This presentations look at issues facing Canada's Dairy Industry. The presentation will cover solutions as part of supporting the removal of tariffs

1. CANADA DAIRY INDUSTRY –
SEPTEMBER 10, 2018
PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. OVERVIEW
• This presentation looks at the dairy industry in Canada including government involvement

4. AGENDA
• Dairy Market – Canada
• Subsidies/support for Dairy Production
• Issues at hand

5. MILK PRICES
• High production and low demand for milk related products
• Farmers in some jurisdiction are losing money and looking for government support
• Attacks have begun on Canada as part of tearing down the supply management system
• Systemic issues are not being resolved
• Capital recovery
• Production quotas not being established
• Opening new markets for milk exports
• Government subsidies and bail outs are in place in many countries

6. DAIRY MARKET / CANADA
Government of Canada

7. DAIRY MARKET / CANADA
Government of Canada

8. DAIRY PROCESSING / EMPLOYMENT
Source - http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/pdf/emp_dpm_e.pdf

9. SIZE OF HERD
Source – Government of Canada - http://aimis-simia-cdic-ccil.agr.gc.ca/rp/index-eng.cfm?action=pR&r=219&pdctc=

10. SIZE OF HERD
Source – Government of Canada - http://aimis-simia-cdic-ccil.agr.gc.ca/rp/index-eng.cfm?action=pR&r=219&pdctc=

11. TOP DAIRY PRODUCING COMPANIES
Source - http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/pdf/emp_dpm_e.pdf
• Dairy Farmers of America contributed
to Republican Party election Campaign
-
https://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pac
2pac.php?cycle=2018&cmte=C0000138
8
• USA Subsidies to Dairy “The
calculations include government
expenditures outside of dairy
programs, such as subsidized irrigation
water, nutrition programs and
government loan programs. For
example, the benefits of state and local
irrigation programs are estimated at
$2.1 billion.”
https://www.realagriculture.com/2018
/02/u-s-dairy-subsidies-equal-73-
percent-of-producer-returns-says-new-
report/
• Canada’s government needs to look at
ways to softening the blow when the
tariffs removed including similar
policies of the USA, i.e. tax write-off,
price support, transitioning funding

12. DAIRY MARKET / CANADA
Government of Canada - http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/index_e.php?s1=dff-fcil&s2=imp-exp&s3=bal
North America ($474.7 million), the European
Union ($226.5 million) and Oceania ($93.3
million), together these regions accounted for
88.4% in value of total imports, a 1.6% drop
from 2014. The United States ($474.6 million),
New Zealand ($83.6 million), France ($62.3
million), Italy ($56.3 million), and Switzerland
($46.2 million) were the top country suppliers.
Imports
Exports
North America ($114 million), Asia ($36.2
million) and Africa ($24.2 million), together
represented almost 82.7% in value of total
exports. The United States ($104.2 million),
Egypt ($20.1 million), China (9.9 million),
Mexico ($9.4 million) and Saudi Arabia ($7.3
million) were the top destination countries.

13. DAIRY MARKET / CANADA - 2015
Government of Canada

14. DAIRY MARKET / CANADA
Government of Canada

15. • Dairy Farmers of Canada
Supply Management

16. • Dairy Farmers of Canada
Supply Management

17. DAIRY INDUSTRY COMPARISON
Country Government
Canada • Quota System/Supply Management
• No subsidies
United States • Crop insurance
• Subsidies removed, but bail outs have
happen
New Zealand • No subsidies
• Cooperative to export milk
Australia • Government provides subsidies and
other support

18. TPP AND DAIRY
• The market access provisions in the text are unchanged from the first agreement, which gave TPP countries (including the U.S.) access to the
following share of the domestic market:
• 3.25 percent for dairy
• 2.3 percent for eggs
• 2.1 percent for chicken
• 2 percent for turkey, and
• 1.5 percent for broiler hatching eggs.
• Supply managed producer groups are questioning why Canada agreed to the same terms when the largest economy in the original deal —
the U.S. — is no longer a member.
• “Although the loss of the U.S. represents a loss of approximately 60 percent of the original TPP market GDP, the original concessions to our
domestic dairy market remain,” notes Dairy Farmers of Canada, in a news release calling Tuesday “a somber day for the 221,000 Canadians
that depend on the dairy sector for their livelihood.”
In 2015, after agreeing to the original TPP with the U.S., the Conservative government immediately announced a $4.3 billion set of programs for
the dairy and poultry industries to offset market share lost to imports under TPP and CETA. This money was never approved by the Treasury
Board as the Conservatives lost the federal election two weeks later. (The Liberals have since rolled out a $350 million package for the dairy
sector to soften the impact from CETA.)
Source - https://www.realagriculture.com/2018/01/new-tpp-deal-without-the-u-s-same-concessions-for-canadas-supply-managed-sectors/

19. DONALD TRUMP / CANADA DAIRY INDUSTRY
• In a fiery speech to factory workers in Wisconsin on Tuesday, Trump vowed to "stand up for our dairy
farmers" in the state. The president also called Canada's dairy system a "one-sided deal," saying the
North American Free Trade Agreement rules between Canada and the U.S. were "a complete and total
disaster" overall.
Donald Trump – CBC News – April 19, 2017
Note:
Dairy Producers are lobbying Trump to include Canada’s supply management system as part of NAFTA.

20. BLOG – DAIRY
• “It appears that now Ms. Freeland will make concessions on dairy. I said many times you need to be at the table or you
will have a forced with a deal. Trudeau has no choice but to sign the deal as his government will have little wiggle room to
make changes to new trade agreement. “
• https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-ready-to-give-way-on-dairy-for-nafta-deal/
• https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/canadas-dairy-supply-management-system-has-stood-the-test-of-time-remains-relevant-and-
resolutely-modern-670130113.html
• https://www.intheblack.com/articles/2018/08/01/dairy-industry-peter-skene
•
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/01/holy-cow-how-canadian-dairy-pricing-soured-nafta-
negotiations/?utm_term=.d325e9b7a6e7
•

21. ISSUES AT HAND
• Many countries have protectionism policies to support various industries in their countries.
• Canada imports milk from countries like United States.
• Countries like New Zealand and Australia export much of their milk production. Canada exports little in terms of milk
production.
• USA provides compensation to farmers through price supports and subsidies -
https://www.realagriculture.com/2018/02/u-s-dairy-subsidies-equal-73-percent-of-producer-returns-says-new-report/
• Small business tax change / Canada – Dairy Farmers “Restrictions on income splitting, tax rules for passive income,
succession planning”
• https://www.bdo.ca/en-ca/insights/industries/agriculture/how-the-proposed-tax-changes-will-impact-canadian-farmers/
• Subsidies can mean different things to different people
• Quota system which sets limits and price. Consumers paid to support the market through higher consumer prices
• Free-market system which means you pay what you get through commodity exchanges. Government can provide
direct subsidies and/or other methods like crop insurance to support dairy production
• Transitioning to a free-market system would require transitional moneys. New Zealand offer transitioned money as part of
adjusting their milk production system