PwC - Global Agribusiness - March 2015

Global
agribusiness
www.pwc.com
Monthly commentary from
our Agribusiness experts
around the Globe.
March 2015

Contents
Regional views 2
Did you know? 10
Publications 13
Calendar of events 15
Prices 16
Global Agribusiness contacts 24

Regional views
Overview
With teams around the Globe, this document sets
out to give a flavour of what our local agribusiness
experts are observing in their territories. Food
safety remains a dominant theme globally: in
Australia we discuss contamination of certain
imports from China and the resultant Hepatitis A
concerns. Timely then, that we are helping the
Chinese and New Zealand Government set up a food
safety centre of excellence (in China) to focus on
industry best practice across the agricultural supply
chain. Elsewhere, we note the ongoing desire in
Nigerian and other oil dependant African economies
to increase food security and diversify away from oil
based wealth – a topic we cover in depth in the
special feature on page 8. Finally, in the US we
discuss the ongoing investment in technology for
factory farming, hydroponics, telematics, sensory
integration, and aquaculture. As a reminder, it’s a
snapshot only: do feel free to contact the local
experts to discuss their views in more depth.
Mark James
2 | Global Agribusiness | PwC

Argentina
The United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA) increased its estimates
for Argentine wheat, corn and soybean
harvests, which are now expected to reach
12.5, 23 and 56 m tons respectively.
The increased estimate follows a
worldwide trend of improved production,
which has been dragging international
prices down. It should nevertheless be
positively received by Argentina, as it will
open up the possibility of more exports,
boosting local currency reserves in a
context of reduced trade.
According to the report, the 2014-2015
campaign will see both corn and soybean
gain a million tons of production due to the
current ‘favourable conditions’, while
wheat will produce half a million tons
more, opening up more space for sales
abroad, especially in the case of soybeans.
Recently, Congress has approved an
economic cooperation deal signed with
China. The framework agreement
establishes a legal basis for increased
economic and investments links between
both countries, in order to promote
‘commercial links and investment by public
and private companies to sustain the
economic growth of both countries’.
The deal has raised strong criticism among
the political opposition since it doesn´t
believe it will lead to Argentina selling
more added-value products. Rather, the
belief is that it may deepen the country’s
trade commoditisation. Exports of grains
and oilseeds are expected to increase
instead of products with more added value.
On the other hand China will build giant
hydroelectric dams in the southern
province of Santa Cruz, in Patagonia.
China is already the second largest
destination of Argentine agro-industrial
products, with a share of 10.8 % (US$4.5
bn) in total agro-industrial exports in 2014.
Agriculture products account for 85 %
of total exports to China, reaching
US$1.021 bn.
Mariano Tomatis
Gustavo Barrichi
Australia
Overview
Headlines in Australia have been
dominated by recent events involving
suspected contamination of imported
frozen berries from two processing
facilities in China. As of 26 February,
reports have suggested 18 cases of
hepatitis A being contracted from
consuming the frozen berries. The
‘hep A’ scare has caused a range of debate
on food labelling laws, in particular
source and origin labelling, along with
biosecurity controls and government
testing programs on imported goods.
Foreign Investment
In other news the Australian government
has announced a new threshold for
Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB)
approvals for agricultural land (A$15m)
and agribusinesses (A$55m). The new
review thresholds would not apply to
certain countries that already have free
trade agreements, namely the United
States. Commentary has been broadly
positive about the new thresholds and
investors are viewing the new protocols
as simply another process to be
undertaken. It should be noted since it’s
inception, FIRB has not declined a
purchase of any agricultural land by
foreign investors. These new proposals
come along with a review and public
consultation process announced to
consider strengthening foreign
investment protocols including the
potential for charging approval fees and
a new penalty regime for contraventions.
Craig Heraghty
Brazil
February 2015
The newly appointed Minister of
Agriculture, Livestock and Supply
(MAPA), Katia Abreu has shared her
action plans:
• to double the size of the rural middle
class over the next four years through
technical training and access to
technology in the field;
• to increase exports;
• to improve logistics infrastructure with
the construction of railways and
waterways;
• to open up the agricultural frontier in
the North and Northeastern regions,
especially the MAPITOBA (Maranhão,
Piauí, Tocantins and Bahia);
• to be more responsive to the crisis in the
sugar-energy industry; and
• and finally to promote a dialogue with
the agrarian social movements.
In respect of budget cuts for the
ministry, Minister Abreu said she had
expected a reduction in the budget and
that the year ahead is likely to be
approached with caution by both
producers and market observers.
On expectations for 2015, the National
Society of Agriculture (SNA) expects
that the contribution of agribusiness in
Brazil’s towards trade balance should
fall around 3%. One reason is the
decrease in average prices of exports.
Another challenge for the year is the
water crisis, which could affect various
cultures, such as sugarcane, orange,
coffee, wheat, and other vegetables
and fruit.
Inputs
Expectations are that the resources from
both, the Harvest Plan and the National
Program for Strengthening Family
Agriculture (Pronaf), will be
maintained for the season 2015/16.
Rural credit was also helped by a new
regulation which now allows foreign
banks to accept rural properties in
border areas as a financing guarantee.
Elsewhere, other encouraging news is
that agricultural insurance funds of
approximately US$ 100m, that should
have been paid by the government in
2014, should be released in the short
term, according to Minister Abreu.
In terms of other forms of financing,
agribusiness securities on the BMF &
Bovespa grew 20% yoy in 2014 to US$38
bn, of which about 96% represents
Agribusiness Credit Bills (LCAs).
However, the government is studying
rates to tax LCAs (currently tax free).
PwC | Global Agribusiness | 3

Animal protein: 2014 in review
Beef
Beef prices are expected to remain high
in 2015, due to the low supply of cattle,
enhanced by drought, entrance into the
Chinese market, possible opening of the
US market for fresh beef and reduction
of herds in competitor countries. Also
expected in 2015 is a rise in the number
of confined animals, due to the
combination of high price of beef and
low grain prices.
Poultry
Rabobank forecasts a favorable year for
the Brazilian poultry industry in 2015,
with opportunities to consolidate its
presence in largely unexplored markets
such as Mexico, and increase trade with
Russia. The prices of chicken meat are
likely to remain high vs. last year due to
greater balance between supply and
demand. An increase in beef prices may
also contribute to increased
consumption of chicken meat in the
domestic market. However, in the
international market, competition with
the United States could become intensify
due to increased US poultry production.
Dairy
According to Rabobank, the
concentration of the dairy market in
Brazil is low compared to other Latin
American countries. In the future, the
market is likely to consolidate, creating
opportunities for mergers and
acquisitions. Currently, dairy prices are
declining, given high stock levels and
lower demand (mainly due to the school
holidays), according to the Cepea.
Sugar
Although exports remain weak,
according to the Ministry of
Development, Industry and Foreign
Trade (MDIC), experts predict a
recovery trend in international sugar
prices in the second half of the year,
mainly due to lower production in
Brazil and Thailand, which should
generate a deficit of 2.8 m tonnes on
the world market.
Ethanol
Ethanol prices have already shown signs
of recovery and may increase further. The
main factors contributing to this increase
are an increase in the Social Integration
Program (PIS) and in the Contribution to
Social Security Financing (COFINS) – two
taxes on petrol and diesel prices. These
will be maintained until May 2015, when
the Intervention Contribution on the
Economic Domain (Cide), which was
zeroed since 2012, will return. The
collection of Cide should occur in a
‘piecemeal’ fashion in order to not spark
inflation, but may be raised to $ 0.28 per
litre. Separately, also on the agenda is the
increase in the percentage of ethanol
blended into gasoline which should
increase from 25% to 27%. The increase
has already been approved but still needs
the approval of Dilma Rousseff.
Grains and other crops
Grain production in Brazil in the 2015/16
season is likely to hit a new high of c. 200
m tons, according to the National Supply
Company (Conab). Soy is the dominant
grain, with expected production of
between 94 and 96 m tons. As for wheat
production, one of the cereals most
impacted by climate, Conab expects a
reduction of around one million tons and
nearly 14% drop in productivity. Prices
are also low given high inventories. As for
coffee, the drought in the Southeast
region of Brazil, especially Sao Paulo and
Minas Gerais, damaged the coffee
plantations. Although the product had
rising prices due to the weather, farmers
are not optimistic about the 2015
harvest, and 2015 results may be similar
to 2014.
Ana Malvestio
Ghana
African Union report suggests
Ghana’s cocoa sector lost
almost US$1bn a year in illicit
financial flows
Ghana’s cocoa sector is the world’s
second largest producer after Cote
D’Ivoire. An African Union (AU) Panel
report on the industry – the Mbeki High
Level report – has estimated that illicit
financial flows via trade mispricing cost
US$8.1 billion in the decade 2001-2010
in illicit financial flows. It is thought that
Ghana accounts for 26.4% of all illicit
financial flows from the cocoa sector.
Unusually among African nations,
Ghana has an agricultural trade surplus.
In 2011, total agricultural exports
amounted to US$3bn while imports
amounted to US$1.8bn. Cocoa exports
are the principal reason for this
relatively strong position in contrast to
its peers across the continent.
Richard Ferguson

potentially lead to greater demand for
the unique fibre in the growing US
base-layer clothing and specialty
outdoor clothing market.
The US is likely to become NZ’s leading
wine destination this year, supplanting
the UK in volume and Australia in value.
For the year ended November 2014, NZ
exports were NZ$348m (50.7m litres) to
the US, NZ$360m (51m litres) to
Australia and NZ$332m (53.9m litres) to
the UK. Growth in sales to the US
market is expected to continue, partly
thanks to the falling NZ dollar.
Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc sales in
particular are strong with Californian
marketing brands bringing in bulk wine
and bottling it.
Delegat’s Wine Estate expects its
underlying profit will rise due to
stronger wine sales, but that falls in
asset values will hurt its bottom line,
which it forecast would slump 45% on a
fall in the value of its derivative
instruments. Sales rose by 4% to
1,129,000 cases of wine in the second
half of 2014, and full year expectations
are for continued sales growth and
for operating profit to grow 9% yoy
to NZ$34m.
Livestock Improvement Corporation
(LIC) recorded a 17.7% yoy lift in
revenue in the first half of the 2015
financial year, achieving revenue of
NZ$159m. According to the company,
the result was driven by farmers
continuing to invest in solutions that
improve their productivity. Particularly
high demand was shown for short
gestation genetics, while demand for
India
India recently entered into agreement
with Sri Lanka for cooperation across
multiple sectors, including agriculture.
Both countries signed a MoU towards
bilateral cooperation in agro processing,
agriculture extension, horticulture,
agricultural machinery, training in farm
mechanisation, livestock diseases etc.
This will be facilitated through relevant
institutes from both the countries.
In addition to this, last month saw the
build up to the union budget for the
Indian Economy. The agriculture and
food processing sector was prior to the
main budget. Expectations centred on
measures to improve export
competitiveness, productivity
enhancement, improvement of rural
household and livelihood, better market
and research facilities and many other
such improvements. The government’s
strong commitment towards
improvement of the agriculture sector
was reflected in the finance minister’s
budget speech. Steps towards the
improvement of soil health, irrigation
schemes (USD 900m), rural
infrastructure development, greater
disbursement of farm credit through
banks (USD 1.4 trillion) highlighted the
various agriculture sector reforms.
Further, the government also took a very
innovative step towards improvement of
the agricultural sector by the
introduction of unified National
Agriculture Market for facilitation of
country wide agriculture market trade,
level of intermediation, price stability
and better realisation for the farmers.
Estimates for the winter (Rabi) crop
stands have been revised to 95.8m tons
of Wheat. This estimate is almost at par
with the last years production levels.
With a good rabi season India is looking
at maintaining a strong food grain
production in the year 2015.
Ajay Kakra
New Zealand
The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index
continued to recover in February,
increasing by 20% in the two auctions
during the month, driven by whole milk
powder and anhydrous milk fat. The
GDT index is now up 29.0% since the
December 2014 low adding weight to
the view that prices may have bottomed
after falling by around 50% in 2014.
Dry conditions on the east coast of the
South Island have been declared a
‘medium-scale adverse event’, triggering
Government support for farmers in parts
of Otago, Canterbury and Marlborough.
While most farmers have managed by
destocking and using feed supplies,
Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy
expects that conditions will get tougher
as the seasons change.
PGG Wrightson Wool announced a
multimillion-dollar contract to supply
22.5 micron merino wool from New
Zealand growers to point 6, a United
States-based sock manufacturer. The
contract will see PGG Wrightson Wool
source 150 tonnes per year of 22.5
micron wool from New Zealand
growers. PGG Wrightson Wool’s
Business Development Manager,
Craig Smith said the deal could

DNA parentage testing and information
and automation technology systems
remained strong. In addition, LIC
announced a new strategic partnership
with SCR (Engineers) Ltd that includes a
distribution agreement where SCR,
recently acquired by Allflex Group, will
distribute the co-operative’s Dairy
Automation Limited milking sensors
internationally and LIC will become a
NZ distributor for SCR’s cow
reproduction and health monitoring
system, Heatime. CEO Wayne McNee
said the partnership was part of the
co-operative’s strategy to grow the
business overseas.
Separately, New Zealand apple
production could drop by 6% this year
because of a cool start to spring, despite
the belief that a warm summer has
improved the crop’s quality according to
Pipfruit NZ (a New Zealand pipfruit
industry representative organisation).
Pipfruit NZ expects high export demand
for this year’s crop with about 297,000
tonnes, which will arrive in 70 export
markets within the next few weeks.
Demand, particularly in Asia, has
continued to grow and total plantings
have consequently increased by 2% this
year. While the European market (which
takes about 25% of the export crop),
remains flat for commodity type
varieties (affected by Russian food
import bans), NZ has the advantage of
supplying premium varieties such as
Royal Gala and Braeburn.
Craig Armitage
Nigeria
Kwara state governor outlines
agricultural plans; diversify
from oil, increase food security
Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara
state, in a recent session organised by
the Nigerian Labour Congress and the
Trades Union Congress reinforced the
country’s need to increase its own food
security as well as diversify from
oil-based wealth.
This could now be viewed as
conventional wisdom across many
oil-producing nations in Africa. What
marks a departure is the fact that the
governor not only discussed import
substitution but also the possibility of
the nation becoming a net food exporter.
Nigeria’s current agricultural deficit is in
excess of US$5bn. We discussed the oil
price decline and its impact on the
agribusiness sector across Africa in
detail in the January edition of this
document.
The governor recognised that training
and education were crucial to these
ambitions. Kwara State pioneered the
use of overseas farmers to develop the
local skills base notably through Shonga
Farms, which brought displaced
Zimbabwean farmers to Kwara State to
develop dairy and poultry assets.
Dr. Akinwumi Adesina,
confirmed as presidential
candidate for African
Development Bank
Dr. Adeshina, Nigeria’s Honourable
Minister of Agriculture has been
confirmed as one of seven shortlisted
candidates for the presidency of the
African Development Bank. Dr. Adesina,
previously a Purdue-educated
agricultural economist with the
Rockefeller Foundation, became
Minister of Agriculture in 20101 His
most notable reform was the
implementation of the country’s
Agricultural Transformation Agenda
(ATA) in 2011.
The aim of the ATA is to ‘achieve a
hunger-free Nigeria through an
agricultural sector that drives income
growth, accelerates achievement of food
and nutritional security, generates
employment and transforms Nigeria into
a leading player in global food markets
to grow wealth for millions of farmers’.
Specifically, between 2012 and 2015,
the plan intends to:
• Increase production of cassava by
17mnt, rice by 2mnt and sorghum by
1mn tonnes.
• Create 3.5mn jobs within the five value
chains of rice, cassava, sorghum, cocoa
and cotton.
• Increase farmers’ incomes by US$2bn.
The vision for Nigeria’s sector was
captured by its view on what it would no
longer do. First among these was the
termination of viewing agriculture as a
development project. This has become a
hallmark of much development across
Africa and ought to be seen in a positive
manner. The second was to ensure that
isolated projects would have no place
unless they were part of an overall
strategic focus with clear and
identifiable aims. Finally, it was deemed
essential to prevent the public sector
crowding out the private sector. In other
words, private-sector development and a
market-led approach were crucial to the
success of the ATA.
A key plank of the ATA is to ensure
farmers can access better agricultural
inputs, notably seeds and fertilisers. The
decades-long system of government-
mandated procurement and distribution
of fertilisers became wholly corrupted to
the detriment of both private-sector
providers and local farmers. In the
inauguration of the Earth Institute at
Columbia University in September 2013,
Dr. Adesina, noted how only some 11%
of farmers managed to receive
government-distributed fertilisers.
The initial measures to combat this
fraudulence have been successful. The
launch of the Growth Enhancement
Scheme (GES) provided subsidised
inputs to farmers. The scheme’s success
has largely been helped by another
development, which has transformed
African business landscapes in the last
decade – the expansion, extension and
entrenchment of mobile phone networks
across the continent. Thus, to ensure
that the GES succeeded, it was
supported by another – wholly original
– initiative, the Electronic Wallet
System. This allows farmers to receive
subsidised vouchers for seeds and
fertilisers on their mobile phones.
In 2012 some 1.5mn smallholder
farmers received their vouchers via their
mobile phones. By September 2013, this
figure had increased to some 3.5mn
smallholders. Overall, some 20m people
most likely felt the social impact of this
innovation. The GES system has now
been extended to fisheries, livestock and
mechanisation services.
Richard Ferguson

South Africa
Proposed land ownership bill
In his State of the Nation Address on
Thursday 12 February, President Jacob
Zuma made far reaching
announcements, stating that in future,
foreigners would not be able to own
land, but would have to lease it. This ban
is only aimed at agricultural land and is
included in the Land Holdings Bill, a
new proposed law that is expected to be
enacted in 2015. If the bill is passed,
foreign nationals will be allowed a
long-term lease of agricultural land of
between 30 to 50 years. It won’t apply to
land that is already owned by foreigners
at the time the bill is enacted.
The proposed bill, furthermore, sets a
ceiling on land ownership that restricts
the amount of land that any individual,
regardless of nationality, can own to
12,000 hectares. Should an individual
own land in excess of that amount,
government will purchase and
redistribute the land.
As expected, organised agriculture
responded heavily against the proposed
amendments, stating that it will
negatively impact on investments and
development in the sector. There is still
a great deal of uncertainty on whether
the bill will be passed or not.
Budget 2015
Meanwhile, the 2015 Budget was tabled
in Parliament on 25 February 2015. It
was encouraging to note that agriculture
was identified as one of government’s
‘strategic priorities’ in a bid to speed up
economic growth and employment
creation. However, the budget was vague
on what is meant by its support of
agriculture. It was indicated that there
will be a focus on the revitalisation of the
Land Bank, definitely a good step
forward for the agricultural economy.
However, the impact of other aspects
announced in the budget speech, such as
the review (and possible drop) in the
diesel rebate, the increase in fuel levy
and the increase in electricity prices will
have a bigger negative effect on
agriculture.
Frans Weilbach
USA
Bans on U.S. Poultry Imports
Multiple countries have temporarily
banned U.S. poultry imports due to an
outbreak of bird flu on non-commercial
U.S. farms. China was the most recent
country to ban U.S. poultry, poultry
products, and eggs on January 8, 2015.
A strain of the H5N8 influenza was
found in Oregon, California and
Washington. The American Farm
Bureau and the U.S. Department of
Agriculture have both called out the
decision maintaining exported poultry
is still safe. There are no commercial
birds affected by avian flu outbreaks
anywhere in the U.S. according to
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health
Inspection Service.
Ag Technology
US agribusinesses are continuing to
invest in technology for factory farming,
hydroponics, telematics, sensory
integration, and aquaculture.
• In January 2015, DuPont Pioneer
announced the expansion of Encirca
services to help growers maximise
plant stands and yield potential. The
new service is Yield Stand, which joins
the Encirca Yield Nitrogen
Management Service as a cutting-edge
input management offering for
growers.
• In January 2015, Meridian
information technology company
ArmgaSys acquired agricultural
technology software Envio as well as
the development staff that made the
software. The Envio acquisition
expands ArmgaSys’ agribusiness
technology offerings.
• In February 2015, Wilbur-Ellis Co.
reached an agreement with Planet
Labs to bring satellite imagery to the
AgVerdict software platform, Wilbur-
Ellis’ technology in agricultural data
usage. This enhancement will
significantly improve the delivery of
satellite imagery to a grower, making
the data available in a matter of
minutes rather than days. This new
feature will benefit Wilbur-Ellis
customers by providing imagery
using ‘ultra-compact’ satellites that
will soon scan the planet every
twenty-four hours.
Tom Johnson

The power of two
Oil and its impact on African
agriculture – special feature
The collapse in oil prices in recent months
has significant implications for the
agriculture sector across many African
nations. Much of the ‘Africa rising’
narrative can be attributed to a strong
demand for natural resources and the
corresponding capital flows that have
swollen government coffers or flooded into
the consumer expenditure patterns of a
burgeoning middle class.
Thus 2015 might represent a major
inflection point for a number of African oil
and gas-producing nations such as Nigeria,
Ghana, Angola and Mozambique. In short,
are the exceptional growth rates which has
characterised many resource-rich sub-
Saharan economies in the last two decades
durable in an environment where oil prices
are low and may remain low for the
foreseeable future?
‘Dutch Disease’ is a straightforward
economic concept. In a two-sector
economy there is one booming sector –
almost invariably a natural resource – and
a lagging sector. The former shifts the
exchange rate, and pushes up costs and
lowers returns in the latter. Thus a high oil
price makes the lagging sector – usually
manufacturing or agriculture – less
competitive. The effects were first observed
in the Dutch manufacturing sector in the
aftermath of a large discovery of offshore
natural gas in 1959, hence the name.
This became a common theme: in the
1980s the UK, with its huge discoveries of
North Sea oil and gas, delivered an
exchange rate that was disastrous for an
already moribund manufacturing sector.
The relative success of the service-based
economy of London in recent years
suggests a variant of this model as the
‘crowding out’ effect appeared in many
commentators’ eyes detrimental to the rest
of the country. In short, does a London-
centric exchange rate work for the North of
England and the Celtic nations?
This dual-sector model is particularly
relevant to many emerging economies. In
the absence of highly developed
manufacturing sectors, ‘Dutch Disease’
worked against many agricultural sectors.
Consider the impact of the ‘resource curse’
– perhaps a more common refrain than
‘Dutch Disease’ these days – on the
economic growth trajectory of Ghana in
the 1990s and 2000s. Annual growth rates
averaged almost 5% during this period and
this was achieved while the manufacturing
componentofGDPdeclinedbyalmost4%pa.
The Ghana example indicates the strength
of agriculture GDP growth in both terms of
output and productivity. However, the
discovery of oil in Ghana in recent years
does the country’s other sectors including
agriculture no favours at all. Likewise
Nigeria: ask any Nigerian over a certain age
how relatively advanced the country’s
agriculture sector was in the 1960s in the
early flushes of independence. However,
the discovery of oil in the Delta region –
along with other political and economic
factors – helped to kill off industries such as
palm oil and rice production. The former
industry is now dominated by Malaysian
and Indonesian groups while Nigeria
imports over 3mn tonnes of rice per
annum.
The collapse of oil prices and the
concomitant effect on the exchange rates of
these nations suggests a unique
opportunity for agriculture to redress some
of these imbalances. Africa has a US$35bn
agriculture deficit and Nigeria alone
accounts for some 15% of that deficit.
Exchange-rate devaluations obviously
push up the cost of food to domestic
consumers but, equally, they can also boost
the returns of domestic producers and
create opportunities for exporters. One of
the factors which drove Brazilian and
Argentine agriculture exports was the
1999 and 2001 exchange-rate devaluations
in both countries.
This structural adjustment makes for an
interesting discussion, for sure. However,
what gives this dual-sector model added
impetus is that, among certain oil and
gas-producing nations, it is taking place at
the same time another dual-sector model is
taking effect: the Lewis Dual-Sector
model.
The Lewis Dual-Sector model is named
after its founder Arthur Lewis, a Nobel
Prize winning economist from Trinidad.
The model postulates that as a developing
economy urbanises, the cost of goods
– produced in cities – is held constant while
there is a continuous pool of cheap rural
labour migrating to cities and towns.
Eventually this cost advantage is
terminated when the cheap source of
labour is no longer available. This process
was evident in Japan in the 1960s and
China may have reached what is
commonly referred to as the ‘Lewis
Turning Point’ in recent years.
The key point of this model is that when
this inflection point is reached a labour-
intensive economy must become a
capital-intensive one if growth is to
continue. Equally, it also means that the
rural economy – and, by definition, its
agricultural sector – needs to make the
shift from labour to capital. Again, this is
what happened to the UK and Germany in
the latter half of the 19th century.

It would be folly to assume that Africa’s
agriculture sector has reached anything
resembling its ‘Lewis Turning Point’. Also
the model glosses over the obvious
imbalances that can occur where a readily
available pool of labour remains ‘available’
but cannot add to productivity or output
and essentially is economically
disengaged from the workings of the
model (i.e. horribly exposed to brutal
economic realities that few of us can
imagine).
However, we might be witnessing
something unique: the confluence of the
two models where newly competitive
economies with a pressing need to
diversify their economies and find new
sources of income do so with a cheap
source of labour which is on the point of
becoming more capital intensive.
Of course, this is a 20-year, once-in-a-
generation economic shift. Africa
becoming a more central component of the
global agriculture sector is happening and
it might be a surprisingly rapid shift. On the
eves of their respective independences in
1957 and 1960, Ghana and Nigeria were
considered the economic peers of South
Korea and better placed than the latter to
grow. Yet, within a generation South Korea
had become the world’s 14th biggest
economy.
For sure, there will be some countries who
understand the underlying shifts taking
place within their economies and can
harness the dynamic benefits of these two
dual-sector models while eliminating the
costs associated with both. Some countries
will emerge as spectacular winners while
others will be left wondering what might
have been. Agriculture as a strategic pillar
of economic growth and development? In
an age of capital and technology? Well, if
you read academic and multilateral
descriptions of South Korea’s economic
prospects from the 1960s, they sound not
unlike North Korea now.
Richard Ferguson
Agribusiness Consultant

An extensive global network
• We’re a network of firms in 158
countries with close to 169,000 people
who are committed to delivering
quality in assurance, tax and
advisory services.
A dedicated agribusiness
service centre in Brazil
• Based for almost 40 years in the
northwest region of São Paulo, PwC
Brazil is well known for its expertise in
serving the agribusiness sector. For this
reason, and believing in the growth of
Agribusiness in Brazil, PwC has
expanded its activities in this industry,
creating a dedicated PwC Agribusiness
Excellence Centre in 2007.
• Through this centre, Agribusiness
clients in this industry throughout
Brazil are served in the areas of audit,
tax consulting and business consultancy
by a team of professionals trained and
updated on major issues and industry
trends. We have hired dedicated
agribusiness professionals, such as
agronomists, foresters, veterinarians,
agro-economists, environmental
managers and others, to add value and
help in the understanding of the real
needs of our customers.
• We have also created an Agribusiness
Research and Knowledge Centre, in
order to keep our staff and clients
updated on the main issues and
trends. With a method specially
developed by PwC, analysts study the
technical management of the main
crops in Brazil, perform
environmental, industry and
competitiveness analysis, and also
studies about the main players
operating in each agro-industrial
system analysed. The Agribusiness
Research and Knowledge Centre is
also able to provide market
intelligence services and support our
professionals in evaluating investment
options in the agribusiness industry.
An Agribusiness Service
Centre in Argentina
• Located in Rosario, at the heart of the
Pampas region, PwC Argentina has
opened an Agribusiness Service Centre
to provide professional services to the
agribusiness community. Argentina is a
major player among food producing
countries and agribusiness is an
important strategic contributor to
the economy.
• We believe there is extraordinary
growth potential in the long term for
further developing agricultural
activities. The Agribusiness Service
Centre provides value added services to
our clients combining strong technical
skills with an in-depth industry insights:
• Regional agribusiness clients are better
served by coordinating activities with
the Agribusiness Centre in Ribeirao
Preto, Brazil.
• A Research and Knowledge Centre has
also been developed to keep our
technical staff and clients updated on
main agricultural issues. Specific
sub-industry reports have already been
developed as well as quarterly
agricultural situation reports.
Dedicated agribusiness
practice in MENA
• PwC has the only dedicated
agribusiness practice in the MENA
region among major consultancies. We
offer a full range of advisory services
to food companies, investors and
government agencies. We provide
advice on investment and partnership
strategies, technical and financial
feasibility studies, agricultural and
food security policies, corporate
transformation initiatives, and supply
chain optimisation. We cover a range
of crops and animal food production,
and we can help companies with
market expansion, product portfolio
diversification, and positioning along
the value chain.
Extensive Agribusiness team
in India
• We have a 13 member team based at
New Delhi, Mumbai and Pune. Apart
from working in India, the team
members have experience of working
in Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh,
Tanzania, Ghana and Ethiopia. The
team brings vast experience and
knowledge of the Agricultural
subsectors such as agri-retail, food
processing, agri-marketing, farm
inputs, farm machinery, warehousing
and cold chain infrastructure, agri
banking etc.
• Over a period of time the team has
been engaged with various private,
public and multilateral agencies,
advising on supply chain
management, project management,
value chain assessment, monitoring
and evaluation, business plan and
growth strategy development,
investor/partner search, policy
planning and implementation support,
technical due diligence, and
transaction advisory.
Extensive food security
expertise
• PwC has helped at least four different
governments formulate comprehensive
food security strategies. These have
looked at the key risks and exposures
those countries face with regards to food
security; changing food supply/demand
dynamics locally and globally; issues by
key food commodity type; assessing
current plans to address current issues;
formulation of new initiatives to solve
key food security risks, both in the short
and long term; overall cross-government
coordination and implementation plans.
A key emphasis of the work was making
sure the plans were practical and
involved close alignment between
government and the private sector.
PwC has:
Did you know?

Commodities risk
management expertise
Over the last 4 – 5 years the world has
witnessed a period of sustained energy
and commodity price volatility, whether
this be fuel oil, gas or electricity, metals
such as aluminium, steel or copper, or
agricultural products such as cotton,
wheat or sugar. Commodity price risks
are also being quickly transferred
through the value chain, for example a
company buying plastic will be exposed
to the volatile price of oil.
This shift brings major implications for
businesses across many sectors.
Commodity price volatility is increasingly
affecting the profits, cash flows and share
prices of companies that use or consume
energy or raw materials. It is difficult to
think of a business model that isn’t in
some way exposed to commodity price
volatility – it’s just a matter of how much.
We are seeing a continued trend across
corporates, particularly in the consumer
and retail goods sectors, towards the
implementation of commodity trade
capture, valuation and risk management
systems. These systems can be vital in
ensuring sound controls in an area of
Completed a global
agribusiness review for
New Zealand Trade and
Enterprise
• New Zealand Trade and Enterprise, in
partnership with the Ministry of
Economic Development, the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and the Ministry for
Primary Industries, commissioned PwC
to explore opportunities in key
international markets with a focus on
South America and China. The resulting
agribusiness research provides insight
into New Zealand’s pastoral production
system and related areas of competitive
advantage. The research is part of a
wider programme of work focused on
maximising international opportunities
for companies within the agriculture
industry. The two-part report provides a
comprehensive background analysis
and an executive summary outlining
five areas of opportunity for New
Zealand agribusiness. Segmented by
country, the study looks at production
opportunity and value chain for each of
the seven countries analysed. To learn
more and download copies of the report
visit: https://www.nzte.govt.nz/en/
export/market-research.
high inherent business and reporting risk.
However, they can be complex to
implement, and therefore require careful
selection, project management and
integration into the business processes
and other systems. We have a dedicated
team experienced at doing this.
Efficient tax structure
expertise
Increased competitive pressures and
challenging market environment
continue to force local, regional and
global market players to centralise
certain functions. This applies to
centralised trading and can be used to
plan the tax position of agricultural
groups. PwC can help with the
centralised, cross-border trading and risk
management transactions from a tax
perspective, having particular regard to
transfer pricing (TP) and thin-cap (TC).
PwC has unique experience with respect
to advice on corporate tax compliance,
and assistance in planning tax efficient
trading structures, financing and
transactions. In addition we can help
with audits, dispute resolution and
Advance Priced Agreements to minimise
related tax risks.

Sustainability and climate
change experts
By 2050 the world’s population is
projected have to grow to approximately
9 billion. As competition for agricultural
commodities and inputs intensifies and
our ability to satisfy this demand is
increasingly constrained by economic,
social and environmental factors,
innovative solutions will be required to
ensure that we make better, more
efficient, use of resources and in some
cases find more sustainable alternatives
whilst increasing productivity and
driving economic prosperity. PwC is
working with organisations including
agribusiness, the wider private sector,
governments, NGOs and multilateral
organisations on a range of
sustainability and climate change
related projects. Recent projects include;
climate change risk mapping for soft
agricultural commodity sourcing;
sustainability strategy support for
agribusinesses; evaluating the business
case and socio-economic benefit for
local sourcing of agricultural raw
materials, climate change training for
African agri-businesses, the
development of a methodology and
carbon calculator for understanding
emissions from small holder agriculture
in Africa, and assessments of market
and financial opportunities for climate-
smart agriculture.
Extensive forensic skills and
supply chain experience
We have carried out independent
investigations and advised on
governance improvements in some of
the highest profile reputational crises of
recent years. We believe the benefits of a
robust, independent review of the facts
are considerable. Our specialists help
companies respond decisively – a key
first factor in maintaining trust and
protecting shareholder value. We work
with clients to define and implement
enhanced supply chain risk management
strategies and capabilities. This can
range from conducting supplier risk
assessments and audits, supply chain
and procurement strategy and
organisation redesign, deployment of
automated monitoring technology as
well as crisis management, financial
restructuring and company turnaround,
and administration/liquidation services.
We can:
• Deliver forensic investigations to
identify what may have gone wrong,
the potential consequences, and
provide support in claims
management.
• Perform risk profiling and assessment
of the supply chain to quickly identify
and quantify key sources of risk,
dependency and vulnerability.
• Assess the effectiveness of the control
environment and audit approach and
re-perform audits to provide
assurance as required.
• Deploy risk monitoring solutions to
ensure compliance with agreed
standards.
• Develop robust supply chain risk
management methodology, tools and
capability.
• Redesign supply chain structure,
strategy and organisation to optimise
balance between cost and resilience.
PwC New Zealand assists in
development of a food-safety
joint venture in China
Higher-protein diets and lingering
distrust of domestic food sources in
China have not only increased New
Zealand’s beef and lamb exports, but
have presented further opportunities for
New Zealand to assist with developing
food safety practices.
AsureQuality and PwC New Zealand
signed a collaboration framework
agreement with China Mengniu Dairy
Company and COFCO Corporation to
investigate the development of a China-
New Zealand agribusiness service and
Food Safety Centre of Excellence in China.
AsureQuality is a commercial company,
wholly owned by the New Zealand
government, providing food safety and
biosecurity services globally to the food
and primary production sectors.
The objectives of the joint venture are to
introduce total management and
operational risk management systems to
the Chinese agriculture industry. These
management systems are based upon
the New Zealand agriculture sector
model and form a framework for the
development of industry best practice
across the agricultural supply chain in
China, with a focus on food safety.
The partnership also has the support of
New Zealand Trade and Enterprise
(NZTE) and is the result of extensive
research work commissioned by NZTE
and carried out by PwC in 2012 to
identify international opportunities for
New Zealand’s agribusiness sector. In
addition, agritechnology is a sector of
focus for New Zealand in China, as
outlined in the NZ Inc China Strategy.
For more information, visit
http://www.pwc.co.nz/foodsafety.
A focus on inclusive businesses
in the agricultural sector
An established Nigerian bank seeking to
catalyse a whole new approach to
smallholder farming and rural banking,
a biscuit manufacturer developing a
commercial approach to cassava
farming in Malawi, and a summer
tomatoes contract farming venture led
by a Bangladeshi agribusiness
conglomerate. Over the past three and a
half years a PwC UK led team has
worked with these and other exciting
companies to help them develop
commercially viable business models
that are inclusive of the poor across
Africa and Asia. Results, findings and
lessons from their work on the UK
Business Innovation Facility pilot have
been documented in seven case studies,
with a final report available here
bit.ly/BIFfindings.

Wine Insights – New Zealand
PwC New Zealand produced the NZ
Wine Insights publication as a follow up
from the work undertaken after the
strategic review of New Zealand
winegrowers. The publication comments
on various aspects of New Zealand’s
competitive advantage and provides
insights and observations into the New
Zealand wine industry to inform
members and stakeholders about the
industry’s rapidly changing
environment.
Excerpts from the report include:
• The competitive advantage of
New Zealand wines lies in markets
perceiving New Zealand wine to be of
higher quality and more distinctive in
style than competitors’ wines, which
translates to higher prices for New
Zealand exports.
• The New Zealand wine industry
remains relatively young in its
development compared to many other
wine producing nations. The industry
has experienced rapid growth and
continues to evolve, with substantial
structural change occurring in various
areas. The industry will continue to
develop and evolve, which will present
both opportunities and challenges.
• Initiatives aimed at driving efficiency
gains and cost reductions, while not
impacting quality, should be positive
for the industry. Furthermore
consolidation opportunities remain.
To learn more and download copies of
the report please visit:
http://www.pwc.co.nz/
publications/new-zealand-wine-
industry-insights/
Securing Food Supply Chains
through Adequate Financing
Report presented at the international
summit of cooperatives.
Over the next decades, five major
trends will re-shape the world and
the food sector: population growth
(9.5bn people on Earth in 2050 living
mainly in Africa and Asia), switch in
economic power to the benefit of
emerging markets, accelerating
urbanisation, climate change and
resource scarcity, and technological
breakthrough.
This will put food supply chains under
huge pressure.
Between May and August 2014, we
interviewed a selection of top managers
of food cooperatives all around the
world to get their opinion on the
upcoming challenges for them in such a
context. They told us about ten main
challenges all along the value chain
that we analyse in our report. Ranging
from producing more, differently to
customising products to consumers’
new needs and tackling the price
volatility or waste issues, these
challenges are not specific to
cooperatives.
During our discussions, we have
identified six key levers that top
managers of food cooperatives typically
leverage to take up these challenges:
1. Go bigger; 2. Be more global and
3. More integrated; 4. Build stronger
brands, 5. Be more innovative and 6. Be
more inclusive by opening doors to new
type of partnerships.
A 15 pages executive summary can be
downloaded here:
https://form.pwc.fr/dev/
formulaire_pwc_publication/
formulaire_pwc_publication_1.0.0/
index.php?tmplvarid=57&id=7312
&langview=eng
Please contact:
Ludivine Allardon
+33 1 56 57 10 13
ludivine.allardon@fr.pwc.com
Publications
Brazilian Agribusiness
Report
In Brazil we have recently published a
series of documents outlining the sector
and its characteristics:
• Doing Agribusiness in Brazil: an in
depth look at the agribusiness
industry.
• Agribusiness highlights.
• Agribusiness overview: key numbers
and facts.
PwC involved in major Asia-
Africa Business Forum
The Federation of Indian Chambers of
Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and the
Government of India organised the first
ever Asia-Africa Agri Business Forum
from February 4 – 6, 2014 in New Delhi.
PwC was part of this initiative, as a
knowledge partner. We produced a
paper ‘Unlocking the food belts of Asia
and Africa’ highlighting the potential of
the agricultural sector in both
continents, and the best areas for
collaboration.
Event details
The event was targeted at tapping the
tremendous business opportunities
between Asian and African continents in
the agriculture, agribusiness and
food-processing sectors, and had strong
political support: the Indian President
inaugurated the forum, with agriculture
ministers from many Asian and African
countries attending. Leading international
organisations like African Development
Bank, Asian Development Bank, World
Bank, World food programme,
Department for International
Development (DFID) brought a global
perspective. It provided a unique
business platform for industry leaders,
policy makers, governments and other
important stakeholders to collectively
address the issue of food security and
the opportunities to engage with each
other while looking at the huge potential
for growth, development and business.

CEOs of agribusinesses are also very
positive towards the possibility of
expansion into the rest of Africa. 70%
indicated that they would pursue such
opportunities. Africa is increasingly
becoming a preferred investment
destination and is said to represent the
last frontier in global food and
agricultural markets with its large
percentage of uncultivated fertile land
and sufficient water resources, according
to a recent report issued by the World
Bank. The report calls on governments to
work side-by-side with agribusinesses,
and to link farmers with consumers in an
increasingly urbanised Africa.
The report is available online:
http://www.pwc.co.za/agri-business
PwC Netherlands report on
megatrends affecting
Agribusiness
We discuss five megatrends that heavily
impact each link of the sector’s value
chain, and explore the drivers of this
change and the long term outlook for
the sector. Demographic change leads
to an aging workforce and fewer
students opting for a career in farming
and food engineering. In addition,
consumers spend less and spend
differently – for example on healthier
foods, or on smaller packages for
singles. Accelerating urbanisation
brings expanding cities and farming in
closer proximity, shifting the sector’s
focus in stakeholder management from
ministers to mayors. Cities also face
Publication: Unlocking the Food
Belts of Asia and Africa
Our paper analyses the major agriculture
sub-sectors of both continents in terms of
production, demand and supply, export
potential and processing capability, in
order to identify various business and
investment opportunities. It also
highlights various headwinds to
development, in areas like market policies,
increasing agriculture input accessibility,
access to finance, infrastructure
enhancement, skill development, etc. with
suggestions on how to overcome these
challenges. It also reviews various
successful case studies across different
countries in Asia and Africa which
highlight that good policies, support from
government and a favourable business
environment can promote agri-business.
We have highlighted that forming
partnerships between Asian and African
countries of Asia and Africa could bring
immense opportunities for development
and value creation and transform agri-
business in both continents. We discuss
various partnership models between
Government and Private sector, to bring
efficiency and improvement in key areas
such as skill development, agriculture
research, investment in agriculture and
agricultural operations.
Click here for a link to the document.
Agribusiness Insights Survey
– South Africa
PwC’s annual Agribusiness survey is with
a group of agribusinesses with operations
mainly focused on delivering agricultural
and related services to primary producers.
The aim of the survey is to provide the
insights of business leaders and the
benchmarking of their financial data to
add value to the agricultural industry.
The sector is confident about its growth
prospects over the next few years amidst
a raft of regulations, wage negotiations,
land reform and the global economic
uncertainty. The main reason for growth
expectations as indicated by CEOs is new
joint ventures and strategic alliances.
This sentiment is also echoed in the
Confidence Index of the Agricultural
Business Chamber (Agbiz) and the
Industrial Development Corporation
(IDC). This index indicated a further
increase in the agribusiness confidence
levels in the fourth quarter of 2013.
logistical issues how to bring food in –
and waste out. Technological advances
increased yields and reduced use of
energy and water, while food processing
extended shelf life, reduced waste and
widened variety of products. Logistics
enable year-round availability of fresh
products. Consumers share recipes on
social media – and concerns on food
safety. Resource scarcity contests the
way we produce, source and consume.
Phosphate for fertilisers, energy for
greenhouses, or cocoa for food
manufacturers abundance is not
obvious. Also, the way we ship, store,
sell and dispose food needs ethinking.
The shift in economic power increases
living standards in high-growth markets,
providing opportunities for agrifood
companies to further expand their
non-European footprint.
Click here for a copy of the report
PwC-Publication: Megatrends
in the German Agrifood
Industry
PwC just launched an analysis of five
megatrends – demographic change,
accelerating urbanisation,
technological advances, resource
scarcity and shift in economic power –
with regard to the German Agrifood
industry. The authors concluded that
there are great chances to increase
business outside the European Union as
German food products are famous for
their high quality.

Calendar of events
March
18th – General Mills
April
1st – Monsanto
23rd – The Dow Chemical Company
30th – Bunge Limited
30th – The Mosaic Company
PwC hosts African Agribusiness workshop in Nigeria
PwC hosts African Agribusiness workshop in Nigeria On 21 November, PwC hosted an African Agribusiness workshop in
conjunction with the UK Trade & Investment (UK TI). Held in Lagos, the workshop was well attended by a mixture of
Agribusiness corporates and State Ministers for Finance and Agriculture. We had a lively debate and gave a series of
presentations addressing:
The Global Picture
• Food security
• Urbanisation
• Rise of the SuperFarm
• Where our clients are focussed
Headwinds
• Why farms fail
• Client concerns and how to address them
• Barriers to investment in Nigeria
The way forward
• Risk mitigation and investment models
• The best way to raise capital
Contact Mark James, Richard Ferguson or Shuli Adebolu for further details.

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Global coordinator
Mark James
+44 (0) 7803 858721
mark.d.james@uk.pwc.com
Africa
Richard Ferguson
+44 (0) 7880 827282
richard.ferguson@uk.pwc.com
Argentina
Mariano Tomatis
+ 54 11 4850 4757
mariano.c.tomatis@ar.pwc.com
Gustavo Barrichi
+ 54 341 446 8000
gustavo.h.barrichi@ar.pwc.com
Sebastian Azagra
+54 341 446 8000
sebastian.azagra@ar.pwc.com
Australia
Craig Heraghty
+61 282 661 458
craig.heraghty@au.pwc.com
Brazil
Ana Malvestio
+55 16 2133 6624
ana.malvestio@br.pwc.com
Jose Rezende
+55 11 3674 2279
jose.rezende@br.pwc.com
Daniela Coco
+55 19 3794 5400
daniela.coco@br.pwc.com
Canada
Lori Robidoux
+204 926 2464
lori.j.robidoux@ca.pwc.com
France
Yves Pelle
+ 33 (0) 299 231 705
yves.pelle@fr.pwc.com
Germany, Austria and
Switzerland
Reinhard Vocke
+49 (0) 211 3890 195
reinhard.vocke@strategyand.pwc.com
Sven Massen
+49 (0) 30 88705 876
sven.massen@strategyand.pwc.com
India
Ajay Kakra
+91 124 3306029
ajay.kakra@in.pwc.com
Sunjay VS
+91 124 3306171
sunjay.vs@in.pwc.com
Ireland
Jimmy Maher
+353 (0) 1 792 6326
james.maher@ie.pwc.com
MENA
Mark Webster
+966 11 211 0400 (Ext. 1555)
mark.a.webster@sa.pwc.com
Netherland
Ruud Kok
+31 (0) 887926382
ruud.kok@nl.pwc.com
New Zealand
Craig Armitage
+64 3 374 3052
craig.armitage@nz.pwc.com
Romania
Anca Scurtescu
+40 21 22 53 871
anca.scurtescu@ro.pwc.com
Singapore
Richard Skinner
+65 9823 3771
richard.skinner@sg.pwc.com
South Africa
Frans Weilbach
+27 (21) 815 3204
frans.weilbach@za.pwc.com
Ukraine
Olena Volkova
+38 (0) 56 733 5010
olena.volkova@ua.pwc.com
UK
Mark James
+44 (0) 20 7212 1869
mark.d.james@uk.pwc.com
Stephen Oldfield
+44 (0) 7710 388792
stephen.m.oldfield@uk.pwc.com
Thomas Sengbusch
+44 (0) 7725 069448
thomas.sengbusch@uk.pwc.com
Global Agribusiness contacts
USA
Thomas Johnson
+1 612 596 4846
thomas.r.johnson@us.pwc.com
Commodity treasury
services
Nick James
+44 (0) 20 7212 6550
nicholas.c.james@uk.pwc.com
Tax structuring
Annie Devoy
+44 (0) 20 7212 5572
annie.e.devoy@uk.pwc.com
Szymon Wlazlowski
+44 (0) 20 7212 1889
szymon.wlazlowski@uk.pwc.com
Sustainability and climate
change
Kieron Blakemore
+44 (0) 20 7212 4212
kieron.j.blakemore@uk.pwc.com
Teresa Fabian
+44 (0) 20 7213 8309
teresa.fabian@uk.pwc.com
Supply chain and forensic
investigations
Fran Marwood
+44 (0) 20 7213 4709
fran.marwood@uk.pwc.com
Matt Elkington
+44 (0) 20 7804 1417
matt.elkington@uk.pwc.com
Craig Armitage
+64 3374 3052
craig.armitage@nz.pwc.com
Private Sector and
International Development
Carolin Scramm
+44 7808 105691
carolin.c.schramm@uk.pwc.com
Jack Newnham
+44 7889 521600
jack.g.newnham@uk.pwc.com
Cristina Bortes
+44 7769 941119
cristina.bortes@uk.pwc.com

www.pwc.com
This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained
in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information
contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability,
responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision
based on it.
© 2015 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to the UK member firm, and may sometimes refer to the PwC network. Each member firm
is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.
150305-174122-MJ-OS

PwC - Global Agribusiness - March 2015

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