outline of the rate limiting energy resources for agriculture and animal production

1. Energy and agriculture:Energy and agriculture:
where to from here?where to from here?

2. Europe and Australia
by night – same scale, same brightness

3. World population is increasingWorld population is increasing
rapidly now 6.5 billionrapidly now 6.5 billion
may rise to 10 billionmay rise to 10 billion

4. • Food production has to keep pace withFood production has to keep pace with
populationpopulation
 QuantityQuantity
 Quality, largely a balanced protein ,mineral andQuality, largely a balanced protein ,mineral and
 energy intakeenergy intake

5. Protein availability critical for health and
well being of people. Requirements for
essential amino acids from plant and animal protein

6. Increasing demand for meat and milk [approx 3% /Year in Asia

7. ?

8. All Populations Are Controlled byAll Populations Are Controlled by
Combination of Factors [The 4Ps]Combination of Factors [The 4Ps]..
 PovertyPoverty[Availability and share of[Availability and share of
resources]resources]
 PollutionPollution [Contamination of the[Contamination of the
environment ]environment ]
 PredationPredation [Taking the resources of[Taking the resources of
others to survive]others to survive]
 PestilencePestilence [Overcrowding and insults to[Overcrowding and insults to
the environment allows spread ofthe environment allows spread of
diseasedisease
e.g. AIDS]e.g. AIDS]
IN HUMAN POPULATIONS THE OVERALLIN HUMAN POPULATIONS THE OVERALL
FACTOR ISFACTOR IS POLITICS.POLITICS.Frisch & Leng 2002

9. Human ingenuity has allowed theHuman ingenuity has allowed the
planet to grow to a population of 6.5planet to grow to a population of 6.5
billion possibly rising to 9 billion by:billion possibly rising to 9 billion by:
Increasing the resource base in terms of energy, water,
land and food-Poverty
Controlling local pollution which may have not yet critically polluted
the atmosphere-Pollution
Minimising predation of resources [though there is still
unbalanced uses of resources]-Predation
Containing and overcoming pestilence, although the present disease
pandemics appear to be out of control [HIV infections
and SARS]-Pestilence

10. Climate Change is
For Real !
From 1979 to 2003 there
has been significant
depletion of the Arctic ice
cap as shown by satellite
photography
National Geographic Sept. 2004

15. Just one of the species to become extinct

16. PEAK OIL--Barely recognised or stuck in “ the too
hard basket” by politicians, scientists and world leaders
The potential of global oil production to peak is
already causing shock waves through the world’s
economy and reshaping geopolitics.
This event will precipitate a cascade of
environmental, economic, political and cultural
change for which we are totally unprepared
It has the potential to eclipse global warming
as the driving force for sustainable development

17.
The Exploitation of Oil Has A Typical Bell
Shaped Curve of Depletion. The World Depletion
Curve is Simply The Sum Of All Fields.

18. North Sea Oil has followed the pattern
of
exploitation precisely as predicted by
Hubbert [1956]

19. Mexico’s largest oil field

20. Tasmanian ScallopsSturgeon and Caviar

21. Production ForecastProduction Forecast
0
10
20
30
40
50
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gboe
Conventional Oil Heavy Deepwater Polar NGL Gas Non-Con Gas

22. Data from 1-6-14

23. Oil has largely run out for manyOil has largely run out for many
countries and there is very little to becountries and there is very little to be
discovereddiscovered
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Oilavailability[Gb]
MEGulf
Eurasia
N
America
Latin
America
Africa
W
Europe
Asia
ME
Others
Oil Used Reserves Yet to be found

24. The United States with 2% of World OilThe United States with 2% of World Oil
Reserves Uses 25% of World OilReserves Uses 25% of World Oil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Oil statistics
[ % ]
USA OPEC Rest of the
World
Reserves Production Consumption

25. A major problem is getting your mindA major problem is getting your mind
around the figures.around the figures. This huge find [AustralianThis huge find [Australian
January 2005] 170 million barrel represents 2 daysJanuary 2005] 170 million barrel represents 2 days
of world suppliesof world supplies

26. Summary of World Oil Supplies 1Summary of World Oil Supplies 1
Oil use in the world has increased to around 80 million
barrels/day or 1 billion barrels are used every 12 days
All the major oil fields were discovered long ago
and many have exceeded Peak Production
The discovery of oil has dwindled to small finds.
Global oil production capacity is contracting by
over 1 million barrels each day every year.

27. Summary of World Oil Supplies 2Summary of World Oil Supplies 2
Result: Oil will be a scarce andResult: Oil will be a scarce and
expensive resource in years toexpensive resource in years to
comecome
Demand for oil ,particularly by China, India,
Pakistan and some Latin American countries is
increasing at unprecedented rates. Global demand is
expected to increase by 1 million barrels every day
each year

28. The Greatest Disappearing Act in the World
Oil

29. There is a lot more to
a countries oil reserves
than meets the eye
Few [None?] countries
or companies provide
a transparent picture
of their reserves

30. Lack of transparency of oil reserves,Lack of transparency of oil reserves,
may hide an imminent oil scarcitymay hide an imminent oil scarcity
 The Middle East has 75% of the world’sThe Middle East has 75% of the world’s
remaining oil.remaining oil.
 Ghawar [Saudi Arabia] had 100 billion barrelsGhawar [Saudi Arabia] had 100 billion barrels
of reserves [only 1 field of this size has beenof reserves [only 1 field of this size has been
discovered]discovered]
 Ghawar has been mined, from its beginning, toGhawar has been mined, from its beginning, to
maintain high flow rates by pumping in seamaintain high flow rates by pumping in sea
water to lift the oilwater to lift the oil
 Ghawar is now pumping a mix of 55 % waterGhawar is now pumping a mix of 55 % water
and 45 % oiland 45 % oil
 Experience shows that when the water cut getsExperience shows that when the water cut gets
to 70-80% water, the field collapses much moreto 70-80% water, the field collapses much more
rapidly then indicated by the Hubbert modelrapidly then indicated by the Hubbert model
[[ M C Ruppert[2004] http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/areticle_15732.shtmlM C Ruppert[2004] http://www.yubanet.com/artman/publish/areticle_15732.shtml

32. THE PROBLEM: PEAKING OF WORLDTHE PROBLEM: PEAKING OF WORLD
CONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTIONCONVENTIONAL OIL PRODUCTION
Projection Source
2006-2007 Bakhitari, A.M.S.
2007-2009 Simmons, M.R.
After 2007 Skrebowski, C.
2008 Campbell / ASPO
Before 2009 Deffeyes, K.S.
Before 2010 Goodstein, D.
After 2010 World Energy Council
2010-2020 Laherrere, J.
2016 EIA nominal case
After 2020 CERA
2025 or later Shell
----------------------------------------------------------------
No visible peak Lynch, M.C.
2000
2010
2020
2030
SAIC / MISI
Who do you
believe?

33. Price Shocks - the firstPrice Shocks - the first
signssigns
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
BrentCrudeUS$
Prices rise then crash
with recessions
Shocks as production
capacity limits breached
Five times what
it costs to produceCurrent Brent crude price : US$109.4

34. Who gets hurt if oil becomesWho gets hurt if oil becomes
scarce and prices risescarce and prices rise
 The oil producers who may be invaded for oil securityThe oil producers who may be invaded for oil security
[The oil grab][The oil grab]
Everyone[ particularly the poor]
USA uses 30% of the world’s oil and imports
25% of that from Saudi Arabia will be the worst hit
The underdeveloped and developing countries that will
be denied development
But look at this!

36. Shale oil has filled the gap suggesting that by
the end of the decade Brent prices
are likely to hover within a range
of $80-90/bbl.

37. The end of oil means more
expensive goods

39. In the USA approximately 1400 liters of oilIn the USA approximately 1400 liters of oil
equivalents are expended to feed eachequivalents are expended to feed each
citizen; energy consumption is broken downcitizen; energy consumption is broken down
 31% manufacturing inorganic fertilizers31% manufacturing inorganic fertilizers
 19% operation of field machinery19% operation of field machinery
 16% transportation16% transportation
 13% for irrigation13% for irrigation
 8% raising livestock [not feed lot feed]8% raising livestock [not feed lot feed]
 5% crop drying5% crop drying
 5% pesticide production5% pesticide production
 8% other inputs8% other inputs
Does not include energy costs of packaging, refrigeration,transport to outlets
and energy for cooking

40. Most significant effects ofMost significant effects of
scarce and expensive oil.scarce and expensive oil.
 ..
Gradual, permanent cut-off of fuel for transport and for
industrial machinery. Global trade will greatly decline.
Decline in agricultural production--depends heavily on fertilizers
and chemicals made from oil
Food shortages, increased by competition for food
crops as feedstock for bio-fuels such as vegetable oil
and alcohol
Shortages of 500,000 other goods made from oil.
Therefore, reduction of virtually all business and government
activity. Very serious unemployment

42. Where are the likely most sensitiveWhere are the likely most sensitive
areasareas
 Environment and global warming[greater use ofEnvironment and global warming[greater use of
coal]coal]
 All forms of transportAll forms of transport
 Car makers and subsidiariesCar makers and subsidiaries
 TourismTourism
 Food/goods transportFood/goods transport
 Natural resource movement [coal,ores etc]Natural resource movement [coal,ores etc]
 Wars on terror [USA spends approx $20/barrel forWars on terror [USA spends approx $20/barrel for
protection of its supply]protection of its supply]
 All food producing systemsAll food producing systems
 Social structures Suburbs v City v SelfSocial structures Suburbs v City v Self
Sustaining communitiesSustaining communities

44. Afrique on ligne, 22 December 2009
"A team of Chinese experts arrived here on Monday to start exploration
for oil and gas, official sources told PANA here.
This follows an US$ 8 billion investment agreement the two countries
signed last month covering many sectors of the Zimbabwean
economy, including energy.
Officials said the team would soon start exploration for oil and
gas in the northern part of the country, where early surveys
had indicated some reserves.
In the 1980s, US oil giant Mobil explored for oil in the area,
and found reserve s which it said were not commercially viable.

45. The most serious area may be aThe most serious area may be a
downturn in agriculture and fooddownturn in agriculture and food
production 1production 1
 In the developed countries. Reduced industrial scaleIn the developed countries. Reduced industrial scale
farming with single crop such as corn and soybean.farming with single crop such as corn and soybean.
 Return to permaculture incorporating microbial activitiesReturn to permaculture incorporating microbial activities
for fertilisers and recycling of nutrientsfor fertilisers and recycling of nutrients
[requiring more people in agriculture][requiring more people in agriculture]
 Social restructuring of rural, city and suburbanSocial restructuring of rural, city and suburban
communitiescommunities
 Production of home grown fuels and competition for food,Production of home grown fuels and competition for food,
feed and feedstock for local consumption and exportfeed and feedstock for local consumption and export

46. The need for fuel for cooking could
result in deforestation and erosion
in countries such as Nigeria
Developing countries: down turn
in staples greater need for small
integrated systems dependent
on recycling of nutrients
What happens when another
Rwanda or Dufur[2.4 million
refugees presently without
support] erupts in a future
world with few food reserves?

50. Millions of the World’s Children areMillions of the World’s Children are
UndernourishedUndernourished
9 28 39 53
204
156
142
221
Developed Developing Near East/ N Africa
LatinAmerica/ Caribbean SubSaharan Africa Asia/ Pacific
China I ndia

51. Human populationHuman population
explosion coincided withexplosion coincided with
the increasing availability ofthe increasing availability of
“Cheap Oil”“Cheap Oil”
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Anno Domini
BillionsofPeople
First Oil Well ?

53. World Cereal Stocks [EstimatedWorld Cereal Stocks [Estimated
total carryover of cereals]total carryover of cereals]

54. Use of energy for grain production
"modern" vs "traditional" systems
Source: Pretty 1995
USA (rice)
USA(maize)
UK (wheat)
Philippines (rice)
China (rice)
Latin A(rice)
Bangladesh (rice)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Energy per unit grain, MJ/kg
"Modern"
"Traditional"

55. Trends in the world use ofTrends in the world use of
cereal grain as feed forcereal grain as feed for
livestocklivestock
592
636 660
925
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Feed grain
requirements
[Million MT]
1983 1993 1997 2020
Developed world Developing world Total
Delgado et al 2002

56. World ethanol production by country. USAWorld ethanol production by country. USA
is likely to become the world’s largestis likely to become the world’s largest
producer using maize as the feedstockproducer using maize as the feedstock
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2012
AlcoholProduction[blnlitres]
EU
India
Thailand
China
Cananda
USA
Brazil
Berg C[2003]World biofuel production Int. Sugar J, 1 [1] 5-15

57. Ethanol Inducing Policies areEthanol Inducing Policies are
being applied widely in the worldbeing applied widely in the world

58. How the US Farm policy is seen by PeterHow the US Farm policy is seen by Peter
Nicholson Australian July 31Nicholson Australian July 31stst
20032003

59. Australia’s available energy supply inAustralia’s available energy supply in
years at current production levels.years at current production levels.
Australia is in a particularly dire situation considering the alarmingAustralia is in a particularly dire situation considering the alarming
decline in Australia's self-sufficiency in crude oil, which forecasters saydecline in Australia's self-sufficiency in crude oil, which forecasters say
means we will have to import most of our crude oil and petroleummeans we will have to import most of our crude oil and petroleum
products from overseas by 2008.products from overseas by 2008.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Black coal Natural gas Uranium oil
Yearsofsupply
Commercial demonstrated resources

60. Ruminants have the capacity to use biomass
not used by monogastric animals

61. The future price of grain will favour theThe future price of grain will favour the
ruminant?ruminant?
 Ruminant production is at a low efficiency inRuminant production is at a low efficiency in
most countries with tremendous scope tomost countries with tremendous scope to
improveimprove
 The supply of supplements needed to use theThe supply of supplements needed to use the
biomass will arise from by-products of the feedbiomass will arise from by-products of the feed
and fuel industriesand fuel industries
 Ruminants are multi-purpose for power, foodRuminants are multi-purpose for power, food
productsproducts

62. Transport is 95% dependent on inexpensive oil:
However the infrastructure can still be helpful!!!
70% of oil demand
is for transport in USA
80% in Australia

63. The price of steak from grain fed ruminantsThe price of steak from grain fed ruminants
must be measured in terms of oil costsmust be measured in terms of oil costs
involved in growing the feed, managing andinvolved in growing the feed, managing and
marketing the meatmarketing the meat
I kg of beef requires approximately
5.7 litres of oil. Or to produce this
little beauty at 600kg live weight
1075 litres of oil National Geographic June 2004

64. Permaculture and clean energyPermaculture and clean energy
Composting for fertilizer Mandela urban garden
Worm farm Wind farm

65. Livestock
Biodigestor
Pond
Crops, trees, shrubs
ManureEffluent
Irrigation
Feed
Family
BiogasExcreta
The ecological farm

66. The future resides in capturing solar
energy and harnessing it to fuel our needs
for energy
Solar energy trapped on 1% of the world’s surface is enough

68. Swedish pod-car system - all solar driven

69. Hydrogen economy—A falseHydrogen economy—A false
economyeconomy
To replace UK’s oil burning vehicles
with greener hydrogen powered cars
would require erection of 100,000 wind
turbines or 100 new nuclear power
stations
Source; A an J Oswald, Warrick University www.iom3.org/materialsworld

71. The Sea Current OptionThe Sea Current Option
 A huge source of renewable and sustainable energyA huge source of renewable and sustainable energy
is in the kinetic energy of sea currents.is in the kinetic energy of sea currents.
 There are a number of propeller systems,There are a number of propeller systems,
oscillating vane and aerofoil systemsoscillating vane and aerofoil systems
 These solutions are trying to adapt windThese solutions are trying to adapt wind
technology directly to a dense slow movingtechnology directly to a dense slow moving
fluid.fluid.
 Deflecting Vane Technology is by far theDeflecting Vane Technology is by far the
most efficient. It increases energy densitymost efficient. It increases energy density
upstream from the turbine by a factor of 3upstream from the turbine by a factor of 3
callaghan@eircom.netcallaghan@eircom.net

73. Nuclear power the bridging fuel?Nuclear power the bridging fuel?

74. As the price of oil sky rockets governmentsAs the price of oil sky rockets governments
abandon their nuclear –free resolutionsabandon their nuclear –free resolutions

75. World Uranium ResourcesWorld Uranium Resources
Kazakhstan
15%
Canada
14%
Rest Australia
10%
WMC Australia
35%
South Africa
6%
Nambia
4%
Utbekistan
3%
Russia
2%
Rest of World
11%
Source WMC and Nuclear Energy Agency R Gottliebsen Australian 29-30 Jan 2005

76. • Gas stuck to coal
• Pump water out to reduce water pressure
and release gas
If impermeable pump in water and sand to
Fracture and increase gas flow from coal
Environmental impact??
Coal seam gas---- the answer????

77. Coal seam gas wells Queensland

78. World Energy Generation By FuelWorld Energy Generation By Fuel
Oil
10%
Coal
39%
Gas
15%
Nuclear
16%
Hydro
19%
Other
1%
Source WMC and Nuclear Energy Agency R Gottliebsen Australian 29-30 Jan 2005

79. The way ahead is to buy time byThe way ahead is to buy time by
reducing world consumption ofreducing world consumption of
fuel.fuel.
 Massive education effortMassive education effort
 Allow world prices to rise modestlyAllow world prices to rise modestly
 Develop sustainable farming systemsDevelop sustainable farming systems
maximising the use of microbes andmaximising the use of microbes and
recycling of nutrientsrecycling of nutrients
 Take a cut in standard of livingTake a cut in standard of living
 More fuel efficiency less cars/capita-More fuel efficiency less cars/capita-
more public transportmore public transport
 Massively invest in alternative,Massively invest in alternative,
renewable energy resources now

80. Ironically, there’s also a saying from
oil-rich Saudi Arabia that goes:
"My father rode a camel. I drive a car.
My son flies a jet airplane. His son will
ride a camel."

81. The World Needs To Rapidly Develop
New Energy Sources

82. We are here