension Plans
1. Teachers’ pensions - https://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/must-reads/bc-teachers-push-to-divest-pension-fund-from-oil-and-gas-companies-5176681
2. ESG - https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/oil-producing-states-push-back-against-esg-screening-by-
pension-fund-managers-69421719
3. Defined-Benefit - https://www.actuarialsolutionsinc.com/2022/03/14/new-fsra-guidance-for-the-pension-benefit-guarantee-fund/
4. Pensions - https://www.pionline.com/pension-funds/healthcare-ontario-pension-plan-returns-113-2021
5. Pensions - https://www.benefitscanada.com/canadian-investment-review/db-investments/caat-reports-11-average-10-year-net-return/
6. CPPIB - https://www.benefitscanada.com/canadian-investment-review/db-investments/caat-reports-11-average-10-year-net-return/
7. Italy - https://www.ipe.com/news/italian-pension-funds-feel-the-pain-of-war-in-ukraine/10058677.article
8. TFSA - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tfsa-investors-where-invest-6-120000159.html
9. Defined-benefit - https://www.benefitscanada.com/canadian-investment-review/strategies/two-years-later-db-plans-out-of-the-pandemic-frying-pan-into-
the-geopolitical-fire/
10. Pensions - https://www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/defined-benefit-pensions/fiscal-sustainability-of-db-pensions-more-important-than-overall-liabilities-
report/
11. Solvency - https://www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/defined-benefit-pensions/majority-of-canadian-db-pension-solvency-ratios-above-100-per-cent-
report/
12. Global Pensions - https://www.theactuary.com/news/2022/02/16/global-pension-assets-soar-record-56trn
PRESENTATION TITLE 2/11/20XX
11
Summary:
U.S. stocks closed higher Friday to cap a choppy first trading day of April as investors saw a closely-watched recession indicator in the
bond market briefly flash red and mulled strong labor market data out of Washington that reaffirmed expectations for more hawkish
monetary tightening plans by the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 rebounded into the close to rise 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 150 points after both benchmarks
struggled for direction during intraday trading. The Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3% higher, to mark a third week of gains for the tech-
heavy index and the S&P 500. Friday's moves come after Wall Street capped its worst quarter since the start of 2020.
A key part of the part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverted Friday morning. The spread, or difference, between the 2-year
and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed and inflected for the third time this week. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a
recession, with each of the last eight recessions dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion. On Friday, the yield on the 10-
year U.S. Treasury bond ended the day at 2.38%, 6 basis points below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.44%.
Source - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-1-2022-221535663.html and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-the-stock-market-april-2-2022ppt
1. Commodities - https://ca.investing.com/analysis/commodity-prices-benefit-from-weakening-link-to-us-dollar-200505008
2. South Korea - https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/04/01/south-korea-surpasses-japan-in-real-gdp-per-capita/
3. Inflation - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/inflation-is-rhino-room-world-deutsche-bank-says-2022-04-01/
4. Manufacturing - https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/asia-s-manufacturing-rebound-falters-as-war-takes-its-toll
5. Housing Costs - https://www.marketplace.org/2022/04/01/higher-mortgage-rates-could-make-the-housing-supply-problem-
worse/
6. China manufacturing - https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/china-manufacturing-pmi-suffers-worst-decline-
in-two-years--9508145.html
7. Central bank - https://royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com/v/central-banks-playing-catch-up
8. Oil - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Production-Has-Already-Begun-To-Decline.html
9. Natural gas - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-prices-break-out-956247
10. Critical metals - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-prices-break-out-956247
Blog – Stock Market – What is next?
No Foolin' on Rate
Hikes.pdf
Commodity Prices
Benefit From Weakening Link To U.S. Dollar Investing.com CA.pdf
South Korea
surpasses Japan in real GDP per capita East Asia Forum.pdf
Inflation 'rhino' may
be difficult to stop, Deutsche Bank says Reuters.pdf
PMI.pdf Asia’s Manufacturing
Rebound Falters as War Takes Its Toll.pdf
Higher mortgage
rates could tighten housing supply - Marketplace.pdf
WestpacWeekly.pdf China manufacturing
PMI suffers worst decline in two years - Sharecast.com.pdf
Monetary policies
and central bank.pdf
Russian Oil
Production Has Already Begun To Decline OilPrice.com.pdf
Natural Gas Prices
Break Out.pdf
War weighs on
low-carbon shift Fitch Investment Executive.pdf
Dow Jones Futures
Signal Market Rally, Oil Drops Below $100; Jobs Report Looms Investor's Business Daily.pdf
Stock market news
live updates Stocks close higher after March jobs report stokes choppy trading session.pdf
Summary:
U.S. stocks closed higher Friday to cap a choppy first trading day of April as investors saw a
closely-watched recession indicator in the bond market briefly flash red and mulled strong labor
market data out of Washington that reaffirmed expectations for more hawkish monetary
tightening plans by the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 rebounded into the close to rise 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
jumped 150 points after both benchmarks struggled for direction during intraday trading. The
Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3% higher, to mark a third week of gains for the tech-heavy index
and the S&P 500. Friday's moves come after Wall Street capped its worst quarter since the start
of 2020.
A key part of the part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverted Friday morning. The
spread, or difference, between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed and
inflected for the third time this week. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a recession,
with each of the last eight recessions dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion.
On Friday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ended the day at 2.38%, 6 basis points
below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.44%.
Source - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-1-2022-
221535663.html
Summary
• CPP rates have gone up significantly since liberals took office
• OAS payouts have risen under the Liberals
• GIS has risen, but not accessibility as the threshold has not been adjusted to reflect the livable wage
• Trudeau said only rich were using the TFSA was far from being accurate
• Middle class has seen their taxes go up under Trudeau
• Carbon tax introduced by the Liberals is partly responsible for high inflation rate
• Trudeau team never reviews policies to ensure they are effective. More audits are require to review
various programs to ensure they are effective
Blog – Savings and Retirement Planning – Policy Analysis
Great Savings - RBC -
20212810.pdf
Justin Trudeau would
loosen PMO control, reverse trend started by father CBC News.pdf
The elusive middle
class - MoneySense.pdf
TFSA not just a
vehicle for rich Wealth Professional.pdf
CPP contribution
rates, maximums and exemptions - Canada.ca.pdf
isp-card-april-june-2
022.pdf
dq220316c-eng.pdf
TFSAs Who really
benefits from new contribution limits CBC News.pdf
Speech by Justin
Trudeau on fairness for the middle class Liberal Party of Canada.pdf
CFIB wary of
incoming CPP premium hike Benefits Canada.com.pdf
A Distributional
Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy.pdf
Federal tax changes
increase burden on lower-income families Fraser Institute.pdf
Federal government
has increased income taxes on middle class Fraser Institute.pdf
Few Canadian seniors
are deferring retirement benefits, when doing so could mean tens of thousands of extra dollars - The Globe and Mail.pdf
Six critical global
issues What are the world’s biggest problems and how can I help GVI Planet.pdf
Ontario Teachers’
Pension Plan earned 11.1% return in 2021 Globalnews.ca.pdf
NDP motion calls for
transitioning CERB into guaranteed basic income Benefits Canada.com.pdf
‘No one-size-fits-all’
choice for work pension as millennials make future plans expert - National Globalnews.ca.pdf
Global Pension Funds
Market 2022 Industry Research Report, with Market Growth, Global Industry Trends, Competitive Analysis, Emerging Trends and Forecast - MarketWatch.pdf
RRSP and Retirement
Planning.pdf
Summary:
Since 2015 many Canadians have seen their quality of life worsen under the progressive agenda by
Justin Trudeau. Housing costs are the highest level in the history of Canada. People are being tax more
through higher payroll taxes and/or removal tax credit programs along with other tax changes.
Trudeau also said during 2015 that only rich were using TFSA. Trudeau statement on TFSA was proven
false numerous times
Trudeau and his team do a poor job reviewing programs to ensure they are effective. In many cases,
Trudeau teams ignores reports from the auditor general, PBO, ombudsman, and other groups.
1. C PP Hikes and small businesses - https://www.benefitscanada.com/news/bencan/cfib-wary-of-
incoming-cpp-premium-hike/
2. Carbon tax and costs - https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/RP-2122-032-S--
distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy--
une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain-
une-eco
3. Lower income and taxes - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/federal-tax-changes-increase-
burden-on-lower-income-families
4. Middle class - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/federal-government-has-increased-
income-taxes-on-middle-class
5. Seniors - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-few-canadian-seniors-are-
deferring-retirement-benefits-when-doing-so/

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  • 2. Paul Young - Bio • CPA, CGA (1996) • Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2) • SME – Customer Success Management • SME – Risk Management • SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting • SME – Public Policy • SME – Emerging Technology • SME – Business Process Change • SME – Financial Solutions • SME – Macro/Micro Indicators • SME – Supply Chain Management • SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform • SME – Internal Controls and Auditing Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/ SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
  • 3. Agenda • TFSA / Trudeau 2015 • CPP Changes • OAS Changes • RRSP • TFSA • Savings • Pension Returns • Stock Market
  • 4. Pension Reforms Source - https://twitter.com/justintrudeau/status/592760406940192771
  • 8. TFSA • • @JustinTrudeau told people in 2015 that only the rich used the TFSA - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe- investor/personal-finance/household- finances/liberals-confirm-rollback-of-tfsa- limit-in-2016/article27638448/ • Trudeau policies also help support higher inflation • People are struggling and you ignore that factor, why? • https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga /what-is-up-with-pensions-and-savings-for- canada • Where do you stand on Trudeau's new savings account? •
  • 9. Savings / Trudeau Great Savings - RBC - 20212810.pdf
  • 10. Pension Plans 1. Teachers’ pensions - https://www.piquenewsmagazine.com/must-reads/bc-teachers-push-to-divest-pension-fund-from-oil-and-gas-companies-5176681 2. ESG - https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/oil-producing-states-push-back-against-esg-screening-by- pension-fund-managers-69421719 3. Defined-Benefit - https://www.actuarialsolutionsinc.com/2022/03/14/new-fsra-guidance-for-the-pension-benefit-guarantee-fund/ 4. Pensions - https://www.pionline.com/pension-funds/healthcare-ontario-pension-plan-returns-113-2021 5. Pensions - https://www.benefitscanada.com/canadian-investment-review/db-investments/caat-reports-11-average-10-year-net-return/ 6. CPPIB - https://www.benefitscanada.com/canadian-investment-review/db-investments/caat-reports-11-average-10-year-net-return/ 7. Italy - https://www.ipe.com/news/italian-pension-funds-feel-the-pain-of-war-in-ukraine/10058677.article 8. TFSA - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tfsa-investors-where-invest-6-120000159.html 9. Defined-benefit - https://www.benefitscanada.com/canadian-investment-review/strategies/two-years-later-db-plans-out-of-the-pandemic-frying-pan-into- the-geopolitical-fire/ 10. Pensions - https://www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/defined-benefit-pensions/fiscal-sustainability-of-db-pensions-more-important-than-overall-liabilities- report/ 11. Solvency - https://www.benefitscanada.com/pensions/defined-benefit-pensions/majority-of-canadian-db-pension-solvency-ratios-above-100-per-cent- report/ 12. Global Pensions - https://www.theactuary.com/news/2022/02/16/global-pension-assets-soar-record-56trn
  • 11. PRESENTATION TITLE 2/11/20XX 11 Summary: U.S. stocks closed higher Friday to cap a choppy first trading day of April as investors saw a closely-watched recession indicator in the bond market briefly flash red and mulled strong labor market data out of Washington that reaffirmed expectations for more hawkish monetary tightening plans by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 rebounded into the close to rise 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 150 points after both benchmarks struggled for direction during intraday trading. The Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3% higher, to mark a third week of gains for the tech- heavy index and the S&P 500. Friday's moves come after Wall Street capped its worst quarter since the start of 2020. A key part of the part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverted Friday morning. The spread, or difference, between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed and inflected for the third time this week. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a recession, with each of the last eight recessions dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion. On Friday, the yield on the 10- year U.S. Treasury bond ended the day at 2.38%, 6 basis points below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.44%. Source - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-1-2022-221535663.html and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-the-stock-market-april-2-2022ppt 1. Commodities - https://ca.investing.com/analysis/commodity-prices-benefit-from-weakening-link-to-us-dollar-200505008 2. South Korea - https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2022/04/01/south-korea-surpasses-japan-in-real-gdp-per-capita/ 3. Inflation - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/inflation-is-rhino-room-world-deutsche-bank-says-2022-04-01/ 4. Manufacturing - https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/asia-s-manufacturing-rebound-falters-as-war-takes-its-toll 5. Housing Costs - https://www.marketplace.org/2022/04/01/higher-mortgage-rates-could-make-the-housing-supply-problem- worse/ 6. China manufacturing - https://www.sharecast.com/news/international-economic/china-manufacturing-pmi-suffers-worst-decline- in-two-years--9508145.html 7. Central bank - https://royal-bank-of-canada-2124.docs.contently.com/v/central-banks-playing-catch-up 8. Oil - https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Production-Has-Already-Begun-To-Decline.html 9. Natural gas - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-prices-break-out-956247 10. Critical metals - https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/natural-gas-prices-break-out-956247 Blog – Stock Market – What is next? No Foolin' on Rate Hikes.pdf Commodity Prices Benefit From Weakening Link To U.S. Dollar Investing.com CA.pdf South Korea surpasses Japan in real GDP per capita East Asia Forum.pdf Inflation 'rhino' may be difficult to stop, Deutsche Bank says Reuters.pdf PMI.pdf Asia’s Manufacturing Rebound Falters as War Takes Its Toll.pdf Higher mortgage rates could tighten housing supply - Marketplace.pdf WestpacWeekly.pdf China manufacturing PMI suffers worst decline in two years - Sharecast.com.pdf Monetary policies and central bank.pdf Russian Oil Production Has Already Begun To Decline OilPrice.com.pdf Natural Gas Prices Break Out.pdf War weighs on low-carbon shift Fitch Investment Executive.pdf Dow Jones Futures Signal Market Rally, Oil Drops Below $100; Jobs Report Looms Investor's Business Daily.pdf Stock market news live updates Stocks close higher after March jobs report stokes choppy trading session.pdf Summary: U.S. stocks closed higher Friday to cap a choppy first trading day of April as investors saw a closely-watched recession indicator in the bond market briefly flash red and mulled strong labor market data out of Washington that reaffirmed expectations for more hawkish monetary tightening plans by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 rebounded into the close to rise 0.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 150 points after both benchmarks struggled for direction during intraday trading. The Nasdaq Composite edged 0.3% higher, to mark a third week of gains for the tech-heavy index and the S&P 500. Friday's moves come after Wall Street capped its worst quarter since the start of 2020. A key part of the part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve briefly inverted Friday morning. The spread, or difference, between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed and inflected for the third time this week. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a recession, with each of the last eight recessions dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion. On Friday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond ended the day at 2.38%, 6 basis points below the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield of 2.44%. Source - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-april-1-2022- 221535663.html
  • 12. Summary • CPP rates have gone up significantly since liberals took office • OAS payouts have risen under the Liberals • GIS has risen, but not accessibility as the threshold has not been adjusted to reflect the livable wage • Trudeau said only rich were using the TFSA was far from being accurate • Middle class has seen their taxes go up under Trudeau • Carbon tax introduced by the Liberals is partly responsible for high inflation rate • Trudeau team never reviews policies to ensure they are effective. More audits are require to review various programs to ensure they are effective Blog – Savings and Retirement Planning – Policy Analysis Great Savings - RBC - 20212810.pdf Justin Trudeau would loosen PMO control, reverse trend started by father CBC News.pdf The elusive middle class - MoneySense.pdf TFSA not just a vehicle for rich Wealth Professional.pdf CPP contribution rates, maximums and exemptions - Canada.ca.pdf isp-card-april-june-2 022.pdf dq220316c-eng.pdf TFSAs Who really benefits from new contribution limits CBC News.pdf Speech by Justin Trudeau on fairness for the middle class Liberal Party of Canada.pdf CFIB wary of incoming CPP premium hike Benefits Canada.com.pdf A Distributional Analysis of Federal Carbon Pricing under A Healthy Environment and A Healthy Economy.pdf Federal tax changes increase burden on lower-income families Fraser Institute.pdf Federal government has increased income taxes on middle class Fraser Institute.pdf Few Canadian seniors are deferring retirement benefits, when doing so could mean tens of thousands of extra dollars - The Globe and Mail.pdf Six critical global issues What are the world’s biggest problems and how can I help GVI Planet.pdf Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan earned 11.1% return in 2021 Globalnews.ca.pdf NDP motion calls for transitioning CERB into guaranteed basic income Benefits Canada.com.pdf ‘No one-size-fits-all’ choice for work pension as millennials make future plans expert - National Globalnews.ca.pdf Global Pension Funds Market 2022 Industry Research Report, with Market Growth, Global Industry Trends, Competitive Analysis, Emerging Trends and Forecast - MarketWatch.pdf RRSP and Retirement Planning.pdf Summary: Since 2015 many Canadians have seen their quality of life worsen under the progressive agenda by Justin Trudeau. Housing costs are the highest level in the history of Canada. People are being tax more through higher payroll taxes and/or removal tax credit programs along with other tax changes. Trudeau also said during 2015 that only rich were using TFSA. Trudeau statement on TFSA was proven false numerous times Trudeau and his team do a poor job reviewing programs to ensure they are effective. In many cases, Trudeau teams ignores reports from the auditor general, PBO, ombudsman, and other groups. 1. C PP Hikes and small businesses - https://www.benefitscanada.com/news/bencan/cfib-wary-of- incoming-cpp-premium-hike/ 2. Carbon tax and costs - https://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/RP-2122-032-S-- distributional-analysis-federal-carbon-pricing-under-healthy-environment-healthy-economy-- une-analyse-distributive-tarification-federale-carbone-dans-cadre-plan-un-environnement-sain- une-eco 3. Lower income and taxes - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/federal-tax-changes-increase- burden-on-lower-income-families 4. Middle class - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/federal-government-has-increased- income-taxes-on-middle-class 5. Seniors - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-few-canadian-seniors-are- deferring-retirement-benefits-when-doing-so/

Editor's Notes

  1. Source - https://www.canada.ca/en/employment-social-development/programs/pensions/pension.html