New base 28 september 2017 energy news issue 1077 by khaled al awadi

Copyright © 2015 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed,
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NewBase Energy News 28 September 2017 - Issue No. 1077 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE Ministry of Energy unveils , Water Security Strategy 2036
WAM/Tariq alfaham ( images by NewBase)
The Ministry of Energy unveiled on Wednesday the UAE Water Security Strategy 2036, which
aims to ensure sustainable access to water during both normal and emergency conditions in line
with local regulations, standards of the World Health Organisation, and the UAE’s vision to
achieve prosperity and sustainability.
The announcement was made at the UAE Annual Government Meetings taking place in Abu
Dhabi. The overall objectives of the strategy are to reduce total demand for water resources by
21 percent, increase the water productivity index to $110 per cubic meter, reduce the water
scarcity index by three degrees, increase the reuse of treated water to 95 percent, and increase
national water storage capacity up to two days.
Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei, Minister of Energy, affirmed, "The UAE Water Security
Strategy 2036 came as a result of consolidated efforts between federal and local water authorities
to explore and define a vision for the water sector in the UAE and to ensure adaptability to future demands
on water resources." He added, "The strategy aims to ensure sustainable water supplies in various
circumstances to meet the needs of the community and the economic prosperity of the UAE."

Al Mazrouei pointed out that the comprehensive, long-term strategy covers all components of the
water supply chain throughout a time frame of twenty years. It focuses on three main programs:
the Water Demand Management Program, the Water Supply Management Program and the
Emergency Production and Distribution Programme.
The strategy also tackles policy development, legislation, water conservation awareness
campaigns, use of advanced technologies, innovation, and building national capabilities in the
field of water security.
"The Water Security Strategy
2036 seeks to reduce average
consumption per capita by half
as well as focus on sustainable
practices, for instance one of its
key aims is increasing the reuse
of treated water to 95 percent,"
Al Mazrouei explained.
The strategy seeks to develop a
storage capacity for the water
supply system that lasts for two
days under normal conditions,
which would be equivalent to a
capacity of 16 days in
emergency situations, and
enough to supply water for more
than 45 days in extreme
emergencies.
Water networks will be able to
provide 91 liters of water per
person per day in cases of
emergency, or 30 liters per person per day in cases of extreme emergencies. The strategy also
includes the establishment of 6 connecting networks between water and electricity entities across
the UAE.
Once implemented, the Water Security Strategy 2036 will achieve savings of AED 74 billion and
reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), associated with water desalination process, by 100
million metric tons.
The long-term strategy addresses the challenges of future water security taking into account a
number of concerns which include the scarcity of freshwater resources, depletion of groundwater,
high water demand, high water consumption per capita and high water losses in the water system
due to efficiencies in both irrigation and usage of treated water.
The Water Security Strategy 2036 seeks to encourage initiatives focusing on water efficiency,
waste reduction and behavioural change. It will also introduce reforms to current water subsidies
that have a negative effect on the sustainable development and the environment.
A number of programmes will be launched to ensure the protection of non-renewable
groundwater, the development of non-traditional and sustainable water sources, increasing the
use of renewable energy in the water sector, and ensuring compliance with water quality
standards. The strategy also takes into account strategic water storage and transport
improvements, as well as prevention of tainting of water supplies as a result of oil pollution.

UAE Fuel prices for October 2017 ( Diesel up 5%, Petrole 5.8%)
NewBase
The per litre prices are Super 98 at Dh2.12, up from Dh2.01 in September; Special 95 at Dh 2.01, up
from Dh1.90; E Plus-91 at Dh1.94, up from Dh1.83. And diesel price has been increased to Dh 2.10
per litre from Dh 20.00 in September . The new prices will come into effect from October 1.
Fuel prices are linked to international crude oil prices. Brent, the global benchmark is currently trading
at around $57.8 per barrel, whereas US crude West Texas Intermediate at $52.00 per barrel.
Up 5% from last month

Libya Oil Output Gains as Country Faces Calls to Join OPEC Cuts
Bloomberg - Salma El Wardany
Libya’s oil output is rising again after disruptions ended at its biggest field, with production
reaching about 950,000 barrels a day even as OPEC and its allied suppliers step up efforts to
contain a global glut.
Output at the North African nation’s Sharara field has recovered to 230,000 barrels a day,
according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because they aren’t
allowed to speak to the media. Libya was pumping 1.05 million barrels a day in August, the person
said, before an armed group closed a pipeline linked to the field and caused Sharara to halt
production for more than two weeks.
Libya, with Africa’s largest crude reserves, is staging a modest recovery as the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries tries with Russia and other producers to rein in a global
oversupply. Iran and the United Arab Emirates are among OPEC members expressing concern
that rising production in Libya and Nigeria, the only OPEC countries exempt from cutting, is
complicating the group’s effort to re-balance the oil market and prop up prices. OPEC agreed in
November to let Libya and Nigeria pump at will due to their internal strife.
While OPEC’s commitment to cutting production to clear the glut is working, the group should
focus on “the situation with Libya and Nigeria,” Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said
Sunday in Tehran. U.A.E. Energy Minister Suhail Al-Mazrouei said Monday in Abu Dhabi that
some members not subject to output cuts may be asked to join the agreement the next time
OPEC meets.
Libya’s crude output has risen sharply over the past year, reaching a four-year high in July, but
production has fluctuated due to several brief shutdowns caused by different groups. The sporadic
halts have hampered the country’s drive to become a stable producer after years of political
upheaval. The country pumped 1.6 million barrels a day before a 2011 revolt sparked fighting
among rival governments and militias vying to control its energy riches.
Libya isn’t planning to join any agreement to curb output until it reaches and maintains its target of
pumping 1.25 million barrels a day by December, two people familiar with the situation said in
July.

Nigeria/Liberia: Canadian COP provides Operations update
Source: COPL
Canadian Overseas Petroleum (COPL), an international oil and gas exploration and development
company focused on offshore West Africa, has provided an operational update on its licences in
offshore Nigeria and Liberia.
Further to the Company's Q2 results, dated 11 August, COPL continues to make encouraging
progress towards securing funds for its highly attractive appraisal and development project at OPL
226, offshore Nigeria. The Company remains confident that it will meet the target to drill an
appraisal well in late 2017 or early 2018 with a subsequent Early Production Scheme being put in
place shortly after.
Additionally, COPL has plans to approach the Government of Liberia with regards to entering into
a new Contract for Block LB-13, offshore Liberia. The current PSC for LB-13 with ExxonMobil and
COPL terminates effective September 25, 2017. However, COPL's technical team sees
opportunity in other areas of Block LB-13 and continues to perform geological and geophysical
analysis in these areas.
Arthur Millholland, President & CEO, commented:
'At present we remain focused on developing our highly attractive oil appraisal and development
project in OPL 226, offshore Nigeria. The initial work program will be to drill an appraisal well at
the NOA-1 oil discovery and bring it into production through an Early Production Scheme. The
drilling of up to three additional similar wells on the NOA Structure would follow on from this. This
phase of the project would precede a full field development.
'COFARCO SAS of Paris, France, and Zeus Capital of London, the two Investment Banks we are
engaged with, specialize in project financing of African energy ventures and we have great
confidence that they will secure the necessary funding. We look forward to updating the market
upon completion of the financing phase of the process.
'We look forward to updating shareholders with the next steps that we take with regards to
evaluating other leads mapped out on block LB-13 and other opportunities we see along the
Liberian continental margin.'

Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, is on the brink of another
cycle of energy industry attacks Tom DiChristopher | @tdichristopher
Analysts are warning that militants could soon wreak havoc on Nigeria's oil industry, plunging the
African petrostate back into a cycle of sabotage.
Nigeria, Africa's largest oil producer, has seen a period of
relative calm in its restive southern delta region over the last
year. Early in 2016, a series of spectacular attacks carried out
by a mysterious group called the Niger Delta Avengers cratered
Nigeria's oil production, exacerbating an economic crunch
triggered by low oil prices.
Nigeria's oil output has rebounded to 1.8 million barrels a day
more quickly than anticipated this year. That has frustrated OPEC's efforts to drain a global crude
glut through coordinated output cuts. A reversal would likely put upward pressure on oil prices.
"It's rather hopeful to say peace in the Niger Delta will hold."-Manji Cheto,
Teneo Intelligence senior vice president for Africa
"Militant groups are running out of patience, the government is unable to deliver on its promises,
the president is a 'lame duck', and the umbrella group negotiating on behalf of the militants shows
signs of disintegration," Malte Liewerscheidt , senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft wrote in a
briefing this month.
"All of this suggests that the current period of ostensible tranquility in the oil-producing Niger Delta
could be over soon as the country heads towards elections in 2019," he said.

Attacks by the Niger Delta Avengers, who want the south to get more of the nation's energy
revenue, caused billions in lost revenue and sidelined hundreds of thousands of barrels per day of
output. The Avengers appear to be cooperating with a group of Niger Delta leaders engaged in
talks with the federal government, but several other militant groups have signaled they've run out
of patience with negotiations.
A group called the Niger Delta Revolutionary Crusaders vowed in July to resume attacks at the end
of September, and various other militants have made similar threats. The same day, the Pan
Niger Delta Forum said it would pull out of talks if the government did not address its list of 16
demands by November.
Manji Cheto, a political risk analyst at Teneo Intelligence, said these developments reaffirm her
view that the peace deal was always temporary at best. There are too many militant groups with
competing interests, and many of PANDEF's demands are too ambitious to achieve in the short
term, she said.
The odds of attacks resuming by year end are low, perhaps 30 percent, according to Cheto. But
the chances will ramp up next year to about 60 percent as campaigning begins for Nigeria's
February, 2019 presidential elections. A major factor will be whether southerners perceive that
Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, who has spearheaded negotiations, is being sidelined, she added.
Eurasia Group, a risk
consultancy, takes a more
sanguine view. It believes
President Muhammadu
Buhari's government will
strive to keep the peace
during the campaign year.
The firm notes that Buhari
has increased payments to
former militants through an
amnesty program and
awarded new security
contracts to militant-linked
firms.
New groups will likely carry
out attacks in the hopes of
securing similar payouts, Eurasia Group says, but it's uncertain if they can carry out sophisticated
attacks similar to strikes by the Niger Delta Avengers and MEND, a group that waged a three-year
campaign in the south.
"While not our base case, it is possible that one such group could acquire the resources to pull off
a major attack that significantly disrupts oil production. But, even in that scenario, the
administration will likely respond promptly with diplomatic overtures, reducing any further impact
on production volumes," Eurasia Group's senior Africa analyst Amaka Anku wrote in a research
note this month.
An outbreak of violence would add to a growing number of risks in OPEC nations. Those include
$3.5 billion in debt payments coming due for Venezuela's beleaguered state oil giant, threats by
President Donald Trump to reimpose sanctions on Iran's energy industry and a growing dispute in
Iraq between the central government and the crude-producing Kurdish region.

Angola:Sparrows Group secures three-year contract with Total
Source: Sparrows Group
Sparrows Group has signed a three-year contract with Total to supply crane maintenance
and engineering services at four of the operator’s assets in Angola.
The agreement will see the company implement planned maintenance routines as well as
delivering all major preventative maintenance, and associated engineering for Total across its
Floating Production Storage Offloading (FPSO) units in Block 17. A total of 14 cranes will be
serviced as part of the work scope.
Sparrows has provided the services since 2010 where prior to that they delivered ad-hoc
maintenance and design scopes related to the field for a number of years. The new deal will
protect existing jobs in both Aberdeen and Angola as the company’s bases in both regions will
work in collaboration on the project.
The maintenance will cover a total of four fields situated within the block including the Girassol,
Dalia, Pazflor and CLOV FPSOs.
With facilities in Talatona and Malonga, Angola is the hub of Sparrows operations in Africa.
Stewart Mitchell, chief executive officer at Sparrows, said:
'Having established a strong track record with Total focused on safety and reliability, the contract
is testament to the high quality services provided by our teams in Aberdeen and Angola and we
look forward to continuing this partnership for years to come.
'Angola continues to be an area of growth for Sparrows. We are experiencing a strong demand in
Africa for companies that can demonstrate high quality knowledge and skills with a focus on
reliability.' Block 17 currently produces around 600,000 barrels of oil per day, a third of Angola’s
overall output.

Chinese coal-fired electricity generation expected to flatten
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017
Coal-fired electricity generation in China, the world’s largest coal consumer, is expected to remain
flat through 2040, according to EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017). Other fuels,
such as renewables, natural gas, and nuclear power, are expected to make up increasing shares
of China’s electricity generation.
Despite declines in coal’s generation share, IEO2017 projects that coal will remain an important
component of China’s energy mix, peaking at nearly 4,400 billion kilowatthours (bkWh) by 2030.
However, as China continues to replace older, less efficient generators with more efficient units,
China’s power sector coal consumption is expected to peak as soon as 2018, at 4,800 million
metric tons.
As part of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, a total of 150 gigawatts (GW) of new coal capacity has
been canceled or postponed until at least 2020. Increasingly strict controls on total coal capacity
and power plant emissions are expected to prompt the retirement of up to 20 GW of older plants
and spur technological upgrades to China’s remaining 1,000 GW of coal power.
Coal remains China’s largest source of electricity, accounting for more than 72% of the nation’s
electricity generation in 2015. In the Reference case of EIA’s long-term international energy
projections, China’s coal share of generation steadily decreases to nearly 50% by 2040, as
generation shares from renewables and nuclear both increase. By 2040, fossil fuels (coal, natural
gas, and petroleum) are still expected to make up most of China’s electricity generation mix.

EIA expects electricity generated from natural gas to grow by 6.5% between 2015 and 2040, with
an addition of 70 GW of natural gas capacity. To support continued development, some energy-
intensive urban areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area and the northeast
region of China will be encouraged to replace coal with natural gas.
Current renewable generation in China is dominated by hydroelectricity, which is the country’s
second-largest source of generation after coal. Wind and solar currently account for relatively
small amounts of generation, at 2.7% and 0.5%, respectively.
However, EIA expects substantial growth over the coming decades, consistent with the targets in
China’s most recent Five-Year Plan, designed to uphold the country’s commitment to the Paris
Agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
In China’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) that it filed as part of the Paris Agreement, the
country expressed its intention to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and increase the share of
energy consumption from non-fossil sources to 20% by 2030.
EIA projects solar capacity to grow to more than 300 GW by 2040, or by more than 6% per year
from 2015 to 2040. Similarly, EIA expects nearly 280 GW of wind capacity to come online
between 2015 and 2040, a growth rate of about 4% per year.
China’s most recent Five-Year Plan also set a target for the addition of 58 GW of nuclear capacity
by 2020. Currently, China has 38 operational nuclear power reactors, with another 19 under
construction. In 2015, China’s nuclear power plants generated an estimated 197 billion
kilowatthours of electricity, representing 3.6% of China’s total net electricity generation.
More information about projected energy consumption in China and other countries is available in
EIA’s International Energy Outlook 2017.

Chinese investment in LNG industry remains high in 2017
LNG worlds ( images by NewBase )
Chinese investment in liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry soared in 2016 and have carried over
into 2017 which is expected to be one of the best years on record.
A wave of Chinese money has flowed into foreign liquefaction project financings, playing a key
role in helping these schemes move ahead in a challenging investment climate characterized by
low gas prices and plentiful supplies, according to the consultancy Poten & Partners.
Funding for liquefaction projects has primarily supported China’s attempts to source gas and
diversify its supplier base. The amount of funding supplied by Chinese lenders to the LNG sector
in 2016 is a record, surpassing recent years. In 2015 around $750 million was provided by two
Chinese banks, ICBC and Bank of China.
In 2014 ICBC was the sole Chinese bank providing support to this sector, loaning $85 million to
Freeport LNG train 2, the consultancy notes. While the amount of debt provided this year by
Chinese companies to liquefaction projects will fall short of 2016’s record, it will still be substantial,
surpassing 2015 funding.
The amount of Chinese lending for liquefaction projects this year looks set to grow, with Equatorial
Guinea’s Fortuna FLNG project sponsors primed to make a final investment decision.
Poten & partners said that Chinese sale and leaseback companies are increasingly financing LNG
vessels and funding for 2017 is expected to surpass levels in recent years. It had already reached

$1.35 billion in the first half of this year, compared with $360 million for all of 2016 and $960
million for 2015.
Since China’s LNG demand has driven Chinese entities to provide debt and equity, its state
energy policy will determine whether China will continue to fund the liquefaction sector. The
National Energy Administration’s (NEA) target for natural gas in China’s fuel mix is 8.3 percent-10
percent by 2020, up from 5.9 percent in 2015.
State-owned and private companies are planning more LNG import terminal capacity. They are
looking at increasing their long-term LNG supply by as much as 10 MMt/y in 2020-2025. China’s
imports are expected to reach 31 MMt/y this year and increase to 48 MMt/y by 2020, Poten &
Partners said.
China Has Boosted Both Imports and Production of Natural Gas
Imports and output of natural gas rose more than twice the expected amount this year in China
Imports and domestic output of natural gas are outpacing government projections in China as the
country works toward a goal of making the fuel 10% of its energy consumption by 2020. Official
data for domestic production and imports shows that the total amount of natural gas available in
China in the first five months of the year was approximately 72.0 million tons, up 5.9% for the
same time frame last year.
The increases are more than double the annual rate needed in order for China to increase natural
gas’ share of energy consumption from its current 5.9% to 10% by the end of the decade, reports
Reuters. LNG has been the main source of the increased imports, with imports of the liquefied
gas up 38.4% in the first five months of 2017 while pipeline imports dropped 4.4%. LNG is
becoming a more competitive option for imports as the gas becomes less costly. Customs data
from May shows that the average landed cost of LNG was $7.28 per MMBtu.
This is higher than the $5.25 per MMBtu of pipeline imports, however, the customs price excludes
the cost of internal pipeline and distribution, meaning imports fromCentrall Asia still have to pay to
get from the border to demand centers. LNG, on the other hand, is consumed near where it is
offloaded and re-gasified.
Strongnaturalgas demand abroad can help support jobs in the United States
Natural gas is becoming an increasingly popular fuel source for power generation, offering a
cleaner alternative to coal-fired electricity generation. Natural gas demand is expected to grow
faster than both oil and coal through 2035, according to BP’s (ticker: BP) annual outlook. The
main centers of that growth will be China, the Middle East and the U.S. as all three look to
significantly grow their use natural gas for power generation.
The increased demand in the U.S., and the increasing thirst for more natural gas abroad, could
create as many as 2 million jobs in the United States by 2040, according to the American
Petroleum Institute.
The natural gas industry, along with related economic activity, now employs four million
Americans from drilling to pipeline construction. The report, based on projections from the Energy
Information Administration, also predicted an additional $1 billion in cost savings for the American
consumer from lower energy prices and cheaper production of petrochemical products.
Some political obstacles remain, however, with protectionist trade talk making up a major part of
President Donald Trump’s campaign. API Chief Economist Erica Bowman said the group has
been talking to President Trump’s administration about the benefits of open borders for natural
gas producers looking to export.

US The Permian Basin Still Has an Awful Lot of Oil
By Joe Nocera
I spent the weekend in Austin at the University of Texas, where I drove past what is arguably the
most important oil well in American history, the Santa Rita No. 1.
There are those who would bestow that title on the famous East Texas gusher at Spindletop,
which spurred the rise of the oil industry in 1901. The Santa Rita No. 1 first hit oil 22 years later,
after two arduous years of drilling, in Reagan County in West Texas.
It proved that oil existed the Permian Basin, a 300-mile expanse stretching to southeastern New
Mexico, and including Midland, Odessa and Fort Stockton in Texas, and Carlsbad, New Mexico.
The Permian Basin quickly became the most important source of U.S. oil production.
Incredibly, that is as true today as it was in the Permian’s wildcatting heyday, which was roughly
from the 1940s to the early 1970s. According to a new study by IHS Markit, a consulting and
research firm, the Permian Basin today has between 60 billion and 70 billion barrels of
recoverable oil, worth $3.3 trillion at current prices, as Bloomberg’s Joe Carroll noted in a story on
Monday.
To put that in context, since 1923 more than 30 billion barrels of oil have been extracted from the
Permian Basin. Yet according to IHS-Markit, it still contains more than twice as much recoverable
oil as has been drilled over the last 94 years. Indeed, the greatest oil field of them all, the Ghawar
field in Saudi Arabia, is estimated to have the same amount of recoverable oil—70 billion
barrels—as the high end of IHS-Markit’s estimate.
Even veterans of the oil business are amazed. “How can we have been drilling in the Permian
Basin for 100 years and then find out it has twice as much as we thought?” the energy magnate T.
Boone Pickens has been known to say. Of course the answer, as Pickens well knows, is the
combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing—or fracking—which can extract oil from
shale formations that a vertical well can’t get at.

The Permian Basin was a latecomer to the shale revolution. The Barnett Shale formation, in
northeast Texas, which was first fracked by fracking pioneer George Mitchell in the early 1990s,
and the Marcellus Formation in Pennsylvania, were both “hot plays” by 2008, while the Permian
Basin was just getting started.
Partly this was because fracking and horizontal drilling were seen primarily as a way to extract
natural gas, and though the Permian Basin contains its share of gas, it is mainly an oil reservoir. It
was overlooked for a long time.
But by 2010, a handful of oilmen, after numerous experiments with various fracking
formulas, figured out how to crack open the shale to get at the oil. By 2013 everyone in the oil
business was racing to the Permian Basin.
Pioneer Natural Resources has 690,000 acres in what’s called the Spraberry/Wolfcamp play, with
556 million barrels of proven reserves. ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips—
they’re all there. Just the other day, Chevron said its exploration budget for the Permian Basin in
2018 would be $4 billion.
You can see the results from this chart. The first Permian Basin oil boom, using traditional drilling
techniques, peaked in 1973, when 763 million barrels of oil were produced. Oil production then
steadily declined until 2006, when it bottomed out at 309 million barrels. But just a decade later, it
had reached 740 million barrels again. It will almost surely top 1 billion barrels a year fairly soon.
On the Way (Back) Up
Barrels of Permian Basin oil produced per year
One more startling fact. According to John Roberts, one of the co-authors of the IHS Markit study,
there have been close to 450,000 vertical wells drilled since Santa Rita No. 1. But there have
been only been around 20,000 horizonal wells drilled. “A vertical well has a range of 45 feet,” he
said. “A horizontal well can have a range of 9,000 feet or more. It’s the equivalent of 2,000 vertical
wells.”
I know there are plenty of people who wish the oil industry hadn’t invented the techniques that make it
possible to recover so much more oil than we ever thought possible. They believe that the more
recoverable oil the U.S. has, the less incentive we’ll have to move to renewable fuels.
But I think we should be thankful that that there is so much more oil in the Permian Basin than anyone ever
thought. It means we can continue to lessen our dependence on Saudi Arabia. It means that the price at
the pump will stay low because there is so much supply. And for all the advances in electric cars and other
renewable efforts, it’s going to be a long time before we will fully be able to wean ourselves from oil.

NewBase September 28 - 2017 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Brent slips from 2015 peaks, U.S. crude up on inventory draw
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices fell on Thursday, with U.S. crude giving up some of the previous session's gains that
were driven by a surprise fall in inventories, while Brent moved further away from recent 26-
month highs.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) dipped 7 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $52.06 a barrel by
0533 GMT after rising 26 cents in the previous session to just below 5-month highs. Brent was
down 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $57.79 a barrel, slipping further away from Tuesday's more
than two-year high of $59.49 following a near 1 percent fall in the previous session.
U.S. crude inventories fell 1.8 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Department said on
Wednesday, versus forecasts for a 3.4 million-barrel build. The crude draw provided some
support to oil prices as refiners came back online following Hurricane Harvey last month, but
gasoline stocks surprisingly rose and stocks of distillates were down by less than anticipated.
"Things are looking a little more optimistic, the most optimistic I have seen seen in the last couple
of years," le Brun said. "Certainly a WTI price above $60 a barrel by the end of the year is not a
crazy belief."
The International Energy Agency earlier this month raised its 2017 global oil demand growth
estimate to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.5 million bpd, pointing to stronger-than-
expected demand growth in the United States and Europe.
Still, U.S. crude production rose to 9.55 million bpd last week, higher than before Harvey hit the
Gulf Coast. With Brent futures commanding their highest premium over WTI in more than two
years, U.S. crude has become increasingly competitive in foreign markets and exports hit a
record 1.5 million bpd last week.
Oil price special
coverage

That complicates efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting countries and other major
producers to push oil higher through output curbs, as every hike in price encourages more U.S.
production.
Technical Analysis
The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, Tuesday’s closing price reversal
top has put the market in a holding pattern.
A trade through $52.43 will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. This
could trigger a further rally into the May 25 main top at $52.62. A move through $51.43 will confirm
the closing price reversal top. This won’t change the main trend to down, but it could lead to a 2 to
3 day correction or a retracement of the last rally.
The main range is $47.59 to $52.43. If there is a correction then $50.01 to $49.44 will become the
primary downside target.
Forecast
WTI crude oil is currently trading between support and resistance. This means that the next move
will be guided by trader momentum. Upside momentum will drive the market into $52.43 then
$52.62. Overtaking $52.62 will likely lead to a test of the long-term downtrending angle at $53.11.
Downside momentum will likely take crude oil into a long-term downtrending angle at $51.27,
followed by an uptrending angle at $50.89. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of $50.89,
but if it fails then watch for an acceleration to the downside.

NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release September 28-2017
Russia climbs higher in global competitiveness ranking
https://www.rt.com/business/404748-russia-wef-competitiveness-index/Get short URL
In just one year, Russia has improved its position on the global competitiveness index (GCI); by
five notches to 38th place in a list of 137 countries.
The improvement was mostly driven by the macroeconomic environment, in which Russia gained
38 positions to 53rd place globally, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF) report which
noted the country’s strong rebound from the 2015–16 recession.
WEF experts gave a good assessment of Russian health care and primary/secondary education,
along with the market size and professional staff training.
“Weak links continue to include the financial market (107th), in particular, the banking sector,
along with aspects of institutional quality such as property rights (106th), judicial independence
(90th), and corruption, which remains one of the most problematic factors for doing
business,” said WEF.

The report also said the Russian economy remains highly dependent on mineral exports.
“Russia has passed new laws to increase the minimum wage and protect temporary employment,
which have lowered labor market flexibility; however, this may have an overall beneficial effect by
restoring domestic purchasing power, which had been hit by inflation and the weak ruble,” said the
report.
The global competitiveness index is calculated using 113 economic indicators covering 12
categories. The measure takes into account such factors as institutions, infrastructure,
macroeconomic environment, health, education and training, goods market efficiency and labor
market, financial market development, and innovations.
Switzerland was ranked as the most competitive economy in the world for the ninth straight year.
It is followed by the United States, Singapore, the Netherlands, and Germany. The top ten list
included Hong Kong, Sweden, Britain, Japan, and Finland.
"Countries preparing for the Fourth Industrial Revolution and simultaneously strengthening their
political, economic and social systems will be the winners in the competitive race of the
future," said WEF founder and Executive Chairman Klaus Schwab.
45

NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
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Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME member since 1995
Hawk Energy member 2010
Mobile: +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 27 years of experience in
the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy
consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE
operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations
Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility &
gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great
experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering &
regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, &
compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the
local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the
UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels.
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase September 2017 K. Al Awadi

New base 28 september 2017 energy news issue 1077 by khaled al awadi

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