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THE ROLE OF THE
DIET AS A KEY TO
FEED THE FUTURE
P O L I T E C N I C O D I M I L A N O
E N V I R O N M E N TA L & L A N D P L A N N I N G E N G I N E E R I N G
W AT E R & F O O D S E C U R I T Y C O U R S E ( A . Y. 1 6 / 1 7 )
M A R I A J O S E A R R E B O L A M O N T E A G U D O
A N D R E S J O S E C U B E R L I
P O OYA N M I R H E I D A R I
THE ROLE OF THE
DIET AS A KEY TO
FEED THE FUTURE
T W O R E P O R T S
1 . M O D E R AT I N G D I E T T O F E E D T H E F U T U R E
( Ky l e f . D a v i s , P a o l o D ’ O d o r i c o , a n d M a r i a C r i s t i n a
R u l l i )
2 . H U M A N A P P R O P I AT I O N O F L A N D F O R F O O D : T H E R O L E
O F D I E T
( Pe t e r A l e x a n d e r, C a l u m B r o w n , A l m u t A r n e t h , J o h n
F i n n i g a n )
SCENARIO BASED OF LAST
REPORTS WE HAVE SEEN:
Population will reach the maximum
in approx. 100 years
SOME SOLUTIONS WHERE
PROPOSSED
• Demand
- Democratic transition model
- Changing diet
• Supply
- Closing gaps in agriculture(efficiency)
- Increase production (i.e more land cultivated)
- MGO
- expanding aquaculture
- reducing waste
- …..
BUT… WHAT HAS BEEN DONE
UNTIL NOW?
WHAT EXTEND HAVE THESE
SOLUTIONS?
IT IS POSSIBLE TO DRIVE THEM
FROM THEORY TO PRACTISE TO
STOP THE INEVITABLE FUTURE?
TRADITIONAL APPROACH:
ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY
FOOD SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY
- Closing yield gaps
- Increase land
DEMAND
FUTURE SCENARIO
FOOD
SYSTEM
Population
growth
Biofuel
demand
waste
Diet
demand
DEMAND?
WHAT CAN BE “?”
Combination of
1.Agricultural intensification
2. Increasing resource use
efficiency and sustanability
3. Reducing food waste
4. Moderating diets
MODERATING DIET TO FEED
THE FUTURE REPORT
Analyse yield gap closures with different scenarios of
diet and biofuel use on meeting current and future
demand
• Considerations of the study:
- Different diets’ requirement
(conversion from plant to animal calories )
- Domestic crop production (self-sufficiency country scale )
- Gap closures for 16 major food crops
- Moderate diet as 3.000kcal/cap/d 20% animal
RESULTS
• SCENARIO 1: year 2003
DEMAND
+3.94 BP
Production
(complete
yield gap
closure)
FOOD
SYSTEM
Population
growth
Biofuel
demand
waste
Diet
demand
RESULTS
• SCENARIO II: year 2030
DEMAND
- 1.23 BP
Production
(complete
yield gap
closure)
FOOD
SYSTEM
Population
growth
Biofuel
demand
waste
Diet
demand
RESULTS
• SCENARIO III: year 2030
DEMAND
- 0.23 BP
Production
(complete
yield gap
closure)
FOOD
SYSTEM
Population
growth
Biofuel
demand
waste
Global
Adequate
Diet
RESULTS
• SCENARIO IV: year 2050
FOOD
SYSTEM
Population
growth
Biofuel
demand
waste
Global
Adequate
Diet
DEMAND
Production
(complet
yield gap
closure)
COMBINATION OF
SOLUTIONS
THE ROLE OF DIET:
DIFFERENCES AND
REQUIREMENTS
W H Y T H E D I E T I S A K E Y P O I N T I N M E E T I N G D E M A N D ?
HUMAN
APPROPRIATION
OF LAND FOR
FOOD
T H E R O L E O F D I E T
INCREASE IN DIETS REQUIRE
LAND AND WATER
HOW PAST AND PRESENT
DEVELOPMENTS IN DIET
IMPACT ON GLOBAL
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE
•Rising in population
•Changing the diet
CHANGING THE DIET
•Increase wealth
•Urbanisation
•Globalising food commodity markets
INCREASING WEALTH
• Consuming commodities that are more
land intensive
• EXAMPLE :
• Meat
• Milk
CHANGING DIETS HAVE HUMAN
HEALTH & ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
• Loss of previous land cover
• Biodiversity loss
• GHG emission ( 10% of anthropogenic CO2
emissions)
• Rising global rates of obesity
• Contributes to associated disease
• EXAMPLE : diabetes and heart attacks
THERE ARE METHODS TO
MEASURETHE IMPACT
•HALF
•NATIONAL LAND FOOTPRINT
•FCR
HALF INDEX
•Expresses the land area required for
the global population to consume a
particular diet
FCR FEED CONVERSION RATIO
• Estimates the animal feed requirement
Express in terms of dry matter of feed per
animal live weight
NATIONAL LAND FOOTPRINTS
CALCULATES
•Based on
domestic
production
•Land displaced
through
international
trade
National land footprint
Same as HALF
IMPORTS
AND
EXPORTS
METHOD
ALLOCATING AREAS FOR
FOOD COMMODITIES
•Three categories of use
•Food for human consumption
•Animal feed
•Non-food related uses
MULTIPLE COMMODITIES
PRODUCE FROM A SINGLE CROP
• Processed oil crop areas were divided equally between the resulting
oil
food and biofuel
• Seed meals or cakes livestock feed
ALLOCATING AREAS FOR
ANIMAL FEED AND PASTURE
MONOGASTRIC
LIVESTOCK
• Poultry – pigs
• Solely from feed
RUMINANT ANIMALS
• Cattle – sheep
• Feed and grazed pasture
IN THE ABSENCE OF
PRODUCTION INTENSIFICATION
• The average energy consumed per capita globally is
11.9 MJ/person/day, while in the USA the average is
16.6 MJ/person/day, i.e. 40% more.Therefore, if the
current global profile commodities remained
unchanged, but the energy consumed increased to
that of the USA, 40% more land would be required
for production,
RESULTS
EXAMPLE
• Total agricultural area in 2011 4484 mha
• Cropland 871 mha
• Animal products 3700 mha( 497 mha for cropland/
3203 mha pasture)
• Remaining cropland was used for biofuels
• HALF index 35.1
DIFFERENCES IN HALF VALUES
IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES
• Example :
• The global adoption of the diet in the USA
would require over 6 times the agricultural
area that adoption of the diet in India, with a
HALF index of 97.7 compared to India’s
HIGHEST AND LOWEST HALF
VALUES
HIGHEST
• New Zealand,Argentina ,
Australia
• 135.8 , 114.9
, 112.2
LOWEST
• Mozambique , Liberia ,
Bangladesh
• Bellow 11.5
THE GLOBAL
AGRICULTURAL
LAND REQUIRED
HAS INCREASED
BY 8.7% DUE TO
DIETARY
CHANGES,
EXAMPLE
• The land required for the diet in Brazil more
than doubled between 1961 and 2011, from 43.5
to 88.2, making it the eleventh highest ranked
country globally in 2011. However, the Chinese
diet’s HALF increased nearly 5-times, from 6.0
in 1961 (the lowest at that period), to 28.6 (but
still below the global average).
DIETARY LAND REQUIREMENT
HAVE BEEN FALLING IN USA , UK
• Falling proportional nutrients from animal
products
• Shift in the mix of animal products consumed
• Even though protein and energy consumption
continue to rise
INCREASE THE USE OF
VEGETAL OILS
• In USA from 9.6% in 1961 to 19.2% by 2011
• Over 55% increase in energy consumed in USA
• Other sweeteners for 26%
• Poultry meat for 18% rise
LOWER HALF IN CHINA
COMPARED TO ITS GLOBAL
VALUES
• High rate of monogastric animal consumption
• Lower land requirement
• Lower feed conversion
RISE IN GLOBAL HALF IS
ALSO MODEST
• Consumption of bovine meat is constant
• Consumption of poultry and pig meat had
substantial rise
• From 1961 to 2011
• Poultry : 399% rise
• Pig : 91% rise
HALF IS: HOW MUCH EARTH
WOULD WE NEED IF WE
ADOPT … DIET
AS A % OF WORLD TOTAL LAND
(13’009 MHA)
SO WHY?S O M E NATIO NS RE Q U IRE
M ORE LA ND THA N OTHE RS
MORE DENSE POPULATION,
LESS LAND FOR CULTIVES
HALF (%) DEPENDS ON…
DENSITY?
HALF (%) DEPENDS ON…
AVAILABLE LAND?
HALF (%) DEPENDS ON…
HECTARES PER PERSON?
•CULTURE
•HISTORY
•CLIMATE
•FARMINGTECHNOLOGIES
•GROSS DOMESTIC PROD.
•INTERNATIONALTRADE
UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL
GRASS-FED
COUNTRIES
HIGH YIELD
COUNTRIES
ESTIMATED
FCR’S
WHAT WE EAT IS MORE
IMPORTANT THAT HOW MUCH
BUT THERE ARE OTHERS FACTORS…
FOOD
INTAKE
WASTE
BIO-
ENERGY
CONSU
MPTION
INEQUALITIESFOOD
INTAKE
FOOD
INTAKE
WASTE
BIO-
ENERGY
CONSU
MPTION
HOW MUCH?WASTE
EXCESS
FOOD
INTAKE
WASTE
BIO-
ENERGY
CONSU
MPTION
COMPETITION FOR LANDBIO-
ENERGY
FOOD
ENERGY
FORESTRY
13’000 MHa (Millions of hectares)
Including snow-covered areas, deserts, urbanised, …)
4’484 MHa
IT’S POSSIBLE TO BRING THE
THEORY TO THE PRACTICE?
ARE WE WILLING TO CHANGE?
TRIVIA
TIM E
I T ’ S
HAVE A LOOK
INTO NATURE
Incisors + Canines = 12
Incisors = 8 à 65%
Canines = 4 à 35%
• 3000 kCal/day @ 20% animal
protein
(according to ‘Moderating Diets…’
paper)
• Reduce waste as much as
possible
(Remember war & scarcity times!)
• Don’t eat exagerately
(Remember “Gluttony” deadly-sin
in Occ. culture)
KEY IS ON BALANCE

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The role of diet in meeting future food demand

  • 1. THE ROLE OF THE DIET AS A KEY TO FEED THE FUTURE P O L I T E C N I C O D I M I L A N O E N V I R O N M E N TA L & L A N D P L A N N I N G E N G I N E E R I N G W AT E R & F O O D S E C U R I T Y C O U R S E ( A . Y. 1 6 / 1 7 ) M A R I A J O S E A R R E B O L A M O N T E A G U D O A N D R E S J O S E C U B E R L I P O OYA N M I R H E I D A R I
  • 2. THE ROLE OF THE DIET AS A KEY TO FEED THE FUTURE T W O R E P O R T S 1 . M O D E R AT I N G D I E T T O F E E D T H E F U T U R E ( Ky l e f . D a v i s , P a o l o D ’ O d o r i c o , a n d M a r i a C r i s t i n a R u l l i ) 2 . H U M A N A P P R O P I AT I O N O F L A N D F O R F O O D : T H E R O L E O F D I E T ( Pe t e r A l e x a n d e r, C a l u m B r o w n , A l m u t A r n e t h , J o h n F i n n i g a n )
  • 3. SCENARIO BASED OF LAST REPORTS WE HAVE SEEN: Population will reach the maximum in approx. 100 years
  • 4. SOME SOLUTIONS WHERE PROPOSSED • Demand - Democratic transition model - Changing diet • Supply - Closing gaps in agriculture(efficiency) - Increase production (i.e more land cultivated) - MGO - expanding aquaculture - reducing waste - …..
  • 5. BUT… WHAT HAS BEEN DONE UNTIL NOW? WHAT EXTEND HAVE THESE SOLUTIONS? IT IS POSSIBLE TO DRIVE THEM FROM THEORY TO PRACTISE TO STOP THE INEVITABLE FUTURE?
  • 6. TRADITIONAL APPROACH: ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY FOOD SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY - Closing yield gaps - Increase land DEMAND
  • 8. WHAT CAN BE “?” Combination of 1.Agricultural intensification 2. Increasing resource use efficiency and sustanability 3. Reducing food waste 4. Moderating diets
  • 9. MODERATING DIET TO FEED THE FUTURE REPORT Analyse yield gap closures with different scenarios of diet and biofuel use on meeting current and future demand • Considerations of the study: - Different diets’ requirement (conversion from plant to animal calories ) - Domestic crop production (self-sufficiency country scale ) - Gap closures for 16 major food crops - Moderate diet as 3.000kcal/cap/d 20% animal
  • 10. RESULTS • SCENARIO 1: year 2003 DEMAND +3.94 BP Production (complete yield gap closure) FOOD SYSTEM Population growth Biofuel demand waste Diet demand
  • 11. RESULTS • SCENARIO II: year 2030 DEMAND - 1.23 BP Production (complete yield gap closure) FOOD SYSTEM Population growth Biofuel demand waste Diet demand
  • 12. RESULTS • SCENARIO III: year 2030 DEMAND - 0.23 BP Production (complete yield gap closure) FOOD SYSTEM Population growth Biofuel demand waste Global Adequate Diet
  • 13. RESULTS • SCENARIO IV: year 2050 FOOD SYSTEM Population growth Biofuel demand waste Global Adequate Diet DEMAND Production (complet yield gap closure) COMBINATION OF SOLUTIONS
  • 14.
  • 15. THE ROLE OF DIET: DIFFERENCES AND REQUIREMENTS W H Y T H E D I E T I S A K E Y P O I N T I N M E E T I N G D E M A N D ?
  • 16. HUMAN APPROPRIATION OF LAND FOR FOOD T H E R O L E O F D I E T
  • 17. INCREASE IN DIETS REQUIRE LAND AND WATER
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. HOW PAST AND PRESENT DEVELOPMENTS IN DIET IMPACT ON GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LAND USE •Rising in population •Changing the diet
  • 21. CHANGING THE DIET •Increase wealth •Urbanisation •Globalising food commodity markets
  • 22. INCREASING WEALTH • Consuming commodities that are more land intensive • EXAMPLE : • Meat • Milk
  • 23. CHANGING DIETS HAVE HUMAN HEALTH & ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS • Loss of previous land cover • Biodiversity loss • GHG emission ( 10% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions) • Rising global rates of obesity • Contributes to associated disease • EXAMPLE : diabetes and heart attacks
  • 24. THERE ARE METHODS TO MEASURETHE IMPACT •HALF •NATIONAL LAND FOOTPRINT •FCR
  • 25. HALF INDEX •Expresses the land area required for the global population to consume a particular diet
  • 26. FCR FEED CONVERSION RATIO • Estimates the animal feed requirement Express in terms of dry matter of feed per animal live weight
  • 27. NATIONAL LAND FOOTPRINTS CALCULATES •Based on domestic production •Land displaced through international trade
  • 28. National land footprint Same as HALF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
  • 30. ALLOCATING AREAS FOR FOOD COMMODITIES •Three categories of use •Food for human consumption •Animal feed •Non-food related uses
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. MULTIPLE COMMODITIES PRODUCE FROM A SINGLE CROP • Processed oil crop areas were divided equally between the resulting oil food and biofuel • Seed meals or cakes livestock feed
  • 34. ALLOCATING AREAS FOR ANIMAL FEED AND PASTURE MONOGASTRIC LIVESTOCK • Poultry – pigs • Solely from feed RUMINANT ANIMALS • Cattle – sheep • Feed and grazed pasture
  • 35. IN THE ABSENCE OF PRODUCTION INTENSIFICATION • The average energy consumed per capita globally is 11.9 MJ/person/day, while in the USA the average is 16.6 MJ/person/day, i.e. 40% more.Therefore, if the current global profile commodities remained unchanged, but the energy consumed increased to that of the USA, 40% more land would be required for production,
  • 37. EXAMPLE • Total agricultural area in 2011 4484 mha • Cropland 871 mha • Animal products 3700 mha( 497 mha for cropland/ 3203 mha pasture) • Remaining cropland was used for biofuels • HALF index 35.1
  • 38. DIFFERENCES IN HALF VALUES IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES • Example : • The global adoption of the diet in the USA would require over 6 times the agricultural area that adoption of the diet in India, with a HALF index of 97.7 compared to India’s
  • 39. HIGHEST AND LOWEST HALF VALUES HIGHEST • New Zealand,Argentina , Australia • 135.8 , 114.9 , 112.2 LOWEST • Mozambique , Liberia , Bangladesh • Bellow 11.5
  • 40.
  • 41. THE GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL LAND REQUIRED HAS INCREASED BY 8.7% DUE TO DIETARY CHANGES,
  • 42. EXAMPLE • The land required for the diet in Brazil more than doubled between 1961 and 2011, from 43.5 to 88.2, making it the eleventh highest ranked country globally in 2011. However, the Chinese diet’s HALF increased nearly 5-times, from 6.0 in 1961 (the lowest at that period), to 28.6 (but still below the global average).
  • 43. DIETARY LAND REQUIREMENT HAVE BEEN FALLING IN USA , UK • Falling proportional nutrients from animal products • Shift in the mix of animal products consumed • Even though protein and energy consumption continue to rise
  • 44. INCREASE THE USE OF VEGETAL OILS • In USA from 9.6% in 1961 to 19.2% by 2011 • Over 55% increase in energy consumed in USA • Other sweeteners for 26% • Poultry meat for 18% rise
  • 45. LOWER HALF IN CHINA COMPARED TO ITS GLOBAL VALUES • High rate of monogastric animal consumption • Lower land requirement • Lower feed conversion
  • 46. RISE IN GLOBAL HALF IS ALSO MODEST • Consumption of bovine meat is constant • Consumption of poultry and pig meat had substantial rise • From 1961 to 2011 • Poultry : 399% rise • Pig : 91% rise
  • 47. HALF IS: HOW MUCH EARTH WOULD WE NEED IF WE ADOPT … DIET AS A % OF WORLD TOTAL LAND (13’009 MHA)
  • 48. SO WHY?S O M E NATIO NS RE Q U IRE M ORE LA ND THA N OTHE RS
  • 49. MORE DENSE POPULATION, LESS LAND FOR CULTIVES
  • 50. HALF (%) DEPENDS ON… DENSITY?
  • 51. HALF (%) DEPENDS ON… AVAILABLE LAND?
  • 52. HALF (%) DEPENDS ON… HECTARES PER PERSON?
  • 54. UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL GRASS-FED COUNTRIES HIGH YIELD COUNTRIES ESTIMATED FCR’S
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57. WHAT WE EAT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAT HOW MUCH BUT THERE ARE OTHERS FACTORS…
  • 60.
  • 61.
  • 62.
  • 65.
  • 66.
  • 68. COMPETITION FOR LANDBIO- ENERGY FOOD ENERGY FORESTRY 13’000 MHa (Millions of hectares) Including snow-covered areas, deserts, urbanised, …) 4’484 MHa
  • 69. IT’S POSSIBLE TO BRING THE THEORY TO THE PRACTICE? ARE WE WILLING TO CHANGE?
  • 71.
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 74.
  • 75.
  • 76.
  • 77.
  • 78.
  • 80. Incisors + Canines = 12 Incisors = 8 à 65% Canines = 4 à 35%
  • 81. • 3000 kCal/day @ 20% animal protein (according to ‘Moderating Diets…’ paper) • Reduce waste as much as possible (Remember war & scarcity times!) • Don’t eat exagerately (Remember “Gluttony” deadly-sin in Occ. culture) KEY IS ON BALANCE

Editor's Notes

  1. If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution and food production and resource depletion continue without any change the limits of growth will be reached in the next 100 years and will lead a collapse where the population and industrialization decline. So there will be a moment not very far away when the population will reach the maximun size allow by the resources.
  2. Some questions come to us
  3. Until now to no constrain population growth, humanity has innovate and adopt new technologies to meet demand and it is predicted to do so increasing the ceiling of resources until the population will stabilizes as an effect of demographic and development drives.
  4. As population growth, change in the diet and the demand of biodiesel is pressuring the global food system we will have to meet higher demands so increasing the production of crop won’t be sufficient to meet the future demand.
  5. There are 4 main solutions and implies supply solutions and also demand solutions.
  6. Calculate what extend fertilizers and irrigation can increase the ability of global crop production to support the world’s population in the mid-century and examine the effect of moderating diet combining with closing yield gap have in meeting future demands
  7. Under the current scenario of waste, diet and biodiesel use for year 2000 having a complete yield gap closure 3.94 billion people aditional to the 5.83 billion people stimated currently can be feeded. And the population in 2030 that is estimated around 8.42 and population in 2050 estimated in 9.55 billion people. But this is not considering the future demand on diet and biodiesel and the rate of the gap closure can occur. This lead to the second scenario ¿what can happen with the estimations for 2030)
  8. Under the current scenario of waste, diet and biodiesel use for year 2000 having a complete yield gap closure 3.94 billion people aditional to the 5.83 billion people stimated currently can be feeded. And the population in 2030 that is estimated around 8.42 and population in 2050 estimated in 9.55 billion people. But this is not considering the future demand on diet and biodiesel and the rate of the gap closure can occur. This lead to the second scenario ¿what can happen with the estimations for 2030)
  9. Under the current scenario of waste, diet and biodiesel use for year 2000 having a complete yield gap closure 3.94 billion people aditional to the 5.83 billion people stimated currently can be feeded. And the population in 2030 that is estimated around 8.42 and population in 2050 estimated in 9.55 billion people. But this is not considering the future demand on diet and biodiesel and the rate of the gap closure can occur. This lead to the second scenario ¿what can happen with the estimations for 2030)
  10. The combination of this two approaches can largely meet demands to mid century and that minimazing the use of crop-based biofuels futher improve the Outlook.
  11. The report also determine the countries which are currently most dependent on imported calories by comparing the numer of people that can be potentially supported by the domestic production. In some cases moderated diets can serve to meet nation’s calorie demand domestically. When diets are adequate globally a greater numer of countries can achive self-suffiency in terms of calorie-production so the result is greater food security globally
  12. GOOD AFTERNOON EVERYBODY. AFTER MY COLLEAGUE TALKED TO YOU ABOUT THE METHODS AND RESULTS IN THIS STUDY, IT’S OBVIOUS THAT WE CAN’T CONTINUE IN THIS TREND OF DEPLETING OUR RESOURCES AND PUTTING IN RISK OUR FOOD SECURITY AS A WHOLE HUMANKIND. NOW WE’RE GOING TO PRESENT SOME CONCLUSSIONS AND INVITE YOU TO A DISCUSSION ABOUT THIS ISSUE WE KNOW, AT THIS POINT, THAT HALF COULD BE INTERPRETATED AS HOW MUCH EARTH WOULD WE NEED IF WE ADOPT THE DIET OF FOR EXAMPLE ITALY, NIGERIA OR MEXICO
  13. FIRSTLY, I’VE ASKED MYSELF: WHY HALF INDEX DIFFER BETWEEN NATIONS SO WIDELY. THE FIRST THING CAME TO MY MIND WAS THIS: I COME FROM ARGENTINA, THAT ALONG WITH AUSTRALIA ARE BOTH IN THE TOP OF THE RANKING FOR LAND USE FOR FOOD PRODUCTION. THOSE COUNTRIES SHARE SOMETHING IN COMMON: LOTS OF LAND, WHERE YOU CAN JUST LET THE CATTLE FEED THEMSELVES, AND VERY LITTLE POPULATION DENSITY. IF SOMEONE IT’S FAMILIARIZED WITH PATAGONIA (SOUTH OF ARGENTINA) THE ROUGH FIGURES SAY THAT THERE IS ONLY ONE PERSON IN A WHOLE SQUARE KILOMETER. IMAGINE A GUY STANDING IN THE MIDDLE OF NOWHERE AND COMPARE WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD SUCH AS JAPAN, INDIA OR HERE IN EUROPE.
  14. SO MY HYPOTHESIS WAS: MORE DENSE POPULATION, LESS LAND FOR CULTIVES, SO LESS HALF INDEX AT THE CONTRARY, LESS DENSITY, MORE LAND, MORE HALF INDEX AFTER THIS, I PUT SOME NUMBERS FROM F.A.O. AND UNITED NATIONS INTO AN EXCEL SPREADSHEET AND FOUND THAT…
  15. ACTUALLY THERE IS NO RELATION BETWEEN THE INDEX AND HOW MUCH POPULATED IS A PIECE OF LAND YOU CAN SEE THE R SQUARED PARAMETER
  16. THEN I THOUGHT, OK, IT WOULD BE CORRELATED THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE LAND TO CULTIVE CROPS, AND SURPRISINGLY, NOR RELATION OBSERVED
  17. FINALLY, SAID ”OK” MAYBE THERE IS A COMBINATION OF HOW CROWDED IS A POPULATION AND HOW MUCH LAND IS AVAILABLE TO AGRICULTURE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE CORRELATION THAN PRECEDENTS, AGAIN WITH A 10% FIT WE CAN’T CONCLUDE ANYTHING
  18. SO IN CONCLUSSION, THERE ARE LOTS OF FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE HALF INDEX WITHIN A COUNTRY, THAT IS HOW MUCH THE WHOLE HUMANITY WOULD NEED IF THEY ADOPT A PARTICULAR DIET. THERE ARE CULTURAL FACTORS, HOW THINGS EVOLVED AMONG TIME –THAT IS HISTORY– DIFFERENT CLIMATES AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST THE AVAILABLE FARMING TECHNOLOGIES, AMONG OTHERS FACTORS. ONE WHICH IS SO IMPORTANT IS THE GDP, OR GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA. WE KNOW BY BENNET’S LAW, THAT MORE WELFARE THERE IS IN A SOCIETY, MORE EAGER FOR MEAT AND DIARY PRODUCTS
  19. ACCORDING TO THE PAPER ITSELF, THERE ARE ALSO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DATA ANALYSIS DUE TO THE IMPLIED ASSUMPTIONS, LIKE GLOBAL AVERAGING OF PARAMETERS. MAIN ARE: COUNTRIES WHICH RELIES IN GRASSLAND AND BEEF PRODUCTION TEND TO HAVE A GREATER INDEX AS COUNTRIES WITH HIGH YIELD AGRICULTURE ARE SHOWN TO HAVE HIGHER LAND APPROPIATION INDEX THAN ITS REAL AGRICULTURAL FOOTPRINT ANOTHER FACT IS THAT FEED CONVERSION RATE OF LIVESTOCK IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE
  20. THESE PICTURES ARE JUST DEPICTING…A TRADITIONAL SET OF INDIAN DISHES, WITH PREDOMINANT RICE AND VEGETABLES.
  21. AND A TYPICAL ARGENTINIAN BARBECUE OR “ASADO”, WHERE ROUGHLY HALF KILO OF BEEF MEAT IS CALCULATED PER PERSON PLUS GRILLED VEGETABLES SIDERS PERSONALLY I THINK WE COULD FIND A GREAT TASTE IN BOTH MEALS, SINCE THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WATER AND LAND FOOTPRINT EACH OTHER
  22. APART FROM THAT, THE CONCLUSSION OF THE STUDY IS THAT WHAT WE EAT IS MORE RELEVANT THAT HOW MUCH IN OTHER WORDS, THE PROFILE OF COMMODITIES USED IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE IN-TAKE QUANTITIES GIVEN THIS FACT, WE ALSO SHOULD CONSIDER NOW OTHER REALLY IMPORTANT FACTORS INVOLVED IN THIS FOOD ISSUE WE’RE PRESENTING
  23. AS WE SEE IN THIS SIMPLIFIED EQUATION, TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY –THUS LAND REQUIRED-, IS A SUM OF THREE COMPONENTS: THE AMOUNT OF FOOD WE TAKE AS HUMANS, ROUGHLY 2300 KCAL/DAY/PERSON THE FOOD THAT WE HARVEST OR PROCESS BUT IS WASTED ALONG THE CHAIN, FROM FARMING TO OVEREATING AND THE LAND WHICH IS DEVOTED TO BIOFUELS PRODUCTION, AN INCREASING TREND NOWADAYS
  24. WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF FOOD WE TAKE AS HUMANS, THE MAIN PROBLEM OUR WORLD IS FACING IS THE INEQUALITIES BETWEEN THOSE WHO CANNOT REACH THE MINIMUM AMOUNT OF ENERGY IN THEIR INTAKE, THEREFORE UNDERNOURISHED; AND THOSE WHO EAT ABOVE THE LINE AND FALL INTO OVERWIGHT GROUP. AS IN THIS INFOGRAPHY FROM BARILLA CENTER FOR FOOD & NUTRITION, BASED ON FAO AND WHO DATA, 36 AND 29 MILLIONS PEOPLE DIE BECAUSE OF LACK OF FOOD AND OBESITY RELATED DESEASES, RESPECTIVELY. TWO ENTIRES COUNTRIES DISAPPEAR EACH YEAR! ANOTHER SHOCKING FIGURE: IN A 7 BILLION POPULATION PLANET, ALMOST 1 IS UNDERNOURISHED AND 1 AND A HALF OVERWEIGHTED
  25. IN THIS MAP, COUNTRIES WITH SERIOUS PREVALENCE OF OBESITY ARE DEPICTED WITH DARK RED.
  26. WHILE IN THIS ONE, DARK ZONES REPRESENT WHICHONES CHILD MALNUTRITION IS A HARM. THESE INCLUDE SUB-SAHARIAN AFRICA AND NORTHERN INDIA. AND IN A LESS DEGREE LATIN AMERICA
  27. A LITTLE PIECE OF CARTOON JUST TO ILLUSTRATE, HOW THE CONCEPT OF HUMAN POVERTY CAN VARY ACROSS SOCIETIES.
  28. CONTINUING WITH OUR ANALYSIS, ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THE AMOUNT OF FOOD WASTE WE PRODUCE
  29. FOOD WASTE IS A NON DESIRABLE CONSEQUENCE OF THE DEGRADABLE NATURE OF ALIMENTS. ALONG THE CYCLE, WE CAN HAVE LOSSES IN THE PRODUCTION STAGE, THE RETAIL CHAIN OR EVEN IN THE CONSUMER SIDE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEVELOPING AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN THIS CONCERN, IS THAT IN THE FIRST ONES, MORE LOSSES ARE ACCOUNTED DUE TO FAILS IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN, WHILE CONSUMER SIDE WASTING IS NEAR TO ZERO. IN THE OTHER HAND, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES -WICH HAVE A HIGH EFFICENCY CHAIN- SHOW MISGUIDED CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR, WITH WASTING RATES AS MUCH AS 40% IN SOME CASES. A NOTE APART IS THAT IN OUR ANALYSIS, WE SHOULD INCLUDE THE PROBLEM OF EATING ABOVE OUR NECESITIES. WE KNOW THAT FAT STORAGE MECHANISM IS EVIDENT BUT AT LOW RATES. SO ANY AMOUNT OF FOOD WE EAT BUT OUR BODY DOESN’T NEED, JUST LET IT AWAY TO THE SEWAGE, AND ALSO IT IS CONSIDERED AS A WASTE OF FOOD AS WE NEEDED TO ASSIGN RESOURCES (WATER, LAND) TO PRODUCE IT. ALL THINGS SAID, STUDIES SAY THAT THE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF FOOD WASTE ARISES TO A THIRD OF TOTAL PRODUCTION.
  30. MORE AND MORE COUNTRIES TAKE NOTICE OF THIS ISSUE AND PERFORM CAMPAIGNS TO SAVE FOOD, AS WE CAN SEE IN THIS USA PROPAGANDA
  31. …OR THIS BRITISH AD ENCOURAGING PEOPLE TO DON’T BE BANANA AND ONLY BUY WHAT YOU NEED WHEN DOING THEIR SHOPPING
  32. THE LAST BUT NOT LESS IMPORTANT FACTOR WE MUST TO CONSIDER, IS THE LAND OCCUPIED BY BIOFUEL PRODUCTION, MAINLY THOSE OF FIRST AND SECOND GENERATION BIOFUELS
  33. WE ACTUALLY SEE A GLOBAL TREND OF COMPETITION FOR LAND. THAT’S SAID, FOR THE 13.000 MILLION HECTARES WE HAVE AS EARTH, INCLUDING SNOW COVERED AND DESERTS, WE HAVE TO MAKE A SMART DISTRIBUTION FOR: FOOD PRODUCTION, BIOFUEL COMMITTED LAND, AND ALSO MAKE A BALANCE WITH THE AMOUNT OF FORESTS WE NEED TO DIMINISH GREENHOUSE EFFECT.
  34. AT THIS POINT, MORELESS WE KNOW THAT: WE NEED TO REVIEW OUR DIETS IN ORDER TO MEET FUTURE DEMAND WHAT WE EAT IS MORE IMPORTANT THAT HOW MUCH AND MALNOURISHMENT, OBESITY, FOOD WASTE AND BIOENERGIES ARE ISSUES ALSO PLAY THEIR ROLE IN THIS MAJOR CONCERN BUT…AT WHICH COST WE ARE PROUD TO CHANGE OUR FATE…IT IS POSSIBLE TO BRING THE THEORY TO THE PRACTICE?
  35. LET’S DO A LITTLE EXPERIMENT ALLTOGETHER… SUPPOSE THAT A POLIMI STAFF COMES TO YOU AND SAY…THAT UNIVERSITY WILL PAY FOR YOUR FOOD, UNTIL THE END OF YOUR MASTERS, BUT WITH A LITTLE CONSTRAINT: YOU HAVE TO CHOOSE ONE AND ONLY ONE OF THE MEALS I WILL SHOW YOU. LET’S GO TO THE GAME…
  36. CREPES, STRAWBERRIES, BLUEBERRIES VEGETABLES SOUP STEMED CARROT BREAD VINEGARDED BEETS
  37. A MORE SPESE SOUP, MAYBE WITH TOMATOS LEMON GRILLED PEPERONIS CEREAL BREAD RICE HERBS SHRIMPS
  38. FATTY AND DELICIOUS COOKIE FRUIT SALAD FRIED CHICKEN WITH KETCHUP SAUCE PEAS MASHED POTATOES
  39. SMASHED POTATEOS BUT WITH SAUSAGES SAUCE “JAM” MAYBE BITTERSWEET CREPS ONION SALAD
  40. BROCOLIES SAULTED PEPERONIS MILKY SAUCE RICE, CHEES, HERBS ONION CARROT SALAD WITH SAUCE
  41. CEREAL BREAD, SALAD, BAKED POTATOES, CHICKEN OR PORK WITH HERBS RICE WITH BEANS
  42. ALREADY MADE YOUR CHOICE? OK, WE GO INTO THE SIMULATOR
  43. SO AFTER THIS LITTLE EXPERIMENT, WE KNOW THAT THE KEY IS IN OUR DIET, AND A SHIFT TOWARDS MORE SUSTAINABLE HABITS ARE ESSENTIAL TO REACH OUR GOALS AS HUMANITY. AFTERWARDS, A COMMON DEBATE IN OUR NOWADAYS SOCIETY IS TWO-SIDED BETWEEN VEGETARIANS AND MEAT DEFENDERS. LET’S SEE WHAT ALBERT EINSTEIN SAID: “LOOK DEEP INTO NATURE, AND THEN YOU WILL UNDERSTAND EVERYTHING BETTER”
  44. SO FOLLOW HIS WORDS AND HAVE A LOOK…
  45. AS HUMAN SPECIES, OMNIVOROUS BY DEFINITION, WE HAVE 12 FRONTAL TEETH, CONSIDERING 8 INCISORS FOR “CRUNCHING” AND TEARING VEGETABLES AND 4 CANINES TO “TEAR” MEAT… IF WE DO THE MATHS, ITS OBVIOUS THAT NATURE DESIGNED US TO EAT 65% VEGETABLES AND 35% MEAT BUT…WHAT THE HELL ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? THIS CONCLUSSION IS OBVIOUSLY WEIRD AND NOT SCIENTIFICAL AT ALL
  46. WE STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT THE KEY IS ON BALANCE A 3000 KCAL PER DAY WITH 20% OF ANIMAL PROTEIN CONSUMPTION, ACCORDING TO THE PAPER PRESENTED BUT ONLY IF WE ARE WISE OF FOOD WASTE ISSUE. WE SHOULD LEARN FROM OUR GRANDPARENTS, WHOSE NO MORE THAN A HUNDRED YEARS AGO (I MEAN HERE IN EUROPE) HAD TO DEAL WITH SEVERE FOOD SHORTAGES DUE TO THE WARS, AND MANAGED TO TAKE ADVANTANGE OF EVERY GRAM OF RAW FOOD. AND FINALLY, PLEASE DON’T EAT EXAGERATELY JUST BECAUSE THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT YOU GET FAT OR THE EXCESS OF FOOD IS DISCARDED. REMEMBER IN OCCIDENTAL CULTURE ONE OF THE DEADLY SINS IS JUST THE GLUTTONY