My latest on geopolitical risks and events

1. GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS – VIRUSES
MANAGEMENT – WORLD HEALTH
ORGANIZATION AND WORLD
GOVERNMENTS
Paul Young CPA CGA
April 29, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
CPA, CGA (1996)
Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
SME – Customer Success Management
SME – Risk Management
SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
SME – Public Policy
SME – Emerging Technology
SME – Business Process Change
SME – Financial Solutions
SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
SME – Supply Chain Management
SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
SME – Internal Controls and Auditing

3. AGENDA
• Inflation
• Stock Market
• Wealth
• Cases
• Deaths
• Vaccinations by country
• Vaccinations / Delivery
• Vaccines / Approval
• Vaccinations / Procurement
• Employment – January 2021 (USA vs Canada)
• Unemployment (Canada vs OECD and G7)
• Stock Market
• Global GDP / Forecast
• Blog – Crisis Management
• Blog – New Normal
• Blog – Supply Chain
• Summary
• Training/Development

4. TOP GEOPOLITICAL THREATS
Source - https://www.ey.com/en_jo/geostrategy/when-political-disruption-surrounds-you-whats-your-next-strategic-
move
1. A two-tiered world
2. Evolving great power relationships
3. Middle powers on the global stage
4. Rise of cyber piracy
5. Climate change political nexus
6. Green mineral nationalism
7. Increase intervention supply chain
8. Technology nationalization
9. Expansion of the Brussels effect
10. Inequality and push for redistribution

5. SUMMARY
PRESENTATION TITLE 5
Summary:
Summary:
The stock market sold off sharply Friday, as bond yields hit new highs, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s intent to rapidly
hike short-term interest rates. The 2-year Treasury yield closed at a new multi-year high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 981 points, or 2.8%, while the S&P 500 was down 2.8%. The Nasdaq
Composite fell 2.6%. The Dow had its worst day since October 28, 2020.
Source https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-today-51650617605 and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-up-with-the-stock-market-april-21-2022pptx
Stock market news
live updates Stocks extend losses as investors weigh hawkish Powell remarks, more corporate earnings.pdf
Analysis Growth
slowdown fears temper bullishness on commodity currencies Reuters.pdf
How war in Ukraine is
reshaping global order – Harvard Gazette.pdf
Global public debt to
fall to 94.4% of GDP in 2022 IMF.pdf
Opinion The Russian
Invasion of Ukraine in Context Global Risk Insights.pdf
Will the Housing
Market Crash .pdf
Peterborough letter
Housing crisis isn’t a partisan issue ThePeterboroughExaminer.com.pdf
Agritech investments
needed now to shore up B.C. food security - Commentary Business in Vancouver.pdf
Robotic Disruption in
US Workforce Leads to New Opportunities and Challenges RoboticsTomorrow.pdf
Weekly roundup
monetary policy will determine greenflation - Green Central Banking.pdf
Free Markets vs.
Green Energy - WSJ.pdf
Financial insecurity is
the next great health crisis Modern Healthcare.pdf
How technology can
help solve the healthcare affordability crisis.pdf
Shanghai’s Plan to
Reboot the Supply Chain Will Hit Workers Hardest WIRED.pdf
Stagflation Threat Is
Latest Nail-Biter For Retailers.pdf
Why Is the Stock
Market Down Today Dow Dropped Nearly 1,000 Points as Bond Yields Rose. Barron's.pdf
v
Blog – Stock Market – WE April 21, 2022
Hawks Still
Circling.pdf
Stock market news
live updates Stocks extend losses as investors weigh hawkish Powell remarks, more corporate earnings.pdf
WestpacWeekly.pdf China Economic.pdf
Summary:
The stock market sold off sharply Friday, as bond yields hit new highs, reflecting the Federal
Reserve’s intent to rapidly hike short-term interest rates. The 2-year Treasury yield closed at a
new multi-year high.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 981 points, or 2.8%, while the S&P 500 was
down 2.8%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.6%. The Dow had its worst day since October 28,
2020.
Source https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-today-51650617605
1. Commodity Price - https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/growth-slowdown-fears-temper-
bullishness-commodity-currencies-2022-04-21/
2. Global GDP - https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/04/how-war-in-ukraine-is-
reshaping-global-order/
3. Government Debt - https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/global-public-debt-to-fall-to-944-of-
gdp-in-2022-imf/2570337
4. Geopolitical Risks - https://globalriskinsights.com/2022/04/opinion-the-russian-invasion-of-
ukraine-in-context/
5. Housing bubble - https://clark.com/homes-real-estate/housing-market-crash/ and
https://www.thepeterboroughexaminer.com/opinion/letters-to-the-
editors/2022/04/22/peterborough-letter-housing-crisis-isnt-a-partisan-issue.html
6. Food - https://biv.com/article/2022/04/agritech-investments-needed-now-shore-bc-food-
security

6. OECD AND INFLATION

7. BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Source -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/
2cb89f8c-5f2c-4cd1-b642-550ea67076e2/
Source – BMO - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f3043170-c659-40f3-
b37f-14ca75272422/
U.S. CPI More To The
Core.pdf
Canadian Inflation
Six-point-Seven Degrees of Separation.pdf

8. WEALTH global-wealth-report-
2015.pdf
At $514 trillion, China
overtakes US in terms of amassing the biggest net worth, World News wionews.com.pdf
The rapid growth in
global wealth McKinsey.pdf

9. HOSPITALIZATION

10. CASES
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates-
and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html
covid19-weekly-monit
or.pdf

11. DEATHS
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rat
es-and-
analysis/economic-
analysis.html

12. HOSPITALIZATION
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates
-and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

13. DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.nbc.ca/en/rates
-and-analysis/economic-
analysis.html

14. VACCINES
APPROVAL
Source -
https://www.nytimes.com/inter
active/2020/science/coronaviru
s-vaccine-tracker.html

15. PROCUREMENT
/
VACCINATIONS
Source -
https://launchandscalefaster.or
g/COVID-19

16. VACCINATION
DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.economist.co
m/graphic-
detail/tracking-
coronavirus-across-the-
world

17. USA VS CANADA EMPLOYMENT Cdn Jobs Silver
Lining in Reopening Playbook.pdf
BMO - USA
Employment - 202203.pdf
Canadian Jobless
Rate Going Low.pdf

18. GDP – CANADA VS USA
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/5d512b38-d983-47d7-
b6e9-a343cbe5c8a7/ or https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/us-
economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html MSM never mentioned how GDP went from 3.0% in 2017 to 1.6 in 2019. Trudeau
also never mentioned how inflation.
16 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2016-november-2016-gdp-gross-
domestic-product-canada
18 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-the-real-truth
Oct/21 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-analysis-and-
commentary-october-2021

19. USA VS CANADA – RETAIL SALES
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/a853fd96-
0cca-432a-b7aa-2ebe705ff650/
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publicati
ons/detail/6f2cf917-a368-482e-8c45-
6cdd63a6020b/
U.S. Retail Sales
Deflating.pdf

20. GDP FORECAST
Source – Scotiabank
BNS_Forecast.pdf

21. BLOG – CRISIS MANAGEMENT
There are emergency management
depts for a reason. So, why has
emergency management not been
subjected to annual audits as part of
scrutinization when it comes to
geopolitical events?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcg
a/crisis-and-emergency-management-
how-best-to-manage-risk

22. AUDIT REPORT / CANADA PANDEMIC
Crisis Management
Auditor/Report
Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the
Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not
appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages, Canada's auditor general says.
In a hard-hitting review released today, Auditor General Karen Hogan took the
country's primary pandemic response agency to task for failures in early warning,
surveillance, risk assessments, data-sharing with the provinces and follow-up on
Canadian travelers who were ordered into quarantine.
"The agency was not adequately prepared to respond to the pandemic, and it
underestimated the potential impact of the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said
the AG's review — one of three that looked at the Liberal government's management
of the COVID-19 crisis, which as of Thursday had killed 22,780 Canadians and
brought the country's economy to its knees.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-pandemic-covid-phac-1.5963895
Here is my work on crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-there-needs-to-be-audited-reports-of-
crisis-emergency-management-policies-and-procedures

23. NEW NORMAL
Here are many links on great work by Mckinsey Group - https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-
leading-through-the-crisis?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-
mck&hlkid=e220291424cb421991e4e6a3b37ecb2d&hctky=11493232&hdpid=b812b692-ed48-496d-a1e4-
9eb133561e6b#
I can add a bit more color in terms of what needs to transpire:
1. Careers in demand are those that are in areas like skills trades or healthcare or Information technology.
2. World continues to grow public sector employment at higher rate than the goods-producing sector.
3. Targeting policies that will support the reshoring of key parts of the supply chain.
4. Better balance between regulations when it comes to supporting getting goods to market.
5. More targeted focus of customers on areas like customer success to better help drive transformation of both the
public and private sectors.
6. Information technology will play a key role in terms of transforming the economy.
7. Fixing issues with global trade including the elimination of protectionism policies.
8. Reforming taxation including transforming tax acts as well as closing-down tax havens.
9. Reforming the housing market to ensure it is more affordable.
10. Reforming the size of government as part of moving to a digital model
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-canada-and-the-world-february-2021-242414576

24. SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_sour
ce=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end consumer.
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

25. SUPPLY CHAIN
Blog – Ecommerce and Retail – Container Shortage and Risks to Supply Chain
Ship-building companies continue to work on building ever larger container vessels, and there’s little
evidence this trend will stop anytime soon.
Today, an estimated 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea, with 60% of that – including virtually
all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly
commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, about US$14 trillion of the
world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box.
In short, without the standardized container, the global supply chain that society depends upon – and that I
study – would not exist.
A recent shortage of these containers is raising costs and snarling supply chains of thousands of products
across the world. The situation highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that,
from a distance, resemble Lego blocks floating on the sea.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/global-shortage-of-shipping-containers-highlights-their-importance-
in-getting-goods-to-amazon-warehouses-store-shelves-and-your-door-in-time-for-christmas/

26. NEXT PANDEMIC
Source - https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/g20-leaders-urged-at-
global-health-summit-to-take-bold-action-to-prevent-future-pandemics-
868068233.html
TORONTO, May 21, 2021 /CNW/ - As G20 leaders meet for a Global Health Summit, the global
charity World Animal Protection is urging them to prioritize pandemic prevention and to curb the
global commercial wildlife trade due to its role in this pandemic and previous epidemics.
How come you never demand performance audits from @WHO
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-importance-of-
value-for-money-and-perfomance-based-audits

27. RISK MANAGEMENT
Blog – Managing Data as part of Mitigating Geopolitical Risks –
Private and Public Sector
• This ties nicely into my many blogs around how best to
managed data as it relates to geopolitical events:
• Audit and Risk Analytics
https://ibm.ent.box.com/folder/116292560123
• Crisis and Emergency Management -
https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

28. OTHER GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Source - https://globalriskinsights.com/
1. Chile Election
2. Sudan political instability
3. EMEA dependence on Russia Natural Gas
4. South Africa political instability
5. Future Pandemic outbreak
6. China and Taiwan
7. Ukraine and Russia Conflict
8. Military coups in Africa
9. Iran nuclear weapons
10. Hamas and Hezbollah

29. IMPROVING IMMUNE SYSTEMS
• Improving the immune system - https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2020/mar/5-ways-to-boost-
your-immune-system/
• Food and immune system - https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/foods-that-boost-the-immune-
system
• Startups - https://www.medicalstartups.org/top/immunotherapy/
• Gene and cell therapy = https://www.drugtargetreview.com/article/100201/highlights-from-drug-target-
reviews-cell-gene-therapy-advancements-online-summit/

30. BOOSTER SHOTS
Source - https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-
boosters-block-immunity-omicron-study-finds/
COVID boosters do
not provide protection against Omicron, study finds Fortune - Heatlhcare.pdf

31. FOOD COSTS
1. Trucker shortage
2. Factor labor shortage
3. Rising warehouse costs
4. Food scarcity
5. Supply chain delays
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/5-reasons-why-groceries-are-so-expensive-right-now/?ecms_id=6176bbf5-ba66-
4d82-89f1-df3e9ceb9969&ecms_short=ART6517&doc_type=ted_article&sponsored=&acct=&parent_id=d2286731-
fef9-4f48-8a45-
df0f64c043f9&utm_content=featuredstory&position=2&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_ind
ustry_update&campaign_name=tiu220204&utm_campaign=tiu220204&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_i
ndustry_update&tinid=221763045
Here is my work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/transportation-sector-analysis-and-commentary-
december-2021

32. SUMMARY
• More and more countries are lifting vaccine mandates.
• Supply chain continues to face many challenges.
• Immune and gene therapy continue to explore at different ways to treat diseases.
• Little has been said about the need for all levels of government to have better crisis and risk
management policies and procedures.
• WHO governance model needs to have more audits as part ensuring steps are taking to
mitigate future pandemics.
Blog – Geopolitical Events and Risk – Future of Variants
covid19-weekly-monit
or.pdf
A field rich for
discovery realising immunotherapy’s potential - The Institute of Cancer Research, London.pdf
Moderna trains its
mRNA tech on the common cold and a triple whammy against 3 respiratory diseases Fierce Biotech.pdf
Omicron COVID Prior
infections and today's vaccines likely won't help you avoid the new variants, author of new study says Fortune.pdf
Africa CDC warns
COVID-19 vaccine production could cease - The Lancet.pdf
Curbing Rising Health
Care Costs.pdf
Study highlights long
wait times in Canada under single-payer system. Does that make it a bad idea for U.S. Fierce Healthcare.pdf
Experts Say the ‘New
Normal’ in 2025 Will Be Far More Tech-Driven, Presenting More Big Challenges Pew Research Center.pdf
Visualizing the $94
Trillion World Economy in One Chart.pdf
As costs rise,
majority of Canadians are changing their food-buying habits, survey finds Globalnews.ca.pdf
Experts Warn of
Brewing Housing Price Bubble The National Interest.pdf
Do Geopolitical
Tensions Increase Cybersecurity Issues .pdf
1. Immune therapy - https://www.icr.ac.uk/news-features/latest-features/a-field-rich-for-
discovery-realising-immunotherapy-s-potential
2. Moderna - https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/moderna-sets-sights-common-cold-triple-
attack-against-respiratory-diseases
3. Variants - https://fortune.com/2022/04/29/prior-covid-infections-vaccines-not-help-against-
new-omicron-variants/
4. Vaccines - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00775-
9/fulltext
5. Healthcare - https://www.shrm.org/hr-today/news/all-things-work/pages/curbing-rising-health-
care-costs.aspx
6. Wait times https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/practices/study-highlights-long-wait-times-
canada-under-single-payer-system-does-make-it-a-bad-idea
7. New normal - https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2021/02/18/experts-say-the-new-
normal-in-2025-will-be-far-more-tech-driven-presenting-more-big-challenges/
8. GDP - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-94-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/
9. Food costs - https://globalnews.ca/news/8637869/canadians-changing-food-buying-habit-
survey/
10. Housing bubble - https://nationalinterest.org/blog/politics/experts-warn-brewing-housing-
price-bubble-202099
11. Geopolitical https://www.wardsauto.com/industry-news/do-geopolitical-tensions-increase-
cybersecurity-issues

33. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning, and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies